Tally for Aug 06

[rokid]

Once again, Fundsurfer leads the pack followed closely by S&S and Wheels.

And, once again, the Wiz and Pointman72 lead the "accounts started after Jan". Congrats to all!

[rokid]

ChemEng,

As I stated in the PM, the attachment is your Tally page thru 4 Aug. Contact EWGUY if you detect an error.------Rokid

[ebbnflow]

Rokid, how come on your YTD Analysis, I keep seeing that I'm stuck on 7 moves? No biggie, though. :D

[rokid]

Ebb,

I just got lazy this month. I also didn't think anyone was paying attention to the moves count. Therefore, although I updated the YTD account moves, I didn't update the accounts that started after Jan - including yours. I'll bring them all back up to date on the next YTD analysis.:embarrest:

[TRUEHONEST]

Rokid,

I am new here.
How can I join in to be track?
I already wrote a statement in "member allocation, transaction" where I put my tsp fund. Is that good enough or do I have to put it in a different category?

[ebbnflow]

I just got lazy this month. I also didn't think anyone was paying attention to the moves count. Therefore, although I updated the YTD account moves, I didn't update the accounts that started after Jan - including yours. I'll bring them all back up to date on the next YTD analysis.:embarrest:

No problem, we appreciate your work and look forward to your charts. :)

[tsptalk]

TSP Timing Newsletter (RevShark) return through 8/011/06:

August: -0.33%
Since Feb 1: +5.02%

[rokid]

Tally ranking for the 2nd week of Aug 2006.

S&S on top followed closely by Fundsurfer. Both have registered consistently high returns in 2006.

Pointman72 has taken the lead in the post-Jan 2006 rankings.

I'm racing to the bottom. My Emigrant Direct savings account is almost out performing my portfolio. :cheesy:

[tsptalk]

TSP Timing Newsletter (RevShark) return through 8/018/06:

August: +1.90%
Since Feb 1 inception: +7.36%

[rokid]

Fundsurfer is on top with Show-me making a strong move.

In the partial year returns, Pointman72 leads with the Wizard of Oz in second place.

Unfortunately, we lost Dakota, Dirty Diddle, oldschool, rome777, Soldat, spartan, and steelshark as tracker participants. In particular, Dakota has been a long time participant. We'll miss him.:(

Fortunately, we gained Ghangeman, mailmanusa, CyberSamurai, and ChongoChingi.

Welcome!:cheesy:

[tsptalk]

Thanks as always Rokid. I didn't check any other members' but my returns look off on the tally.

I have:
TSP Talk Trading +5.05%
TSP Talk Long Term 7.86%

Maybe I made a mistake?

http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns.html

[rokid]

Tom,

Sorry about that. Since you're not in the tracker, I include your returns manually. I just forgot to do it.:embarrest:

The attachments include your corrected returns.

[tsptalk]

No problem. I just need every % I can get. :)

[tsptalk]

TSP Timing Newsletter (RevShark) return through 8/25/06:

August: +1.45%
Since Feb 1 inception: +6.89%

[rokid]

Nearing the end of another month. As usual, Fundsurfer is posting the top return (must be lonely at the top). Show-me is a close second.

Incidentally, Show-me had the number two yearly return in 2005. Very impressive!

In the partial year returns, Wizard of Oz has reclaimed the top spot from Pointman72.

Enjoy.:cheesy:

[Show-me]

Always a bridesmaid, never a bride. lol:D

Thanks again for the tally.:D

[mlk_man]

Rokid, can you take me off your weekly tally please. I understand the monthly tally, but to post it every week I think is over doing it. I've learned that trying to make so much in one week with TSP is just plain stupid. I think doing a weekly tally is making people move around more than they should so it's not really helping anyone here.

This does not include the weekly tracker which think is helpful.

Thanks,

M_M

[rokid]

MlkMan,

Per your request, you're removed from the Tally.-----Rokid

[namor]

Looks like I've been dropped from the tally.

I've been hanging in the I fund forever, even posting that in my account talk August 9.

(No big loss, tho. The weekly tracker has always stunk anyways. It DOES make people move more than they should. And it shouldn't. Bad judgement call on whomever came up with it.)

