pointman72 Account Talk [Archive]

pointman72

03-22-2006, 03:11 PM

Initial Post:

I like everyone else is suffering from the new deadline restrictions. Monday (20 March) made the move to 70% I and 30% F in the hope that International Market would continue rising and the correction/consolidation for our market would start (old concept stocks decline/bonds rise). Made conscience decision yesterday to remain at this distribution through Thursday night. Risk is acceptable during the week but like to sleep good on the weekends.

Submitted IFT for today to 50% G and 50% F effective Thursday night (23 March). Will allow things to evolve, monitor the outcomes and probably resume trading early next week. That is assuming that by then the system will support daily IFTs again. Trying to guess the market 2 days in advance during this turmoil is rough for a newbee.

In advance, appreciate the opportunity to bond with such distinguished experts. :D

sugarandspice

03-22-2006, 05:24 PM

"I like everyone else is suffering from the new deadline restrictions"

What does this mean?

pointman72

03-22-2006, 06:37 PM

Personally I believe it is a bad policy resulting from an over reaction. Do not understand why an interfund transfer from one fund to another is being scrutinized, resulting in a two day wait. Would imagine they should only be providing verification for actual withdrawls or loans from the TSP program. Am I off base or did I miss something? :worried:

Rod

03-22-2006, 09:04 PM

Welcome pointman72. Please discuss your account here.

God Bless:)

tsptalk

03-22-2006, 11:19 PM

Welcome pointman! Good luck!

pointman72

03-23-2006, 03:22 PM

nnuut

03-23-2006, 03:34 PM

Pointman72,
Welcome, the more the merrier!!
TSP will only Guarantee IFT within 2 working days. If you call the Thrift Line to make a transfer they say it will be effective within 2 days, buttttt---- The other day when they shutdown on line transfers I made an IFT via the Thrift Line at 10AM EST and it was affective the COB (close of business) that day. As far as I know they have NOT changed the policy and still TRY to make IFTs effective the COB the same day.
Best of luck in your investments!!!! :D
NNUUT

Rod

03-23-2006, 04:35 PM

Some times we just make money accidently.

Put in an IFT yesterday (22 Mar)and didn't think it would take effect until cob today (23 Mar). Anyway the change was made last night, so maybe we are back to one day IFTs again instead of two days.

Since the change was made last night advoided the I Fund beating today that would have been for 70% of my funds.

EZ thing to remember, if you make an IFT prior to noon EST, the allocation is normally effective the next day

For example, if you were 100(G) today and made an IFT for 100(S) @ 11:30am, you should wake up the next day to 100(S).

God Bless:)

pointman72

03-24-2006, 10:48 AM

Made an IFT for COB today to 75% I and 25% S.

Know this is against the concenous of the group, but sometimes the pointman must go where others dare.

Betting there is one last spike next week before the consolidation/correction. Normally don't like to do this over a weekend, but think the fireworks are going to start first thing Monday morning and want to get my money in before the price gets any higher and the risk increases.

Have a great weekend all and thanks for the opportunity to excel.

pointman72

03-30-2006, 11:08 AM

IFT for COB today 100% I.

Great results yesterday and super so far today. With the International Market highs and new highs, believe we will actually see 3 up days in a row. Will have to do a lot of pondering between now and tomorrow's cut off since I like to take an R&R (rest and relaxation) over the weekend.

But got to make some dimes before everything begins to decline and we begin penny hunting. Was really hoping the s fund would get inflated to stay within a reasonable limit of the I fund, but apparently that is not the case.

pointman72

04-11-2006, 10:41 AM

IFT for COB today 100% G

I rolled the dice and crapped out.

Started the month 100% I, made good profits Monday through Thursday, then lost 3/4 percent on Friday. Yesterday was break even. It looks like I'll end up giving my profits so far this month back based on the negative results of I today.

Knew going in this was going to be a real crap shoot. Historical data for April of 04 & 05 shows a 2 to 3% drop for the S & I funds during this time period. However, could not find any historical data for the S & I fund when we are experiencing new highs at the end of a 3 year run. So thought it was worth a gamble. Still do not regret the decision to try.

Am going to sit on the side lines (hope I can find a seat) until something changes. Will either go 100% I or S based on my gut read when I beleive we have bottomed out.

