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Wheels
03-09-2004, 04:40 PM
What happened to the Wilshire 4500 today. On the Wilshire website there is no info past about noon. Tom, your ticker includes the Wilshire quote that stopped at about noon. Did it stop trading today for some reason? I'll know soon enough when TSP puts the share prices up, but I thought somebody here might know something.



Dave

tsptalk
03-09-2004, 05:18 PM
I noticed that too. Not sure what happened there. The Russell 2000 small cap index was down over 1% and the S&P 400 and 600 (small and mid cap indices) were off just under 1% so I'd guess we'll see a loss in the area of .9%.

Fivetears
08-07-2006, 12:05 PM
What will a 1 day of emotion bring for those who chanced tomorrow, & the FED?

nnuut
08-07-2006, 12:36 PM
Maybe 96Tears?!!!!!:D I'll be right there with them, probably a no brainer?:(

Fivetears
08-07-2006, 12:44 PM
96 Tears
(Written by Ruby Martinez)
Question Mark & the Mysterians
Garland Jeffries
Todd Rundgren

Fivetears
08-07-2006, 12:51 PM
The S Fund has been in a flat-line, with a good spike to the positive side. The emotion could be good for a day... maybe two. I intend to sieze the day; win or lose.

nnuut
08-07-2006, 01:31 PM
96 Tears
(Written by Ruby Martinez)
Question Mark & the Mysterians
Garland Jeffries
Todd Rundgren

Great song FT, classic stuff. How would it sound to sing it with 5tears not 96tears? Crummy! You are a music trivia expert.:D

Fivetears
08-07-2006, 02:19 PM
Had a little WWW help; many say the Rolly Stokers did it.

nnuut
08-07-2006, 02:36 PM
Rolly Stokers? I always thought Question Mark & the Mysterians. Ya never know!:D

Pilgrim
08-14-2006, 10:30 AM
We are off to a good day, all stock funds rising at the moment. S fund is more oversold than C and one would think it would be out in front, yet it lags. Today SHOULD be a day for it to soar, but it is slowly sagging.

After a three year love affair with S, I think it is time to get a divorce.

sugarandspice
08-14-2006, 07:12 PM
up 2 cents today

Birchtree
08-14-2006, 07:49 PM
Check the triple bottom at the 1/06 support line before flushing.

Oldcoin
08-14-2006, 09:45 PM
Check the triple bottom at the 1/06 support line before flushing.

Hey BT, I was thinking that we may need another 1.5% down to 537 to get the last bottom. What do you think? Be gentle Iím a newbie.

Birchtree
08-14-2006, 09:54 PM
I wouldn't wait to catch the absolute bottom - it's down enough to cause pain and good pricing. Go for 75% if you enjoy risk - keep 25% incase it does drop some more. The run back to 780 may be faster than the drop - leaving a good many previous owners at the station. It looks so bad it has to be golden.

Oldcoin
08-14-2006, 10:10 PM
Thanks BT, I donít want to get too greedy and miss the train. The intraday swings in the market have made me a bit nervous. It would be just my luck to put in the transfer and have the market take off for a one day flight. Yikes! What fun

Fivetears
08-17-2006, 11:41 AM
The S Fund is on Steriods this week!

FundSurfer
08-18-2006, 09:44 AM
The S-fund still lags the C-fund and the I-fund in terms of recovery following the recent decline. I think it has a little more potiential right now than the other two, although the I-fund has been doing really well. The I fund has recovered 74% of the decline, C-fund has recovered 79% of the decline, and the S-fund has recovered only 37% of the decline.

vectorman
08-18-2006, 07:31 PM
The S-fund still lags the C-fund and the I-fund in terms of recovery following the recent decline. I think it has a little more potiential right now than the other two, although the I-fund has been doing really well. The I fund has recovered 74% of the decline, C-fund has recovered 79% of the decline, and the S-fund has recovered only 37% of the decline.

Some of the recent talking heads on CNBC say since many believe the U.S. economy is slowing they are taking advantage of the falling dollar and putting more money in over seas major markets as a defensive move. The belief of a hard landing and slowing economy is holding back the S fund back short term.

vectorman
08-18-2006, 07:40 PM
The S-fund still lags the C-fund and the I-fund in terms of recovery following the recent decline. I think it has a little more potiential right now than the other two, although the I-fund has been doing really well. The I fund has recovered 74% of the decline, C-fund has recovered 79% of the decline, and the S-fund has recovered only 37% of the decline.

Some of the recent talking heads on CNBC say since many believe the U.S. economy is slowing they are taking advantage of the falling dollar and putting more money in over seas major markets as a defensive move. The belief of a hard landing and slowing economy is holding back the S fund back short term.

SkyPilot
08-18-2006, 07:49 PM
Hey Vector dude! Sounds like a recipe for I funding now :) .

Birchtree
08-18-2006, 07:58 PM
Try and keep an eye on the hedge fund money flows - they were responsible for the last spill - their loyalty is worth only an eigth of a point. Go where they are afraid to tread.

tsptalk
08-18-2006, 08:11 PM
The S-fund still lags the C-fund and the I-fund in terms of recovery following the recent decline. I think it has a little more potiential right now than the other two, although the I-fund has been doing really well. The I fund has recovered 74% of the decline, C-fund has recovered 79% of the decline, and the S-fund has recovered only 37% of the decline.

MZM money is still very tight which puts growth on hold. Value is paying now but for how long? ... don't know exactly. The fed is going to have to open the flood gates if the economy shows any weakness. Then the S fund can shine again. I'll keep an eye on those monetary indicators, the one leg of the market that is lagging. The others, psychology and relative valuation, are quite strong. It's just a matter of time.

vectorman
08-18-2006, 08:15 PM
The S Fund is on Steriods this week!

Since last Friday, Aug 11th. S fund up 61 cents a share vs the I fund up 56 cents a share. :D

Show-me
08-18-2006, 08:28 PM
For the month of August.

C fund.......2.21%

S fund.......1.31%

I fund....... 2.40%

vectorman
08-18-2006, 08:38 PM
:D
Hey Vector dude! Sounds like a recipe for I funding now :) .

The one thing I've learned from watching those talking heads on CNBC is that they tell you what is going on after the fact. They are the ones who have bought international stock back in the middle of June. Now that its up big they want the amateur investor to run to internationals and push then alittle higher while at the same time the big boys are selling and buying small caps. In about two months you'll hear how great small caps are and that is the place to be, after the fact.;)

SkyPilot
08-18-2006, 10:41 PM
Reminds me of the battle of wits from The Princess Bride (Vizzini's Logic). :)

Robo5555
08-20-2006, 06:37 PM
Vectorman......I think ur right on target.

vectorman
08-30-2006, 09:34 PM
The S-fund still lags the C-fund and the I-fund in terms of recovery following the recent decline. I think it has a little more potiential right now than the other two, although the I-fund has been doing really well. The I fund has recovered 74% of the decline, C-fund has recovered 79% of the decline, and the S-fund has recovered only 37% of the decline.

Come on S fund, getty up. http://www.tspmoney.com/prev/index3.html :D

Birchtree
08-30-2006, 10:52 PM
I own it but I don't trust it unless we are on the upside beginning of the next 4 year cycle. But I'm curious enough to stay and watch the gains pile up for awhile - but not another 7 years. Maybe until 2/07.

Wheels
08-30-2006, 11:21 PM
JDS Uniphase is getting whooped after hours. I hope that doesn't drag down the Nas and the S tomorrow.

tsptalk
08-31-2006, 12:22 AM
Actually the S&P, Nasdaq and Russell futures are all up nicely right now.

Birchtree
08-31-2006, 02:32 PM
The R2K AD MCO exhibited a classic relationship with price since mid-May, 2006. The R2K AD MCO posted a negative extreme, which is almost always followed by lower price lows, which occurred. Then, in late Fune, the R2K AD MCO achieved a positive extreme, but failed to carve more than a simple structure above its zero line - suggesting more work was needed in the bottoming formation process. Now the R2K AD has carved out a pattern of higher lows/higher highs, constructive action for the intermediate term. Currently at +73, the R2K AD MCO would need another 8 points to exceed its late June/early July thrust to +80. A good sign for the bulls when enough liquidity is available to find its way into this group. There is accumulation underway in the small cap universe. Makes me think with the triple bottom in place that the 4 year cycle has passed and is now on the upswing. Snort.

Robo5555
08-31-2006, 05:57 PM
Hello, Do u guys have a good link for futures??

tsptalk
08-31-2006, 06:11 PM
http://www.cme.com/trading/dta/del/globex.html

Birchtree
09-09-2006, 09:09 PM
With the slowing economy. the strong performance of the stocks of small and midsize companies - a domonant trend for the past several years - could quickly come to an end. In fact, there are signs it is happening now. In the past three months, the average stock fund investing in large company stocks has gained 2.1%, while small-cap stock funds lost 2.4%. FWIW.

