fuzzduzz account talk

[fuzzduzz]

The market is acting well so far this week (jobs # on friday) although this # has been on a positive bias of late. The bias of the market for the short term seems to be up with the small cap leading the way. Although it's not really strong we may get somewhat of a summer rally. I will be transferring 100% into the S fund today and will take effect for Fridays market. Hopefully we'll get a light volume pullback today for a better entry point. :)

[Rod]

Good move! I've been 100% S since Monday.

Share price COBMonday: $13.07

Share price COB Wednesday: $13.22

Decent gains!:^

[fuzzduzz]

I wasn't sure what was gonna happen with Iraq and the fed so I decided to err on the side of caution.

[Rod]

Yeah, same here. But when I heard Iraq was handed over 2 days early, I felt the market would react positively since traders would not longer be on edge about it.

That's when I decided to stay 100% S. Yes, it was a "gamble" all around. But it paid off.

Also, historically, (at least since Feb) the S Fund has had gradualgains in the last week of the month leading into the next. Any other time throughout the month hashad sporadic gains.

I don't know if that means much, but I found it an interesting trend.

God Bless

[tsptalk]

Fuzzduzz,

Can you use the S fund share price? You can get it from the http://www.tsp.gov (http://www.tsp.gov/) website. Today's opening S fund price was 13.07.

Thanks

[fuzzduzz]

I guess I could but then I'd have to keep track of everything manually on paper. With the (vxf) fund everything is done automatically. They both track the Wilshire 4500 and the percentages could be off a tiny bet but I don't understand what the difference is? :D

[tsptalk]

fuzzduzz wrote:
I guess I could but then I'd have to keep track of everything manually on paper. With the (vxf) fund everything is done automatically. They both track the Wilshire 4500 and the percentages could be off a tiny bet but I don't understand what the difference is? :D
Oh, I didn't realize they both tracked the Wilshire 4500. I was thinking vxf was just a small cap tracker. If it's too much trouble, it's not a problem.

I did noticethe vxf was down .16% Friday but the S fund was actually up. So I looked at June, andthe S fund was up 2.71%, and vxf was up 2.49%. Not much, but enough of a difference.

[fuzzduzz]

I also follow the (vexmx) which tracks the wilshire 4500 and their returns were alittle different as well. That's funny they all track the same index and are all that much different. Good enough I'll switch over. :^

[fuzzduzz]

Minor change, instead of using the (vxf) fund I'll use the actual (s) fund. Starting friday 100% S Fund

100,000 S Fund $13.07 Shares 7651.1094

Hey I'm up 76.51 :^

[tsptalk]

Thanks :^, and sorry for the inconvenience.I think we'll all be able to follow your account a little easier.

[fuzzduzz]

So much for my timing. I recently moved 100% S Fund from being in the G fund for quite awhile and since then the market has had a slightly downward bias. I can't find any reason for this market to continue it's bullish cycle. Although we are oversold I'm hoping for a bounce here so I can get back to the G fund for now.

[oneyoungbuck]

I have been 40%c and 60%s for the last 3 trading days. I ahve noticed that the C fund has been outperforming the S fund lately so will probably allocate heavier to the C fund. I was watching CNBC a about a week ago and someone, I cant remember his name, stated that he beleived that the S&P would outperform the other sectors of the Market over the near future. So far I think hes been correct. Also, based on the Frizz differentials the C fund is still a good buy as well as the S fund. As far as the I fund goes I think it will still fall a bit more so I beleive the I fund is just not a good bet for now (Frizz diff. is at -66, STAY AWAY!). Thats all for now good luck to all.

[tsptalk]

fuzzduzz wrote:
I can't find any reason for this market to continue it's bullish cycle.
Wow! :* I see many reasons for it to continue. Maybe not today, but earnings are jumping, the economy is growing, interest rates are low, and the only reason rates will rise is if the economy heats up too quickly.

We are still consolidating but if this market turned over and died into another bear (breaking belowthe May lows would be a sign) I will be very shocked.

This is a presidential election year and barring any major disasters, which many are concerned, I can't see the market not taking off sometime between now andearly August,just after the democratic convention in late July.

Tom

[fuzzduzz]

I think everything you stated is already priced into the market. :(

[Rolo]

fuzzduzz wrote:
I think everything you stated is already priced into the market. :(
Sounds feasible and would explain the lengthy stall.

[tsptalk]

fuzzduzz wrote:
I think everything you stated is already priced into the market. :(

My indicators tell me otherwise. Psychology and earnings are the keys. Psychology is shaping up based on sentiment surveys and in the following chart, a great way to determine valuation, it shows the S&P 500 is undervalued by 28%. Granted rising bond rates will bring these numbers closer together, but this figure makes stocks the better value now. Either bond rates have to rise significantly or stock prices have to go up. We will likely see some of both. I guess time will tell.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/value.gif

10 Yr Treasury Note vs S&P500 Forward Earnings Yield
This measures market valuation by analyzing where money is being treated the best by the financial markets. The S&P500 Forward Earnings Yield is the consensus earnings estimates expected for the next 12 months divided by the S&P500 price index. Then a simple comparison can be made to determine whether stocks or bonds are more attractive at any particular point in time.

Noticethe 1999 and 2000 spread which shows how overvalued stocks were. Because of this, I was very bearish in 1999 and 2000. Unfortunately I got bearish way too early and missed a lot of the 1999 gains. I guess even when the writing is on the wall, it isn't so easy to time the market, which is what is happening to me now. Stocks are a good value, but the question is, when will they make their move?

Tom

[Rolo]

Wow, that is interesting. So, then, it would be true that stocks are currently undervalued? If so, then why are the fundamentalists screaming about P/E's and claiming stocks are overvalued?

("Because they are wrong." is an acceptible answer, hehehe)

[tsptalk]

Maybe they are not looking at forward earnings estimates, which are rising all the time with the growing economy. So PE's have to be compared to growth. If growth is just as high, then it balances out.

Take the forward earnings estimate for the S&P 500 for 2004 . It is currently $69.53. With the S&P at 1111, the forward PE is 15.9. Actuallynot that high. Now consider a stock like Intel's earnings were up almost 100% quarter over quarter from last year.

[fuzzduzz]

If things are so good at intel why did it sell off??? This is exactly why I follow the charts and none of this mumbo jumbo stuff. It doesn't matter how good everything is suppose to be according to analyst the market can still go where it wants to. (Who listens to analyst these days???) Didn't they already show you what they're capable of. Charts don't lie they reflect the underlying funnymentals and how investors precieve them. If everything is so rosey out there why do the charts look so weak?

Economic growth for the 1st. quarter (stated at 4.4 %) has been revised down to 3.3%. Auto sales, factory orders, jobs/june were all weaker than expected. Yesterday retail sales for june declined 1.1 %. The biggest monthly decline in 16 months. Economist are downgrading estimates for economic growth and earnings for the second quarter and the rest of the year.

This is a stock market that is refecting the problems it sees comming in 6-9 months down the road. I think we go downward til fall (Sept.-Nov.) Then we may get a tradable rally.

In my humble opinion ;)

Hi all,

I just started a Scottrade account and was hoping someone could give me the names of the ETF's that mimic the C, S, and I funds? Also,is there anything that mimics theGor F funds? Thanks.

[fuzzduzz]

I'm using:

C= spy S= vxf I= efa F= agg :D

fuzzduzz

Thank you, :D

[Rolo]

fuzzduzz wrote:
If things are so good at intel why did it sell off??? This is exactly why I follow the charts and none of this mumbo jumbo stuff. It doesn't matter how good everything is suppose to be according to analyst the market can still go where it wants to. (Who listens to analyst these days???) Didn't they already show you what they're capable of. Charts don't lie they reflect the underlying funnymentals and how investors precieve them. If everything is so rosey out there why do the charts look so weak?

Preach it, brother fuzzduzz!

heh...I was just talking about this with a collegue this morning. Right or wrong, sense or no sense, the Market does what it does; I just want to run with it, ride it up and dump it at the proper time.

Technical investing, to me, seems easier than purely fundamental investing.

Someone on here said exactly how I felt, "Fundamentals tell me what to buy, technicals tell me when to buy."

So fuzzduzz, what are your current holdings and plan?

[tsptalk]

fuzzduzz wrote:
If things are so good at intel why did it sell off??? This is exactly why I follow the charts and none of this mumbo jumbo stuff. It doesn't matter how good everything is suppose to be according to analyst the market can still go where it wants to. (Who listens to analyst these days???)
How refreshing. I'm usually on your side of this argument with people calling my technical analysis mumbo jumbo. :) I'm a big fan it and I look at charts all the time.

I didn't think I was defending analysts but they did getIntel's earnings correct at .27 for the 2nd quarter, so I'm not sure what you meant. Are you talking about the 2004 earnings estimates I mentioned? To play devil's advocate for a minute,I think Intel fell yesterday because of fundamentals and overreaction. Their analysts lowered3rd qtr. earnings estimates to 30% from 32% growth. The chart probably did forcast it as semis were getting weak ahead of that news so I can't argue with that.

Anyway fuzz, like I said, time will tell. I'll give you round one, but I still say after the democratic convention, the market will make its move. At least thats what my charts say. :D

Tom

[mlk_man]

Welcome back fuzzduzz! Started you an account talk thread.

Good luck,

M_M

[tsptalk]

Hi fuzzduzz! How's everything?

Tom

[fuzzduzz]

Love your avatar milk_man. do you know where I can get one like it of a "Mail Man" ???

[fuzzduzz]

Hi Tom,

Everything is well except this market. It's been a tough year. Although I haven't been posting I always read your thoughts.

[mlk_man]

No I don't, sorry fuzzz..........................:(

[fuzzduzz]

All the major indexes are at or near their 50ma and looking oversold. The problem is the markets can stay oversold for awhile. I think this week will be critical for the markets either to bounce and continue the upward move that started in october OR... break through support at 50ma on heavy volume (a lot of nice gains since october investors have been waiting to sell and take some profits for tax purposes) ala last year. I don't have a clue what will happen so I'll wait for the charts to tell me then I'll make a move.

[cowboy]

Ift @ Cob (02/09/2006)
50% I
50% S

Only thing is the cheeze could be messy!! LOL!

[fuzzduzz]

Starting the new year off in the F fund:
F -- Price is above the 20, 50 and 200 emas
Emas are all on a upward slope.

S & C Funds: Price is below all three emas (20,50 and 200) and all emas are sloping downward.

I Fund : Price is below all emas (20, 50 and 200) the 20 & 50 emas are sloping downward but the 200 ema has flattened out. On the daily chart the I fund is oversold in the short term while sitting at support of the November lows. It could bounce from here.

[Show-me]

Alright fuzzduzz! Good luck in the New Year!

[fuzzduzz]

Looks like a tradable bounce. Going 50C 50S...

[Show-me]

Nice discipline and nice return.

[Birchtree]

That move will control and hold the lead. Very gutsy and admirable.

[fuzzduzz]

It appears the large caps are getting much more attention on this snap back rally than the smaller brothers. So I will make an adjustment here. 100 C

[Birchtree]

Allah, I'm so sorry to hear that. Now I'll never catch you.

[Corepuncher]

It appears the large caps are getting much more attention on this snap back rally than the smaller brothers. So I will make an adjustment here. 100 C

The MACD for the DWCP is actually crossing over the signal line, while the S&P is still a ways away.

Could mean more bounce per ounce for the index that was trounced?

[alevin]

The MACD for the DWCP is actually crossing over the signal line, while the S&P is still a ways away.

Could mean more bounce per ounce for the index that was trounced?

This is one of the indicators I've been waiting for. S is the first to make the crossover. I'm still waiting for my other indicator to help firm it up that the shift will last long enough to make it worthwhile jumping back on the train, should be able to tell within the next day or so. Since its the first crossover on my chosen signals, I'm expecting to move into S before I move into C or I, but anything could happen in the next couple days so I won't know what or when I finally do something til I actually do it :).

[fuzzduzz]

Short Term: It looks to me that this latest up move is comming to an end (maybe a day or two left) in the short term. We may have a test of the recent lows of a few weeks ago. If those lows don't hold, it's gonna be a long year me thinks.

Intermediate Term: The charts look quite positive right now. I still think we need to retest the (short term lows) to shake out the weak holders. If those lows hold it would be a real positive for intermediate term move upward if not I'm goin golfing all summer (I will anyway :nuts: )

In my humble opinion :cool:

[ezmoney]

Like that second mouse gets the cheese. So true, sad to say some will rush in and get caught. Others will wait patiently to get their small portion. Then we will wait for that big slice and we'll get it all. Patience in this market is the key. There will be some up days a lot of down days. So just being patient will reward us with some small gains. If we could only get rid of those (2) trade limits we could do better much better.:o

[grandma]

Fuzzduzz moved to S this past Thursday - And today he has a birthday!

Maybe if we cheer loud enough, the stocks will just shoot right UP !!

8464







(psst! Chef ! are you taking a long `after church dinner nap? We will have to skip the ice cream - just get the cake delivered!!)

[nasa1974]

Happy Birthday

[coolhand]

Happy Birthday FD! :)

[tsptalk]

HB2U! ... One of our original members!

[Show-me]

Just imagine me, in my best Marilyn Monroe voice, singing "Happy Birthday to you".:D

[nnuut]

Happy Birthday fuzzduzz!!!! :D

[KevinD]

Just imagine me, in my best Marilyn Monroe voice, singing "Happy Birthday to you".:D
Or not... :sick:

HBD FD!

[Guest2]

Just imagine me, in my best Marilyn Monroe voice, singing "Happy Birthday to you".

Sorry, It seems that I can't get by the breasts ! Were you singing ?

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/picture.php?pictureid=139&albumid=21&dl=1249962007&thumb=1 (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/album.php?albumid=21&pictureid=139)

Happy Birthday FUZZZ !
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/picture.php?pictureid=128&albumid=21&dl=1249794004&thumb=1 (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/album.php?albumid=21&pictureid=128)http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/picture.php?pictureid=130&albumid=21&dl=1249794004&thumb=1 (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/album.php?albumid=21&pictureid=130)http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/picture.php?pictureid=128&albumid=21&dl=1249794004&thumb=1 (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/album.php?albumid=21&pictureid=128)

[merlin]

Happy belated birthday Fuzzbuzz.:D

[Show-me]

Voice, I said voice, nothing about cross dressing and stuffing a bra.


Sorry, It seems that I can't get by the breasts ! Were you singing ?

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/picture.php?pictureid=139&albumid=21&dl=1249962007&thumb=1 (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/album.php?albumid=21&pictureid=139)

Happy Birthday FUZZZ !
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/picture.php?pictureid=128&albumid=21&dl=1249794004&thumb=1 (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/album.php?albumid=21&pictureid=128)http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/picture.php?pictureid=130&albumid=21&dl=1249794004&thumb=1 (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/album.php?albumid=21&pictureid=130)http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/picture.php?pictureid=128&albumid=21&dl=1249794004&thumb=1 (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/album.php?albumid=21&pictureid=128)

[Show-me]

:D:D:D:D

[nnuut]

HPBD Fuzzduzz!
17763

[nasa1974]

Happy Birthday!!!

17769