Good luck to all thoses still in the action. The pointman is going on R&R (rest and relaxation).

pointman72

04-12-2006, 10:50 AM

IFT for COB today 100% I.

Think we have bottomed out for now. If not, can't be much of a slide left till we hit bottom. Gonna throw the dice.

pointman72

04-19-2006, 11:12 AM

IFT for COB today 100% S.

Been a good run for the I fund. Think it will pay today but will be flat for tomorrow. Need to make some dimes before everyone starts chasing pennies.

I believe some of the money that has been on the side is going to infuse the small stocks today and tomorrow. This will be combined with whatever spurred the market this Thursday of last year (hopefully the same strong earning reports). Gut tells me the S fund is the place to be tomorrow.

Friday maybe another story. Dice have been thrown.

pointman72

05-23-2006, 11:25 AM

IFT for COB today to 100% I fund.

Been sitting on the side lines waiting for an opportunity to get back in the market. Last time I traded was 3 days after the I fund high of $20.95 when I moved from 100% I to G. Only lost 2% of my gain.

The reason I'm moving in to the I fund is simply the fund has lost about 10%, the dollar for the last week has somewhat stablized (as many highs as lows)and I feel it is about time for the international community to realize they do not have to minic the US economy.

Really believe the big winner in the next 2 months is going to be the S fund. However the dollar will need to begin a constant steady rise and the C fund will need to stop dragging down the S fund for it to accelerate the way it did this time last year.

By the way this time last year the S fund surpassed the I fund and over produced it by $1.50 in a 2 month period. If the dollar will begin a steady rise the Japanesse and European nations will again begin placing orders for American goods that will provide the momentum to get the S fund moving.

Think I'll stay in and out of the I fund for a while till it is clear the S fund has bottomed out and is ready to out preform the other stocks. My opinion.

pointman72

05-24-2006, 10:58 AM

IFT for COB today to 100% G fund.

Great plan and it is solid. However, timing is off, need to be more patient and wait until the international market realizes they are leaders and not followers.

pointman72

05-25-2006, 10:58 AM

IFT for COB today for 100% S Fund.

Think I may catch a bounce tomorrow and tuesday (Monday is a holiday). Think the dollar may rise a bit to help the bounce.

Really wanted to go I fund but Asia and Europe can't get their act together at the same time. Plus I think the Dollar is going to rise a little which will reduce any gains made in the foreign markets.

pointman72

05-26-2006, 11:02 AM

IFT for COB today for 100% I Fund.

Think conditions are Green and the timing is now right to make some big profits.

Was wrong on the dollar it has been down now for 2 days.

Plus our market will be closed on Monday thus allowing the international community to function without influence from the American markets. Our market is green today (positive indicator), this maybe the time for the international community to realize they don't have to mirror our markets.

Hope to make 2 percent on Monday alone. :D

nnuut

05-26-2006, 11:52 AM

Dollar Index +.52 at this time.:confused:

http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=DXY0&data=D&date=051305&den=MED&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=B&sky=N&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=XSTKIC&org=stk

Dollar up on Yen and Euro.

http://www.advfn.com/news_Forex---Dollar-advanced-across-the-board-ahead-of-holiday-weekend---UPDATE-3_0015588744.html

pointman72

06-07-2006, 11:28 AM

IFT for COB today for 100% S Fund.

Just trying to get a piece of the bounce tomorrow and then plan on being out on Friday.

Really wanted to go I fund but Asia and Europe can't get their act together at the same time. Not sure what the dollar is going to do from day to day, how the overseas markets are reacting to the fluxuations from one minute to another which adds to the unpredictability of getting in the I fund. Trying not to lose a lot but gain a little here and there.

pointman72

06-09-2006, 11:01 AM

IFT for COB today for 30% C Fund, 40% S Fund and 30% I Fund.

Believe we can make some money on Monday, question is which fund will out perform the others and will the I fund actually pay the gains? Can't figure it out so I'm putting away my sniper rifle and throwing a handgrenade instead. :D

pointman72

10-20-2006, 07:59 AM

IFT for COB today to 100% G Fund.

Move is not based on the market.

