buy low,sell high?

[mailmanusa]

Lets say I dont want to trade too frequently. Just periodically. Buy when I think the market is close to a low point and sell when I think it is closer to a high point. That part is all understood. Now for the question. If one were using the dow as a compass for when to make a move either way, how large of a point span would you generally put between the buy and sell? IE buy at 11000 and sell at 11500 for example. Any opinions out there? 500 point span?1000 point span? Any other helpfull input would be appreciated.

Thanks
JD

[nnuut]

Lots of people work with moving averages, 50 day, 100 day etc. It's up to you how close you want to cut it. Others use,,,,,well all kinda stuff. I'm sure there will be other responses with other methods, just wait and seeeeeee!:D

[The_Technician]

Lets say I dont want to trade too frequently. Just periodically. Buy when I think the market is close to a low point and sell when I think it is closer to a high point. That part is all understood. Now for the question. If one were using the dow as a compass for when to make a move either way, how large of a point span would you generally put between the buy and sell? IE buy at 11000 and sell at 11500 for example. Any opinions out there? 500 point span?1000 point span? Any other helpfull input would be appreciated.

Thanks
JD

U do any excel??? Are you familiar with any data calculations??? If you aren't I would suggest u use the StockCharts.com data....its good enough for doing your sort of thing.....
http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?$SPX

and try this

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$SPX,uu[w,a]dalayyay[de][pd21,2!i][vc60][iut!Uo91!Lc15]&pref=G

That should help ya .....

[Birchtree]

I'm not selling until the Dow is at 17,000 and the SPX is at 1700. And I don't care how long it takes - actually the longer the time element the better.

[nnuut]

mailmanusa,
Ole Birchtree believes in going a little more on the LONG side than I do, but to each his own. :p

[mailmanusa]

I do like to use the charts on yahoo. I look at the graph using the different time span options. I see a low for the last 52 weeks around 10800 and a high of 11700. Somewhere between there, I need to pick my two points of action. Then as more data comes in over the next 3 or 6 months, adjust targets if needed. I am thinking a 500 point span, lets say buy 11200-sell 11700 for a more passive aproach and trade periodically. Any glaring problems with this idea?

nnuut, when you say 50 day, 100 day, do you mean buying or selling on a daily basis based on a 50 or 100 point change in the dow?

[nnuut]

I do like to use the charts on yahoo. I look at the graph using the different time span options. I see a low for the last 52 weeks around 10800 and a high of 11700. Somewhere between there, I need to pick my two points of action. Then as more data comes in over the next 3 or 6 months, adjust targets if needed. I am thinking a 500 point span, lets say buy 11200-sell 11700 for a more passive aproach and trade periodically. Any glaring problems with this idea?

nnuut, when you say 50 day, 100 day, do you mean buying or selling on a daily basis based on a 50 or 100 point change in the dow?

NO! Look at the 50 day moving average on the chart. Pick a point in a uptrend, or bottom, thats where you usiall would buy. That was your in point, you bought. This is up to you, when do you get out, normally when market go below the moving average you have selected, or something stupid really happens, like a hurricane heading for oil fields, You sell, and buy on the uptrend (or bottom) its up to you. I really don't use this method but use it as an indicator.:D What ever works.:confused:

[Spaf]

Hi mailmanusa,

Watch what FundSurfer, Wheels, Festus and Show-me are doing! [RE: The Tracker] Currently they are at or about the 10-11% range. Their systems may differ. What they have in common, is their ability to use the fundamentals and technical analysis. They were right in the direction they took about 85.7% of the time.

[Birchtree]

Also remember there is a fine line between being early and being wrong. How long will this current expansion last? I'm with Ben on this one.

[nnuut]

Also remember there is a fine line between being early and being wrong. How long will this current expansion last? I'm with Ben on this one.

Thanks guys I needed some help with this one, you know me!:p

[mailmanusa]

Thanks for all the info. I have been reading up. I have contributed to TSP for 12 years now but only started making IFT's about 18 months ago. I have made 4 or 5 major moves in that 18 months and only one of them went against me. I bailed just before Katrina hit but the market went up instead of down. I had to wait it out a few weeks to get back in. I am getting the idea. The main one is there are no guarantees. I still like the diversification layout of the L funds. I am thinking of choosing an aggressive stance at 100% L2040 and a conservative stance at 100% L2010. I would bounce back and forth between those two. 2040 for the bulls, 2010 for the bears. Thats not a stupid idea is it? Dont be afraid to tell me. As a newbie I am entitled to ask stupid questions and have stupid ideas. LOL

[Dave M]

It is a good idea. I use the L2040 as my benchmark. If I cannot beat it, I'm joining it.

Dave

[Spaf]

Thanks for all the info........Thats not a stupid idea is it? Dont be afraid to tell me. As a newbie I am entitled to ask stupid questions and have stupid ideas. LOL

Absolutely correct!

At my age I come up with a lot of are stupid opinions but, I can't remember the question! And a lot of times I can't remember what I just said!......:embarrest:

[Birchtree]

It's the ole story - no risk little gain. The more leverage the more potential for gains and of course loss. But time can be the healer of many a portfolio.

[Spaf]

Yea, but 2000 left a mark!............:embarrest:

[TiCKed]

If one were using the dow as a compass for when to make a move either way, how large of a point span would you generally put between the buy and sell? IE buy at 11000 and sell at 11500 for example. Any opinions out there? 500 point span?1000 point span? Any other helpfull input would be appreciated.

Thanks
JD


I'm late to the thread, but I'll offer this:

I don't think picking a point span is the way to go with TSP. The simple reason being....limited investment choices.

For stock pickers, a stop at some pre-determined gain is probably a valid technique. Then you use that money to buy something else that has been left behind, or that you have reason to believe is going to gain. You have a whole world of stocks to pick from.

With TSP funds, you don't have that luxury. For instance, taking a gain in the C, and then sitting in G while the C continues to rise isn't too productive. Better bet is to try to pick the most likely fund to gain, no matter what the previous gain you might have gotten. Try to miss the dips, and stay invested otherwise.

(Not that I've been successful, mind you.....Just an opinion). :embarrest:

[Spaf]

TICKed,

I'll go with that opinion!...........:)

In addition: You can use "Stops"! Trailing stops that track your rates. Generally a % below, i.e., 2% If the stock turns down by 2% you sell. Never take over a 5% loss for the total portfolio.
Wait for the trend to turn bullish, and buy the top performers.

[Birchtree]

Yes, but we Ducati cycle riders enjoy the thrill of the gain and the sorrow of the downside - never tending to take the off road approach. Straight ahead. Now if my good luck holds up this week I may get another DCA on the C fund under $14.00. I know that irritates the Technician no end - but it's so much fund to demonstrate the ability to endure the penitence.

[Spaf]

You gotta find the right on and off roads, lest you wind up in the land fill!....:D