Gold and the Market

[biggdog1]

I just checked the U.S. Mint website for coin collecting and noticed that ALL the GOLD coins minted for this year are already sold out. I have been buying gold proof coins for a while and this is one of the earliest sell dates to mind. Gold will more than likely pass $700 per ounce this month and could be well on it's way to a $1000 before the end of the year. What is this telling me? The dollar is going to get weaker through the end of the year and that the I-Fund could well earn 30-40% by year's end. I wish I had Bambi's water dish full of it and I would be one happy puppy !!!

[tsptalk]

I like going off topic... :p
Here's an explanation on what impacts the gold price: http://www.cupel.com/gold_price.html

Here are charts on the price of gold:
http://www.usagold.com/gold-price.html

Looks like a 5 yr bull market to me... given the inflation data combined with the fact that inflation keeps creeping up after the Fed finishes with rate-hikes, I think there's still several months to go at the minimum, and probably a year to a year and a half at the long end. It all hinges on how aggressive the Fed is going to be and how quickly they can clamp down on inflationary pressures. They've been ineffective thus far, and there's no reason to believe that will change anytime soon.

Tom, I share your concern with a gold bull and a stock bull coexisting... however, it has happened in the past. Gold went up about 10% in 2003 while the stock market took off. Interestingly, after the ugly inflation data when the PPI was released, gold sold off and bonds rallied. More proof that once you think this stuff is easy to figure out... it isn't. ;)

Mike,

It just goes to show you how much speculation is in the price of gold right now. Oil as well, for that matter.

Tom

[Mike]

Speculation is the cornerstone of every market. Even long-term investors are speculating to some degree. It all boils down to what you *think* will happen during the time you are in the market. If you think a company is going to tank, you short its stock. If you think its profits / earnings will outperform the estimates, you go long. The same thing applies to the overall market and the economy. Economy going in the toilet? Short the indices or go to bonds. Economic boom coming? Go long with everything you have.

Whether your horizon is one year, one month, a decade... it's all guesswork.

As for today - gold, oil, and the market all rose strongly. Interesting.

[tsptalk]

Gold up big today. Good call Mike.

[Mike]

And since nobody ever listens to me, I'm sure nobody here profited from it either. :D

Case in point: I didn't listen to myself for awhile and waited 'til the middle of trading on Friday to take a position in GLD - the stupid ETF was almost perfectly flat after that. :p

[tsptalk]

Gold's up another $27 so far today. Now you're just showing off Mike :)

...Ouch for inflation concerns.

[Mike]

Gold's up another $27 so far today. Now you're just showing off Mike :)
I think it'll run up close to its old high again. The fundamentals are there. We have a pervasive fear of conflict with Iran over their nuclear program, and just for kicks, the North Koreans threatened nuclear retaliation if we attack them pre-emptively. Then there's the Israeli-Palestinian situation spiraling out of control. If these weren't enough, I believe that inflation data going forward will continue to be at least as bad as what we've seen thus far (note: I don't think that it's really "bad", but the Fed does, and that's all that matters in this discussion, since investors care about the Fed policy).

Why will inflation continue to be a problem? Simple. The government's own calculations all but guarantee it. Excluding home prices while including rent? That should tell you what you need to know - we saw none of the inflationary run-up that should've run parallel to the overheating real estate market of the past five years. We are going to see it now - with mortgage interest rates climbing back toward historical norms, fewer people will buy houses and more will opt to rent instead. That will drive rental prices up which will show up in the inflation data. There's also continued high commodity and energy prices. Yes, commodities sold off awhile ago, but they're climbing back up. These things will work their way into the overall price level.

Since the market looks ahead about 6 months, I figure gold's run will end right around the last Fed rate hike, since inflation seems to lag the Fed by a few months (so when they're done hiking, inflation will also be "done" a few months later - and gold's usefulness as a hedge will be at an end - unless we go to war with Iran, but that's another issue).

This could all be just a bunch of hooey and mindless speculation, but I don't think that it is. FWIW, a high jobs number Friday sends gold into the stratosphere.

[Mike]

GLD opened at $58 on 6/29/06.
GLD closed at $63.81 yesterday.

+10% in less than two weeks.

[FundSurfer]

Bet on Gold Not Funny Money article by Rich Dad author (http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/richricher/7810)

Actually, I agree with him and think this actually points us toward I-fund more and more.