Going to Idaho tomorrow for two weeks to hunt trophy mule deer. Will not be taking a laptop nor will there be computer access, so its capital preservation for me.

Have done real well in the S Fund in the last couple of weeks and see a cup and handle pattern forming. This combined with Tom's prediction of a market decline is perfect timing for a R&R (Rest & Relaxation).

Plan to be back on the 4th, so my next IFT will be on 5 Nov.

Good luck everyone and hope you all make a lot a of money while I'm gone. You all sure are a bunch of fine Americans and true patriots!

The Pointman :D :D :D

pointman72

11-06-2006, 09:24 AM

IFT for COB today for 100% S Fund.

Glad to see a lot of you made 2% in the last 2 weeks while I was gone. Expect you to make another 1% today.

My move is predicated on the belief that it's time for the S Fund to play catchup this week with the C Fund and then catchup within 2% of the I Fund before year end.

FYI, no luck on the hunting trip. Good luck everyone. :D

pointman72

12-15-2006, 10:28 AM

IFT for COB today to 100% C Fund.

Dollar is rising so the I fund is out.

Believe everyone thinks small stocks are overbought, so S Fund is out.

Bonds are to iffy, so F Fund is out.

Refuse to hide in the G Fund.

So what is left, Birchtree's home for the holidays! :D :D :D

Birchtree

12-15-2006, 10:40 AM

A second helping of figgy pudding for you. Snort.

pointman72

12-21-2006, 11:04 AM

IFT for 100% F Fund.

Tried to spend the holidays which Birchtree but the rent was getting to high!

Firmly believe a correction is going to happen soon its just a matter of when, so might as well join the party with Tom and company to wait it out.

Time for capital preservation, its been a good year for my TSP. Hopefully, next year will be just as good.

Have a happy holiday, good health and a prosperous new year investing! Best wishes to everyone, your opinions are always welcome here!

The Pointman :D :D :D

pointman72

01-04-2007, 12:16 PM

IFT for COB today for 100% C Fund.

Sorry all, work had priority.

January is a caution month and everyone needs to beware. January normally contains a 3 to 4% drop and it happens in a matter of days not weeks. Understand everyone wants to start the year on an aggressive note, but be sure you evaluate the associated risk before you act.

With the dollar rising and countering any gains in the I Fund, combined with seasonality ending, the I fund IMHO is not the place to be for the next week.

As far as the USM goes, the market is tired and ready for some kind on downturn. But I think it has another couple of marginal gain days left before the downturn. I picked the C Fund because on good days it pays just about as good as the S Fund and is not as skiddish concerning the fear factor.

Good luck all! :D

pointman72

01-05-2007, 07:40 AM

Paladin,

Sounds like a safe play until a new trend immerges. Good luck!

pointman72

01-11-2007, 10:24 AM

IFT for COB today to 100% S Fund.

Look out pilgrim! Got my gorilla glue, saddle and got one week of MREs. Gonna saddle this beast and ride it straight up. Time for a new trend and don't want to fight the dollar in the interim.

Looking to ride the S fund through at least next wednesday.

Good luck everyone :D :D :D

pointman72

01-19-2007, 10:49 AM

IFT for COB today to 100% I Fund.

USM has made up its mind that its time for a correction ad everyone is lined up waiting on the start. Really is a shame, was hoping for one more pop and it cost me 1.25% this week sitting in the S Fund.

Reason for moving to the I Fund is:
- dollar is not conducting a verticle climb
- good chance OSM might pop sunday night/monday morning
- things go bad for USM this afternoon, I fund might get a -FV today that would pay on Monday.
- Risk is acceptable.

Have a great weekend all and good luck.

Pointman :D :D :D

pointman72

01-22-2007, 10:25 AM

IFT for COB today to 100% G Fund.

Dollar is starting to rise again. USM is in the panic mode. Haven't seen the normal January 2-3% drop yet. No use giving away my earnings. Maybe get back in later this week depending on the USM.

Good luck all! :D :D :D

pointman72

01-24-2007, 10:53 AM

IFT for COB today to 100% S Fund.

- Dollar is rising, not good (.37 now, could sky rocket tomorrow).
- Europe is posting good figures today, but tomorrow is an unknown.
- Yen rising against dollar, but Nikke only posted .57 last night.
- I fund could be ugly quick.