I'll go back to posting my own returns in my thread. Its always the most accurate method.

Punchin out.

[tsptalk]

(No big loss, tho. The weekly tracker has always stunk anyways. It DOES make people move more than they should. And it shouldn't. Bad judgement call on whomever came up with it.)
I see in another thread where EWGuy offered to put namor back on the tracker but I wouldn't recommend it after this post.

Poor mlk_man tracked your DAILY moves for months and this is the thanks he gets? :notrust:

[ocean]

I see in another thread where EWGuy offered to put namor back on the tracker but I wouldn't recommend it after this post.

Poor mlk_man tracked your DAILY moves for months and this is the thanks he gets? :notrust:

I can't believe that there was such a comment made by a member to whom I thought was reputable. If one is displeased with the free service here, the best way is to leave with a good term and it is not necessary to make those remarks.

Tom, you've got my vote on your side.

Ocean

[pyriel]

I think Grandma's Footnote says it all...

The real art of conversation is not only to say the right thing at the right time, but also to leave unsaid the wrong thing at the tempting moment. unkn


Pyriel

[FundSurfer]

Namor has a right to his opinion. I did screw up his worksheet on multiple occasions. We ended up going back and forth for months and I was positive that my calculations were right; however, I had been wrong. He has every right to have the attitude that calculating your own returns is the better way to go and I agree with him. However, I go one step better and say that it is always good to have someone check your math as well.

Thanks Namor, the tracker/tally is better because of you.

[EW_ret]

Looks like I've been dropped from the tally.

I've been hanging in the I fund forever, even posting that in my account talk August 9.

(No big loss, tho. The weekly tracker has always stunk anyways. It DOES make people move more than they should. And it shouldn't. Bad judgement call on whomever came up with it.)

I'll go back to posting my own returns in my thread. Its always the most accurate method.

Punchin out.

Namor,

I'am sorry you fell that way abount the Weekly Tracker. A few members have also expressed concern that a weekly accounting of IFT moves is too often, or causes others to make IFTs. The tracker serves a role that many members wanted and others with the expertise developed the tracker calculator. I know many want to thank TSPTalk, pyriel, FundSurfer, rokid and mlk_man for all the hard work they put into the Weekly Tracker. Did I leave anyone out? Have you noticed that another TSP site is selling their TSP calculator (TSPMoney)? Here its free!!

I deleted you last weekend (26 August) from the TSPTalk weekly tracker because you did not post your allocation in your account thread for three months. A new rule is you must post an entry in your account thread at least every three months. I see you posted you allocation of 100% I in your account talk ( namor's Vegas Boxer Account Talk (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=428) ) thread on August 9th. I sent you a private message August 8th informing you of the posting rule. Perhaps its just a misunderstanding on where to post your current TSP allocation.

I will add you back in the weekly tracker if you post to "namor's Vegas Boxer account (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=422)" thread. Its a new rule which allows us to follow all member IFT from a single forum. You will have all prior IFT moves since the beginning of year.

[mlk_man]

IT WAS THE WEEKLY TALLY I HAD A PROBLEM WITH, NOT THE WEEKLY TRACKER........................geez Louise.............

The tracker helps a lot of people if for no other reason than to track your IFT's and show your return so you won't have to bother with it yourself.

Namor, if I screwed up your tracker while I was doing it, I apologize...........just kidding!! http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y216/mlk_man/Smileys%20Animated/TEASIN38.gif

[EW_ret]

IT WAS THE WEEKLY TALLY I HAD A PROBLEM WITH, NOT THE WEEKLY TRACKER........................geez Louise.............

The tracker helps a lot of people if for no other reason than to track your IFT's and show your return so you won't have to bother with it yourself.

Namor, if I screwed up your tracker while I was doing it, I apologize...........just kidding!! http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y216/mlk_man/Smileys%20Animated/TEASIN38.gif

Mlk_man,
You remain in the Weekly Tracker spreadsheet. I understood your post to rokid that you did not want to be in the weekly tally he publishes.

[namor]

Hey everyone:

I apologize if I offended anyone with my post. I should have clarified my position.

First off, I was not knocking anyone's hard work on the tracking systems. But, as FS says, I am entitled to my opinion. And here is why I think that doing a weekly tracking is going to hurt people more than help:

You have to realize that by continually tracking everybody's account as often as you do, there is the danger of promoting competition on this website. And competing with your TSP is dangerous. People will make changes and get whipsawed when they should just stay put. I know, because I am a gambler, and for a while, I kept trying to time the markets.

This is real life, not a game. It's my future. I won't always be able to make money and contribute to the TSP. I am a FERS employee. TSP is where my decisions will put me on the path to a comfortable retirement or put me into poverty. And when that time comes, odds are that I won't be able to do a thing about it because I may not be able to work anymore. I see this happen to people every single day in my job. It's like getting stuck in a glue trap.

I was never a fan of the tracking, because I saw too many people viewing it as a 'competition'. Some of us even challenged others to go 'one on one'. It got to the point that 'prizes' were awarded to the top 5! Not a good idea to gamble your future just to get a mug or one up another member. IMHO, tracking and looking at this as competition could very well be the cancer that kills this site. This site grew because of pooling information, not competing.

That's my opinion and I am sticking to it.

Good luck in your investments.

[Show-me]

namor,

What about all the people that it is helping? I believe it is a lot. No one is forced into doing anything and they are not paying for anything either.

To me the only reason to stop the Weekly Tracker/Tally is because it becomes to time consuming to do.

Again thank you Ewguy and Rokid!

[ocean]

namor,

I am pleased with your explanation about the post you just made. In my opinion, monthly, weekly tracker and tally can be used by members in many different ways. I agreed with you that some use this info as some sort of competition. But some will use as data analysis for comparison and self improvement.

As for me, I belong to the latter and I use this information not to compete with anyone but only to myself. I feel that this is my retirement fund and I treat my investment very seriously and always want to improve.

Again, information provided in this site is meant to be shared. If one finds it useful and it serves the purpose, then continue to enjoy it, otherwise members do not need to pay attention to every piece of information posted here. As TSP participants, we all are taking control of our retirement with our own hands with our own decision. In the same manner, we should be able to make our discretionary to filter out unwanted information.

Happy investing

Ocean

[sugarandspice]

.......I know, because I am a gambler, and for a while, I kept trying to time the markets.....


This is probably the driving force behind your post. If you are indeed a gambler then you know the deep holes and traps that await you. Not to mention the guilt that follows and the shame and humiliation that goes with it. I totally understand what you are saying and it is true that you can't gamble with TSP. If you are you need help for gambling addiction and any little contest here is not your problem. If anyone is basing decisions on what others are doing, trying to catch up on the leaderboard etc. then re-evaluate your reasons. I don't think there is a problem with the tracker.

[Wheels]

I use this site, including the tracker AND the tally, to check my logic and my ideas. Sometimes people confirm my ideas and other times they refute, and sometimes they are able to change my mind. I've been here for over 2 years, from just about the beginning, and I have found it very useful. I would agree that the Tally has a potential for creating some competition but I for one have enjoyed it. As has been discussed in other threads, that competition may have even effected a couple of my decisions. But never to the point of being careless. And if it causes me to study a little more, and put a little more thought into my retirement decisions, then how can that be bad.

Just one man's opinion.

[sugarandspice]

Well said Wheels. And I agree. Just think me agreeing with you, that must make you feel a little creepy having a mental defective buddying up. But not to worry, money and making more of it is my intent.

[EW_ret]

Namor,

I do see your point and agree that a person's TSP account needs to treated with great care. Everyone should take care in how they allocate among TSP funds, and try to avoid the pitfalls learned by those more experienced. That's why many frequent the TSPtalk site; to learn and grow from the experience of others. Your views about the weekly tracker are part of this learning process.

