S Fund

[Wolverine]

Looks like 52 cents down for the S Fund today.

[qibovin]

Does anyone have a current quote for the S-fund today? Yahoo and Google Finance are both still showing Fridays quotes and chart.

[nnuut]

566.84
Trade Time:12:15PM ET
Change:http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 2.45 (0.43%)

[qibovin]

566.84
Trade Time:12:15PM ET
Change:http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 2.45 (0.43%)Thanks. Yahoo also finally updated its info. S looks like the least loss for today, so--being almost "all-in"--I'm selling a chunk of S to buy some I on sale today.:suspicious:

[budnipper1]

Chart for the S fund at the bottom of the page still shows yesterday's data.(Jan 22nd) This may have already been discussed...I haven't had time to read all the forums.

[budnipper1]

C-inx1, 345.64 +7.04 (0.53%)
S-dwcp 594.30 +4.57 (0.77%)
I-efa 70.85 +1.55 (2.23%)
F-agg 103.04 -0.06 (-0.06%)

[DCguy]

Chart for the S fund at the bottom of the page still shows yesterday's data.(Jan 22nd) This may have already been discussed...I haven't had time to read all the forums.
yes.

[weatherweenie]

Man, the S fund tanked after noon. Was up over 1%, went negative and is now up about 0.10%

[weatherweenie]

Man, the S fund tanked after noon. Was up over 1%, went negative and is now up about 0.10%

Looks like the yahoo quote is dorked up, again, for the S fund.

[qibovin]

Looks like the yahoo quote is dorked up, again, for the S fund.I've been watching Yahoo's DJW4500C intermittently through the day and the quotes have been right on--the actual graph took a while too catch up. Right now it appears to have closed at +1.96%--sweet!

[weatherweenie]

I've been watching Yahoo's DJW4500C intermittently through the day and the quotes have been right on--the actual graph took a while too catch up. Right now it appears to have closed at +1.96%--sweet!

+36 cents :D

[clester]

+36 cents :D
sweet!!!!

[budnipper1]

Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 Completion Index. (INDEX)

603.46http://i.mktw.net/mw3/quotes/arrow-up-lg.gif


Change:+0.36 +0.06%

11:03am CST 01/29/2008
http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/dwcp?sid=999166

[FUTURESTRADER]

wilshire 4500 pulling us back up...small caps lead the way up and down...$dwcpf -.47%, s&P500 -1.00%

[airlift]

Until very recently, I could use the market symbol DWCPF in the YAHOO website as a good proxy to track the movement of our S-Fund. However, the last entry that I see recorded is dated January 24. Does anyone know if YAHOO has changed the symbol and what is the current symbol? Thanks in advance.

[nnuut]

Because Microsoft is trying to buy Yahoo, when that happens everything will be so complicated nothing will work!:mad: Try this:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$EMW&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p55192775979

[Rod]

Until very recently, I could use the market symbol DWCPF in the YAHOO website as a good proxy to track the movement of our S-Fund. However, the last entry that I see recorded is dated January 24. Does anyone know if YAHOO has changed the symbol and what is the current symbol? Thanks in advance.

I've been having the same problem.

In addition to stockcharts, here's another:

http://www.stockhouse.com/comp_info.asp?symbol=.DWCPF&table=list

Can't have too many!

God Bless:)

[Robo5555]

I am 50/50 I and F.....sweet !!!!

[Robo5555]

I Meant I and S fund. :-)

[Robo5555]

My chart (bottom of page)for the S fund keeps showing Jan 25 instead of today....You guys have the same problem

[mojo]

Yes same problem for all I think. nnut posted a different link to S fund. Up 2.10%


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$EM...d=p55192775979 (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$EMW&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p55192775979)

[nnuut]

Yes same problem for all I think. nnut posted a different link to S fund. Up 2.10%


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$EM...d=p55192775979
Another: This is DWCP like the Stockchart one
http://stocks.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-quote.asp?symb=DWCP&x=11&y=9
If you like the DWCPF (like Yahoo) It's a little different, but here's one
http://finance.google.com/finance?tkr=1&q=DWCPF
I really don't know which is more correct but both are close.

[alevin]

If you like the DWCPF (like Yahoo) It's a little different, but here's one http://finance.google.com/finance?tkr=1&q=DWCPF I really don't know which is more correct but both are close. Forgive my novice ignorance nnuut. I noticed this second site refers to the quotes as being
float-adjusted. Could you or somebody else educate me please? I have no idea what that means.

[nnuut]

Forgive my novice ignorance nnuut. I noticed this second site refers to the quotes as being . Could you or somebody else educate me please? I have no idea what that means.
Basicially:

Float-Adjusted Index
An index which weights the component securities by the relative capitalization of only those shares that are available to the public for trading, rather than the total shares outstanding. See alsoFloat(3) (javascript:search('Float')).
© Copyright 1996, 1999 Gary L.Gastineau. First Edition.
© 1992 Swiss Bank Corporation.

7. What is a free-float adjusted index?
Free-float adjustments are applied to an index constituent's total shares outstanding to determine its index weight. Adjustments are made to excluded those shares held by controlling group such as government holdings, foreign ownership limits, cross holdings and family holdings. The resulting shares outstanding after free-float is applied represents the true number of shares available for institutional and retail investors in the marketplace. http://www.ishares.com.hk/faq_msci.html#7

Gives you a better Idea of the true status of an index fund, some folks like the float adjusted numbers some don't, There isn't that much difference in the case of the "S".

[camper65]

Question,
How can the Russell 2000 be down by .5% yet the S fund is up by 5 points?
What is it that I don't understand here?
Anyone!

[FUTURESTRADER]

Question,
How can the Russell 2000 be down by .5% yet the S fund is up by 5 points?
What is it that I don't understand here?
Anyone!

the symbol for S is $DWCPF, wilshire 4500, 4500 stocks out of the wilshire 5000, the 500 difference corrolates directly to the S&P 500. I didn't see the S fund/wilshire 4500 up at all today.

[camper65]

I'm looking at the chart down below, I now notice it says "1 Feb" (?)
Is there a problem there?
Thanks for your info. (Nite shift worker here, very cofused during DAY LITE!!!!)(LOL)

[FUTURESTRADER]

ohh...http://www.prophet.net/analyze/javacharts.jsp,
try this.

If your niteshift is like mine when I was a national guard aircraft mech, you might have time to play with a little more technical analysis

[camper65]

Thanks for the link! I bookmarked it and will explore later.
I'm a nite shift worker just not a nite shift person!
"Mankind was not meant to be nocturnal !!!
And those that i have found that enjoy nite shift------welllll, there a bit strange!!!!

[Silverbird]

Chart wierdness below, S fund is NOT VXF (Vanguard Extended Market Vipers). Not aware if it's even a close substitute

[DCguy]

S is down 2.68%

[weatherweenie]

S is down 2.68%

Lovely.

At least I only have 25% in there.

[Rascle Man]

Are there any ways to come up with estimates for the S fund they way they do in the I fund. Thanks for any info.

[weatherweenie]

Are there any ways to come up with estimates for the S fund they way they do in the I fund. Thanks for any info.

Check out this quote for the S fund

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EDWCPF

[DCguy]

Are there any ways to come up with estimates for the S fund they way they do in the I fund. Thanks for any info.

multiply 2.67% (0.0267) by the current stock price ($18.15)
=$17.66

[nnuut]

multiply 2.67% (0.0267) by the current stock price ($18.15)
=$17.66
$18.15 x .9733 = $17.66
price x (1.00 -.0267=.9733)=$17.66:D

[Rascle Man]

Thanks much for the responses. :)

[Rascle Man]

I have another question about where the $18.15 comes from. From the chart, it looks like the price is more like $573.89. Is there a different chart to be looking at, or another calculation to be made?

Thanks.

[Rascle Man]

Disregard. It's from the day's previous value. I should be awake by now, but aparantly, I'm not. :rolleyes:

[DCguy]

C and S may be able to finish in green

[XL-entLady]

Hi all,

My figures show the S Fund is currently 2.8% ABOVE its 50 day moving average. We know that historically the S Fund often surges before C and then tapers off as C begins to move stronger.

My spreadsheets have been urging me into a larger chunk of S for 2 months now and I've been ignoring them. :mad::sick:

So what do you all think? Are credit crises, oil prices, et al, going to affect the S Fund run soon, or should we be riding this trend on up?

Any comments would be appreciated!

Lady

[luv2read]

Hi Lady,

In a "normal" year, I'd say sell in May and go away, although I never get completely out during the "off season" except to take profits, then get right back in (those days are gone with daily IFT's:(). However, this is an election year, that, oil and the fed bailouts/rescues have skewed everything. If the fed had not come through for the financials, the strong would have absorbed the weak and it would be business as usual within the next few months. IMO the housing market has at least another 9 months to go before it bottoms. Financials will continue to writedown losses and seek capital to flush out their balance sheets. So, having a good stake in S might not be a bad idea. I'm waiting for an opportunity to put more in and be positioned for the summer...instead of being out. I plan to keep a stake in all of them.

12%ayear has been a big believer in the S fund but it let him down. That doesn't mean he has given up hope. You might want to check his thread.

[nnuut]

The Snake fund has been HISSING and Pissed Off for over a week. Is it time to TREAD ON HIM?:worried: 4198

[Skip]

season chart for s fund..
Good Luck
Skip
5543

[JTH]

Thanks Skip :)

[Skip]

The s fund in a line chart
5555

[Skip]

now picking the best 6 months of the year to be in the s fund. you would of on AVERAGE make more $$$$ with less risk.... Note MAY being the best month to be long.... Who would of quess that ? I usually like to get out in the middle of May as things get to busy in life here....then in and out a few times in the summer.
Another thing to look at is to divide the chart into weeks... sorry you have to eyeball it... Take note of the best times to enter and exit your trades... We only get 2 trades now so take your best shots..
PS
If anyone would like a seasonality chart of a stock let me know...got to put the odds in our favor....
Good trading
Skip

[tsptalk]

Great stuff Skip, thanks!

[JTH]

If January's drubbing taught me anything, it's that this market can be very unforgiving in a short period of time. Hopefully the next time I take a position in the S-fund, it will be a quick in-&-out .

http://i138.photobucket.com/albums/q261/Kendlefox/EMWDaily-1.jpg
Looking at the daily chart, I've circled in green, the lines of support I'm hoping will hold. I don't' have much faith in 348 or 332 holding but I've been wrong more times than right, so I'll just sit on the sidelines and watch.

http://i138.photobucket.com/albums/q261/Kendlefox/EMWHS.jpg
I'm not good with Head & Shoulder patterns, but I am watching this chart to see how it plays out.

http://i138.photobucket.com/albums/q261/Kendlefox/EMWPF.jpg
Looking at the P&F Chart set up with a 2 Box Reversal, I find it hard to believe it has a bullish price objective of 408. It also has a High Pole Warning.

"The high pole warning is given when a chart rises above a previous high by at least 3 boxes but then reverses to give back at least 50 percent of the rise. The reversal implies that the demand that was making the prices rise has given way to supply pressure. The pattern is a warning that lower prices could be seen in the future."
http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=supportnf_alerts (http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=support:pnf_alerts)

http://i138.photobucket.com/albums/q261/Kendlefox/EMWWeekly-1.jpg
Last but not least, we have the weekly chart. I just wanted to point out the last candle colored in yellow. I guess you would call it an inverted hammer.

" The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a decline or downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential trend reversal or support levels. After a decline, the long upper shadow indicates buying pressure during the session. However, the bulls were not able to sustain this buying pressure and prices closed well off of their highs to create the long upper shadow. Because of this failure, bullish confirmation is required before action. An Inverted Hammer followed by a gap up or long white candlestick with heavy volume could act as bullish confirmation."
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:introducti on_to_cand

Cheers...JTH

[Skip]

All of the index's are setting on a swing point...
It all depends on what happens in the senate this week... It makes it all to hard to trade.... Its a damm if you do and a damm if you don't...

Good Luck

Skip

[JTH]

All of the index's are setting on a swing point...
It all depends on what happens in the senate this week... It makes it all to hard to trade.... Its a damm if you do and a damm if you don't...

Good Luck

Skip

It seems there is growing momentum against this stimulus bill by Joe public. I only have two questions I want answered... :suspicious:

1. Are the politicians in the Senate willing to lose there seats next election for an unpopular spending bill most think is doomed to fail?

2. Will Mr. Market throw a down-trending temper tantrum if the bill doesn't pass, like he has in the past?

[roskopfm]

It was nice to see the Repulician party which has been in hiding the past six years wake up and put the Obama is his place and say not so fast. I sure hope it fails, the spending includes so much pork and half if it isnt going to help the economy. Our kids and grandkids are going to have to pay this back some day. Call your senators and tell them to vote no.

[Steadygain]

S Fund - 52 week low was yesterday 300.21

It dove very substantially in 2/09
All bad news is already factored in

Potiential for at least a 15 point Gain is HIGH

[InvertedNyBot]

I'm quoting numbers for the $EMW from here:
http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?$EMW

Friday 5-8 is a pivotal day as this index crossed the 200 day MA from below and finished above it. I've been in since 4-6-09. I'm looking to get out and take profits on the first strong up-day that is within 4% of 440. Then I expect a retracement back to the 200 day MA where I will try and jump back in. This could all happen next week. I will use 2 of the 3 allotted monthly web interfund transfers. I'm looking to book a profit of around 18% since 4-6.

So EMW closed the week at 423, after crossing the 200-MA at 421.

So far since the bottom, S fund is out performing C by 5% or more. Now that the financials are rallying, does anyone expect rotation in the near future, with C catching up to S?

