ebbnflow's Account Talk

[ebbnflow]

I'm kicking myself right now. I should have been on the F Fund for today, but forgot to switch from the I Fund last Friday. I had been using the I Fund's volatile nature to my advantage, and doing good so far. April was great for the I Fund (+4.83%), I gained +4.93%, so no great difference there. But, the reverse was true for May (-3.87%). By swithcing between the I Fund and the F Fund, I managed to get a +2.39% return.

I got to stay more focused. This is my plan for the rest of the week:

Tomorrow - 100% I Fund
Wednesday - 100% F Fund (ITF before noon Tuesday from I Fund)
Thursday - 100% F Fund
Friday - 100% I Fund (ITF before noon Thursday from F Fund)

Since the beginning of the year, I'm ahead +15.51%. If not for my forgetfulness, I would have been on the F Fund today and still be ahead 17.49% for the year. Oh well, it's still a long year. Good luck everyone.

[Rod]

Welcome!

For tracking purposes and TSP.Talk you will not be at 15.51% for the year. The trackers will start you off fresh in (I).

[Rod]

Please post your moves here:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=46376#post46376

Ensure you post them prior to noon EST to be counted for tracking purposes.

[ebbnflow]

Thanks for the tip, Rod.

[ebbnflow]

Friday should be a buying frenzy for the I Fund. Still on the F Fund, but I'm on the I Fund for tomorrow and lucky we'll have a big rebound tomorrow.

[ebbnflow]

Staying put with the I Fund 100% for Monday as the Big Bounce continues...

[ebbnflow]

The week in review:

Monday and Tuesday - did not post IFT for tracking (wash)
Wednesday - F Fund - lost -.01 cents
Thursday - F Fund - won .02 cents
Friday - I Fund - won .12 cents

Good gain for the week!

[ebbnflow]

My tracking system is giving me the green light for the I Fund for the whole week next week. The Big Bounce should be in for the I Fund.

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Only playing between the F and the I Fund. That's all ya need.

[Rod]

My tracking system is giving me the green light for the I Fund for the whole week next week. The Big Bounce should be in for the I Fund.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Only playing between the F and the I Fund. That's all ya need.

I hope you're right! ALL Iyes are on you and your system.:cool:

[Rod]

My tracking system is giving me the green light for the I Fund for the whole week next week. The Big Bounce should be in for the I Fund.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Only playing between the F and the I Fund. That's all ya need.

Still have that green light???:blink:

[ebbnflow]

Funny thing about my new tracking system, it has subtle innuendos that needs to be read just right -- it's a work in progress. I read Monday and Tuesday as having minor bumps, but it turned out to be a CORRECTION. OUUCCCHHHH! I'm still bullish on the I Fund though.

[Rod]

Funny thing about my new tracking system, it has subtle innuendos that needs to be read just right -- it's a work in progress. I read Monday and Tuesday as having minor bumps, but it turned out to be a CORRECTION. OUUCCCHHHH! I'm still bullish on the I Fund though.

FWIW, good luck in calibrating your system. At least you have one.:cool:

[ebbnflow]

Thanks, been following this tracking system for six months now, and for the most part it's been great. I'm down to 9.15% profit before today for the year, but I think we've turned the corner. I see a minor bump for Thursday :blink:, but here's hoping it's a good bump upward.

[ebbnflow]

What a week this has turned out to be. For those who've held on to the I Fund, we've been rewarded with a big bounce that negates our loss early in the week. It's just what the doctor ordered, and after the last couple of days, tomorrow should be icing on the cake. I would be shuffling down to the F Fund for Monday. Have a good week everyone. :)

[ebbnflow]

The week in review:

Monday - I Fund - lost 31 cents
Tuesday - I Fund - lost 54 cents
Wednesday - I Fund - won 25 cents
Thursday - I Fund - won 58 cents
Friday - I Fund - lost 10 cents

Lost 12 cents in total. Not bad if we consider everything that transpired. Just hoped I could have read and timed it better. Ahh, there's always another week. I'll be on the F Fund beginning Monday, but I'd be back on the I Fund by Wednesday. Till then, have a nice weekend everybody. :D

[ebbnflow]

Nice to be tucked in the F Fund while the stocks took a beating again today. I expect more of the same tomorrow, and here's hoping my timing and positioning for this week pays off. I'm back on the I Fund Wednesday, but I might bail out on Thursday. I see a bump :worried: on Thusday and I only get the bumps right 50/50 (overall incl. bumps, I get 'em 70%-80%). :D

[ebbnflow]

Since I'm still on the F Fund, I'll take the loss of -.01 cent for today with a grain of salt :p. The I Fund showed up with a marginal gain of +.04 cents. This only affirms my position for Wednesday when I'd be on the I Fund. Let's just hope the market reaches a crescendo :rolleyes: by tomorrow. I would be jumping back to the F Fund for Thursday. :D

[ebbnflow]

That's more like it, a healthy gain of +.17 cents for today with a little help from our friend, the FV. http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/biggrinner.gif Unloading for Thusday and going back to the F Fund for cover. I see a bump :worried:, and I'm not comfortable with it. I'd rather pick my battle, so I'm stepping out. I'll be back on the I Fund for Friday as a cleaner, though. :cheesy:

[nnuut]

What kind of a bump is that ebbnflow?:o

[ebbnflow]

What kind of a bump is that ebbnflow?:o

You mean the thing that goes bump in the night? Well, everyweek after weighing all the variables from charts and indices, I look at the stock prices and compare them with past prices and try to discern any pattern or trend emerging. I then try to time the market in its state of flux, accordingly. Some people see "dead people," I see patterns and numbers, just like my avatar, Nostranumbus. :nuts:

As we all know, trading is part art, science, and sometimes a lot like golf actually, especially when you're trying to read the "breaks on the green." Oh yeah, getting back to the bumps, I usually get them about once or twice in a given week. These things don't line or add up, in other words, I don't have any idea if the market is going to go up or down that particular day. :blink:

[nnuut]

Yep, Just like me, a WAG based on previous disasters, numerically, of course.:D

[ebbnflow]

I'm already finalizing my moves for next week, I only need Friday's result to close the deal. There are two clear cut days to avoid being invested on stocks: Tuesday and Wednesday (I'll be seeking sanctuary on the F Fund). So far, two entry points looking good for the I Fund are Monday and Thursday. In the meantime, here's hoping the last day of the week (today) goes out with a bang. :D

[ebbnflow]

The week in review:

Monday - F Fund - even...................stocks took a pounding, I Fund was -.06 cents
Tuesday - F Fund - lost .01 cent........S Fund was down, but the I Fund was +.04 cents
Wednesday - I Fund - won .17 cents...stocks were all up
Thursday - F Fund - lost .02 cents......stocks were down, but I Fund was +.01 cent
Friday - I Fund - lost .08 cents...........only the S Fund was up

Not bad, I gained +.21% for the week. At least, I did better than the G Fund. http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/nutser.gif Overall, I was mostly in sync with the direction and pulse of the market. Next week, the best days for me to be in stocks are Monday, Thursday and Friday. Bad days for the market would be on Tuesday and Wednesday. Good luck everybody. :D

[ebbnflow]

It seems like my ebbnflow tracker is on the money again. Stocks are up, but not much for my I Fund (+.01). It looks like I'm riding the wrong horse with the dollar up! If I'm to switch horses, the S Fund (+.12) should be it. Anyways, I'll be keeping an eye on the situation. Good luck everybody. :D

[ebbnflow]

Going down memory lane: http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/biggrinner.gif

"Trying to anticipate the ups and downs of the market, an Army civilian employee transferred his entire $200,000 federal Thrift Savings Plan account balance between funds more than seven times in 1998..." Read more here. (http://www.govexec.com/features/0501/0501s1.htm)

Only seven times? Heck, in my estimation, I'd have more than 100 IFTs this year. Times a changin'. http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/nutser.gif

[ebbnflow]

There are two clear cut days to avoid being invested on stocks: Tuesday and Wednesday (I'll be seeking sanctuary on the F Fund). So far, two entry points looking good for the I Fund are Monday and Thursday.

Yep, that's exactly what I said last Friday. I would have been licking my wounds instead of collecting my two cents on the F Fund today. I couldn't have been more clearer. So far this week, the ebbnflow tracker is two for two, and come Thursday, a prelude to the Fourth of July fireworks might be in the offing. Good luck everybody. :D

[nnuut]

ebbnflow,
Just a suggestion, be a little more humble before the market humbles you.;)

[ebbnflow]

I was just thinking about the same thing. But then I thought, I got to bring attention to my tracking system first. Let people see that they can make some good decisions if they take the time to look around and check. And besides, it is all done in good fun, we all know that. I know what you mean though, the market can be very humbling, it's just that it hasn't happened to me yet. Oops, there I go again. :nuts:

I'm telling you, a lot of people got so much pride when it comes to trading. I have a cousin who has lost big time already sitting on one stock waiting for it to go back up again. I know it takes a lot of convincing to make people make up their minds. I'm just trying to sell my philosophy right now, and hopefully some people can see the light. :D

I'm also trying to dispel the notion that market timing doesn't work. With more than two IFTs a week, no one can tell me that I would be caught with my pants down when a rally comes in, or that I'd sit on my hands while the market plummets. Since everything has a cycle, I track the market from day to day and try to get its pulse. By the way, I can see you're still p***ed off for not listening to my advice after telling me you would. Oh well, you can't win 'em all. ;)

[nnuut]

Good words ebbnflow, I think you've got it! I only get mad at myself when I do something stupid. You know it's so easy to lose your butt by making the wrong move at the wrong time, and sometimes i'm a little too conservative and miss a chance to make money. Nobody is perfect i'm just Chicken!!:D
Good luck with your investments.

[ebbnflow]

Ate some humble pie :sick: yesterday (lost -.01 cent), but we're back with a vengeance today. Our cup overfloweth with three out of four days on the plus side. We've been patient all month long and got rewarded with a whopping 3.40% or +.63 cents. Let's hope the gravy train hasn't run out for Friday. :D

[Wheels]

Hey Ebb. Nice hit today. You may want to seriously consider getting out of the I for Monday. They applied FV to the I for like the 3rd day in a row. It is currently overpriced by roughly 40 cents. They will be taking that back soon, but they don't always do it the very next day. It would be cool if you could escape with some of that 40 cents still in your account!!

Dave
<><

[ebbnflow]

Thanks for the heads-up, Wheels. The FV sure is weighing heavily on my mind, but since I'm still on the I Fund for today, and there's a good possibility the FV would come into play, I'm thinking of rolling the dice (getting too greedy, I know). Everything would be copacetic just as long as we have a repeat of yesterday's action. :D

[ebbnflow]

We asked for it, we got it -- a repeat of yesterday's action. :D We ended up with a gain of +.26 cents for the day, even though an FV of -.42 cents was taken off the top. :blink: We end the month (6/07/06 start) with a profit of over 5%. :nuts:

[ebbnflow]

The Week in Review:

MON -- I Fund -- won +.01 cent......F -.01 C +.07 S +.12 -- got it right, but only got a measly cent
TUE -- F Fund -- won +.02 cents.....I -.16 C -.13 S -.20 -- called it right again, bad day at the market
WED -- F Fund -- lost -.01 cent.....I +.11 C +.08 S +.05 -- missfired, missed out on I Fund's +.11 cent gain
THU -- I Fund -- won +.63 cents.....F +.02 C +.29 S +.49 -- tracker expected fireworks, it delivered in spades
FRI -- I Fund -- won +.26 cents.....F +.04 C -.03 S +.26 -- best weekly gain for the month

Up +4.935% for the week, picking four out of five days right. http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/nutser.gif For the month (I started posting at 6/07/06), I was 61% (11 out of 18 days) right. I know I mentioned before that I get over 70% of my picks right, but that's from the start of the year to now. Last month (May), the figure was at 72% (16 out of 22 days). Here's hoping July brings more of the same. For next week, I expect the I Fund to outperform all the other funds. The only thing I have to watch out for is Friday's bump. :blink: I may have to switch to the F Fund for that day. Good luck everybody. :D

[Wheels]

Just to be clear, you're right/wrong scorecard is only comparing F and I, is that correct?

Thanks,
Dave
<><

[ebbnflow]

That's correct Wheels, even if I guess the trend of the market for that day, if I don't beat the F Fund/I Fund, I count it as a loss. I'm harsh on my tracking system. :D

[ebbnflow]

Leafing through the MB, I came upon a TSPer making more IFTs (3-5 in a week?) :blink: than...well myself! This guy reminds me of a kid in a candy store the way he trades. Compared to the Wizard of Oz :cheesy:, I look like an old guy in a wheelchair, and I make two IFTs a week on average. And guess what, so far he's fared better than anybody on this board managing his TSP. The WOZ leads the way in giving us a new perspective on how to beat the market. Yeah, kind of makes you think out of the box, doesn't it? And that ain't a bad thing. :D

[CheapShot]

That's correct Wheels, even if I guess the trend of the market for that day, if I don't beat the F Fund/I Fund, I count it as a loss. I'm harsh on my tracking system.
Just go opposite of me when ever you catch me in the F Fund I don't beleive I have ever made a penny in that Fund.

[ebbnflow]

Thanks Cheapshot, I'll be keeping that in mind. The F Fund seems to have fallen out of favor on this board and fast becoming more and more of an afterthought.

What's going on here? NK missiles, job reports, we've been warned about this before. But after seeing how Thursday is shaping up, I was perplexed as to how my trusty tracker can possibly misfire two days in a row. :rolleyes: I double-checked Wednesday's input and output, same result, my tracker simply misfired (no big deal). Checked for Thursday's and it's giving me a different output (F Fund for safety), but I got a clear signal for the I Fund before! I said to myself, maybe instead of typing July 6 as the target date, I mistakenly typed in June 6. :embarrest: Sure enough, that was the problem, besides me being careless and stupid, of course. Dang, I just hope it doesn't cost me that much for Thursday. No worries though, it's still early in the month, so recouping losses for this week should be easier. I've already pegged next week's Monday and Tuesday as very good days for the market. I'll be back in the hunt by then, but in the meantime, I'm moving to the F Fund for Friday as planned. Good luck everyone. :D

Just for fun and to give people an idea on tracking cycles and how important it is to target the right date, I remember coming across this nifty biorhythm program (don't take it seriously now), so you might want to check it out. FWIW, maybe you can try excusing yourself from work using the chart's printout result instead of a doctor's note. :cheesy: Click here (http://www.sleepnet.com/bio.htm) for the link.

[ebbnflow]

Lady luck happened to smile upon the I Fund today, even though it had the early markings of doom and gloom written all over it. I'm taking today's mistake (I should have been on the F Fund) in stride. I figure the market still owes me 70 cents (now it's 14 cents less) :cheesy: for the couple of times I forgot to switch funds and got burned for it. Everything evens out in the end, and as the old saying goes, "never look a gift horse in the mouth." :D

[Fivetears]

Saw your morning move. In most cases... very risky to place an IFT to the I Fund for COB on a Friday. Lots can happen over a weekend. Good Luck :)

[FUTURESTRADER]

nice job 100% in F today, ebb

[ebbnflow]

Thanks Fivetears, FUTURESTRADER. The I Fund should be in good shape for Monday and Tuesday, especially with the dollar down. I don't think the market is going to be blindsided by North Korean thingydong missiles :blink: anytime soon, so that's one less distraction to worry about. Some quarterly reports are due out this week, but that's about it. :D

The ebbnflow tracker actually showed some profit for the week (+.07%) with three of four days on the plus side, thanks to a fortuitous mistake on my part (I'm not ruling out divine intervention). :nuts: Since my 6/07/06 post, I have gone to the F Fund (for safety) a total of eight days and is in the black with a profit of +.02 cents, thanks to Friday's gain. I also stayed on the I Fund a total of 14 days and shown a healthy gain of +.95 cents. By comparison, if I chose to ride each fund exclusively for that time period, the results would be: for the F Fund -.03 cents, the I Fund +.33 cents. So far, four of the five weeks I've tracked have shown a profit. One thing I like about the strategy of day-to-day trading is the ability to accumulate not only profits, but actually gaining more shares in the process. Staying and waiting for one fund to go up and down won't do it for me because I'm trying to maximize my profits as fast as I can. :)

[ebbnflow]

The market was good for Monday with only the S Fund showing a negative return (-.02) and Tuesday was also good with only the I Fund this time showing a loss (-.02). Staying put on the I Fund for Wednesday and Thursday, but going for safety to the F Fund on Friday. Good Luck. :)

[ebbnflow]

Mama told me there'd be days like this. :mad: Moved to the F Fund for Friday as planned. I should be back on the I Fund by Tuesday when the dust clears. :notrust:

[ebbnflow]

Haven't been updating lately, but the ebbnflow tracker is still on top of things. While the I Fund is taking a beating (-3.71%), we're only down -1.51% for the month. All the bobbing and weaving through potholes seem to be paying off. We still have +.20 cents coming to us courtesy of the FV this Friday. I hope we get it today because I've put an IFT to the F Fund for Monday already. Good luck all. :)

[Gilligan]

Haven't been updating lately, but the ebbnflow tracker is still on top of things. While the I Fund is taking a beating (-3.71%), we're only down -1.51% for the month. All the bobbing and weaving through potholes seem to be paying off. We still have +.20 cents coming to us courtesy of the FV this Friday. I hope we get it today because I've put an IFT to the F Fund for Monday already. Good luck all. :)
EBB,
I see that you only trade the F & I but you may want to consider going to the G today instead of the F with the penny being paid Monday.

[ocean]

While the I Fund is taking a beating (-3.71%), we're only down -1.51% for the month. :)

EBB,

Congrats you hit the I fund perfectly the other day. While you referred your EBB tracker as "we", are you working this tracker as a group and one day you may provide some advice on a fee base?

Ocean

[ebbnflow]

Thanks for the heads-up Gilligan, but the last time I tried to pick up a penny, it was stuck on the floor with a hardened chewing gum. :o Besides, I wouldn't want to change my sig to: "Playin' only the I, F and G Fund." :p

Hiya, Ocean! It's alive I tell ya, the ebb tracker has begun to take on an entity of its own! :blink: And no, we don't need the added pressure, but if someone wants to give me some money, I wouldn't turn it down. :D

[ocean]

Thanks EBB, I like free info and keep feeding us.

Ocean

[ebbnflow]

Finished plugging in the variables to track next week's cycles to the ebb tracker. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday are definitely not looking good (staying on the F Fund). A good entry point to go back to stocks is Thursday (back to the I Fund). :)

Folks, I guess those Israeli reservists coming to Lebanon are not just background noise. They are there to stay for a while and it's going to take some time for that noise to die down (talk about half-life). :blink: I'm only behind by -1.03% for the month, so recovering the loss can wait. :D

[ebbnflow]

Can't wait for EWGUY's TSP tracker for this week. By the way, you're doing a great job. I want to compare it with my excel input (I think I erred). I may be down less than -1.03%. :nuts:

Before I forget, congrats to Nnuut, our new Moderator. Got some big shoes to fill (Godspeed to Rod), but I'm sure Nnutt will do fine. Nnuut, when do you get to have your 'Club TSP' title changed to Moderator? Now that you've become a made man, you better watch your back. :blink:

[nnuut]

Thanks a bunch EbbnF, I'll do the best job I can without gettin' MAD! The other day I was listed as a Moderator, Just disappeared? Who, cares? Just here to help Tom and Spaf they ARE doing a GREAT JOB.:D

[ebbnflow]

Change of plan because of change in data.
Tuesday - I will be on I Fund (only change from original plan). :D
Wednesday - I will be on F Fund (no change).
Thursday - I will be on I Fund (no change).
Friday - I will be on I Fund (no change).

[ebbnflow]

I'll be on the I Fund Tuesday and be back on the F Fund (for safety) on Wednesday. I hate missing good rallies like Monday's, and I don't miss much of those, but...

"...We can't control the markets just as we can't control the future. So, the winners are simply those best positioned to benefit from a future not yet seen"...Jonathon Hoenig :)

[ebbnflow]

Have to wait tonight to see if the I Fund beat the F Fund. I sure don't want to be in stocks tomorrow after two days of rally. :blink: The ebb tracker is seeing profit-taking in the works. Trying to read the market, gestalt and all, is what it's all about, and having fun while doing it, of course. :D

[nnuut]

Thought they were taking the profit today!?? Darn that 12:00 deadline!!:mad:

[ebbnflow]

As far as market direction goes, the ebb tracker is right on target again, but it looks like the FV is going to hand me the short end of the stick for the second time also. :mad: We only have 3 days left to make up ground for this month. It's been brutal, but hopefully with the dollar down, tomorrow will be the day. :D

[ebbnflow]

The ebb tracker got blindsided by the FV two days in a row. Today the I Fund's strong showing prevailed with a gain of +.10 cents, despite an FV correction of -.14 cents and another FV of -.16 cents being assessed. I just hope they give it back by tomorrow because I would be back on the F Fund by Monday. :)

[ebbnflow]

Retire, I'm answering your question from my Account thread on this thread (Account Talk) because we're not supposed to put anything besides our IFTs on that thread. You're right about me making an IFT (interfund transfer) from the I Fund before noon Friday in order to be on the F Fund for Monday. I track the market through it's cycles from the previous week and that gives me a day to a week in advance on what to expect of it. No need for me to watch how it goes til 12:00 noon because I'm all set by then. :)

[Retire]

EBB,
Thanks for the reply! I have been IFTng my TSP for about 6 years. While I have done well over the years, I have not done that well this past few months. I'm trying to break out of a capital preservation mindset I find myself in these past few months. I too like the I fund, but have been too conservative and missed many good IFT's. You mention the EBB tracker. Is that private stock, or do you share it with others? I imagine your posts are the extent of what you share? As stated, I am new to this website, and have alot of catching up to do to figure out what the strategies are of some posters.

Thanks for the reply, looking forward to seeing your trades.

[ebbnflow]

You're welcome, Retire. I know what you mean, we all have to deal with our own risk/pain tolerance. Anyways, the TSP Tracker had me at +5.28% for the month of June (I started posting at 06/07/06). This month I'm only down -.12% (two cents worth), so I could be back in the black today if the I Fund cooperates. :nuts:

The ebb tracker is what I named the system I've been developing since last year to help me time the market better. I had great results backtesting last year's data using the ebb tracker, but since I was still tweaking the system at the time, I couldn't say for sure if any of the results were just self-fulfilling prophecy or not. :blink:

I had to try it out this year for real (not on paper or simulated) before I can be certain it's doing the job it's supposed to do, and so far it hasn't disappointed (+19.40% YTD). A lot of technical analysts are predicting little change or gain the rest of the year for equities with high volatility thrown in between. Watch those choppy waters, good luck and have fun investing. :D

[ebbnflow]

The week started bleak, but the ebb tracker was able to salvage the month with a +1.87% gain for the day. The ebb tracker is at +1.75% while the I Fund is at +1.03% for the month. With only one more day left for July, the I Fund can still beat me. That's because I made an interfund transfer to the F Fund for Monday. :cheesy: Tally for the ebb tracker for almost two months is a healthy +7.03%. :nuts:

[ebbnflow]

The ebb tracker has been tracked for eight weeks and shown a profit in six of them (W6/L2) for a gain of +7.03%. For next week, this is the plan:

Monday - 100% F Fund
Tuesday - 100% I Fund
Wednesday - 100% I Fund
Thursday - 100% I Fund (only day I'm worried about)
Friday - 100% I Fund

Have a good weekend to all and good luck for next week. One more thing, I think I would be remiss if I don't redirect your attention to this thread:

Pomegranate and me (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=3080#2) :)

[ebbnflow]

The ebb tracker is running contrarian all week, it's a tough sell, but so far so good. :D

[ebbnflow]

Where's an FV when you need one? :notrust: Oh well, the ebb tracker did warn me about this day (only the C and S Fund went up). Tomorrow should be a good one for the I Fund, though. I'm also staying put on the I Fund for Monday. :nuts: I'm not seeing any sell signals yet. As for the rest of next week, I have to wait for Friday. :D

[Retire]

Where was this assessment earlier in the day? Trying to step out of the boat I went 1/2 S&I, had not seen you post so I was to nervous to go 100% I. :embarrest:

[ebbnflow]

I usually post all my moves a week or days ahead of time. Check out 07/29/2006 (post#64). :)

[ebbnflow]

It's another good week for the ebb tracker. When I found out it's going contrarian all week I had my doubts, but it's a good thing I didn't go against it. I can tell you right now, without the ebb tracker, I'd be lost. :nuts: This week, we had a +.12 cents (+.61%) gain. In the nine weeks it's been tracked, it's shown a profit in seven (7Wins/2Losses). Yep, I can feel the hubris flowing, but I know there's still a lot of work to be done. :D

[ChemEng]

How are you counting your win/loss ratio? Is it just the number of days you get a + return against number of daya get - return? Or is there something more to it?

[ebbnflow]

I've started posting my IFTs since 06/07/2006. That's about nine weeks of being tracked by the TSP Tracker. A winning week for me is anytime I get a positive return for the week. Tracking aside, YTD, every month the ebb tracker has shown a profit (no negative returns). Knock on wood. :D

[ebbnflow]

The ebb tracker has laid the tracks for most of next week. So here goes nothing...Boss, the plan, the plan! :D

Monday - 100% on the I Fund
Tuesday - 100% on the F Fund
Wednesday - 100% on the I Fund
Thursday - 100% on the I Fund
Friday - Gotta wait!

Good luck for next week. :)

[Retire]

I must admit, I am intrigued by the ebb tracker. Trying to follow your posts, when you say:

Monday - 100% on the I Fund
Tuesday - 100% on the F Fund
Wednesday - 100% on the I Fund
Thursday - 100% on the I Fund
Friday - Gotta wait!

Does that mean IFT on Monday or IFT Tuesday? Thanks for your patience; I'm trying not to interrogate you to death, though it may seem so.:worried:

[ebbnflow]

No problem, Retire. Let's see: :)

For Monday (I want to remain on the I Fund), I don't have to make any IFT because I'm already on the I Fund.
For Tuesday (I want to be on the F Fund), I'd have to make an IFT before noon Monday to be on the F Fund.
For Wednesday (I want to be back on the I Fund), I'd have to make an IFT before noon Tuesday to be back on the I Fund. :D

[TSP-roulette]

Greetings Ebbnflow: Just wondering if your fund distributions will be the same as last week's. I believe you mentioned staying in "I" fund at least for this coming Mon Aug 7th. and that you were waiting for Friday's market results to decide on next week's distribution. I use "S" fund often when deciding on IFT's, but have made some nice strides with "I" fund, thanks to the good info you provide in your posts. Anyway, just wondering what your thoughts about the "I" fund are for next week. I don't post often; I joined the forum 2 years ago but the computer cops at work decided to block the web site. I have a long commute to work and back home. A part time job on weekends to make ends meet leaves little time but to just quickly lurke and read the good info a lot of you good people provide. Anyway, thanks for posting your fund strategies and thanks to the rest of the forum members likewise.

TSP-roulette

[ebbnflow]

Nice of you to drop by, TSP-roulette. I already posted my moves for the coming week on page six (post#72). Here is the link: click here ("http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=6#72).
Don't go overboard now and do some capital preservation (better to be safe than sorry). :D I only go 100% because I got some more years left before retirement. :)

[ebbnflow]

Got robbed by the FV again (+.18 cents) today, but hopefully we'd get it back Thursday because I'm going back to the F Fund for Friday. :D

[ebbnflow]

I'm back on the F fund today (Friday), and for the third time in a row, I'm going to end up with a negative return coming on the 2nd week of each month (June, July and August). :mad: I won't be chasing a win for the week by going with the I fund, though, the ebb tracker is seeing red for today and Monday of next week. :D Staying away from the I fund for a couple of days. :)

[ebbnflow]

The ebb tracker was mostly right all week concerning the direction of the market. It didn't win anything, but didn't lose much ground, either. Out of ten weeks, it has won in seven and lost in only three. Funny thing though, all of the three losses came on the 2nd week of every month (June, July and August). Maybe I should just avoid the 2nd week of every month. :D

[ebbnflow]

I did some analysis about the actual strength and weakness of the ebb tracker's record on guessing the direction of the market from 06/07/06 to 08/11/06. I'm only looking at the equity funds of C, S, and I. An upward direction would be if two or more funds were up (good to be in the C, S and I). And a downward direction would be if two or more funds were down (we should be in the G or F fund for safety).

During this time period, the market was up only 20 times and was down 27 times (43%), it was tough pickings! However, the ebb tracker was right in predicting the market direction 29 times and was wrong 18 times (62%). More telling was its record in staying out of trouble. When the ebb tracker told me it was bad to be in the market, it was right 12 times and was wrong only 3 times (80%). :nuts: When the ebb tracker told me to be in stocks, it was right 17 times and wrong 15 times (53%). That surprised me as a bit low. :D

[ebbnflow]

Looks like I'm going to miss the ceasefire rally today. I hope there's something left for Tuesday, I just made an IFT back to the I fund. :D

[ebbnflow]

Monday's rally fizzled, but Tuesday's rally turned out to be the real deal (wire-to-wire). The I fund gained +.30 cents and we're back on the black for the month of August. Staying with the I fund till Wednesday, but will be back on the F fund for safety on Thursday. Good luck for tomorrow. :)

[ebbnflow]

Made an IFT to be on the I fund for Friday. If we get a sell-off today, it might be a good time to catch a bounce. :D

[ebbnflow]

The market has'nt had a five-bagger in a long while. Hoping for an FV on the I find today. I see the ebb tracker not shying away from more baggers early next week. We know the market is preggers, but how long can she hold it in? :D

[ebbnflow]

This week's harvest was plentiful with all three equity funds (C, S and I) showing gains. It turned out the ebb tracker didn't have to do any work at all. Like last week, it went three out of five predicting the day-to-day direction of the market, but only this time, we saw lots of green. For the record, the ebb tracker has shown a profit in eight out of eleven weeks it has been tracked (8Wins/3Losses). Next week, we still have to see the full extent of the Japanese market's reaction from China raising its interest rate. Monday should be interesting, if not good for the I fund. Good luck for next week. :D

[ebbnflow]

The way the markets were going, I didn't expect to gain anything, but as it turned out the dollar took a pounding from the pound and euro. The I fund ended up with decent gain of +.04 cents. I'm sticking with the I fund for tomorrow (Tuesday) and will go for safety to the F fund for Wednesday. We might expect a lot of red by then. Good luck and be well. :D

[ebbnflow]

The Feds spoiled it for the I fund (-.04 cents) yesterday by raising fear on inflation. What is lurking around the corner -- inflation or recession? Which camp do we believe? Switching to the I Fund for Thursday. Good luck. :D

[ebbnflow]

The only thing I can ask of the ebb tracker is to take a good guess at the market's day-to-day movement. It guessed up for today (which it was barely), but unfortunately the I fund got left behind (-.04 cents). The foreign markets seem poised to follow the U.S. market's trend for tonight and with the U.S. dollar moving downward, we should be in good position to gain a profit by tomorrow. The market is also seeking any bit of positive news for it to rally on, Mr Bernanke's talk might provide one for us. :blink: Still on the I fund and down -.04 cents for the week. Good luck to all. :D

[ebbnflow]

The ebb tracker didn't get the job done last week (-.13 cents), but it's still up over one percent for the month of August with Monday's gain of +.06 cents. The dollar seems to be on the down trend and for the first time in a long while the Asian markets are up tonight. I will remain on the I fund for Tuesday and going for safety on Wednesday to the F fund. Good luck all. :D

[FundSurfer]

What is making you dive for F at this point? Expecting an up day today and reverse bounce tommorrow? Or are you expecting some of the economic data to not be good? (I think with so much data being released that we will get mixed signals and the market will flounder about this afternoon and tommorrow after a morning rise.) Just curious if your decision is gut based, chart based, or news cycle based.

[grandma]

Just curious if your decision is gut based, chart based, or news cycle based.
Me too...did I make my move too soon? :(
Your Avatar is a Dandy !!!! :D Keep it !!

[ebbnflow]

What is making you dive for F at this point? Expecting an up day today and reverse bounce tommorrow? Or are you expecting some of the economic data to not be good? (I think with so much data being released that we will get mixed signals and the market will flounder about this afternoon and tommorrow after a morning rise.) Just curious if your decision is gut based, chart based, or news cycle based.

Hi ya FundSurfer! I'm through following my emotions when it comes to reading the market. I've also tried coaxing the market to listen to me, but it's just plain too ornery. :D Now, I leave it all up to the ebb tracker. A little truism: The more absolute the system and the less subjective it is, the better. :)


Me too...did I make my move too soon? :(
Your Avatar is a Dandy !!!! :D Keep it !!

Hi ya Grandma! Glad you liked it. I still need to smooth it out a bit (hard when you have only 20kb to work with). I'm trying out some of the new avatars I captured from advertisement banners. In the meantime, my old avatar Nostranumbus is taking a much needed respite.

[FundSurfer]

I leave it all up to the ebb tracker. A little truism: The more absolute the system and the less subjective it is, the better.

I agree. Just curious what signal caused the ebb tracker to switch. Guess I've been watching your moves and I have not been able to figure a basis for your decisions. I have noticed that you have made good moves and done well. Your moves also seem to be planned days in advance or at least that is the impression you've given on a couple occasions. What is the absolute data you're analyzing?

[ebbnflow]

I agree. Just curious what signal caused the ebb tracker to switch. Guess I've been watching your moves and I have not been able to figure a basis for your decisions. I have noticed that you have made good moves and done well. Your moves also seem to be planned days in advance or at least that is the impression you've given on a couple occasions. What is the absolute data you're analyzing?

I base my decisions on the premise that everything has a cycle. To wit: the dollar like the market has its ebbs and flows. I study the output I get from the ebb tracker after tracking the dollar in relation to the major foreign currencies (euro, yen and pound). I have tons of patterns stored by the ebb tracker and by comparing the present pattern from the closest match I get from the stored data, I get to see a trend form. This trend tells me if it's either going downward or upward. The more the pattern shows up, the stronger the trend and the more likely I'm going to guess it right. :D It's getting less and less frequent that the ebb tracker comes across a pattern it hasn't seen yet. I also check for the I-fund's price and its fluctuations for patterns and trends.

I watch the S&P 500's support/resistance level, and the news. But I try not to put too much weight on things I can't control because the best I could do is guess on it's probability to affect the market. After running my checklist, I'm good to go. :D

[EW_ret]

We discovered this sign at the aquarium on island of Maui, Hawaii. I thought of you and took picture. I can email you the full image if you cannot read it.:)

[ebbnflow]

We discovered this sign at the aquarium on island of Maui, Hawaii. I thought of you and took picture. I can email you the full image if you cannot read it.:)

Saved the picture, thanks EWGuy! I can just imagine the beautiful rhythm of life on Hawai'i's pristine beaches. Makes me want to go to the beach and play some beach golf (stick standard golf hole cups in sand, flagsticks optional). :)

[ebbnflow]

Yes! The ebb tracker actually picked up a penny from the F-fund while the I-fund got flatlined with a negative FV correction (-.15 cents). I will be staying put on the F-fund for Thursday, but I will be back on the I-fund for Friday. Good luck to all. :D

[Griffin]

I base my decisions on the premise that everything has a cycle......comparing the present pattern from the closest match I get from the stored data, I get to see a trend form.......I also check for the I-fund's price and its fluctuations for patterns and trends.......After running my checklist, I'm good to go. :D

Ebb,

I thought I would let you know that I have also been watching your moves and have found it fascinating that you call your moves days in advance and stick to them.

It sounds to me like you are using chart patterns, sort of. I keep a running spreadsheet that graphically represents daily returns. I find that there is a lot of good information in analyzing just the returns data void of actual prices. Are you doing something similiar?

Much of my process is based on a projection of the formation of patterns and while I anticipate a window in which I expect the patterns to form. I don't set a hard timeline.

What advantage do you feel you gain by setting these strict timelines?

[ebbnflow]

I thought I would let you know that I have also been watching your moves and have found it fascinating that you call your moves days in advance and stick to them.

It sounds to me like you are using chart patterns, sort of. I keep a running spreadsheet that graphically represents daily returns. I find that there is a lot of good information in analyzing just the returns data void of actual prices. Are you doing something similiar?

Much of my process is based on a projection of the formation of patterns and while I anticipate a window in which I expect the patterns to form. I don't set a hard timeline.

What advantage do you feel you gain by setting these strict timelines?

Good Griffin, thanks! The timelines I adhere to are dictated by trends I get from the ebb tracker. Laying the track for the week is dependent on the trends from last week's patterns. And depending on the patterns it came from, each trend has a short half-life of from one to four days. That about covers most of the week in advance. I then arrive at a concensus from the uptrends and downtrends that overlap for each day of the week. :)

So far, knock on wood, I haven't gotten a negative return throughout the year using the ebb tracker (more if you count backtesting). My goal is to reach over 30% return for the year. :nuts: By the way, I stopped posting my moves too far ahead of time because I find a lot of people getting confused. Anyways, I'm glad to know you're also following patterns and trends. God knows we need all the edge we can get. :D

[Griffin]

....each trend has a short half-life of from one to four days.....

....My goal is to reach over 30% return for the year......



3-6 trading days is the time frame that I use. I believe the day to day stuff is impossible to manage.

I never tell people what to do, but 30% is a very ambitious goal....potentially setting you up for frustration and gambling - not a winning combination :D

My goal is to beat the best performing fund with a a secondary goal of 2-3% extra. I like reasonable doable goals with a margin for error..... they lead to a permenant state of bliss :nuts:

[Wheels]

My goal is to beat the best performing fund with a a secondary goal of 2-3% extra.

This is almost my goal exactly when each year begins (since 2003 when I began my more proactive management of my TSP). Unfortunately I've never attained my goal. But I have managed to solidly beat the C fund each year so that's something I guess.

Ebb, how long have you been shooting for 30% a year? And I hesitate to ask this since we can't confirm your answer, but have you ever attained it?

[ebbnflow]

This is almost my goal exactly when each year begins (since 2003 when I began my more proactive management of my TSP). Unfortunately I've never attained my goal. But I have managed to solidly beat the C fund each year so that's something I guess.

Ebb, how long have you been shooting for 30% a year? And I hesitate to ask this since we can't confirm your answer, but have you ever attained it?

How ya doing, Wheels! I have been shooting for a goal of +30% since the start of the year when I've been able to attain over 30% backtesting the ebb tracker for last year. Using the ebb tracker, I'm closing in on that goal with a +24.30% return YTD. Still got four more months to go and feeling very bullish every step of the way. :D

[Wheels]

How ya doing, Wheels! I have been shooting for a goal of +30% since the start of the year when I've been able to attain over 30% backtesting the ebb tracker for last year. Using the ebb tracker, I'm closing in on that goal with a +24.30% return YTD. Still got four more months to go and feeling very bullish every step of the way. :D

So the short answer is never, although you appear to be well on your way for this year. Even your confirmed results of nearly 8% since June are impressive.

I recall someone on this board, I honestly don't remember who (it may have been Rolo who is no longer with us), claiming that they were shooting for 20% each year and they were very confident that it wasn't going to be difficult at all. I think they probably found out that it is quite difficult afterall.

I'm with Griffin that a goal of 30% every year seems a little lofty. In fact my stated goal of beating all the stock funds is pretty lofty as well, but I figure shoot for the moon and hopefully land among the stars. I hope you will be with us long term. I'd love to see if you can continue having such high confirmed returns. You'll have a lot of followers.....in line right behind me.

[ocean]

Amazing EBB,

Achieving 30% last year and 24% YTD so far is incredible. Can I ask how long you have been using your ebb tracker and how long you have been with TSP so I may have a rough idea of the size of your portfolio (just kidding). Congrats. From now on, EBB will be in my priority watch list.

Ocean

[sugarandspice]

......You'll have a lot of followers.....in line right behind me.

I been in that list for awhile now as well.

It's one thing to come here and shoot your mouth off ( like some have done with their "systems"). but if you have a track record, the credibilty factor can't be argued. And to get that kind of return is something I and many others would gladly pay for.

[Show-me]

I been in that list for awhile now as well.

It's one thing to come here and shoot your mouth off ( like some have done with their "systems"). but if you have a track record, the credibilty factor can't be argued. And to get that kind of return is something I and many others would gladly pay for.


Ditto!!!:D

[ebbnflow]

So the short answer is never, although you appear to be well on your way for this year. Even your confirmed results of nearly 8% since June are impressive.

I recall someone on this board, I honestly don't remember who (it may have been Rolo who is no longer with us), claiming that they were shooting for 20% each year and they were very confident that it wasn't going to be difficult at all. I think they probably found out that it is quite difficult afterall.

I'm with Griffin that a goal of 30% every year seems a little lofty. In fact my stated goal of beating all the stock funds is pretty lofty as well, but I figure shoot for the moon and hopefully land among the stars. I hope you will be with us long term. I'd love to see if you can continue having such high confirmed returns. You'll have a lot of followers.....in line right behind me.

Thanks a heap, Wheels! I never did manage to get +30%, but I did come close. By the way, I'm already up +9.5% on EWGuy's Weekly Tracker (started in June). Anyways, I got swept during the dot.com era when the bubble burst. Recovered nicely on the C-fund (+28%) in 2003. From all the data I started to accumulate, I started switching funds, and got a return of 25% in 2004 and 15% in 2005. I got dissatisfied with the way I was doing things, like waiting for a fund to drop down in price so I can jump back in, only to see the fund takeoff.

Discovered a way to store my collected data using arrays (never thought Algebra would come in handy in real life) into a database. That's when I was able to manipulate the ebb tracker's database for backtesting 2005 (+30%). Obtaining practically the same results this year is an eye opener. However, a couple of years does not a system make (reality check). I think it should take at least five years of consistent returns.


Amazing EBB,

Achieving 30% last year and 24% YTD so far is incredible. Can I ask how long you have been using your ebb tracker and how long you have been with TSP so I may have a rough idea of the size of your portfolio (just kidding). Congrats. From now on, EBB will be in my priority watch list.

Hi ya, Ocean! Glad to see myself on the Ocean's list. I'll try my best not to fall off the list. In regards to my portfolio, I can safely say that I don't have half the Power Account you and Wheels possess. For your question of when I started the ebb tracker, please refer to my reply to Wheels above.


I been in that list for awhile now as well.

It's one thing to come here and shoot your mouth off ( like some have done with their "systems"). but if you have a track record, the credibilty factor can't be argued. And to get that kind of return is something I and many others would gladly pay for.

Thanks for the kind words of encouragement, S&S. Now the pressure is really on! Wish me luck. By the way, can you tell me what Sugar (or is that Spice) doing on top of the roof in the middle of the night? :cheesy:

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/roof.walking.gif Sugar or Spice!


Ditto!!!

Thanks, Show-me, got your message! There's something about the moonlight and people getting good returns for August that make me wanna...:nuts:

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/moonlight.dancing.gif I hope for a good September.

[ocean]

EBB,

Thanks for the reply. I would say that you turned yourself into the TSPtalk site celebrity in a matter of just a few hours. Because your discussion with Wheels in one of the thread regarding your tracking system and how you apply it to IFT and along with your record.

What amazed me is that the explosive returns record showed on your June, July and August tracker proved that it is real. It seems that you only allocate your asset in either 100% F or 100% I. It takes a lot of confident to do that. There are few members here would do 100% in one of the G, F, C, S and I fund. It already indicated that they are confident enough about their allocations. Namor, SS, and Birch (we all know Birch won’t move until C hits $17 anyway.) are in this group.

On the other hand, for the rest of the members, I did not mean the mix funds would indicate the lack of confident. It just simply means “diversify”.

Keep up with the good work and sure we are all watching you (please no pressure) . Thanks again.

[nnuut]

Right On! You go EBB, good job were all watchin'!:D
Norman

[ebbnflow]

EBB,

Thanks for the reply. I would say that you turned yourself into the TSPtalk site celebrity in a matter of just a few hours. Because your discussion with Wheels in one of the thread regarding your tracking system and how you apply it to IFT and along with your record.

What amazed me is that the explosive returns record showed on your June, July and August tracker proved that it is real. It seems that you only allocate your asset in either 100% F or 100% I. It takes a lot of confident to do that. There are few members here would do 100% in one of the G, F, C, S and I fund. It already indicated that they are confident enough about their allocations. Namor, SS, and Birch (we all know Birch won’t move until C hits $17 anyway.) are in this group.

On the other hand, for the rest of the members, I did not mean the mix funds would indicate the lack of confident. It just simply means “diversify”.

Keep up with the good work and sure we are all watching you (please no pressure) . Thanks again.

Thanks, Ocean! I was reading an article from a link sent in by Robo (thanks Robo!). Here are some excerpts from the article (in quotes):


It takes a 100% gain to make up the losses for those invested in in the S&P. It takes a 250% gain to make up the losses in Nasdaq investments. When a powerful advance is measured in 20% to 30% moves, you can easily see how long it will take to regain those huge losses.

I was just talking about my goal of +30% gains with Wheels!


Every Trader Needs A Trend

If you think about it, you will quickly realize every trader needs a trend to be successful.

No matter what trading method is used, whether it is pattern trading, swing trading, long term buy-and-hold investing, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, buying or selling on news events, IPOs, splits, you name it. If the stock or mutual fund does not trend in the required direction after the trade is made, you cannot be profitable.

That explains a whole lot of what I've been doing: pattern trading with a little bit of fundamental and technical analysis, when patterns are not enough to see trends, to use as tie-breakers. :D


Some very astute market players have said that both fundamental and technical analysis approaches, though they can be profitable, usually are "no more profitable than an index fund."

There is a scary thought. All that work when an index fund could do as well?

But there is another approach that is almost never discussed. It is used by many hugely successful traders though the financial press seldom mentions it. In fact, many who use it are very quiet about their successes. They do not try to publicly prove themselves right, they just trade and make money.

This approach is the use of price to determine trends. Price does not forecast and it does not predict. Price is always right. If prices are moving up, the markets are advancing. Down and the markets are declining.

Hey Griffin, looks like we're on to something. Patterns and trends coming from the dollar and I-fund's prices combine to form a very robust multidimensional model. Ssshhh! Let's keep it quiet. :D My take on using price as a trend:


I base my decisions on the premise that everything has a cycle. To wit: the dollar like the market has its ebbs and flows. I study the output I get from the ebb tracker after tracking the dollar in relation to the major foreign currencies (euro, yen and pound). I have tons of patterns stored by the ebb tracker and by comparing the present pattern from the closest match I get from the stored data, I get to see a trend form. This trend tells me if it's either going downward or upward. The more the pattern shows up, the stronger the trend and the more likely I'm going to guess it right. :D It's getting less and less frequent that the ebb tracker comes across a pattern it hasn't seen yet. I also check for the I-fund's price and its fluctuations for patterns and trends. :D

Catch you later, Ocean. Below is Robo's original link.


Investor or Trader... Which Are You?

Most market participants consider themselves to be "investors." But if you look at a list of the really big winners on Wall Street, you will see that most of those who make big profits, list themselves as "traders."

http://timing.typepad.com/timer/

[ebbnflow]

Right On! You go EBB, good job were all watchin'!:D
Norman

et tu, nnutte? Thanks. :D

[ebbnflow]

I may not be around for Tuesday, so I'm putting an IFT now to move to F-fund for Wednesday. Good luck all! :D

[ebbnflow]

Since acquiring my new avatar, The Golden Bull (Wall Street's market icon), the ebb tracker has been perfect (six out of six) in correctly switching between the I-fund (+.49 cents gain) and F-fund (+.03 cents gain). I may have to give my old avatar (Nostranumbus) a longer vacation. I also noticed the S-fund on a tear with the same record in six days. :D

[ebbnflow]

The ebb tracker's lucky streak stands at seven correct picks between the I-fund and the F-fund. Even the S-fund had its streak stopped at six. I am still on the F-fund for Thursday, but will be testing the choppy waters of the I-fund on Friday. :blink: It's going to be a one day move. :D

[ocean]

EBB,

I have to say that your ebb tracker was spot on for the last 7 days. Man, whatever your tracker is, it is just amazing. Yes, I am watching your moves and I am speechless to see you move in and out of I and F and hit it perfectly with the market conditions like this. OK, let's see what will happen on Friday. Happy hoping.

Ocean

[ebbnflow]

EBB,

I have to say that your ebb tracker was spot on for the last 7 days. Man, whatever your tracker is, it is just amazing. Yes, I am watching your moves and I am speechless to see you move in and out of I and F and hit it perfectly with the market conditions like this. OK, let's see what will happen on Friday. Happy hoping.

Ocean

Thanks, Ocean. As long as it works, I'm good to go. :D

[ebbnflow]

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/jack.of.spades.gif The ebb tracker is up against the Jack of Spades (I don't exactly know what that means) :blink:, so getting the streak to nine would be a tall order, indeed. Anyways, we picked up a cent from the F-fund today and at the same time sidestepped another big loss for the I-fund (-.28 cents). Tomorrow (Friday), I will be on the I-fund, then back on the F-fund for Monday. Don't look back now, but I think I just heard a house of cards crUMBle. :nuts: Good luck all! :D

[ebbnflow]

The ebb tracker was right in guessing the market to be on the up trend, but unfortunately we're on the I-fund (-.01 cent) :notrust:, and the streak ends at eight. With all the markets up for today, the only thing that kept the I-fund from partaking in the spoils was the strong showing of the dollar against the foreign currencies. We end the 1st week of September (Sept. 01 included) with a healthy gain of +1.29%. I will be back on the F-fund on Monday. The ebb tracker sees a lot of turbulence for next week. Good luck all! :D

[ebbnflow]

...We end the 1st week of September (Sept. 01 included) with a healthy gain of +1.29%...
http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/waterfall.gif Sorry, my mind must have been somewhere else. The actual gain for the week is +.99%. I did count Sept. 01 already. :embarrest:

[ebbnflow]

I will be back on the F-fund on Monday. The ebb tracker sees a lot of turbulence for next week. Good luck all! :D
http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/castle.lightning.gif Yep, the ebb tracker sidestepped another big loss for the I-fund (-.19 cents), and it doesn't think the doom and gloom is about to end soon. For the first time in a long while, it doesn't see any good entry point for the week. I hate to be on the sidelines, but I will be remaining on the F-fund till Thursday. :D

[ebbnflow]

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/cat.going.postal.gif I am ticked off, but my cat's even more ticked off. :D The ebb tracker, while sitting on the F-fund (+.02 cents) :rolleyes:, finally missed a big gain of +.24 cents by the I-fund. Since I got on board (June), the ebb tracker has been right about 62% of the time (day-to-day), so I do expect on missing out on some days. Still hate them days, though. Having that lucky streak sure has the odds catching up with me today and maybe tomorrow too. :D

[The_Technician]

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/cat.going.postal.gif I am ticked off, but my cat's even more ticked off. :D The ebb tracker, while sitting on the F-fund (+.02 cents) :rolleyes:, finally missed a big gain of +.24 cents by the I-fund. Since I got on board (June), the ebb tracker has been right about 62% of the time (day-to-day), so I do expect on missing out on some days. Still hate them days, though. Having that lucky streak sure has the odds catching up with me today and maybe tomorrow too. :D

You can join me.....the hard increase sure came out of right field yesterday.....

[ebbnflow]

You can join me.....the hard increase sure came out of right field yesterday.....
http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/skull.candle.gif Hi ya Techie! Yep, we dropped the ball (crystal ball?) on that one. Maybe it's time to use some of that black magic of yours on the market! Dang, seeing people jumping in on stocks is killing me. I'm not used to sitting on the sidelines the whole week and it's really testing my trigger finger. Don't get me wrong though, dodging the negative FV from the I-fund (-.06) is fine with me. Good luck all! :D

[The_Technician]

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/skull.candle.gif Hi ya Techie! Yep, we dropped the ball (crystal ball?) on that one. Maybe it's time to use some of that black magic of yours on the market! Dang, seeing people jumping in on stocks is killing me. I'm not used to sitting on the sidelines the whole week and it's really testing my trigger finger. Don't get me wrong though, dodging the negative FV from the I-fund (-.06) is fine with me. Good luck all! :D

Where do you guys get those neat avatars???

[Gilligan]

I'm back on the F fund today (Friday), and for the third time in a row, I'm going to end up with a negative return coming on the 2nd week of each month (June, July and August). :mad: I won't be chasing a win for the week by going with the I fund, though, the ebb tracker is seeing red for today and Monday of next week. :D Staying away from the I fund for a couple of days. :)

Ebb,
looks like your tracker has a bug in it that effects the second week of the month.

[ebbnflow]

Where do you guys get those neat avatars???

You can usually find these avatars from sites like TSPTalk, but seriously, I usually make them from pop-up/advertising banners (hey, if you can't beat 'em, use 'em) and from websites with animations/screensavers like these:

http://www.screensavers.com/landing/3d_pg2.html or you can try ready-made gifs from http://www.gifworks.com

There must be a better way of doing this (done no research on this), but I'm just telling it like how I'm doing it. :rolleyes: I use a capture program (SnagIt from TechSmith) that I set to 'Record a video of the screen' using the fixed region option (set to 120 x 120) and save it as an avi movie. By the way, SnagIt is also nifty for capturing any window or picture on screen that's not savable using right-clicks.

I know I used to download lots of applications and came upon these gif programs through a search of my computer. One such program (Video Cleaner Pro with Animated Gif Booster Pack from River Past) is used to convert and edit the captured avi movie into animated gif. I then use a gif optimizer or the one online (gifworks.com (http://www.gifworks.com)) that's free to add borders/resize and keep the gif under 20 kilobytes in size. You can also make one from scratch if you wish, and after all is said and done, you're good to go. Feel free to use any of the gifs in here (just right-click and save). :D

[ebbnflow]

Ebb,
looks like your tracker has a bug in it that effects the second week of the month.
http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/sailing.gif Welcome aboard, Gilligan! Dang, I almost fell off my chair laughing. I totally forgot about the 2nd week of the month down cycle (bug?) for the ebb tracker. That explains why for this day (Thursday), with no trend showing up on the ebb tracker, I chose not to even check with other indicators available. Maybe my subconscious knew and decided to just lay low for the week. Anyways, good sailing, Gilligan. :D

[The_Technician]

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/jack.of.spades.gif The ebb tracker is up against the Jack of Spades (I don't exactly know what that means) , so getting the streak to nine would be a tall order, indeed. Anyways, we picked up a cent from the F-fund today and at the same time sidestepped another big loss for the I-fund (-.28 cents). Tomorrow (Friday), I will be on the I-fund, then back on the F-fund for Monday. Don't look back now, but I think I just heard a house of cards crUMBle. Good luck all!

Hey EBB....I got my streak up to my last 13 trades to the positive of late....now it had to be 13 while I'm in the I fund....but "no worries mate", it won't bother me....hop to blow the top off on this one....nice not to lose any.....:D

[ebbnflow]

Hey EBB....I got my streak up to my last 13 trades to the positive of late....now it had to be 13 while I'm in the I fund....but "no worries mate", it won't bother me....hop to blow the top off on this one....nice not to lose any.....:D
http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/flying.toaster.gifGreat streak and a good move to the I-fund (+.14 cents), Techie! But wait, are you trying to stretch a single into a double? Watch your step now or it's toaster heaven for your hard earned gains, it's September you know. Anyways...you're good to go...I'm good to go, so...there you go. :blink:

[Gilligan]

Ebb,
If the F gains a penny today, you'll be green for the week, Breaking the second week curse on the tracker.

[ebbnflow]

Ebb,
If the F gains a penny today, you'll be green for the week, Breaking the second week curse on the tracker.
http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/greenie.gif Gilligan, I really thought this was the week to break the 2nd week curse. For crying out loud, I wasn't suppose to lose any money sitting on the freaking F-fund (-.01 cent for the day and the week). :mad: I pulled for the F-fund all week long and it's been really fun...not! Today, while expecting a penny from heaven, I even got to singing -- I feel greeny, oh so greeny, I feel greeny...oh never mind. :rolleyes:

The curse continues...and to anybody using the ebb tracker as a guide, please go against it every 2nd week of the month. We'll call it the ebb tracker's down cycle seasonality. Anyways, the ebb tracker tracks cycles, so come to think of it, it makes a whole lot of sense for the ebb tracker to have a cycle of its own. :D

[ebbnflow]

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/Halloween.gif Hi ya, Griffin! Thanks for the good info. The endless cyclic movement of the Earth's waters (ebb and flow) is caused mainly by the Moon's gravitational pull. It sure is spooky the way a Full Moon affects the ebb tracker, and it's not even Halloween yet! :blink: I think you got a chuckle out of the ebb tracker with your comment about women's...I see you just got edited, so I wouldn't even mention it. :cheesy:

Strange as it may seem, the ebb tracker seems to be seeing a lot of patterns with down trends these days. For next week, the only day showing with an up trend is Wednesday (FOMC meeting). That's a one day move to the I-fund and then back again to the F-fund for Thursday. We just might see some fireworks on Wednesday, so be prepared! :D

[ebbnflow]

Tip of the day: Why not use avatars/animated gifs (copy and paste to e-mails) along with smileys to personalize e-mails!

[Spaf]

ebb,
Some folks like the avatars you've made! Cool!....:) You could make an avatar thread on the bulletin board! Just an idea!
I'd check with Tom first, get his ok!
Spaf

PS: Ebbatars......:D

[ebbnflow]

ebb,
Some folks like the avatars you've made! Cool!....:) You could make an avatar thread on the bulletin board! Just an idea!
I'd check with Tom first, get his ok!
Spaf

PS: Ebbatars......:D
http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/gazebo.gif Thanks, Spaf. It's just a way to relax and pass the time, especially on days when I'm on the F-fund. :(

[Spaf]

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/gazebo.gif Thanks, Spaf. It's just a way to relax and pass the time, especially on days when I'm on the F-fund. :(

The F-fund!..........Now that explains everything....;) :D

[Griffin]

...It sure is spooky the way a Full Moon affects the ebb tracker, and it's not even Halloween yet! :blink: I think you got a chuckle out of the ebb tracker with your comment about.... :D

I'm glad you got to read the comment before it got wiped out....beware the full moon :D

[ebbnflow]

I just did a quick check on the full moon's (using universal time) (http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/MoonPhase.html) effect on the I-fund:

Jun to Dec 2003 +.21 cents or +2.06% gain
Jan to Dec 2004 +.58 cents or +4.50% gain
Jan to Dec 2005 -.28 cents or -1.81% loss
Jan to Sep 2006 -1.06 cents or -6.03% loss

Since the market volume has increased the last couple of years, it looks like we could have saved a lot by totally avoiding the I-fund during a full moon. That's another seasonality to consider. :D

*Note: The dollar and cents are correct, but the percentage might be off (good approximation though). :D

[Pilgrim]

It's difficult to judge based only on the cumulative effect over a year. Would it be too much trouble to make bar graphs for each year with each month a data point? Sorta like the seasonality charts that Tom puts up?

[ebbnflow]

Pilgrim, I had the figures on wordpad, maybe this would put some light on it better:


2003.............................................. ...................................Jun 16 (+.13)...Jul 14 (+.13)...Aug 12 (+.04)...Sep 10 (+.09)...Oct 10 (+.07)...Nov 10 (-.04)...Dec 08 (-.03)
2004 Jan 07 (-.10)...Feb 06 (+.16)...Mar 08 (-.05)...Apr 05 (+.05)...May 04 (+.16)...Jun 03 (-.08)...Jul 02 (+.01)...Aug 30 (-.02)...Sep 28 (+.04)...Oct 28 (+.10)...Nov 26 (+.15)...Dec 27 (+.15)
2005 Jan 25 (-.05)...Feb 24 (even)...Mar 28 (-.04)...Apr 25 (-.02)...May 23 (+.14)...Jun 22 (+.01)...Jul 21 (+.03)...Aug 19 (+.07)...Sep 19 (-.03)...Oct 17 (-.18)...Nov 16 (-.05)...Dec 15 (-.16)
2006 Jan 17 (-.28)...Feb 13 (-.06)...Mar 14 (+.15)...Apr 13 (+.03)...May 15 (-.29)...Jun 12 (-.31)...Jul 11 (-.02)...Aug 09 (even)...Sep 07 (-.28)...

Note: When the full moon falls on a weekend, then the following market day is the affected day. :D

[ebbnflow]

Sorry, I knew I should have checked it first! Please disregard the numbers on the other posts. :(


2003.............................................. ...................................Jun 16 (+.13)...Jul 14 (+.13)...Aug 12 (+.04)...Sep 10 (-.09)...Oct 10 (+.07)...Nov 10 (-.04)...Dec 08 (-.03)
2004 Jan 07 (-.10)...Feb 06 (+.16)...Mar 08 (-.05)...Apr 05 (+.05)...May 04 (+.16)...Jun 03 (-.08)...Jul 02 (+.01)...Aug 30 (-.02)...Sep 28 (+.04)...Oct 28 (+.10)...Nov 26 (+.15)...Dec 27 (+.15)
2005 Jan 25 (-.05)...Feb 24 (even)...Mar 28 (-.04)...Apr 25 (-.02)...May 23 (+.14)...Jun 22 (+.01)...Jul 21 (+.03)...Aug 19 (+.07)...Sep 19 (-.03)...Oct 17 (-.18)...Nov 16 (-.05)...Dec 15 (-.16)
2006 Jan 17 (-.28)...Feb 13 (-.06)...Mar 14 (+.15)...Apr 13 (+.03)...May 15 (-.29)...Jun 12 (-.31)...Jul 11 (-.02)...Aug 09 (even)...Sep 07 (-.28)...

2003 +.21 cents
2004 +.57 cents
2005 -.28 cents
2006 -1.06 (that's a dollar plus!)

[ebbnflow]

Good luck to all for today! :D

[ebbnflow]

...Strange as it may seem, the ebb tracker seems to be seeing a lot of patterns with down trends these days. For next week, the only day showing with an up trend is Wednesday (FOMC meeting). That's a one day move to the I-fund and then back again to the F-fund for Thursday. We just might see some fireworks on Wednesday, so be prepared! :D

After reviewing the ebb tracker one more time, I am making a revision for Thursday. I will be staying with the I-fund for Thursday and then transfer to the F-fund for Friday. Sorry for the confusion (I think I need to get glasses). Good luck to all! :D

[fabijo]

Are you counting on the dollar dropping for the I fund?
If so, how would going to F help? Doesn't that do bad during a weak dollar?

[FUTURESTRADER]

Are you counting on the dollar dropping for the I fund?
If so, how would going to F help? Doesn't that do bad during a weak dollar?

that's what I still can't get about the 'ebbtracker'..Limiting himself to F and I.
the dollar is somewhat tied to the ten yr yield ($TNX), so If the Dollar is down, the ten yr yield tends to be down, F fund tends to be up, and the I fund tends to be up. Ergo...I and F tend to trend in the same direction???
But you can't argue with his performance....so farrrrrrrr :)

[ebbnflow]

Are you counting on the dollar dropping for the I fund?
If so, how would going to F help? Doesn't that do bad during a weak dollar?


that's what I still can't get about the 'ebbtracker'..Limiting himself to F and I.
the dollar is somewhat tied to the ten yr yield ($TNX), so If the Dollar is down, the ten yr yield tends to be down, F fund tends to be up, and the I fund tends to be up. Ergo...I and F tend to trend in the same direction???
But you can't argue with his performance....so farrrrrrrr :)
http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/cat.dj.gif Thanks fabijo and FUTURESTRADER for the much appreciated input. I've been doing some head scratching myself, but for some reason I never did anything about it (you know what they say, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it"). However, after some soul searching, I checked my ITFs to the F-fund from June to September, and finally decided to at least go to the G-fund for the G-penny whenever possible. :)

Jul 17 F (even)
Jul 24 F (+.01)
Jul 31 F (even)
Aug 17 F (even)
Aug 23 F (even)
Sep 11 F (-.01)
Sep 18 F (even)

The above dates were my ITFs to the F-fund when a move to the G-fund would have been wiser to pick up the penny. It looks like I missed out on +.07 cents worth. But I will be sticking to the F-fund for safe haven when the G-penny does not present itself because I have picked up +.08 cents from the F-fund in the same time period (above dates excluded). I may have to check Carnac's Corner more often to find out when the G-penny is due. :D

[ebbnflow]

...and finally decided to at least go to the G-fund for the G-penny whenever possible. :)

Dang, almost forgot about the G-penny. Thanks to the mlk_man with his talk about the G-penny on his thread. :D

[fedgolfer]

penny won't post till Monday though... at least that's my hunch? We got .01 this past Monday, rarely do we get a g-fund penny on a Monday and Friday of the same week... don't feel like lookin' up the stats, but I doubt its ever happend. Regardless, G looks safe with all the f/c/s/~i charts looking overbought. Just rambling.

[ebbnflow]

penny won't post till Monday though... at least that's my hunch? We got .01 this past Monday, rarely do we get a g-fund penny on a Monday and Friday of the same week... don't feel like lookin' up the stats, but I doubt its ever happend. Regardless, G looks safe with all the f/c/s/~i charts looking overbought. Just rambling.

Thanks for the heads-up, fedgolfer!

[vectorman]

penny won't post till Monday though... at least that's my hunch? We got .01 this past Monday, rarely do we get a g-fund penny on a Monday and Friday of the same week... don't feel like lookin' up the stats, but I doubt its ever happend. Regardless, G looks safe with all the f/c/s/~i charts looking overbought. Just rambling.

" but I doubt its ever happened " :confused:

July 31 ( Mon) G fund 11.47 to 11.48
Aug 04 ( Fri ) G fund 11.48 to 11.49

[ebbnflow]

" but I doubt its ever happened " :confused:

July 31 ( Mon) G fund 11.47 to 11.48
Aug 04 ( Fri ) G fund 11.48 to 11.49

Be that as it may, Carnac has spoken, and he says it's on the 25th! It's official. :D

[fedgolfer]

" but I doubt its ever happened " :confused:

July 31 ( Mon) G fund 11.47 to 11.48
Aug 04 ( Fri ) G fund 11.48 to 11.49

Thanks for pickin' up the slack on my laziness... more proof this site is helpful to us all

[mailmanusa]

Just yesterday I was thinking about when the g penny hits and trying to learn about timing a change to take advantage of it. So who is Carnac? How do we figure when the penny is comming? if the penny is comming Monday, does that mean a change to the G fund would need to be made before noon on Fri-or Mon?

[nnuut]

CARNAC is the Technician, contact him he can answer all of your questions:D !
Norman

[tsptalk]

if the penny is comming Monday, does that mean a change to the G fund would need to be made before noon on Fri-or Mon?
Friday

[ebbnflow]

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/porsche.gif Thanks for filling in for me guys! We're running on cruise control and it's safe to say we'd end up with a solid gain for the week. I've already mapped out some plays for next week. Moving to the I-fund for Monday and Tuesday, then back on the F-fund for Wednesday. Drive safely and good luck to all! :D

[FundSurfer]

You missed the penny. (Never listen to a guy who plays with crystal balls! ;)

G-fund Thread (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=56790&postcount=336)

[EW_ret]

Ebb is in G fund 100% today until the COB. So if G fund pays $0.01 tonight, like FundSufer predicts, Ebb will get the penny. He will be transfering tonight to the I fund for Monday.

[The_Technician]

You missed the penny. (Never listen to a guy who plays with crystal balls! ;)

G-fund Thread (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=56790&postcount=336)

This message is harassment and full of just pure rudeness on your part FS.......you are trying to cause problems for other board members....

I believe if I was one to see some "new" methods and developments after a self proclaimation like yours, I think I would give it a few cycles to see if it holds true......your first test is tonight.....I have already went into the history and found your method failed multiple times...

I know mine method is right the majority of the time.....by the Crystal Ball...

The Crystal Ball rules....

Carnac

[FundSurfer]

Sorry Techy, it was a joke. Tell you what. If the penny doesn't pay tonight, I'll buy you lunch (OK, I'll mail you a gift certificate from Wendy's) and I'll promise to leave the penny prediction to the crystal ball. :D In addition I'll publicly post you were right and I was wrong.

[ebbnflow]

From my Account Thread:


09/22/06 - 100% F - IFT before noon Thursday

This was my original IFT to the F-fund.


Never mind. Going with Carnac's call for the G-penny being on the 25th. :D

I then decided to go to the G-fund instead for the 22nd, but changed my mind to wait on the 25th instead. I deleted the IFT to the G-fund and replaced it with "Never mind" and I think this is where the confusion came from. I wasn't referring to my original IFT move to the F-fund, it was for the just deleted IFT to the G-fund. My plan was to stick to the F-fund for Friday and switch to the G-fund for the 25th to get the G-penny. :blink:


09/25/06 Monday - 100% I - IFT before noon Friday
http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/rolling.eyes.gif Sorry for the confusion EWGuy, but the planned move to the G-fund on Monday became moot when I found out the ebb tracker is moving to the I-fund for Monday. :D

[Birchtree]

I was watching Wendys about 10 years ago when it was trading at $4.00 - it's now at $64.00 and getting ready to do a 2/1 split. That is how you make money - DCA it all the way up.

[ebbnflow]

You missed the penny. (Never listen to a guy who plays with crystal balls! ;)

G-fund Thread (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=56790&postcount=336)

FundSurfer, I might just pick up a penny or two with the F-fund today. Could be a blessing I missed your post about solving the G-penny mystery. :cheesy:

[ebbnflow]

I was watching Wendys about 10 years ago when it was trading at $4.00 - it's now at $64.00 and getting ready to do a 2/1 split. That is how you make money - DCA it all the way up.

I love Wendy's food, just wish I'd have bought some of their shares way back then, too! :D

[ebbnflow]

I then decided to go to the G-fund instead for the 22nd, but changed my mind to wait on the 25th instead. I deleted the IFT to the G-fund and replaced it with "Never mind" and I think this is where the confusion came from. I wasn't referring to my original IFT move to the F-fund, it was for the just deleted IFT to the G-fund. My plan was to stick to the F-fund for Friday and switch to the G-fund for the 25th to get the G-penny. :blink:

I hope EWGuy would be able to sort through the confusion I caused before handing the Weekly Tracker to Tom. EWGuy, I shouldn't have left that "Never mind" comment, but FundSurfer and the others can vouch that I was in the F-fund for today. But if it's too late to do anything about it, that's fine too. :)

[nnuut]

Well, when does the competition start? Chcken?:confused:

WHAT IS THIS A FULL MOON OR SOMETHING? MAN!

[ebbnflow]

Be that as it may, Carnac has spoken, and he says it's on the 25th! It's official. :D

Techie, I hope you weren't referring to me, I remained on the F-fund.


You missed the penny. (Never listen to a guy who plays with crystal balls! ;)

G-fund Thread (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=56790&postcount=336)

Even FundSurfer thinks I missed an opportunity to get the G-penny for today because I stayed with the F-fund. But as it turned out, I gained +.02 cents from the F-fund. :)

[ebbnflow]

Well, when does the competition start? Chcken?:confused:

WHAT IS THIS A FULL MOON OR SOMETHING? MAN!

Nnuut, we already had the full moon early September 7th. Two full moons in a month only happens every two-and-a-half to three years. That's where the saying, "once in a blue moon" came from. :D

[ebbnflow]

I just checked the Weekly Tracker and it looks like I wasn't credited with the +.02 cents gain for the F-fund on Friday. As I've explained on my Account Thread, myself, Fedgolfer and Vectorman were discussing about when the G-penny would pay. I went with Carnac's prediction of a Monday (25th) payout for the G-fund. That's why I stuck with my original move to the F-fund for Friday and planned to take the penny on the G-fund later on the 25th. But as it turned out, the ebb tracker is moving to the I-fund for Monday and would have to pass up on the G-penny. I guess EWGuy interpreted it another way on my Account Thread with me moving to the G-fund on the 22nd (Friday). :o

Just for the record, I won't be trying to pick up the G-penny if I would be on the I-fund. On days when I'm going for safe haven and there's no G-penny to pick up (like last Friday), I'd be on the F-fund. I hope this explains my strategy better. :D


Sep. 20...But I will be sticking to the F-fund for safe haven when the G-penny does not present itself because I have picked up +.08 cents from the F-fund in the same time period (above dates excluded). I may have to check Carnac's Corner more often to find out when the G-penny is due. :D

[EW_ret]

09/21/06, 9:13 am - 100% F - IFT before noon Thursday


09/21/06, 10:50 am. Never mind. Going with Carnac's call for the G-penny being on the 25th. :D

Both above quotes were in your account thread on Sep 21st. I interpreted the second entry at 10:50 am of "Never Mind" as canceling the IFT to 100% F. The second sentence of this entry was interpreted as going to G fund, "Going with Carnac's call for the G-penny being on 25th".

The Weekly Tracker has you in G Fund 100% at COB on September 21st. Since you were in G fund you did not get the 0.02 gain of F fund on September 22nd. You should not make comments in your account thread that can be read different than your intentions. These comments should be in your account talk thread.

Your second entry is somewhat vague. But can you see how your second entry can be interpreted as going to G Fund? Also, you made recent comments in other threads that you might go to G fund rather than F fund if it were going to pay the penny.

I am willing to change your IFT move for Sep 21st to F fund, rather than G Fund. In the future only make entries for IFT moves in your account thread. If more than one IFT is posted in a day, clearly state the date for each IFT, the funds and percentage.


I just checked the Weekly Tracker and it looks like I wasn't credited with the +.02 cents gain for the F-fund on Friday. As I've explained on my Account Thread, myself, Fedgolfer and Vectorman were discussing about when the G-penny would pay. I went with Carnac's prediction of a Monday (25th) payout for the G-fund. That's why I stuck with my original move to the F-fund for Friday and planned to take the penny on the G-fund later on the 25th. But as it turned out, the ebb tracker is moving to the I-fund for Monday and would have to pass up on the G-penny. I guess EWGuy interpreted it another way on my Account Thread with me moving to the G-fund on the 22nd (Friday). :o

Just for the record, I won't be trying to pick up the G-penny if I would be on the I-fund. On days when I'm going for safe haven and there's no G-penny to pick up (like last Friday), I'd be on the F-fund. I hope this explains my strategy better. :D

[vectorman]

After reading the different post for Sep 21, I can see where there is some confusion. I too at first thought ebbnflow was going to try the G fund. But after reading the post about Carnac's call for Sep 25th, I figured his play was to stay with F for friday, then to G for monday. Ebbnflow does not have a track record of being misleading; his timely allocations, transactions and returns are proof that he has been and continues to be very helpful. He also doesn't might sharing his ebb tracker and even info on making cool avatars. Thanks Ebbnflow, it's much appreciated.:D

[ebbnflow]

...I am willing to change your IFT move for Sep 21st to F fund, rather than G Fund. In the future only make entries for IFT moves in your account thread. If more than one IFT is posted in a day, clearly state the date for each IFT, the funds and percentage.

Thanks EWGuy, that's very decent of you to be willing to change the tracker. In all honesty, the ones I was in discussion with on my Account Talk Thread, knew of my intention of staying with the F-fund on Friday. You are right on the confusion I've caused by posting on my Account Thread, specially when I edited my move to the G-fund and replaced it with "Never mind."

It all started after I already made an IFT to the F-fund when Mlk_man mentioned in his thread that the G-penny would pay on Friday (that's when I made a second entry to move to the G-fund), but then I found out that Carnac was pegging the G-penny on Monday the 25th. I went back on my Account Thread and edited the the IFT to the G-fund with "Never mind. Going with Carnac's call for the G-penny being on 25th." Being a tracker sure ain't easy. My apologies and many thanks again, EWGuy! :)

[ebbnflow]

After reading the different post for Sep 21, I can see where there is some confusion. I too at first thought ebbnflow was going to try the G fund. But after reading the post about Carnac's call for Sep 25th, I figured his play was to stay with F for friday, then to G for monday. Ebbnflow does not have a track record of being misleading; his timely allocations, transactions and returns are proof that he has been and continues to be very helpful.

Thanks a heap, Vectorman! :)

[EW_ret]

Thanks EWGuy, that's very decent of you to be willing to change the tracker. In all honesty, the ones I was in discussion with on my Account Talk Thread, knew of my intention of staying with the F-fund on Friday. You are right on the confusion I've caused by posting on my Account Thread, specially when I edited my move to the G-fund and replaced it with "Never mind."

It all started after I already made an IFT to the F-fund when Mlk_man mentioned in his thread that the G-penny would pay on Friday (that's when I made a second entry to move to the G-fund), but then I found out that Carnac was pegging the G-penny on Monday the 25th. I went back on my Account Thread and edited the the IFT to the G-fund with "Never mind. Going with Carnac's call for the G-penny being on 25th." Being a tracker sure ain't easy. My apologies and many thanks again, EWGuy! :)

Your welcomed! I do not always get a chance to read all account talk comments, especially when many entrys are made in a short period of time. Its good that I get the feedback from all members when I make an error in entering IFT moves. It makes the job easier when the account thread clearly shows the IFT move. You have always done that and this was the first time your entry was somewhat vague.

[TSP-roulette]

Hello Ebb, just passing through. No big deal about the confusion. I just appreciate your comments and account postings. You, Milk, Gilligan and a few others seem to have a better understading of "I" and "F" fund trends etc.
Your comments, as well as the other members are greatly appeciated. Thanks again for your posts, comments, and strategies.

TSP-roulette

[ebbnflow]

Hello Ebb, just passing through. No big deal about the confusion. I just appreciate your comments and account postings. You, Milk, Gilligan and a few others seem to have a better understading of "I" and "F" fund trends etc.
Your comments, as well as the other members are greatly appeciated. Thanks again for your posts, comments, and strategies.

TSP-roulette
http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/roulette.gif On behalf of all the contributing members of this board, we thank you for your support. Now let's make some more money! :nuts:

[ebbnflow]

Missed the +.15 cents gain on the I-fund for today. I didn't even realize the ebb tracker had a running six day streak (with a +1.95% gain) of picking it right between the I and the F-fund. Closing in on +3.00% for September which is par for the course and I guess the ebb tracker is calling it quits by parking on the F-fund for the rest of the week. Good luck to all! :)

[Birchtree]

ebbnflow,

Would it be appropriate to give your avatar a snot rag now that he's 100% G fund - there ain't no fire comin from those nostrils.

[ebbnflow]

ebbnflow,

Would it be appropriate to give your avatar a snot rag now that he's 100% G fund - there ain't no fire comin from those nostrils.
http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/chihuahua.gif Hi there, Birchy! Congrats on the C-fund's turnaround the past couple of months. My move to the G-fund for Monday is just a way to optimize the ebb tracker's profits. I do feel a little apprenhensive picking up the G-penny with the F-fund doing so well these days. :D

[FUTURESTRADER]

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/chihuahua.gif Hi there, Birchy! Congrats on the C-fund's turnaround the past couple of months. My move to the G-fund for Monday is just a way to optimize the ebb tracker's profits. I do feel a little apprenhensive picking up the G-penny with the F-fund doing so well these days. :D

I think you're on the right track, ebb...Can't pass up a one day move for gauranteed penny (choice between F and G). Not many, IF ANY, gaurantees in this biz! And F MAY get you .01 or .02 in th coming days but still good chance to lose .01., i.e yesterday :). Probably a little more Gold in those hills if you throw G and S into the mix, tho it does add a few more variables. The C fund is really the only fund that I see we could do with out...lol..sorry Birchy :)

[ebbnflow]

I think you're on the right track, ebb...Can't pass up a one day move for gauranteed penny (choice between F and G). Not many, IF ANY, gaurantees in this biz! And F MAY get you .01 or .02 in th coming days but still good chance to lose .01., i.e yesterday :). Probably a little more Gold in those hills if you throw G and S into the mix, tho it does add a few more variables. The C fund is really the only fund that I see we could do with out...lol..sorry Birchy :)
http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/dolphin.gif Thanks, FUTURESTRADER! That makes it -.02 cents on the F-fund in two days. And, I was only a couple of cents shy of +3.00% for the month of September, too (ouch!). Anyways, the ebb tracker has all of next week's moves planned already. The only day that's sticking out like a sore thumb is Tuesday. Being in safe haven from Monday thru Thursday made more sense to me, since a big flip-flop could be just around the corner. :D

MON - G-fund
TUE - I-fund
WED - F-fund
THU - F-fund
FRI - I-fund

[airlift]

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/dolphin.gif Thanks, FUTURESTRADER! That makes it -.02 cents on the F-fund in two days. And, I was only a couple of cents shy of +3.00% for the month of September, too (ouch!). Anyways, the ebb tracker has all of next week's moves planned already. The only day that's sticking out like a sore thumb is Tuesday. Being in safe haven from Monday thru Thursday made more sense to me, since a big flip-flop could be just around the corner. :D

MON - G-fund
TUE - I-fund
WED - F-fund
THU - F-fund
FRI - I-fund --

Ebbnflow,--

You are doing the right thing to preserve capital. IMO, the correction started in full yesterday, even if it lasts only for 2 or 3 days. Best to let it fall and let the markets become oversold.

[ebbnflow]

--

Ebbnflow,--

You are doing the right thing to preserve capital. IMO, the correction started in full yesterday, even if it lasts only for 2 or 3 days. Best to let it fall and let the markets become oversold.

Thanks for dropping by Sponsor! As for capital preservation, I'm just following the ebb tracker's pattern/trend/cycle output. But I did notice a lot of moves to the F-fund these past three weeks. Since we haven't had a one day drop of 50 cents or more for a long time, I'm going to be watching the market closely on Monday and Tuesday, and may even choose to override the ebb tracker's choice of I-fund for Tuesday. :D

[airlift]

Thanks for dropping by Sponsor! As for capital preservation, I'm just following the ebb tracker's pattern/trend/cycle output. But I did notice a lot of moves to the F-fund these past three weeks. Since we haven't had a one day drop of 50 cents or more for a long time, I'm going to be watching the market closely on Monday and Tuesday, and may even choose to override the ebb tracker's choice of I-fund for Tuesday. :D -

It's good to read you also. I believe that your system is giving you good signals and that either plus or minus a degree or so, it is giving you signs of an impending correction of sorts. (TA being a combination of art and sience -- maybe more art!). This is coincidental with other technical analysts who agree that a correction is due. Perhaps we will all be surprised with a "perverse" market that keeps rising on fumes, but the probabilities are siding with a correction (IMO). Unless this is privileged matter, is there a previous post where I can read in more detail and learn how your ebb tracker's pattern/trend/cycle output works? Thanks in advance!

[ebbnflow]

-

It's good to read you also. I believe that your system is giving you good signals and that either plus or minus a degree or so, it is giving you signs of an impending correction of sorts. (TA being a combination of art and sience -- maybe more art!). This is coincidental with other technical analysts who agree that a correction is due. Perhaps we will all be surprised with a "perverse" market that keeps rising on fumes, but the probabilities are siding with a correction (IMO). Unless this is privileged matter, is there a previous post where I can read in more detail and learn how your ebb tracker's pattern/trend/cycle output works? Thanks in advance!

That's right Sponsor, the ebb tracker has given me good signals (entry/exit points) throughout the year. I'd probably end up with less than half of what I've gotten on the Weekly Tracker (+12.66 since June, averaging over +3.00% gains/month YTD) without it. That's why it is so important to have patience and discipline when it comes to sticking with a system. Click here to read the article (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B0B7F9137%2D8531%2D4261%2DA89C%2 DA46F389A8506%7D&siteid=). :)

In streamlining the ebb tracker system, I have tried to make it as absolute as it can be by getting rid of extraneous inputs (emotion/gut feeling), and other sundry background noises. The output I get from the ebb tracker does not leave anything to interpretation, in other words, I too am "extolling the virtues of a mechanical approach." :D

You can get some idea of the ebb tracker in my talk with other board members:

Retire: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=6;post#62
FundSurfer: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=8;post#94
Griffin: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=9;post#99
Wheels: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=9;post#107

[airlift]

Ebbnflow --

I have to stress that this information is top of the line. Thank you very much. I still have not studied this in depth, and I admit this will take some time do digest. However, I will observe, study and ask questions as part of my learning process. In fact, this will be sort of a reference post to which I will return as need be, until I understand fully how this works. I understand the virtues of trading with a mechanical system; but I have some apprehension also, because I have seen systems working efficiently in the late 1990's most of the time, but when they failed they took down people with significant losses. My very best hope lies in the certainty that, as you posted yesterday, you seem to be aware of this also. As I recall, yesterday you said that you are ready to overide the system. To me this means that you know what you are doing, and this gives me peace of mind, knowing that a rational mind like yours is in control. Once again, I thank you for responding in such a detailed fashion to my request. No doubt, this will also be of benefit to other colleagues in the I fund! --



That's right Sponsor, the ebb tracker has given me good signals (entry/exit points) throughout the year. I'd probably end up with less than half of what I've gotten on the Weekly Tracker (+12.66 since June, averaging over +3.00% gains/month YTD) without it. That's why it is so important to have patience and discipline when it comes to sticking with a system. Click here to read the article (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B0B7F9137%2D8531%2D4261%2DA89C%2 DA46F389A8506%7D&siteid=). :)

In streamlining the ebb tracker system, I have tried to make it as absolute as it can be by getting rid of extraneous inputs (emotion/gut feeling), and other sundry background noises. The output I get from the ebb tracker does not leave anything to interpretation, in other words, I too am "extolling the virtues of a mechanical approach." :D

You can get some idea of the ebb tracker in my talk with other board members:

Retire: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=6;post#62
FundSurfer: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=8;post#94
Griffin: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=9;post#99
Wheels: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=9;post#107

[airlift]

Thanks for dropping by Sponsor! As for capital preservation, I'm just following the ebb tracker's pattern/trend/cycle output. But I did notice a lot of moves to the F-fund these past three weeks. Since we haven't had a one day drop of 50 cents or more for a long time, I'm going to be watching the market closely on Monday and Tuesday, and may even choose to override the ebb tracker's choice of I-fund for Tuesday. :D

--Ebbnflow --Have you decided whether you are going to override the ebb tracker's choice of I-fund for Tuesday? Thank you in advance for posting your decision.

[ebbnflow]

--Ebbnflow --Have you decided whether you are going to override the ebb tracker's choice of I-fund for Tuesday? Thank you in advance for posting your decision.

Yep, just did a one day move to the I-fund for Tuesday. Market didn't look that bad today. :blink: I'll be back on the F-fund for Wednesday and Thursday. :D

[airlift]

Yep, just did a one day move to the I-fund for Tuesday. Market didn't look that bad today. :blink: I'll be back on the F-fund for Wednesday and Thursday. :D

--Ebbnflow --I read the very persuasive article dated September 29, 2006, by MARK HULBERT, and did a quick scan through the other links you posted. Since I am still in a learning mode, please don't fail to post your changes as you make your moves. I still don't know what the cost of this system is. Can you help with this?

[ChemEng]

sponsor... Do you got a link to the article?

[airlift]

Gladly!, scroll up to message #185 ion this thread, where Ebbnflow kindly summarized the more salient points. Click on the article link! and also read the other links. -- Say you opinion ASAP! ---
sponsor... Do you got a link to the article?

[ChemEng]

So is the ebb tracker an actual database? that produces definate buy/sell signals? If thats the case, is there any reason not to share it on these boards? Im thinking an open source TSP tool would be a pretty cool idea that would be a great educational tool and also give it some exposure to other smart guys on the boards.

Ebb -- any chances of this happening? :)

[pyriel]

Ebb,
I'm already on my one knee and if your prediction comes true about the i fund tomorrow, the other knee will follow... I'll leave the bowing and praising for a later date....;-)

[airlift]

Ebbnflow,--

Are you moving your allocation to F tomorrow, or are you going to override the tracker. Whatever you do, I hold myself responsible for having gone to I today. It was a risky decision and I understand the risks. Moreover, the article written by Mark Hulbert clearly states that for these automatic systems to be effective, an investor should have a longer term horizon and ride the waves. The fact that I chose a high risk moment to enter the system is my own responsibility. So, I may accept my bad judgement tomorrow, cut my losses, and may just go back to the G fund. In any event, We will appreciate your opinion ASAP. Keep posting!

[ebbnflow]

So is the ebb tracker an actual database? that produces definate buy/sell signals? If thats the case, is there any reason not to share it on these boards? Im thinking an open source TSP tool would be a pretty cool idea that would be a great educational tool and also give it some exposure to other smart guys on the boards.

Ebb -- any chances of this happening? :)

That's right ChemEng, the ebb tracker is a database. Buy/sell signals are from uptrend/downtrend cycles I get from patterns that matches up with the ebb tracker. I don't think it's wise to share the technical stuff behind it at this time. Explaining the hows and whys of gathering data would be enough to dissuade me from doing this. Besides, it hasn't even been tested long enough to be considered a success. I also believe that a system needs to have some secrets for it to be truly appreciated. Isn't that right, Gilligan? ;)

[ebbnflow]

Ebbnflow,--

Are you moving your allocation to F tomorrow, or are you going to override the tracker. Whatever you do, I hold myself responsible for having gone to I today. It was a risky decision and I understand the risks. Moreover, the article written by Mark Hulbert clearly states that for these automatic systems to be effective, an investor should have a longer term horizon and ride the waves. The fact that I chose a high risk moment to enter the system is my own responsibility. So, I may accept my bad judgement tomorrow, cut my losses, and may just go back to the G fund. In any event, We will appreciate your opinion ASAP. Keep posting!
http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/bull.riding.gif Go Birchy, go Birchy! You're absolutely right, Sponsor. I'm back to the F-fund for Wednesday and Thursday. I'm riding the ebb tracker like Birchy rides his bull. Yep, the mechanical approach to trading. I like the sound of that. :rolleyes:

[ebbnflow]

Ebb,
I'm already on my one knee and if your prediction comes true about the i fund tomorrow, the other knee will follow... I'll leave the bowing and praising for a later date....;-)

Pyriel, can't you give me at least a week, please? :(

[airlift]

So is the ebb tracker an actual database? that produces definate buy/sell signals? If thats the case, is there any reason not to share it on these boards? Im thinking an open source TSP tool would be a pretty cool idea that would be a great educational tool and also give it some exposure to other smart guys on the boards.

Ebb -- any chances of this happening? :)
-

ChemEng --

In a previous post I asked Ebbnflow what was the cost of subscription and I did not get an answer. I took some risks by trying out his entries, but this is like flying blindly and without instruments. Not sure, but perhaps I will go to G or F today to cut losses, because this is a time to be cautious. It seems that his program seems to work as he is one of the leading individuals with a profitable track record on this board. Have you made sense of this? With his seemingly profitable record in this site, I wouldn't mind just being a follower, as long as this is the real thing. Is there any way we can get more info without offending sensibilities?

[ChemEng]

He obviously doesnt want to share it for whatever reason. Thats fine. The only reason that I can think to not share it is if there are any intentions of commercializing it at some point in the future. More power to him if thats the route he wants to take.

[Birchtree]

Sponsor,

Allow me to be delicate with your sensibilities - there are no systems. You are chasing after the holy grail of investing and it doesn't exist. All investing is about is mass psychology backed up with fundamentals and some technical analysis. When it comes right down to it you have to take your shot. Plan your strategy and use discipline with limited emotion - although the gut often times knows best. Think about all the people in the investment arena that have come before you - read some of their books. Many you will realize have previously flamed on their way to glory. Investing is truly more art than science - which makes it available to everyone, truly an equal opportunity to lose money. A wide open arena with lots of flexibility. Here is an example: Many years ago I was a health care department head during the Cater years of cost containment - Wall Street was scared to death that that was the end of the for profit industry. I of course knew better but still was forced to pay the price because I was alone in my thinking, but I kept adding to my pain by making more stock purchases in a down sector. About two years later when common sense began to prevail up comes the stock prices because earnings just continued to grow. And guess who was sitting there with their pockets full of health care stocks - it was a miracle that I was able to survive the hits, but that is when I slowly began to develope my strategy as a contrarian going against the crowd. The moral of this story is that you will eventually find your way - it's all trial and error. Good luck with the I fund.

[airlift]

Birchtree --

Frankly, I do appreciate your good advise, and will keep it in mind. I called it a system for lack of a better term. However, I am refering to a mechanical system alluded to in an article dated September 29, 2006, by Mark Hulbert (please scroll up and read post #186). An interesting article, which Ebbnflow posted when I requested information. Of coruse I know the Holy Grail exists, that's why we keep looking for it!...:)



Sponsor,

Allow me to be delicate with your sensibilities - there are no systems. You are chasing after the holy grail of investing and it doesn't exist. All investing is about is mass psychology backed up with fundamentals and some technical analysis. When it comes right down to it you have to take your shot. Plan your strategy and use discipline with limited emotion - although the gut often times knows best. Think about all the people in the investment arena that have come before you - read some of their books. Many you will realize have previously flamed on their way to glory. Investing is truly more art than science - which makes it available to everyone, truly an equal opportunity to lose money. A wide open arena with lots of flexibility. Here is an example: Many years ago I was a health care department head during the Cater years of cost containment - Wall Street was scared to death that that was the end of the for profit industry. I of course knew better but still was forced to pay the price because I was alone in my thinking, but I kept adding to my pain by making more stock purchases in a down sector. About two years later when common sense began to prevail up comes the stock prices because earnings just continued to grow. And guess who was sitting there with their pockets full of health care stocks - it was a miracle that I was able to survive the hits, but that is when I slowly began to develope my strategy as a contrarian going against the crowd. The moral of this story is that you will eventually find your way - it's all trial and error. Good luck with the I fund.

[airlift]

Ebbnflow --

I have read with awe and admiration the links you posted for me in post # 186. I also have re-read them. Thanks again. Yesterday I went into the I fund to test your system. Today, I plan to transfer to G or F. If I were really courageous I would transfer to F today, but I am somewhat apprehensive because I am relatively new to this board and I need to gain some confidence. But you have an impressive track record! All the members who have praised your work in this thread are your witnesses. Even if I transfer to G today, I will keep studying your posts. I anticipate that I will be back to your system after I get a breather! Please keep posting your indicators, because you will be doing a lot of good to many of us who read your account's progress.

[airlift]

I decided to transfer 100% to F. A risk taker, no doubt, but if I am trusting the track record I might as well test this in full. Wish me Luck!

[airlift]

Ebbnflow --

Since I transferred 100% from I to F, before noon today, I need to stay as informed as I can be regarding your tracker or your decision to override it. I am sure that you are looking at the improvement in the US indices this afternoon. I don't want to claim victory yet, but it seems to me that if this keeps up in the Afternoon, tomorrow could be a good follow-up day for theI fund. Assuming that occurs, would you consider overriding the tracker which indicated that one is to stay in F until Thursday? Whatever you do, I will appreciate your updated opinion. Thank you.

[ebbnflow]

Ebbnflow --

Since I transferred 100% from I to F, before noon today, I need to stay as informed as I can be regarding your tracker or your decision to override it. I am sure that you are looking at the improvement in the US indices this afternoon. I don't want to claim victory yet, but it seems to me that if this keeps up in the Afternoon, tomorrow could be a good follow-up day for theI fund. Assuming that occurs, would you consider overriding the tracker which indicated that one is to stay in F until Thursday? Whatever you do, I will appreciate your updated opinion. Thank you.

I will be posting as usual, Sponsor. I know it was a risk to be on the I-fund for today, but with the ebb tracker producing an uptrend signal, I had to take the chance. Although I took some loss, it gives me satisfaction to see the market move up the way the ebb tracker expected it to be. The patterns in the ebb tracker's database are like historical snapshots of the market's performance on any given day. Matching today's patterns from past patterns to get a trend is what it does best. The fact that history has a way of repeating itself only makes it more compelling. :D

[ebbnflow]

What does the new Dow high mean? Do we get a rally for tomorrow or a couple of days pullback? :D

[airlift]

What does the new Dow high mean? Do we get a rally for tomorrow or a couple of days pullback? :D-

This is the question! If wishful thinking had controlling weight in this, you can rest assured that tomorrow and Thursday would be down days, and that we would be in the I fund for Friday. Of course, I hope the tracker has picked up the right signals.:)

[weatherweenie]

"I know it was a risk to be on the I-fund for today, but with the ebb tracker producing an uptrend signal, I had to take the chance. Although I took some loss, it gives me satisfaction to see the market move up the way the ebb tracker expected it to be."

I'd like to know what source you use to find the value of the I Fund ahead of the tsp site?

Based on the quote of the EFA I thought we'd be flat to slightly up.

[FUTURESTRADER]

"I know it was a risk to be on the I-fund for today, but with the ebb tracker producing an uptrend signal, I had to take the chance. Although I took some loss, it gives me satisfaction to see the market move up the way the ebb tracker expected it to be."

I'd like to know what source you use to find the value of the I Fund ahead of the tsp site?

Based on the quote of the EFA I thought we'd be flat to slightly up.

start here, weanie :)

http://www.mscibarra.com/products/indices/stdindex/performance.jsp

then review I fund forum and fair value or FV references

[airlift]

Read this post and also review the links posted. ---




That's right Sponsor, the ebb tracker has given me good signals (entry/exit points) throughout the year. I'd probably end up with less than half of what I've gotten on the Weekly Tracker (+12.66 since June, averaging over +3.00% gains/month YTD) without it. That's why it is so important to have patience and discipline when it comes to sticking with a system. Click here to read the article (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B0B7F9137%2D8531%2D4261%2DA89C%2 DA46F389A8506%7D&siteid=). :)

In streamlining the ebb tracker system, I have tried to make it as absolute as it can be by getting rid of extraneous inputs (emotion/gut feeling), and other sundry background noises. The output I get from the ebb tracker does not leave anything to interpretation, in other words, I too am "extolling the virtues of a mechanical approach." :D

You can get some idea of the ebb tracker in my talk with other board members:

Retire: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=6;post#62
FundSurfer: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=8;post#94
Griffin: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=9;post#99
Wheels: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=9;post#107

[weatherweenie]

Is there a reliable source to track the I fund during the day?

[ebbnflow]

Is there a reliable source to track the I fund during the day?

I don't know of any besides Yahoo's EFA chart. We can usually have an idea of how the I-fund is doing by how the overseas markets performed. We can also check the USD index to see how the dollar is performing against the other currencies. An sharp upward movement by the US market can also affect the I-fund's price. A good example of that would be today. The Asian markets were down, Euro markets were up, dollar was up, and the I-fund was supposed to be -.074% down for the day, but as it turned out the US market took off like a rocket. The I-fund ended up with +.18 cents instead of losing a cent courtesy of a positive FV (+.19 cents). That FV should be corrected (given back) either tomorrow of Friday.

[ebbnflow]

Only three days in the month and the I-fund is already off like a rocket. The ebb tracker misfired today, but rest assured that this day has been duly noted and filed away. I was sitting on the F-fund (+.03 cents) while the I-fund (+.18 cents) advances with the help of hefty FV (+.19 cents). Still even for the week and getting antsy by the day. :D

[ebbnflow]

Psssttt, the bears are coming out of the woodworks! :D

[airlift]

Only three days in the month and the I-fund is already off like a rocket. The ebb tracker misfired today, but rest assured that this day has been duly noted and filed away. I was sitting on the F-fund (+.03 cents) while the I-fund (+.18 cents) advances with the help of hefty FV (+.19 cents). Still even for the week and getting antsy by the day. :D--

Ebb --

Since the ebb tracker misfired yesterday, how would you play this? Are you going to override the tracker, which calls for a transfer from F to I today before noon? Your next post indicates that the bears are coming out of the woodwork. How are you handling this? Thanks in advance for your opinion before noon today.

[FUTURESTRADER]

I don't know of any besides Yahoo's EFA chart. We can usually have an idea of how the I-fund is doing by how the overseas markets performed. We can also check the USD index to see how the dollar is performing against the other currencies. An sharp upward movement by the US market can also affect the I-fund's price. A good example of that would be today. The Asian markets were down, Euro markets were up, dollar was up, and the I-fund was supposed to be -.074% down for the day, but as it turned out the US market took off like a rocket. The I-fund ended up with +.18 cents instead of losing a cent courtesy of a positive FV (+.19 cents). That FV should be corrected (given back) either tomorrow of Friday.

or could be a partial FV correction today and friday?? $.09 thurs/$.10 fri???..ol boy greggy had daily increments of 50% figured out pretty succesfully.

[ebbnflow]

--

Ebb --

Since the ebb tracker misfired yesterday, how would you play this? Are you going to override the tracker, which calls for a transfer from F to I today before noon? Your next post indicates that the bears are coming out of the woodwork. How are you handling this? Thanks in advance for your opinion before noon today.

I'm overriding the ebb tracker for the first time this year. I figured we're getting close to a full moon (July 7) anyways and the ebb tracker hasn't won on the second week of every month since June. It's not that I believe the full moon has an effect on it, more like the market reacting to people's subconcious awareness of the full moon.

[vectorman]

So by over-riding, are you staying F or thinking G?

[ebbnflow]

or could be a partial FV correction today and friday?? $.09 thurs/$.10 fri???..ol boy greggy had daily increments of 50% figured out pretty succesfully.

Yep, they have used partial FVs before, I think. :D

[ebbnflow]

I'm overriding the ebb tracker for the first time this year. I figured we're getting close to a full moon (July 7) anyways and the ebb tracker hasn't won on the second week of every month since June. It's not that I believe the full moon has an effect on it, more like the market reacting to people's subconcious awareness of the full moon.

Just to be clear, I'm staying with the F-fund today. :D

[airlift]

FUTURESTRADER -Who is Greggy? --
or could be a partial FV correction today and friday?? $.09 thurs/$.10 fri???..ol boy greggy had daily increments of 50% figured out pretty succesfully.

[FUTURESTRADER]

FUTURESTRADER -Who is Greggy? --

M_M's buddy :)

he used to be on here and had a pretty good handle on when they would put a FV on, based on EAFE. FV would be +/- ~.50% over/under I fund, per day. Sometimes FV would be as much as +/- 1.50% over/under and he would table this on a daily basis to show a very clear pattern. Very helpful but he was/is kind of a hot head (among other things, I can only speculate :) and he did scold me a few times.

[airlift]

Thanks for the clarification! --
M_M's buddy :)

he used to be on here and had a pretty good handle on when they would put a FV on, based on EAFE. FV would be +/- ~.50% over/under I fund, per day. Sometimes FV would be as much as +/- 1.50% over/under and he would table this on a daily basis to show a very clear pattern. Very helpful but he was/is kind of a hot head (among other things, I can only speculate :) and he did scold me a few times.

[ebbnflow]

I'm ready to play the ebb tracker's down cycle seasonality. I started it for tomorrow by going against the ebb tracker. When I mentioned that I haven't won on the second week of every month since being tracked in June, someone (Griffin) said something about the full moon being on the 2nd week. I checked the ebb tracker's backtested results for 2005 and found most (70%) of my losing weeks came on the 3rd and 4th week. At first I felt relieved, but then I got hold of the phases of the moon chart for 2005 (http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/MoonPhase.html). I guess you know where I'm going with this, the full moon for 2005 fell between the 3rd and 4th week of every month. :nuts:

Right now the trend cycles are a bit off for the ebb tracker with the full moon right smack dab in the middle of the 1st and 2nd week. I know that without going through all this I'd still end up with great gains, but I just couldn't pass up on turning the losses into more gains. Dang, I got to ask forgiveness for sounding more like an astrologer today than a market timer. :D

[ebbnflow]

2003.............................................. ...................................Jun 16 (+.13)...Jul 14 (+.13)...Aug 12 (+.04)...Sep 10 (-.09)...Oct 10 (+.07)...Nov 10 (-.04)...Dec 08 (-.03)
2004 Jan 07 (-.10)...Feb 06 (+.16)...Mar 08 (-.05)...Apr 05 (+.05)...May 04 (+.16)...Jun 03 (-.08)...Jul 02 (+.01)...Aug 30 (-.02)...Sep 28 (+.04)...Oct 28 (+.10)...Nov 26 (+.15)...Dec 27 (+.15)
2005 Jan 25 (-.05)...Feb 24 (even)...Mar 28 (-.04)...Apr 25 (-.02)...May 23 (+.14)...Jun 22 (+.01)...Jul 21 (+.03)...Aug 19 (+.07)...Sep 19 (-.03)...Oct 17 (-.18)...Nov 16 (-.05)...Dec 15 (-.16)
2006 Jan 17 (-.28)...Feb 13 (-.06)...Mar 14 (+.15)...Apr 13 (+.03)...May 15 (-.29)...Jun 12 (-.31)...Jul 11 (-.02)...Aug 09 (even)...Sep 07 (-.28)...

2003 +.21 cents
2004 +.57 cents
2005 -.28 cents
2006 -1.06 (that's a dollar plus!)

During the last couple of years with the market's volume up, we went red. Yep, that's a total of $1.06 in the red for the I-fund on every full moon so far this year. The ebb tracker is supposed to be on the I-fund for Monday and Tuesday next week, so if I play this right I should be on the G-fund for Monday to pick up the G-penny and then back on the F-fund for Tuesday. :D

Note: If the full moon lands on a weekend (July 7), then the next market day (July 10) is affected. The phase of the moon calendar (http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/MoonPhase.html) using Universal Time was used for the dates above. :D

[ebbnflow]

So by over-riding, are you staying F or thinking G?

Sorry Vectorman, I missed your post! I was on the F-fund for today and tomorrow (Friday). But I will be on the G-fund for Tuesday to pick up the G-penny. :D

[ebbnflow]

During the last couple of years with the market's volume up, we went red. Yep, that's a total of $1.06 in the red for the I-fund on every full moon so far this year. The ebb tracker is supposed to be on the I-fund for Monday and Tuesday next week, so if I play this right I should be on the G-fund for Monday to pick up the G-penny and then back on the F-fund for Tuesday. :D

Note: If the full moon lands on a weekend (July 7), then the next market day (July 10) is affected. The phase of the moon calendar (http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/MoonPhase.html) using Universal Time was used for the dates above. :D

I forgot Monday is Thanksgiving! Please substitute Tuesday and Wednesday for Monday and Tuesday. Sorry. :cheesy:

[ebbnflow]

If we make an IFT before noon Friday, we would be in for Monday, since the market is open, right? But won't be able to switch funds until Tuesday, right? We would be stuck for a couple of days on the same fund Monday and Tuesday then. :(

[grandma]

If we make an IFT before noon Friday, we would be in for Monday, since the market is open, right? But won't be able to switch funds until Tuesday, right? We would be stuck for a couple of days on the same fund Monday and Tuesday then. :(

My understanding, Ebbnflow, is that when market closes Friday, that is where you are untill you make a new ift on Tuesday....as tho we have three Saturday's.
But - you know how confusing all this can be -

for example - are we having Thanksgiving on Monday to thank Columbus, or are we changing November's Thanksgiving from Thursday to Mondays?
_quote:___________I forgot Monday is Thanksgiving! Please substitute Tuesday and Wednesday for Monday and Tuesday. Sorry. :cheesy:
________________________

[ebbnflow]

Grandma, thanks for the IFT info and sorry for the Columbus/Thanksgiving mix-up. I was looking at a free supermarket calendar that just happened to have October 9 for Thanksgiving, but upon closer inspection turned out to be Canadian day for Thanksgiving. :D

[airlift]

This mix-up is very funny! Ebbnflow thanks to Grandma we aren't having Turkey again so soon! --




Grandma, thanks for the IFT info and sorry for the Columbus/Thanksgiving mix-up. I was looking at a free supermarket calendar that just happened to have October 9 for Thanksgiving, but upon closer inspection turned out to be Canadian day for Thanksgiving. :D

[ebbnflow]

During the last couple of years with the market's volume up, we went red. Yep, that's a total of $1.06 in the red for the I-fund on every full moon so far this year. The ebb tracker is supposed to be on the I-fund for Monday and Tuesday next week, so if I play this right I should be on the G-fund for Monday to pick up the G-penny and then back on the F-fund for Tuesday. :D

Note: If the full moon lands on a weekend (*July 7), then the next market day (*July 10) is affected. The phase of the moon calendar (http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/MoonPhase.html) using Universal Time was used for the dates above. :D

* Should read October and apparently October 9 (Monday), the market is open. And no IFTs allowed because of holiday. So, I'd be sticking with the G-fund come Monday. :)

[grandma]

but upon closer inspection turned out to be Canadian day for Thanksgiving. :D
EB- I might should have picked up on that considering all of us kids are 1st generation American USA -.... but I don't recall us ever celebrating it - must have been declared After the exit! Hee!! Hee !!

Fiercely USA American & Proud OF it!!!! http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y106/triso/smileycarole.gif

[ebbnflow]

EB- I might should have picked up on that considering all of us kids are 1st generation American USA -.... but I don't recall us ever celebrating it - must have been declared After the exit! Hee!! Hee !!

Fiercely USA American & Proud OF it!!!! http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y106/triso/smileycarole.gif
http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/flag.gif USA! USA! USA! Here's to you, Grandma! ;)

[ebbnflow]

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/2006.gif

Just by looking at this price chart for the I-fund, I'd say we're due for a big drop on Monday and Tuesday. Check out Mondays (-.29,-.47,-.35,-.31) and Tuesdays (-.25,-.33,-.54) for May and June, and nothing much for the next three months of July, August and September. Besides, it is Octoberfest, dontcha know. :D

I should have started the full moon episode two days earlier. As it turned out I sidestepped a drop on the I-fund (-.14 cents) last friday only to get hit by the F-train (-.05 cents). I have warned on this thread about the effects of the full moon on our beloved I-fund, so we should see that reflected on Tuesday's prices. :rolleyes:

[airlift]

Any news from Ebbnflow?

[FUTURESTRADER]

Any news from Ebbnflow?

lol..I was looking too. Looks like he's still in G though from last week.

[ebbnflow]

Sorry guys for not posting (still on G-fund), been busy lately. Anyways, I figured the ebb tracker doesn't do well on the 2nd week of this year, so I was just letting it slip by quietly. I'm already gearing up myself for next week. The full moon seasonality didn't pan out for this month (Tuesday gained +.04 cents). I'd be acting as chicken little again when the next full moon comes around (Nov 5th, I-fund still $1.02 in the red). :D

[ebbnflow]

Chicken Little is back! I say if we're going to have a pullback, it would happen on Monday and Tuesday. In more than three months we haven't had a drop bigger than 21 cents in those days (check I-fund price chart above). I know it's not scientifically based, just my sense of balance and distribution talking. :rolleyes:
Anyways, since I'm still on the G-fund, I'm glad the I-fund didn't stick it to me again today (-.08 cents). I'm back to using the ebb tracker for next week and would remain with the G-fund for a couple of days (forget the F-train). I should be back on the I-fund for Wednesday. Good luck to all! :D

[fabijo]

Thanks for the update, ebb. I should have went with your choice by going with the G instead of the F. I'm still waiting for that pull back!

[ebbnflow]

Thanks for the update, ebb. I should have went with your choice by going with the G instead of the F. I'm still waiting for that pull back!

Yep, the F-train is not the place to be nowadays, fabijo. :mad: I should be changing my signature any day now. :D

[nnuut]

Yeah, I thought you might run into a problem when th market changed. Nice to see that you are adjusting to these changes.:D Flexibility!

[ebbnflow]

Dang, what a conundrum! The Japanese market is going to tank tonight and that's a given. Tomorrow we might get good numbers and the market bounces. What to do, what to do? Taking a chance, and going with the I-fund. Hope we get an FV our way. I got a feeling I'd regret this later. :D

[ebbnflow]

Emotions be gone! I already missed out on the I-fund's gain last Monday. Staying the course with the I-fund for Thursday and bailing out to the G-fund on Friday. I will be staying on the G-fund to pick up the G-penny next Monday. :D

[ebbnflow]

After spending the first two weeks in the red, I'm finally in the black (+.09 cents today on the I-fund)! Looking good for the overseas tonight, especially with Apple's earnings climbing 27% on after-hours trading. Expecting the dollar to drop some for tomorrow. Good luck all! :D

[ebbnflow]

After spending the first two weeks in the red, I'm finally in the black (*+.09 cents today on the I-fund)!

*Correction: Make that +.10 cents today (Wednesday) for the I-fund. :D

[The_Technician]

Ebb....whats with the dates on your transactions, they don't coincide with the post date nor the day of the week that you post .....:confused:

[ebbnflow]

I don't know if it's the best time to bail out now or tomorrow to the G-fund, but I got to go with the ebb tracker (going G-fund). It's working on a four day streak (if I count Monday when I opted to pick the G-penny) today. Good luck all! :D

[ebbnflow]

Ebb....whats with the dates on your transactions, they don't coincide with the post date nor the day of the week that you post .....:confused:

Hi ya, Techie! I don't know what you mean. What dates were you referring to? http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/biggrinner.gif

[The_Technician]

Hi ya, Techie! I don't know what you mean. What dates were you referring to?

Like this one today....its Thursday the 19th...



10/20/06 - 100% G - IFT before noon Thursday http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-4/1168157/nutser.gif
__________________
Playin' only the I and the F Fund. Thar's gold in them thar hills.

???:confused: Are you trying to say for the 20th you will be in the "G"??? Or are you saying you will transfer before deadline on Thursday to 100% G??? and the 10/20/06 date is irrelevant.....?????

Or is it something else you mean....

Maybe you could say

10/19/06-transferred to "G"

;)