mlk_man's account talk [Archive]

07-15-2004, 09:37 PM

mlk_man wrote:
Basically I'm sort of following the 3-moving averages that are explained on http://www.tspmoney.com. But instead of waiting till the fast moving moves below or above the slower moving trends, I have "set" cut-offs of .30 above and .20 below the 30-day average price of each share of whichever fund. I do "tinker" with it a bit and buy-sell according to comments I see or feelings I get. But for the most part, I follow my simple plan.

I'm confused. In your excel spreadsheet, you emphasize the 63 day moving average, with a sell point .30 above that, and the buy point .20 below the 63 day moving average. You went out of your way to figure that out for us as an example. Yet in your quote above, you say that you look at the 30 day avg. as your get in get out point. Which one is more important. Humbly,

Joel

P.S.- I have been pasting in the prices and came up with the 63 day avg's of the stock funds as follows:

C

S

I

11.80

12.82

13.20

And the current share prices at:

11.69

12.75

13.28

Is this what you have? According to your system, we would not be in any of the funds, with the C fund .11 from a buy, the S fund .13 from a buy (both need to go lower by this much) and the I fund is way over the average. Am I on the right track with this? I'm still in the G fund 100%

Thanks for your help.

Joel

07-15-2004, 09:38 PM

Sorry about the graphics, that did not paste exactly how it was showing. I hope you can understand it.

Joel

07-16-2004, 07:08 AM

Yes you are correct, current 63-day moving averages are C - 11.8, S - 12.8, and I - 13.2. That would put"buy" signals at C - 11.6, S - 12.6 and I - 13.0. Current prices are C - 11.6, S - 12.7, and I - 13.2. So we have a "buy" signal for the C fund. I'm am currently 50% C and 50% S because of my own stupidity and bought too soon. I have to learn to just follow my rules and not listen to the stock market voices in my head. You know "buy mike buy", "no mike, don't do it!" Makes me think of "Animal House" :P

If I could post my charts I would, but don't seem to be able to. I'll send them to Tom and perhaps he can do it for me. I hope this is okay Tom. My moving averages shows me that the fast moving averages for the C and S funds are below the intermediate and fast moving averages but seem to leveling out, a very good sign. The I funds fast moving average just dipped below the intermediate average. I would stay away from it for awhile longer.

That's it. Going 100% C today because of my buy signal. Hopefully the S will drop a little more and we'll get a buy signal next week and get back into it at that time. Now if the prices drop further, don't get too concerned because they WILL come back up. They continued to drop in May but I wasn't doing my moving averages at that time so I had no way of knowing if the moving averages where leveling out or not.

100% C. :^ Hope this helps, good luck.

Frizz B.

07-16-2004, 07:43 AM

How true How true, I was listening to the voices saying July would be a good start for the climb of the stocks, where my differential theory said to move to the G fund. But I to believed that it was time for the stocks to start their rise out of this flux we have been in and I am getting killed right now. No one to blame but myself and my differential theory says it is time to get back in the stocks and so I stay, getting hammered. I still believe the stocks will rebound and I will break out even in the long run. But I missed a great opportunity to gain another 4-7% on my yearly total. :dude:

07-16-2004, 07:52 AM

Yepper, have to "kill" the voices! :s

I believe our systems very similiar, just use different termage and values. Relief is coming!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Hopefully.........................:oo

tsptalk

07-16-2004, 10:54 AM

mlk_man wrote:
If I could post my charts I would, but don't seem to be able to. I'll send them to Tom and perhaps he can do it for me. I hope this is okay Tom.

No problem.

mlk_man's chart... fund_charts.xls (http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/fund_charts.xls)

07-16-2004, 11:00 AM

Sorry all, forgot to label my series. The blue is fast moving-average, the pink is intermediate, and the yellow is slow.

07-16-2004, 11:28 AM

MLK man wrote:

Yes you are correct, current 63-day moving averages are C - 11.8, S - 12.8, and I - 13.2. That would put"buy" signals at C - 11.6, S - 12.6 and I - 13.0. Current prices are C - 11.6, S - 12.7, and I - 13.2. So we have a "buy" signal for the C fund."

I'm not trying to get technical, I'm just trying to understand this. Here goes: I don't understand why there would be a "buy" for the C fund when it is at 12.69 now (not 12.6) and it needs to get down to 12.6 for a buy. Am I wrong to suggest that there is some significance with a stock fund with a small share price having a differance between 12.6 and 12.69 (percentage is actually .7%) Is that significant? Just trying to learn. The S fund is at 12.75, not 12.7 as well. Myabe it works without being that precise. What do you think?

Joel

Mike

07-19-2004, 03:34 AM

Prices as of the end of Friday's trading are: C 11.64, S 12.65, and I 13.39.

07-19-2004, 07:22 AM

jgpalmerdds wrote:
I'm not trying to get technical, I'm just trying to understand this. Here goes: I don't understand why there would be a "buy" for the C fund when it is at 12.69 now (not 12.6) and it needs to get down to 12.6 for a buy. Am I wrong to suggest that there is some significance with a stock fund with a small share price having a differance between 12.6 and 12.69 (percentage is actually .7%) Is that significant? Just trying to learn. The S fund is at 12.75, not 12.7 as well. Myabe it works without being that precise. What do you think?

Joel

I only go down one decimal place and not two. Close enough for me and it seems to work best but do your own calculations and do what you think is best. This time it would of been best to wait till it dropped to the actual 12.63 for the C fund, but it doesn't always work that way. You definately don't won't to miss the rally up.

So, that being said, we now have a buy signal for the S fund so I'm going 50% C and 50% S today to take effect tomorrow morning.

Good luck.

tsptalk

07-19-2004, 11:21 AM

mlk_man wrote:
So, that being said, we now have a buy signal for the S fund so I'm going 50% C and 50% S today to take effect tomorrow morning.

Two petty comments mlk. On July 15th you wrote:

"I went 50% C and 50% S yesterday on a hunch. DON'T DO THAT! Still a bit early to jump in according to my system, but I did it anyway. I'll just go ahead and stay in since I feel a rebound is soon coming. Hopefully. If not, it'll be back up eventually. My advice is jump in on Friday if stocks are down again today."

And that's the last allocation change I see from you, so what is happening tomorrow (July 20th) that is different?

Also, as a reminder, we have a rule that says we can't say things like"yesterday I went 100% X fund....". If you make a change it has to be statedbefore the deadline on the day you make the allocation change. It sounds petty but itis to prevent people from Monday morning quarterbacking and eliminate anyquestions about when transactions took place.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/91.html (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/91.html)

Thanks!!
Tom

07-19-2004, 01:26 PM

You're right. I thought I was still 100% C fund. Forgot I bought into S fund early untill I went to change my allocation. Mainly just wanted to tell folks we got a buy signal for the S fund now. However, by the looks of the markets, we may challenge the May lows for the year. So prices may fall another 20 cents or so.

Petty? Hmmm, just an honest mistake. Don't shoot me please. :'

tsptalk

07-19-2004, 01:42 PM

Petty on my part.

I do appreciate you guys/gals who post your account info andtransactions. It helps the new folks see the thought process of making an allocation change.That's what this is all about. Helping people understand how they maywant to manage their money (trade / buy and hold etc.)

A couple of members posted their accounts in a buy and hold fashion but I don't hear from them much. I guess that's the beauty of diversifying or a long term approach. They don't have to think about it every day. :)

Tom

07-21-2004, 07:19 AM

Were you in C and S yesterday jgpalmerdds? If you had waited till the C hit 12.63, which is the 63-day moving average, you would of missed the little bounce back in the C fund yesterday. Of course, if you would of been 100% S, it would of been better. :cool:But that's why I only carry it out to one decimal place. I think I may actually start getting in and out when the current price gets to within .05 of the moving average. We'll see,, I have to do some calculations. We all know this not an "exact" science.

I love it when a system works like it should. Hopefully it will be up from here for awhile. :^

Oh, and don't expect the values to be right on all the time either. Most times it will drop a little further when youbuy and go up a little farther when you sell. I just try to minimize the damage and make sure I catch the bigger wave.

Currently up 13.10% with a combination of C, S, and I. Would be up 16.20% if I only used S and I. It's the conservative in me. :P

07-21-2004, 02:51 PM

No, I did not get in. The main reason is that I did not read your post until after 12:00 pm, so I did not get in the same day as you, and I am glad, as the market got killed today (which should be more of a reason for me to get in). I am also trying to see the consistancy of the system (I'm still new). I will run the numbers tonight, which will show a buy. Tell me, do you ever do mid day numbers when you see the market going one direction, let' s say you are close to a buy, and it is heading into the buy range at 11:00 a.m., do you then make a trade effective for the next day? I ask this because sometimes I don't get a look at my computer until after 12:00 noon.

Basically, I'm not in as of right now. If I place the order, it won't be effective until Friday. What do you think?

Also, I understand about not getting in at the bottom or out at the top, no one can consistantly do that. The way to look at it, is lets say go for 2% a month (consistant singles and doubles) and not worry about the home run, then at the end of the year you look back and you are up 24%!! That is what I see in your system and the reason I am so interested. Thanks for your time.

Joel

07-22-2004, 08:15 AM

I'm finally in, starting tomorrow, as I made a change from 100% G to 50% C, 50% S as you did earlier. And yes, those two averages fell .2 below the 63 day moving average finally after yesterday. We will see how this goes. Of course, I'm shorting the market (with margin) in my private IRA money which is quite a contradiction to this, I guess. Take care.

Joel

07-22-2004, 08:48 AM

Good call on waiting till now Joel. :^ The funds may still fall a little further, but it's all okay. Actually, it would be nice for you if they did fall more today.

With my sell at 30 cents above and buy at 20 cents below the moving average, I'm looking for about a 4% gain. Your thought of attempting a 2% gain each month is interesting, but I don't think it would be feesible with the TSP because of our one day delay and you don't know if the markets will go up or down on that one day. Could try with a private broker just make sure your trading enough money to cover expenses.

Let me know if you do. I may try some calculations later to see how it would work. My first impression is probably not, but we'll see.

Good luck to ya,

Mike

Rolo

07-22-2004, 09:20 AM

jgpalmerdds wrote:
The way to look at it, is lets say go for 2% a month (consistant singles and doubles) and not worry about the home run, then at the end of the year you look back and you are up 24%!!
hehe, I tried thinking that way with my brokerage account, trying for 5%/month. It doesn't seem to work that way, at least not with my über-volatile holdings and not in this market. In a bull market, it seems to work, I vyed for 20%/month in 2003 and I did achieve that (78% for the year, 30% higher than the highest index).

I still bear the premise in my mind as the closest thing to an anchor to sanity, as it usually forced me to lock-in profits and mitigate losses in order to maintain some semblence of consistency. In fact, I am glad you said that, I needed the reminder.

07-22-2004, 11:12 AM

I just threw the 2% out as an example. Thanks for the info. I'm just trying MLK's formula in it's purest form. Yes, the one day delay is always a problem. That is why that I asked if you ever look at the market in the morning when you are on the border of selling/buying and trade before 12:00 EST? Like today, let's say you are close to a buy signal in the S fund, and you see the S fund at this point down 1.3%, do you make the call before noon to buy so you the end of day price? Just wondering, and thanks for your help.

Joel

P.S.- my timing service is looking real smart right now as a 14% loss (with margin)has turned into a 5% gain or so shorting the market, as long as you stayed in all this time. It is a longer trend timing model

07-22-2004, 01:29 PM

I haven't tried to time the market midday. I just wait till the end of the session. As you can see, the market is coming back up now. You can try if you like and see what happens. It's sometimes nice to stay where you're at for another day because sometimes the market goes up or a little more accordingly. Sometimes not though. :shock:

Starting to look like we might reach the May lows for the year. I was little afraid of that but not a big deal. Hopefully it means the end is near!:^

07-23-2004, 08:18 AM

Hang in there folks, relief is coming. Although we continue to fall, especially the S fund, my system has tried to minimize the losses. If you're following my system, we bought C fund at 11.64 and the S fund 12.63. Current prices are C - 11.59 and S - 12.47. So we have lost a bit more with the S fund but stand to gain back more also.

If you were a buy and hold person, you would currently be watching the S fund fall from $13.22 all the way to $12.47. OUCH!!

Now the bad news. In May the S fund fell all the way to $12.16. :shock:Will this happen again? Don't know. I do know that the S fund fell for 17 straight days in May then sarting coming back. right now we have been falling for 15 days. I'm actually expecting a rebound either today or Monday, probably Monday. I'm only hoping that we don't take a big hit today. Mainly because of my individual stocks not my TSP cause I'm in till we come back up now. You could get out and wait till things come back up, but you stand the chance of missing something big.

Again, if you look back to May, we bought the S fund for $12.78 on May 3rd. We had to wait until June 28th to sell it at $13.07 for a 29 cent gain. So sometimes it takes awhile, but eventually we get a gain out of it.

The I fund is getting close to a "buy" signal, I would look for that early next week and then we'll jump into that also.

Good luck all, have a good weekend .

Mike

Rolo

07-23-2004, 08:54 AM

mlk_man wrote:
I'm only hoping that we don't take a big hit today. Mainly because of my individual stocks not my TSP cause I'm in till we come back up now.
hehehe, You're not the only one. Ow...quit it.

What stocks do you hold? I am questioning my buys this week, SUN and GI, but I am hanging in there for right now. Do you use similar MA's to buy/sell stocks as well?

07-23-2004, 09:25 AM

I'm mainly going with small companies because I'm only playing around with $1000 to see how it goes. The companies I like most are the ones trading around their 52-week lows that have company big wigs with stock in the company. You're two choices look like they're trading around the top of their averages. :shock:But I'm probably wrong about my thinking. Just starting out. :P

Currently I have VSL, MTE, AAI, SFP and SONSE.

07-23-2004, 09:58 AM

Mike,

So right now, with 50% S, 50% C, do we take a sixth out of each and allocate a full 33% to I when there is a buy? Leaving it 33% for each of the stock funds? Thanks.

