How can you deny the I fund? [Archive]

CPT_Shane

04-28-2006, 08:53 PM

Show-me

04-28-2006, 09:04 PM

No argument here. Some have a hard time accepting a good thing. Some like playing the game. Some don't like the higher risk of USD and equities all in one. And some just don't know what to do.

If you have rode the I fund all year, your a good investor. Me..........I'm still trying to define myself. Trader, investor, amateur, or just a lucky duck.

Good luck.

Soldat

04-28-2006, 09:41 PM

The I fund, just as any equity, has high risk. Some believe Japan to still be a bear market. If Japan turns to the downward and sets a new low, you will not be sitting pretty in the palm trees. And depending on falling Japanese Export and US import profit margins, that might just happen. What do you think happens when the dollar falls? JP stocks are already panicking, they are losing whole digit % profits daily. And Europe, I am bullish on Europe but even then, Iran will hit home. Iran will spark a world war. Iran is what? Six times larger than Iraq?

mlk_man

04-28-2006, 09:54 PM

Hey Shane, are you really a Capt? If so, we're in deeeeeeeep trouble................

Spaf

04-28-2006, 11:27 PM

The I-Fund

The I-fund and the S-fund have the most risk (volatile). Remember TSP is a retirement account. Participants are in various stages, and some don't like the risk of the I-fund, totally. Thus you have diversification such as the Life Cycle funds.

In the last two years the I-fund has done great. However, over the 10 year summary of TSP annual return, the I-fund is only slightly better than the G-fund.

The I-fund is difficult to monitor. It doesn't have it's own chart. And really has a three edge sord: price, dollar, and fair evaluation.

The I-fund is a good offset to the other funds of US stocks, in diversification.

Remember, participants are in various stages of their retirement perspective. Some need more equities and growth, some need less risk for a secure income. It all depends on the individual and their investment strategy!

Rgds, and be careful!....................:) ......................Spaf

Birchtree

04-29-2006, 10:58 AM

Read the last Birchtree account talk post - hints from Bill Miller. This will give you an idea of the risk adventure and the time elements. This fund may end up doing a side ways consolidation for a year or so and that is fine as long as one is doing a dollar cost averaging buying approach. Who knows, it may run for another year and not look back. This government is in no hurry to rally the dollar - exports were up 12% and will continue to climb. I own an international in another retirement account and plan to stick with it on a dollar cost averaging basis - so if it trends sideways for a period of time that allows more share accumulation. I've been doing that with the C fund for quite sometime. You take your chances - and that's how to increase your balances.

mlk_man

04-29-2006, 11:01 AM

Can a moderator pleaseeeeee put this thread in the proper forum.

Thanks!

M_M

CPT_Shane

05-01-2006, 08:03 AM

Mlk_Man,

I see you're a positive guy (this is the point where I cough.)

FYI I was a SSG promotable before I was a CPT, and...

I have made money hand over fist (it's almost embarrassing really) since I shifted my entire balance and allotment into the I fund about 8 or so months ago.

I can shift both my balance and my allotment into another fund at any time if I feel the market and the fund is going to start to fall. BUT that hasn't happened yet--so I'll sit right where I'm at--very happily until the "financial winds" shift.

You guys are making it sound as if I am stuck in the fund for life. I never let fear of what "might" happen control my financial investments concerning the TSP.

Good luck.

Shane

mlk_man

05-01-2006, 08:32 AM

Congratulations on all fronts!

Let's see if I have this correct. An officer and a gentleman with money.........http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y216/mlk_man/Smileys%20Bubbles/MY_DATE49.gif

SkyPilot

05-01-2006, 08:36 AM

Is the I fund really riskier? Seems relative to me, as the G fund risks little growth and inflation creep (safest fund?). I define risk as having determined which is the most profitable present position, then playing a hunch for a better position. Right now, going to G fund, (or even C fund) would be a greater risk than holding I fund for the near-mid term future. As the USD declines and the EAFE creeps up, stronger potential for the I fund.

