Interfund Transfer 4/18 for 4/19/06

[tsptalk]

If yesterday's sell off had come earlier we might have been in stocks today taking advantage of this rally. There is a lot of news on the horizon with big name earnings reports after the close today and all week, and the FOMC meeting minutes being released later today so this "nibble" is being done with some conern.

I will make an interfund transfer this morning going to 40% G, 20% C, 20% S and 20% I fund. I'll talk more about it tomorrow's comments.

[mlk_man]

Step right up sir!!

http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y216/mlk_man/Gambling/card_dealer_with_cards_sm_clr.gif

[Spaf]

I thought a nibble was a small bite!?!...........:blink: .............:D

[tsptalk]

It was the worst case scenario. Let me explain:

Yesterday we anticipated a weak day as the Monday following Easter is historically below average followed by some gains the rest of the week. I planned to use that weakness to nibble on stocks. Instead, stocks were higher all of Monday morning freezing me in my G fund allocation.

By Monday afternoon the market tumbled and we saw that typical post Easter drop. But becauase that didn't happen before our TSP deadline, we didn't get in.

Tuesday comes and the Dow looks good early up 40 or 50 points. I think, OK, let's nibble on stocks and see if we can't catch a rally through the options expiration, and be out again for next Monday. Well by the close the Dow was up about 200 points and we are still on the sidelines waiting for our TSP transfers to take effect Wednesday. Now I fear we are setting up for some profit taking and we will be in stocks.

Ah, the joys of trading our TSP accounts. See you tomorrow.

[Eagle_Addict]

Well, sir, it never hurts to dabble on a chance once in a while. I have been playing the I fund for a bit, and so far, so good, but , as you point out, we can 'lock in' for an extra day and a half without being able to get out if a large market move occurs............I have a buddy who has been in the G fund for 4 years "waiting for a correction"....I do not think he will ever make a move, a real shame, eh?!?!?!

[Soldat]

No guts no glory. Iran could wreak havoc but who knows, they are playing it up quite a bit. Oil, rate hikes, global tensions, yet the trend is up. Maybe the investors like the struggle and drama; keeps everyone on their toes.

Honestly, I wouldnt mind a 10% correction. Would give me a chance to pick up some cheap stock. Then again, I am only 23; I have 7 more years before I retire. Play the game, dont let the game play you. Trend is your friend.

[Wheels]

Then again, I am only 23; I have 7 more years before I retire.

You're planning to retire at 30. Yikes!

Dave
<><

[The_Technician]

It was the worst case scenario. Let me explain:

Yesterday we anticipated a weak day as the Monday following Easter is historically below average followed by some gains the rest of the week. I planned to use that weakness to nibble on stocks. Instead, stocks were higher all of Monday morning freezing me in my G fund allocation.

By Monday afternoon the market tumbled and we saw that typical post Easter drop. But becauase that didn't happen before our TSP deadline, we didn't get in.

Tuesday comes and the Dow looks good early up 40 or 50 points. I think, OK, let's nibble on stocks and see if we can't catch a rally through the options expiration, and be out again for next Monday. Well by the close the Dow was up about 200 points and we are still on the sidelines waiting for our TSP transfers to take effect Wednesday. Now I fear we are setting up for some profit taking and we will be in stocks.

Ah, the joys of trading our TSP accounts. See you tomorrow.


Ahhhh, you couldn't have said it more plainly Tom....yesterday was really a surprise....I thought I would get in on a "Get even" day for the market...instead we got the hammer to floor and its going like its the last chance for something......

I dread today a bit, but you can really never know.....

[DSA]

It was the worst case scenario. Let me explain:

Yesterday we anticipated a weak day as the Monday following Easter is historically below average followed by some gains the rest of the week. I planned to use that weakness to nibble on stocks. Instead, stocks were higher all of Monday morning freezing me in my G fund allocation.

By Monday afternoon the market tumbled and we saw that typical post Easter drop. But becauase that didn't happen before our TSP deadline, we didn't get in.

Ah, the joys of trading our TSP accounts. See you tomorrow.

Ah, Tom, if only you'd followed your own advice. Here's my story over the last few days:

I generally just keep my allocations where Rev Shark suggests, but I always read and consider your Market Comments.

Go back to last week - it's Thursday morning, it's 8:55 AM on the West Coast. I just have enough time to read your Market Comments...You're making a good case that the market will drop on Monday, and there's that $.01 per share thing for the G Fund to consider, so, in a mad rush I head on over to TSP.GOV and make the move to 100% G fund. I hit the button to transfer and damn...it's 9:01 AM on my computer...but Good For Me, I got the email confirming the transfer Thursday night, so I am 100% G on Monday, and pick up that penny per share and missed the stock drop.

But UNLIKE YOU, Tom, I followed YOUR advice and logic, and Monday morning, BRIGHT and EARLY, I moved my funds to 30%-G, 40%-C, 10%-S, 20%-I. Maybe not the best spread considering the way things worked out, but I was back in the game at the right time and made some big money on Tuesdays rebound.