It's about time that someone put the focus on S.

[kodaq2001]

I don't know what any of that means, but i do know that i'm gonna stick with the s funds for awhile. how long are the prices expected to rise? ... i thought we were in a depression.

[Buster]

S Fund did better than any of the other Funds for June (+.73%)..It has a long way to go to catch up to last year this time..but it is increasing, slow but surely..:)

[Buster]

S just broke through the 500 resistance..this is my goal..I'll be jumping to G soon..

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/b?s=%5EDWCPF

[nnuut]

What if we get a conformation tomorrow with a higher high, what would you do then?:worried:

[Buster]

What if we get a confirmation tomorrow with a higher high, what would you do then?:worried:
Hopefully it will confirm by NOON Eastern...however, If it shows signs of retreating, I'll hang on till the next push.http://i115.photobucket.com/albums/n289/blackstangs281/Avatars/scared.gif

[James48843]

I bailed today. Weak knees.

[Buster]

well..it looks good so far..maybe we are having a confirmation...I'll wait till the last minute then bail to G..Got back almost all that I lost over the past year so the time maybe now to sit this out on the G spot.

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/b?s=%5EDWCPF

[nnuut]

Only the TRAN is NOT cooperating, but it is suppose to be the leader?:worried:
6805

[nnuut]

I think I'll take a little off the table but leave my 65% "S" for now. SO BE IT!!:cool:

[kodaq2001]

oh yeah! i finally decided to venture out of the g funds yesterday and threw most of it in s funds. its looking good so far.

[fedgolfer]

Only the TRAN is NOT cooperating, but it is suppose to be the leader?:worried:
6805

It broke out several days ago. Leader in pattern... pushed the rising wedge upper trendline and made it steeper... the s&P is following.

[Buster]

Crap..I got side tracked just before Noon EST..missed the chance to pull the plug on the S..hope tomorrow still shows a green day..:)

[Buster]

Holy shmolie..what a great day for the S fund..those of you that just came aboard, you did great..Congratulations..:cool::)


can anyone predict what tomorrow will hold?

[Birchtree]

Tomorrow will be even better than today - Steady says at least a 300 point banger on the Dow.

[Buster]

Tomorrow will be even better than today - Steady says at least a 300 point banger on the Dow.
Thanks Birch..I got my fingers crossed..this can't keep up for much longer without a spell.:o

[Buster]

Tomorrow will be even better than today - Steady says at least a 300 point banger on the Dow.
Well so much for the BS... or should it be "THAT" ?:rolleyes:

Maybe tomorrow will be the day for a x-fer to G..

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/b?s=%5EDWCPF

[Buster]

Hmmm..S has dropped into considerable BUY territory from it's highs the other day...I think I'm a gonna watch it for a while longer from the sidelines before I buy any more of it..maybe a bottom in the next week or two..:confused:

[tsptalk]

The S-fund is outperforming again today. Mid-caps, which are a large part of out S-fund, are trying to breakout of an inverse H&S pattern...

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/121609a.gif

[Bullitt]

Looks good to me, but isn't a reverse H&S more of a reversal pattern than continuation?

[tsptalk]

Looks good to me, but isn't a reverse H&S more of a reversal pattern than continuation?
Not in an uptrend - but let me confirm that.

[tsptalk]

Not in an uptrend - but let me confirm that.
I found this on head & shoulders as a continuation pattern (http://books.google.com/books?id=5zhXEqdr_IcC&pg=PA153&lpg=PA153&dq=head+and+shoulders+continuation+pattern&source=bl&ots=oZEfvT32mm&sig=eFwTIBUVWslHSTce9kQvFvLkEIY&hl=en&ei=WEjQSpnzHaSUtgfA0rT_Aw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=7&ved=0CCUQ6AEwBg#v=onepage&q=head%20and%20shoulders%20continuation%20pattern&f=false).

As I thought, H&S (and inverse H&S) patterns can be reversal patterns or continuation patterns. An inverse H&S is a reversal pattern in a downtrend, but a continuation pattern in an uptend.

[JTH]

Looks good, that's a 547 PO from the breakout.

Here's more backup from the recently flipped over P&F with a 566 PO

7656

[Bullitt]

Thanks for the clarification. The more I think of it, I remember the inverse H&S from 2007 that led to the highs in October. That was also a continuation pattern.

[tsptalk]

After a pullback to the neckline last week, the mid-cap index is making a new high hitting 724 this morning. I'm leery about Monday morning gaps, so let's see how it closes before claiming victory.

The S-fund is outperforming again today. Mid-caps, which are a large part of out S-fund, are trying to breakout of an inverse H&S pattern...

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/121609a.gif

[hessian]

After a pullback to the neckline last week, the mid-cap index is making a new high hitting 724 this morning. I'm leery about Monday morning gaps, so let's see how it closes before claiming victory.
Question: noted the you meant an Inverse H&S breakout?
Now that I'm in, I'm rootin', tootin' for the breakout - (personnally)!!
Obama sure made a MESS with his stantments on BANNING Banks from much of their business - lets hope he clarifies some of those statements!
VR

[tsptalk]

Yes. Forgot on the chart to mention "inverse" H&S but mentioned it in the text...


Mid-caps, which are a large part of out S-fund, are trying to breakout of an inverse H&S pattern...

[James48843]

Obama sure made a MESS with his stantments on BANNING Banks from much of their business - lets hope he clarifies some of those statements!
VR

I think the market reacted more from the Supreme Court case saying corporations can now flow money into politics- breaking 63 years of campaign finance limits-

Justice Stevens, in the dissent, wrote: "The court’s ruling threatens to undermine the integrity of elected institutions around the nation."

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2010/01/us_supreme_court_ruling_on_cam.html

That is the shocker. Corporations can now spend as much as they like.

[SJCX]

I'm 100% in the S fund now after moving from the C fund

[grandma]

I think the market reacted more from the Supreme Court case saying corporations can now flow money into politics- breaking 63 years of campaign finance limits-
Justice Stevens, in the dissent, wrote: "The court’s ruling threatens to undermine the integrity of elected institutions around the nation."
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2010/01/us_supreme_court_ruling_on_cam.html
That is the shocker. Corporations can now spend as much as they like.

An e-mail news this morning reminds us that this ruling may have unintended results when you take into consideration that the parent company of many of our businesses and corporations are of foreign countries. Seems like it was titled something about Welcome Our Next Senator - from Arabia..
implying, I'm sure, that some of the folks running for office may already be bought & paid for to get congress to look at them more favorably.

[fedgolfer]

weekly chart of $emw... week ain't done, but this week's candle has already tagged the upper bolly (on 3-3-10):

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$emw&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27119276566

[JimmyJoe]

Is the Russell 2000 tied to the S fund? If so, why didn't the S fund go up about 1.81 today? Anybody?

[tsptalk]

The share prices haven't been updated. Are you talking about the Dow Completion index below? that's the Wilshire 4500, not the Russell. The Russel is just a small cap index. The Wilshire 4500 is small and mid-caps, and is what our S fund actually tracks.

[JimmyJoe]

On the Tsp.gov site main page, the funds are available to review by clicking on 'fund sheets'. I looked at the S fund on that site and it mentions the S&P400 and the Russell as indicies in the same sentence, see below*, Anyway, I assumed that since the Russell went up 1.81 today, (posted on the 'running overhead banner' with the S&P and DOW and other indiceis on the Money Channel) that the S fund would go up greater than the .05% it did at the final 4pm end of the day tally. Since you have stated that the S fund follows the Wishire more closely, and the Russell not much at all, my question you have answered below, and I thank you. And,... I have just clicked on on the clickable 'name change' in the main reference to the S fund and was sent to the page which states that the Wilshire 4500 is tracked by the S fund and I assume this is no more the case for the S&P400 and the Russell 2000.

Maybe a good question (that has no answer) is why doesn't the Money Channel show the Wilshire 4500 on the 'running banner'? I think it's a headline index.

Well, thanks for taking time to answer Tom, and I apologize that this became a long winded discussion on my part and I should have clicked on the 'name change' earlier. However it is a funny a term for such an important change. It should read "Wilshire 4500 index change". A bit more eye catching wouldn't you say?

Confusion on page 2 of the Tsp web site for the S fund*"A portion of Extended Market Index Fund assets is reserved to meet the needs of daily client activity. This liquidity reserve is invested in futures contracts of the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 (other broad equity indexes).":embarrest:

[Buster]

Holy Cow !!!..Has the S fund been going crazy or what?...I hope a lot of you have been in..as long as the C fund too...(If I had only stayed in longer.:notrust:)

[clester]

37 days left for me. You must be CSRS. I am soooo ready.

S fund is where its at for now. The share price finally eclipsed the I fund!

[Buster]

37 days left for me. You must be CSRS. I am soooo ready.

S fund is where its at for now. The share price finally eclipsed the I fund!
You must be leaving the day after Memorial Day..I'm staying till Thursday, June 3rd...this way I'll get 9 days of pay for the last Pay period and also I still get the full month of June's retirement pay....I'm still a little nervous about pulling the plug..:worried:

[clester]

You must be leaving the day after Memorial Day..I'm staying till Thursday, June 3rd...this way I'll get 9 days of pay for the last Pay period and also I still get the full month of June's retirement pay....I'm still a little nervous about pulling the plug..:worried:

I hear ya. Its a little nerve racking. Its exciting too though. Starting a new chapter in your life. I'm ATC FERS and I will work the holiday May 31 as my last day. One last double time day on the way out.

Worked over the spreadsheet for retirement pay/expenses dozens of time. Did it today as a matter of fact.

Its actually 36 days to go (35 not counting today). Oops.

[Buster]

I hear ya. Its a little nerve racking. Its exciting too though. Starting a new chapter in your life. I'm ATC FERS and I will work the holiday May 31 as my last day. One last double time day on the way out.

Worked over the spreadsheet for retirement pay/expenses dozens of time. Did it today as a matter of fact.

Its actually 36 days to go (35 not counting today). Oops.

Good luck in your new life..I'm gonna work 3 more years as a contractor at the same pay..then hang it up for good, so I didn't plan too much for living on the annuity..I'm just gonna bank it and pay off the house and cars, etc. ..and then move to Las Cruces.

[Warrenlm]

...also I still get the full month of June's retirement pay....

Actually you will get 26 days of annuity pay, or 26/30 of your month's annuity.

[Warrenlm]

Just a plug because some forget, although you probably are well aware, .....the CSRS VC allows one to increase his IRA up to 10% of life earnings.

[Warrenlm]

On thread topic, "Peaceful Gains" is staying 100% iin the S fund for his "balanced" allocation. I guess he has not read Birchtree's admonition recently.

[clester]

My last month starts today. :) G fund looks real good right now.

[SkyPilot]

Guess the S-Fund!

I prognosticate 27% this year :blink:

[FAB1]

:blink: how about -27% :blink::D:sick:

[SkyPilot]

how about -27% :blink::D:sick:

Good point! I didn't specify + or - :nuts:

[Buster]

Strange how the S fund took a big hit today and yet the DOW was +20 something..:confused:

[mayday]

No sell sign yet.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24EMW

[James48843]

I have noticed yesterday and today, that the "C" fund - top 500, stocks have done better than the rest of the market. This is a fundemental shift from the past three or four months, when small caps have done better overall.

Watch for signs of shifting sands- and be prepared to move to safety in case the bottom falls out.

[fedgolfer]

So you think this is a fundamental shift on a flight to quality? Bull to bear market, or just 3-5% pullback? Or a shift to the laggard as we enter earnings? Just wondering what magnitude you are insinuating? Thanks :)

[JTH]

I have noticed yesterday and today, that the "C" fund - top 500, stocks have done better than the rest of the market. This is a fundemental shift from the past three or four months, when small caps have done better overall.

Watch for signs of shifting sands- and be prepared to move to safety in case the bottom falls out.

There is something wrong with the S&P 600, they are underperforming the Wilshire 4500

[James48843]

So you think this is a fundamental shift on a flight to quality? Bull to bear market, or just 3-5% pullback? Or a shift to the laggard as we enter earnings? Just wondering what magnitude you are insinuating? Thanks :)

Ithink just a small, small pullback here. 3-5% max. Just a wave. We need the crest of the wave to break. It's unnatural for it to be this long.

[James48843]

Ithink just a small, small pullback here. 3-5% max. Just a wave. We need the crest of the wave to break. It's unnatural for it to be this long.


S Fund now down almost 2% today.

[James48843]

Boo!

There, that ought to fix it.

"S" fund was down by -1.51%.

So I figured I would scare it back into an upward direction.

[James48843]

BOO!

BOO! i say

10722
BOO!


(down -1.62% and staring to scare me)

[Birchtree]

Oh, just relax and let'er crack - it's just purrfect.

[nnuut]

BOO!!!!!!!!
10723 10724 10725

[nnuut]

If that don't do it this will!
BOO!!!!
10726

[poolman]

If that don't do it this will!

BOO!!!!

10726



Do you have to post that again. :blink:

God she is Fugly..... lol, :)

[James48843]

Do you have to post that again. :blink:

God she is Fugly..... lol, :)

Hey- it worked, didn't it?

[burrocrat]

Do you have to post that again. :blink:

God she is Fugly..... lol, :)

that's because you're looking at the wrong end.

[RealMoneyIssues]

that's because you're looking at the wrong end.

Are you SERIOUS?????? :sick:

[poolman]

You guys are a Trip...


lmao :laugh:

[Frixxxx]

that's because you're looking at the wrong end.
There's a difference?:notrust:

[RealMoneyIssues]

There's a difference?:notrust:

My point exactly... good one !! :nuts:

[burrocrat]

There's a difference?:notrust:

of course there is, the sunglasses go up top and the rope belt on the bottom, recommend staying away from the teeth.

[burrocrat]

why do you think she got that look on her face? that's not it. um, sorry?

[jpcavin]

It's a toss for me between Hillary and this other one..

10728

WHEW!

[poolman]

It's a toss for me between Hillary and this other one..

10728

WHEW!

OUCH.. :o

[burrocrat]

It's a toss for me between Hillary and this other one..

10728

WHEW!

nothing wrong with that one neither, girl's worked hard, give her her due.

[jpcavin]

nothing wrong with that one neither, girl's worked hard, give her her due.

I guess she's OVERWORKED!

[nnuut]

It's a toss for me between Hillary and this other one..

10728

WHEW!

This one was too scary, scared everyone OUT of the Markets, Awesome!
I saved the picture it could come in handy for something like PEST CONTROL.

[James48843]

Well, I am seeing some UGLY stuff this morning in the charts. I mean U-G-L-Y.


The P&F for the "S" is showing me that right now we're on a brink.


IF the "S" moves more than a 1/4 percent lower, then we're into a freefall zone- and the possibility of a 10% pullback looks very real to me. The possiblity of a 20% pullback is also not out of the realm of possibilities.

Do I bail out today?


Ouch.

We'll see what happens today. Very telling day.

[law87]

Well, I am seeing some UGLY stuff this morning in the charts. I mean U-G-L-Y.


The P&F for the "S" is showing me that right now we're on a brink.


IF the "S" moves more than a 1/4 percent lower, then we're into a freefall zone- and the possibility of a 10% pullback looks very real to me. The possiblity of a 20% pullback is also not out of the realm of possibilities.

Do I bail out today?


Ouch.

We'll see what happens today. Very telling day.

indeed thank god im in the G

[Sensei]

Is it just me, or has the S fund started to diverge from the W4500? Friday - W4500 (-0.04%), S fund (-0.10%). I believe a couple other days this week were slightly off as well. I know the TSP funds earn dividends that the indices do not, but that ought to result in a higher percentage gain for the S fund, not a lower one.

[burrocrat]

Is it just me, or has the S fund started to diverge from the W4500? Friday - W4500 (-0.04%), S fund (-0.10%). I believe a couple other days this week were slightly off as well. I know the TSP funds earn dividends that the indices do not, but that ought to result in a higher percentage gain for the S fund, not a lower one.

blackrock's giant proprietary internal tsp spreadsheet that replicates actual indices has apparently developed a data divergence error, possibly to recoup operating expenses and executive bonus obligations. these are not the captive government droids you are looking for, move along.

[Sensei]

Today the S fund reclaimed part of what it had lost on Friday. S fund up +0.83% while the W4500 actually only gained +0.79%.

I remember for a long time this site's "Fund Index Quotes" link used the DJ Completion Index to track the S fund (I believe that is what TSP.gov claims the S fund is based on), but it was not tracking accurately either, so Tom tossed it out and started using the W4500.

So, yeah. Whatever. What's for lunch?

[burrocrat]

Today the S fund reclaimed part of what it had lost on Friday. S fund up +0.83% while the W4500 actually only gained +0.79%.

I remember for a long time this site's "Fund Index Quotes" link used the DJ Completion Index to track the S fund (I believe that is what TSP.gov claims the S fund is based on), but it was not tracking accurately either, so Tom tossed it out and started using the W4500.

So, yeah. Whatever. What's for lunch?

have you tried the spicy asian mccrap?

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/strange-news/17703-weird-news.html#post429404

[merlin]

The S fund doesn't match the Wilshire 4500 when it is up. But it matches when it's down. What gives?

[Nordic]

Here's the index that seems to be tracking the S Fund the closest, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total: ^DWCPF: Summary for Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total- Yahoo! Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/q;_ylt=AnA.Ursvx5rj5421Irxq5_r3y70F;_ylu=X3oDMTEyc 21zcXJxBHBvcwM1BHNlYwN5ZmlRdW90ZXNUYWJsZQRzbGsDZHd jcGY-?s=^DWCPF)

[uscfanhawaii]

The S fund doesn't match the Wilshire 4500 when it is up. But it matches when it's down. What gives?

Nordic is right. But there is still more. Like most of the technical questions about the TSP Funds, your best source is TSP.gov itself. Under Funds Overview/Fund Management it says:
F,C,S, and I Funds

The Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board currently contracts BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A. (BlackRock) to manage the F, C, S, and I Fund assets. The F and C Fund assets are held in separate accounts (https://www.tsp.gov/sitehelp/glossary/glossary.shtml?term=SeparateAccount) and the S and I Fund assets are invested in Collective Funds. These trust funds are comprised of investments by tax-exempt institutions like the TSP, such as pension plans and endowments. Investing collectively in this way can be advantageous because it reduces trading costs. The securities (https://www.tsp.gov/sitehelp/glossary/glossary.shtml?term=Securities) held in these commingled funds are held in trust and they are not assets of BlackRock, nor can they be used to meet the financial obligations of BlackRock.

The F, C, S, and I Funds are index funds (https://www.tsp.gov/sitehelp/glossary/glossary.shtml?term=IndexFund), each of which is invested in order to replicate the risk and return characteristics of its appropriate benchmark index. For example, the C Fund is invested in a stock index fund that fully replicates the Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P 500) Index, a broad market index made up of the stocks of 500 large to medium-sized U.S. companies. The C Fund's objective is to match the performance of the S&P 500. The F, C, S, and I Funds remain invested regardless of the performance of the securities markets or the overall economy.

BlackRock Funds
Although the BlackRock Collective Funds operate in a manner similar to mutual funds, they are not, in fact, mutual funds and are not open to individual investors. Furthermore, they are trust funds that are regulated by the Comptroller of the Currency, not by the Securities and Exchange Commission, and therefore do not have ticker symbols.

And under Fund Comparison Matrix it says:

The chart below provides a comparison of the available TSP funds. You can learn more information about each fund by clicking on the fund name.




G Fund (https://www.tsp.gov/investmentfunds/fundsheets/fundPerformance_G.shtml)
F Fund* (https://www.tsp.gov/investmentfunds/fundsheets/fundPerformance_F.shtml)
C Fund* (https://www.tsp.gov/investmentfunds/fundsheets/fundPerformance_C.shtml)
S Fund* (https://www.tsp.gov/investmentfunds/fundsheets/fundPerformance_S.shtml)
I Fund* (https://www.tsp.gov/investmentfunds/fundsheets/fundPerformance_I.shtml)
L Funds** (https://www.tsp.gov/investmentfunds/lfundsheet/fundPerformance_L.shtml)


Description of Investments
Government securities (specially issued to the TSP)
Government, corporate, and mortgage-backed bonds
Stocks of large and medium-sized U.S. companies
Stocks of small to medium-sized U.S. companies (not included in the C Fund)
International stocks of 22 developed countries
Invested in the G, F, C, S, and I Funds


Objective of Fund
Interest income without risk of loss of principal
To match the performance of the Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index
To match the performance of the Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) Index
To match the performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Completion TSM Index
To match the performance of the Morgan Stanley Capital International EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index
To provide professionally diversified portfolios based on various time horizons, using the G, F, C, S, and I Funds


Risk
Inflation risk
Market risk, Credit risk, Prepayment risk, Inflation risk
Market risk, Inflation risk
Market risk, Inflation risk
Market risk, Currency risk, Inflation risk
Exposed to all of the types of risk to which the individual TSP funds are exposed - but total risk is reduced through diversification among the five individual funds


Volatility
Low
Low to moderate
Moderate
Moderate to high — historically more volatile than C Fund
Moderate to high — historically more volatile than C Fund
Asset allocation shifts as time horizon approaches to reduce volatility


Types of Earnings***
Interest
Change in market prices

Interest
Change in market prices

Dividends
Change in market prices

Dividends
Change in market prices

Change in relative value of currency

Dividends
Composite of earnings in the underlying funds


2012 Administrative Expenses****
0.027%
0.027%
0.027%
0.027%
0.027%
0.027%


Inception Date
04/01/87
01/29/88
01/29/88
05/01/01
05/01/01
08/01/05




And finally, under Share Price Calculation:

Share Price Calculation


The TSP is a daily valued plan which means the value of your account is determined each business day based on the daily share price and the number of shares you hold in each fund.
At the end of each business day, after the stock and bond markets have closed, the total value of the funds' holdings (net of accrued administrative expenses) is divided by the total number of shares outstanding to determine the share price for that day.


Dividends and Capital Gains (https://www.tsp.gov/investmentfunds/fundsoverview/sharePriceCalculation.shtml#gains)
Share Purchases (https://www.tsp.gov/investmentfunds/fundsoverview/sharePriceCalculation.shtml#purchases)
Share Sales (https://www.tsp.gov/investmentfunds/fundsoverview/sharePriceCalculation.shtml#sales)
Fair Value Pricing (https://www.tsp.gov/investmentfunds/fundsoverview/sharePriceCalculation.shtml#pricing)


Dividends and Capital Gains
BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A, which manages the index funds in which the F, C, S, and I Funds are invested, credits interest and dividend income each business day. This income is then reflected in the TSP share prices.
The daily change in TSP share prices reflects all investment income (interest on short-term investments, dividends, capital gains or losses, and securities lending income) net of TSP administrative expenses.


Since BlackRock is a private fund (not open to public), you will not find those funds in public fund quotes. And of course, there are all the other above adjustments included in the daily valuation as well. But the objective of the fund is to match Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total: so ^DWCPF (http://finance.yahoo.com/q;_ylt=AnA.Ursvx5rj5421Irxq5_r3y70F;_ylu=X3oDMTEyc 21zcXJxBHBvcwM1BHNlYwN5ZmlRdW90ZXNUYWJsZQRzbGsDZHd jcGY-?s=%5EDWCPF) is the closest. But it just SEEMS to side with the downs and not the ups.....it should go both ways! (Apologies to Burro.....did you finish lunch yet?!? :laugh: )

[clester]

Facebook is in the S fund now but will move to S&P 500 this week (or was it last week?). What effect will that have on the funds?

[PLANO]

Fewer likes.

[Frixxxx]

Facebook is in the S fund now but will move to S&P 500 this week (or was it last week?). What effect will that have on the funds?

Link (http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/facebook-added-to-s-p-500-index-155308928.html)

Kind of explains it, but remember it is an index. I like that it references Teradyne might do better once it leaves the index......history shows.

[Frixxxx]

What is up with the Wilshire chart? It shows a previous close of 975.XX when it clearly closed at 983.XX

[Frixxxx]

What is up with the Wilshire chart? It shows a previous close of 975.XX when it clearly closed at 983.XX

And as soon as I type this, they fixed it!

[tsptalk]

It seems to be off often for some reason. I have had people complain to me telling me to fix it, but I have to explain it's Yahoo sending the info.

[Frixxxx]

It seems to be off often for some reason. I have had people complain to me telling me to fix it, but I have to explain it's Yahoo sending the info.

Yeah, I was watching the Yahoo feed.....It is weird. I have sent an e-mail to Yahoo to determine the issue, but I'm sure I'm a little fish in the pond of investors. Now, if Barclay's asked the question, I'm sure we would never see this issue again!

P.S. Really, they still think it's your feed and not Yahoo's?

[tsptalk]

And as soon as I type this, they fixed it!
Cool, but they still have it wrong on the large chart... http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EW4500&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=b&c=

[FireWeatherMet]

DWCPF as of noon down 43% from its highs a month ago,,.and still showing no signs of slowing with more circuit breakers shutting trading again today. :sick:

45747

[Bullitt]

Previous poster would have been much better buying that day than spreading doom and gloom.


This is the fastest (almost) doubling in the small-cap Russell 2000 in its history, beating its prior (almost) doubling from the '82 bottom by 10 days.

47954

https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/status/1338520135028666368

[weatherweenie]

A time machine would be nice.


Previous poster would have been much better buying that day than spreading doom and gloom.



47954

https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/status/1338520135028666368

[Bullitt]

Yeah no kidding. A lesson many have learned this year is that buy and hold is very hard to beat.

In April when WSJ declared a new bull market after the 20% up move from the bottom, it was easy to see the market as extended.

Now that a vaccine is ready, it's time for some of those earnings to catch up to the prices. PE expansion can only go on for so long.

[Bullitt]

Morgan Stanley not as bullish on small caps as they were in April 2020. The market flyers - TSLA, ZM, PTON, DOCU, DASH, SQ, SNOW, TDOC are currently all down 25-50% from their highs.


The index has been one of the best-performing worldwide in the last year. It has even outperformed the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which has gained 75%, thanks to triple-digit percentage gains in the likes of electric vehicle maker Tesla, or video call app Zoom.

Morgan Stanley has therefore downgraded small caps to reduce risk.

The bank upgraded the sector last April.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/morgan-stanley-downgrades-small-caps-as-cost-pressure-rises-2021-3-1030214268

[Bullitt]

IWM breaking down. Another possible H&S pattern to watch for especially if it drops another 5%.

Neckline is somewhere in the red with downside to wipe out all of 2021 gains. Note that early January gap up.

48892

[tsptalk]

There's been a bit of a divergence between the Russell 2000 and the S-fund recently.

The S-fund chart looks a little better than the IWM with that bull flag - although that doesn't mean it will breakout. It just seems like something a little more bullish is going on with those midcaps portion of the DWCPF.

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2021/041321b.gif

[mmk119]

That January gap makes a heck of a target.

[tsptalk]

50-day EMA held today on Russell 2000. Also marked that open gap...

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2021/041321d.gif

[tsptalk]

Breakout from down trend?

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2021/041421a.gif

[rangerray]

I hope so, but it's still early in the day.

[tsptalk]

Uh, oh...

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2021/041421d.gif


Breakout from down trend?

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2021/041421a.gif

[Bullitt]

Another big hit to IWM today. Heading for that red zone.

https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/the-s-fund/29-s-fund-post654645.html#post654645

[tsptalk]

Another big hit to IWM today. Heading for that red zone.

https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/the-s-fund/29-s-fund-post654645.html#post654645

Looks like a Mothman pattern. :sgrin:

[joblin20]

What is a mothman pattern?

[Bullitt]

What is a mothman pattern?


Very similar to the chupacabra pattern.

[joblin20]

Trrying to find it, I am assuming it's bad?

[tsptalk]

I made it up, but .... just say'in. :D

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2021/042021e.gif
https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb.2021/042021e.gif

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.unexplained-mysteries.com%2Fimages%2Fnews_large%2Fnews-mothman-art-2.jpg&f=1&nofb=1

[joblin20]

Oh lol, it does!

[Bullitt]

For fans of the S Fund / Small Caps, Morgan Stanley closed out their underweight small caps yesterday. They got the bearish part of that call right on March 15. They now expect small caps to perform neutral relative large caps.

[Bullitt]

Much awaited breakout in IWM (Russell 2000) happened today.

51751

[nasa1974]

It was a nice day for the "S" fund. Still have to be cautious about the gap in mid October.

[bmneveu]

Much awaited breakout in IWM (Russell 2000) happened today.

51751

Would like to see that ceiling act as a floor now that it is under us. If we retrace and bounce off it to the upside, that is very bullish to me.

[Bullitt]

Looks like we got a quick retest in IWM yesterday. Up nearly 2% today.

Massively bullish as the small cap Russel 2000 has been consolidating since late January/early February 2021.

[Bullitt]

On the weekly it doesn't look as bad, but here is the daily IWM. Possible break of that support line that was previous resistance and will be something to watch next week.

S fund has more of those small cap stocks that rely on cheap lending to fund their ventures. With everyone seeming to think higher rates are in the cards, it's natural that they'd get hit. How much the fed can really raise rates is the question.

51967

[tsptalk]

That orange line is a 135-day EMA. It's been an interesting, meaningful average this year.

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/2021/112421b.gif

[Bullitt]

Heavy multi month resistance area ahead from 2000 - 2100 for the S Fund.

55213

[FireWeatherMet]

Heavy multi month resistance area ahead from 2000 - 2100 for the S Fund.

55213

That 2050-ish level is still 10% above current levels (1845).
I can't imagine anyone sitting on the sidelines right now, with so much room to move higher before the next major resistance level.:thinking:

[nasa1974]

If they are looking to do it now would be the time. September the last two years were not good for the "S" or "C" funds. "S" -3.04/2020 and -4.00/2021. "C" -3.80/2020 and -4.65/2021.

[rangerray]

That 2050-ish level is still 10% above current levels (1845).
I can't imagine anyone sitting on the sidelines right now, with so much room to move higher before the next major resistance level.:thinking:

I've been thinking about this comment ever since you said it. I think you're on to something, but at this point it would be nice for a slight pause. Though waiting for a pause is missing an opportunity.

[retread]

I've been thinking about this comment ever since you said it. I think you're on to something, but at this point it would be nice for a slight pause. Though waiting for a pause is missing an opportunity.

This episode reminds me of April 2020 after the covid low. I was slow to jump in (like now) because I was convinced it would drop as soon as I got in. That is exactly what happened several times this year before June. It was starting to look good, so I added more, and it immediately dropped

[nasa1974]

The "S" fund finished at 0.22%. I'll take that every day.

[tsptalk]

The "S" fund finished at 0.22%. I'll take that every day.

That would be more than +50% for the year. :D

[TommyIV]

The S-fund is on track to record its fifth straight day of gains today. The last time that happened was a six day stretch of gains between July 27th, 2022, through August 3rd, 2022. In those six days the S-fund gained 6.97%.

In the last four days the S-fund is up 5.47%, and the DWCPF, the index the S-fund mimics, is up an additional 0.75% intraday today.

[nasa1974]

Go "S" fund. Still 6 figures down from my high in November 2021.

[TommyIV]

Will the 200-day EMA protect the S-fund price?

Today the DWCPF (S-fund) lost 1.55%. Leading up to today, everyone invested in the S-fund has enjoyed the ride. The top 100 2023 returns among TSP Talk AutoTracker members are all 100% invested in the S-fund. But were today's losses a warning sign that the January climb its coming to its end? There will be a lot of catalysts for price movement the rest of this week with many earnings to come and the FOMC meeting that finishes Wednesday.

It is pretty clear that the FOMC will raise rates by 0.25% on Wednesday, this will the eighth straight FOMC meeting where rates were raised but the second in a row where the amount is decreased. What will get the market moving is what Jerome Powell has to say in the press conference that follows. Inflation is calming down along with the economy, so it seems the Fed has so far done their job. The worry is what will happen if they let off the brake. Despite wrongfully diagnosing the first signs of high inflation as transitory, they are now questioning whether the decline in inflation is also transitory; this would mean there is a need to continue tightening monetary policy.

Currently, more than 28% of allocations are in the S-fund among non-premium TSP Talk AutoTracker users. That makes it the most popular of the TSP stock funds. But that is down from 34% at this time last year. Members are finding it difficult to trust this market with the action of 2022 still in the rear-view mirror. One of the technical advantages that might bring peace to those invested and to those who have recently been buying is the 200-day EMA. The DWCPF (S-fund) traded below its 200-day EMA for the entirety of 2022. Now it has closed above it for the sixth straight trading session. If it can continue to remain above this moving average price, I think more investors will be willing to jump in.

57125
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24DWCPF&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&i=t8230541007c&a=412607281&r=1675114136110

[JTH]

Yea I'd love me some S-Fund January gains, problem is, by the time I'm ready to go in, it's ready to go out :)

Seriously, I do like that the smaller caps are less tied to the USD exchange rate since they have less overseas exposure. I think if we had more IFT's I'd be willing to take more risk, if I were 20 years younger, I'd be buying with a fistful of dollars.

[tsptalk]

Boom! The S-fund is quickly nearing the summer highs.

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2023/tsp-020223c.gif

[nasa1974]

Let's hope it doesn't follow suite and fall to the October 2022 low. :banana:

[Bullitt]

From Lowry's


Recent improvement in small-cap price indexes has led to gains in various measures of internal market strength, but thus far that progress has been inconclusive. Lowry’s OCO Segmented Adv-Dec Lines offer perspective - while large-cap breadth approaches an upside break, mid- and small-caps remain in downtrends.

Ideally, breakouts in both the OCO Mid- and Small-Cap Adv-Dec Lines above their respective August 2022 highs would confirm a market trend change to the upside. These observations reinforce the idea of the “mega-cap mirage,” which may be prematurely projecting the illusion of a new bull market, as it is historically small-cap stocks that lead the charge from major bottoms. However, if smaller-cap stocks continue to rise, and the Lowry indicators change course, the weight of evidence could shift in favor of an improbable long-term advance.

https://www.lowryresearch.com/

[TommyIV]

Wow, after two negative reversals in a row, the DWCPF (S-fund) finally rallied through the day, well it gave back some in the last 15 minutes. I was really looking for the chart to fall more to test that 50-day and 200-day crossover price before jumping into the S-fund. From a technical standpoint, today's rally was unexpected for me. It makes me wonder if the reversal will come tomorrow or if the bulls really do have the upper hand in the middle of the summer.

Maybe I should have paid better attention to the seasonality chart at the bottom of the Market Commentary (https://www.tsptalk.com/comments.php). It saw this coming.

The S-fund is likely to receive a return around 1.7% for today.

58350

[tsptalk]

Watch the dollar on Wednesday. It looks like it could bounce back and make Tuesday's rally a trap, although it feels like the bulls are taking back momentum.

[TommyIV]

What's happening on the S-fund chart. Is this a Cup and Handle Pattern?

58399

[tsptalk]

I'd say yes. A smaller one so any breakout would be commensurate with the size of the C&H, but it looks good for the short-term if it plays out as they tend to do.

[retread]

One could argue there is a cup and handle on TNX as well. Since March DWCPF and TNX look similar with a large cup and handle pattern evident on both. Strange.

[tsptalk]

The S-fund is in an interesting situation with a double bottom at the 200-day EMA where we saw two positive reversal days in that area, but there's also a clear bear flag with the 50-day EMA looming above as possible resistance.

There's open gaps above and below.

I think this may end up bearish but a run up to 1775 - 1800 could still occur. If it can get above 1800, then the bull case gets more credible.

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2023/tsp-082823b.gif

[jonfresno]

To paraphrase Weatherweenie, is the S fund ever allowed to not go down anymore??

Also, does anyone know where you can get some fundamental data on this index? I can find P/Es for S&P 500 and a few others, but I can't find it for the completion index.

Fascinates me how this fund hit around 2400 over a year ago, then lost close to 40% of its value last year, and is currently sitting about 30% from those highs.

[tsptalk]

There are a few completion index type of funds that are all basically the same. Here's some limited info on VXF (Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund):

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VXF?p=VXF

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VXF/profile?p=VXF

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VXF/holdings?p=VXF

[jonfresno]

Thanks Tom, I appreciate it!


There are a few completion index type of funds that are all basically the same. Here's some limited info on VXF (Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund):

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VXF?p=VXF

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VXF/profile?p=VXF

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VXF/holdings?p=VXF

[Bullitt]

Fascinates me how this fund hit around 2400 over a year ago, then lost close to 40% of its value last year, and is currently sitting about 30% from those highs.

The rich keep getting richer. This allows them to buy companies with new tech before they can go public or become profitable. Turnover on the Vanguard extended market fund (similar to DJW4500) is 11.3% compared to 2.1% for the Vanguard 500 fund.

Below was from a few months ago, but I doubt much has changed besides NVDA taking more of the market.


Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia alone are responsible for more than half of the index’s gains this year, with Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Tesla contributing another 34 percent. Taking these companies out of the equation, the S&P 500 would have returned a meager 1.88 percent this year and no one would be talking about a bull market right now.

https://www.statista.com/chart/30219/main-contributors-to-s-p-500-gains-in-2023/

While C fund has stability, S fund is revolving door with stocks getting dropped on a monthly basis.

Turnover on the Vanguard extended market fund (similar to DJW4500 but only has 3,000 stocks) is 11.3% compared to 2.1% for the Vanguard 500 fund. Add in an extra 1,500 small caps and that turnover is guaranteed to be higher.

See also below for sector breakdowns and PE ratios as of 2021. Trailing P/E at the time was 74, P/B was 2.98, and P/S was 21 - far from being a bargain.

https://assets-global.website-files.com/60f8038183eb84c40e8c14e9/613422439b14d099a5d278de_wilshire-4500-fact-sheet.pdf
(https://assets-global.website-files.com/60f8038183eb84c40e8c14e9/613422439b14d099a5d278de_wilshire-4500-fact-sheet.pdf)
Interesting bit on the index methodology below.

https://assets-global.website-files.com/63e3e50fdce0bcaff7861530/649ca1bb75a36cec4ef397d6_Wilshire-4500-methodology.pdf

Also, I wouldn't worry about P/E's if you looking for a market timing indicator. It's useless in 2024. Back when Ben Graham wrote his first editions it meant something but since his later editions in the 1970's even he said his methods of valuation no longer worked.

According to the Schiller PE, the stock market has been in a state of overvaluation since around 1980. In 2008 it touched the "average" PE, the closest it's come to an undervaluation signal since.

[tsptalk]

The bottom of the open gap created on May 5 can technically be the closing price from May 4, so there may be some wiggle room below from the original way I drew the gap.

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2023/tsp-102523b.gif

[tsptalk]

Small caps are battling back from the slow start and yesterday's big decline. The problem is, they (Russell 2000 and S-fund) haven't filled their of their recent gaps yet.

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2023/tsp-110723b.gif

[nasa1974]

Either they get filled quickly or fad away into the past. I hope for the second choice.

[tsptalk]

Two small gaps opened overhead while one large gap gets filled (blue).

It might hold as support - might not, but that's one gap we don't have to worry about anymore. The others? :blink:

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2024/tsp-010324b.gif

[tsptalk]

The S-fund is messing with the gaps ...

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2024/tsp-010924a.gif

[TommyIV]

The DWCPF (S-fund) is back into negative territory today after reaching a 0.4% at the TSP trade deadline. The C and I-fund index/ETF are off their highs but still holding onto gains.

Click Here For Real Time Quotes of the C, S, I and F-fund Tracking Indices. (https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001XK_fBt_f8enkR-evgsyVlZgPOhuAVaHrBdPmg7lU5Y5FRgva2efrtcvN8vBVJkHD Syzn06FO0RJXUO3Dgx9i7eSuEm5VtbZwCZYuieUccydg_PlK7K vwZ2nD0h6mKzXU1n6R0xooPqgtVuVhnJ4n_eWTbtgFYfvvLD0Y zotKMwA6A3tKuHBzaY1D-edk8SIRdYHgGpp3MSN46Vv0MI2gxQKTwsBI0t1I&c=9SC4QfU64POzllsd2LXDou-83JN3jWFbTEJifkVryELqkH-XkRIGmg==&ch=E-mNxprNfPCSjyda1_pKFvBXPPFBdo28NVD83M_UesPGICduDC9n fw==)