While historically the I fund would have performed close to the G fund, this also mirrors the performance of the USD (strong), does it not? As long as the weaker USD continues, the I fund should remain strong.

roguewave

05-01-2006, 09:02 AM

This fund has gone three steps forward and one step back for nearly two years now. Why more people don't lock in on it...is beyond me.

Anyone else seeing this, or agree with this logic? I mean--it seems as though many avoid it because of higher risk, but it has clearly been the most profitable fund over the past two years, hands down. Thoughts?

Shane

Last three years and this year is shaping up to be one for the books. Good luck.

http://www.tsp.gov/rates/monthly-history.html

CPT_Shane

05-01-2006, 09:25 AM

M_M, et al,

Thanks a lot. NO, I'm happily married LOL. Thanks for thinking about it though!

Great comments everyone.

Best of luck on any TSP investments.

Shane

LA_Guy

05-01-2006, 09:30 AM

Capt Shane,
Welcome to the board. I've been actively trading I-fund for the past 3 years and it had been and will be my "steaks and eggs", * (rich man's version of bread and water). As of today, I'm even more bullish on the I-fund.
Good luck and happy trading.

FundSurfer

05-01-2006, 01:44 PM

I tend to agree with the sentiment that says, I'll get out of the fund if it begins to sour. The only problem with this philosophy is that the I-fund can and has in the past turned around hard. If foriegn stocks have a really bad day and the dollar rebounds up strong the same day, you have a double whammy negative day. We've seen negative 2% - 3% days in the I-fund.

If you have been in the fund for awhile, and have seen the gains Shane has then a 2-3% risk isn't bad. However, jumping into a fund that is hitting new highs and over due for a double whammy might not be a good idea. In this case your loss would not be off set by past gains. It is always good to look forward and not backward.

I would not describe the I-fund as a slam dunk right now. It is on a serious tear, but it is over due for correction. I've done well so far this year so I'm probably acting riskier than usual. I-fund has been doing really really well and it is hard to not be involved in the fund.

I'm watching very closely for clues to head for the exit. I'll be quick to bail out to G-fund. I may miss some gains in the I-fund, but I might also manage to avoid the double whammy.

The dollar may continue to free fall down as it did from October 2004 to end of December 2004. If it does, the I-fund will continue to be the place to be. The I-fund gained almost 11% in that quarter.

SkyPilot

05-01-2006, 02:22 PM

Fundsurfer, I agree that the I fund can deliver a crushing response to those who take it generosity for granted.

However, if one is sitting on the sidelines trying to avoid a 2-3% drop off, they created their own misfortune by missing a 4%+ run-up in April. What might they miss in May? If we are going to gain another 15-20% this year, then in retrospect, we are not that high at all. It's all relative, isn't it.

For me, as long as the Fundamental pieces are in place, I'm going to ride the rocket, and accept the correction when it comes (of course, I may ditch this strategy at any moment, for any whimsical notion).

Better to have made gains and given some back, than not to make them at all, and be the poorer for it?

FundSurfer

05-01-2006, 09:03 PM

However, if one is sitting on the sidelines trying to avoid a 2-3% drop off, they created their own misfortune by missing a 4%+ run-up in April. What might they miss in May? If we are going to gain another 15-20% this year, then in retrospect, we are not that high at all. It's all relative, isn't it.

I agree completely, but I'm a risk taker. If you are not a risk taker, you may not be willing to buy at the top. I was merely giving the other side of the coin to Shane's wondering why more people had not jumped on the train.

Personally, I see the US dollar index falling back to the 80 to 81 range. I think that foriegn stocks will still do quite well. When I begin to hear more average people talking about wanting to buy foriegn stock because of the incredible gains, it will be time to get off the train. I don't think that time is yet, but I do think we are over due for a brief cycle down.

SkyPilot

05-01-2006, 10:18 PM

Right you are!