I can't thank you enough for your comments on Thursday...they made me make the smart moves!

I'm a little disappointed in Rev Shark's Timing Newsletter not suggesting a move like that, though. In hindsight, it seems like a no brainer if I could figure it out and make a move like that.

[tsptalk]

Thanks DSA. I'm glad someone benefited. My thing before I make a move is, how many people are going to follow my move, and what if they lose money? The market was due for short term gains but my longer term outlook is still in yellow flag mode.

I think the only way I am going to get by this fear of having people lose money (not just miss gains but actually take losses) is to turn off my email, stop reading the board, and just go on as if no one is reading. But I don't think I'll ever do that. The short term is a tough monster.

But thanks again!
Tom

[sugarandspice]

So when you decide to move your money, you consider how many others will do it also? You must have a significant number of people following you. That kind of pressure comes with the site and being the creator of the site as well.

Also, I would just like to say Tom that I really appreciate all the time and work you put into this thing to keep it going. I believe that if TSP had a link to here that thousands more would benefit. This is an invaluable FREE resource.

And I dont know if I would be able to handle the responsibility of having people follow what I'm doing in my account.

Thanks again,
Sugar
(Probably won't mean much coming from a whack-job like me )

[sugarandspice]

Careful Tom, last time she dished out the praise I woke up missing two toes because she ran out of Vienna Sausages. She must want something.

[DSA]

So when you decide to move your money, you consider how many others will do it also? You must have a significant number of people following you. That kind of pressure comes with the site and being the creator of the site as well.

Also, I would just like to say Tom that I really appreciate all the time and work you put into this thing to keep it going. I believe that if TSP had a link to here that thousands more would benefit. This is an invaluable FREE resource.

And I dont know if I would be able to handle the responsibility of having people follow what I'm doing in my account.


Gotta follow the standard DISclaimer: information provided here is for educational purpsoses only and should not be considered investment advice, investors should do their own research and make their own determinations of investment suitability, blah blah blah.

That said, Tom is obviously a man of "good" conscience, and so does worry that others may lose their shirt following his lead, so acts accordingly. I'm the same way when some friends and coworkers ask what I am doing with my various investments.

I'd be very disheartened to get a flood of emails (hatEmails?) if I recommended a stock (or TSP allocation) and it went south.

FWIW, I'm following the sentiment to move from G to F fund my 40% and thinking to pull out of the C and put 30% S and 30% I.

[tsptalk]

Also, I would just like to say Tom that I really appreciate all the time and work you put into this thing to keep it going. I believe that if TSP had a link to here that thousands more would benefit. This is an invaluable FREE resource.

Thanks sugar. I think others would disagree as I've been called every name in the book over the years. I get a lot of emails showing appreciation but others have told me where they think I should stick my "advice". :D

I wish tsp.gov would link here as that would be a major boost to the site.

Thanks again,
Tom

[mlk_man]

I wish tsp.gov would link here as that would be a major boost to the site.

Thanks again,
Tom

With all the IFT's lately, they'd better put me on their payroll also!! :nuts:

[DSA]

I wish tsp.gov would link here as that would be a major boost to the site.
Tom

It'll never happen. It would be an endorsement of your site, which they can't do, or worse, would make them have to link to anyone else who wanted to get traffic off their site.

[pointman72]

Tom,

Really need to echo Sugar's complement about all that you do, I'm not sure any of us really have a good estimate concerning how many people actually monitor this site and gleam the valuable information.

Concerning your daily market advice, maybe you could try a different approach. It maybe necessary to solicite so help in the interim, but maybe you provide daily advice from both extremes (ultra conservative and ultra aggressive) and let everyone determine their own position based on their level of acceptable risk.

Just a thought, would volunteer but I'm just a rookie that shoots from the hip and don't really understand what some of these people are talking about most of the time. lol

Again thanks for all that you do. Pointman72

[tsptalk]

Tom,

Concerning your daily market advice, maybe you could try a different approach. It maybe necessary to solicite so help in the interim, but maybe you provide daily advice from both extremes (ultra conservative and ultra aggressive) and let everyone determine their own position based on their level of acceptable risk.

You're welcome pointman. My pleasure.

By the way, If people didn't know, I do have the longer term account that I "manage" as well and it is up 7.5% this year. http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns2.html Just another alternative.

And since you mentioned it, I currently have 3000 to 4000 people reading the market comments page daily and the email alert list is up to 8500.

Thanks everyone!
Tom

[pointman72]

Tom,

That is super, just wait till the word really gets around!

When I mentioned the term "ultra aggressive" I was referring to "day trading" and not simply "buy & hold". Otherwise it wouldn't represent a challenge for you all and you'd become easily bored. lol

Thank again for everything you do.

[Pilgrim]

Tom,

I see that in your comments today you are still using the Decision Point chart for AGG. Did anyone ever resolve the discrepencies between these guys versus YAHOO and BIG CHARTS??

[ayla]

Tom -- your "returns2.html" page is showing up very unclear on my computer. The print overlaps to the point I can't read the numbers. I use Firefox browser. Maybe you've designed your page for IE only. Just wanted to let you know in case you get other reports as well.