I understand too well how the gambling impulse can catch a person unaware. Movement among funds every day or week hurts long-term performance. I too use to move among TSP funds two to three times a week for a while. My TSP account only fell behind. My solution was to transfer most to a Rollover IRA this year where frequent trading rules prevent weekly and monthly trading. This protected the assets from myself. Of course one must leave the government, or work beyond 591/2 years age, to transfer to an IRA. I still have a small amount in my TSP account to satisfy my thirst for winning, and the hope to do better tomorrow.

[nnuut]

Competition is healthy and if it will make someone try harder to get better returns; GOOD. I think I am at the top of the board with the most IFTs, 95 at last count. I'm not in the top 10 anymore, but that happens, guess I'm about 8% YTD after the gains this week, not bad with 4 months to go in 2006, the best gains are yet to come. The best lessons are learned the hard way. Mamby Pamby really won't make it, you have to be able to go "all in" sometime to make the big bucks. Enjoy! What? :nuts:

[Griffin]

I hate to sound like a broken record, but I have always had my focus on beating the funds, not the people - if I can't beat a buy and hold strategy then I will bail.

Here is a simple investment calculator

http://personal.fidelity.com/toolbox/growth/growth.shtml

If your maxing your IRS limit and have a couple of decades to go - the difference between 10% and 13% can be a million bucks. Back calculate that with the time you will spend watching the market and I think you will conclude that the time is worth it. Of course you can get a little crazy and start bumping up the rate of return and the numbers get astronomical.

This is where the tally is great because it provides a reality check. Every week (when possible) I check my return against the 100% stock allocations, a 50/50 S/I allocation, and the tally. If I'm slipping in the polls then I know immediately that I missed something and I ask myself why?

So personally, I see the Tally as a way to avoid "gambling away" my retirement.

[Griffin]

delete

[GUCHI]

this thread has some very good dialogue which is very helpful for me when making decisions. i am new to the site and have been enjoying all the good info. and advice from the more seasoned members.i just wanted to say thanks and keep it coming. i still get lost with some of the members responses, especially s&s, i guess i need to get up to speed with what has happened in the past to really be able to follow the remarks and comments. but i do get a kick out of the bantering that goes on !!!!

[sugarandspice]

......i still get lost with some of the members responses, especially s&s, .....

The best advice pertaining to this is that if you don't understand it, it probably can't be understood. Best to ignore it and even the stuff that does make sense.

"Pay no attention to that broad behind the curtain!"

[tsptalk]

TSP Timing Newsletter (RevShark) return through 8/31/06:
August: +2.21%
Since Feb 1 inception: +7.69%

TSP Talk August Returns:
TSP Talk Trading Acct = +1.73%
TSP Talk Longer Term Acct = +2.41%

www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns.html (http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns.html)

[sugarandspice]

I'm getting the feeling that for being such a historically bad month(AUG) I think some people are going to have some good gains.

[ocean]

Sugar,

I got lucky and my returns for the month of August is 3.9%. I believe show-me even did better with 4.5% as he referred in other thread. I believe some other folks also have some very good gains.

Ocean

[sugarandspice]

That's what it's all about!

[tsptalk]

TSP Timing Newsletter (RevShark) return through 9/01/06:

August: +2.21%
September: +0.37%
Since Feb 1 inception: +8.08%

[rokid]

Here's the final tally for Aug 2006. Once again, Fundsurfer posted the top YTD return at 14.66%. However, Show-me was a very close second at 14.45%.

Pointman72 posted the top partial year return at 14.26%.

Aug was a good month for most, if not all, of us. The average YTD return for tally participants was 6.67% - which beat every TSP Fund accept the I Fund.

Congratulations to all.:nuts:

P.S. The "moves" information is now up to date. Unfortunately, there doesn't appear to be a correlation between the number of moves and the percent return.

[rokid]

At the beginning of the year someone asked about risk vs return. In other words, how much risk are TSPers taking on to achieve their returns? How do you measure risk?

Traditionally, risk is measured by volatility, i.e. how much does a portfolio vary from its average return? The statistical measure is standard deviation. Now that we have 8 months of data, I've sorted the tally down by standard deviation, i.e. from the riskiest portfolios down to the least risky. Not, surprisingly, the G Fund was the least risky fund and the S and the I Funds were the most risky YTD.