[Quips]

Eh, gold.

A look at the ETF fund in commodities -- i shares -- show the weighting of gold to be fairly low. Oil, one the other hand, has a very large weighting, about 75%.

Recently another analyst on msn.com --Junak is his name, I believe -- has changed his investment strategy by with a very bullish stand on gold. It is a big shift for him. Along with his recommendations is a record of his past performance, and supposedly he has greatly outperformed the indices.

There is another analyst on msn.com who is also bearish, but his name escapes me.


The analyst I respect most is Bob Brinker, and as of now he is not bearish.

For those worried about investment returns, even now one of the better choices is simply to make extra payments on the mortgage. The interest paid on the loan is front-loaded to the extreme. And figuring the interest due compared to the principle is a real eye opener -- you won't get that kind of return anywhere ... anywhere within the law that is.

[Fivetears]

Gold Hits Record $900 an Ounce
NEW YORK - Gold futures briefly rose above $900 an ounce Friday for the first time as high oil prices, a weak dollar and fears of a U.S. recession led uneasy investors to keep buying the precious metal. An ounce of gold for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange jumped $6.50 to $900.10 in morning trading, an all-time high and a psychologically important milestone. Gold later slipped to $898.70 an ounce on profit-taking but remained in record territory.
http://www.newsday.com/business/nationworld/wire/sns-ap-gold-at-900,0,1270731.story

[Bullitt]

According to PermaGoldBull Dennis Gartman,

"It appears that the dollar is strengthening, and it appears that gold has a good deal to fall."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a4LXGWKHVYHQ

[Asylum]

Gold at $992/oz this morning...

[Bullitt]

Looks like the world is slowly becoming more and more bullish towards gold. The Gold Bugs really can't complain because they've been waiting for this day their entire lives. Here's my question- Will they get caught up in the euphoria or will they cash in their profits?

I think they're going to get washed away in the bullishness.

No way, absolutely no way I'd be a buyer of gold at these levels, especially physical gold. And to those who own physical gold- I always thought I'd sell my baseball cards for a profit, but when you have something you can look at and hold, it makes it much more difficult to unload. Don't fall in love.

Gold isn't going to $5,000 either, not in this lifetime. Alleged Pied Pipers of Armageddon have an agenda, meaning, they probably bought starting at the 300-400 level and want you to buy it at these levels.

[Bullitt]

The gold bandwagon got washed away in bullishness, but the strong hands will step up in the gold market as soon as a few more stops get blown. Don't be surprised when additional nations announce gold purchases in the near future.

Buying at 1200 and watching a market go to 1000 is how 'Long Term Investors' are born.

[Birchtree]

Simondale88,

The stock market is actually fairly stable at the moment - view a chart of the VIX and watch the trend lines. Bullitt is right about gold. I bought 15 ounces back in 1980 at that peak - but I never plan to sell my coins. I like to handle them too much and boy are they beauties.

[fedgolfer]

... as a taxpayer I would be pissed off if the Fed didn't unload a lot of gold to India at the last high. That was a prime opportunity to reallocate Fed resources and get cash back into the US markets. You know they did, they invented that play. :)

[Bullitt]

You would have known by now. Besides, nobody knows how much Gold the US has. For all we know, Fort Knox could be empty.

[Bullitt]

The 50 DMA is fast approaching and we can almost guarantee a breach to shake out the ones who bought when India announced that it's been a buyer. Buy orders to add have been set below the 50, with the highest just near 101-102.

7592
www.stockcharts.com (http://www.stockcharts.com)

[James48843]

..Fort Knox could be empty.

Ssshhhhh......it's supposed to be a secret...


7593

[James48843]

During the 1970s a wealthy businessman named Edward Durell alleged that most of the gold in Fort Knox had been secretly moved out of Fort Knox by President Johnson in the late 1960s in an attempt to keep the gold price suppressed at $35 per troy ounce (the price at which it was fixed under the gold standard). His evidence was mostly circumstantial and anecdotal, so it's far from definite, but it goes without saying that his claims were suppressed and that reporters covering his allegations were soon out of a job.

In 1982 President Reagan set up a gold commission to investigate the possibility of returning to a gold-backed currency. His commission's investigation concluded that the US Treasury now owns no gold, that it is now owned by the Federal Reserve - a private bank and non-government entity.