Spaf

05-01-2006, 11:47 PM

The I - Fund

All of the funds in TSP are index funds (ex G). They are all good funds. Looking at ETF's, IShare MSCI EAFE FD, YTD% = +14.42 which is good, yet it is 38th from the top in ETF's. Brazil [EWZ] and Latin America [ILF] are close to the top, and better internationals by performance. However, they are not available at TSP. Another comparison by risk would be TSP participants themselves. Net Assets in the C-fund are 69 billion, the I-fund is 13 billion.
The I-fund is going strong right now, or is it really? Remember, it has a double edge: pricing and dollar value. To evaluate the I-fund, both variables need to be evaluated.

The fund EFA
http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b296/Spaf/EFAg.gif

The US Dollar
http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b296/Spaf/USDg.gif

To some extent a lot of funds will in some way follow the US market. And yet they offer a hedge vs blips in the US market.

No! I won't deny the I fund. I just respect it for what it is.

Regards, and be careful!...............:) ................Spaf

DSA

05-02-2006, 10:27 AM

I think Milk Man's comments about Shane being a cpt were uncalled for...that aside:

The I fund scares me, but I've maintained a position in it almost constantly the last year. What bothers me most is that some folks that are a lot more saavy than I am have pulled out or advised pulling out of international stocks lately. Still not sure what they're seeing that I don't.

What I do know for sure is that if I'd left my money 100% I fund since 12/31/06, I'd be UP several more points than I am currently after moving stuff around several times.

The I fund gains have been the only thing keeping my account moving positive since redistributing a large portion of it in the F fund.

Damn shame that my foresight isn't as good as my hindsight.

SkyPilot

05-02-2006, 10:31 AM

DSA, your voice sounds familiar...

mlk_man

05-02-2006, 10:48 AM

I think Milk Man's comments about Shane being a cpt were uncalled for...that aside:

People's interpretations of what they read on a MB never cease to amaze me. My reference to Cpt. Shane, not that it's any of your business, was in response to his posting an irrelevent thread in the member's allocation section. Nothing else. Now go read the tread again and see if that makes sense.

Thank you for your input.

BTW, it's sort of like you posting your moves in Tom's interfund transfer section.............irrelevent to the thread.

CPT_Shane

05-09-2006, 07:03 AM

Up AGAIN. Here we keep cashing in. As I said...three steps forward and one step back. It is all adding up for a banner year AGAIN!!

Ye saps who stand on the sideline...are losing money!

Shane

Show-me

05-09-2006, 07:10 AM

Up AGAIN. Here we keep cashing in. As I said...three steps forward and one step back. It is all adding up for a banner year AGAIN!!

Ye saps who stand on the sideline...are losing money!

Shane

Missing gains and losing money are not the same.:D Well done on your I Fund stand.

Dave M

05-09-2006, 09:58 AM

Yes, the I-fund is volatile. These days it is volatile to the upside but of course it does go the other way. The volatility increases the standard deviation of the expected change in value.

That means two things: 1) There is an opening for timing because the swings can be large and obvious, and 2) To buy and hold may mean holding for a longer time than in some other fund.

Both these argue against a 100% allocation, for me. I'm no kind of timer -- I would have to be too vigilant and I already have a full-time job, a home and a family to look after. Thus I am a buy-and-hold guy, and I don't mind holding indefinitely.

I am still groping toward my answer to the question of just much to allocate to the I-fund. I have doubled it in the last couple quarters and it is now my largest single holding. By all signs, I will add to it when I make my next re-allocation.

Dave

Spartan

05-09-2006, 10:35 AM

Missing gains and losing money are not the same.:D Well done on your I Fund stand.

Missing gains IS losing money (buying power) when those gains are due to a weakening dollar.

Griffin

05-09-2006, 11:59 AM

Warren Buffet was on the cable news talking that the fundamentals that are driving the dollar down are all still in place. When you consider all the dollars (to be distinguished from wealth) that was created by the housing boom, coupled with this ridiculous government print and spend policy - the factors driving inflation is beyond what the Fed can compensate for by continued rate hikes. Inflation and dollar devaluation are here to stay. As long as the dollar devaluation makes it easier for foreign nations to pay their energy bills, they are not going to seriously balk at the exporting edge this gives the US.

Being invested in the foreign economies seems to me, a lot safer then being invested in the US. Europe and Asia are not going to make bad economic policy the standard (at least not all at once).:nuts:

FundSurfer

05-09-2006, 04:50 PM

Buffet has been talking the evils of a huge federal deficit for years. The deficit has gone into hyperdrive of late which is probably why he is selling US assets and buying foriegn assets.

Brett

05-15-2006, 10:54 AM

http://www.pbase.com/brettwp/image/60226044.jpgThe Dollar is up, Nikkei down, oil down and I-fund down. Although it does look like it’s struggling to make it into positive territory, I just fear riding this down. Call it dumb money if you must.

Griffin

05-15-2006, 11:30 AM

Brett,

In keeping with your Dr. Strangelove analogy (great movie by the way, personal all time favorite), Being in the I-Fund right now, is a few frames earlier where the wing commander is kicking and jumping on the bomb trying to get it loose. The serious drop hasn't started yet, if it is coming, at all - and we have the advantage of a parachute.

Fivetears

05-17-2006, 03:57 PM

Fivetears

06-08-2006, 12:02 AM

If it continues it's current path... easily. Tom has it at a 2850 point loss (16.3%) in two months.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=46603&postcount=1189

The_Technician

06-08-2006, 06:55 AM

World markets really took a hit yesterday......Uhhhhhhhhhh......

The_Technician

06-08-2006, 07:58 AM

ECB (European Central Bank) is raising interest rates also....

This is something to consider for the future I fund.

"The level of interest rates affects the economy. Higher interest rates tend to slow economic activity; lower interest rates stimulate economic activity. Either way, interest rates influence the sales environment. In the consumer sector, few homes or cars will be purchased when interest rates rise. Furthermore, interest rate costs are a significant factor for many businesses, particularly for companies with high debt loads or who have to finance high inventory levels. This interest cost has a direct impact on corporate profits. The bottom line is that higher interest rates are bearish for the stock market, while lower interest rates are bullish. "

Seems that the ECB has also been following the US lead in cheapening the EURO by opening up the spigot.....since '04

More BS.....Shanghiaing isn't the way to go.....

tsptalk

06-12-2006, 01:34 AM

This fund has gone three steps forward and one step back for nearly two years now. Why more people don't lock in on it...is beyond me.

Anyone else seeing this, or agree with this logic? I mean--it seems as though many avoid it because of higher risk, but it has clearly been the most profitable fund over the past two years, hands down. Thoughts?

What a difference a few weeks makes. :worried:

Since that post:

G Fund, +0.06 or +0.55%
F Fund, +0.06 or +0.57%
C Fund, -0.60 or -4.19%
S Fund, -1.16 or -6.48%
I Fund, -1.59 or -7.88%

Sentiment is such a strong indicator.

Rod

06-12-2006, 03:39 AM

What a difference a few weeks makes. :worried:

Got that right!:p

CPT_Shane

06-16-2006, 10:42 PM

Roger that. I moved my balance 100% to the G fund about two and a half weeks ago. I did not shift my allotment, as I have been buying into the I fund while its nosedived. I'll jump back in 100% after the turbulance settles. The I fund will rise again!

Love this board.

Shane

tsptalk

06-16-2006, 11:36 PM

I'll jump back in 100% after the turbulance settles. The I fund will rise again!

Hi Shane -

It [the I fund] might very well take off again, but I have my eye on the chart of the dollar which seems to want to rally.

Spaf

06-16-2006, 11:37 PM

Yea, according to my trading records, two and a half week ago was the optimum time to sell the I-fund.

tsptalk

06-17-2006, 01:12 AM

Hey, that's pretty accurate. What's your secret? :)

Mike

06-17-2006, 02:06 AM

Tom, if the Fed signals it will stop or at least pause after the next rate hike, wouldn't that put the brakes on the dollar's move up?

Spaf

06-17-2006, 09:49 AM

With retirement closing in.......Been doing a lot of archiving lately...:D

Anybody need any special government links, cause I got em all!...:nuts:

http://www.sec.gov/

I'll let some one else chase them....;)

Gotta go splash some water on my boat, make sure she's awake!......:cheesy: