Too much risk vs reward

[fuzzduzz]

100 % G fund. Everyone seems to be bullish that scares me. Semis breaking down (they usually lead the market)

[tsptalk]

fuzzduzz wrote:
100 % G fund. Everyone seems to be bullish that scares me. Semis breaking down (they usually lead the market)
Just to add to that...
This weeks sentiment survey showed 41% bullish, 28% bearish. That's actually not a bad ratio (not too bullish). Last week it was 55% bullish/ 16% bearish.

If this 28% bearish figuremoves up next week on any market weakness, I will go back to 100% stocks. We have seen good rallies when that bearish number goes over40% or when the bullish number drops below 40%.

Tom

[oneyoungbuck]

Where do you get the bullish-bearish ratios?

[Rolo]

Don't feed the bears.



:shock:

:s

:cool:



(Don't panic-sell, then miss a run-up.)



(Do people say that? 'cos I just made it up.)



heh, ya, Friday before my vacation next week..."got nuttin better ta do"

[tsptalk]

oneyoungbuck wrote:
Where do you get the bullish-bearish ratios?
I use decisionpoint.com (pay site) but I believe other sites like chartcraft.com also keep track.

[tsptalk]

Rolo wrote:
(Do people say that? 'cos I just made it up.)

They will now. :D

[Rolo]

hehe

It's even more funny when you think of the M.O.D. song "Don't feed the bears". They were an antisocial surf-punk-thrash band in the nineties. So you have to yell it when you say it. :dude:



So today was definitely volatile, and a bit up. It's like the bears had difficulty keeping the bulls from taking over, ya?

Options expired, were there more puts than calls? Does that matter? (I do not know what kind of an impact options expiring has.)

Whatdaheck happened to my oil tanker stocks today? Both of them slipped. Some breaking news or are they both just digesting some serious gains?

What's the feeling for Monday?

[tsptalk]

Rolo wrote:
Whatdaheck happened to my oil tanker stocks today? Both of them slipped. Some breaking news or are they both just digesting some serious gains?


I think the temporary drop toward the end of the day was a result of the news of Paul Johnson'sexecution.


I do not know what kind of an impact options expiring has
At the end of the day, the options final price is just that, final. Each move in a stock or index affects the price of the option and there is no tomorrow for them. So you cansee a lot of volatility as traders scramble to get rid of their calls and puts at the best price before the end of the day. I don't know if there were more puts or calls outstanding. There is a way to look that up and that is actually a good way to predict what will happen to a stock on expiration day. Option sellers want to make the most money they can and determining the best closing price of a stock for them to make the most money is a real good possibility where it will close. And they can manipulate the stock price to get it there buy buying or selling large quantities. I'm rambling... sorry. It's been a few years since I traded options but it brings back memories.


What's the feeling for Monday?
Man, I'm burnt out. So much uncertainty. I will put the brain on hold until Sunday night for that one;)

[Rod]

Rolo wrote:
hehe

It's even more funny when you think of the M.O.D. song "Don't feed the bears". They were an antisocial surf-punk-thrash band in the nineties. So you have to yell it when you say it. :dude:






Let's not forget about Bubble Butt!!!:dude:

"Bubble Butt, Bubble Butt She's SOOO Fat.... BUUU BUBBLE BUTT!!!!!!!!:cool:

Remember that one???

Sorry,now back to the market.... ;)

[Rolo]

tsptalk wrote:
Man, I'm burnt out. So much uncertainty. I will put the brain on hold until Sunday night for that one;)

I hear ya! I think I will just sit at 50/50C/S until there is some confirmation either way.