[grandma]

teknobucks (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/member.php?u=578) was a great believer in the conspiracy that went on when The Bankers had their organizational meeting out on Devil's Island - (I know that's not the name of the island, but it fits... & I can't think of the name.) Anyway, the film that 350Z posted from YouTube this afternoon addresses this along with multitudes of other information.... the meeting, the bankers, the illicit Federal Reserve, and I imagine by the time I get thru the rest of the 90 minutes I have left on it, the different contributers will have given more information on who owns not only us, but us through being the owner of the gold. The book documenting the island meeting is one that never goes off the market.... ? ? Island.
whatever went with teknobucks?

[nnuut]

Tybee Island!!:D I think? NO it's JEKYLL Island!!
That's it,

The Creature from Jekyll Island
How It REALLY Happened
http://www.pushhamburger.com/index_1.gif



by G. Edward Griffin

Excerpts from Chapter One specifically addressing
the creation of the Federal Reserve System.
http://www.pushhamburger.com/jeckel.htm

[burrocrat]

... I bought 15 ounces ...

that explains a lot, just one ounce short of a pound

[tsptalk]

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/121109a.gif

[James48843]

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/121109a.gif


All these signals SCREAMING that we're about to take a huge tumble in the markets, and I go and do a stupid thing like move everything into stocks yesterday.

Dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb me.

I only have one move left for the month. and I KNOW I am about to get clobbered.......

[tsptalk]

I'm still betting that we have a little time. It's such a good time of year to be in the market - especially with the indices up 25% to 30% and fund managers under invested trying to pad their portolios with winning stocks for their annual reports. After December though...

[alevin]

Tybee Island!!:D I think? NO it's JEKYLL Island!!
That's it,

The Creature from Jekyll Island
How It REALLY Happened

http://www.pushhamburger.com/index_1.gif
<B>




by G. Edward Griffin

</B>



Excerpts from Chapter One specifically addressing
the creation of the Federal Reserve System.
http://www.pushhamburger.com/jeckel.htm


I've been to Jekyll Island-a week of special training back in 2000. It's an incredibly beautiful peaceful place, no cars allowed except on a few oyster-shell paths/roads-20mph. I said to myself I'd like to go back someday for a vacation but haven't yet.

But yes, its where the Roosevelts and Vanderbilts and all the Railroad Age tycoons and families used to spend their vacations together in one humongous 3-story Island hotel-style residence, kind of a NewYork millionaire-family co-op deal back in the 1880s or so. Other guests by invite only back then. I'm sure they came up with many many lucrative shady deals among themselves over cigars while their families played.

[Show-me]

I've been to Jekyll Island-a week of special training back in 2000. It's an incredibly beautiful peaceful place, no cars allowed except on a few oyster-shell paths/roads-20mph. I said to myself I'd like to go back someday for a vacation but haven't yet.

But yes, its where the Roosevelts and Vanderbilts and all the Railroad Age tycoons and families used to spend their vacations together in one humongous 3-story Island hotel-style residence, kind of a NewYork millionaire-family co-op deal back in the 1880s or so. Other guests by invite only back then. I'm sure they came up with many many lucrative shady deals among themselves over cigars while their families played.

IMO, no different today.

[Gumby]

7601

Oh yeah, Jekyll is a nice place. Almost paradise :)

[Bullitt]

Let's not forget that when gold does break the 50 DMA, chartists and other trend followers who bought when India made their announcement will bail out, driving it down further. Retail investors will once again be brainwashed into thinking the dollar is going to the moon and deflation is the new hot trade. I still expect additional nations to diversify a few % of their reserves into gold by late 2009/early 2010.

Good chart Tom. I highly doubt too many retail investors will buy until gold appears 'safe' again though.

It seems like yesterday that the retail specs were dollar bears- now they're showing net long! (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=245112&postcount=61)

[Bullitt]

More anti-gold propaganda.

Some of the biggest buyers of gold may be sending the strongest signal to sell it, if past performance is indicative of future results.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arhlK7_y34Mg&pos=5

[Bullitt]

I'm out. The China commodity story is completely out of control. Let's be honest, we've all seen this before.

http://www.etftalk.com/forum/showpost.php?p=3256&postcount=142

[Bullitt]

Gold is sitting in the 'buy zone' but the internals don't look right now. I'll leave the buying to the gold bugs out there. The gold bull/inflation trade needs time to cool off- could be weeks, maybe months.

[Bullitt]

HUI made a major breakdown this week but gold is pulling closer to that weekly uptrend line. Meanwhile, the gold bugs are still trying to brainwash the masses into thinking we're one step away from hyperinflation.

[Boghie]

HUI made a major breakdown this week but gold is pulling closer to that weekly uptrend line. Meanwhile, the gold bugs are still trying to brainwash the masses into thinking we're one step away from hyperinflation.

Bullitt,

We are probably significantly closer to deflation than inflation...

Imagine where we would be had the FED not stepped in with their black helicopters. We had deflation anyway. Imangine where we would be.

Deflation ain't good. Gold doesn't help in deflation.

[Bullitt]

Yeah it wouldn't be pretty, but gold was good to me, very good to me. Most will be taxed at LT cap gains in 2010 tax season. I think we're going down the deflation route here also as evidenced by the dollar bull. It's just kind of funny how fast the gold bull burned out like kindling.

[Bullitt]

Gold bulls had better man up and do the buying when everyone else is bearish. I have a very difficult time believing the gold propagandists when I look at the chart of GLD over the past 3 months. GLD sitting on support right now.

It appears the dollar is now once again the safety trade.

[tsptalk]

It appears the dollar is now once again the safety trade.
If I remember correctly, Nenner said the dollar's bounce will peak in February, as will gold (which I found ineresting that both would peak).

[Bullitt]

On an interview last week with Pimm Fox, Charles Nenner said the big trade right now is short US treasuries. He also said that we can forget the Gold for many months and that Goldman Sachs would show a bottom in the first few weeks of Feb 2010. When Pimm asked what month he thinks Gold will bottom, Nenner said he didn't know because he wasn't prepared for that question. He said that since there are aren't many opportunities for long term investors at this point, he didn't have his turn dates ready for the interview. GS may be making higher highs here.

If anything, Nenner's interviews are hilarious if you ever get the chance to listen to one of them.

As for Gold, a link from a metals analyst:


Now is a good time to short gold, but probably a better time to short gold would have been back in November, when it was $200/oz higher. If you look at inflation, you see inflation's actually quite low; core inflation is actually decreasing. So we don't have an inflation problem here. Plus, we have 10 percent unemployment and a large output gap still in the economy. So those three things taken together would dictate that the Federal Reserve should be cutting rates to well below zero, probably something like -4 or -5 percent, which obviously they can't do. http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/features-and-interviews/1/1984-brian-nick-time-to-short-gold.html

[tsptalk]

B -
Do you have a link to that new Nenner interview? It's not in the link you gave, is it?

thanks

[Bullitt]

I wish there was one. He was interviewed by Pimm Fox on Bloomberg Radio last week and it might be somewhere on bloomberg's on demand site, that's about it. There is, however, a link to an earlier interview on techticker where he says a some of the same stuff:

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/413426/Charles-Nenner:-Stick-With-Cash,-Bond-Investors-in-for-%22Big-Trouble%22

[wwwtractor]

http://www.charlesnenner.com/ Free trial subscription available.

More links including radio interview on delicious below.

[Bullitt]

Found it. :laugh: I love listening to this guy. I think he's good but he's also very entertaining. Fast forward to 17:05.

ETFs, Toyota Recall, Muni Bonds, Berkshire Stock: Taking Stock
Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Deborah Fuhr of BlackRock Advisors Ltd. in London talks with Bloomberg's Pimm Fox about exchange-traded funds. Scott Silverman of McCarter & English LLP discusses the recall by Toyota Motor Corp. Charles Nenner of Charles Nenner Research Center looks at market cycles. http://www.bloomberg.com/tvradio/podcast/takingstock.html

[tsptalk]

Thanks!

[tsptalk]

Interesting: The only thing he is short right now is the EFA (our I-fund), although he didn't seem to describe it as the EAFE as the interviewer tried to suggest, but more of a play on just Portugal, Italy and Greece -which didn't make sense.

[wwwtractor]

It sounded to me that he said the Euro would be going up until May, 2010 in the radio interview.

[tsptalk]

It sounded to me that he said the Euro would be going up until May, 2010 in the radio interview.
The euro would go up, or the dollar? I'll have to relisten, but I doubt he would be short the EFA if he thought the euro was going to go up (which means the dollar would be going down), although I recall that he said in December (http://www.madhedgefundtrader.biz/Charles_Nenner.html), that the dollar would peak in February so that would mean a rally in the euro.

[Bullitt]

To all the gold bugs who believe gold is in this giant secular bull market and think that it's safe to hold on until we get this nice big blowoff top; you can't fool yourself. This is how buy and holders are born. I believe that Gold already had it's blowoff top when it went up some 10% on news that some island country I can't even remember the name of anymore bought.

In any market, what defines a secular bull market anyway? A market is bullish until it isn't anymore. Simple as that.

Good post here.


Ok, this one is for all you bull market geniuses out there who have been buying the SPDR Gold Trust (symbol: GLD), the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (symbol: GDX), and the i-Shares Silver Trust (symbol: SLV) all the way down and since they peaked in mid January.http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogsp...d-gdx-slv.html (http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/2010/02/did-you-sell-gld-gdx-slv.html)

[Bullitt]

China doesn't consider gold a very good long term investment. Could they be talking it down while they accumulate?


Gold, on the other hand, is “not a great investment” with a 30-year horizon, the authors quote Gang as saying: “It is, in fact, impossible for gold to become a major investment channel for China’s foreign exchange reserves. I have 1,000 tones now, and even if I doubled that holding, according to current prices, that would be about $30 billion.”http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2010/03/09/china-disses-gold-not-a-great-investment-long-term/?mod=rss_BOLBlog

[JTH]

China doesn't consider gold a very good long term investment. Could they be talking it down while they accumulate?

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2010/03/09/china-disses-gold-not-a-great-investment-long-term/?mod=rss_BOLBlog


I'll add my 2 cents. Venezuela Central Bank to Increase Gold Purchases (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-05/venezuela-central-bank-to-increase-gold-purchases-khan-says.html)

"The central bank, which has about $16 billion of its $30.6 billion of reserves in gold, purchased 1.08 tons of gold from domestic mines in the first two months of this year after buying just 2 tons in all of 2009,"

[Viva_La_Migra]

China doesn't consider gold a very good long term investment. Could they be talking it down while they accumulate?

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2010/03/09/china-disses-gold-not-a-great-investment-long-term/?mod=rss_BOLBlog
Short answer. Yes.

[JTH]

Be on the lookout for Gold. We have an increase in volume today, 3 closes above the previous swing high, 1 close above the 2nd previous swing high, 5 days of higher highs & higher lows, and 5 higher closes.

8908

[Show-me]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LvZT7gZuHY&playnext_from=TL&videos=MIWRUWDhnu0&feature=sub

[Show-me]

This gold and silver manipulation is like out of a movie. You need to follow up on this and know what the government is allowing to happen all over the world.

[Show-me]

#1 Whistleblower Andrew Maguire accuses JPMC of silver price manipulation

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9bU0r6JP4s&feature=player_embedded

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/... (http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/...)

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/former-goldman-commoditi... (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/former-goldman-commoditi...)

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/former-goldman-commoditi... (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/former-goldman-commoditi...)

http://www.marketforceanalysis.com/Published%20Articles_2... (http://www.marketforceanalysis.com/Published%20Articles_2...)

http://mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72068?oid=... (http://mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72068?oid=...)

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/jpmorgan_chase_stor... (http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/jpmorgan_chase_story_in_uk_DsMN4PnXFoQG5KdevIsQ7N)

[JTH]

6 Part Interview with Bill Murphy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGFuN05z-JU&feature=related (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGFuN05z-JU&feature=related)http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Jw3HYP7cOg&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKNAXPUvm6o&feature=related http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifP_XNd9WQg&feature=related (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifP_XNd9WQg&feature=related)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aolxchAHpZU&feature=related http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HOhGCeaEFbA&feature=related

(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifP_XNd9WQg&feature=related)

[Bullitt]

Buy gold to protect from inflation- If there is inflation. The bond market disagrees. Of course, those with agendas, aka buy and hold gold, will surely disagree.


While the debt helped the global economy recover from its first recession since World War II, yields show bond investors aren’t troubled that the growth will spur inflation. Consumer prices excluding food and energy costs rose 1.5 percent in February from a year earlier in the 30 countries that form the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the smallest gain on record.http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-26/bond-traders-declare-inflation-dead-after-yields-fall-update2-.html

[Bullitt]

Gold- Stick a fork in it. Miners are diverging and just broke their uptrend line while Gold is sitting on uptrend support and may even make a double top when the technical selling starts. The fact that you've got guys on TV talking up a storm about the world not having physical gold is a sign of panic buying. Safe havens are the US dollar and US treasury bonds.

[Bullitt]

Amazing that anybody would buy gold at these levels. Hey, anybody see that insider (Robert Allison) at FCX who dumped $1.6 million in shares in the open market last week? His last open market buy occurred in October 2008, right near the bottom of miners.
Check this link- http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=FCX+Insider+Transactions

Gold is not immune to what lies ahead. This whole entire market is broken. I wonder if the FCC stepped up and canceled this trade below in the AH Friday. A nice 70% discount in the blink of the eye.

10135

[alevin]

Amazing that anybody would buy gold at these levels. Hey, anybody see that insider (Robert Allison) at FCX who dumped $1.6 million in shares in the open market last week? His last open market buy occurred in October 2008, right near the bottom of miners.
Check this link- http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=FCX+Insider+Transactions

Gold is not immune to what lies ahead. This whole entire market is broken. I wonder if the FCC stepped up and canceled this trade below in the AH Friday. A nice 70% discount in the blink of the eye.

10135

I took a look at the link. Trying to see what you'r seeing, but not. The insider activity link now starts the record in Nov08 when he disposed non-open market. Everything he's done since then was acquire-nonopen market, up through June this year.

When I look at the AH, a few minutes earlier somebody bought (sold)? at the same exact price-just missing the 1 in the front-same # shares.

seller/buyer changed their mind-tried to /buy/sell at same price as a few minutes earlier? Looks like a misprint on the price,-the misprint got cancelled?

I'm long in GDXJ and have been since Dec 09. trying to hang in long enough to sell at longterm cap gains price. hope I can make it.

[Bullitt]

Alevin,

You're seeing exactly what I'm seeing but the difference is that since I once owned FCX I used to follow the insider transactions. (The Yahoo finance just missed going back far enough.) I like the insider transactions more than the voodoo charts.

Here's his purchase of 20,000 shares on 10/28/2008.: http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=5945134
According to the SEC: Code (P) is open market purchase or private purchase.

When I follow insiders, I don't bother with companies like GOOG because they pay employees in stock options so it's very convoluted. I watch many other mining stocks as well and the amount of insider selling the past 3 months has been unbelievable. I don't recall any of those companies having too many open market buys in 2010.

Good luck on the LT cap gains. It's good to see that there actually still are 'investors' out there.

[alevin]

Thanks Bullitt! I checked out the 10Kwizard site. which level do you subscribe to? I've been trying to find a site where I can get access to these kinds of documents-MarketWatch shows when something has been filed but their links don't take you to the actual document filed. erg. looks like this is what I've been looking for all along.

I am forced to be an "investor" in the brokerage and Roth brokerage accounts-funds too small to be paying out commissions regularly, why I do a heck of a lot of research before I buy anything, and why I'm still sitting about 50% in cash at this point, after selling BP for a loss earlier. Hoping the GDXJ gains will offset the losses by the time I sell, cover the commissions and still show some after-tax profit.

other few holdings are just muddling along up and down in trading range, upper end at this point.

[Bullitt]

Look at the top holdings in GDXJ and then once a week, go to iStockanalyst, or yahoo finance (easier to use) and look up the insider transactions for each and every individual stock in the index. Make sure you look for open market buys/sells, not options or awards.

As for 10k Wizard, I wish I could subscribe, but I don't. Go to iStockanalyst and type in your ticker by quote. Then go to insider SEC Filings. I usually go to yahoo finance first though.

As for cash, I'm sitting on a bit myself. I hope these site help you in your research.

[alevin]

Alevin,

Here's his purchase of 20,000 shares on 10/28/2008.: http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=5945134
According to the SEC: Code (P) is open market purchase or private purchase.


Nother question for clarity-private purchase (P) means the same thing as open market purchase (P)?

[Bullitt]

Correct. You're looking for a "P" for purchase or "S" for sale. These pertain to the individual account, not stock options or awards.

Check page 6 at this link: www.sec.gov/about/forms/form4data.pdf (http://www.sec.gov/about/forms/form4data.pdf)