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Rod
06-22-2004, 02:00 AM
Is anybody currently in the I fund? If not, why? It has posted gains since 16 June.

Just curious.

Rolo
06-22-2004, 07:21 AM
'Cos we needed a lesson in humility, a reminder that we don't know everything. :D

Now let us never speak of the I fund ever again, until it drops past our selling price. :l

hehehe. Yes, it seems to be on a tear.

When I am not off on hunches, I am using the FRO, and the FRO says, "too expensive".

tsptalk
06-22-2004, 09:31 AM
Rod wrote:
Is anybody currently in the I fund? If not, why? It has posted gains since 16 June.

Just curious.

I'm waiting for the dollar to either rebound from where it is now, or break down. It is currently near the bottom of it's upward trading channel. A risingdollar is bad for the I fund. I falling dollar helps the I fund. I try to talk about it, with the chart of the dollar, in the market comments from time to time. That will give me something to talk about tonight. :)

Tom

06-29-2004, 03:26 PM
After hiding out in the G fund for a while, I have slowly taken a "larger and larger" position in the I fund. Currently 30% I (now you you see why I put quotations marks around around larger). 10% in C, 60% G, I have been waiting for a clear indication of which way to go, market has been kind of "wishy washey"--no strong consistent rally or decline.

Just when I thought I would take a bit larger position in the I fund, assuming the fund would decline, low and behold it went up 13 cents. I'm just glad I took a small position, because, yes that was an expensive buy for me. Right now I will just hold and hopefully the ride isnt too bumpy.

tsptalk
06-29-2004, 04:26 PM
I'm still waiting on a clear sign that the uptrend in the dollar is over before getting in the I fund. I thought it broke down the other day but today the dollar shot back up (The I fund may have done pretty badly today). The problem is I couldmiss the boat while waiting. But my "signals" are usually early and I know as soon as I jump in the I fund, the dollar will rally and kill any EAFE indexgains.

There is not as much guess work with the U.S. funds. It is not a terrible thing to stay in C and S and wait for a direction in the dollar before deciding on the I fund. Your 30% is probably a good idea but I'm surprised you have so much in the G fund.

CheapShot
06-30-2004, 08:08 AM
If there is a positive gain today after the interest announcement and a Thursday gain, and if their is a sell-off on Friday would the I fund lose or gain in that instance, or would the I Fund not be affected. I am going 30 C and 70 S today.

CheapShot

Pete1
06-30-2004, 08:27 AM
Interestingly, C and I seem to be more highly correlated in the short-term when the U.S. market is declining than when the market is advancing.Remember those big selloffs earlier in the year? The I fund was tanking just as much if not more than C and S. I do not think that the I fund is necessarily a safe bet in the short-term if that is what you are looking for.

06-30-2004, 08:31 AM
I agree Pete. :(

07-15-2004, 02:10 PM
So a warning, the I fund fast-moving average share price has dipped into the intermediate-moving share price average. Not a good sign. Remember when I said this about the C fund a week or two ago? We all know where it has gone.

tsptalk
07-15-2004, 04:14 PM
I think we (I) got lucky yesterday with the I fund only being down .01. The dollar being down helped. Today was a different story. The dollar rallied and the EAFE was down. Should be a bad day for the I fund.

Today could be the ~GONG~ that tells us toget out of the I fund but the dollar chart still looks pretty bad. A lot of overhead resistance.

Rolo
07-16-2004, 08:04 AM
Ow! $13.40 :{to $13.28. I hope today brings it back; my transfer is one day late.

tsptalk
07-16-2004, 09:15 AM
Did you see in my comments that the I fund has a habit of bouncing back strongly after a bad day? We'll see. But that doesn't help you much I guess.

Rolo
07-16-2004, 09:17 AM
Yes I did...also why I am not too concerned over it. It's more about the kicking myself than about the money. :D

tsptalk
07-20-2004, 09:45 PM
The dollar had a nice rally Tuesday which hurt the I fund. I wish the rally in the US markets came a bit earlier. It would have been nice to move more into theI fund for Wednesday as ittends to catch up to the US gains the next day, especially after it has a down day. I'll predict a 1% plus day for the I fund Wednesday.

My predictionshould be the kiss of death for the I fund. ;)

07-21-2004, 06:43 AM
mlk_man wrote:
So a warning, the I fund fast-moving average share price has dipped into the intermediate-moving share price average. Not a good sign. Remember when I said this about the C fund a week or two ago? We all know where it has gone.Remember when I wrote this? You may be right about the bounce back today, but I don't think you're gonna make any money in the I fund for while unless you get in one day and out the next.

Cortez
07-21-2004, 08:28 AM
I have been 50% I since late January and it has been the best performing fund during that time. I was also 50% S but I have since diversified (late April) into 10%G, 20% C and 20% S (the C fund has been a bad idea thus far). The reason I am so heavy on I is that I fundamentally believe in the weak dollar trend. I see the trend being a slow gradual process due to foreign central banks devaluating their currencies in an attempt to keep an advantage in export markets.

Pete1
07-21-2004, 08:44 AM
My predictionshould be the kiss of death for the I fund. ;)


hohoho, right there with youregarding my short-term reads :)but there is no shame in giving it a try. I was actually pleased to hear that Greenspan was going to speak this week. He usually stirs things up and it seemed like he might have a positive influence this time.