By the way, Profunds Inc. has a lot of leveraged funds that follow averages like the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, S & P 500 and others. You can trade them through Scottrade online and pay NO FEES even if you only hold them for a day. I have been with Scottrade for over 2 years and they are great. Also, if you make a change before 3:00 pm on a day, you get that end of day's price! Consequently, Profunds even has Bear market inverse leveraged funds that trade the same way. So if you go into a long term bear market, you can make money. You could definately use your system, acheive nice returns and lessen your risk. Check out Profunds.com and Scottrade, a great combo!

Joel

07-23-2004, 11:18 AM

Thanks I'll do that. My account is with Scottrade. Not doing to well with my individuals right now. Hopefully it will turn around when the market comes back up. An inverse fund would be nice, do they have monetary restrictions? I mentioned RYVNX, which follow the inverse of the NASDAQ, to Rolo and he informed me you have to invest $50000 minimum. Don't quite have that much yet.:X

Also, I have decided to adjust my "buy" and "sell" signals a little bit. I told you that I typically only carry out my numbers to one decimal place. After looking at past prices and transactions, I believe I will carry the prices to two decimal places and "buy" and "sell" when the stock price is within .05 of my signal.

For example, if my "buy" signal is $12.68, I would "buy" when the price of the fund is within $12.63 - $12.73. (12.68 +- .05) Occasionally the price will not drop exactly to the moving average price. On Feb 04, 2004 the S fund fell to $12.69 and the price of our "buy" signal was $12.68. I was only carrying my prices one decimal place, 12.6, so I bought. But if you were waiting for $12.68, you would missed the boat and not made a 4.16% profit in 5 days! Just a little "tweek".

Good Luck,

Mike

Oh by the way, the fund allocation is just a "personal" choice at the time. Which ever funds are performing the best is what I will get into. Since we can gain more in the S and I, I'll probably go 50 % S and 50% I. But, the S fund has dropped the most so it stands to gain the most back. We'll see.

07-23-2004, 12:03 PM

What are your feelings on Krispy Kreme(KKD) Rolo? I'm thinking they may make a comeback. At least to about $25 a share.

tsptalk

07-23-2004, 12:20 PM

I won't sugar coat it, that stock has some holes in it.

Booo! :u bad joke

07-23-2004, 12:38 PM

LOL :P

fuzzduzz

07-23-2004, 06:28 PM

I like that tom :l

07-26-2004, 07:21 AM

We currently have a "buy" signal for the I fund at $12.96 per share. However, since the S fund is standing at $12.31 which is 37 cents below it's 63 day- moving-average, I'm going to make a move to 100% S fund this morning because it has the most to gain back.

Good luck.

Mike

07-26-2004, 10:02 AM

jgpalmerdds wrote:

By the way, Profunds Inc. has a lot of leveraged funds that follow averages like the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, S & P 500 and others. You can trade them through Scottrade online and pay NO FEES even if you only hold them for a day. I have been with Scottrade for over 2 years and they are great. Also, if you make a change before 3:00 pm on a day, you get that end of day's price! Consequently, Profunds even has Bear market inverse leveraged funds that trade the same way. So if you go into a long term bear market, you can make money. You could definately use your system, acheive nice returns and lessen your risk. Check out Profunds.com and Scottrade, a great combo!

Joel

Thanks for the Profunds info Joel! It's great having a fund that tracks the inverse of the major indices. Should make for bigger profits in my personal Scottrade account. I only which our TSP plan had inverse funds. :(

Mike

Rolo

07-26-2004, 10:23 AM

tsptalk wrote:
I won't sugar coat it, that stock has some holes in it.

Booo! :u bad joke

hahaha! That is so cheesy, one cannot help but love it.

KKD's chart looks good over the last week...it had quite the insta-correction a couple of months ago like so many had. I remember that it was quite the rage last year. I'll have to look at the fundamentals to see if it is something I would want to buy for value. If its fundamentals are strong, the beaten-down price may make it an attractive buy. The thing is, many stocks will be like that and we want to pick only the best of them.

07-26-2004, 11:04 AM

KKD is up again today, :^

07-26-2004, 11:12 AM

By the way, the timing service that I am in has us in all these inverse funds (if you choose the most aggressive strategy) If you don't want to be aggressive, you stay on the sidelines. It has been the same since 4/30/04 (short or out, that is) Personally, there has been about a 10% swing that I really did not take advantage of. In other words, in the middle of May, I was down about 11-13%, short with margin. Now, I am up about 4-5%, short with margin. Fortunately, I stayed in the whole time. But I am wondering if there was any way to take advantage of those short spurts either way without driving myself crazy.

How do you feel about a strategy of getting in a fund when it is above it's 10 day average and out (or inverse) when it is below? I back tested this for the first 7 months of the year. I'm talking about personal funds here, where you can make the call at 2:59 pm and get that days price. Backtesting the Russell 2000, long only with this was about 20%, the Nasdaq 100 was about the same. If you got into the inverse it would even be better. I would simplfy it and only choose one, or maybe just two of the indexes to do this. Also, there would be no fees for this as long as I stayed within the Profunds, Rydex, or Potomac groups. It would be a little harder with the TSP stuff since the day lag, and I can't ever seem to look at the price before noon. I think I'm going to try this 10 day strategy, and I have dumped the timing service for now ($29.95/month)

Right now, all TSP stock funds are below the 10 day average, as well as the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, and S/P 500. That is why I'm shorting the indexes (with Margin, of course) I'm a little nervous about being in C and S right now. Later,

Joel

07-26-2004, 11:18 AM

As far as the minimal dollar amounts per Profund. I know some of them have large $ figures but that is bunk. I have gotten in with a lot less. Sometimes the Scottrade people call me and mention that to me, and most of the time they put it through. The Scottrade people tell me that it is up to the Profunds people at the other end, maybe on their mood for the day. For instance, right now, in my kids college funds, I have about $1500 invested each in the double inverse Russell 2000, double inverse Nasdaq 100, double inverse S/P 500. Check out the minimum invest $ and you will see that they are listed as a lot more. Just ignore the minimums and trade and see what happens. I hope that this helps.

Joel

07-26-2004, 11:31 AM

Didn't realize they had minimum requirements. Hmmmm, guess I'll take your advice and try anyway. Right now, if I had been 100% invested in only the S fund for the year, with my system I'd be up 15%. If I was invested in the 2X ultrafund, it might be 30%! And, if I had gotten into the 2X inverse ultrafund instead of having to go the G fund when I was "out", who knows what it would be up now. Very exciting. Hope they let me trade with my measly monies.

08-03-2004, 08:37 AM

This is written in mlk_man's account forum:

mlk_man wrote:

mlk_man wrote:
Moving to 100% S fund this morning.OH well, at least I got the S fund at 12.18 with 50% of my funds. NOw let's get that price back up!!!
http://www.fedsmith.com (http://www.fedsmith.com/) just posted the fund returns for the period Jun 25th, 2004 to Aug 2nd, 2004. C fund is -2.26%, S fund is -4.72%, and I fund is -3.41%. If you had followed my system, your returns would be C fund +0.5%, S fund-0.95%, and I fund +1.16%.

I was able tosalvage my S fund by buying it at 12.18 with half my savings (took it out of C fund), thus bringing my S fund return for the same time frame to +.88%.

So you can still see that my system easily beats buy and hold strategies. Also remember that the S fund has a long way to come back up before I "sell" so I'm expecting even bigger gains when all is said and done. This includes the other two funds because if you had bought them, you'd still be hanging onto them. :^

08-03-2004, 10:42 AM

Really jumpy today.

Timer

08-03-2004, 11:54 AM

mlk_man wrote:

http://www.fedsmith.com (http://www.fedsmith.com/) just posted the fund returns for the period Jun 25th, 2004 to Aug 2nd, 2004. C fund is -2.26%, S fund is -4.72%, and I fund is -3.41%. If you had followed my system, your returns would be C fund +0.5%, S fund-0.95%, and I fund +1.16%.

I was able tosalvage my S fund by buying it at 12.18 with half my savings (took it out of C fund), thus bringing my S fund return for the same time frame to +.88%.

WTG Milk :^

Timer

08-03-2004, 11:59 AM

mlk_man wrote:
Really jumpy today.Hey Milk, I'm 35C and 65S. What do you think about the S?

08-03-2004, 12:42 PM

I'm actually thinking of getting out of S for either Friday or Monday. Greenspan meets again Tuesday so probably get another rate hike then which isn't good for the S fund. Probably go either C or I. C most likely. Appears as though S maybe consiladating for a lower average price. We'll see tomorrow.

08-03-2004, 01:04 PM

I'm feeling another day late day rally if there are no terroist attacks again. :%

Timer

08-03-2004, 05:23 PM

mlk_man wrote:
I'm actually thinking of getting out of S for either Friday or Monday. Greenspan meets again Tuesday so probably get another rate hike then which isn't good for the S fund. Probably go either C or I. C most likely. Appears as though S maybe consiladating for a lower average price. We'll see tomorrow.
Thanks m_m. I don't have a system like you but I've observed that when S takes off, I follows later. Can you comment on that? Maybe with your system, you don't pay attention to generalities so much.

08-04-2004, 07:29 AM

Timer wrote:

Thanks m_m. I don't have a system like you but I've observed that when S takes off, I follows later. Can you comment on that? Maybe with your system, you don't pay attention to generalities so much.

Actually you are correct, for this year anyway. Not sure about other years. 3 out of 4 times this year that I have gotten "buy" signals for the S fund, the I fund has followed within 5 days. :^

Also noticed that I can't spell anymore. I may be getting investor's brain-hemorrhage! :shock:

08-05-2004, 01:19 PM

mlk_man wrote:
jgpalmerdds wrote:

By the way, Profunds Inc. has a lot of leveraged funds that follow averages like the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, S & P 500 and others. You can trade them through Scottrade online and pay NO FEES even if you only hold them for a day. I have been with Scottrade for over 2 years and they are great. Also, if you make a change before 3:00 pm on a day, you get that end of day's price! Consequently, Profunds even has Bear market inverse leveraged funds that trade the same way. So if you go into a long term bear market, you can make money. You could definately use your system, acheive nice returns and lessen your risk. Check out Profunds.com and Scottrade, a great combo!

Joel

Thanks for the Profunds info Joel! It's great having a fund that tracks the inverse of the major indices. Should make for bigger profits in my personal Scottrade account. I only which our TSP plan had inverse funds. :(

Mike

Hey Joel,

I've located a fund that inverses the S&P 500 and you only have to have $2500 to invest in it, $750 for an IRA. Unlike what Profund charges. Just in case Scottrade stops allowing you to invest smaller amounts. :D

08-05-2004, 01:22 PM

jgpalmerdds wrote:
As far as the minimal dollar amounts per Profund. I know some of them have large $ figures but that is bunk. I have gotten in with a lot less. Sometimes the Scottrade people call me and mention that to me, and most of the time they put it through. The Scottrade people tell me that it is up to the Profunds people at the other end, maybe on their mood for the day. For instance, right now, in my kids college funds, I have about $1500 invested each in the double inverse Russell 2000, double inverse Nasdaq 100, double inverse S/P 500. Check out the minimum invest $ and you will see that they are listed as a lot more. Just ignore the minimums and trade and see what happens. I hope that this helps.

Joel

Hey Joel,

I've located a fund that inverses the S&P 500 and you only have to have $2500 to invest in it, $750 for an IRA. Unlike what Profund charges. Just in case Scottrade stops allowing you to invest smaller amounts. :DIt is DRCVX.

Good Luck,

M_M

08-05-2004, 09:12 PM

MLK,

I noticed that you indicated about getting out of the S fund early next week. Unless there is a dramatic change in the market going upward, we will take a loss on the "sell", true? Do we just wait this out and wait till it goes .2 above (buy price or 63 day price) I'm not sure. All that I know is I'm getting killed overall since I got in this time. Also, what about new money coming in on payday. Do you apply it to the S fund (if that is what you bought), etc if already invested in those funds? Please respond.

By the way, the 10 day average showed an uptrend, I swithced to "long" and got killed for a 7% loss in 5 days (with margin) I should of listened to the timing service! By the way, I'm some 18% down since Aprilin my Roth IRA, isn't that a great thing! I had good gains in the beginning of the year, started the timing service on a late "buy" (on the waydown) signal, changed to long in the middle of their sell signal and now have changed back. That equals to 18% loss since April! Isn't emotion beautiful. I'm as confused as ever. Dollar Cost Average vs. MLK formula Vs timingtrend service. I'm not sure which way to go?

Joel

08-06-2004, 07:28 AM

jgpalmerdds wrote:
MLK,

I noticed that you indicated about getting out of the S fund early next week. Unless there is a dramatic change in the market going upward, we will take a loss on the "sell", true? Do we just wait this out and wait till it goes .2 above (buy price or 63 day price) I'm not sure. All that I know is I'm getting killed overall since I got in this time. Also, what about new money coming in on payday. Do you apply it to the S fund (if that is what you bought), etc if already invested in those funds? Please respond.

By the way, the 10 day average showed an uptrend, I swithced to "long" and got killed for a 7% loss in 5 days (with margin) I should of listened to the timing service! By the way, I'm some 18% down since Aprilin my Roth IRA, isn't that a great thing! I had good gains in the beginning of the year, started the timing service on a late "buy" (on the waydown) signal, changed to long in the middle of their sell signal and now have changed back. That equals to 18% loss since April! Isn't emotion beautiful. I'm as confused as ever. Dollar Cost Average vs. MLK formula Vs timingtrend service. I'm not sure which way to go?

Joel
Wrote this in another forum on here:
Just a reminder, back on April 30th I got a "buy" signal for the S fund so I went 100% S at $12.78 per share. I didn't get a "sell" signal till June 25th. I "sold" my shares then at $13.07 for a 2.27% gain. Almost 2 months of sitting on my a** picking my nose! Sometimes it takes awhile, sometimes it doesn't. In March I bought and sold the S fund in 7 days, for a 4.35% gain!

Just hang tough folks...............:*

Eventually the market will be back up, hang tight. I'm sticking with the S fund till I make some money back, was just my emotions talking earlier. Had to take them in the alley and beat the crap out of em! ;)

I usually wait until 30 cents above the 63-day moving average, but the 63-day moving average for the S is currently $12.68. It was $12.88 before this current slide so I''m going to stay in until my moving-averages chart shows a down trend. Remember, during a prolonged up-trend, just stay in for the ride unless we get some little ups and downs along the way. That's where my "system" works best. I'll let you know when to get out.

As far as new monies coming in, I just keep all mine in the G fund and move it around when I get I "buy" signal. If you know when it is deposited, then I guess you could put it somewhere else depending on if we are going up or down.

What "timing service" are you speaking of? You're not following my system for your IRA?

By the way, since my current "buy" signal for the S, which I bought at $12.63, I'm "only" down -4.1%. That makes my gains for the year still +11% for the S and I still haven't "sold" my current shares yet.Know where buy and holders are at this year for the S? -2.55%!!

Stick with it, it'll be ahhhright...........:^I'm still banking I make "AT LEAST" 20 - 35% this year. :D

Oh and I've figured out that working with the inverse funds in Scottrade, I should be able to make 40 - 80% profits a year, if not more. :shock:

08-06-2004, 07:46 AM

By the way, not to confuse you anymore, but I'm gonna be "tweaking" my system a bit. During a down trending market, when the intermediate and long moving-averages are going down, I'm going to invert my "buy" and "sell" signals. I'll "buy" at 30 cents below the 63-day moving average and "sell" at 20 cents above instead of vice-versa. Only makes sense to me and having back-tested it, could of made a little more money. ;)

Rod

08-06-2004, 07:51 AM

mlk_man wrote:
As far as new monies coming in, I just keep all mine in the G fund and move it around when I get I "buy" signal. If you know when it is deposited, then I guess you could put it somewhere else depending on if we are going up or down.

That's what I'm doing wrong. Thanx! I currently have mine in S hoping to "buy low"and have already lost about 60% of my payday contribution.

From now on, I'm allocating my payday contributions to G, then moving in for the kill to "buy low".

:^

08-06-2004, 08:54 PM

As far as the private IRA money goes, I'm with a timing service, which out in the open, I'm not a loud to say. I've been threatened by them already before because they were "monitoring" this site. I went away with it for a week, using 10 day averages and got in "long" against their signal and lost 8% in 5 days (that would have been an 8% gain if I would of stayed put short. Fortunatly, I got back in short today and enjoyed an 4.8% turnaround, short (on margin). I'm fully invested in Russell 2000 short, on margin, right now. I've taken your advice and will probably be staying away from the S and P 500, sticking with the Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 because they are more volatile, and there is more chance for longs and shorts, and bigger gains. I've got an 18% loss to make up, and then some.

Tell me, how are you going to do your "system" with Scottrade and Profunds? Which funds are you going to invest in? I would test their "minimums" and as long as you have a $1000 or so, I think they will let you in. Later.

08-09-2004, 08:14 AM

I probablly won't start with the Profunds until next year. I have to save up some money to put in my account. I'm taking a real beating now because I'm invested in individual stocks and we all know how the market has been doing. :X

I will probably invest in the ultra small cap fund (UAPIX) when I get a "buy" signal and the inverse ultra small cap fund (UCPIX) when my "sell" signal comes around. :^

08-09-2004, 06:08 PM

That is exactly the approach I'm going to start taking. In fact, right now to simplify, I'm only into the Russell 2000 short. The S and P just doesn't move enough for me to say in it. I would heavily look into your system with the Nasdaq 100 as well, because it has very distinct ups and downs, and the return potential either wayis much greater. So tell me, have you thought about how your system would work with long's and shorts? Would you implement both? It is a lot more confusing when you have a choice of short vs. long as opposed to long vs. cash.

Joel

08-10-2004, 06:58 AM

I'd probably have to pay more attention to the moving averages to tell me when the market is trending up or down. It's trending down now so going short would be best. We'd still the dips or bumps depending on which way the market is going and my system would help to play these. Should be interesting. Good luck!

Anyone know what time Greenspan speaks today? I may make a move to the G or F fund depending on what happens today or tomorrow. I hate to the "hit", but might be better in the long run. I'll make it up later. This has been a strange time and no system is perfect. Sure which we had inverse funds in our TSP!!

Rolo

08-10-2004, 05:22 PM

Joel, mlk, are you long or short in anything right now or as you as reluctant as I? I dumped everything (except my long-term keepers,SIRI & XMSR) so I have cash.

08-10-2004, 07:07 PM

Rolo,

I'm Shorting the Russell 2000, on margin with my private IRA money, and I'm following MLK's formula with my TSP money. I was in the G fund (no short option) until I convinced myself to go with MLK (which I still Have confidence in) It is really weird, but one is short (IRA) and one is long (TSP) When the market goes down, I come out ahead though because I have 8 X more money in my private IRA right now, and I'm shorting it on margin. Like today, I took a 4.5% hit on my IRA account, but the overall short trend is up about 8% since April 30th. It is 3 1/2 months into this trend, and it is really tough to sit there when the market goes up (while being short), but they recommend staying put, which I didn't, and got burned. I went long on my own last week and missed an 8% (on margin) downswing (I lost 8% going long) That is what I am doing, trying to feel out a shorter term system in the TSP while sticking to a longer trend model in the IRA's. I tell you, if we hit a long bear or bull market, watch out with this trend timing. Had I been with them last year, long, I would have returned 100% or so on my money (that is with margin, of course). I also would make a killing in the bear (going short) I hope this helps.

Joel

08-11-2004, 06:59 AM

Rolo,

I'm not currently shorting anything, I'm waiting for my two stocks to come up before I dump them and start playing with the inverse funds. My stocks are currently NT and SWW. I really like SIRI for the next few months with football season coming up and they have the NFL rights. When do you think you would see the stock price go up if they get a large sells spike within the next month? After Q3 earnings report?

Also, even though I''ve "lost" roughly 4.28% since July 19th, but not really since I did buy 50% of my S shares at 12.18 on July 26th, I'm still up about 10% for the year. Which is better than most. I expect to have more of a profit when I finally "sell" my S shares. Need more days like Tues. :^

m_m

08-11-2004, 07:13 AM

Check out the top two headlines for NT though yahoo. :^

Rolo

08-11-2004, 01:15 PM

NT may be promising. Let's see what their earnings report shows Aug 19.

Oneproblem is that there are so many wireless providers that the competition is fierce. Some insider info: Nortel is seriously vying for the military's blessing for Voice-over-Internet Protocol (VoIP), which will eventually replace analog copper lines. (I am one of the guys saying, "Let'sditch this old junk already!") Cisco has a nice system, but they blew it and are retreating. Plus, they are expensive.

At a quick glance, SWW looks promising technically and fundamentally. I'm keeping my eye on both of these.

SIRI shocked me. It actually fell below my cost basis. :( I still hold-and-forget it and XMSR.

08-12-2004, 06:41 AM

Two more for you to keep an eye on that I just bought into for the long term. PNAMF, $1 per share, and PWRM, $2 per share. Both are fairly new companies. PNAMF is a gold mining company and PWRM is a biotech company. PWRM is trying to come up with an early detection diagnostic test for certain cancers and other diseases. Can you imagine if they succeed at this? I might actually go in for a colon cancer test! Take a little blood and presto! :^

08-12-2004, 12:49 PM

There is a God!!!!!!!!!!!! Check out PWRM. It's up 45% today!!! I just bought it yesterday. :shock:

Rod

08-12-2004, 02:42 PM

mlk_man wrote:
There is a God!!!!!!!!!!!! Check out PWRM. It's up 45% today!!! I just bought it yesterday. :shock:

Silly rabbit!!!:POF COURSE GOD exists!!!:^

Rolo

08-12-2004, 03:25 PM

mlk_man wrote:
There is a God!!!!!!!!!!!! Check out PWRM. It's up 45% today!!! I just bought it yesterday. :shock:
Sell it now!

heh

I said much the same thing about SIRI and "Oh, that's a long term holding" approach has cost me. I fear commitment now.

08-13-2004, 01:12 AM

Rolo wrote:

Sell it now!

heh

I said much the same thing about SIRI and "Oh, that's a long term holding" approach has cost me. I fear commitment now.
Funny, she told me the same thing just this past weekend!:oo

puertorico

08-13-2004, 08:50 AM

Mlk_man

Rod

From now on, I'm allocating my payday contributions to G, then moving in for the kill to "buy low".

:^

Thanks guys I will be moving today the new money to G too.I was putting

all in C fund but most of the time losing half.Will do it right now...:^

Nice strategy to cut loses and play safeonnew money;)

Rod

08-13-2004, 08:55 AM

puertorico wrote:
Mlk_man

Rod

From now on, I'm allocating my payday contributions to G, then moving in for the kill to "buy low".

:^

Thanks guys I will be moving today the new money to G too.I was putting

all in C fund but most of the time losing half.Will do it right now...:^

Nice strategy to cut loses and play safeonnew money;)

Very good strategy. I don't know why I was blind to it before.:P

08-13-2004, 09:21 AM

Rod wrote:
puertorico wrote:
Mlk_man

Rod

From now on, I'm allocating my payday contributions to G, then moving in for the kill to "buy low".

:^

Thanks guys I will be moving today the new money to G too.I was putting

all in C fund but most of the time losing half.Will do it right now...:^

Nice strategy to cut loses and play safeonnew money;)

Very good strategy. I don't know why I was blind to it before.:P

Your welcome. That's what we're for, to help each other out. Now if only the market would help a little..............:oo

08-13-2004, 10:43 AM

MLK,

Are we still in C and S, with new money going into G? Fortunately, my "pile" in this account is not very big, so losses are in the hundreds, not thousands.

Joel

08-13-2004, 10:59 AM

I'm 100% S with new money going into G. I hope we get some upward bounce soon so I can get out till after the election. Next week may be good since retailers are about the onlyones reporting. Hopefully they will all have good reports like Walmart and Target. Keep your fingers crossed!! :^

Probably be best to be in C fund right now though........

Rod

08-13-2004, 02:46 PM

100% S? Wow, you are a risk taker.;) Hopefully it will pay off for you.

I'm currently 30%C 50%S 20%I

All new monies going into G.

tsptalk

08-13-2004, 09:02 PM

mlk_man wrote:
I'm 100% S with new money going into G.
I'll probably join you oncewe get confirmation of a bottom - either higher low, the follow through day etc.

08-19-2004, 08:52 AM

I'll be keeping an eye on the marketstoday and tomorrowand if they appear to be going up by 11:30am Friday, I think I'll go 100% G for Monday since Tom said the week after options week is typically below average. We've had a nice little run this week so why risk losing it........Maybe we'll gain 2.59% by Friday so I won't lose anything when I cash in. :^

08-19-2004, 08:59 AM

mlk_man wrote:
I'm 100% S with new money going into G. I hope we get some upward bounce soon so I can get out till after the election. Next week may be good since retailers are about the onlyones reporting. Hopefully they will all have good reports like Walmart and Target. Keep your fingers crossed!! :^

Probably be best to be in C fund right now though........
Did I actually say it might be best to be in the C now? :x

08-19-2004, 09:17 AM

How come you are not following your system of selling .3 over the 63 day moving average? It sounds to me like you are trying to get out and break even? By the way, I have new money in G, shouldn't we be looking for a "buy" with this at .2 below the 63 day moving average? Just trying to understand.

Joel

08-19-2004, 09:26 AM

Have to be willing to adjust sometimes my man. We are in a downtrending market at this time and I haven't used my "system" for times like this yet. You still have to pay attention to what "other" things are going. Breaking even is not too bad at this poiint, we went farther down than I had expected. Still up 12.46% for the year remember. Not many can say that.Just a termporary thing cause I think we will prosper as weget nearer the Republican convention.As Bush's ratings raise, should begood for the market. :cool:

08-20-2004, 07:24 AM

Well I've decided to stick with my guns and stay 100%S fund. The moving averages chart has hit a critical point. The fast moving average has moved back up to the intermediate moving average. This happened a couple of weeks ago but it was unable to break through and instead began to decline again. Hopefully this time it will bust through and we'll see more gains.

Keep hope alive!!! :D

Currentlly up 11.1% for the year. :^Buy and holders, if only invested in the S fund, are -5.82% for the year.

Rod

08-20-2004, 12:12 PM

mlk_man wrote:
Well I've decided to stick with my guns and stay 100%S fund. The moving averages chart has hit a critical point. The fast moving average has moved back up to the intermediate moving average. This happened a couple of weeks ago but it was unable to break through and instead began to decline again. Hopefully this time it will bust through and we'll see more gains.

Keep hope alive!!! :D

Currentlly up 11.1% for the year. :^Buy and holders, if only invested in the S fund, are -5.82% for the year.

:^

Timer

08-20-2004, 11:55 PM

mlk_man wrote:
Currentlly up 11.1% for the year. :^Buy and holders, if only invested in the S fund, are -5.82% for the year.

Way to go m_m!:!

When you say 'buy and holders', what distribution of investment are you assuming? 20% in each fund?

Pete1

08-21-2004, 12:00 PM

YTD 100% S fund buy and hold through 8/19 = -1.87%

YTD 100% S fund buy and hold through 8/20 =-.32%

YTD 20% in each fund buy and hold through 8/19 .70%

YTD 20% in each fund buy and hold through 8/20 1.09%

rokid

08-21-2004, 01:23 PM

Wow,3.95% is a pretty big discrepancy! Is it -5.82% or -1.87% this year for S Fund "buy and holders"?

08-21-2004, 04:34 PM

How did you figure -5.82%? Tom's numbers on his "results" page are different for YTD (it is much less of a negative number). Are you assuming that people have been dollar cost averaging each pay period, maybe?

