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tsptalk
07-07-2004, 01:07 AM
I haven't exactly been setting the world on fire with my market calls lately, so please consider your goals, risk tolerance and pain threshold before joining me on this one...

Before the noon ET deadline on Wednesday, I will initiate a transfer to the following allocation:

50% S, 50% I fund.

To read more about it, please see today's comments (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html).

Tom

Rolo
07-07-2004, 11:09 AM
hehe...I loved your comments today...always entertaining and informative...on markets and personal choices...much wisdom there. "Knowing when you are wrong and acting upon it is better than being stubborn." -- I, myselfhave recently come to terms with that very important concept...thanks for the reinforcement!

Abandoning C for now? I take it the rationale is that small-caps will benefit more on short spikes?

puertorico
07-07-2004, 01:33 PM
I was yesterday 20-C 70-s 10-i

big losses S fund beat me to dead:s

A least for today 30-s 70-I ,lets hope the dolar is down

over the euro AND I FUND CAN put me back on the game:D

I DID the move to i-fund was risky but I thing was

a good lucky move:cool:

puertorico
07-07-2004, 01:35 PM
yEssss look like the Euro is very up today

that's good for I FUND.:^

tsptalk
07-07-2004, 03:15 PM
puertorico wrote:
I was yesterday 20-C 70-s 10-i

big losses S fund beat me to dead:s

A least for today 30-s 70-I ,lets hope the dolar is down

over the euro AND I FUND CAN put me back on the game:D

I DID the move to i-fund was risky but I thing was

a good lucky move:cool:


Nice call. I hope I'm not a day late on the I fund.

Rolo
07-07-2004, 03:28 PM
tsptalk wrote:
I hope I'm not a day late on the I fund.
Me too! But, "better late than never" probably applies.

I'm just following the TSPTalk herd for a while. :D

puertorico
07-08-2004, 08:25 AM
:?Yesterday was not that good :?

Today

s&p fut. nasd fut. dow fut. will open low

:s"red zone":s

:Dhope during the day become greeeeen:D

tsptalk
07-08-2004, 09:21 AM
Rolo wrote:
Abandoning C for now? I take it the rationale is that small-caps will benefit more on short spikes?

Sorry Rolo, I didn't see your post until today. Yes, I am basically getting aggressivepreparing for any rebound, which I was hoping for today. But Yahoo!, who should change their names to Yikes!, put a damper on that so far this morning. I'm still hoping bargain hunters swoop in before the close.

Rolo
07-08-2004, 02:52 PM
tsptalk wrote:
I'm still hoping bargain hunters swoop in before the close.

Ah, cool...I was thinking that, too....seeing this steep pull-back as buying opportunities for value-type investors and, more importantly, for institutional investors.

lovegardening
07-08-2004, 03:21 PM
:shock::( I just dont know what to say after seeing today's market returns.....WHAT ARE WE TO DO.Is there any hope

Rolo
07-08-2004, 04:16 PM
heh, ya, somebody bled all over my Scottrade today. :shock:

My oil tankers are still unsinkable though!

At least this was a good buy point for my little bit of G that is getting moved today. (How's that for a soother, heh heh.)

Frizz B.
07-08-2004, 04:28 PM
These are the same conversations we heard the last time the market went belly up. Then all of a sudden it turned around and came back. Just give it time and things will get back to the future. The only part is when to figure the market will say enough and keep on climbing to the predictions that were made in the begginning of the year. A rise of 10 to 12 % for the year. Hang in there. :dude:

Pete1
07-08-2004, 07:57 PM
Don't bail yet, especially if you are 100% invested in stocks. Be patient.

mrhaslam
07-08-2004, 10:47 PM
Good evening everyone. I am new to the websiteandI just wanted to introduce myself. I am mrhaslam:^. I have been enrolled in TSP since December 03. I will be asking questions, and hopefully one of these days in the near future, I will be as knowledgeable as all of you. Oh yeah, I am currently allocated 30% F, 10% C, 30% S and 30% I. The only reason I can gather that I have made such a move is because I guess it is pretty balanced. Please let me know what you think.

tsptalk
07-08-2004, 11:52 PM
Welcome mrhaslam!

Your allocation looks fairly aggressive. I don't know about that F fund for the longer term. You may want to try the G fund or get more aggressive with stocks. I don't see the F helping you too much this year.

Thanks for joining us.

Tom

Rolo
07-09-2004, 09:47 AM
Welcome, Mr. H!