Robo5555
09-20-2006, 05:53 PM
Looks like a dime gain today.....maybe .11 cents

Robo5555
09-26-2006, 08:39 AM
S vs I.....based on the last six weeks the S fund has outperformed the I fund by a mile. Seems like a case of what you've done for me lately rather than a long haul. You all think this is going to press until the end of the year??

FundSurfer
09-26-2006, 08:57 AM
1109
1110

Robo5555
10-02-2006, 03:16 PM
looks loke another prob down day for the S fund....at this pace over 10 cents....might be a good time to jump in for the short term....any suggestions..??

Birchtree
10-02-2006, 04:24 PM
Over the past decade, small-caps have tended to perform well during the last two months of the year. I'm holding my OTCFX fund until Spring and will then continue to peel off shares for redistribution. There are still too many hedge funds and small speculators that are currently short - this is positive from a contrarian perspective. Buy now pay later.

Robo5555
10-02-2006, 11:14 PM
Good outlook....thanks for the info

FundSurfer
10-03-2006, 10:37 AM
Below is my current short term s-fund chart. The last data point is an estimate based on early action being down ~0.7%.
1119
I'm a buyer once we see some green. We are headed below the current channel but there is a resistance point to act as support. If the fund bounces off that resistance (maybe this afternoon maybe tommorrow), I'll then have a green light for the S-fund. Right now I'm staying away because we don't know how far it will drop (if below resistance - watch out). I'll also keep in mind that the C-fund and I-fund are both outperforming the S-fund right now. I may take positions in those fund prior to taking a position inthe S-fund.

airlift
10-03-2006, 10:47 AM
FundSurfer --

As I have told you before, I also read your posts with respect and concentrated attention. I will appreciate that you post the other charts and/or opinions as you have done previously for the other TSP funds! (please disregard this request if you have already done so). Thank you. --



Below is my current short term s-fund chart. The last data point is an estimate based on early action being down ~0.7%.
1119
I'm a buyer once we see some green. We are headed below the current channel but there is a resistance point to act as support. If the fund bounces off that resistance (maybe this afternoon maybe tommorrow), I'll then have a green light for the S-fund. Right now I'm staying away because we don't know how far it will drop (if below resistance - watch out). I'll also keep in mind that the C-fund and I-fund are both outperforming the S-fund right now. I may take positions in those fund prior to taking a position inthe S-fund.

Robo5555
10-03-2006, 10:59 AM
FundSurfer....do u have these charts for Cand I funds....?

Robo5555
10-03-2006, 11:00 AM
C and I??

FundSurfer
10-03-2006, 12:12 PM
posted in the respective threads.

Robo5555
10-04-2006, 01:29 PM
looks like this puppy is gonna take off today!!!!!....we still got 2.5 hours.....

Robo5555
10-04-2006, 02:13 PM
Wow.....less than 2 hours to go and this is still flying.....up 1.04%

Birchtree
10-04-2006, 02:14 PM
I sure am missing the explosive gains in the S fund today. All the guys I work with say that all I do lately is whine, whine, and whine some more. I know it's my own fall. Maybe I'll hold out until Indian summer arrives in a few weeks. I'll gladly pay $18.00 and be thankful for the opportunity.

Robo5555
10-04-2006, 02:58 PM
There is always another day Birch....been on the sidelines when this happens quite a few times myself.

Robo5555
10-04-2006, 07:14 PM
Monster day for the S fund!!!

nnuut
10-04-2006, 09:50 PM
I sure am missing the explosive gains in the S fund today. All the guys I work with say that all I do lately is whine, whine, and whine some more. I know it's my own fall. Maybe I'll hold out until Indian summer arrives in a few weeks. I'll gladly pay $18.00 and be thankful for the opportunity.
That's alright, hard head, I stuck with you today, 50% "C", but we did well keep it up!:D

FUTURESTRADER
10-05-2006, 11:44 AM
I like this S action catching up to the C...just wish I could put in a trailing stop :)

weatherweenie
10-05-2006, 03:18 PM
While I'm happy the S fund is currently up 1.12% today, I'm hoping it saves some for tomorrow when I go from 20% to 50% S.

Robo5555
10-05-2006, 03:27 PM
I'm out as of cob today....got an awesome couple of days in the S fund!! Taking my winnings to the G fund for a day or two.

Robo5555
10-05-2006, 03:30 PM
Keeps going.....1.22% and cooking.....

Robo5555
10-05-2006, 04:09 PM
1.2% for the day....a gain of .21 cents!!!

Robo5555
10-05-2006, 07:24 PM
The S fund has outperformed every other fund in the last six weeks. It has to take a breather but at this pace I think its looking real good from now to the end of the year.

James48843
10-09-2006, 01:37 PM
"S" is clearly the place to be.

Go "S" Go!

2EASY
10-11-2006, 10:41 AM
Am I missing something? S fund should be up .35. Not down

DOW JONES WILSHIRE 4500 COMPLET (DJI:^DWCPF)

Index Value: 580.72
Trade Time: 10:37AM ET
Change: 1.75 (0.30%)
Prev Close: 580.37
Open: 580.37
Day's Range: 579.08 - 583.04
52wk Range: N/A

New! Try our new Charts in Beta
1d 5d

GUCHI
10-11-2006, 11:23 AM
thats what i'm screamin !!! :confused:

Pilgrim
10-11-2006, 12:20 PM
'tis a puzzlement. DWCP is down but DWCPF is up. CNN and Marketwatch only recognize the former, while Yahoo only recognizes the latter. We have had lots of discussion about these two, never did figure out which one actually follows the S fund.

airlift
10-11-2006, 01:52 PM
Try $EMW at StockCharts.com -- almost perfect mirror-image of the S Fund! --



'tis a puzzlement. DWCP is down but DWCPF is up. CNN and Marketwatch only recognize the former, while Yahoo only recognizes the latter. We have had lots of discussion about these two, never did figure out which one actually follows the S fund.

weatherweenie
10-11-2006, 02:25 PM
I'm pretty sure the S fund follows DWCPF. It's down 0.55% at this time.

Griffin
10-11-2006, 05:43 PM
'tis a puzzlement. DWCP is down but DWCPF is up. CNN and Marketwatch only recognize the former, while Yahoo only recognizes the latter. We have had lots of discussion about these two, never did figure out which one actually follows the S fund.

This comes from the How low can it go thread (post #8)


Pilgrim, I recently stumbled upon the answer. The difference is that the DWCPF is a float adjusted index versus the DWCP is a full capitilazation index both of the Dow Jones Wilshire 4500. In english, it's easier to describe by example: if Company A and Company B each have ten million shares in existence and Company C has 20 million shares then under the full capitilzation index, company C will have twice the weight as A and B and A and B will have the same weight. Under a free float index, the weighting is a function of the number of shares available, so if company A is sitting on 50% of it's stock and company B is sitting on 60% of it's stock, company A will have greater weight. The S-fund is based on the floating index according to the fund sheet at TSP.gov

The DWCPF is the more accurate index to follow. I still don't know the answer to the Yahoo question, bugs the hell out me too.:)

These funds composition are so similar that I do not believe it is possible for them to be more then a few hundreths of a percent different in their returns

James48843
10-12-2006, 03:20 PM
Am I missing something? S fund should be up .35. Not down




I've noticed that over the last few days too. Not the exact right percentages on Yahoo.

Robo5555
10-12-2006, 05:36 PM
This fund is looking better by the day....prob the place to be until the end of the year.

weatherweenie
10-13-2006, 12:21 PM
Just when I thought it couldn't go any higher.

S +0.48%

Mind if I drool on y'alls money? :cheesy:

weatherweenie
10-13-2006, 03:41 PM
3:30 pm with the Dow at all-time highs, investors are rotating out of blue chips and into faster growing areas like technology. Small caps are currently faring very well as the underlying bullish tone attracts less risk-averse bargain hunters into the Russell 2000, which is turning in the day's best performance (+0.7%) but is still more than 3% off its all-time high of 784.62 (May 5).

James48843
10-13-2006, 04:17 PM
"S" closes up +0.57%

Robo5555
10-13-2006, 08:20 PM
This is doing great!!!!

James48843
10-13-2006, 10:05 PM
And it should continue to do great.

Take a look at the numbers of advance issues vs. declines, and in up volume vs. down volume, especialy on NASDAQ:

http://finance.yahoo.com/advances

This tells me (gut feeling) that the rally is still in full motion upwards.

I do not expect a change in the trend until the the advances and declines merge, and the "new highs" and "new lows" meet. At this rate, I THINK we still have much more upside potential in the "S", and that is going to be better in my crystal ball than the other options.

Robo5555
10-17-2006, 11:23 AM
Good observation james.... lets make some money!!!

GUCHI
10-18-2006, 10:04 AM
whats up with the chart ???? it looks like it it showing the previous close wrong and it looks like a lose but is showing positive

weatherweenie
10-18-2006, 10:53 AM
Interesting, after the good news the market didn't take off. S is flat to slightly down. Makes it look as though it is tired.

Show-me
10-18-2006, 11:07 AM
It probably is a little. The market has to breath in and out to climb. OMG I'm sounding like Birchtree.