[tsptalk]

Tom,

I see that in your comments today you are still using the Decision Point chart for AGG. Did anyone ever resolve the discrepencies between these guys versus YAHOO and BIG CHARTS??

Not to my knowledge. Maybe I should just use the 10 or 30-year bond when showing bonds.

[tsptalk]

Tom -- your "returns2.html" page is showing up very unclear on my computer. The print overlaps to the point I can't read the numbers. I use Firefox browser. Maybe you've designed your page for IE only. Just wanted to let you know in case you get other reports as well.

Interesting. It does look OK in IE. Maybe I'll check it in Firefox as well.

Thanks!
Tom

[coolhand]

I think others would disagree as I've been called every name in the book over the years. I get a lot of emails showing appreciation but others have told me where they think I should stick my "advice". :D

Tom,

The biggest challenge you or any other provider of financial information has is conveying your wisdom to a largely financially uneducated public. It takes years to develop market insight, whether it is technical analysis or market fundamentals. You are the one who got me started two and half years ago and you imparted a great deal of useful information to me.

Your frustration with the market is very common for just about any market analyst. They all go through tough periods. The market is extremely dynamic, often illogical, and a formidable challenge to trade.

Money is a very emotional element for a whole lot of people. If one does not possess a true appreciation for the difficulties involved in active account management, then disappointment and disgust will come easy.

We all have a responsibility to learn how to manage our accounts. Following along with a financial guide is fine and dandy, but personal education makes it a whole lot more rewarding.

I would like to thank you Tom, for everything you have done. Your fortune will turn and the past few months will fade quickly.

I would also like to say to your entire viewing public that Rev Shark is in my top three of market analysts. His market savvy is awsome. I highly recommend him to anyone seeking market guidance with their TSP account.

For anyone who is actively learning the markets for themselves, I also highly recommend reading "The World is Flat" by Thomas L. Friedman. It is quite enlightening with respect to globalization.

One final thought. Last year was very difficult for me in the market. But I continued to learn and read. So far this year I am on track for a gain of over 25%. Light bulbs are starting to come on and I am experiencing much more success. No doubt I'll still have my difficult moments, but at least now I know it won't last.

Good luck to all.

Coolhand

[tsptalk]

You are the one who got me started two and half years ago and you imparted a great deal of useful information to me.

Great! That was the main point of this site rather than having people follow my moves - mainly because everyone's investing situation is different.


I would like to thank you Tom, for everything you have done. Your fortune will turn and the past few months will fade quickly.

You're welcome. And unfortunately, if my "fortune" turns around, the people who have been very aggressive throughout the past 6 months will likely take it on the chin, so I have mixed emotions about a big drop.


I would also like to say to your entire viewing public that Rev Shark is in my top three of market analysts. His market savvy is awsome. I highly recommend him to anyone seeking market guidance with their TSP account.

Yes, we are lucky to have him. I wondered how his market trading knowledge would translate to our TSP rules of trading and he has not disappointed.


For anyone who is actively learning the markets for themselves, I also highly recommend reading "The World is Flat" by Thomas L. Friedman. It is quite enlightening with respect to globalization.

I read that and it does a good job of explaining why technology and growth investing is still hot after all these years. The world has changed and tech is still in its infancy.


One final thought. Last year was very difficult for me in the market. But I continued to learn and read. So far this year I am on track for a gain of over 25%. Light bulbs are starting to come on and I am experiencing much more success. No doubt I'll still have my difficult moments, but at least now I know it won't last.

I agree. People new to investing generally want results now. Even though the return of the S&P 500 beat my return during half of the past 6 years, my total return during that period (2000 to 2005) beat the S&P 500 by about 22% (+15.22% to -6.76%). It's the long run that matters.

Thanks Coolhand.

Tom

[Timmie-O]

Hey Tom,

That was a big bold move into the F fund. Any predictions how it will fare next week. I'm considering moving something into the F fund. Currently I'm still in the G fund for 90%, and the other 10% is split between the C, S, and I.

I'm gonna retire next year and need to pump up the value of this account. I'm only a simpleton making small wages and invest as much into the TSP as I can, after family expenses, wants and desires.

[tsptalk]

Timmie -
I'm just bottom fishing the bonds right now - meaning, we may or may not have seen the bottom for bonds, but they are so oversold we could see a little bounce regardless. Next week the G should pay on Friday again so it shouldn't hurt to be in F through Thursday.

FYI - Friday, the last trading day in April, is historically strong for stocks. As are the first few days of May.

[tsptalk]

Tom,

I see that in your comments today you are still using the Decision Point chart for AGG. Did anyone ever resolve the discrepencies between these guys versus YAHOO and BIG CHARTS??

Pilgrim -
I sent Carl Swenlin at DP an email to ask what he thought about the discrepancy. I'll let you know his response.

Tom

[tsptalk]

Here is his reply...



Our data is correct. We adjust the data for distributions, which is the correct way to maintain historical data. Most other sites do not.

Best,
Carl