Honestly, I am not sure about I fund in the short-term.A 25-30% allocation seems reasonable for the long-term. Some say as high as 40-50%.

07-21-2004, 09:02 AM
I fund is starting down this morning. :(

tsptalk
07-21-2004, 12:08 PM
It seemed like every European and Asian market was up big earlier this morning but the "EFA" was down because the dollar was rallying. It's amazing how much the dollar affects the I fund.

tsptalk
07-21-2004, 03:42 PM
Japan up 1.56%
Hong Kong up2.24%
United Kingdom up .87%
France up .83%
Germany up 1.04%
Sweden up 2.08%

EAFE index ... down 2%. Why? I can't imagine the dollar can have that kind of affect. I'm curious how bad the I fund will be down.

Mike
07-22-2004, 02:00 AM
Ouch.

C fund down 0.15, S fund down 0.27, and I fund down 0.12.

Good thing I'm in this for the very long term... I can get some nice bargains on these funds with the prices stagnating/dropping this year.

Cortez
07-22-2004, 08:44 AM
The I fund has been down despite the EAFE due to a considerable dollar rally the past two days. The cause of the rally? Greenspan speaking in front of Congress. And every single time Greenspan speaks, he whips the dollar bulls into a fervor. I believe that if you keep tabs on when Greenspan is to speak and initiate an allocation change away from the I fund by noon the prior day, and reenter the I fund either after noon the last day he speaks or the following day (either before or after noon depending on instinct/observations).

07-26-2004, 01:12 PM
mlk_man wrote:
So a warning, the I fund fast-moving average share price has dipped into the intermediate-moving share price average. Not a good sign. Remember when I said this about the C fund a week or two ago? We all know where it has gone.Sorry if you've been in the I fund. I'd stay away a bit longer till the moving averages at least level out. :^

Rolo
07-28-2004, 11:09 AM
For now, I've chucked the I Fund under the "Too complicated" category and am avoiding it--"more moving parts, more that can go wrong".

If Tom called it, albeit a littletoo soon--a recurring problem I seem to have also, and the dollar rises, *poof* go the I's gains. I'd rather not deal with currency risk atm.

There's plenty to be made with S and C, I think.

(Like, ohmigawd, I was, like, right on topic!)

07-28-2004, 11:53 AM
I believe you may be right Rolo, go figure! :P

Mike
07-29-2004, 12:51 AM
Yep, the dollar has been making gains against the Euro lately. If that continues, the I fund will take a hit (which is why I got out of it on June 30th).

Rod
07-29-2004, 06:32 AM
I believe the I will do decent today. That's why I'm in @ 60%.

Pete1
07-29-2004, 09:07 AM
The I fund can be quite annoying, especially when the indicator is positive and the fund drops in price. I am starting to think that Jack Bogle may be right - the currency risk is not worth it and no more than 20% should be allocated to EAFE. I agree with Rolo - too many moving parts. Of course, for timers, feel free to move in and out of I fund at your discretion. :) It seems like it should be due for some sort of a bounce but if the dollar is firming up, those green light gains displayed on the indicator tend to disappear. :(

Rod
07-29-2004, 09:27 AM
Pete1 wrote:
The I fund can be quite annoying, especially when the indicator is positive and the fund drops in price. I am starting to think that Jack Bogle may be right - the currency risk is not worth it and no more than 20% should be allocated to EAFE. I agree with Rolo - too many moving parts. Of course, for timers, feel free to move in and out of I fund at your discretion. :) It seems like it should be due for some sort of a bounce but if the dollar is firming up, those green light gains displayed on the indicator tend to disappear. :(


Yep... I know whatcha saying!:? I'll be 40%C and 60%S tomorrow, though.

Holding my breath....;)

07-29-2004, 10:40 AM
I fund (EFA) is flat this morning. Could go either way, but probably remain flat. Might be making for a nice buy opportunity for tomorrow. Staying 100% S though.

Rod
07-29-2004, 10:49 AM
mlk_man wrote:
I fund (EFA) is flat this morning. Could go either way, but probably remain flat. Might be making for a nice buy opportunity for tomorrow. Staying 100% S though.


It's now up .23%

Pete1
07-29-2004, 07:12 PM
The I fund never fails to surprise, sometimes positive, sometimes negative. Today was a positive surprise, .10 cents to the good despite the indicated increase of only .12%. The return was actually .77% :). The tracking error on this fund is reallytough.

Rod
07-30-2004, 02:10 AM
Pete1 wrote:
The I fund never fails to surprise, sometimes positive, sometimes negative. Today was a positive surprise, .10 cents to the good despite the indicated increase of only .12%. The return was actually .77% :). The tracking error on this fund is reallytough.
That's what my gut was telling me.:D Sometimes it's right, sometimes it's wrong. But, that's what this game is all about, right?;)

For me personally, at the time the I fund was looking more promising than the S, although the S pulled out ahead by 5 cents.

God Bless:^

Pete1
07-30-2004, 08:28 AM
Okay, so this morning, the EFV indicator looks good, +.8%. That's very close to yesterday's close.