Interesting, after the good news the market didn't take off. S is flat to slightly down. Makes it look as though it is tired.

FundSurfer
10-18-2006, 11:33 AM
OMG I'm sounding like Birchtree.

UT Roo... You need to detox...

Show-me
10-18-2006, 11:59 AM
(sigh) ya.:laugh: :nuts:


UT Roo... You need to detox...

Robo5555
10-18-2006, 06:04 PM
Pretty even today....flat

Robo5555
10-19-2006, 07:23 PM
Looks like about 7 pennies on this today....

Robo5555
10-26-2006, 05:02 PM
WOW!!!!! This fund is up about twenty cents today.....and thats after a 10 cent hike yesterday!!

Fivetears
10-26-2006, 06:36 PM
I wonder where all the money is coming from that's driving this Brinks Truck right on down the freeway? Not even an an off-ramp in sight. I haven't a clue.

FUTURESTRADER
10-26-2006, 07:29 PM
I wonder where all the money is coming from that's driving this Brinks Truck right on down the freeway? Not even an an off-ramp in sight. I haven't a clue.

maybe from Bush signing the border wall bill??

Fivetears
10-26-2006, 07:41 PM
Tied the previous posted high of 8 May 2006; $18.27
WOW!!!!! This fund is up about twenty cents today.....and thats after a 10 cent hike yesterday!!

weatherweenie
10-26-2006, 07:55 PM
I wonder where all the money is coming from that's driving this Brinks Truck right on down the freeway? Not even an an off-ramp in sight. I haven't a clue.

Was really hoping it wouldn't have ramped up as much today, as I went from the sidelines to 50% S fund at the COB today/Thursday. Hope I don't jinx y'all. ;)

Fivetears
10-26-2006, 08:00 PM
I locked the binders all the way to the G-Fund for Friday from the I Fund. This S Fund is on FIRE. Someone's bound to throw some water on it pretty soon.

Gilligan
10-26-2006, 08:47 PM
I wonder where all the money is coming from that's driving this Brinks Truck right on down the freeway? Not even an an off-ramp in sight. I haven't a clue.

Fivetears,
You didnít take a 50 cal from the base and mount it in the back of the EC to chase armored cars again did you?

Gilligan
10-26-2006, 08:48 PM
I locked the binders all the way to the G-Fund for Friday from the I Fund. This S Fund is on FIRE. Someone's bound to throw some water on it pretty soon.

It just tied with the previous high set on May the 8th of $18.27

ayla
10-26-2006, 11:44 PM
Just noticed that the 50 Day Siimple Moving Average (SMA) for the S-Fund crossed over and above the 39 week SMA on Oct 24th (Tuesday). I think that's a major event as far as "technical analysis" goes.

Oldcoin
10-27-2006, 01:48 AM
Just noticed that the 50 Day Siimple Moving Average (SMA) for the S-Fund crossed over and above the 39 week SMA on Oct 24th (Tuesday). I think that's a major event as far as "technical analysis" goes.

You're going to haf ta fill me in on this one, what is the event?

Show-me
10-27-2006, 05:23 AM
When two different Moving Averages cross, this event can be considered a bullish or bearish crossover. I use 50 and 200 Simple Moving Average and yes they did have a bullish crossover on the 23rd of October. Here is a chart (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$EMW&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p99856266636). The event is the crossover and the fact that it is a bullish crossover.
:D


You're going to haf ta fill me in on this one, what is the event?

VirginiaBob
10-27-2006, 07:37 AM
But keep in mind, don't rely on the MACD exclusively. If you are in a long term bull market, it's best to stay in stocks no matter what the MACD says. Similarly if you are in a long term bear market, it's best to stay on the sidelines. Using historical TSP fund data, if you were to sell everytime the MACD had a bearish crossover and bought everytime the MACD had a bullish crossover, you would have done worse than buy and hold, keeping in mind the IFT delay.

Oldcoin
10-27-2006, 09:12 AM
Thanks :D

ayla
10-27-2006, 09:14 AM
But keep in mind, don't rely on the MACD exclusively.

VirginiaBob --
Not talking about the MACD. The MACD has remained postive and above the crossover line for some time for the S fund. I was referring to the simple moving average lines for 50 day and 39 week. Different indicators and I think a little more substantial than just relying on the MACD which I agree is not a very reliable indicator if that is all you are looking at.

Question now is whether the S-Fund can sustain the 50 day moving average above the 39 week.

weatherweenie
10-27-2006, 09:14 AM
But keep in mind, don't rely on the MACD exclusively. If you are in a long term bull market, it's best to stay in stocks no matter what the MACD says. Similarly if you are in a long term bear market, it's best to stay on the sidelines. Using historical TSP fund data, if you were to sell everytime the MACD had a bearish crossover and bought everytime the MACD had a bullish crossover, you would have done worse than buy and hold, keeping in mind the IFT delay.

I agree you shouldn't look at just one variable, but Moving Average was being talked about, not MACD, for what it's worth.

Fivetears
10-27-2006, 09:36 AM
Yepper Little Buddy. I caught that one.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=61036&postcount=84
It just tied with the previous high set on May the 8th of $18.27

Fivetears
10-27-2006, 09:37 AM
Naugh. :D But I can mount a skeet thrower. :nuts:
Fivetears,
You didnít take a 50 cal from the base and mount it in the back of the EC to chase armored cars again did you?

VirginiaBob
10-27-2006, 10:15 AM
I agree you shouldn't look at just one variable, but Moving Average was being talked about, not MACD, for what it's worth.

TO ALL: A MACD crossover is the same thing as two simple moving average crossingovers.

weatherweenie
10-27-2006, 10:20 AM
TO ALL: A MACD crossover is the same thing as two simple moving average crossingovers.

That's the beauty of this site, the sharing of knowledge!

Thanks VirginiaBob!!! ;)

ayla
10-27-2006, 10:41 AM
TO ALL: A MACD crossover is the same thing as two simple moving average crossingovers.

Good point but I think my main point is that the 39 week crossover is not your standard old everyday SMA crossover.

Oldcoin
10-27-2006, 10:59 AM
Good point but I think my main point is that the 39 week crossover is not your standard old everyday SMA crossover.

Okay, so is this a super bullish put every cent into the C Fund indicator?

Birchtree
10-27-2006, 11:26 AM
Man, I already have. Waiting for 1528 and beyond for SPX.

Oldcoin
10-27-2006, 11:53 AM
Man, I already have. Waiting for 1528 and beyond for SPX.

LOL :D B.T. youíre tenacity and persistence are really paying big. Of course, the deals not done until you sell.

Birchtree
10-27-2006, 12:31 PM
To me the word sell is synonymous with left and they are currently both dirty words. I will sell a beauty next week to get cash to DCA some of my other stock holdings. It seems I never have enough money to be liberal. Now once the Dow pops 17,000 it may be different.

The_Technician
10-27-2006, 01:50 PM
To me the word sell is synonymous with left and they are currently both dirty words. I will sell a beauty next week to get cash to DCA some of my other stock holdings. It seems I never have enough money to be liberal. Now once the Dow pops 17,000 it may be different.

I can't wait to see what the C and S end up tonight.....they both could've been good buys today.....

Birchtree
10-27-2006, 02:12 PM
Today actually happens to be my allocation day for DCA - I would like to get one more buy under $15.00 but those days may be heading into the sunset. I only nailed 12 buys in the $14.00 range. I hope she doesn't blow through the $15.00 range too fast. But one can't stand in the way of progress.

weatherweenie
10-27-2006, 02:38 PM
S -0.71% at 2:38pm ET

ayla
10-27-2006, 03:19 PM
Okay, so is this a super bullish put every cent into the C Fund indicator?

(Note you meant "s fund" and not "c fund", right?

Caveat: I'm a newbie at this but have heard and read in several places about the 39 week moving average. Some use it as a long term trend indicator. At this point with the S-Fund, it has been such a recent cross-over that it may be a bit premature but still important to watch IMHO.

This is the kind of cross-over where some "big guys" who have software on auto-pilot might wake up and buy. Do a google search on "39 week" "investing" and you should come up with various insights and lots of hits.

I welcome corrections or additions to my comments. Always willing to learn.

weatherweenie
10-27-2006, 03:49 PM
Daaaaaaaaagnabit!

I was afraid this was gonna happen, where I put my IFT in to the S fund yesterday when it was flat, only to watch it take off through the rest of Thursday. Then it sells off today. :(

Birchtree
10-27-2006, 03:59 PM
Do you need a shoulder - or are you strong enough. Count up your dollars it probably costs you more than that to eat out. Can you see past December or are you only looking at the end of next week? Be right and sit tight. Snort.

weatherweenie
10-27-2006, 04:04 PM
Just looking for some cheese to go with my whine.

Fivetears
10-27-2006, 05:14 PM
:D CHEEEEEEEESE!
sorry
Just looking for some cheese to go with my whine.

mailmanusa
10-29-2006, 06:41 AM
The S dropped 19 cents on fri. If it drops some more by midday mon I was thinking it might be a good chance to buy in before noon mon. What do you think?

Show-me
10-29-2006, 07:42 AM
The S dropped 19 cents on fri. If it drops some more by midday mon I was thinking it might be a good chance to buy in before noon mon. What do you think?

I'm wish'n I bought more on Friday too.:( I plan to move to a 50/50 S/I split on Monday depending on what I see in the markets.:D

The_Technician
10-30-2006, 08:46 AM
I'm wish'n I bought more on Friday too.:( I plan to move to a 50/50 S/I split on Monday depending on what I see in the markets.:D

S fund looks prime....it just depends on how much risk you are willing to deal with...

Robo5555
11-06-2006, 10:52 AM
Looks like this is going to rock today!!!!

ChemEng
11-08-2006, 02:16 PM
Looks like the market is really liking Rumsfeld stepping down...

Birchtree
11-08-2006, 02:25 PM
It may mean more troops to kick ass the correct way - finally get the damn job done.

mlk_man
11-08-2006, 02:31 PM
It may mean more troops to kick ass the correct way - finally get the damn job done.


Is it true that if a married Arab man sees another woman naked, he's got to kill himself?

ChemEng
11-08-2006, 02:36 PM
It may mean more troops to kick ass the correct way - finally get the damn job done.

Agreed. Hopefully they dont loose any of their initiative during the transition...

In other news, looks like I choose a bad day to get back in it seems.

Birchtree
11-08-2006, 02:39 PM
I'll be glad to share with any Shia or Sunni one of my favorite Honey Wilder and Kay Parker films.

Robo5555
11-08-2006, 04:44 PM
Another good day for the S fund!!!

fedgolfer
11-09-2006, 10:34 AM
I tried to attach a pdf of my short term s-fund chart which shows a handle forming the last 10 trading days... the cup forming from May through Oct...if today is down for the S it will be a pretty symetrical handle and probably a good buying op for a possible breakout. Conversely, indicators are overbought... slow & fast stochs are above 80%; also on top of price channel... listen to the indicators or the chart trend?! It's been my experience that the indicators are always overbought in this juncture in a cup and handle.

i'm leaning towards not trying to perfectly time it and allocate funds across C/S/I... probably favoring the C&S over I agree/disagree?

fedgolfer
11-09-2006, 10:40 AM
... plus no hocus pocus reports due out tomorrow...
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/MarketAnalysis/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

today good buying op in general?

Birchtree
11-09-2006, 10:50 AM
Today is a good buying opportunity and tomorrow will also be a good buying opportunity. Next month will also be a good buying opportunity. If you go light on the I fund you will become an aberrant - profit will help you atone.

weatherweenie
11-09-2006, 11:32 PM
Is it the hour, or does anyone else see a double top on the daily chart for ^dwcpf?

ayla
11-10-2006, 01:17 AM
Is it the hour, or does anyone else see a double top on the daily chart for ^dwcpf?

Couldn't it also be the formation of a cup and handle (someone else mentioned this, can't remember who)? Too early to tell, maybe?

airlift
11-10-2006, 06:03 AM
I believe that both of you are correct. It could be either a double top or the formation of a cup and handle. I don't have the answer, but this seems to be a good example of why technical analysis (TA) is both an art and a science. You have to consider other factors with TA, which include fundamental analysis, seasonality, overbought/oversold market conditions, and a host of issues that make trading such an interesting endeavor. (I mean, interesting for us, but boring or voodoo for people who don't have a passion to learn this activity).

fedgolfer
11-10-2006, 11:57 AM
i think stablizing rates, getting Dems in house and senate could be good for small/midcaps in the macro picture... i'm leaning towards cup and handle... of course the handle can take many forms and play many tricks on us grasshoppers.

fedgolfer
11-14-2006, 02:49 PM
... if the afternoon holds, it could be confirmation on the cup & handle's breakout.

vectorman
11-15-2006, 07:47 PM
Over the past decade, small-caps have tended to perform well during the last two months of the year. I'm holding my OTCFX fund until Spring and will then continue to peel off shares for redistribution. There are still too many hedge funds and small speculators that are currently short - this is positive from a contrarian perspective. Buy now pay later.

Posted by Birchtree- 10/2/06

Great call Birch, you are the Man...Snort

vectorman
11-25-2006, 09:23 AM
And it should continue to do great.

Take a look at the numbers of advance issues vs. declines, and in up volume vs. down volume, especialy on NASDAQ:

http://finance.yahoo.com/advances

This tells me (gut feeling) that the rally is still in full motion upwards.

I do not expect a change in the trend until the the advances and declines merge, and the "new highs" and "new lows" meet. At this rate, I THINK we still have much more upside potential in the "S", and that is going to be better in my crystal ball than the other options.


Good call...

http://www.tspmoney.com/prev/index3.html

LA_Guy
11-29-2006, 11:03 AM
It's a beautiful day to be in the S fund. Don't have to worry about the Barclay's brother tweaking around with the share price. :)

Birchtree
11-29-2006, 01:27 PM
Profits at S&P 500 companies will grow about 10% in the fourth quarter. That would be modest compared with about 20% growth in the third quarter but enough to extend a record streak of double-digit growth to 18 quarters.

This year's simultaneous rallies in both big-cap and small cap indexes suggest that much of the money being used to buy stocks lately is cash that had been sitting on the sidelines, rather than money rotating from investment in one sector to another. With all the new money coming into the market, there's room for chunks of it to go to different strategies at once. People are willing to take these risky gambles in small-cap stocks. But they're also looking for safer, dividend-paying large caps. Keep an eye on falling housing prices. Financial companies, including many regional banks, which make up a third of the indexes may see big declines in fourth quarter profits. Money will eventual rotate out of small caps IMHO.

vectorman
12-01-2006, 09:12 AM
:D

The one thing I've learned from watching those talking heads on CNBC is that they tell you what is going on after the fact. They are the ones who have bought international stock back in the middle of June. Now that its up big they want the amateur investor to run to internationals and push then alittle higher while at the same time the big boys are selling and buying small caps. In about two months you'll hear how great small caps are and that is the place to be, after the fact.;)

I posted this 8/18/06, well its been alittle more than two months, but after this nice climb in small caps, I'm now hearing the talking heads say buy small caps because December is a good month to be in small caps. Yesterday I had a co-worker who usually doesn't follow the market tell me to go 100% S fund. I also notice you don't hear the correction word as much as before. Now its just, " we are looking for a 3-4% pullback, and then higher." MMMMMMMM .

fedgolfer
12-01-2006, 11:21 AM
... if S closes in the 18.55 range (I think dwcp already hit the support line on the intraday charts when it was around -.80'ish), today or monday will prove good support buys on a support line that gave good buys on 11/2 and 10/3. ^VIX is also very close to screming "buy now!"

Robo5555
12-04-2006, 04:57 PM
Nice day for the S fund!!!!

mayday
12-04-2006, 06:44 PM
Nice day for the S fund!!!!

No kidden Milk is probably grinnen from ear to ear.

mlk_man
12-04-2006, 11:02 PM
No kidden Milk is probably grinnen from ear to ear.

Just got lucky. ;)

dell
12-05-2006, 07:16 AM
Moving into a seasonally good if not exceptional period for the S Fund re January effect.

Luck to All.

Dell

Show-me
12-05-2006, 07:22 AM
Hey Dell,

I just turned the page in my STA and.........small cap, January effect. Move over, I think I will join ya in a bit.

fedgolfer
12-05-2006, 10:06 AM
... if the s fund closes anywhere near 19.01 or +.36% it's topped out too in the short term. Anything north of that establishes a new trend. The trend lines are so steep though, that just one day of small movement extends that resistance line upward, probably somewhere 19.10 for tomorrow. I wish I had the cahones of pointman, will probably get defensive with the g-penny.

Birchtree
12-05-2006, 10:09 AM
You'll be missed, but don't feel sad two out of three ain't bad.

fedgolfer
12-05-2006, 10:15 AM
... the VIX has me a little befuddled, thought it would be red this AM. A bull I may be.

ChemEng
12-05-2006, 10:31 AM
... if the s fund closes anywhere near 19.01 or +.36% it's topped out too in the short term. Anything north of that establishes a new trend. The trend lines are so steep though, that just one day of small movement extends that resistance line upward, probably somewhere 19.10 for tomorrow. I wish I had the cahones of pointman, will probably get defensive with the g-penny.

I agree with your reasoning. Today Im leaning strongly towards 100%G from 100%S.

fedgolfer
12-05-2006, 10:59 AM
I agree with your reasoning. Today Im leaning strongly towards 100%G from 100%S.

Plus, with not much on the econ calendar for tomorrow, technicals could lead the way.

ChemEng
12-06-2006, 09:55 AM
Plus, with not much on the econ calendar for tomorrow, technicals could lead the way.

Bingo... Nice call. The question now is when to jump back on. Its still well above its 20 SMA by ~1%. Well see. I think today will be another day to sit in G for me.

fedgolfer
12-06-2006, 11:43 AM
... who knows?! This bull has strength. Looking to buy at around $15.37 for the Cfund and 18.70'ish ( 20 DMA) for the S. The strength of the I is impressive. But that would be too easy... the fund managers could throw it off the chart. We could easily get left in the dust.

fedgolfer
12-06-2006, 11:48 AM
... is it Fab's new system that sending people to S? I would love for his tracker to work wonders. It may have a few days left. last time the S tested the upper trend line it played around there for 5 days, the middle three being profitable.

ayla
12-19-2006, 12:40 AM
S fund price just dropped below its 20 day SMA. Also, there was a very large drop in the %k fast stochastic from over 90 down to 25. Means S fund is transitioning to a serious oversold position I think..

This is a new learning curve for me but from what I can tell, these are signs that things might start popping for the S fund soon. If we use history as the guide, it could take another drop in the stochastic before things start happening (but not necessarily, of course).

Starting maybe a couple days after these drops below the 20 day SMA and with the stochastic, looks like a good chance of a nice little run starting maybe on Weds or Thurs. Since this corresponds to the Santa rally, that is an extra reinforcement that this might happen.

Hopefully the VIX will behave during the run (if there is one). If VIX starts rising sharply, this could put a damper on things.

Spaf
12-19-2006, 12:50 AM
The S-fund is taking a licking, but it could come up ticking. December generally starts it's better months.......here's hoping......;)

ayla
12-19-2006, 09:49 AM
Didn't notice it last night but the S fund is showing a huge increase in its RSI (14 day) - a 35% increase from 56 to 76. I don't show an increase in RSI for the S fund that is this big for one day even if I look back thru data starting from June 2005.

In other words, even the run-up and run-down in May/June of 2006 didn't cause this high of an increase (though there were a few high values then). Not sure what this means.

If one considered the big drop in yesterday's S fund price, could this be a healthy sign of "positive divergence" or not so healthy?

draggen3
12-20-2006, 09:29 AM
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui


The fast stochastic is not all the way down , but i do thinka little pop up is in order. Because of xmas!!
I do believe we will see a major pull back very soon , Good Luck To All!!

ayla
12-20-2006, 11:05 AM
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui


The fast stochastic is not all the way down , but i do thinka little pop up is in order. Because of xmas!!
I do believe we will see a major pull back very soon , Good Luck To All!!

Yes, I see that the fast stochastic hasn't gone down to zero, According to my own spreadsheet, it went from 25 to 20 as of prices last night. Looking at recent historical activity for the S %k fast stochastic, I agree that it seems traditional for it to drop down to zero before any kind of breakout (accompanied by a corresponding fast rise of this stochastic).

But because of the Santa rally (maybe), that drop to zero may be circumvented. Seems like the Santa Rally (or something) has affected other indicators such as the VIX peak that was forming. Looks like the VIX has fizzled (for now) which is a good thing for the S.

Birchtree
12-20-2006, 07:03 PM
Valuation levels continue to keep us cautious on small caps...

http://www.strategasrp.com/pdf/isr061218.pdf

ayla
12-20-2006, 09:34 PM
If (big IF) technical analysis (using my spreadsheet which doesn't use intraday values) tells us anything here, the stochastics for the S fund have set up nicely for a little bump tomorrow with followup bumps on subsequent days. I say that because the last time these particular indicators were set up like this (approximately) was Oct 3rd.

What I'm looking at is

1. the %k fast stochastic noted day before yesterday drop of over 30, (similar to Oct 2nd)
2. also the s fund is still below its 20 day SMA (as it was yesterday and day before) and it was on Oct 2nd and 3rd
3. the RSI is in the right range (dropped from 54 to 50 tonight - still showing relative oversold position) similar to October 2nd and 3rd when it dropped from 55 to 44.
4. healthy drop in the %d slow stochastic shown in tonights data in addition to the fact that it has made a transition from above 80 to below 80 (significant point) in the past few days similar to what happened in the transition to below 80 from Oct 2nd to Oct 3rd.

All of these indicators were generally in the same position last on Oct 3rd which was followed by a nice little bump on Oct 4th and subsequent days. It could be sort of a signature. I'm hoping.

I haven't had much luck with MACD values being useful but MACD trend (as I understand it) are about the same for then and now.

There are of course many other indicators - I haven't learned yet - that's not to say they agree with this.

And there WAS what seems to me a fairly major difference with the VIX indicator. From Oct 2nd to the 3rd, there was a 2% drop in the VIX and this week from Oct 19 to Oct 20th, there was a 2% rise (closing price, that is). Could make a big difference.

Crossing my fingers --
50%i and 50%s -

Propstrike
12-20-2006, 11:50 PM
Good analysis. Hope it pays out for you.

James48843
12-27-2006, 12:14 PM
Early indications- "S" fund up .12 cents as of noon

Robo5555
12-27-2006, 05:51 PM
Good day for the S fund!!!

fedgolfer
12-28-2006, 09:42 AM
yesterday, 12-27, the DWCP closed up .88% and the S got bumped up a bit more, .96%. I'm a believer in Santa.

RIDDICK
12-29-2006, 03:28 AM
Does it make sense to go strong with the S Fund for next Jan. 2 & 3 because the share price is down (to close to 12/14 price) and has a good chance to come up or just too risky to tell? C and F funds seems due for an increase as well if one follows the same strategy. The first two days of 2006 were very good so ...

:worried: I'm new to posting so please be gentle.

Robo5555
12-29-2006, 10:00 AM
I would....don't forget the I fund. Went up 79 cents from Dec 30 2005 to Jan 4 2006.

fedgolfer
12-29-2006, 11:13 AM
Tech indicators slow/fast stoch, PSAR and price channel overlays leaving decent room for January effect in the small/mid caps. Anyone have any thoughts on the pros and cons of seasonality/Jan effect extending this bull run just a little longer?

James48843
01-05-2007, 02:53 PM
If the "S" fund drops by a full percent today, that will be substantial, as it breaks a point and figure chart that has been on the upswing for a long time, and signals a reversal for the first time since August.

See http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$EMW,P

I'm thinking much more downside ahead if this stays down this far at the close today.

tsptalk
01-05-2007, 04:40 PM
Looks like we'll get that P&F sell - or did the late little bounce keep it in the X's?

Thanks.

airlift
01-06-2007, 10:57 AM
James,
I have to admit to being lazy and not having taken the time to study P&F charts at stockcharts.com, Perhaps you can help me to gain a better understanding of how they work? For instance, you indicated that if the "S" fund drops by a full pecent today (yesterday), that would be substantial, as it breaks a point and figure chart that has been on an upswing for a long time, and signals a reversal for the first time since August. My confusion has to do with looking at the EMW closing price at 621.56 (-1.11%). But when I look at the P&F chart you posted, I see EMW at 621.56 (in red) but I don't understand how to interpret the sell signal or what the sell signal is. Is the color red in itself a sell signal provided by stocharts. Thanks in advance.:)


If the "S" fund drops by a full percent today, that will be substantial, as it breaks a point and figure chart that has been on the upswing for a long time, and signals a reversal for the first time since August.

See http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$EMW,P

I'm thinking much more downside ahead if this stays down this far at the close today.

James48843
01-06-2007, 08:16 PM
James,
My confusion has to do with looking at the EMW closing price at 621.56 (-1.11%). But when I look at the P&F chart you posted, I see EMW at 621.56 (in red) but I don't understand how to interpret the sell signal or what the sell signal is. Is the color red in itself a sell signal provided by stocharts. Thanks in advance.:)

I'm not exaclty sure myself- having just started studying the point and figure charts myself over the last couple months.

But what I understand it is that once the stock price falls three full units below the top X on the chart, it should kick back into the "O" column, and head down. That was achieved yesteday, although it may be three full units plus the top unit itself, or four units below the top. The last couple of reversals it showed a third of the way to the top, plus three units. This time it may be a little different, because of the extreme distance it climbed from August to now (18 units). Remember, time is not a unit counted in P&F charts, only direction and height.

If I understand correctly what should show up, then the reverse "O" will appear if the "S" fund closes below 620 or so, and it will show up with four "O"s when it appears.

That would be the signal that there is much more downside ahead, as it will not reverse again until it moves downward half the distance, or upward above the current peak. If it moves downward, then it's going to be a long way down. If, on the other hand, the next movement is upward, then just the four "O"s will be all that is left.

If it DOES reverse and start showing "O's, then the floor for a reverse of the reversal (to get back to an "X",) would be at or below either the 580 or 590 level, I'm not sure exactly how it works out. I do know that it will represent a substaintial pullback, and will be a good buy signal at the other end when it shifts back to the "X" mode.

Unfortunately, I was out of the office Friday morning, and I find myself 50% in "S:" and 50% in "I" at the moment.

Win a few, loose a few. It's all in the long race, not the daily heats.

Good thing I have 12 to 14 years till retirement.

airlift
01-07-2007, 06:44 AM
I think this is an excellent explanation which for me is no doubt the first time that someone explains P&F in understandable terms. Thank you. I will appreciate your future posting of this TA indicator, because you appear to have a good grasp of it, and this will most likely be of help also to other members.


I'm not exaclty sure myself- having just started studying the point and figure charts myself over the last couple months.

