STAY AWAY

[Rod]

As most of you know, the value of bonds go down when interest rates go up.

I wouldn't have a cent in the F fund now with an increase in interest rates around the corner- 30 Jun.

God Bless :)

[Timer]

Yes, I understand that and that's my attitude re: the F fund right now.... so why is the F fund performing so well while intrest rates are going up??? Don't get it.

[fuzzduzz]

The lastest numbers comming in for the economy have been lower than expected. Investors are realizing the economy is slowing down. So the fed won't be in a hurry to raise interest rates with a slowing economy. The markets are going down and investors are moving their money to defensive areas (Bonds, utilities, energy etc...)

[puertorico]

Testing water

Today wed. 21 I make a transfer to 100% F...:shock:

EFECTIVE thursday 22 :s

[Timer]

fuzz, where do you get your 'numbers'?

[Mike]

I think investors are jumping the gun if they think one month's data is indicative of an economic slowdown.

Timer, he probably gets them from the news - a lot of data was just released. The CPI actually dropped (surprising a lot of people), and the job gains were also considerably weaker than expected. One school of thought is that this is the start of another economic downturn. Investors who are bailing out of the market for the bonds right now would fall under this category.

The other line of thinking (which is the one I agree with) is that June was a monthly fluctuation in an expanding / growing economy. As long as we don't have another shock - like a persistent oil price hike or a terrorist attack, I think we'll be fine. I'm starting to think the market won't gain much 'til after the election, though - whether or not the economic data is solid.

[fuzzduzz]

Your basing your investment decisions on forcasting. All the forcasters were telling us to buy stocks from the beginning of 2000 all the way down for 2 1/2 yrs. Forget what someone thinks is suppose to happen and look at the charts which are telling you what is acually happing now. All the stock charts have broken major support levels and falling The F fund has broken through resistance and looking strong for now anyway.

[Mike]

The current situation isnot comparable to the period you speak of... which involved a recession combined with a major terrorist attack.

Jobs are still being created (albeit less than the expected number in June), inflation remains low (CPI dropped in June), and most economists continue to state that the economy is growing and will continue to do so at a decent clip for the rest of the year.

I'm not going to follow the herd mentality based on one month's data. The whole thing strikes me asa knee jerk reaction on the part of some investors.

[tsptalk]

fuzzduzz wrote:
Your basing your investment decisions on forcasting. All the forcasters were telling us to buy stocks from the beginning of 2000 all the way down for 2 1/2 yrs. Forget what someone thinks is suppose to happen and look at the charts which are telling you what is acually happing now. All the stock charts have broken major support levels and falling The F fund has broken through resistance and looking strong for now anyway.
That is certainly some bold, independant thinking fuzz. Going against the grain of the herd is usually wise. Doing what the market is telling you, not what you want to happen is sound advice.

I agree thecharts are not looking great but they haven'tcompletely fallen apart just yet. And I don't know if too many analysts are screaming "bull" right now. Sure there are some (like me) but I'm seeing more and more "head for the hills" articles than ever. Put/call ratios and the Rydex ratios (those putting money in bear funds) tell us that there is a lot of nervous investors out there, which is a good sign.

As I mentioned in another post, the one thing that scares me is not that people are afraid that there will be a terrorist attempt and that is why the market is going to fall, but rather that the market already knows it. That's hard to explain and it sounds like hooey, butif you follow the market you know that the indices seem to rise and fall before major events. That's one reason I believe what you said, that you shouldpay attention to what the market is actually doing and not to what everyone is saying.

[fuzzduzz]

When the charts stop going down and base for awhile then turn up with volume behind it I'll come back to your side. :^

The naz has broken it's may lows (1865) That's breaking down and falling apart to me. As the the naz goes so will the rest of the markets eventually :end:

[Timer]

fuzzduzz wrote:
When the charts stop going down
Fuzz, what 'charts' do you watch? Do you subscribe to a service.

[fuzzduzz]

Charts of the indexes (naz, s&p, dji) and all the funds (agg, spy, vxf, efa) I usually look at them at (clearstation, stockcharts, incredablecharts)