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The_Technician
07-14-2006, 10:14 AM
I researched my theory on my F fund discovery yesterday. Good news, I validated the theory, it hit for 99% of the time back to Dec 05.....bad news .....its has a tricky personality.....

We all have exhausted ourselves to find the key to this bugger, and sooner or later it had to fall, so its going to be touch and go for a while until we get in a groove....I believe we should be able to hit the fund 75% or better of the time at this moment.... I'm going to start out with the obvious time to get in.....and I will mention one more thing, the fund is very tricky on a daily basis, so this isn't easy.....there will be periods that it just wouldn't be a good time get in unless you play her daily on some speculation of what it will do tomorrow....

I mentioned yesterday that investing in the fund could be at a bad time....I'm actually expecting a reprieve before it is the right time to get in....so returns for a few days could be to the plus but I would expect a pull back....I'll be waiting for the obvious buy in point...I hope it hasn't already past it and continued to climb from there....I'm speculating that could happen.....so lets see what happens here over the next couple of weeks....maybe now we can make it happen....;)

The_Technician
07-14-2006, 08:09 PM
We reached a very high impulse in the fund today highest as far back as April 04...(I didn't look any farther)....this would indicate the fund is probably topping out at this time...

This would possibly mean that the fund will be taking a rest and another buying opportunity could be in the mix soon....

I may or may not be available next week.......watch something will happen and I won't be able to make any money because of my absence from the market....happen to me twice this year already....

FUTURESTRADER
07-15-2006, 10:07 AM
tech..."more matter and less art" hmm?

F fund 'may' have some FV applied to it based on (AGG) or, just as much, the Ten year yield. 10 yr yield (bond traders) looking for a pause at next month's Fed meeting, since 10 yr yield bumped up to close to fed rate of 5.25 but has pulled back since then, hence the F fund has held it's own and trended up. I agree, it may be topped out as AGG is overbought and 10 yr yield is oversold, both can continue in those conditions.

I'd love to hear a little more specifics on your 'theory'..and your..'discovery'??!!..lol. Really, tho..help us all out, especially newbies, and try to contribute something a little more tangible. I do appreciate your efforts and passion.

The_Technician
07-15-2006, 10:28 AM
tech..."more matter and less art" hmm?

F fund 'may' have some FV applied to it based on (AGG) or, just as much, the Ten year yield. 10 yr yield (bond traders) looking for a pause at next month's Fed meeting, since 10 yr yield bumped up to close to fed rate of 5.25 but has pulled back since then, hence the F fund has held it's own and trended up. I agree, it may be topped out as AGG is overbought and 10 yr yield is oversold, both can continue in those conditions.

I'd love to hear a little more specifics on your 'theory'..and your..'discovery'??!!..lol. Really, tho..help us all out, especially newbies, and try to contribute something a little more tangible. I do appreciate your efforts and passion.

Well the way it goes is like this....more "matter" only steers the boat in the general direction....we can keep up on that with the news....but steering the boat over the waves in that direction is the "ART"....it doesn't "matter" in general.....huh made a funny....that is where this is going....if you want, you keep us up on all the matters....but I'm going to try to steer the boat over the waves while we're in the right direction.....its a true ART.....

The_Technician
07-22-2006, 07:55 PM
OK lets start on this F fund thingy.....looks like its topped out for a bit and should be losing more than gaining for the near term......like I said this isn't easy and it is almost a day by day monitoring catastrophe..:confused: ....so the fun starts here.....

nnuut
07-22-2006, 09:31 PM
You will have much more fun in the "F" fund when Burntankle pauses the rate increases.:) Who said that? I said that!:D

nnuut
08-04-2006, 06:02 PM
Tuesday could be "F" time!!! Pause, pause!:D

tsptalk
08-05-2006, 12:51 AM
I wonder if Friday was "buy the rumor"... then Tuesday would be "sell the news" for bonds? :eek: That's just a short-term thought.

I saw bond yields were down big Friday morning (bonds up) so I went to the G fund to take my F fund profits. I thought we'd see the G fund penny Monday, but unfortunately we got it Friday.

nnuut
08-05-2006, 11:25 AM
Bonds love just the thought that interest rates will stall and go down, look at Friday. :D Yeah, where is Carnac when you need him? :D :D

Pilgrim
08-08-2006, 09:15 AM
Apart from fluctuations and any short term reaction to the Fed decision today, the long term action in bonds has to be dominated by the fact that bond yields - ALL of them - are significantly below the overnight rate.

I don't know how this will get addressed, but it can't go on. Either yields must rise, or the fed must cut rates or lending will come to a halt with really bad consequences for the economy. Bond prices, and the I fund, cannot assume a steady uptrend until this gets fixed. For now, pressure is on yields to rise and prices to go down.

The_Technician
08-10-2006, 09:50 PM
Guess you all figured out that the F fund is taken a break....if you haven't, u will figure it out soon enough.....F fund will probably go this way for a couple of weeks.... so don't get your shoes tied in a knot....and trip along the way.....

The_Technician
08-16-2006, 08:10 PM
Guess you all figured out that the F fund is taken a break....if you haven't, u will figure it out soon enough.....F fund will probably go this way for a couple of weeks.... so don't get your shoes tied in a knot....and trip along the way.....

Long term she looking pretty setup.....but you never really know how shes gonna react in the short term.....what the heck its a toss up at the moment, being positive when everything seems right as it is now....but if the feds see inflationary pressure.....:blink:

James48843
08-17-2006, 08:56 AM
I think the "F" fund is now in a place to become a much better capital preservation vehicle-

When the interest rates were climbing, the "F" fund was exactly where you DIDN'T want to be.

But now that interest rates seemed to have leveled off, this might be a great opportunity to set some aside and watch it grow, with much less risk than stocks, and more potential upside than the "G".

What do you think? Is it time to start putting some green into "F"?

sugarandspice
08-18-2006, 02:49 PM
I tend to agree. I think the F fund may be my new parking lot.

nnuut
08-19-2006, 01:20 PM
I think the "F" fund is now in a place to become a much better capital preservation vehicle-

When the interest rates were climbing, the "F" fund was exactly where you DIDN'T want to be.

But now that interest rates seemed to have leveled off, this might be a great opportunity to set some aside and watch it grow, with much less risk than stocks, and more potential upside than the "G".

What do you think? Is it time to start putting some green into "F"?

EXACTLY!! :D If the FED will watch their mouths and not scare the "F" away again.:o

Spaf
08-19-2006, 02:11 PM
I kind of monitor the F-fund and the ETF [TLT] over at stockcharts.com. Since about the end of June, early July, those bond funds have been trending upwards according to their 50 day moving averages.

I think it's wise to have a Plan B at this point. I know we are in a (recovering) bullish period presently, hopefully it will continue. However, we are also in a real energy crisis. There is a lot of consumer pain at the gas pumps. Ford has an excessive back up inventory, so much so they are going into production cuts (some 14 plants by 2012). Remember, the F-series was their bread & butter! It's down 28%. GM and other are also feeling the pain. Keep in mind all this has a ripple effect for all the sub-supporting businesses.

Take a look at Wal-Mart [WMT], check out it's trading prices (notice The July 2006 drop).

In yesterdays presidential press conference, Dubya said that the economy was strong and the direction was to stay the course, basically.

What we need to remember is who buys the gasoline for his vehicles. And what was the advice he recieved prior to the war with Iraq.

Hey, that could be Tom's next trivia question! What's the MPG on a Presidential Limo?

Plan A, I guess is to stay the course with the current bull market. But, and, I agree, we definitely need to be researching some alternate funds, that fit into a Plan B.

Regards

nnuut
08-19-2006, 02:59 PM
Some good points Spaf, Yes I'm thinking both ways, just have to watch and be nimble. The Cease Fire in Lebanon doesn't look like it's doing too well. We have to watch that one close. If it fails BAM, oil prices back up to $78 in a minute and were back where we started, with the War, Iran, Ethiopia and Where are the HURRICANES? :mad: Hey Dave! Dave?:notrust:

nnuut
08-22-2006, 01:52 PM
Loose Lips sink the market, again!:mad:

Moskow Just had to say something. Now it's the interest rate and inflationary worries again. Not really good for the "F" fund.

FUTURESTRADER
08-25-2006, 02:40 PM
+2 cents on F fund today??

Pilgrim
08-29-2006, 10:44 AM
Caution to F-funders!!
----------------------------

MARK HULBERT
Too many bond bulls
Commentary: Don't bet that 'this time is different' and rally will continue


By Mark Hulbert (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=109+104+117+108+98+101+114+116&y=Mark+Hulbert&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B85a4280f-420a-4b5e-8853-7e774e8434c1%7D&siteid=mktw), MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Aug 29, 2006

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B85A4280F%2D420A%2D4B5E%2D8853%2 D7E774E8434C1%7D&siteid=

The_Technician
09-05-2006, 09:51 AM
A while back I mentioned that the F was taken a break....looks like that time is over with the fund still making returns, just not as great....looks like the grass should start growing faster soon....

Pilgrim
09-06-2006, 10:52 AM
Why are people jumping into F fund today? Bonds are down because of labor report this morning, but as the report on CNN says: "Bond traders will be also be looking closely at the Fed's "Beige Book" survey due out at 2 p.m. ET."

Seems to me that U.S stock will move in the same direction as AGG in responst to Beige book. Either both will be up or both will go down. If up, why not C and S? If down, why not G? What am I missing that could result in stocks down but AGG up?

p.s an answer in the next 4 minutes to make deadline would be nice.

mlk_man
09-06-2006, 10:57 AM
Not betting on today, betting on tomorrow. :D

The_Technician
09-26-2006, 07:41 AM
Interesting article Nnuut....

http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/26/markets/bondcenter/bonds/index.htm?postversion=2006092608

FundSurfer
09-26-2006, 07:58 AM
1111

nnuut
09-26-2006, 11:01 AM
Interesting article Nnuut....

http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/26/markets/bondcenter/bonds/index.htm?postversion=2006092608

Good read, but i'm staying mostly in the "F" for tomorrow (85%) And (15%) "C", Durable Goods, New Home Sales might support the "F"?:o

nnuut
09-27-2006, 04:02 PM
The Fn' fund is really jerking my chain again! What's this fall right at the end of the day business?:mad:

FUTURESTRADER
09-27-2006, 04:27 PM
nnuut,

keep an eye on (TLT) 20+ yr bond ishare; seems to exaggerate direction of AGG up or down. And/or watch of ($TNX) for 10 year bond yield/inverse of (AGG)

nnuut
09-28-2006, 07:32 AM
nnuut,

keep an eye on (TLT) 20+ yr bond ishare; seems to exaggerate direction of AGG up or down. And/or watch of ($TNX) for 10 year bond yield/inverse of (AGG)
Thanks for the tip, i'll do that!:D

vectorman
09-28-2006, 10:42 AM
From one of the talking heads on CNBC, "when the price of oil was heading down money was rolled into bonds." My thoughts- If oil starts back up, it will be interesting to see the effect on bonds. For those saying that oil will drop to 45 dollars a barrel again, I see OPEC putting the brakes on that when and if oil gets below 58 dollars. Also for those who are into gaps, the AGG chart has a nice gap up between Sep 18th to 19th that needs to get filled.:blink:



http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=AGG

fedgolfer
10-02-2006, 09:27 AM
Anyone going to play the F fund for a short term defensive play to find support off its 10 day MA ($10.987)? Probably the better defensive fund to be in the short term starting tomorrow... especially since G gets the penny tonight. Only thing keeping me on the fence is F could easily go sideways or downward to its 20 day MA (also bottom of trend channel).

TerpTrader
10-02-2006, 11:17 PM
.....Only thing keeping me on the fence is F could easily go sideways or downward to its 20 day MA (also bottom of trend channel).
....Seems to bounce off that 20 SMA roughly once a month....shouldn't be long now. A lil' patience may pay off....i be sittin' in G 'til that opportunity presents itself. :cheesy:

The_Technician
10-27-2006, 12:37 PM
U gotta love that F fund sometime, right Nnuut......:)

The_Technician
10-27-2006, 01:59 PM
U gotta love that F fund sometime, right Nnuut......:)

This F'ing luck has got to go the utter way..."lets see, left nnuut, right nnuut, utter, yeap, I'm in the right place allright"......Thoughts of a Bull having fun......is that you Birchy???

The_Technician
10-27-2006, 02:00 PM
what a day....

weatherweenie
10-27-2006, 02:27 PM
Glad I diversified and put 50% in the F for today.

The_Technician
10-30-2006, 11:46 AM
I mentioned that this fund should start to go the utter way last week....looking for it to pause here this next week or so and then produce some returns after that....:)

nnuut
11-03-2006, 09:11 AM
Well, how about that Fn' fund, -.39, just don't like it when more people have jobs. I just love the "F" fund!:blink: What do you think about Monday now Ebbnflow? Opps -.47 at 11:40!

FundSurfer
11-03-2006, 02:35 PM
Ouch! What happened to the F'n fund today? -0.57% at 3:30. Usually this is a place of shelter. Tough break today.

ebbnflow
11-03-2006, 02:42 PM
Well, how about that Fn' fund, -.39, just don't like it when more people have jobs. I just love the "F" fund!:blink: What do you think about Monday now Ebbnflow? Opps -.47 at 11:40!

Since I'm playing only the I and the F-fund right now, I may have played it right today! I-fund (MSCI EFA = -.309%) is faring much better than the F-train (-.51%). Hoping for a bounce Monday aboard (not in front of) the F-train. :D

tsptalk
11-03-2006, 09:04 PM
F-fund down .06 Friday. :eek:

I can't remember the last time, if ever, the F fund dropped that much in one day.

fabijo
11-03-2006, 11:38 PM
F-fund down .06 Friday. :eek:

I can't remember the last time, if ever, the F fund dropped that much in one day.

Help! I hope that means good buying opportunity!

Show-me
11-03-2006, 11:46 PM
Boy I wish I knew more about the bond market to know what this could mean. The F fund baffles me.

Griffin
11-04-2006, 08:29 AM
Ten year note was up about 2.5% yesterday, unless it retest's the low, I'd expect more pain ahead.

1175

FUTURESTRADER
11-04-2006, 08:41 AM
Help! I hope that means good buying opportunity!

Not necessarily, maybe a 'one day' play since $tnx popped and AGG dropped to the extent they did, but that move would have had to been made friday morning for Monday. AGG put in a strong double top before the drop, and $TNX put in a strong double bottom. Both were going in/out of overbought/oversold stochastics, respectively.

fedgolfer
11-09-2006, 08:47 AM
F fund got whored yesterday. AGG was up .27%... yet the F fund only gained a penny (+.09%)... I had half my chips in F... would have been nice to profit a little more.

Pilgrim
11-09-2006, 09:36 AM
F fund got whored yesterday. AGG was up .27%... yet the F fund only gained a penny (+.09%)... I had half my chips in F... would have been nice to profit a little more.

This happens really frequently, almost like they dampen the swings. Flip side is when AGG is down .27% and you only lose a penny.

weatherweenie
11-09-2006, 09:40 AM
F fund got whored yesterday. AGG was up .27%... yet the F fund only gained a penny (+.09%)... I had half my chips in F... would have been nice to profit a little more.

It's bad enough that we can't depend on EFA to indicate what the I fund will do, now we can't depend on AGG for insight into the F fund?

What is a boy to do? :notrust:

Pilgrim
11-09-2006, 10:30 AM
Hard times coming for F fund??

PETER BRIMELOW
Dow's high doesn't impress everyone
Commentary: Richard Russell is wary, Don Hays is worrying


By Peter Brimelow (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=112+98+114+105+109+101+108+111+119&y=Peter+Brimelow&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7B607fdc6b-462b-4934-b520-82bc6531667a%7D&siteid=mktw), MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Nov 9, 2006


But, Bianco continued: "The significance of a divided or unified government is, however, apparent in bond total returns. During times of unified government, long bonds return 2.18%. When the government is divided, thus ensuring some level of gridlock, bonds return 8.82%."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B607FDC6B%2D462B%2D4934%2DB520%2 D82BC6531667A%7D&siteid=

ATCJeff
11-15-2006, 09:35 AM
For those moving to the F fund tomorrow.....

Looking at the chart, iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG), I do not see bond prices moving higher. To me it looks like we are up against resitance @ 100.48.

http://tinyurl.com/ylevcp

Pilgrim
11-20-2006, 09:46 AM
I haven't looked at bond yields for a few days and was surprised this morning to see the yield curve TOTALLY inverted. While the 2 year bond has been paying more than the 5 or 10 year note for some time, the 30 year long bond always paid more. Right now the 2 year is paying 4.77% versus 4.68 for the 30 year. When did this happen and what does it mean? Whatever yield curve inversion portends, I have a feeling that something is getting much worse.

James48843
11-20-2006, 03:21 PM
what does it mean?

Some say it means a recession is just ahead.

nnuut
11-24-2006, 09:21 AM
How will the action today with the Dollar taking a dive effect the "F" fund? Is this a opportunity ?:confused: Com-on gurus!:)

nnuut
11-24-2006, 09:29 AM
I don't think so!:mad:
11/24/2006 - Updated 9:41 AM EThttp://custom.marketwatch.com/1.gifTreasurys benefit from weakness in equitiesThe 10-year benchmark Treasury yield hits an eight-month lowhttp://markets.usatoday.com/1.gif</IMG>By Leslie Wines, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices were higher early Friday, sending yields down, as the fixed-income market drew support from capital flows out of the equities market as stock traders expressed nervousness about a sharply lower dollar.
The bond market will have an early close at 2 p.m.
The 10-year benchmark Treasury note last was down 6/32 at 100-21/32, with a yield [$TNX (http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-quote.asp?symb=$TNX)] of 4.544%, its weakest level in eight months and down from 4.565% in late trade on Wednesday. Prices and yields move in opposite directions. The 30-year bond rose 9/32 to 97-31/32, with a yield [$TYX (http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-quote.asp?symb=$TYX)] of 4.627%.
The 2-year note last was up 2/32 at 100-9/32, with a 4.727% yield.
Treasurys extended Wednesday gains in thin trading, "helped by a rally in German bunds and Japanese bonds as well as weakness in equities," according to Action Economics. Bonds in overseas markets earlier also benefited from declines in stock markets.
http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-story.asp?markets=TREASURY%20SECURITIES&guid=%7B3E5DFB3E%2DB89C%2D4105%2D94EC%2DDE9BA83AB1 D8%7D

nnuut
11-24-2006, 10:57 AM
No "F" fund gurus HUH? BBBAAAHHHhhhhhhhh!:mad:

FUTURESTRADER
11-24-2006, 11:11 AM
nnuut...$tnx is on pretty strong support and could hold but.... it's oversold and 'whats oversold can stay oversold'. My thinking is $tnx holds and AGG is topped ..prognostication good for 1-2 days only. :)

nnuut
11-24-2006, 11:19 AM
Thanks, I guess we can wait and Seeeeeeeeeeee?:blink:

The_Technician
01-12-2007, 03:33 PM
Thanks, I guess we can wait and Seeeeeeeeeeee?:blink:

Yeap Nnuut, I think you hit it on the head, the F fund can really do you in...if you don't know what you're doing with it, guessing at it, you could just go straight to heeellll being in it....:D

nnuut
01-12-2007, 03:58 PM
They don't call it the Fn' fund for nothing.
Ya know how I use technical analysis to plan my allocations? I have been working on this system for 5 years, and back tested it for 3 years. I flip a coin two out of three, if I get two heads I go all "C" fund, two tails all "S" fund, three heads all "I" fund, three tails all "G" fund, if I drop a coin "F" fund!:D Works every time!!:p

The_Technician
01-12-2007, 04:03 PM
They don't call it the Fn' fund for nothing.
Ya know how I use technical analysis to plan my allocations? I have been working on this system for 5 years, and back tested it for 3 years. I flip a coin two out of three, if I get two heads I go all "C" fund, two tails all "S" fund, three heads all "I" fund, three tails all "G" fund, if I drop a coin "F" fund!:D Works every time!!:p

Maybe you should consider upgrading to a newer coin.....:nuts:

Griffin
01-16-2007, 05:14 PM
Does anybody know what time Lehman Brother's typically updates their numbers?

http://www.lehman.com/LL_S/public/publicsite/bondindex.html

nnuut
01-16-2007, 06:47 PM
Maybe you should consider upgrading to a newer coin.....:nuts:
Is that a personal attack on my system? E TU CARNAC?:(

Fivetears
01-16-2007, 09:59 PM
COOL!
http://www.funnypictures.tv/html/animated-gifs/miscellaneous/h000/h89/img200604240434370505.gif
I'm Tryin' It!

They don't call it the Fn' fund for nothing.
Ya know how I use technical analysis to plan my allocations? I have been working on this system for 5 years, and back tested it for 3 years. I flip a coin two out of three, if I get two heads I go all "C" fund, two tails all "S" fund, three heads all "I" fund, three tails all "G" fund, if I drop a coin "F" fund!:D Works every time!!:p

Oldcoin
01-17-2007, 01:05 AM
I like that coin thingy....:D

The_Technician
01-17-2007, 06:54 AM
Is that a personal attack on my system? E TU CARNAC?:(

Only if it don't work.....but at the moment it seems yours is working....thumbs up to you Norman....;)

nnuut
01-17-2007, 07:28 AM
I like that coin thingy....:D
Maybe an Old Coin would work better than a new coin?:D

Fivetears
01-17-2007, 11:28 PM
Bonds pull back on inflation fears
Early Treasury gains erased by stronger-than-expected PPI reading; dollar splits.
NEW YORK - Treasury prices pared early gains Wednesday after a key gauge of inflation at the wholesale level came in higher than expected. Bonds pulled back to mostly unchanged after the government reported that the Producer Price Index reading, or PPI, slowed to a 0.9 percent increase in December, but topped Wall Street expectations. Bond investors fear inflation since it erodes the value of the fixed-income paying investment. On Thursday, bond traders will look for signs about inflation pressure at the retail level with Thursday's consumer prices index for December.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/17/markets/bondcenter/bonds/index.htm?postversion=2007011709
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=72667&postcount=344

vectorman
01-30-2007, 04:14 PM
F fund ends nicely today with a hammer candlestick.
http://stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/candlesticks.html

Look at one month time frame http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=AGG

nnuut
02-01-2007, 09:25 AM
"F" has gone nnuuts today +.43 at 10:25!! What!!!:D Opps back down to .29&#37; 2 minutes later. Yahoo is having a brain fa$$!

fedgolfer
02-01-2007, 09:46 AM
... must be yahoo because AGG for my TD Ameritrade account shows today's high for agg at $99.76, the price retreated a tad from there proving the 20 SMA as a point of resistance. Low in the price channel, and oversold in the slow stochs, BUT in the middle of what appears to be a falling wedge.

350zCommTech
02-01-2007, 09:56 AM
"F" has gone nnuuts today +.43 at 10:25!! What!!!:D Opps back down to .29% 2 minutes later. Yahoo is having a brain fa$$!

Yields have just reversed course and are now even for the day. So no change for the F fund at the moment. I'll bet the pricing figures in the ISM had a lot to do with it.

vectorman
02-01-2007, 09:57 AM
... must be yahoo because AGG for my TD Ameritrade account shows today's high for agg at $99.76, the price retreated a tad from there proving the 20 SMA as a point of resistance. Low in the price channel, and oversold in the slow stochs, BUT in the middle of what appears to be a falling wedge.


Never seen this before.... go to AGG at the bottom of tsptalk and it says the opposite of what Bigcharts is showing...at least at 10:55est.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=AGG
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AGG&t=1d
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=&#37;5ETNX&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
http://money.cnn.com/markets/bondcenter/

350zCommTech
02-01-2007, 10:28 AM
Never seen this before.... go to AGG at the bottom of tsptalk and it says the opposite of what Bigcharts is showing...at least at 10:55est.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=AGG
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AGG&t=1d
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ETNX&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
http://money.cnn.com/markets/bondcenter/

It's not accurate. I never use it.

nnuut
02-14-2007, 11:43 AM
How about that "F" fund +.33 today?!! Fickle thing!:nuts:

vectorman
02-21-2007, 12:17 AM
From Bloomberg..." Bernanke in his twice-yearly Congressional testimony last week helped push up Treasuries by saying inflation pressures may be subsiding. His remarks were followed by data showing drops in new housing construction and industrial production last month.

``There is room for yields to go down,'' said Nagai of Daiwa Securities. ``Inflation is not a serious problem now. The level is high but not accelerating.''

Ten-year yields may fall to 4.5 percent by the end of the month, he said. "


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=au8Phq3k3fB4&refer=bond

350zCommTech
02-22-2007, 01:25 PM
Bad day for the F fund. Looks like a loss of 3 cents so far. Bond yields moved up despite a higher than expected jobless claims. This makes absolutely no sense to me. That's why I will continue to stay away from the F fund. IMHO, the reward is not worth the risk. Perhaps yields are just bouncing of support.

1421

WIND_HUNTER
02-22-2007, 02:13 PM
Hopefully we will get the bounce tomorrow and I can escape the Frog pond. just waiting for the opportunity to get back in stocks. Did I mention I hate the Frog pond?:sick:

vectorman
02-28-2007, 09:36 PM
Info effecting tomorrow...maybe...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=a5UdAaNJIOpA&refer=bond

ATCJeff
03-01-2007, 08:38 AM
Looking good for the F fund today. Wish I was here with ya.

ATCJeff
03-01-2007, 10:03 AM
Looking good for the F fund today. Wish I was here with ya.

Sorry guys/gals I ruined a good thing for you.:(

vectorman
03-01-2007, 08:02 PM
Sorry guys/gals I ruined a good thing for you.:(

I don't know about that. It looks like you posted about 11 am, about the time the little chart below for the F fund on Tom's site climbing back up toward even.:)

FUTURESTRADER
03-04-2007, 06:57 PM
march 10 yr bond price up

http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=ZNH7&data=A&date=080905&den=LOW&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=021&argd=3&arge=4&argf=13&ch2=042&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk

Rod
03-04-2007, 07:17 PM
Save me a seat...

weatherweenie
03-04-2007, 08:37 PM
march 10 yr bond price up

http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=ZNH7&data=A&date=080905&den=LOW&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=021&argd=3&arge=4&argf=13&ch2=042&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk


If the 2+% drop in the nikkei 300 carrys over to the US markets, the bonds should do well, right?

tsptalk
03-04-2007, 09:11 PM
If the 2+% drop in the nikkei 300 carrys over to the US markets, the bonds should do well, right?
Possibly a flight to quality, yes. Bonds are extended in the short-term but the intermediate term is bullsih.

FUTURESTRADER
03-04-2007, 09:12 PM
If the 2+% drop in the nikkei 300 carrys over to the US markets, the bonds should do well, right?

I suppose so, moreso as the cliched 'flight to quality' if the US markets continue to do poorly, also less inflation pressure...one talking head this weekend suggested the fed may LOWER rates at the next meeting.

350zCommTech
03-28-2007, 02:24 PM
Yields have reversed and are now up. Not sure what's going on. Foreigners selling?

Anyway, the F fund has given up all the gains and might even lose a penny.

350zCommTech
03-30-2007, 12:52 PM
What's with the volatility in the bond market these days? Today for example, the yields were up in the morning, then down, and now they are up again. If they stay up, the F fund could lose 1-2 pennies today.

tsptalk
03-30-2007, 02:00 PM
It's the battle between a slowing economy and inflation. Inflation is head by a nose today, but the slowing economy has position along the rail. Down the stretch they come...

FUTURESTRADER
03-30-2007, 02:10 PM
technically, $TNX looks like it has a lot of room to the upside

tsptalk
03-30-2007, 02:32 PM
It seems like the inverted yield curve is trying to un-invert. The 30-year yield also looks like it wants to keep moving higher which might make things tougher for the AGG and the F fund.

vectorman
04-02-2007, 09:50 PM
Info from Bloomberg for Apr 3rd
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=aGNg33MvaLzU&refer=bond

The_Technician
04-04-2007, 08:04 AM
Info from Bloomberg for Apr 3rd
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=aGNg33MvaLzU&refer=bond
I believe its getting to be "F" fund time.....so keep an eye out......:D

cap32
04-05-2007, 08:42 AM
looks like most people are headed that way for a few days:D including myself:D

vectorman
04-07-2007, 11:53 AM
Clips out of recent Bloomberg report..http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=aStuWRwikoy0&refer=bond

Holiday Trading

Ten-year yields exceeded their 200-day moving average for the first time since Feb. 2 by trading as high as 4.75 percent. The yield is a ``natural support level'' for the market, said Walter Burke, technical strategist at Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York. Technical analysts make predictions based on chart patterns.

The next major support for 10-year notes is at 4.79 percent, Burke said. A line connecting the June 2006 high of 5.25 percent and the January high of 4.91 percent intersects today's date at that level, he said.

Treasury volume was lower than average every day this week as many traders and investors took vacations coinciding with school closings for the Passover and Easter holidays. Bond traded ended at 11 a.m. yesterday at the recommendation of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.

Three of the seven biggest moves in the benchmark 10-year note during the past 10 months occurred on employment report days. Employment reports, usually released on the first Friday of the month, have come on Good Friday three times since 1990, and ``movements in yields were more exaggerated than the historical and expected measures would indicate,'' according to an April 4 report by primary dealer Credit Suisse.

Treasuries had their biggest decline this year on March 9 when the February employment report was stronger than forecast. The 10-year note's yield rose 7.5 basis points.

I had said in another post that bonds may slide lower a few more days, but if the 10 yr is at a natural support level it will be interesting come Monday to see if there is a gap up ( refer to 10 yr Y chart, opposite of AGG) or return to 4.70&#37; 10 yr Y to wait for more data. I'm still looking at a head and shoulder pattern in the AGG chart that started Sep 2006 ( left shoulder) , and now the right shoulder will soon be complete. There is also a gap in mid Aug 06 that never got filled. There was also a gap down Mar 1st 06 that took 6 1/2 months to fill, so there really isn't any certain time limit to see these gaps filled. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=AGG

10 yr Y chart...http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ETNX&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Once inflation escapes from its ' Contained Box ' both stocks and bonds will take a hit.

The_Technician
04-09-2007, 09:27 AM
Looking for the poorer earnings to help out the F fund this week....keep your eye on it.....

gunsmokex
04-09-2007, 10:55 AM
Just moved to 100% F, this could the time.

nnuut
04-09-2007, 10:55 AM
Don't you think that FED SPEAK this week will effect the "F" with the likelyhood of a lower rate change looking bad? :D

gunsmokex
04-09-2007, 11:12 AM
If the market does drop I think the F will gain based on the pattern from July of last year when the F was below the sma 20, 50 and 100. Its practically identical to the charts we have now. All thats missing is the next big drop in the market. I'm a pure novice at this though, I'm just shooting in the dark, pure speculation. But I'm following TSP GO as well. I just waited a couple more days before TSP GO went into the F. But the F fund did treat me very well during the month of February F was +1.53, C -1.95, S -0.26, I +0.18.

nnuut
04-09-2007, 11:18 AM
Don't you think that FED SPEAK this week will effect the "F" with the likelyhood of a lower rate change looking bad? :D

I'm talking about this:

Later in the week, investors will have other news events to parse, including scheduled testimony Wednesday on market discipline from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and remarks on Tuesday from Dallas Fed leader Richard Fisher.
The minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be released on Wednesday. (more)http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-story.asp?markets=TREASURY%20SECURITIES&guid=%7BC6026B02%2D88CC%2D4592%2D81A8%2D374E59DBEF 5B%7D

gunsmokex
04-09-2007, 11:31 AM
And if the Fed does the opposite I'll be ok, I'm doing the opposite of what everyone thinks. I'm betting I'll come out ahead by the end of the week if I stay in F. The fed speaks on Tues and Weds and I think everyone is selling the rumour.

Show-me
04-09-2007, 07:16 PM
Well a 0.3&#37; lose from Thursdays close to today. I'll take that beating.

ChemEng
04-09-2007, 07:44 PM
I took that beating as well...

Hopefully will make it up by the week's end though.

I just dont see the reason to be in the market this week... Probably means Ill miss another 3+&#37; return week.

Spaf
04-09-2007, 08:00 PM
The F-fund [AGG] for agitate. No sir re that fund does not look very good at the moment.

Show-me
04-09-2007, 08:02 PM
I took that beating as well...

Hopefully will make it up by the week's end though.

I just dont see the reason to be in the market this week... Probably means Ill miss another 3+% return week.

Yes, I agree. To paraphrase a article I read "there is a long laundry list of negative data and the market continues upward". I don't get it.:embarrest:

vectorman
04-10-2007, 10:22 AM
Well the gap down on the AGG chart is filled and we now are back up to the top of a downtrending channel of a possible head and shoulders pattern. Will there be a breakout to the upside of the channel tomorrow or will more inflation concerns in the Fed minutes be the focus. If the focus is on slowing housing and sub-prime, that may be a short term boost to stocks and bonds. Trader Fred says a big move is near. The herd is jumping into the G fund, with a few trying the F tomorrow. The last time that happened, Apr 2nd, there was a big move to the upside for stocks the next day. Who will be right this time....the herd or the contrarian thinkers??? Other quick point...On Apr 12th 2004, the market was positioned to retest its recent highs and both stocks and bonds took a hit that lasted awhile.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=87276&postcount=3

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=AGG ( notice the volume on the AGG chart for last week, Apr 2nd. I wonder if that was for the exit or the enter door?)

http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulders.htm

http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulderscharts_.htm

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patt erns:head_and_shoulders_t

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=&#37;5EGSPC&t=5y

Birchtree
04-10-2007, 06:30 PM
"Notice that the 30-year Treasury bond's price has broken below its 10-day moving average, its 50-DMA, and its 200-DMA, and in the process has traced out what appears to be a massive head and shoulders "top" formation, implying higher interest rates." We all know what that means.

http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm Saut, 4/9/07 "Welcome back Mr Bond"

Tempest
04-11-2007, 12:25 AM
"Notice that the 30-year Treasury bond's price has broken below its 10-day moving average, its 50-DMA, and its 200-DMA, and in the process has traced out what appears to be a massive head and shoulders "top" formation, implying higher interest rates." We all know what that means.


:laugh:

vectorman
04-11-2007, 09:57 AM
Does this mean the herd got it right, or are more people following the leaders?
Looks like Trader Fred was right about a big move. Now lets see if he can save his gains.

tsptalk
04-11-2007, 11:33 AM
I don't want to digress from the F fund discussion, but I was thinking the same thing about Fred. He called a big move, his charts were indicating it would likely be a move down, but that one sub-model kept the system in the market. This is where I would lose my discipline and get out, but then again, that's exactly why my returns have lagged the system's since last summer.

tsptalk
04-20-2007, 04:42 PM
Time for the F again. After Monday's penny gain in the G fund (assuming it doesn't come today) I will likely move to the F fund. Stocks are obviously the place to be but it's getting too dangerous out there for the short-term.

nnuut
04-20-2007, 07:13 PM
The "G" is for Monday, good move!!:D

vectorman
04-27-2007, 07:59 AM
Link to Bloomberg Bond news

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=a8jo7_rCNGzs&refer=bond

vectorman
04-27-2007, 10:55 AM
10 yr tres Y so far holding at the top of its channel. May start ranging lower toward 4.6. Means higher price for F fund.


http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=&#37;5ETNX&t=5d
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ETNX&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

http://money.cnn.com/markets/bondcenter/

FUTURESTRADER
04-27-2007, 11:03 AM
i agree, trending higher past few days, but looking like a potential head fake..so, yes...yield maybe lower, good for F :)

vectorman
04-27-2007, 11:14 AM
i agree, trending higher past few days, but looking like a potential head fake..so, yes...yield maybe lower, good for F :)

Nice chart. The last couple of days I think was just a little profit taking because of the uncertainty of the GDP report. There is also a wedge at work, so at some point there will be a breakout...direction unknow at this time, that might play into your head fake theory. Now investors are processing the inflation factor and the risk vs reward between stocks and bonds. I can't get over this feeling of a repeat of 2004 selloff that effected both stocks and bonds. Hope I'm wrong.

tsptalk
05-01-2007, 10:22 AM
This morning's ISM report seems to be hitting the AGG hard but it doesn't look like bond yields are up all that much. Strange. It might be a good day to move from G to F if you are on the sidelines. The 50-day moving average is acting as support here and I think the selling in AGG seems exaggerated.

ChemEng
05-01-2007, 10:24 AM
This morning's ISM report seems to be hitting the AGG hard but it doesn't look like bond yields are up all that much. Strange. It might be a good day to move from G to F if you are on the sidelines. The 50-day moving average is acting as support here and I think the selling in AGG seems exaggerated.

I was surprised to see that too. Not sure what is driving the action here...

tsptalk
05-01-2007, 10:39 AM
I'm not sure what to make of it. The problem is certainly not that the economy is growing too fast, and inflationary concerns (as the higher than expected ISM may indicate) are secondary to the potential slowdown. There are many still saying recession in the 2nd half of 2007. The AGG sell-off makes for a nice buying opportunity for bonds in my opinion.

tsptalk
05-01-2007, 05:10 PM
It looks like bonds did recover all day along with stocks. We may be lucky and get a flat day on the F fund even after this morning's sell-off.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/bonds3.gif

vectorman
05-01-2007, 08:39 PM
It looks like bonds did recover all day along with stocks. We may be lucky and get a flat day on the F fund even after this morning's sell-off.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/bonds3.gif

Even....amazing:)

fabijo
05-02-2007, 02:08 PM
Look how flat bonds have been all day. Weird.

350zCommTech
05-02-2007, 03:28 PM
Look how flat bonds have been all day. Weird.

Yup, yesterday was also a surprise.

weatherweenie
05-07-2007, 08:08 PM
AGG was up 0.10% and F fund was unchanged. Guess I should be happy it didn't go down? :mad:

vectorman
05-07-2007, 08:19 PM
AGG was up 0.10% and F fund was unchanged. Guess I should be happy it didn't go down? :mad:

I guess the TSP police don't want us timing the F fund.:laugh:

tsptalk
05-07-2007, 10:09 PM
AGG was up 0.10% and F fund was unchanged. Guess I should be happy it didn't go down? :mad:
I think this is a little payback from Friday's .02 gain when AGG was up just 0.13%.

weatherweenie
05-07-2007, 10:24 PM
I think this is a little payback from Friday's .02 gain when AGG was up just 0.13%.

It's different this time, I was in the F fund TODAY! :laugh:

ATCJeff
05-08-2007, 07:36 PM
How did we squeeze out a penny today? :confused:

tsptalk
05-09-2007, 10:49 AM
TSP may be trying to keep F fund timers on their toes like they do to the I fund, but it's also a case of prior day partial penny gains and losses being added to or taken away to the current day.

Today bond yields are up (prices down) yet the AGG is up. I can't explain that one.

tsptalk
05-09-2007, 02:06 PM
The Fed's inflationary talk spooks the bond market. Stocks don't seem to care.

tsptalk
05-11-2007, 01:10 PM
Ugly reversal in bond yields this afternoon.

vectorman
05-14-2007, 10:30 AM
Checkout the big picture of the 10 yr T. Will it start to break up or down? Something big should happen soon to help establish a new trend. Investors playing the 2yr T are shorting in a big way, betting that yields will go up. (Any contrarian investors among us? Is this the Smart money or the bond herd?)

" Bernanke Spurs Record Bets Against Two-Year Notes (Update1)

By Elizabeth Stanton

May 14 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's inflation concerns have prompted investors to make a record bet against $88.8 billion of two-year Treasuries.

That's the amount of futures contracts on notes traders have sold at the Chicago Board of Trade, the most since the Commodity Futures and Trading Commission began keeping track of the data in 1993. It exceeds wagers to profit from rising prices by $51.8 billion, the largest so-called net short position ever, according to CFTC data released May 11.

Speculation on a decline in the short-term Treasury notes has more than doubled in the past two months as the economy weathers the worst housing slump in a decade and Fed officials signal they have no intention of cutting their target rate for overnight loans between banks anytime soon. Two-year notes are more sensitive to changes in interest rates than longer-term debt.

``The rate cuts that people have been expecting in earnest late last year and early this year have slowly been priced out,'' said Brian Carlin, head of fixed-income trading in New York at JPMorgan Private Bank, which oversees $100 billion. He has clients betting against two-year notes.

The growth shows how much sentiment has shifted among traders, who were convinced the housing slowdown would prompt the central bank to cut rates to 4.5 percent from 5.25 percent this year as recently as March. Options contracts based on the target rate now show traders are anticipating one quarter-point reduction........


Sweet Spot

The futures bet on a rise in two-year yields is a sign that many investors are ``skeptical we are going to see such aggressive rate cutting over the coming year,'' said Ciaran O'Hagan, a strategist at Societe Generale in Paris.

The price of the two-year note futures contract expiring in June closed May 11 at 102 4/32, down 10/32 from March 30, producing a gain for traders who had sold it.

There were 6.4 million Treasury contracts outstanding at the end of April, up 80 percent since the end of 2005. Two-year contracts increased the most, nearly tripling to 1.1 million.

``The two-year area is to me the sweet spot of the curve right now,'' said Robert Corvino, vice chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade and an independent trader of Treasury futures since 1984. ``It is going to be most sensitive to a Fed move or non-move,'' said Corvino, who specializes in the two-year contract.

To contact the reporter on this story: Elizabeth Stanton in New York at estanton@bloomberg.net "



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=auZK5iV01WrA&refer=bond



http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=&#37;5ETNX&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

tsptalk
05-14-2007, 11:23 AM
All of sentimentrader.com's bond sentiment data is based on the 30-yr and they are showing mixed results. Some overly bullish, some overly bearish and some neutral. Not much help there.

350zCommTech
05-15-2007, 10:33 AM
Just looking at $TNX, the F fund is primed. Tomorrow's housing news could be the trigger. I'm going to seriously the F fund for tomorow.

vectorman
05-15-2007, 10:48 AM
Just looking at $TNX, the F fund is primed. Tomorrow's housing news could be the trigger. I'm going to seriously the F fund for tomorow.

F fund is range bound with the AGG resting on support and the 10yr T against resistence. The play recently had been to buy with the 10y T above 4.70 and sell when they get near 4.60. With CPI out of the way, the next big news will deal with housing. I concur with you that this may be one of the few times where alittle money can be put into the F fund for a short play. Also if 12&#37; is right about this afternoon going red, there might be a move into defensive bonds ths afternoon until this China situation is taken care of.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=afUkqqa03GkU&refer=bond

Treasuries Little Changed on Less-Than-Forecast Price Increase

By Annie Pinkert and Kim-Mai Cutler

May 15 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries were little changed after a government report showed April consumer prices increased less than economists forecast.

Yields dipped for the first day in three on speculation that inflation pressures may have peaked, leaving the Federal Reserve room to hold rates steady. Fed policy makers held borrowing costs at 5 1/4 percent for the eighth time at a policy meeting last week, saying inflation remains the ``predominant'' economic risk.

``The numbers were better than what the market was fearing,'' said Theodore Ake, head of U.S. government bond trading in New York at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. ``The Fed's going to be in a box for awhile, and that's going to foster range-trading.''

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ETNX&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=AGG

tsptalk
05-15-2007, 11:50 AM
Just looking at $TNX, the F fund is primed. Tomorrow's housing news could be the trigger. I'm going to seriously the F fund for tomorow.
The bond action today is curious. CPI comes in lower than expected, and there are continued signs of a slowdown in the economy, yet bond yields are up again today. :confused:

nnuut
05-15-2007, 11:58 AM
The bond action today is curious. CPI comes in lower than expected, and there are continued signs of a slowdown in the economy, yet bond yields are up again today. :confused:
I was thinking the same thing Tom. There is a better chance that the FED may lower rates and no effect on Bonds? I almost went to the "F" fund for tomorrow but changed my mind when I saw no response from the AGG.:confused: Strange:blink:

vectorman
05-16-2007, 09:57 PM
Bond Ticker...from Yahoo Finance

3:48 pm - Trade Needs Some Motivation : The market did a whole lot of nothing today, inching higher, slipping back, then just pivoting around unchanged even as there was a batch of relevant (although conflicting) data. The session was a wash, with ranges established very early & remaining stubbornly in place all day. The motion in global bonds had some baring on trade, as EuroBonds fell off on inflation worries. The ranges have been unforgiving & the market should be pent-up & poised to bring some drama, although Thurs not the likely day. The curve was also grinding in place, with the 2-10-yr yield spread heading out -2.6. The buck got back some ground with short-covering helping, along with the positive side of the day's data, moving against the yen to the best levels since the late-Feb market upheaval. Gold took a hit as the dollar took a bid with the spot metal now 662.35 (-9.70). Crude got hit as well on lessening supply concerns but had recovered some late in the day heading out at 62.55 (-0.62). Data will have to be well off the mark to get a much going, but one good, solid negative report would likely hit bonds fairly hard. The data due are initial jobless claims, leading indicators & Philly Fed. Ex-Fed-master, newly minted PIMCO mentor, Greenspan speaks at a conference in Atlanta, while Moskow & Bernanke will speak in Chicago.

http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds/market_summary/article/200001/bond_ticker


I found the line ...." The ranges have been unforgiving & the market should be pent-up & poised to bring some drama, although Thurs not the likely day."..interesting.


For those who are into candlesticks. The AGG has held support at 99.75 with buyers in control yesterday. I noticed the last three days is similiar to a pattern in the AGG chart for Mar 9-13, then there was a steady uptrend. At the same time the S&P started to go sideways. Then on Mar 27th, the S&P fell off and the AGG started going sideways working into a steady downtrend, probably as buyers moved back into stocks. The point is, in hindsight you can see a rotation into bonds a week before the big sell off. Anyway, just something else to watch for.;)

vectorman
05-17-2007, 05:39 PM
The AGG looked pretty bad today, but looking at a wider picture. The low on monday was 99.76; on tuesday the low was 99.75; the AGG opened yesterday at 99.75 and its low was 99.7 but ended up closing at 99.91; and today after a low of 99.67, it ended up closing at 99.74, giving us a long shadow candlestick. In this case, " candlesticks with long lower shadows and short upper shadows indicate that sellers dominated during the session and drove prices lower. However, buyers later resurfaced to bid prices higher by the end of the session and the strong close created a long lower shadow."

Yesterday, we had a long white candlestick body.

" Long white candlesticks show strong buying pressure. The longer the white candlestick is, the further the close is above the open. This indicates that prices advanced significantly from open to close and buyers were aggressive. While long white candlesticks are generally bullish, much depends on their position within the broader technical picture. After extended declines, long white candlesticks can mark a potential turning point or support level. "

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?submitted=true&intflavor=advanced&symb=AGG&origurl=%2Ftools%2Fquotes%2Fintchart.asp&time=4&freq=1&startdate=&enddate=&hiddenTrue=&comp=Enter+Symbol%28s%29%3A&compidx=aaaaa%7E0&compind=aaaaa%7E0&uf=7168&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&type=4&size=1&optstyle=1013

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:introducti on_to_candlesticks

vectorman
05-17-2007, 10:41 PM
I expected to see something like this tonight....


U.S. Notes May Gain as Yields at One-Month High Spur Demand

By Wes Goodman

May 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury notes may rise for the first time in six days on speculation 10-year yields at their highest in a month will attract some investors.

The yield climbed to 4.76 percent yesterday, a level seen only three times in the past three months. Investors from Asia have tended to increase purchases as the yield approached 4.75 percent over the past few days, said Adam MacKillop, a U.S. fixed-income trader at Barclays Capital Japan Ltd. in Tokyo.

``As we get to the cheap end of the recent range, there is a lot of anticipation by dealers of money coming from this region,'' MacKillop said.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell 1 basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 4.75 percent at 11:26 a.m. in Singapore, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The price of the 4.5 percent security due in May 2017 rose 2/32, or 63 cents per $1,000 face amount, to 98 2/32.

Yields, which move in the opposite direction to prices, rose yesterday in New York trading as signs of a strengthening in the economy eroded speculation the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs this year. The 10-year yield gained 8 basis points this week, the most since the start of April.

UBS AG, Europe's largest bank by assets, revised its forecast for the Fed and expects the central bank to start a series of rate cuts in August instead of June, according to a research report from the firm today.

UBS, Pimco

Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund, said he had made a ``mistake'' in forecasting the central bank would start trimming borrowing costs by now, he said yesterday. Gross, who is chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, is sticking to his call that the Fed will lower borrowing costs this year.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his fellow policy makers have held their target for overnight bank lending at 5.25 percent since June, the highest in six years.

Takashi Furui, who helps run Japan's second-biggest bond fund at Daiwa Asset Management Co. in Tokyo, said a slowing in U.S. growth that brought the pace of expansion to the lowest in four years will curb inflation.

Furui started extending the duration of his U.S. holdings in May and plans to do more, predicting the 10-year yield will fall to 4.2 percent by year-end. Duration measures a portfolio's sensitivity to changes in interest rates, and a bigger number indicates a more bullish position.

The U.S. inflation rate, which was 2.3 percent in April as measured by consumer prices excluding food and energy costs, is poised to come down, he said.

``Inflation will fall to 2 percent by the end of this year,'' said Furui, one of the managers for the $14.5 billion Daiwa Global Bond Fund, the biggest in Japan after the Kokusai Global Sovereign Open fund in Tokyo. ``The economy is gradually slowing.''

To contact the reporters on this story: Wes Goodman in Singapore at wgoodman@bloomberg.net ;

Last Updated: May 17, 2007 23:28 EDT


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=a1TTw38f4ssA&refer=bond

vectorman
05-18-2007, 10:07 AM
Relative Strength

The so-called relative strength index for the 10-year note futures contract over a nine-day period, on a scale of 0 to 100, fell below 30 yesterday for the first time since April 13. Readings below 30 indicate notes are ``oversold'' and likely to rise, while readings above 70 indicate they are ``overbought'' and likely to fall.

The 10-year yield closed at a two-month high of 4.76 percent on April 13 and declined more than 10 basis points over the next three days.

To contact the reporters on this story: Elizabeth Stanton in New York at estanton@bloomberg.net ; Annie Pinkert in New York at apinkert@bloomberg.net

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=a388a6jjo76Q&refer=bond

tsptalk
05-18-2007, 02:45 PM
Wow, bonds are getting hit again today. Stocks will benefit from a Fed rate cut but I think bonds are getting oversold and are a good buy over G fund for the next month.

vectorman
05-18-2007, 05:39 PM
Glass half full, attitude.

The AGG finished the day with a long black candlestick.

"After a long decline a long black candlestick can indicate panic or capitulation."

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:introducti on_to_candlesticks

Also, the VIX finished at a support line. If it moves up monday that may be a negative to sideway action for stocks. But if it breaks through to the downside, stocks will look good for a while longer.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=VIX

nnuut
05-18-2007, 09:43 PM
The "F" Fund,,,,,don't you just love it? Like a fickle woman!!!!!!!:D:D:D:D

vectorman
05-20-2007, 09:26 PM
The "F" Fund,,,,,don't you just love it? Like a fickle woman!!!!!!!:D:D:D:D

Nice one nnuut. lol


Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes closed Friday at 4.8 percent, as investors moved cash into stocks and away from safe-heaven bonds.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=aNETtlVi5vHg&refer=bond

No fear buying stocks at this level. No talk of downside risk. No more talk about nose bleed levels. No worries about China. People may say Bearish, but their actions say Bullish.

Interesting comment from, Arthur Cashin, UBS Financial Services director of floor operations.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=326078121&play=1

GUCHI
05-31-2007, 07:20 AM
how is it that the F fund chart shows above the prior day, but there was no gain ??????

350zCommTech
05-31-2007, 09:58 AM
The G is going to pay tomorrow but the bargain of the day is the F fund. It's taking a beating.

weatherweenie
05-31-2007, 10:01 AM
The G is going to pay tomorrow but the bargain of the day is the F fund. It's taking a beating.

My only concern with the F fund would be getting into a buy low, sell lower situation.

350zCommTech
05-31-2007, 04:11 PM
The G is going to pay tomorrow but the bargain of the day is the F fund. It's taking a beating.


My only concern with the F fund would be getting into a buy low, sell lower situation.

Yeah, and with my lack of luck with the F fund, it means I'll be selling lower.

Btw, what happened in the bond market today? Yields shot up after the Chicago PMI, but eventually finished just slightly up. Could 4.9% have been the ceiling for the 10 year yield? In hindsight, I probably should have just gone to the G for the sure penny.:(

350zCommTech
06-01-2007, 08:06 AM
Yeah, and with my lack of luck with the F fund, it means I'll be selling lower.

Btw, what happened in the bond market today? Yields shot up after the Chicago PMI, but eventually finished just slightly up. Could 4.9% have been the ceiling for the 10 year yield? In hindsight, I probably should have just gone to the G for the sure penny.:(

This morning's ED was just about perfect. The idiots on CNBC will be cheering "Goldilocks!!" Why do I keep making the same mistakes??

budnipper1
06-06-2007, 11:29 AM
My only concern with the F fund would be getting into a buy low, sell lower situation.

That's what I did...I should put the F fund on my "ignore" list.:mad: That AGG chart on Yahoo today looks like my last EKG...

LA_Guy
06-06-2007, 02:16 PM
I should put the F fund on my "ignore" list.:mad:

I second this motion. I hate F fund... Market up, F fund down.. Market down, F fund down.. No more F fund for me.

qibovin
06-07-2007, 11:13 AM
I second this motion. I hate F fund... Market up, F fund down.. Market down, F fund down.. No more F fund for me.

I agree with this. I feel a heckuva lot better getting spanked today in equities than I would if I were getting this Fμ¢&'d in the "safe haven."

LA_Guy
06-07-2007, 11:37 AM
I would think this F@#$%! F-fund would benefit from the rise of the 10-Year treasury note. No???

tsptalk
06-07-2007, 11:44 AM
Unfortunately for us, bond prices (F fund) go down when bond yields go up.

tsptalk
06-07-2007, 11:45 AM
So much for a Fed rate cut. This is strange.

LA_Guy
06-07-2007, 12:30 PM
I know very little about bond stuff so hope you guys don't mind if I ask some questions to educate myself a little bit more on bonds.

So when the F fund goes up??
And when the bond yields go down, does F fund go up then?

tsptalk
06-07-2007, 03:54 PM
Yes - yields down = higher bond prices and higher f fund.

vectorman
06-13-2007, 09:02 AM
Free Daily Analysis from stocktiming.com. Go to link at bottom to see chart.

The stock market has been dropping on inflation fears and rising bond yields in the past few days.

On Monday, we looked at the long term chart for 30 year bond yields. At that time, the
TYX's relative strength had gone above 70 ... which only happened only twice in the last
8 years. For both of those times, a 70 RSI was a sign that it was overextended. Those
levels turned out to be the short term peaks on yields and they retreated afterwards.

This week, the RSI on the 30 year bond yield continued to rise and went up to 75.15 yesterday.
This is an extremely high level which makes the odds favor that the 30 year bond yields will
pull back between now and Friday. Friday is when the CPI numbers will be announced.

A reversal on the 30 year bond yield would give a sigh of relief for investors and could be
a short term positive factor for the market's upside.




http://stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

vectorman
06-13-2007, 09:37 AM
PPI comes out tomorrow and CPI data on friday.

Definition
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a measure of the average price level for a fixed basket of capital and consumer goods received by producers. Why Investors Care ......

......"The bond market rallies when the PPI decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the PPI posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits."

http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/reports/US/EN/New_York/producer_price_index/year/2007/yearly/why_investors_care.html

Definition
The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation. Why investors care....

.... " Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion. "

http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/reports/US/EN/New_York/cpi/year/2007/yearly/why_investors_care.html

I added this post not to keep anyone from going into the market, but give info has to what news is coming out. The reward or loss may be great depending on how this inflation news is received. The next two days will be a big mover for bonds which will also set the tone for stocks. Inflation is the key word. If inflation is contained the rally in stocks continues, but if the numbers show inflation heating up watch out for a sell off. Bond yields have really climb laterly and have broken through a long term resistence level. Are they a leading indicator of the news to come? Also stocks are doing good this morning, but how do you think they will be positioned this afternoon ahead of the two biggest pieces of inflation data to come out the next two days?

Take note of the VIX as well. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=VIX

dell
06-14-2007, 07:46 AM
Is Ebb still advocating a move to the F fund for Thursday?

350zCommTech
06-14-2007, 02:44 PM
Yields are up again today. The F fund should lose a penny.

350zCommTech
06-14-2007, 02:55 PM
Is Ebb still advocating a move to the F fund for Thursday?

I know you meant to say Friday.

That's what his tracker is telling him to do. The key is tomorrow's CPI report. But if you think about it logically, in this current market, if bond yields drop on lower CPI, both bonds and stocks will go up. If his tracker is telling him that bond yields will drop tomorrow, then he probably should have stayed in the I fund. But I think it had to do more with the possibility of the markets sell-off. In that case, he probably should have gone to the G fund because if the markets sell-off tomorrow, it would be because of higher CPI. Which means that bonds would be selling off too.

Did I get that right Ebbnflow?:)

dell
06-14-2007, 06:22 PM
I guess maybe I said it wrong, but Ebb was advocating a move on Thursday to be invested on Friday.
If I made the move this Morning (Thurs) befoe noon, will I be invested at the closing price today or the closing price tomorrow?

Thanks - Dell

350zCommTech
06-14-2007, 07:09 PM
I guess maybe I said it wrong, but Ebb was advocating a move on Thursday to be invested on Friday.
If I made the move this Morning (Thurs) befoe noon, will I be invested at the closing price today or the closing price tomorrow?

Thanks - Dell

Because you asked the question this morning, I knew what you meant. make a move on Thursday or make a move for Friday. :)

As for your question, you will invested in the F fund at the closing price today.

dell
06-14-2007, 08:43 PM
Roger that.

Thanks.

ebbnflow
06-15-2007, 12:14 AM
I know you meant to say Friday.

That's what his tracker is telling him to do. The key is tomorrow's CPI report. But if you think about it logically, in this current market, if bond yields drop on lower CPI, both bonds and stocks will go up. If his tracker is telling him that bond yields will drop tomorrow, then he probably should have stayed in the I fund. But I think it had to do more with the possibility of the markets sell-off. In that case, he probably should have gone to the G fund because if the markets sell-off tomorrow, it would be because of higher CPI. Which means that bonds would be selling off too.

Did I get that right Ebbnflow?:)

Hopefully, it doesn't happen that way. Better for me would be a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario. A sell-off in stocks, but bonds get to recover. :)

350zCommTech
06-15-2007, 12:24 AM
Hopefully, it doesn't happen that way. Better for me would be a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario. A sell-off in stocks, but bonds get to recover. :)

I hope the CPI comes in low so that we both make money tomorrow.:D

ebbnflow
06-15-2007, 12:33 AM
Amen, I can live with that. :D

350zCommTech
06-15-2007, 07:43 AM
I hope the CPI comes in low so that we both make money tomorrow.:D


Amen, I can live with that. :D

It looks we'll both get what we want.:D

ebbnflow
06-16-2007, 02:45 PM
It looks we'll both get what we want.:D

Yep, you scored the touchdown and I end up being the waterboy. I always wanted to be the waterboy! :suspicious::D

vectorman
06-20-2007, 03:29 PM
What may have caused the rates to go crazy today...

Bank Reserve Settlement
Definition
A two-week period that ends every other Wednesday during which commercial banks must meet reserve requirements stipulated by the Federal Reserve.
Why Do Investors Care?
Sometimes banks are scrambling to meet their required reserve amount on Wednesday. If banks are having problems meeting reserve requirements, the federal funds rate market will feel the brunt of it since the federal funds rate is the rate which banks charge each other for the use of overnight funds. Usually, small regional banks have more than ample funds, while large money center banks are the ones in need of the funds because they loan their funds more extensively. Most of the time, small regional banks will lend overnight funds to large money center banks. When there is little liquidity in the banking system, the federal funds rate can shoot up sharply on a Wednesday because the money center banks are willing to pay whatever it takes in order that their reserves are meeting the Fed's requirements.

Oddly enough, liquidity trends can change over the course of the day. It isn't unusual to see the fed funds rate shoot up early in the day, but drop just as much near the end of the day. Consequently, since many short term rates are tied to the fed funds rate, short-term dated instruments such as 7-day CDs or even 30 and 60 day CDs can see their rates vary sharply on bank reserve settlement Wednesday.

Incidentally, not having funds to meet reserve requirements is usually not the sign of a bank in financial trouble. However, it is a sign of poor reserve management on the part of the bank since it covers prior week's reserves.

tsptalk
06-22-2007, 12:52 PM
We may be due some FV on the F-fund today. With the AGG currently up 0.08&#37;, we're looking at a possible .01 gain, but I wouldn't be surprised if we get an extra penny today.

tsptalk
06-22-2007, 02:32 PM
Looks like +.02 (AGG up .20&#37;) or possibly +.03 if we are owed that penny.

robo
06-23-2007, 09:09 AM
Bonds Continue To Weaken
by Carl Swenlin

On our first chart, a daily bar chart, we can see that bonds have been weakening for several months, with the most dramatic decline occurring in the last month or so. The question that comes to mind is whether this weakness is a correction in a longer-term up trend or the start of a more serious decline? Since the 50-EMA is below the 200-EMA, we have to assume that bonds have entered a long-term down trend. This situation could change fairly quickly, but for now we need to maintain negative assumptions.

Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. Be prepared to adjust your tactics and strategy if conditions change.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/070622_bonds.html


Short-term trading I'm still playing the F Fund in TSP. ( 20% moves normally) Might add some next week. Currently 100% G Fund. Two TA's I follow have a buy on Bonds for now.

Robo

FUTURESTRADER
07-02-2007, 10:34 AM
$TNX touched 5.00&#37;

350zCommTech
07-05-2007, 02:24 PM
$TNX touched 5.00&#37;

Big jump today. It's now at 5.144. It could be a 5 cent loss in the F fund. Big moves like this are scary. IMHO, this has nothing to do with inflation or the Fed since they weren't that hawkish in their announcement last week. I wonder if China is dumping our bonds again. Or it could be something worst...

I'm amazed at how the market is holding up in the face of all this. If yields move up again tomorrow on non-farm payroll, we might finally see some selling in the market.

350zCommTech
07-05-2007, 03:03 PM
Perhaps some of it was caused by the flight-to-safety into bonds due to UK terrorist activity prior to the 4th of July, and then the unwinding of those positions today when the holiday passed without any additional terrorist activity. This was suggested on briefing.com per the reference below.

After slipping below the psychologically significant 5.00% level earlier in the week, the yield on the 10-year note (-22/32) now up nine basis points from Tuesday's close has stirred up some of the borrowing concerns that weighed on equities last month. Treasuries are under pressure after the 4th of July passing without any terrorist activity removes a flight-to-safety premium. http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/briefing/StockTicker.asp

What flight to safety? Yields were up on Tuesday and so was the market. This move was too big for that.

As for today's economic data, the ISM was only up a tad and the ADP report doesn't usually cause this kind of a move. The governments' jobs number is the big market mover. Although, the jobs numbers could have been leaked and bond traders are getting a head start.:D

tsptalk
07-05-2007, 03:51 PM
The Bank of England raised rates 0.25&#37; today on inflation concerns. Their housing market is on fire over there.

tsptalk
07-12-2007, 12:18 PM
The yield on the 10-YEAR TREASURY NOTE has filled that 3rd gap I talked about Wednesday (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive/comments_7_11_07.html). This is a very important juncture for bonds. Will yields drop now that the gap is filled, or do they move up toward the old highs? That may be what determines what happens to stocks next week.

The_Technician
07-12-2007, 02:24 PM
The yield on the 10-YEAR TREASURY NOTE has filled that 3rd gap I talked about Wednesday (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive/comments_7_11_07.html). This is a very important juncture for bonds. Will yields drop now that the gap is filled, or do they move up toward the old highs? That may be what determines what happens to stocks next week.

Good point Tom,

The Crystal Balls have the F going down for a while....so stocks can continue on....

Carnac

tsptalk
07-12-2007, 02:56 PM
The Crystal Balls have the F going down for a while....so stocks can continue on....
F down, meaning bond yields going up?

The_Technician
07-12-2007, 04:58 PM
F down, meaning bond yields going up?

Yeap......

Carnac

350zCommTech
07-13-2007, 09:57 AM
This is bull ****! Yields were dropping on weaker than expected retail sales, but they have now reversed. Higher than expected consumer sentiment was bull ****. That makes no sense. They surely didn't vote with their pocket books. And of course, markets are continuing their assault. This has to be a suckers' rally.:mad:

vectorman
07-13-2007, 02:29 PM
This is bull ****! Yields were dropping on weaker than expected retail sales, but they have now reversed. Higher than expected consumer sentiment was bull ****. That makes no sense. They surely didn't vote with their pocket books. And of course, markets are continuing their assault. This has to be a suckers' rally.:mad:

That's why I hate the F fund. You still might get a penny out of it today.:blink:

350zCommTech
07-13-2007, 02:41 PM
That's why I hate the F fund. You still might get a penny out of it today.:blink:

I hope you're right. I stayed in the F fund waiting for the eventual flight to safety. It's not happening today, but maybe we get it on Monday?:D

vectorman
07-16-2007, 10:02 AM
Should be interesting for bonds this week. PPI, CPI news and Bernanke speaks. 30 yr T chart appears to be working on a pennant. Lets see if it breaks to the upside.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=TYX

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pennant.asp

qibovin
07-16-2007, 11:20 AM
Should be interesting for bonds this week. PPI, CPI news and Bernanke speaks. 30 yr T chart appears to be working on a pennant. Lets see if it breaks to the upside.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=TYX

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pennant.asp

Am I correct in concluding that if this chart "breaks to the upside," the F-fund will fall off a cliff?

vectorman
07-16-2007, 11:52 AM
Am I correct in concluding that if this chart "breaks to the upside," the F-fund will fall off a cliff?

I'm not saying the F fund is about to fall off a cliff, but if, I say again if, the chart breaks to the upside, yield goes up price goes down. The chart is showing a decreasing wedge pattern. Looks like a bounce off the 10yr T 5.59 today, next test may be the upper resistence between 5.11 to 5.13.Something will have to give soon. This will only effect those who want to go long, short plays may still get a little $ like ebbnflow moves since he uses previous patterns. No guarantees.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=&#37;5ETNX&t=5d
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=TYX
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pennant.asp

from a free site, info may be changed soon...

http://stocktiming.com/Thursday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

Griffin
07-18-2007, 10:14 AM
The TNX is flirting with dropping below 5.0 yield. If it does, the F-fund could make significant moves worthy of consideration as an investment strategy and not just an alternate Capital Protection fund. Something to keep in mind.

James48843
07-20-2007, 10:20 AM
"F" is looking strong again.

offtrack
07-20-2007, 10:32 AM
I'm not too fond of AGG holdings. Anyone have an opinion on how closely our fund tracks the AGG and how possible future bond downgrades would affect us?

James48843
07-20-2007, 11:23 AM
Question 1: AGG tracks almost exactly with "F", based on past share pricings. (98&#37; or more of the time). The only time I've seen differences over the past year or so is a very slight variation which can be attribtured to the "rounding off" of the price one way or another.

Question 2: I have no idea what "future bond downgrades" would do to "F" price.

offtrack
07-20-2007, 11:40 AM
Here are links on AGG and Barclay's US debt fund holdings

http://www6.ingretirementplans.com/custom/540.pdf

http://www.ishares.com/fund_info/holdings/holdings.jhtml?period=d&symbol=AGG

buda
07-24-2007, 09:38 PM
Moved 50&#37; into for Wednesday

Fivetears
08-08-2007, 08:58 PM
Treasurys Dive as Fed, China Rattle Bond Market
Treasury prices closed sharply lower Wednesday, sending yields higher, as traders continued to digest the Federal Reserve's latest statement on interest rates and on growing speculation that China may start selling U.S. government bonds. A rally in the U.S. stock market also drew investors away from the bond market. The market moved lower on renewed concerns of Chinese diversification out of dollar assets, the Fed's as-expected statement, and lack of any major buying motivation.
http://foxnews.smartmoney.com/bn/ON/index.cfm?story=ON-20070808-000809-1619

tsptalk
08-16-2007, 10:25 AM
Bond yields are deep in the red, yet the AGG is down. I thought I understood how this worked. :confused:

350zCommTech
08-16-2007, 10:37 AM
Bond yields are deep in the red, yet the AGG is down. I thought I understood how this worked. :confused:

Not to worry. That AGG charts is worthless for day to day use. I have the F fund up 2-3 pennies right now.

tsptalk
08-16-2007, 11:10 AM
Do you use another source for a quote? Someone had mentioned a TLT or something like that at one time.

Thanks

350zCommTech
08-16-2007, 11:25 AM
Do you use another source for a quote? Someone had mentioned a TLT or something like that at one time.

Thanks

You're going to laugh at this because it's a very simple process, but it works. All I do is look at bond yields such as $TNX or the bond yields page at cnnmoney.com. I take the yield changes of the 10yr and/or 30yr and divide by 2.

For example, right now, the yield change for $TNX is -.82. .82/2 = .4 or 4 a 4 cents gain. But the change in the 30yr is only -.48. .48/2 = .2 or a 2 cents gain. If the yields are +, then it's a loss.

So, my guess right now is a gain of 3-4 cents for the F fund.

tsptalk
08-16-2007, 11:43 AM
Nice! That makes more sense than a red AGG. Thanks for sharing.

350zCommTech
08-16-2007, 12:18 PM
Nice! That makes more sense than a red AGG. Thanks for sharing.

You're welcome,

Now, can I have a laser pen or a T-shirt?:D

350zCommTech
08-16-2007, 02:08 PM
Looks like 5 pennies in the F fund.:)

tsptalk
08-16-2007, 02:09 PM
You're welcome,

Now, can I have a laser pen or a T-shirt?:D
I'm sure you will be getting a T-shirt. How about some positive rep for now? :D

350zCommTech
08-16-2007, 02:16 PM
I'm sure you will be getting a T-shirt. How about some positive rep for now? :D


Great! Thank you.:)

350zCommTech
08-16-2007, 06:17 PM
We got robbed.

4 cent gain today. I guess it was 4.45 cents.:D

350zCommTech
08-21-2007, 09:52 AM
So far today, it's a 2 cent gain.:)

RPM
08-21-2007, 02:23 PM
Let me get this straight, right now 10 yrs is down 0.0440 (0.95%), i.e. 4.4 basis point. How would you do the calculation? Your example confused me, since I never saw the yield going down by 100 basis point before, if that's what you meant by 0.82 = 82 basis points.

Thanks,

350zCommTech
08-21-2007, 03:00 PM
Let me get this straight, right now 10 yrs is down 0.0440 (0.95%), i.e. 4.4 basis point. How would you do the calculation? Your example confused me, since I never saw the yield going down by 100 basis point before, if that's what you meant by 0.82 = 82 basis points.

Thanks,

You're off by a decimal point. It's .44 not .0440

.44/2 = .22 or +2 cents.

On last Thursday, the 10yr dropped as much as 1.06(106 basis points). It ended at .82. 1.06 would have given the F fund a 5 cent gain, assuming the 20yr and 30yr had similiar drops.

RPM
08-21-2007, 04:02 PM
Here is the quote for ^TNX, http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ETNX
how do you get the 0.44? (44 basis points?)
Thanks,

350zCommTech
08-21-2007, 04:26 PM
Here is the quote for ^TNX, http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ETNX
how do you get the 0.44? (44 basis points?)
Thanks,

LOL! No, it's not 44 basis points. You're right. I use stockcharts.com $TNX. The change is qouted at .44 but it's actually .044 as you pointed out. I've been ignoring it all along. I guess if my example had used the correct basis point, it would have more sense. Sorry.:D

budnipper1
08-22-2007, 10:06 AM
August 22 2007: 10:30 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com)
Yield on closely-watched three-month T-bill moves higher, suggesting investor nervousness is subsiding.

The yield on three-month Treasury bills, which have been the focus of the market this week, edged up to 3.62 percent from 3.58 percent late Tuesday, suggesting investors were no longer looking to the shorter-dated securities for safety. On Monday the yield on three-month bills posted the biggest drop since the stock market crash of 1987 as investors swooped in to buy up the securities. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/22/markets/bondcenter/bonds/index.htm?postversion=2007082210 (http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/22/markets/bondcenter/bonds/index.htm?postversion=2007082210)

350zCommTech
08-24-2007, 11:01 AM
Despite the stronger than expected new home sales and durable orders, the F fund is FLAT right now.:)

GUCHI
08-25-2007, 07:09 AM
i am confused the F chart declined all day , but later showed a .02 cent increase, how so ?????

Show-me
08-25-2007, 08:10 AM
It is like the I fund and efa chart. It tracks the F fund but does not mimic it exactly.

budnipper1
08-25-2007, 09:08 AM
i am confused the F chart declined all day , but later showed a .02 cent increase, how so ?????


You're going to laugh at this because it's a very simple process, but it works. All I do is look at bond yields such as $TNX or the bond yields page at cnnmoney.com. I take the yield changes of the 10yr and/or 30yr and divide by 2.

For example, right now, the yield change for $TNX is -.82. .82/2 = .4 or 4 a 4 cents gain. But the change in the 30yr is only -.48. .48/2 = .2 or a 2 cents gain. If the yields are +, then it's a loss.

So, my guess right now is a gain of 3-4 cents for the F fund.

(I'm hoping somebody will come up with a chart that shows an actual "real-time" indicator for the F. The AGG chart ain't that)

tsptalk
08-25-2007, 11:13 AM
It's [AGG] getting worse.

350zCommTech
08-25-2007, 02:46 PM
i am confused the F chart declined all day , but later showed a .02 cent increase, how so ?????
See next post.

350zCommTech
08-25-2007, 02:49 PM
Despite the stronger than expected new home sales and durable orders, the F fund is FLAT right now.:)


It's [AGG] getting worse.

Bond yields dropped in the afternoon yesterday to give the F fund a 2 cent gain.

350zCommTech
08-25-2007, 02:55 PM
(I'm hoping somebody will come up with a chart that shows an actual "real-time" indicator for the F. The AGG chart ain't that)

Perhaps ChemEng or Jayhawker can incorporate my F fund formula into their I fund spread sheet?

jayhawker
08-25-2007, 03:08 PM
Perhaps ChemEng or Jayhawker can incorporate my F fund formula into their I fund spread sheet?

I happen to be looking at this right now. I have to update TSPLookup anyway because the I Fund composition has changed.

What would say would be a good calculation? Should I average the 10 year and 30 year yields and then divide by -2?

Ed.

350zCommTech
08-25-2007, 05:08 PM
I happen to be looking at this right now. I have to update TSPLookup anyway because the I Fund composition has changed.

What would say would be a good calculation? Should I average the 10 year and 30 year yields and then divide by -2?

Ed.


Yup, that's it.

Yahoo symbols are ^TNX and ^TYX. You want the change in yields, not percentages.

Example: -(-.030+-.050)*0.25 = .02 cents

jayhawker
08-26-2007, 01:56 PM
Yup, that's it.

Yahoo symbols are ^TNX and ^TYX. You want the change in yields, not percentages.

Example: -(-.030+-.050)*0.25 = .02 cents

Thanks for your help. :)

350zCommTech
08-27-2007, 09:25 AM
A penny gain so far today.

350zCommTech
08-27-2007, 10:16 AM
A penny gain so far today.

Getting close to 2 cents.

clester
08-27-2007, 03:07 PM
What did we get today. 3 or 4 cents?

350zCommTech
08-27-2007, 03:26 PM
What did we get today. 3 or 4 cents?

2 cents.

350zCommTech
08-27-2007, 06:36 PM
2 cents.


We got robbed! I calculated 1.7 cents. I guess they rounded down.:(

budnipper1
08-27-2007, 06:48 PM
We got robbed! I calculated 1.7 cents. I guess they rounded down.:(

That's why they call it the F fund. :nuts:

nnuut
08-27-2007, 09:04 PM
From what I've seen it tends to even up. on occasion we have been in the minus category and make a penny. :D Doesn't work like the "I" fund, but may count for tomorrow.

350zCommTech
08-28-2007, 09:43 AM
As of right now, maybe a penny.

350zCommTech
08-28-2007, 11:10 AM
As of right now, maybe a penny.

Now showing 2 cents. Go F fund go....:)

350zCommTech
08-29-2007, 02:12 PM
So far, down a penny.

350zCommTech
08-31-2007, 09:38 AM
Currently down 2 cents.

wv-girl
09-04-2007, 10:46 AM
Any estimates for the F?
tia

jayhawker
09-04-2007, 10:51 AM
Any estimates for the F?
tia

Down a penny.

350zCommTech
09-04-2007, 10:51 AM
Any estimates for the F?
tia


So far, down 1 penny.

draggen3
09-05-2007, 07:51 AM
I loved this f fund play with all the talk about interest rate cut . but now im on the side that the fed wont cut interest rates , just discount rate thus keeping a lid on inflation.When everyone expects something make me afraid of this . Without interest rates going down then this wont be the place to be . Good luck

tsptalk
09-05-2007, 08:14 AM
Good point draggen. There are some very bright people on both sides of this argument so I don't know if a rate cut is a slam dunk. If they do cut, the dollar will get hit so we may want to look toward the I-fund. The F-fund may be a "sell the news" after a cut, and of course will likely be hit if there is no cut.

350zCommTech
09-05-2007, 08:32 AM
I loved this f fund play with all the talk about interest rate cut . but now im on the side that the fed wont cut interest rates , just discount rate thus keeping a lid on inflation.When everyone expects something make me afraid of this . Without interest rates going down then this wont be the place to be . Good luck

Not exactly, because the Fed doesn't control interest rates. It all depends on how the rate cut is perceived. If the cut is perceived as a rescue or bailout of Wall street, traders leave bonds and move back into stocks causing yields to rise, just like what happened on Aug. 17th when they cut the discount rate. On the other hand, if the cut is perceived as a move by the Fed to avert a recession, market tanks and yields fall making the F fund a good place to be.

But I do agree with you that a rate cut on the 18th is looking less likely. Friday's job's number might shed some light on that. If they don't cut, the markets will crash.:D

350zCommTech
09-05-2007, 09:29 AM
Currently up 3 pennies. Go F fund go.....:)

350zCommTech
09-05-2007, 11:47 AM
Currently up 3 pennies. Go F fund go.....:)

Getting close to 4 cents.

BTW, it looks like the AGG chart is tracking pretty close today. But as I've said before, it's useless.

350zCommTech
09-05-2007, 02:45 PM
Getting close to 4 cents.


My calculations shows a gain of 3.6 cents. Maybe we'll get 4.:)

clester
09-05-2007, 06:52 PM
Wow! 6 cents. Woohoo!

nnuut
09-05-2007, 06:57 PM
It will probably even up tomorrow, but 6 cents, I love it!!!:D

350zCommTech
09-05-2007, 07:41 PM
It will probably even up tomorrow, but 6 cents, I love it!!!:D

We'll find out tomorrow. If they don't take it back, then perhaps on certain days they use more than the 10yr and 30 yr.

nnuut
09-05-2007, 07:52 PM
Never thought of that, could be, but not logical, who said it had to be logical with the "F" fund?:confused:

350zCommTech
09-05-2007, 08:06 PM
Never thought of that, could be, but not logical, who said it had to be logical with the "F" fund?:confused:

Exactly, and the I fund is even worst. The things MSCI do with the I fund sometimes makes me wonder if it's even legal. Sure, it's a penny here and there, but it adds up over time.

ATCJeff
09-05-2007, 08:51 PM
It will probably even up tomorrow, but 6 cents, I love it!!!:D


Glad I followed Griffin and bailed. He made one comment about the F giving back sometimes and that was enough for me. It was like the light just flashed BAIL!!!!!

nnuut
09-05-2007, 09:12 PM
Ya never know, might be kinda scratchy tomorrow, OSM not doing to well, and Burntankle's comments didn't make the rate cut a sure thing by a long shot. Are we trying to revisit the previous lows:o?