Will roll the dice for the S Fund for the next two days unless the board turns red.

Good luck all! :D

Fivetears

01-24-2007, 07:08 PM

I think my work PC time is running on Zulu or something; I thought you got todays S performance. Didn't you go in on Tuesday? If so, very nice move.

pointman72

01-25-2007, 10:40 AM

Unfortunitely no such luck! However, I did catch the I Fund yesterday.

January and February always seem to be my worst months. I always gain a couple of per cent each month but just can not get my timing together. Seams like the market reacts to certain information immediately and the response is instanteous and short lived. Trends are non-existant and good news is impossible to forecast.

Good luck!

Fivetears

01-25-2007, 12:25 PM

Good job man.
I guess it's my turn to be on the wrong end of the January whipsaw. :nuts:

pointman72

02-01-2007, 10:53 AM

IFT for COB today to 100% I Fund.

I'm not proud do not mind sweeping up the crumbs. Gets me a little closer to the lead position. By the way I sublet my lillypad this week! :D :D :D

pointman72

02-05-2007, 10:47 AM

IFT for COB today to 100% S Fund.

Not a lot of logic behind this move.

BLUF: Think I need to remain invested right now.
The dollar is rising, so its hard to make any money in I Fund.
Think with the lack of Economic news tomorrow the USM will go green.
No luck with the F fund in a bull market.
Only use the G fund when I'm certain everything will be red.

Think the S fund will out shine the C Fund tomorrow, so there it is. Any day you make money is a good day. But you have be invested to make money.

I still have 12 years before retirement, kids have graduated college, so maybe I can accept more risk than others. Personnal goal is 30% this year, the same as last year.

Good luck trading! :D

Birchtree

02-05-2007, 10:58 AM

Now he knows how to cut a trail. Keep goin.

pointman72

02-06-2007, 11:00 AM

Still 100% S Fund.

Wanted to put some back into I Fund but just don't trust the dollar to cooperate.

Hopefully these use car salesman we got runnin the Fed will talk the market into doing something good this afternoon and tomorrow.

Good luck trading! :D

pointman72

02-07-2007, 11:07 AM

Birchtree,

You gotta howler before you start a stampede, a feller could get hurt out here! :D

James48843

02-09-2007, 10:36 AM

Pointman-

I've been following your moves for the last six months or so, and believe you are doing well, and that we are thinking along the same lines sometimes. I say sometimes, but not other times. But a lot of the time I think we are thinking alike, and your results have been better than mine, as I seem to miss things by a day or two that you seem to hit right on target better.

Just today, for example, I am seriously considering jumping back out to "G", because we ]'ve had so long a run, and I'm seeing the "C" fund a bit stronger today than the "S". That is for me a kind of a signal that we are about to get the reversal, and that is why I think it may be time to bail.

But I am very interested in your perspective, and what you see in the days ahead. What are you thinking about and seeing right now?

Thanks in advance for your response.

pointman72

02-09-2007, 11:06 AM

James,

Sorry for getting back to you so late. Work you know.

BLUF: Remember, trend is your friend.

Don't know for certain what is going to happen, just that something has got to give. Worst case, believe S will have a slow reaction to any major movement down started by the C or I, thus the lost will be minimal. If things pop upward, the S will have just as big a gains as any other fund. I currently believe the risk is acceptable and plan to stay until the trend changes.

My motivation is making as much money as possible a year, thus maximizing my base for future returns. This means I just as happy with a $.02 a share increase as a $.20 a share increase. It all adds up. I have already taken a
$.20 hit in the S fund and a $.09 hit in the I fund this year, but the market is so unpredicitable it couldn't be helped. I say stay with the trend and don't worry about tomorrow until something turns red for two days or more, or heads straight down. My 2 cents worth.

Good luck trading! :D

James48843

02-09-2007, 12:46 PM

thanks for the thoughts. Very helpful.

Personally, I am thinking the "S" is going to lead the way down when the pullback comes.

I don't know if today is the start of the pullback, and I agree with you about the two days of blood being a good signal to pull out. Perhaps the USA today article today might be having some affect on the market today- it said that only once before have we gone this long without a 25 pullback, and that was in 1953-54. Maybe that scared some people who haven't been paying attention. We'll see in a day or two if the strength that the market has been showing can hang on.

I'm fully in - split equally right now between S and I.

Thanks for your comments.

pointman72

02-09-2007, 01:59 PM

James,

I'm 100 S Fund.

Today is just pure reaction. Herd has been real nervous for a while now, just looking for an excuse to start a correction. Question is which way is the market really headed?

This afternoon and Monday will be the deciding factor. If things slow down before the bell today and start to bounce on Monday we are going to need some gorilla glue to hang on to this verticle assent for a couple of weeks. However, if it doesn't it's time to head to the lilly pad for a month (same as may last year) till a bottom starts to firm. Lucky for us we had a practice session last summer and have knowledge of which funds out perform others when coming out of the bottom of the correction.

Anyway, keep up a good spirit cause we are definitely gonna make some serious money this year! :D :D :D

GGal

02-09-2007, 06:54 PM

James,

This afternoon and Monday will be the deciding factor. If things slow down before the bell today and start to bounce on Monday we are going to need some gorilla glue to hang on to this verticle assent for a couple of weeks. However, if it doesn't it's time to head to the lilly pad for a month (same as may last year) till a bottom starts to firm.

Anyway, keep up a good spirit cause we are definitely gonna make some serious money this year! :D :D :D

Well that's lovely, but I will be out of town Monday, Tuesday and Wed, and don't know yet if I will have internet access during the day!

GA

Wrngway

02-09-2007, 07:17 PM

Well that's lovely, but I will be out of town Monday, Tuesday and Wed, and don't know yet if I will have internet access during the day!

GA

You could place an order over the phone, right? I thought TSP had that option. Unfortunately you may not be able to see what's going on though. :notrust:

GGal

02-09-2007, 07:21 PM

You could place an order over the phone, right? I thought TSP had that option. Unfortunately you may not be able to see what's going on though. :notrust:

Thanks, WW.....maybe I could call a friend at the office, get them to check the charts....and call in if an emergency.

I've never done a call-in. My luck, the phone will be busy.

GA

pointman72

02-09-2007, 07:44 PM

GA,

I'm sorry.

In similiar situations I've had to call TSP to make allociation changes. The touchy part is finding someone who you can call to get an assessment of current market conditions to help you with your decision.

If you can't find anyone let me know and I'll give you my name and work number (will send PM). By the way GA, I work at US Army Forces Command in Atlanta, GA.

For what it's worth: Best guess is Monday morning the USM will be Green (bounce), OSM will be red (reaction to USM red today) and the dollar will be UP. I expect the dollar to be up for a while, negating a lot of the profits created by the OSM. Remaining in the USM for the rest of the week is a 50/50 call.

Good luck, wish my crystal ball was working. Have a great weekend.

Dave

GGal

02-09-2007, 10:05 PM

GGal

02-22-2007, 05:29 AM

PM,

What do you think about our 'I' situation. You know the Forex analysts have gone less bullish on the Euro this week.

GA

pointman72

02-22-2007, 10:37 AM

Georgia,

Sorry for the delay, just woke up. I'm in Hawaii for a conference this week. Believe the I fund will be the place to make some money for the next couple of days. See the dollar fluxuating some and midigating some of the return to I fund, but not to the extent that it will not out perform the S or C fund. IMHO.
:D Good luck!

pointman72

02-26-2007, 11:33 AM

IFT for 50% C Fund and 50% S Fund.

Really wanted to stay in the I Fund for another day but the dollar is fluxuating to much. Thought I'd take a chance on seasonality.

Good luck all :D

pointman72

02-27-2007, 10:37 AM

I'm currently 50% C Fund and 50% S Fund.

Experience tells me this is panic driven only.

My strategy is to stay invested until I see the USM bounce and then 100% in the OSM (I Fund).

Good luck everyone!!!! :D

pointman72

03-08-2007, 11:01 AM

IFT for COB today to 100% S Fund.

Dollar is up today (now +.44 was +.50) and believe it will be for the next couple days, not a time to be in the I Fund. Moving to S Fund to eliminate FVs and dollar offset.

Good luck all!!! :D :D :D

pointman72

03-09-2007, 10:56 AM

FundSurfer

03-09-2007, 10:58 AM

Good advice. A lot can happen to spook the market over a weekend.

GGal

03-09-2007, 03:26 PM

IFT for COB today to 100% G Fund.

Lesson Learned from last May "do not be in the market on a Monday morning during a correction". Paid the price last Monday because I forgot the rule.

Good luck all!!! :D :D

Hey, whydya wait so late to tell me? What do you expect me to do at this late date!!!!

LOL!

Well, if you're right, at least I have the 30 in G.

I'm such a chicken.

GA

pointman72

03-09-2007, 03:49 PM

GA,

I'm so out of synch with the market it makes me wonder if I'm even making changes in the right year! LOL

Really scared to offer advice or write to much. Last year it was the exact opposite, I could do no wrong. Felt like I was under a microscope since I was the leader for most of the year. So I quess this is where life is trying to teach me humility.

Sorry for now saying something earlier, I realize us Georgia folks are a little slow on the uptake. LOL

Will try and do better next time. Have a great weekend. :D

pointman72

03-09-2007, 03:51 PM

Typo:

Sorry for not saying something earlier, I realize us Georgia folks are a little slow on the uptake. LOL

pointman72

03-09-2007, 03:51 PM

See what I mean:

Sorry for not saying something earlier, I realize us Georgia folks are a little slow on the uptake. LOL

GGal

03-09-2007, 04:01 PM

Georgia,

I'm in Hawaii for a conference this week.
:D Good luck!

Where do I sign up for conference in Hawaii.........? We at Dept of Treasury are so mistreated.

GA

MADDOG

03-12-2007, 10:02 AM

Where do I sign up for conference in Hawaii.........? We at Dept of Treasury are so mistreated.

GA
I HOPE HE HAD A CHANCE TO EAT AT THE WRIGHT BROTHERS CAFE
AND WATCH THE LGB'S, LONG GREY BOATS, COME IN

GGal

03-12-2007, 11:29 AM

I HOPE HE HAD A CHANCE TO EAT AT THE WRIGHT BROTHERS CAFE
AND WATCH THE LGB'S, LONG GREY BOATS, COME IN

I hope he stayed off the tour Helicopters.

GA

GGal

03-13-2007, 07:35 PM

70% of my TSP got clobbered today (3/13/07)!!!!!!!

GA

Hey, I'm lost, this ain't my account talk.....

Birchtree

03-13-2007, 07:45 PM

Just don't walk on my parachute as you float down - thanx.

pointman72

09-30-2008, 10:50 AM

HI ALL,

Been a while. Been sitting in G waiting for the double bottom. Yesterday (before noon)went 50% I Fund, 25% C Fund and 25% G Fund. Move was based on watching the VIX.

Today I moved 100% I Fund. Bottomline: This has a number of positives, but primarily sets me up for a out, in, out action for October if necessary.

Good luck in October!

fedgolfer

09-30-2008, 11:28 AM

Welcome back Pointman... please post often, you were missed.

nnuut

09-30-2008, 01:07 PM

Good move PM! Good to hear from you, March is a while ago!
Norman

pointman72

03-13-2009, 01:16 PM

Has anyone checked Fedsmith.com today and looked at Title IV - TSP Enhancement?

Someone smart need to interrupt this for the MB.

:-)

nasa1974

03-13-2009, 03:37 PM

Has anyone checked Fedsmith.com today and looked at Title IV - TSP Enhancement?

Someone smart need to interrupt this for the MB.

:-)

Thanks Pointman, I will check it out.

nasa1974

03-13-2009, 03:48 PM

H.R. 1256

It establishes an automatic enrollment for new federal employees I believe into the "G" fund.

Also...

SEC. 403. QUALIFIED ROTH CONTRIBUTION PROGRAM.

(a) In General- Subchapter III of chapter 84 of title 5, United States Code, is amended by inserting after section 8432c the following:

Sec. 8432d. Qualified Roth contribution program

`(b) Authority To Establish- The Board shall by regulation provide for the inclusion in the Thrift Savings Plan of a qualified Roth contribution program, under such terms and conditions as the Board may prescribe.