I've also included a chart that shows the Sharpe Ratio of TSPer portfolios sorted in descending order. The Sharpe Ratio is a measure of how much reward has been received for a unit of risk. The higher the ratio, the better. Again, the G Fund leads. Bearing a tiny bit of risk, the payoff was substantial over the "risk free" rate of return (estimated 4% per year).

Finally, based on a risk/return basis, YTD, Faustus, Fivetears, Nnuut, and S&S have achieved the best results.

[FundSurfer]

August Last QtrLast 6 monLast 12 mo YTD
G-fund 0.44% 1.31% 2.55% 4.81% 3.27%
F-fund 1.58% 3.09% 1.88% 1.80% 2.25%
C-fund 2.36% 3.08% 2.85% 8.73% 5.72%
S-fund 2.15% -0.17% -0.35% 8.95% 5.37%
I-fund 2.76% 3.74% 8.03% 21.77% 13.91%
20% Each 1.86% 2.21% 2.99% 9.21% 6.10%


Top 10 Year to Date ( August Last QtrLast 6 monLast 12 mo YTD
Fundsurfer 2.89% 5.43% 8.96% #N/A 13.98%
Show-me 4.17% 9.28% 12.16% 22.70% 13.94%
Wheels 1.97% 4.47% 8.26% #N/A 12.86%
Griffin 5.67% 2.71% 9.17% #N/A 12.63%
Pogo 2.60% 2.89% 6.67% #N/A 11.10%
Beavis 2.21% 5.61% 7.08% 18.10% 10.42%
Faustus 0.44% 3.31% 8.63% 14.45% 10.30%
Tspgo-high-risk 1.88% 2.57% 7.97% #N/A 9.73%
nightlite 2.46% 2.37% 6.76% #N/A 9.40%
Dave M 1.21% 2.05% 5.79% 12.50% 9.23%


Top 10 Last 12 months August Last QtrLast 6 monLast 12 mo YTD
Show-me 4.17% 9.28% 12.16% 22.70% 13.94%
Beavis 2.21% 5.61% 7.08% 18.10% 10.42%
ATCJeff 3.25% 3.51% 5.46% 17.10% 8.32%
Georgiagal 2.47% 2.74% 4.47% 15.13% 9.11%
Faustus 0.44% 3.31% 8.63% 14.45% 10.30%
Aslan 2.44% 2.23% 3.83% 13.20% 8.75%
Neirbod 2.14% 2.40% 3.35% 12.84% 5.82%
Dave M 1.21% 2.05% 5.79% 12.50% 9.23%
TSP_Elvis 0.90% 3.56% 5.14% 12.40% 7.61%
Pyriel 3.99% 4.97% 3.53% 12.38% 6.65%


Top 10 Last 6 months August Last QtrLast 6 monLast 12 mo YTD
sugarandspice 2.14% 5.33% 13.32% #N/A #N/A
Show-me 4.17% 9.28% 12.16% 22.70% 13.94%
Griffin 5.67% 2.71% 9.17% #N/A 12.63%
Fundsurfer 2.89% 5.43% 8.96% #N/A 13.98%
Faustus 0.44% 3.31% 8.63% 14.45% 10.30%
Fivetears 3.37% 4.98% 8.38% #N/A #N/A
Wheels 1.97% 4.47% 8.26% #N/A 12.86%
Tspgo-high-risk 1.88% 2.57% 7.97% #N/A 9.73%
Draggen3 4.21% 6.24% 7.48% #N/A 8.08%
Beavis 2.21% 5.61% 7.08% 18.10% 10.42%


Top 10 Last 3 months August Last QtrLast 6 monLast 12 mo YTD
Ocean 3.90% 9.54% #N/A #N/A #N/A
Show-me 4.17% 9.28% 12.16% 22.70% 13.94%
Pointman72 2.53% 8.27% #N/A #N/A #N/A
Draggen3 4.21% 6.24% 7.48% #N/A 8.08%
Wizard of Oz 0.85% 6.05% #N/A #N/A #N/A
Beavis 2.21% 5.61% 7.08% 18.10% 10.42%
Fundsurfer 2.89% 5.43% 8.96% #N/A 13.98%
Sugarandspice 2.14% 5.33% 13.32% #N/A #N/A
Fivetears 3.37% 4.98% 8.38% #N/A #N/A
pyriel 3.99% 4.97% 3.53% 12.38% 6.65%


Top 10 for August August Last QtrLast 6 monLast 12 mo YTD
Griffin 5.67% 2.71% 9.17% #N/A 12.63%
Draggen3 4.21% 6.24% 7.48% #N/A 8.08%
Show-me 4.17% 9.28% 12.16% 22.70% 13.94%
Pyriel 3.99% 4.97% 3.53% 12.38% 6.65%
Ocean 3.90% 9.54% #N/A #N/A #N/A
ChemEng 3.88% #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
genod 3.70% #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Gilligan 3.41% 0.27% 1.83% #N/A 1.93%
Fivetears 3.37% 4.98% 8.38% #N/A #N/A
ATCJeff 3.25% 3.51% 5.46% 17.10% 8.32%


Things to remember: These numbers have had the effects of compounding removed in order to compare apples to apples and why these numbers are different from what Rokid posted. You had to have started in July to have a number since these are monthly totals. EWGuy did all the work (If you get the tracker and look at the tally page you would have seen this table already.) Thanks EWGuy!

If you see an error, let one of us know. This data has been entered by hand and mistakes do happen.

That attached file has all the participants data.

[FundSurfer]

Rokid, did you just look at the data in the tracker or did you look at the numbers on a daily basis. The reason I ask is that if you have a month where someone shows a 2% gain and has not changed allocations and you have someone else has a 2% gain but has moved 5 times, both could have a similar level of fluctuation (say the market dives 5% early and recovers for a 2% gain) but the person with more moves would show greater risk (went down 5% and then up 7%) because the tracker data does not show the fluctuation for the person who had no moves (0% to 2%).

[rokid]

Fundsurfer,

I looked at the monthly tracker data and used monthly volatility as the measure of risk.

My assumption was more moves, more risk. However, the correlation between the number of moves and the standard deviation is zero, on a monthly basis, for the YTD portfolios, i.e. there is no correlation.

That said, looking at daily volatility might produce a different result and be a better approach for measuring the risk of a particular strategy.

[Wheels]

Rokid,

Please confirm for me that this latest Tally does NOT include Friday Sept 1st.

Thanks. And thanks again to you and Ewguy and to everyone who volunteers their time and talents to do this for us. (I would try to list the names but I would certainly leave one out)

[rokid]

Wheels,

Confirmed - thru 31 Aug.

If there's a problem, it's EWguy's fault!:cheesy: -----Rokid

[EW_ret]

Wheels,

Confirmed - thru 31 Aug.

If there's a problem, it's EWguy's fault!:cheesy: -----Rokid

I agree. The monthly tracker for August only goes through Thursday, August 31st. I will not send a second tracker this week for Friday, September 1st. The next tracker will be through September 8th.

[tsptalk]

Congratulation Griffin, Draggen3, and Show-me, for being in the top 3 for August returns!! Just PM me your shipping address and your stainless steel travel mugs will be on their way.

View mug here ... http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=45553&postcount=2

[Griffin]

Congratulation Griffin, Draggen3, and Show-me, for being in the top 3 for August returns!! Just PM me your shipping address and your stainless steel travel mugs will be on their way.

View mug here ... http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=45553&postcount=2

Finally, all my TSP dreams have been realized. :D

[ebbnflow]

Finally, all my TSP dreams have been realized. :D

Congratulations Griffin, you're first TSPCup? Is there a limit to the number of times you can win the TSPCup? I hope we could be eligible for it every month. :D

[ocean]

Finally, all my TSP dreams have been realized. :D

Congrats Griffin. Enjoy and I felt the same when I won the cup on June.

Ocean

[SkyPilot]

Ahhh... the water (or beverage of choice) is truly sweeter in such a vessel...

[tsptalk]

Finally, all my TSP dreams have been realized. :D
That's noth'in. Wait 'til you see the new TSP Talk laser pens I just bought. :nuts: