AAII Investor Sentiment Survey

[tsptalk]

This past weekend the TSP Talk members sentiment survey saw 66% bulls and 18% bears. One of the most bullish responses we've ever had (usually not good for the market).

Yesterday's AAII survey saw just 31% bulls and 50% bears (50% is very high and actually a positive sign for stocks).

One difference is that the TSP Talk survey was taken prior to the 180 point drop on Tuesday, and the AAII was taken after. But still, that is some difference.

[tsptalk]

I did a little research and saw that this bull market, which started 4 1/2 years ago, has not seen a major pullback of 5% or more, while the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey was not at least very close to 2 to 1 bulls to bears.

The current 1.26 to 1 ratio is a neural reading and nowhere close. It is actually closer to the 1 to 1 buy signal than a sell signal. Can this continue?

I can see a big rally next week take it towards 2 to 1, but until then I think there is too much buying power and we won't get the 5% plus pullback until we see more than 1.9 or more to 1 bulls to bears.

Of course a news related incident could put a scare in the market, but these small dips should continue to be bought until sentiment gets more bullish.

I will be posting the research chart in Monday's (6/25/07) comments.

[Bullitt]

AAII today came in at 45% bull, 25% bear; almost exactly the same as we were in mid January 2010.

[Birchtree]

http://pragcap.com/bullish-sentiment-surges-near-january-high

[Bullitt]

Investors Intelligence. The spread continues to widen to extremes not seen since October 2007.

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/chartfx62/temp/CFT0427_0812053E548.png

[tsptalk]

9/15/10 AAII Survey:

51% bulls, 24% bears, ratio 2.1 to 1

http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

[nnuut]

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