Yeah, ditch that F. Live on the edge with eeeeeeeeSSSSSSSSS! or go with the less volatile C in lieu of F.

I would also add that you can put it in G and wait for a buy point, but I believe a great buy point was yesterday, so get-ta-steppin'!

lovegardening
07-12-2004, 03:27 PM
:D:^Hey, its nice to see we are up for a change. should give us all a few extra pennies in our funds.......wonder what caused this change???????

puertorico
07-13-2004, 09:52 AM
Tom

When are options expires "july 17" ?

I things the market will go up after friday

expiration.The market will be in his way down

until expiration ,then last week of July I expect

to be a good-one.Today may be:^good ,

but after today nothing else than way down.

That my call.:D

tsptalk
07-13-2004, 11:46 AM
puertorico wrote:
Tom

When are options expires "july 17" ?

Yes.

Options Expiration Calendar (http://biz.yahoo.com/opt/calendar.html)

mrhaslam
07-13-2004, 11:49 AM
Thank you for the advice Tom. Could you please explain your reason as to why the F fund over the G. Also, since I have been invested in the F, it has gradually increased. I changed my allocation about 2 weeks ago when it was down around $9.94. As of yesterday it was around $10.09. I guess it is just beginners luck. I could reckon that this is a good move for the short term. As for the C fund I would think that I got hit pretty hard, but is this the time that I should be putting more into it? This is soooooo much fun!



mrhaslam:^

tsptalk
07-13-2004, 12:38 PM
mrhaslam wrote:
Thank you for the advice Tom. Could you please explain your reason as to why the F fund over the G. Also, since I have been invested in the F, it has gradually increased. I changed my allocation about 2 weeks ago when it was down around $9.94. As of yesterday it was around $10.09. I guess it is just beginners luck. I could reckon that this is a good move for the short term. As for the C fund I would think that I got hit pretty hard, but is this the time that I should be putting more into it? This is soooooo much fun!

mrhaslam:^


Hi Mr H -
The F fund does best when interest rates are falling so, since interest rates are now starting to rise off historic lows, the F fund will not be a great investment over the next several months (years?). That is why if you choose to not be 100% in stock funds at this time, I would recommend the steady G fund fund over the F.

The F fund started to fall in March whenevidence ofthe economy heating up surfaced. The recent strengthwas nothing more than bonds coming off an exaggerated sell off. Sort of like when stocks are oversold. Your timing was good during that dead cat bounce:), but your "luck" may run out if you plan to stay in the F fund for a longer period of time.

The stock funds have been consolidating for several months now. I believe we are getting very close to the next leg of the bull market. So yes, I believe this is the time to be getting into the C, S and or I funds.

That's just my opinion. Does that help?
Tom

Rolo
07-13-2004, 04:18 PM
tsptalk wrote:
The stock funds have been consolidating for several months now. I believe we are getting very close to the next leg of the bull market.
Really close, or, like, Second Coming close? :D <snicker>

Arewethereyet?Arewethereyet?Arewethereyet?

mrhaslam wrote:
This is soooooo much fun!


That's the spirit!

[One of us! One of us!]

Mike
07-14-2004, 04:34 AM
I'm staying away from the I fund in the short/intermediate term - the dollar will certainly strengthen in the rising interest rate environment, which could make things difficult on the I fund.

55 C / 45 S for me (will be slashing my S investment in half in the intermediate future (probably within 6 months).

Small caps tend to do the best early in an economic recovery, then lag behind as the economy pushes further into its expansion cycle. I'd say we are fast approaching this point and will likely see the S & P make the larger gains.

tsptalk
07-14-2004, 08:10 AM
Mike wrote:
I'm staying away from the I fund in the short/intermediate term - the dollar will certainly strengthen in the rising interest rate environment, which could make things difficult on the I fund.

Mike -
That is what I have been saying for weeks now and the dollar just keeps falling. I missed a nice part of the recent run up in the I fund because of it. I have been surprised how weak the dollar has been during this economic recovery. Warren Buffet had said the dollar will continue to weaken and I thought, what in the world is he thinking? Well, he has been right.

Check out the chart. I thought we'd get support at point A, then certainly at point B, but neither has held.
http://www.tsptalk.com/images/dollar0714.gif
Chart provided courtesy of http://www.decisionpoint.com (http://www.decisionpoint.com)

The dollar is down again this morning.

Also, I agree with your analysis on small caps (that they do best early in an economic recovery) however, interest rates are still quite lowand the economy is notexactly setting the world on fire, so I think small caps can continue to do well in the intermediate term (3 to 6 months).