But what I understand it is that once the stock price falls three full units below the top X on the chart, it should kick back into the "O" column, and head down. That was achieved yesteday, although it may be three full units plus the top unit itself, or four units below the top. The last couple of reversals it showed a third of the way to the top, plus three units. This time it may be a little different, because of the extreme distance it climbed from August to now (18 units). Remember, time is not a unit counted in P&F charts, only direction and height.

If I understand correctly what should show up, then the reverse "O" will appear if the "S" fund closes below 620 or so, and it will show up with four "O"s when it appears.

That would be the signal that there is much more downside ahead, as it will not reverse again until it moves downward half the distance, or upward above the current peak. If it moves downward, then it's going to be a long way down. If, on the other hand, the next movement is upward, then just the four "O"s will be all that is left.

If it DOES reverse and start showing "O's, then the floor for a reverse of the reversal (to get back to an "X",) would be at or below either the 580 or 590 level, I'm not sure exactly how it works out. I do know that it will represent a substaintial pullback, and will be a good buy signal at the other end when it shifts back to the "X" mode.

Unfortunately, I was out of the office Friday morning, and I find myself 50% in "S:" and 50% in "I" at the moment.

Win a few, loose a few. It's all in the long race, not the daily heats.

Good thing I have 12 to 14 years till retirement.

nnuut
01-08-2007, 10:28 AM
Man, the "S" fund is really stinkin' -1.58% at last look. Something doesn't look right with this number?:confused:

FUTURESTRADER
01-08-2007, 10:31 AM
Man, the "S" fund is really stinkin' -1.58% at last look. Something doesn't look right with this number?:confused:

right nnuut...the percent decline is from thursday's close

James48843
01-08-2007, 01:07 PM
Looks like we'll get that P&F sell - or did the late little bounce keep it in the X's?

Thanks.


We got the "O" move posted this morning.

See
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$EMW,P

The "O" is significant.

And I'm screwed again- I was in a meeting, and then had a noon deadline on a work item, and was not able to bial out of "S" before the noon deadline.

if the point and figure charts work as advertised, then all stocks look like they are about to head down big time.

Birchtree
01-08-2007, 01:11 PM
We are in the process of putting in an energy bottom, which means when it's over that sector will power the small caps to more new all-time highs, at least through the 1st half of this year. No bear yet.

fabijo
01-11-2007, 01:42 PM
And I'm screwed again- I was in a meeting, and then had a noon deadline on a work item, and was not able to bial out of "S" before the noon deadline.

It's risky business trying to make decisions before noon, because you never know what will happen. It's sometimes easier to make your decision the night prior, so that you don't get caught up in the fluff of each day.

nnuut
01-11-2007, 04:29 PM
How about that "F" fund, a killer isn't it?

tsptalk
01-11-2007, 08:06 PM
We got the "O" move posted this morning.

See
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$EMW,P

The "O" is significant.
Back to X's but no buy signal yet.

James48843
01-12-2007, 12:18 AM
Back to "X's", yes.

Three "X"s.

There are lots of examples of three "X"s then going to "O"s as the next move. But will this be like that, or is this just a new begining of more "X"s?

Dang- and here i am sitting mostly in "F" today. Just 10% each in I, C, and S.

I was on the road the last two days and didn't get a chance to look at the markets- but if tomorrow shows strength, I may very well move back to the "S". The sentiment survey is also looking like higher ahead to me. (contrarian).

We'll see what the morning brings.

Win a few, lose a few. 11-13 years till retirement. Still time to make it up.

mayday
01-13-2007, 02:19 AM
Looks like the R2K is bouncing around in a channel between 775 and 798 It closed at 794.26 kind of high in the channel. Risky for Tuesday.

Birchtree
01-13-2007, 05:59 PM
If the GDP runs anywhere above trend of 3% - the small caps will do wonders. Get ready for a throw over or solid penetration of the overhead resistance you mentioned. No one can hold this market back - it's hot across the spectrum and going to get hotter. Pension fund managers are bulging with cash they have to put to work - and they can run over me in the process. I'm staying in front of the train, again.

airlift
01-13-2007, 06:23 PM
When are the GDP numbers coming out? or, can we extrapolate the possible GDP numbers from the econ. numbers that will be coming out next week?


If the GDP runs anywhere above trend of 3% - the small caps will do wonders. Get ready for a throw over or solid penetration of the overhead resistance you mentioned. No one can hold this market back - it's hot across the spectrum and going to get hotter. Pension fund managers are bulging with cash they have to put to work - and they can run over me in the process. I'm staying in front of the train, again.

mayday
01-13-2007, 11:04 PM
When are the GDP numbers coming out? or, can we extrapolate the possible GDP numbers from the econ. numbers that will be coming out next week?
Sponsor Looks like the calendar says Jan.31st at 8.30am Looks like GDP is sitting at 3 %

airlift
01-13-2007, 11:13 PM
Thank you Mayday!:)


Sponsor Looks like the calendar says Jan.31st at 8.30am Looks like GDP is sitting at 3 %

Robo5555
01-17-2007, 08:21 PM
Seems like the market is starting to turn a lil bearish. Great long run with no real correction.
Thats what the heard is hearing....which might mean that is time to stay with stocks....and that the market is going to shoot straight up pass several resistance levels.

nnuut
01-17-2007, 09:17 PM
Cramer said "it's time to sell Tech stocks, NOW" BOOYA!:o

James48843
01-19-2007, 10:06 AM
We got the "O" move posted this morning.

See
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$EMW,P

The "O" is significant.




Looks like that shift over to "O"s was indeed significant- and shows very true to form. We got back the three "X"s, and now the drop may very well turn to "O"s again.

This repeats the pattern seen several times over the last couple years.

And what it means, if it holds up true to form, is that the "S" fund will be down in the weeks ahead.

I think I will bail out of my 50% "S" shares today, and shifting back into all "I" - as "I" is still looking strong.

Birchtree
01-26-2007, 07:50 PM
I'm frankly surprised, but not terribly surprised that the small caps showed as much relative performance this week compared to the other asset classes. Perhaps they will continue to lead to the upside but 7 years of outperformance is stretching ones' good fortune. l'll watch a while longer, but I did like the show of strength, very healthy.

mayday
01-30-2007, 06:29 AM
S fund looks a little high in the channel today.

James48843
02-01-2007, 11:13 AM
Nice place to take some profits.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$EMW,P

Point chart says we're up six units- that's up nicely.

The pause that refreshes must be just around the corner.

Show-me
02-02-2007, 08:10 AM
S fund has had a excellent five day run. One more day is possible looking back at the chart, but not very likely. Jobs report will be the catalyst today and I would think some profit taking would be order. If not this afternoon then Monday. Then again........................:nuts:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$EMW&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p55694647946

fedgolfer
02-02-2007, 09:10 AM
... yup, a very small bit of room in the VIX for another potential up day. Risky to put new money at work, I should have stayed 50/50 when trying to preserve capital. Buying the dips will probably beat the s&p like in the fall winter... that's kinda obvious. hopefully the channels in the indices won't be on such an extreme angle going forward. Not too fast, not too slow and we'll all make money for a longer period of time rather than if the market just took off.

Show-me
02-02-2007, 08:22 PM
Make that six days. WoW!!!

RIDDICK
02-08-2007, 03:14 PM
...please confirm....

....yes, we have you now... roger that Houston.... we have green, I repeat we have green.

James48843
02-12-2007, 12:14 PM
If the point chart is correct on "S", then it looks like we'll get an "O" reversal today.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$EMW,P

Sell signal.

weatherweenie
02-13-2007, 04:08 PM
Looks like the S fund recouped the losses from Monday, and then some today.

fedgolfer
02-16-2007, 11:52 AM
if S closes on the 10 day MA, could be a short term buying op. Anyone gonna play it today for Tuesaday?

SkiUtah
02-16-2007, 05:59 PM
I'm in for 33%.

Birchtree
02-17-2007, 03:37 PM
How's the temperature in by 33%.

James48843
02-20-2007, 11:33 AM
More strength in the "S" fund.

Wow.

Round and round she goes. When she stops- nobody knows.

mailmanusa
02-22-2007, 06:22 AM
Yeah the S is really kickin butt. Kickin my butt too. Its the only individual fund beating my trading performance so far this year. Bring on a Friday profit taking sell off so I can feel good about getting back in.;)

James48843
03-02-2007, 03:19 PM
If the point chart is correct on "S", then it looks like we'll get an "O" reversal today.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$EMW,P

Sell signal.

Looks like we are very, very close to getting the buy signal back here on the point chart.

We're about 625 right now. If that holds, then it equals the bottom of the point chart notes, and it looks good for a leveling out and a track back up again. But if it contines doward, then we've still got issues here.

I'm going to see what happens on Monday before deciding whether to move back in. The point chart here looks good, let's see if it holds.

James48843
03-02-2007, 04:00 PM
Ooohh. Selloff resumes right at the end of the day.

More downside ahead.

James48843
03-05-2007, 03:23 PM
More downside ahead. Broken downward through the 620, now at 617.

Looks like 600 and change is next resistance point on the downside.

oreo
03-05-2007, 05:21 PM
Maybe this was a sign:

All-Time High
666.88On February 22, 2007

GGal
03-05-2007, 05:56 PM
Maybe this was a sign:

All-Time High
666.88On February 22, 2007

Well there you go!

GA

Rod
03-06-2007, 03:10 PM
(S) Funders will be making out HUGE today!:cool:

James48843
03-28-2007, 08:46 PM
Back to the P&F chart-

It's saying we're not quite done yet, perhaps one more good down day would do it. It' got to close below 640 in order to get the next "O" posted.

If it doesn't do that tomorrow, then we are going to get a move upward instead, and then several upwards again, I would bet.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$EMW,P

Bottom line- if it is below 640 before noon tomorrow- I'm staying on the sidelines and waiting. If 640 holds, and we see a reversal tomorrow, I'm going to jump back in.

James48843
04-04-2007, 11:19 AM
"S" fund in coming back nicely this morning. Looks like it will end up positive for the day.

If so, then we may end up with a new high- it hit $20.00 a share on Feb 26th, just before the dip.

And we are not far off that magic $20 number now....just a couple more nice days up and we are there.

vectorman
04-04-2007, 12:00 PM
"S" fund in coming back nicely this morning. Looks like it will end up positive for the day.

If so, then we may end up with a new high- it hit $20.00 a share on Feb 26th, just before the dip.

And we are not far off that magic $20 number now....just a couple more nice days up and we are there.

All eyes are on that NASDAQ gap, looking for it to get filled. If it does that will help small caps. Many over seas markets are above or almost at their Feb pre- sell off number. So is it in the cards for the US to return to its number shorty? Last May it took the NASDAQ almost 5 months before it filled that gap. It appears to be retail investors making this latest push up. Its very possilbe we will see a retest or exceed market highs before any significant sell off. Still too many people on the sidelines scratching their head yelling "fall...fall...fall...this isn't possilbe doesn't everyone see we are due for a larger correction." lol

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=NASDAQ

robo
04-11-2007, 11:37 PM
Short Sellers Target Small-Company Shares as U.S. Growth Slows

By Michael Patterson

April 12 (Bloomberg) -- Short sellers are increasingly betting against shares of America's smallest companies, and some of the biggest U.S. investors are equally pessimistic.

Short positions in companies in the Russell 2000 Index, which have a median market value of $669 million, jumped last month to the highest since at least September 2003, according to Citigroup Inc. Short sellers, who bet on stock declines, are targeting so-called small-cap companies after they outperformed the Standard & Poor's 500 Index for the eighth straight year.

Bank of America Capital Management, JPMorgan Private Bank and LPL Financial Services, which manage about $1 trillion, are bearish on smaller companies too. They say large-company stocks are cheap relative to earnings and will outperform small caps this year as the U.S. economy slows. Decelerating growth at home favors bigger companies, which get more of their revenue from abroad, the investors say.

``The greater the growth scare here in the United States, the more pressure on small caps,'' said Joseph Quinlan, who helps oversee $540 billion as Bank of America's chief market strategist in New York. ``You want to be in large-cap stocks.''

The percentage of shares sold short in the Russell 2000, a small-cap benchmark, was more than five times greater than in the S&P 500, consisting of companies with a median value of $13.6 billion, according to Citigroup. Short sellers borrow shares from stockholders and sell them, hoping to repurchase them at a lower price later to return to the holder.

Shorts' Targets

Their biggest targets among small caps as of mid-March included Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co., a mortgage lender, and Take-Two Interactive Software Inc., a video-game maker, according to monthly data from stock exchanges.

The Russell 2000 has outperformed the S&P 500 every year since 1998. Since the current bull market began in October 2002, the small-company index has climbed 147 percent, almost double the S&P 500's 85 percent gain. This year, the Russell 2000 has gained 2.6 percent, while the S&P 500 has advanced 1.5 percent.

Companies in the Russell 2000 sell on average for about 40.1 times earnings for the past year. S&P 500 members are valued at about 17.2 times. The gap between those two price- earnings ratios is the widest since May.

``It's not a surprise to me that some smart guys on the other side may be selling or shorting some of these stocks with the anticipation that they'll come back to a more reasonable price level,'' said Mark Keeley, who helps manage the $4.2 billion Keeley Small Cap Value Fund, which has beaten 98 percent of its peers in the past five years. ``That's not a bad bet.''

Thiel's Bet

About 9.6 percent of the shares available for trading in the Russell 2000 were sold short in March, according to data compiled by Nicholas Gulden, head of U.S. portfolio trading strategies at Citigroup. That compares with a 1.9 percent short interest in members of the S&P 500.

Peter Thiel, chief executive officer of Clarium Capital Management in San Francisco, is among the hedge fund managers who are betting the S&P 500 will outpace the Russell 2000.

``The way to trade equities at this point in the U.S. is short the Russell and go long the S&P,'' said Thiel, who manages about $2.1 billion. ``The S&P 500 is more multinational, and to the extent that we have a slowdown in the U.S. but not globally, it's probably going to do better than the smaller-cap stocks.''

The U.S. economy probably grew at an annual pace of 2 percent last quarter, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists, down from a 2.5 percent rate in the fourth quarter.

Weathering a Slowdown

Government and private reports over the past two weeks showed consumer confidence fell for a second straight month, while manufacturing growth slowed more than forecast.

Jack Caffrey, an equity strategist at JPMorgan Private Bank in New York, says large companies may weather a slowdown better because they tend to sell more goods and services overseas.

Sales in the U.S. accounted for about 84 percent of the revenue reported by companies in the Russell 2000 last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Members of the S&P 500 relied on the U.S. for 73 percent of sales.

Economies elsewhere are growing faster than the U.S. Mexico probably expanded at a 3.7 percent pace in the first quarter, according to economists in a Bloomberg survey. China, the world's fastest-growing major economy, probably grew at a 10.2 percent rate, according to an estimate from the country's central bank.

``Multinationals -- generally the larger companies -- are better positioned to capture that growth,'' said Caffrey.

Growing Employment

Still, the economy may surprise investors with its strength. Hiring in the U.S. last month rose more than forecast, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, indicating slumps in housing and manufacturing may be having limited impact.

And small caps may get a boost from mergers and acquisitions. About $635.9 billion in takeovers involving U.S. companies have been announced this year, 38 percent more than during the same period last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

``The key positive for small-caps right now is all the M&A activity, whether it's from private equity money that needs to be invested or big corporations that have amassed a lot of cash,'' said Dwight Cowden, who manages the $660 million Mellon Small Cap Stock Fund in Pittsburgh. He said three companies in his fund received merger offers in the past four weeks.

The potential for buyouts may already be reflected in the share prices of many small-cap stocks, said Jeff Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial in Boston. At the same time, more large companies may get takeover offers as private equity funds collaborate on deals.

`Overvalued Market'

Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank, bought securities that increase in value if the S&P 100 index of the largest U.S. companies rises more than the Russell 2000. He expects the bet to pay off over the next two years.

``This is an overvalued market that can't sustain itself,'' said Ablin, who oversees $50 billion at Harris in Chicago. ``The only piece of the puzzle we're missing here is a little momentum. All the other pieces are in place for small cap to underperform.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aVLV6bFaOyi8&refer=home

Birchtree
04-17-2007, 12:28 PM
There must be some way to pump up the S fund to close up at least $0.30 on the close - watch for it after 1400 hours.

James48843
05-21-2007, 12:09 PM
"S" fund is rock'en today.

I thought the "C" was going to be the place to be.

Oh well. I have a toe in the water on "S", so it will help boost things. I should re-allocate more into "S" though, because I think we're getting the third wave now...

NyteTracker
05-21-2007, 01:02 PM
....evidence that upside uncertainty for large cap names over the near term has sparked a rotation into smaller, growth-oriented stocks.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/briefing/StockTicker.asp

clester
05-21-2007, 04:08 PM
S fund finally broke out of its range to a new high.

Birchtree
05-21-2007, 07:37 PM
Beware the head fake - they want to pull you in so they can get out at higher pricing.

GUCHI
05-30-2007, 11:56 AM
the S fund chart does not look right ??? it is showing a 0.05 gain , but it looks like more than that on the chart. just wondering ??????

nnuut
05-30-2007, 12:10 PM
Check this one.:D
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$EMW&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p55192775979

GUCHI
05-30-2007, 02:09 PM
thanx nutt

Medic72
05-31-2007, 10:13 AM
AHHHHHHHHH to many lines ! :)

confusion has set in. ha ha

ATCJeff
06-01-2007, 10:27 PM
S fund sure did have a great week! 2.75%:D

Show-me
06-01-2007, 10:30 PM
Five positive days in a row. Phenomenal run!

James48843
06-07-2007, 11:51 AM
Next real solid support level is around 671, at the 50-day moving average mark. We may get there yet today, or maybe tomorrow tomorrow.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$emw

I don't think this level (currently at 679, as of 11:50 am) will hold, and I don't think it will bounce upward from here, but rather will continue downward for another 1% to 2% down before rebounding. If it hits 670 this afternoon, or tomorrow morning, I'm running back in there (for COB friday).

James48843
06-07-2007, 02:11 PM
It just blew through that 671 level, and is now at the 668, where their is some limited resistance.

If it holds here, we are looking much like what last February 26 through 28th big drop. Three down sessions, then a pause, followed by more down sessions ahead when it breaks below the 50 day moving average.

This is what it looks like on the chart- look back at end of February, then look at today's move, and see the similarities:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$EMW&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p69175047198

Not at all unexpceted after last weeks big bullish sentitment survey.

James48843
06-07-2007, 04:04 PM
Closes out the day down -1.90%, at around 667 according to Yahoo, 672 according to stockchart.com. Not sure which, but in either case, it is significant.

That 668=670 bar is right above- on the cusp of the 50 day moving average.

Again, if we repeat February 26-28ths pattern, we will hold flat tomorrow, maybe even three days worth, and then go down another healthy amount.

If we do NOT repeat February, then we have hit the floor today, and it's up ahead.

Seeing as it fell as hard as it did this afternoon, I'm thinking more like we still have more downside ahead. Especially seeing it looks like it's still headed down on the trace at the close.

We'll just have to see what happens.

weatherweenie
06-07-2007, 05:45 PM
In this kind of interest rate environment, high rates, aren't small caps more likely to underperform? The cost of business, borrowing money, increases for smaller companies.


Closes out the day down -1.90%, at around 667 according to Yahoo, 672 according to stockchart.com. Not sure which, but in either case, it is significant.

That 668=670 bar is right above- on the cusp of the 50 day moving average.

Again, if we repeat February 26-28ths pattern, we will hold flat tomorrow, maybe even three days worth, and then go down another healthy amount.

If we do NOT repeat February, then we have hit the floor today, and it's up ahead.

Seeing as it fell as hard as it did this afternoon, I'm thinking more like we still have more downside ahead. Especially seeing it looks like it's still headed down on the trace at the close.

We'll just have to see what happens.

fedgolfer
06-21-2007, 11:55 AM
What's the date stocks get added to the Russell 2k? I think its coming up.

tsptalk
06-21-2007, 12:27 PM
What's the date stocks get added to the Russell 2k? I think its coming up.
Per nasdaq.com and DJ news wire... "The final list will be published on June 22."

Here's the article (http://www.nasdaq.com//aspxcontent/newsstory.aspx?selected=SIL&symbol=SIL&textpath=20070611%5CACQDJON200706112006DOWJONESDJO NLINE000583.htm&cdtime=06%2F11%2F2007+8%3A06PM)

fedgolfer
06-21-2007, 01:40 PM
Per nasdaq.com and DJ news wire... "The final list will be published on June 22."

Here's the article (http://www.nasdaq.com//aspxcontent/newsstory.aspx?selected=SIL&symbol=SIL&textpath=20070611%5CACQDJON200706112006DOWJONESDJO NLINE000583.htm&cdtime=06%2F11%2F2007+8%3A06PM)

sweet... may make for another Good Friday.

fedgolfer
06-21-2007, 04:14 PM
just heard a talking head on bloomberg radio say he was suprised to see the low volume today before a rebalancing day (tomorrow's R2k action)... he reluctantly said today's bounce looked like a dead cat bounce although he doesn't like using that term.

But, why would he expect big volume the day before rebalancing? Wouldn't the more profitable day to buy into small caps be the actual day of rebalancing (tomorrow, not today)?

Birchtree
06-21-2007, 06:58 PM
Tomorrow will be a heavy volume day - they will also be rebalancing the Russell 1000 large cap index along with the R2K.

KingWong
06-25-2007, 12:46 AM
In the S fund 25 June 2007. Hope it will rise to the occasion.

tsptalk
06-25-2007, 01:16 AM
Welcome KW! Good luck!

nnuut
06-25-2007, 09:13 AM
In the S fund 25 June 2007. Hope it will rise to the occasion.
Welcome to the Message Board KingWong!! Good luck with your investments.
Norman:D

Birchtree
06-25-2007, 05:15 PM
If he stays in the S fund he will need more than good luck. That game is over for now.

tsptalk
06-26-2007, 09:58 AM
If he stays in the S fund he will need more than good luck. That game is over for now.
You said that last year.

nnuut
06-26-2007, 10:12 AM
You said that last year.
Sure did!:D:laugh:

merlin
06-27-2007, 11:22 AM
S is making its move upward.

merlin
06-27-2007, 11:46 AM
OOOOOh Sh____________

robo
06-27-2007, 09:04 PM
Steve and Frank are both liking smallcaps!



Todd Market Forecast
by Steve Todd



ETF traders are long the utility ETF, symbol XLU from 40.35. Move
the stop back to 38.50. Also, on Thursday, buy the Russell 2000 ETF,
symbol IWM at the opening. Place a 1 full point stop underneath.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/TODD.html



Bullish Reversal For Ishares Russell 2000 (AMEX: IWM)
Shares of exchange-traded fund Ishares Russell 2000 (AMEX: IWM) had a huge rally on Wednesday. Ishares Russell 2000, with positions in such heavily traded stocks as Plains Exploration & Production Company (NYSE: PXP), Joy Global Inc (NASDAQ: JOYG) and Crown Holdings (NYSE: CCK), has been the weak link in the current market, but on Wednesday, it had a bullish outside reversal day. A very bullish indicator.

Ishares Russell 2000, which closed Wednesday at $83.59, had intra-day lows below the prior days trading range, intra-day highs above the prior dayís trading range, and a close at the dayís highs as well as above the prior five dayís closing highs.

Look for higher highs and a run for Ishares Russell 2000ís rally highs in coming days and weeks.

http://timing.typepad.com/timer/

Bullitt
07-12-2007, 04:35 PM
The rally is confirmed in Tech Sector. CSCO DESTROYED it's 5 year resistance at the 29 level today on nearly 80% higher volume. INTC, another bellweather, is flying high as well after breaking from a downward price channel a few weeks ago.

weatherweenie
07-12-2007, 04:37 PM
The rally is confirmed in Tech Sector. CSCO DESTROYED it's 5 year resistance at the 29 level today on nearly 80% higher volume. INTC, another bellweather, is flying high as well after breaking from a downward price channel a few weeks ago.

While a 1.39% daily move in the S fund is nothing to sneeze at, it did lag the 1.91% move in the C.

clester
08-06-2007, 12:52 PM
Whats the deal with the S fund? It's still in the red and the C is up over 1%. Its been lagging for a while now.

weatherweenie
08-06-2007, 02:42 PM
Whats the deal with the S fund? It's still in the red and the C is up over 1%. Its been lagging for a while now.

I'll take the blame. Then again, I'm only in 50%. Piece o'S*it :mad:

Birchtree
08-06-2007, 07:30 PM
A lot of oil stocks were weak today because the price of crude dropped into the $71 range. That overly impacted the small caps - BWDIK.

nnuut
08-06-2007, 09:29 PM
A lot of oil stocks were weak today because the price of crude dropped into the $71 range. That overly impacted the small caps - BWDIK.
It will continue down into the $60 dollar range and will change it's temporay negative impact on the market into a positive impact, Oil/gas stocks will get damage, but it will be a POSITIVE for the US Markets, and I mean tomorrow! The big exit from Oil, profit taking, where are they to put their money in real estate, Bonds, NAH?:DIMHO!

Bullitt
08-06-2007, 10:50 PM
As for Oil, yeah they're a great longer term investments because Hedge F's have absolutely abused them as trading vehicles. Every oil related stock trades in regard to the price of oil. Oil cyclicality is back. Bye Bye to everything from XOM-VLO-RIG. Good time to get ready to buy if they're your pleasure, but I won't be back in the Drillers come November time.

Who'd have thought GOOG and INTC would disappoint so much. I'm pretty sure the S has more weight towards the NAZ than the C? Take a look at where the Q's were on the chart 7/12 compared to now. Failure. I think GOOG and INTC broke alot of hearts this quarter.

I agree with Nnuut. Anyone profit taking in Oil sector is going to looking elsewhere to invest.

clester
08-07-2007, 10:03 AM
S fund finally making up a little ground on the C today.

Wolverine
11-07-2007, 05:13 PM
Anybody got a quick look see what the S Fund lost today?

Thanks for any info.

Minnow
11-07-2007, 05:18 PM
Anybody got a quick look see what the S Fund lost today?

Thanks for any info.

Best guess??? about half a lira.. ehm.... peso... ehm I mean U.S. Dollar

(about -50 cents)

Wolverine
11-07-2007, 05:24 PM
Thanks Minnow........I was guessing at between 50-70 cents.

This thing ain't over yet either. my 2 cents worth.

Minnow
11-07-2007, 05:26 PM
I'm gonna use my 2 cents for breeding purposes -- rub them together and see if they can't get more bang for my buck :D

Wolverine
11-07-2007, 05:32 PM
There ya go.........I'll give it a go also. :D