P.S.-Are we putting "new money anywhere, with the rise in the averages?

Joel

08-23-2004, 07:20 AM

I always put all my new money in the G fund to be on the "safe" side and it's easier than having to worry about when it goes in and where I should put it.

Actually Pete1 was more correct than myself on buy and holders. I must of subtracted twice or something. I just go to the TSP home page and use their monthly return section for each fund then I figured out August myself. So, if only invested in S fund, buy and holders are +0.45 for the year. They are down -.40% for Aug. But, if you take the S share price to start the year, $12.48 and subtract the current price, $12.44, it is -.32% for the year like Pete said. Maybe TSP did something different, who knows.

I am presently up 12.65% for the year if only invested in the S fund. Don't feel like figuring the rest of em out. :P

Thanks for clearing that up for us Pete1.

08-23-2004, 07:23 AM

Pete1

08-23-2004, 08:31 AM

No problem. :)

08-23-2004, 02:47 PM

So are we "buying" yet with new money (the amount in the G fund) or are we waiting for another oppurtunity?

Joel

08-24-2004, 10:13 AM

That is actually just a personal call you'll have to make. I usually just leave mine in the G fund till I move my other money back in the G then move everything at once. Usually only in there a couple months at most so I really don't get too concerned about it.

09-01-2004, 07:38 AM

Okay all, "tweaking" my "system" again. ;)Sorry, lol. Not making a move right now, still 100% S, just wanted to explain what I'm gonna do when I do move so it can soak in.

I'm going to add "dollar cost averaging" to the mix. This is sort of what I did last time I had a "buy" signal. On July 16th I got a "buy" signal for the S at $12.65 so I went 50% S effective July 17th. (I was already 100% C at the time). As we know, prices continued to fall. On July 23rd I decided to go 100% S effective July 24th. This means I was able to "buy" S at $12.18 for a "dollar cost average" per share of $12.41. This afforded me the opportunity to make more money.

That being said, I'm actually up for the month instead of being down. ;)I'm still waiting for another "sell" signal. If I was doing 30-day moving averages instead of 60-day, I'd have a "sell" signal now at $12.48. But, my 60-day signal is $12.80 right now so I'm sticking to it. Will probably drop more in the coming days because we are losing those big days in June.

So my system now includes 4 basic strategies:

1) my origanal idea of buying at 20centsunder the 60-day moving average and selling at30 cents over(unless we are in a down-trending market, as we have been, then the concept is inverted. ( I may end up changing this to a % rather than an actual price at some point something like 2.5% instead of 30 cents, and 1.5% instead of 20cents)

2)Follow 5-day(fast), 21-day(intermediate), and 63-day(slow) moving averages. The fast moving average for the S fund was quickly heading back up to the slow average but has now leveled off a bit. Scares me a little bit.

3)"Dollar cost averaging". I explained this earlier and I believe it may afford me the opportunity to make even more money.

4) Average market sentiment. You have to pay attention to things happening around you. Though most of the time I don't listen. :PBut, ifsomeone blew up the RNC, would you stay in the market?

That's it. Just wanted to let whoever follows this know what I'm going to be doing so you can research it if you like.

Currently up 15.03% for the year. :^

09-01-2004, 07:47 AM

Not to be negative. But if something gets blown up I will go 100% C fund.

At tspmoney.com there is a lot of flashing red lights right now. What is your view on the job report?

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Short Range
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Short Range
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Medium Range
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Long Range
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09-01-2004, 07:57 AM

Lot''s of green in the short range. ;)I really don't think too much about it to be honest. I try to keep this as simple as possible and still make money. I may not time it right every day,, but eventuallly I will profit AND keep my sanity. You don't want me to end up like Rolo, I mean ROLO do ya?

Just kidding dude!! :P

09-01-2004, 08:04 AM

Milk,

I am taking the F fund trend and see if I can get some coinage on that for the week.

Was going to go I fund (based on week U.S. econonic data) but that is a day late and a dollar short. Nomar made a great move going 100% I fund based on the weak data. That is investing 101. Bad news in the U.S. weakens the U.S. dollar and the international index rally. But put that in our memory banks and job on that next time.

What is your outlook on Intel guidance , the weekly jobless claims and the August job report? I believe those are the drivers for the market for the rest of the month.

MT

09-01-2004, 08:16 AM

You may want to read this:

Under normal circumstances, Warren Buffett is a man you don't want to trade against. But now may be a rare instance to do so...
As of March, Warren Buffett had $18 billion in foreign currencies. He's worried about the U.S. dollar crashing under the weight of the twin deficits, like everyone else on the planet.
When it comes to buying businesses, my money is with Buffett. But when it comes to trading currencies, his record isn't so great.
In Fortune magazine, he admitted as much: "I started way back in 1987 to publicly worry about our mounting trade deficits-and, as you know, we've not only survived but also thrived. So on the trade front, score at least one "wolf" for me. Nevertheless, I am crying wolf again."
When it comes to trading currencies, Dennis Gartman and John Percival are two guys I listen to closely. Between them, they've been writing their investment letters on this topic for over 40 years. This week in The Gartman Letter, Dennis (unintentionally) put Buffett in his place...

WHY "A PROBLEM IS NOT A PROBLEM UNTIL IT IS A PROBLEM"
Says Gartman: "We have watched too many great minds in the field of investment worry about problems that never come to fruition, and in the process have not only wasted valuable "mental" capital, they have lost real in-the-pocket capital, and it is sad. We think it is wise to plan for future events; we think it is unwise to trade in anticipation of them."
Gartman sums it up by saying: "a problem is not a problem until it is a problem."
Buffett buys businesses that are working right now at cheap prices. He doesn't trade in anticipation of the future. But that seems to be what he's doing in the currency markets now.
Again, in the case of buying businesses cheap, I'll take Buffett. But in the case of speculating on currencies, I'll take Gartman, or John Percival...
THE DOLLAR BEAR MARKET IS OVER
The bear market in the dollar is over, John Percival declared in the latest issue of his letter "Currency Bulletin," out today.
Unlike Buffett, Percival is now bullish on the U.S. dollar, expecting it to rise versus the euro, and just about everything else.
Has he lost his mind?
Isn't he aware of our twin deficits... our sky-high budget deficit and trade deficit? And how it has to come home to roost some day, causing the dollar to crash in the process? Isn't he aware that the Buffett is expecting the dollar to fall?
Percival has been writing "Currency Bulletin" since 1982, successfully going against popular opinion time and again. So no, he hasn't lost his mind. He's simply calling it as he sees it. With his track record in currencies, as a general rule you don't want to be trading against this guy.
For the last two years, the dollar has been in a bear market, he explains. "All along, the underlying rationale for this bearishness has appeared to lie in America's current account deficit." Percival, since 1982, has never worried about a deficit in his trading. And he's been a winner.
Simply put (nice that Percival can talk about currencies simply), he says "the U.S. economy is okay for now; if we have a problem with that, we can take our money off the table."
Smart people like Warren Buffett, have worried aloud about a U.S. dollar crash, triggered by massive deficits in the U.S. But most of these smart people are not currency people.
Gartman and Percival are currency guys. And neither of them shares Buffett's view about the dollar now.
There are a lot of smart guys out there, who believe down in their toes that the dollar must crash, and it must happen sooner rather than later.
In this case, I'd rather be with Gartman and Percival. A dollar crash may happen some day. But not today.

09-01-2004, 09:34 AM

Milk,

I canx my transaction and will stay 100% G fund through the week. It looks like the hedge funds have sold bonds are in oil again. At least that is my take on what is going on.

The auto report, Intel and job report to me is not worth the risk reward to hop in the soup right now.

MT

09-02-2004, 10:37 AM

Okay, I've finally reached the point where I'm a little worried about the short term. Moving 100% G fund effective tomorrow morning.

Several reasons, all of which none have anything to do with my actual "system" but it does involve part 4 of my investment strategies, "surrounding circumstances".

Jobs report, impending hurricane, Intel, and three of Yukos's production facilities being frozen. Little too much for me. Hopefully we'll stay up today for a little more profit.

As I stated earlier, if I was using 30-day moving averages instead of 63-day moving averages, I'd have a "sell" signal right now. Guess we'll see if I stay with 63 or move to 30. :^

09-02-2004, 10:55 AM

I think I should of went F. Oh well..............

Timer

09-02-2004, 02:31 PM

mlk_man wrote:
As I stated earlier, if I was using 30-day moving averages instead of 63-day moving averages, I'd have a "sell" signal right now. Guess we'll see if I stay with 63 or move to 30. :^

M_M always glad to hear what you have to say. Where do you track 63 day MA's? I look at tspmoney.com daily but they don't have MA's that far out.

Also, I've been meaning to ask this for a while, have you ever laid out your strategy in one statement? If you've done that on this board, I've missed it.

Thx!

Timer

09-02-2004, 02:38 PM

mlk_man wrote:
He's worried about the U.S. dollar crashing under the weight of the twin deficits, like everyone else on the planet.
M_M or should I say m_m ;)....

Where can one see charts on how the USD is doing. Especially against other currencies. Also, if the USD does go down, that augers well for the I fund no?

Also, doesn't gold usually get a bounce up when the USD drops? Thinking of buying some Gold :iif Warren is right.... but he's usually not right on trade. What's a mother to do! :(

Timer

09-02-2004, 02:40 PM

Timer wrote:
Also, I've been meaning to ask this for a while, have you ever laid out your strategy in one statement? If you've done that on this board, I've missed it.

Thx!

Duh! It's in your 6:38 post. :dah:

tsptalk

09-02-2004, 03:53 PM

Timer wrote:
Where can one see charts on how the USD is doing. Especially against other currencies. Also, if the USD does go down, that augers well for the I fund no?

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forex&nopu=xte6CKhUbf9%2Br8NpYcZNVdu28FI fJPuoy6XqHjWyEpqTkxNLCn2V4Q%3D%3D (http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forex&nopu=xte6CKhUbf9%2Br8NpYcZNVdu28FI fJPuoy6XqHjWyEpqTkxNLCn2V4Q%3D%3D)

09-03-2004, 07:20 AM

Timer wrote:
M_M or should I say m_m ;)....

Where can one see charts on how the USD is doing. Especially against other currencies. Also, if the USD does go down, that augers well for the I fund no?

Also, doesn't gold usually get a bounce up when the USD drops? Thinking of buying some Gold :iif Warren is right.... but he's usually not right on trade. What's a mother to do! :(

Yes you're right about Warren, his track record in currency hasn't always been great. A lot of people have been saying buy gold for some time now. And yes, a drop in the dollar is "usually" good for the I fund, but not always......jpemeralds mentioned that he thought the I fund typically "follows" what the C and S do within a few days, so went back to the first of the year and of the 4 times I've had "buy" signals for the I, 3 of them have followed "buy" signals for the S. Will be interesting to see if the I has a big up day within a few days since the C and S had a big day yesterday..

As far as my 63-day moving average, I just keep track of it myself.

Did you understand my "system". A few different strategies all mixed into one. Seems to be working though. I sold my S shares at the end of yesterday for a 2.42%gain , usually Iget 4-5%, and am now up 16.81% for the year. :!100% G for today. Got out a little early according to my "sell at 20 cents above the 60-moving average in a downtrending market" strategy, but not if I was using 30-day moving averages. I'll see how the next couple of days look and I may switch to 30-day. Still "tweaking" my "system". I just tought of checking 30-day moving averages because of our current volatility and it's too much of a pain to back test it, so we'll see. Volatility is good for my system. :^

Also, some people think the bear market in the dollar is over, be careful. I shy away from the I fund all to gather usually. Although I which I hadn't earlier this year. On May 7th I had a buy signal for the I fund and could of bought it for $12.46 and then got the sell signal on June 7th and could of sold it for $13.46. Could of had an 8% profit in a month!! Grrrrrrr, LOL.

Thanks for the website link Tom, didn't know of that one. :u

Good luck!!

And yes,please call me M_M, born and raised in Texas and you know what they say about Texas....guess I should change mlk_man to Mlk_Man!! Or maybe that's why I don't live there anymore, hmmmm..........:P

09-03-2004, 10:34 AM

Be careful with that F fund!!!!!!!!!! Here's a quote from cnnmoney:

Treasurys tumbled and the dollar rose after August employment data released Friday morning showed job creation just below analysts' forecasts and lower unemployment, increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve will further raise interest rates.

Higher rates pressure bonds because they erode the fixed-value return on Treasurys, while a rate hike would support the dollar by making U.S. equities attractive to overseas investors.

09-03-2004, 10:35 AM

Timer wrote:
What's a mother to do! :(
Don't have any myself, but my advice is give them to their father and go on vacation!!:u

09-03-2004, 01:18 PM

Looks like I'll be using 3-day moving averages for my signal now instead of 63-day. Hit right on. Love that!! I will nowsell at 2.5% above the 30-day moving average and buy at 1.5% below. (+\- .05)

09-04-2004, 12:07 PM

3 day moving average! Wow. That is pretty hands on. I use the 200 day moving average.

We are at a big gain or big loss level here. As you can see it does not hang around the 200 day very long. I am hoping we test the June highs.

Should be a very interesting short week next week. Good luck TSPers.

Good story about the F fund. That baby feel hard for a fund that moves like a rock.

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=^DJI&t=6m&q=l&l=on&z=m&p=m200&a=

09-04-2004, 02:58 PM

mlk_man wrote:
Looks like I'll be using 3-day moving averages for my signal now instead of 63-day. Hit right on. Love that!! I will nowsell at 2.5% above the 30-day moving average and buy at 1.5% below. (+- .05)Oops, I meant 30-day :^

09-07-2004, 03:06 PM

So I should be selling S and C and into G right now? Is that right, cause I am still in C and S right now?

Joel

09-08-2004, 07:35 AM

Sorry Joel, I was out yesterday. Yes, I am currentlly 100% G fund. If you're still in, I wouldn't sweat it. Probably still go up a bit. I forgot to dollar cost average when I sold this time...................

I'm looking for at least one more big drop in prices before the year's out so I get another good gainer and pass my goal of >20% gains for the year. :^

09-08-2004, 09:13 AM

So, are we going on the 30 day average and not the 63? Then when should I get out according to the "system".

Joel

09-08-2004, 09:20 AM

Joel,

In my opinion taking Milk's advice of buying on the next big down day will be a big mistake. The next big down day I will be bailing.

Anyone else have thoughts on this issue???

I believe there will be a rally this afternoon. Right now everyone is afraid of pulling the trigger in case Mr Greenspan tries to harpoon Bush II like he did Bush I.

Good luck!

09-08-2004, 09:26 AM

HEY MT, you're getting old dude. Yada, yada, yada. Proof is in the pudding! From what I've seen of your comments, you've been hiding in G fund almost all year. Make any money?

09-08-2004, 09:33 AM

Milk,

Did not make much, but on the other hand I did not lose anything. If we could short our TSP funds I would of been up a ton. Going long this market is not wise. Going ahead and buy into the next down day. I said Friday was going to be a bad day starting 27 Augand there would be a RNC rally this week. You went into G fund on a market sell off day (friday) and missed the nice up day yesterday. Who is ahead of who????

I may be yada yada to you but hopefully to others I am coming in loud and clear. Get the heck out of the way on the next big down day and do not buy into it.

Anyone agree with me (anyone on my side here :shock:)??? Hiding out in G fund is not bad when the market is going down...not up.

NEW YORK - Wall Street professionals know to keep their expectations in check in September, historically the worst month of the year for stocks. As summertime draws to a close, money managers are getting back to business, cleaning house, and often sending the market[/b] lower in the process.

September has opened strong eight of the last nine years, but it's ended with a knockout punch for stocks for the lastsix years, because institutional traders are making end-of-the-quarter portfolio changes.

MT

09-08-2004, 09:35 AM

jgpalmerdds wrote:
So, are we going on the 30 day average and not the 63? Then when should I get out according to the "system".

Joel

Yes Joel, I switched to the 30-day average. It typically has been pretty close to the 63-day average all year since we've sort of been going sideways. But now there is a pretty large disparity. I think it will enable us to move a bit quicker on buy and sell indicators. And have more "buy" opportunites. We'll see. I'm still tracking both.

Currently the 30-day moving average is at $12.32 and the 63-day is $12.59 for the S fund.

As I said earlier, I'm out now, but things may still go up a little bit. And no MT, I don't buy on "down days". I buy when the market drops far enough. Pay attention to fewer "real" things and not as many "fantasy" things. How's the meds going? They helping? :u

09-08-2004, 09:46 AM

mlk_man wrote:

Sorry Joel, I was out yesterday. Yes, I am currentlly 100% G fund. If you're still in, I wouldn't sweat it. Probably still go up a bit. I forgot to dollar cost average when I sold this time...................

I'm looking for at least one more big drop in prices before the year's out so I get another good gainer and pass my goal of >20% gains for the year. :^

Milk,

Great advice selling on the huge down day last Friday and sitting in G fund now. In my opinion you are going to miss a 5-15% rally from now to the end of the month. I am going to sell at the top and get back in "on the one more big drop in prices".

You can get personal if you want in your comments. But in my opinion you are the one that needs to be on meds. Risk/reward. You will be missing the best rally of the year. You should restate your investment plan by saying "I sell into the big drop in prices."

So far since I have been on this board I am two for two. Down day last Friday and a rally this week. I will continue to make great calls to if anyone wants to listen they can make some dough too.

Good luck!

MT

09-08-2004, 09:46 AM

MarketTimer wrote:
Milk,

Did not make much, but on the other hand I did not lose anything. If we could short our TSP funds I would of been up a ton. Going long this market is not wise. Going ahead and buy into the next down day. I said Friday was going to be a bad day starting 27 Augand there would be a RNC rally this week. You went into G fund on a market sell off day (friday) and missed the nice up day yesterday. Who is ahead of who????

I may be yada yada to you but hopefully to others I am coming in loud and clear. Get the heck out of the way on the next big down day and do not buy into it.

Anyone agree with me (anyone on my side here :shock:)??? Hiding out in G fund is not bad when the market is going down...not up.

NEW YORK - Wall Street professionals know to keep their expectations in check in September, historically the worst month of the year for stocks. As summertime draws to a close, money managers are getting back to business, cleaning house, and often sending the market[/b] lower in the process.

September has opened strong eight of the last nine years, but it's ended with a knockout punch for stocks for the lastsix years, because institutional traders are making end-of-the-quarter portfolio changes.

MT

Get your head out my brother....I've seen you bash me, Tom, Moe, Larry and Curly over our decisions, but you know what. I happen to like the decisions I've made and have documented them. You seem to keep changing your story. You said the market was gonna drop all week long last week. When it "finallly" does, you say "told ya so".

LOL, are you a meteorologist? It's gonna rain, sometime............

I was in S fund all last week until Friday when I was 100% G fund and didn't take the hit others did. But, you say I'm wrong. Okay, hope I'm wrong a whole lot more.

BTW, by being in last week, and supposedly you weren't, I gained 1.4% percent.

I'll leave you with one comment then you go on "ignore" cause I think all you do is put fear into people and your not gonna make money by sitting in G all the time. And let me spell this out for ya:

U

P

16.81%

FOR

THE

YEAR!!!!!!!!!!

And not done yet..............

Bye MT, take a vacation..........

09-08-2004, 09:50 AM

09-08-2004, 09:52 AM

Milk,

Last week, S&P 500 rebalance on Tuesday (index funds had to buy stock) and a rumour rally on Thursday of the leaked "gang buster job report" and we caught Osama at 2pm. Oh yeah, Intel moved their earnings guidance from Thursday at 1300 until after the close. Hmmm???

Ignore me if you want. That is your lose. With the calls you make I think your up 16.81% YTDis a dream not a reality. Going to G fund last Friday was a prime example.

MT

P.S. Just let me know when you are going out of G so I can go to G.

09-08-2004, 09:54 AM

mlk_man wrote:

I was in S fund all last week until Friday when I was 100% G fund and didn't take the hit others did. But, you say I'm wrong. Okay, hope I'm wrong a whole lot more.

MarketTimer wrote:

Milk,

Great advice selling on the huge down day last Friday and sitting in G fund now. In my opinion you are going to miss a 5-15% rally from now to the end of the month. I am going to sell at the top and get back in "on the one more big drop in prices".

You can get personal if you want in your comments. But in my opinion you are the one that needs to be on meds. Risk/reward. You will be missing the best rally of the year. You should restate your investment plan by saying "I sell into the big drop in prices."

So far since I have been on this board I am two for two. Down day last Friday and a rally this week. I will continue to make great calls to if anyone wants to listen they can make some dough too.

Good luck!

MT

GET WITH THE PROGRAM DUDE. i SOLD MY SHARES ON THURSDAY!!!!!!!!!! AT $12.71 PER SHARE. NOT FRIDAY AT $12.65 PER SHARE!!! GOOD GOD MAN IF THIS IS SO BAD, THEN LEAD US DEAR MOSESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

09-08-2004, 09:55 AM

Milk,

Read what you write. I believe that is the problem.

I was in S fund all last week until Friday when I was 100% G fund and didn't take the hit others did. But, you say I'm wrong. Okay, hope I'm wrong a whole lot more.

That means you switched to G fund on Friday.

09-08-2004, 10:03 AM

[quote]:):):) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff"

09-08-2004, 10:07 AM

MarketTimer wrote:

Milk,

Great advice selling on the huge down day last Friday and sitting in G fund now. In my opinion you are going to miss a 5-15% rally from now to the end of the month. I am going to sell at the top and get back in "on the one more big drop in prices".

You can get personal if you want in your comments. But in my opinion you are the one that needs to be on meds. Risk/reward. You will be missing the best rally of the year. You should restate your investment plan by saying "I sell into the big drop in prices."

So far since I have been on this board I am two for two. Down day last Friday and a rally this week. I will continue to make great calls to if anyone wants to listen they can make some dough too.

Good luck!

MT

And I think that anyone else who actually takes the time to read your comments knows that you are full of horse hockey. Just my humble opinion...........:^

You seem to tailor your comments and others to meet your own needs. I forgive you though, some people just aren't happy unless they are talking.

BTW, you're saying "rally" now? I thought last week you were very bearish for the remainder of the year?

Hey Tom, can someone "bar" someone else from making comments in their "member allocation talk" forum? LOL Yahoo has an "ignore" button...............

Quotes from MT:

"Hate to be a flip flopper but I am going 100% at the Monday closing price. There is just a cloud starting Tuesday and I want to be in my hole to wait and see if I can peek my head up and start to nibble again. I really want to bank my gains from 13 Aug. With the news the Fed is going to raise rates again no matter what oil or inflation does in September is not factor in yet to the market."

Said this on a Sunday and S fund went up from $12.49 on Monday to $12.71 on Thursday when I went 100% G fund. Does his statement say anything about waiting till Friday to get out? Hmmmmm

Another quote for Tues Aug 31th:

"I feel very good about going 100% G Fund at this point. This feels like the last seven times the market turned up...we went lower."

This sound like a man who is currently "bullish"?

And as far as calling this a rally this week, ummm, haven't we been rallying for about 2-3 weeks now?

09-08-2004, 10:10 AM

MarketTimer wrote:
Milk,

Last week, S&P 500 rebalance on Tuesday (index funds had to buy stock) and a rumour rally on Thursday of the leaked "gang buster job report" and we caught Osama at 2pm. Oh yeah, Intel moved their earnings guidance from Thursday at 1300 until after the close. Hmmm???

Ignore me if you want. That is your lose. With the calls you make I think your up 16.81% YTDis a dream not a reality. Going to G fund last Friday was a prime example.

MT

P.S. Just let me know when you are going out of G so I can go to G.

I could of got back in on Tuesday at Friday's prices if I had wanted to. But I'm not a daily timer such as yourself oh great ZEN master!!

09-08-2004, 10:14 AM

Milk,

Heart rate getting pumping??? Hey buddy I do not want to **** you off.

I wish you luck in the G fund.

I am trying to listen to Greenspan and want to pop my eardrums out. I think he is saying good things.

I will not question your methods. Last week was a crazy week. I think I called it X Files stuff.

I hope you have a great week and do not ignore me.

Just be careful getting back in the indexes at this time of the year. It may be an election year but mutual funds want to take losses to offset their gains and get the crappy stocks off their list of holdings. Happens every year.

Good luck!
MT

09-08-2004, 10:14 AM

MarketTimer wrote:
Milk,

Read what you write. I believe that is the problem.

I was in S fund all last week until Friday when I was 100% G fund and didn't take the hit others did. But, you say I'm wrong. Okay, hope I'm wrong a whole lot more.

That means you switched to G fund on Friday.

Perhaps you should read others comments. Or better yet, shut up and listennn. This from my account forum. Once again, making comments so suit your own needs. Got a new nic for ya, "flip-flopper"

Kissssss, luv ya man. Now go away...............

Posted: Thu Sep 2nd, 2004 11:23 am

Edit (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/edit_post.php?id=4516)

Quote (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/reply.php?post_id=4516&quote=1)

Reply (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/reply.php?topic_id=277)

Going 100% G fund this morning to be effective Friday morning.

09-08-2004, 10:21 AM

MarketTimer wrote:
Milk,

Heart rate getting pumping??? Hey buddy I do not want to **** you off.

I wish you luck in the G fund.

I am trying to listen to Greenspan and want to pop my eardrums out. I think he is saying good things.

I will not question your methods. Last week was a crazy week. I think I called it X Files stuff.

I hope you have a great week and do not ignore me.

Just be careful getting back in the indexes at this time of the year. It may be an election year but mutual funds want to take losses to offset their gains and get the crappy stocks off their list of holdings. Happens every year.

Good luck!
MT
Once again, mr. flip-flopper!! So you advising people to jump in or stay out? You keep switching!!!!!!!
And no, my heart-rate is not pumping, at least not because of you. I just hate seeing someone like you come in here and try skeer the crap out of people then say" oh I expect a big rally for the rest of the year". Then you say" be careful getting back in" Are you bi-polar? Would make a lot of sense............
I''m out, enuff time has been wasted on you. You owe me.................
Oh by the way, my returns are documented, yours? Oh that's right, you've been G all year till now because the market looks ripe for a rally......... LOL

09-08-2004, 10:25 AM

I just realized something, hey market_timer, you don't work for tsp.gov do ya?

09-08-2004, 10:35 AM

Thursday and Friday last week I was in the hospital so it was hard to keep you appraised of my outlook, I aplogize. All I know is I said was last Friday was going to be a down day and a RNC bouncerally this week that I am not sure how far will go. I believe there will be a rally this afternoon after Greenspan is finished and then a sell off before the end of this month. I believe we see a 5-15% bounce from the August lows at best.

I believe all I heard was "why be afraid of the job report?", "the job report will not move the market " and that is good for international markets". When I got out on 30 Aug, Intel was scheduled to provide earningsguidanceat 1300 on 2 Sep (not after the market close on 2 Sep). If I would of known that I would of hung around until 1 Sep like I stated prior to my switch based on the news that was public. Last week we caught Osama and we were getting a gang buster job report Friday morning. It is hard to make investment decisions on that kind of data.

Not sure how much I can stick my neck out for ya but there is some real calls above. Not I am up 16.8 YTD and I am up nearly 20% for the year.

My advice is to ride this little rally but be prepared to blast out on short notice.

Good luck!

MT

This is a bullish short term chart now. 30 Aug we could of turned down or turned up. I believe if it was not for the S&P 500 rebalance and rumour rally on Thursday it would of been a tough weak. Risk/reward if you read candlesticks. We have a little rally here. HEY I AM BULLISH FOR A CHANGE.

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=^DJI&t=3m&q=c&l=on&z=m&a=v&p=s

09-08-2004, 10:44 AM

Ummmm, why ride this "little rally" and not the previous 3 that we have already had this year and that I did "ride"?

You can find my spreadsheet in my account. Thank you very much. And anyone who actually takes the time to listen to what others are saying, knows I"m pretty good at stating my buys and sells.

09-08-2004, 10:46 AM

Milk,

No. I left fed service in 1998. Right now I am actuary for an insurance company but looking for ajob in another area.

I do like the upgrades the tsp.gov have implemented with the new service contract.

Are you AD? You are right to the point kind of person.

MT

mlk_man wrote:

I just realized something, hey market_timer, you don't work for tsp.gov do ya?

09-08-2004, 10:52 AM

This little rally Pres Bush is in front of the polls. He was trailing the other three rallies. Senator Kerry is fading from site and that will move the markets. Changing the div/cap taxes from 15% to 39.6% will lead to another 1987 crash (remember when we could not write off our credit card, car loan interest off our taxes?).

We also are above the 200 DMA that will intice the momentum investors to hop above for the ride. Also the shorts are on the side lines now and may be forced to go long to not take advantage of forward market gains. This rally has a late May 2004 feel to it. We also got a bullish candlestick signal working in our favor.

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=^DJI&t=6m&q=l&l=on&z=m&p=m200&a=

09-08-2004, 10:55 AM

Lots of typos :shock:on my last post. 0600 here and got to get to work or hit massive traffic.

Have a great day all!

MT

09-08-2004, 11:11 AM

Oops, well that didn't post like I wanted..............

Timer

09-08-2004, 03:03 PM

mlk_man wrote:

Are you bi-polar?
M_M You say that like it's a bad thing.

You two are too entertaining to miss!

Rod

09-09-2004, 02:27 AM

Hey MM, when do you plan to be invested?

Are you waiting on some lows?

09-09-2004, 06:20 AM

Hey Rod,

I went 50/50 I and S last Friday. I was hoping the Beige Book was going to back up what Mr Greenspan testified about that morning. Who to believe? Greenspan or the report that is promulgated from his office? Mr Greenspan says traction the Beige Book says slippage.

This morning I purchase 10K QQQs, 10K DIAMONDS and 10K SPIDERS EFTS. I believe the situation in Indonesia is a buying opportunity. I still believe we have a little rally prior to the end of the month sell off by mutual funds to clean up their annual reports. By the volumes the big guys have done nothing so far.

Have a great day!

MT

Rod

09-09-2004, 06:33 AM

Thanx MT. I may wait until next week to get invested. Or better yet, wait until Oct 1.

09-09-2004, 06:52 AM

1 Oct will be the day the mutual funds buy back the stocks they dump this month. Happens every year.

Week after triple witching the DOW is down 90% of the time this month, hint, hint!

Have a great day!

MT

09-09-2004, 06:54 AM

Rod wrote:
Hey MM, when do you plan to be invested?

Are you waiting on some lows?

Yepper, I'm 100% G right now. Next week may be good to get back in. Once again, I'll post this little tidbit for MT's sake. But don't listen to me, listen to him. He's the man.......... He's made a lot of money since Friday being invested!!!!!!!!! :P

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040825/markets_stocks_conventions_1.html

Note the last statement in the article........W E E K N E S S MT!!! LOL

09-09-2004, 06:56 AM

Timer wrote:
mlk_man wrote:

Are you bi-polar?
M_M You say that like it's a bad thing.

You two are too entertaining to miss!
Speaking of which, where's Rolo? :D

09-09-2004, 07:01 AM

The week after triple witching is the last week of the month...this is the week that the mutual funds normally clean the dogs out their portfolios.

Milk, good call on going to G last Thursday. I should of went G Fund this Tuesday but got greedy. Oh well, down 3% is a hit but I will not stay in and take a larger hit and wait.

They RNC bounce needs viagria because it has gone limp on us :P. If you look back through history most of the election year up years come two months prior to the election. This may be a sign of a Kerry whitehouse. If that is the case 100% G fund for a long long time.

OK Milk, stop rubbing it in. Blame Tom :^.

MT

09-09-2004, 07:07 AM

MarketTimer wrote:

OK Milk, stop rubbing it in. Blame Tom :^.

MT

That damn Tom.................. :x

What ever happened to the Fro? :dude:

09-09-2004, 07:13 AM

Yeah that darn Tom and his election year stats for the month of September being a good month to be long vice the historical average of this as the worse month of all for the U.S. markets. Darn him!

:D

Timer

09-09-2004, 12:45 PM

mlk_man wrote:
Timer wrote:
mlk_man wrote:

Are you bi-polar?
M_M You say that like it's a bad thing.

You two are too entertaining to miss!
Speaking of which, where's Rolo? :D
I miss Rolo.

Roooooloooooo wheeeere aaaaaare youuuuuu?

09-09-2004, 01:03 PM

Here Rolo, come boy!!!!!!!!!! Got a stock pick for ya fella........... :l

09-09-2004, 01:04 PM

Wow, 323 posts!!! It's all MT's fault......................:shock:

09-09-2004, 06:28 PM

I sold my 50% S fund as of end of today, for a 2.38% gain. I dollar cost averaged some $ at a higher share price, prior to understanding that money goes into the G fund. Thanks MLK. I'm still holding onto my C fund (I'm still 50% C) until it hits .3 (+-.05) above 30 day average, right?

I'll track the averages, just please give me notice for the next "buy". Thanks

Joel

09-09-2004, 06:36 PM

By the way, the .3 above 30 day average for the C fund is: 11.89 and the fund is at 11.85 right now. Is this what you mean by the within +- .05 range for buying/selling? In other words, should I of sold and not split hairs on the price. Right now, at 11.85, it puts me up 2.24% since the 50% C buy. Thanks

Joel

tsptalk

09-09-2004, 11:13 PM

MarketTimer wrote:
Yeah that darn Tom and his election year stats for the month of September being a good month to be long vice the historical average of this as the worse month of all for the U.S. markets. Darn him!

:D

OK, I'll bite. I assume that is sarcasm as Sepember is up 1.3% so far.

Darn Tom

09-10-2004, 08:08 AM

jgpalmerdds wrote:
By the way, the .3 above 30 day average for the C fund is: 11.89 and the fund is at 11.85 right now. Is this what you mean by the within +- .05 range for buying/selling? In other words, should I of sold and not split hairs on the price. Right now, at 11.85, it puts me up 2.24% since the 50% C buy. Thanks

Joel

Yepper Joel, you're right on. +/- .05. I typically get around a 4% return on each sell, but the market dropped a lot farther than I anticipated this time around. But hey, I'm happy with a 2.24% return in a little over a month's time.

I'm currentlly 100% G fund and I suggest the same for everyone else. The market may go up a bit more, but it may drop big time too. If it goes up, either won't go up much before we see a pullback, or it'll continue to uptrend and we can jump back in if that happens. Next week will tell the story. Our fast and intermediate moving averages continue to rise, so we'll see if that continues or not. I've only been keeping moving averages since June 18th, so it's tough to call just yet.

Typically, the market moves about 6-7% from it's low to it's high during one of these "dips". I try to get at least 4-5% of that and still avoid a lot of risk. Right now the S fund is up 7.5% from it's low of $11.87. One of the reasons i'm looking for another pull back unless we are indeed entering a bull market finally.

Like I said before, give me 4-5% four or five times a year and I'm happy. Especially in a bear market! My goal is still to average 20% every year. Right on track!

Currently my gains on 5 transactions this year are: 4.27%, 4.16%, 4.35%, 2.27%, and 2.42%. I also had one "loss" of .77% only because I "sold" my 50% C on July 23rd to go 100% S. I think some people overlook this when they change their allocations. You have to take into account that when you switch between funds, you're actually "selling" one fund to "purchase" another. Just thought I'd let everyone know because I'm trying to be as accurate as possible on my return %'s. Not trying to BS anyone. Say what MT? Just kidding...........:P

Your welcome for the help Joel. Let's hope it continues. :^

Yea as I walk through the valley of stocks, I shall fear no market......... :!:!

09-10-2004, 10:29 AM

Just sold rest of C fund effective the end of today. Now 100% G. I'll keep tracking the averages and lets keep the communication up! Thanks

Joel

09-11-2004, 10:06 AM

I have an update. For some reason, the tsp.gov website did not take my first transaction of selling the S fund a few days ago. I was fortunate to benefit from this mistake as the stock price rose higher the next couple of days. I'm now 100% G effective the end of yesterday (I got my confirm e-mail)

My first MLK guided transaction was: S fund +2.94%, C fund +2.76%. This was buying on July 22nd and selling September 10th. Thanks MLK! I noticed the averages are way over the 30 day- avearage. What happens if they continue to go up, up, up. How do we handle this? We certainly don't want to buy "high" and have it drop, but we don't want to miss a 10-20% uptrend either. What is your take on that and what have you done in the past.

By the way, my private IRA money, going short with "you know who", is down 14% (with margin) since April 30th. I have lost over 20% of my principle with them since March, ouch! I don't want to sell for a loss, so right now it is on "paper".

Joel

09-11-2004, 10:39 AM

mlk_man wrote:
jgpalmerdds wrote:
By the way, the .3 above 30 day average for the C fund is: 11.89 and the fund is at 11.85 right now. Is this what you mean by the within +- .05 range for buying/selling? In other words, should I of sold and not split hairs on the price. Right now, at 11.85, it puts me up 2.24% since the 50% C buy. Thanks

Joel

Yepper Joel, you're right on. +/- .05. I typically get around a 4% return on each sell, but the market dropped a lot farther than I anticipated this time around. But hey, I'm happy with a 2.24% return in a little over a month's time.

I'm currentlly 100% G fund and I suggest the same for everyone else. The market may go up a bit more, but it may drop big time too. If it goes up, either won't go up much before we see a pullback, or it'll continue to uptrend and we can jump back in if that happens. Next week will tell the story. Our fast and intermediate moving averages continue to rise, so we'll see if that continues or not. I've only been keeping moving averages since June 18th, so it's tough to call just yet.

Typically, the market moves about 6-7% from it's low to it's high during one of these "dips". I try to get at least 4-5% of that and still avoid a lot of risk. Right now the S fund is up 7.5% from it's low of $11.87. One of the reasons i'm looking for another pull back unless we are indeed entering a bull market finally.

Like I said before, give me 4-5% four or five times a year and I'm happy. Especially in a bear market! My goal is still to average 20% every year. Right on track!

Currently my gains on 5 transactions this year are: 4.27%, 4.16%, 4.35%, 2.27%, and 2.42%. I also had one "loss" of .77% only because I "sold" my 50% C on July 23rd to go 100% S. I think some people overlook this when they change their allocations. You have to take into account that when you switch between funds, you're actually "selling" one fund to "purchase" another. Just thought I'd let everyone know because I'm trying to be as accurate as possible on my return %'s. Not trying to BS anyone. Say what MT? Just kidding...........:P

Your welcome for the help Joel. Let's hope it continues. :^

Yea as I walk through the valley of stocks, I shall fear no market......... :!:!

Milk,

You picked one of the best weeks in the indexes to be fully invested in the G fund.

Keep up the great work!

:^ My TSP fund was up $2151 this week...darn I could of been up $112 if I was in the G fund with you Milk. I hate when I miss out on those great gains :P.

Joel bad day to sell. 67% of the time the market is up the Monday prior to triple witching.

Have a great week.

I have made a allocation change effective Monday but I will let Milk figure it out.

MT

09-11-2004, 10:41 AM

Tom,

This hope the rally continues on Monday!

Hope your wife is well.

MT

tsptalk wrote:

MarketTimer wrote:
Yeah that darn Tom and his election year stats for the month of September being a good month to be long vice the historical average of this as the worse month of all for the U.S. markets. Darn him!

:D

OK, I'll bite. I assume that is sarcasm as Sepember is up 1.3% so far.

Darn Tom

09-11-2004, 11:08 AM

Joel,

What is the holdings of your IRA? Who did you short with? Right now short the airlines and that is iffy at best with oil on a yo yo.

Hey this is a learning experience. I know some folks that are down over 40% this year. One person I know has gone from $120K to $68K in seven months. She soldhere Intel and HP holdings inthe firstweek of August because she heard the August and September swoon adage. :s.

MT

jgpalmerdds wrote:

I have an update. For some reason, the tsp.gov website did not take my first transaction of selling the S fund a few days ago. I was fortunate to benefit from this mistake as the stock price rose higher the next couple of days. I'm now 100% G effective the end of yesterday (I got my confirm e-mail)

My first MLK guided transaction was: S fund +2.94%, C fund +2.76%. This was buying on July 22nd and selling September 10th. Thanks MLK! I noticed the averages are way over the 30 day- avearage. What happens if they continue to go up, up, up. How do we handle this? We certainly don't want to buy "high" and have it drop, but we don't want to miss a 10-20% uptrend either. What is your take on that and what have you done in the past.

By the way, my private IRA money, going short with "you know who", is down 14% (with margin) since April 30th. I have lost over 20% of my principle with them since March, ouch! I don't want to sell for a loss, so right now it is on "paper".

Joel

09-11-2004, 06:49 PM

Private IRA money is in mutual funds (inverse, right now) following the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, S and P. I don't invest in individual stocks.

By the way, lay off MLK, he and I would like something that takes 5 minutes/day to deal with, and 20% per year is not a bad goal, with him attaining it most of the time.

We are not day traders, day to day news and info market watchers (at least I'm not). Even the trend service I'm with takes five minutes/week (although I'm not impressed with it so far, for the first 5 months) You have posted over 170 timesin 2 1/2 weeks since youhave becomea member, which seems to me you are constantly looking at this stuff and trying to determineyour direction based on technicals, trends, news, info and past statistics. What percent return is enough? I know that if I hit 20%, even 15% a year I hit my retirement goals. Isn't that what it is all about? In the mean time, I live my life, and I'm not addicted to the market. You keep your face in aBarrons and Wall Street Journal, I'll spend time with my kids. Take care.

FundSurfer

09-11-2004, 09:50 PM

mlk_man wrote:

I'm currentlly 100% G fund and I suggest the same for everyone else. The market may go up a bit more, but it may drop big time too. If it goes up, either won't go up much before we see a pullback, or it'll continue to uptrend and we can jump back in if that happens. Next week will tell the story. Our fast and intermediate moving averages continue to rise, so we'll see if that continues or not. I've only been keeping moving averages since June 18th, so it's tough to call just yet.

I've been playing with spreadsheets and teaching myself how to track gains and losses with Tom's spreadsheet. I started adding a wrinkle that lets me back test systems. I started with yours since yours looked the easiest to codify. I started with the trend line triggers you use for buying and selling but somewhere I missed how you would decide to jump back in with an uptrending market. I ask this because backtesting your system showed several occasions where your system misses big moves in uptrending market. How do you think you would decide the market is uptrending and decide to get back in and then how would you decide to sell?

Your system definitely does well in a volitile market as you have noted previously but has problems with long moves. Take the recent downtrend you road for a long while before it turned around. If the trend had been reversed you would have watched the market sail way past your sell point. (Too bad we don't have a short fund...)

09-12-2004, 05:31 AM

jgpalmerdds wrote:
Private IRA money is in mutual funds (inverse, right now) following the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, S and P. I don't invest in individual stocks.

By the way, lay off MLK, he and I would like something that takes 5 minutes/day to deal with, and 20% per year is not a bad goal, with him attaining it most of the time.

We are not day traders, day to day news and info market watchers (at least I'm not). Even the trend service I'm with takes five minutes/week (although I'm not impressed with it so far, for the first 5 months) You have posted over 170 timesin 2 1/2 weeks since youhave becomea member, which seems to me you are constantly looking at this stuff and trying to determineyour direction based on technicals, trends, news, info and past statistics. What percent return is enough? I know that if I hit 20%, even 15% a year I hit my retirement goals. Isn't that what it is all about? In the mean time, I live my life, and I'm not addicted to the market. You keep your face in aBarrons and Wall Street Journal, I'll spend time with my kids. Take care.

Joel,

You need to be more diverisfied. Your TSP should be your index mix and maybe in your IRA own things that augment the index funds. Oh yeah, is this a ROTH or a IRA? I meant to ask that earlier. What is your time horizon?

I only sleep about three hours a day. I love the market and I love investing.

If it is in Barrons and Wall Street Journal it is all ready to late to act.

15-20% a year is to optimistic if you do not want to spend time researching and learning. Just like anything in life - you get out what you put in. I plan on retiring when I am 52 and I know if I take action now I will have more time for other things later.

This year my energy holdingsare up 32%, REITs up 22% and Austria EFT is up 29%. Which are my main longs besides Bank of America, Starbucks, FEDEX andHarley Davidson. I guess the reason I am on this board is there is not to many ideas out there right now. When things become better I will not be on here.

Take care! MT

09-12-2004, 05:34 AM

09-12-2004, 05:35 AM

09-13-2004, 07:35 AM

jgpalmerdds wrote:

By the way, lay off MLK, he and I would like something that takes 5 minutes/day to deal with, and 20% per year is not a bad goal, with him attaining it most of the time.

We are not day traders, day to day news and info market watchers (at least I'm not). Even the trend service I'm with takes five minutes/week (although I'm not impressed with it so far, for the first 5 months) You have posted over 170 timesin 2 1/2 weeks since youhave becomea member, which seems to me you are constantly looking at this stuff and trying to determineyour direction based on technicals, trends, news, info and past statistics. What percent return is enough? I know that if I hit 20%, even 15% a year I hit my retirement goals. Isn't that what it is all about? In the mean time, I live my life, and I'm not addicted to the market. You keep your face in aBarrons and Wall Street Journal, I'll spend time with my kids. Take care.

Okay, where do I start? First I'll start with Joel. Thank you for the kind words. Nice to be appreciated! At least someone "gets" what I'm trying to do. My goal is and always has been to make 20% a year with the "least" amount of effort and risk. I'm right on track for this year.

I don't believe this site was started to help people make daily trades. I think it was started because Tom realizes that with just a "few" trades a year, one can greatlyimprove their gains and minimize losses.

As I've said before, these "dips" we get usually rally 6-7% off their lows. I shoot to get 4-5% of that. I'm not looking to get in right at the bottom, or out right at the top. I'll leave that to MT, he seems to know "exactly" when to get in and out if you listen to him. Oh, except of course the week of Aug 30th to Sept. 3rd. What happened MT, crystal ball fog up? Oh that's right, you where "sick". ;)

Like I said last week, this week will be the big test for market. If we keep going up, then I'll say the market is now "bullish" and get back in.

09-13-2004, 07:52 AM

FundSurfer wrote:

I've been playing with spreadsheets and teaching myself how to track gains and losses with Tom's spreadsheet. I started adding a wrinkle that lets me back test systems. I started with yours since yours looked the easiest to codify. I started with the trend line triggers you use for buying and selling but somewhere I missed how you would decide to jump back in with an uptrending market. I ask this because backtesting your system showed several occasions where your system misses big moves in uptrending market. How do you think you would decide the market is uptrending and decide to get back in and then how would you decide to sell?

Your system definitely does well in a volitile market as you have noted previously but has problems with long moves. Take the recent downtrend you road for a long while before it turned around. If the trend had been reversed you would have watched the market sail way past your sell point. (Too bad we don't have a short fund...)

I've only been using my "system" since the beginning of the year so I don't have all the answers just yet. You have to watch your moving averages to decide if the market is uptrending, downtrending, or moving sideways. Currently fast and intermediate moving averages are trending up. Slow moving averages are still trending down and have been since about July 1st. Are we in a prolonged rally? Maybe, maybe not. If the slow moving averages begin to rise, I'd say yes. Just a little too early for me to jump back in just yet. This week should tell.

09-13-2004, 08:02 AM

jgpalmerdds wrote:
.

By the way, my private IRA money, going short with "you know who", is down 14% (with margin) since April 30th. I have lost over 20% of my principle with them since March, ouch! I don't want to sell for a loss, so right now it is on "paper".

Joel

Is this using the inverse funds? If you are going to use them I think I would track either 3-day or 5-day moving averages and go with which ever direction they are trending. The slow and intermediate averages are trending up, so I wouldn't be in the inverse funds right now.

Remember my "system" doesn't look to buy and sell right at highs or lows, but close enough to make nice gains. The market may continue to rise or drop for a week or two or maybe even three. It also might go up and down from day to day. That's why I think moving averages are your best bet with the inverse funds.

Good luck,

Mike

I have Excel charts for 5-day, 21-day, and 63-day moving averages. Just started tracking 3-day. If you want them, e-mail me at mlk_man@yahoo.com (mailto:mlk_man@yahoo.com) and I'll send them to ya.

09-13-2004, 08:06 AM

MarketTimer wrote:

Milk is all mine. I am going to learn him! MT

As I told the guy that hit on me at the park Sat., you've got nothing I want!!!! :P

09-13-2004, 08:15 AM

mlk_man wrote:
Looks like I'll be using 3-day moving averages for my signal now instead of 63-day.
May have switched "too soon". If I was still using 63-day moving averages, we would of had our "sell" signal after Fridays close for the S fund. Could of had a little more profit. I'll continue to track each, 30-day and 63-day, to determine which is best for what I'm doing.

As far as C and I funds, they still have a ways to go before our 63-day moving averages give us a "sell" signal. However, if using 30-day, we'd have a "sell" signal after Friday's close.

09-13-2004, 11:28 AM

My Money is in a Roth IRA, in inverse funds, and I'm to the point of being down 15%, and if I sell, it is a loss. Of course, if it goes down even more (bull market rise), it is more loss. I'm totally trusting in the reputation of this service, that they know what they are talking about. If the market dives and I get some principal back, I may get out. The last time I tried 10 day moving averages, going against their "signal)I was on the wrong side of the trend and lost 8% (with margin) in 7 days!! Kind of confusing right now. At least my principal was not that high to begin with, so dollar wise, the losses are not that large. Using 3-5 day moving averages would take me in and out of the funds every couple of days. I would have to pick a side, long or short if that were the case. I'm not sure if I'm willing to do that, because unlike MT, I enjoy my sleep! The question is: Once you hit 52 MT, will you stop, or is it an addiction? Later.

Joel

09-13-2004, 11:32 AM

Could someone explain to me what "triple witching" is? When does it happen and what significance does it have? From the info here, it sounds like it is good to be in the week before, and bad the week after, but what about during? Just wondering

Joel

tsptalk

09-13-2004, 12:13 PM

jgpalmerdds wrote:
Could someone explain to me what "triple witching" is? When does it happen and what significance does it have? From the info here, it sounds like it is good to be in the week before, and bad the week after, but what about during? Just wondering

The week before options expiration weeks is the week during. Options expire on the 3rd Friday of the month (actually Saturday but you can't trade on Saturday) and triple witching is just a month where several options and futures contract expire. They are in March, June, September and December. The market tends to be volatile leading up to that Friday.

09-14-2004, 06:59 AM

jgpalmerdds wrote:
My Money is in a Roth IRA, in inverse funds, and I'm to the point of being down 15%, and if I sell, it is a loss. Of course, if it goes down even more (bull market rise), it is more loss. I'm totally trusting in the reputation of this service, that they know what they are talking about. If the market dives and I get some principal back, I may get out. The last time I tried 10 day moving averages, going against their "signal)I was on the wrong side of the trend and lost 8% (with margin) in 7 days!! Kind of confusing right now. At least my principal was not that high to begin with, so dollar wise, the losses are not that large. Using 3-5 day moving averages would take me in and out of the funds every couple of days. I would have to pick a side, long or short if that were the case. I'm not sure if I'm willing to do that, because unlike MT, I enjoy my sleep! The question is: Once you hit 52 MT, will you stop, or is it an addiction? Later.

Joel

Hey Joel, I've been thinking about your situation with your IRA and think I may have come up with something. Does it take 3 days to clear your mutual funds,or are these ETF's I forget,when you switch or do they clear every day?

Be that as it may, I was looking at my 5-day moving averages, I have this if you want it, seems to me that if you follow this data and you get 3 consecutive up days, buy into the fund that tracks small caps, or S & P 500, whichever your more comfortable with. Then if get 3 consecutive down days, once again I'm talking about your 5-day moving average, switch over to the inverse fund. If you had been following this plan, there was only one time since June 18th, when I started tracking the averages, that you would of been "whipsawed" in the S & P and lost a little money but you would quickly have gotten it back. . Following small caps, S fund, you wouldn't of lost anything.This way you don't have to move everything around everyday.

3-day moving averages might work even better and help to avoid a couple more days of losses, but I just started tracking this average. The market tends to "trend" with an up or down day thrown into the mix once in awhile, so you shouldn't have to trade everyday.

Take a look and tell me what you think. I'm going to start an account on paper so I can track it and see how it works.

Hope I've helped. Good Luck!

Mike

09-14-2004, 03:04 PM

It takes three days to clear the mutual funds. I'm not quite following your plan for the IRAso I will e-mail you so you can send me your charts. Thanks,

Joel

09-15-2004, 07:20 AM

jgpalmerdds wrote:
It takes three days to clear the mutual funds. I'm not quite following your plan for the IRAso I will e-mail you so you can send me your charts. Thanks,

Joel

I think that should be ok. I was thinking about this again last night laying in bed, I do my best work in bed. :PIf you follow your 5-day moving average and it's trending up, then one day it goes down, go to cash or some "safe" fund. Wait a couple days and see which way the average goes. If stays down, go to the inverse funds. If it goes back up, go to the fund that tracks whichever index you feel comfortable with.

Looking back to June 18th, this should work. Like I said, I'm doing it on paper now, will let everyone know my progress in a month or two.

09-15-2004, 10:19 AM

MarketTimer wrote:
Joel,

In my opinion taking Milk's advice of buying on the next big down day will be a big mistake. The next big down day I will be bailing.

Anyone else have thoughts on this issue???

I believe there will be a rally this afternoon. Right now everyone is afraid of pulling the trigger in case Mr Greenspan tries to harpoon Bush II like he did Bush I.

Good luck!
MT always right? I think not. C fund dropped 5 cents, S fund 8 cents. Nice call....

09-15-2004, 10:37 AM

mlk_man wrote:
MarketTimer wrote:
Joel,

In my opinion taking Milk's advice of buying on the next big down day will be a big mistake. The next big down day I will be bailing.

Anyone else have thoughts on this issue???

I believe there will be a rally this afternoon. Right now everyone is afraid of pulling the trigger in case Mr Greenspan tries to harpoon Bush II like he did Bush I.

Good luck!
MT always right? I think not. C fund dropped 5 cents, S fund 8 cents. Nice call....
Milk,

This was for Sep. I would say buying into to this sell off will be a mistake (maybe it is good we can not go G to stock funds right now). So I bailed the day before the sell off. :^

The big Greenspan rally day. He said everything was great (at 1030) and the soft patch is over and that the economy had found traction (remember?) - the dow went from -30 to postive 28. Then that afternoon the Beige Book (that is issued by the fed- his office)came out of 2pm pretty much showed the soft patch was not over and was growing strength and the market sold off on the true noise. I actually said this may be a back scratch deal. It looks like it to me. Why would he say everything is going great during the testimony?

X files stuff I think I called it.

MT

09-15-2004, 11:01 AM

Okay all, I'm outta here. MT you may have my board.

I've developed a new system which when I back tested it, I believe affords the opportunity to profit over 75% gains every year in a Roth, traditiona IRA, or regular investment account. I have only back-tested it for 3 months right now. It's up 24.28% for that time period. When I get time I'll go back the whole year. If you would like to know more, just send me an e-mail. I'll send you my system plus my spreadsheet that I back-tested it on. My sole intention of sharing my systems is to help others.

Sorry MT, not you. You don't like to share anyway correct?

I have already given this to jgpalmerdds. Maybe he'll be nice enough to let you know what he thinks of the system.

If market-timer leaves, please let me know. I'll come back and let everyone know about it.

Good luck all, taking my football and going home............:u

Mike aka M_M

FundSurfer

09-16-2004, 11:13 AM

Milk....Just a note about your system. I have noticed that your gut is pretty good and a large part of your system. Looking at your posted trades versus what your system said you did well buy selling a little early a couple times and holding on a little longer a couple times. So congrats on the great timing.

I did notice that you are saying what you are doing a little wrong. You are using the buy signal from the average and then setting a target that day of .3 above that days index value. You are not really looking at the moving average from that point on for the sell signal but rather setting the sell target based on your purchase price. This strategy does much better than watching the average as you go along... (I back tested the other because I miss understood what you were doing and is actually did a little worse than the index did.)

Anyway, I've been looking at a signal for tracking the trending of the market. Been using a5 day averagetrend and it has done OK but not as well as your 'gut'. It actually looks like once you get past your sell point you bail quickly if either the market bumps up quickly or has a couple days of slight loss??

Are you looking at the graphs of the trend lines and looking for changes in direction?

I'm actually watching the market and hoping for uptrend to see when your "gut" says to get back in since I think we will see an uptrend that doesn't back track to your buy signal...maybe it will...but I hope not just to see what your 'gut' does.

My suggestion on MT is to just ignore him. If he does post his moves prior to 11 am and shows a track record then we can listen to him and see if there is any method to his madness... Right now he has less than 1 month of moves and by my calcs is doing worse than 100% C but a little better than 100% G. He also doesn't post his moves but rather e-mails Tom... wink wink

09-16-2004, 11:28 AM

FundSurfer wrote:
Milk....Just a note about your system. I have noticed that your gut is pretty good and a large part of your system. Looking at your posted trades versus what your system said you did well buy selling a little early a couple times and holding on a little longer a couple times. So congrats on the great timing.

I did notice that you are saying what you are doing a little wrong. You are using the buy signal from the average and then setting a target that day of .3 above that days index value. You are not really looking at the moving average from that point on for the sell signal but rather setting the sell target based on your purchase price. This strategy does much better than watching the average as you go along... (I back tested the other because I miss understood what you were doing and is actually did a little worse than the index did.)

Anyway, I've been looking at a signal for tracking the trending of the market. Been using a5 day averagetrend and it has done OK but not as well as your 'gut'. It actually looks like once you get past your sell point you bail quickly if either the market bumps up quickly or has a couple days of slight loss??

Are you looking at the graphs of the trend lines and looking for changes in direction?

I'm actually watching the market and hoping for uptrend to see when your "gut" says to get back in since I think we will see an uptrend that doesn't back track to your buy signal...maybe it will...but I hope not just to see what your 'gut' does.

My suggestion on MT is to just ignore him. If he does post his moves prior to 11 am and shows a track record then we can listen to him and see if there is any method to his madness... Right now he has less than 1 month of moves and by my calcs is doing worse than 100% C but a little better than 100% G. He also doesn't post his moves but rather e-mails Tom... wink wink

Sufer,

MT was 50% I fund when it went from 13.15 to 13.24 and 100% I fund when it went 13.24 to 13.43. Then bailed the day prior to a massive drop. If that is madness...sign me up. Not sure how calcs MT moves but your calc needs new batteries.

I wishMT would return to the board...because it is very dead now.

If you followed mike then you would of went 10.54 to 10.55 per share in the G fund. With him all I see is up 16.52% and up 18.55% for the year. Seems to me his calc needs fresh batteries also.

It is said that poor investors overstate their gains.

09-16-2004, 12:00 PM

mlk_man wrote:
Okay all, "tweaking" my "system" again. ;)Sorry, lol. Not making a move right now, still 100% S, just wanted to explain what I'm gonna do when I do move so it can soak in.

I'm going to add "dollar cost averaging" to the mix. This is sort of what I did last time I had a "buy" signal. On July 16th I got a "buy" signal for the S at $12.65 so I went 50% S effective July 17th. (I was already 100% C at the time). As we know, prices continued to fall. On July 23rd I decided to go 100% S effective July 24th. This means I was able to "buy" S at $12.18 for a "dollar cost average" per share of $12.41. This afforded me the opportunity to make more money.

That being said, I'm actually up for the month instead of being down. ;)I'm still waiting for another "sell" signal. If I was doing 30-day moving averages instead of 60-day, I'd have a "sell" signal now at $12.48. But, my 60-day signal is $12.80 right now so I'm sticking to it. Will probably drop more in the coming days because we are losing those big days in June.

So my system now includes 4 basic strategies:

1) my origanal idea of buying at 20centsunder the 60-day moving average and selling at30 cents over(unless we are in a down-trending market, as we have been, then the concept is inverted. ( I may end up changing this to a % rather than an actual price at some point something like 2.5% instead of 30 cents, and 1.5% instead of 20cents)

2)Follow 5-day(fast), 21-day(intermediate), and 63-day(slow) moving averages. The fast moving average for the S fund was quickly heading back up to the slow average but has now leveled off a bit. Scares me a little bit.

3)"Dollar cost averaging". I explained this earlier and I believe it may afford me the opportunity to make even more money.

4) Average market sentiment. You have to pay attention to things happening around you. Though most of the time I don't listen. :PBut, ifsomeone blew up the RNC, would you stay in the market?

That's it. Just wanted to let whoever follows this know what I'm going to be doing so you can research it if you like.

Currently up 15.03% for the year. :^

Okay, several have e-mailed me to come back so I'm back if I can help anyone.

FundSurfer, I've quoted a previous post explaining my system again. Yes, my main indicator is using the .20 below and .30 above the 63-day moving average. Although I did recently switch to the 30-day moving average. This may prove not to be the better way to go however,, we'll see. The S fund has reached it's 63-day average but the C and I haven't. Could of may more profit by sticking with the S a bit longer, but I do like when all 3 funds reach my "high" sell point. Will C and I make it? They've hit their 30-day average, but not their 63-day average so like I said, we'll see.

I use the 3 moving averages, 5-day, 21-day, and 63-day to track the market to see if it is trending up or down. If trending up, I would just stay in and ride until we came to another "dip" and vice-versa in a downtrending market. We've gone pretty much sideways, or up and down if you will, all year so I haven't really had to rely on them that much.

I have made a couple of "gut" decisions and it has usually come back to bite in the butt. I try not to "gut" decisions anymore. Just stay with what's working.

As I said before, I have now devised a system that I believe will work better than this system and is much easier to track. No thinking what so ever basically. I have back-tracked it to the first of the year and if I had been following it, would be up 28.37% now instead of 16.81% Not bad, but if we had inverse funds like you can use in an IRA account, I'd be up 48.05% and if we had 2X funds like Profunds offers, I'd be up 97.1%.

I'm not giving this system out right now because I'm not done testing it and do not want to mislead anyone. It'll work fine with TSP right now I think but the main issue is working with the Profund mutual funds because they take 3 days to settle.

Hope I've cleared everything up for you.

Good luck,

M_M

09-16-2004, 12:05 PM

Harley wrote:

Sufer,

MT was 50% I fund when it went from 13.15 to 13.24 and 100% I fund when it went 13.24 to 13.43. Then bailed the day prior to a massive drop. If that is madness...sign me up. Not sure how calcs MT moves but your calc needs new batteries.

I wishMT would return to the board...because it is very dead now.

If you followed mike then you would of went 10.54 to 10.55 per share in the G fund. With him all I see is up 16.52% and up 18.55% for the year. Seems to me his calc needs fresh batteries also.

It is said that poor investors overstate their gains.

Yamaha, I only have a couple of things to say to you. The first being I prefer my "distractors" to call me Mr. M_M. Secondly, I believe I have been saying since Sept. 2nd that I am currently up 16.81% for the year.

Oh one more thing. Why did you decide to change nics MarketTimer?

Mr. M_M ( to you anyway)

09-16-2004, 12:07 PM

Harley wrote:

It is said that poor investors overstate their gains.

Mine are documented. Don't see yours anywhere MT.........:t

FundSurfer

09-17-2004, 08:25 AM

Harley, I seached through the previous post for MarketTimer and they only go back a month. I must have missed the switch to 100% I somewhere. I don't have that switch. I'll be glad to amend my comments if you'll point me to the post. Be sure to look at when MT post versus when he says he makes his moves. I noticed on several occasions that he said he made moves the previous day but had not posted that day. It much easier to make the right moves that way ;).

MT, if your reading this...post your moves in MARKET TIMERS MOVES:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/448.html

That way it will be much easier to follow what you are doing and will kill the critisism. You are only getting critisized because you are giving MM a hard time we he has posted his moves and you haven't. I saw where you said you didn't want to post your moves because of the critisism it would bring but prefer to e-mail them to Tom. Tom on the other hand has shown a lot ofballs to keep his track record open to all after his stumble in July. We all make mistakes, the ultimate winners are those who learn from there mistakes and move on.

M_M I wasn't being critical but rather trying to better understand what you are doing. The biggest thing I had to understand about what you are doing had to do with how you set your sell target. Am I correct that your sell target is set based on the 30 day average the day you buy and doesn't change unless you pass the target in an uptrending market?

09-17-2004, 10:59 AM

FundSurfer wrote:
Harley, I seached through the previous post for MarketTimer and they only go back a month. I must have missed the switch to 100% I somewhere. I don't have that switch. I'll be glad to amend my comments if you'll point me to the post. Be sure to look at when MT post versus when he says he makes his moves. I noticed on several occasions that he said he made moves the previous day but had not posted that day. It much easier to make the right moves that way ;).

MT, if your reading this...post your moves in MARKET TIMERS MOVES:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/448.html

That way it will be much easier to follow what you are doing and will kill the critisism. You are only getting critisized because you are giving MM a hard time we he has posted his moves and you haven't. I saw where you said you didn't want to post your moves because of the critisism it would bring but prefer to e-mail them to Tom. Tom on the other hand has shown a lot ofballs to keep his track record open to all after his stumble in July. We all make mistakes, the ultimate winners are those who learn from there mistakes and move on.

M_M I wasn't being critical but rather trying to better understand what you are doing. The biggest thing I had to understand about what you are doing had to do with how you set your sell target. Am I correct that your sell target is set based on the 30 day average the day you buy and doesn't change unless you pass the target in an uptrending market?

I know you weren't being critical, I was just trying to explain. Yes my last transaction was based on the 30-day moving average which I just switched from using 63-day moving average. If the fund prices hit the high target with the 63-day moving average for all 3 stock funds, I may go back to 63-day moving average. Currently the 63-day moving average high target is C: 12.00. S: 12.88, and I: 13.49. Current prices per share are C: 11.86, S: 12.96 and I'm not sure about the I. So you see the S fund has reached it and then some, the C fund hasn't and I don't believe the I fund has either.

As I've stated before, during uptrending or sidetrending markets my high target is .30 above the moving average, and the low target is .20 below. During downtrending markets, this is inverted so that the high target is .20 above and the low is .30 below. This takes into account lower highs and lower lows. I'll probably change this to percentages as share prices reach higher averages. They will some day won't they? :XProbably use something like 2.5% above and 1.5% below.

The reason I've set these particular limits is because I've noticed that when we get these dips and peaks, we usually rebound 6-7 % from the low. I'm just trying to get 4-5% of that so as not to have too much risk. If you've seen my spreadsheet, sometimes you can get 4% gains in as little as a week, sometimes it takes a couple of months though.

Come to think of it, I may need to switch between 63-day and 30-day moving averages depending on if the market is going up, down, or sideways. Only been doing this for 9 months, so it's not perfected yet. Will take a couple of years and going through all types of market scenerios to do that.

Good Luck!

M_M

09-17-2004, 11:22 AM

mlk_man wrote:

As I said before, I have now devised a system that I believe will work better than this system and is much easier to track. No thinking what so ever basically. I have back-tracked it to the first of the year and if I had been following it, would be up 28.37% now instead of 16.81% Not bad, but if we had inverse funds like you can use in an IRA account, I'd be up 48.05% and if we had 2X funds like Profunds offers, I'd be up 97.1%.

I'm not giving this system out right now because I'm not done testing it and do not want to mislead anyone. It'll work fine with TSP right now I think but the main issue is working with the Profund mutual funds because they take 3 days to settle.

Hope I've cleared everything up for you.

Good luck,

M_M
I've hit a bit of snag with the inverse funds you can use in individual accounts. Seems the 3-day delay in waiting for the mutual funds to clear throws the system off. ETF's maybe? We'll see, but I won't get the tax advantage of a Roth then. I did see a report that leveraged ETF's may be around the corner. IF that happens, it may be worth it to pay taxes on it . Once again, we'll see.

09-17-2004, 11:47 AM

Harley wrote:

Sufer,

MT was 50% I fund when it went from 13.15 to 13.24 and 100% I fund when it went 13.24 to 13.43. Then bailed the day prior to a massive drop. If that is madness...sign me up. Not sure how calcs MT moves but your calc needs new batteries.

I wishMT would return to the board...because it is very dead now.

If you followed mike then you would of went 10.54 to 10.55 per share in the G fund. With him all I see is up 16.52% and up 18.55% for the year. Seems to me his calc needs fresh batteries also.

It is said that poor investors overstate their gains.

You are MT correct? Let me tell ya why I think this and why you're not as smart as you think.

In your first paragraph, you wrote "If that is madness...sign me up." Talking about how good MT's timing is. In your 2nd paragraph, you wrote "I wishMT would return to the board...because it is very dead now." You didn't wish him to return so you could track his timing, you wished he would return because it's "dead" in here now. Didn't MT say once he gets "bored" quickly when there is no commentary going on? Hmmm

"It is said that poor investors overstate their gains." That sure sounds like the way MT talks..............

Silly rabbit, tricks are for kids.................:t

Timer

09-17-2004, 01:28 PM

Okay, several have e-mailed me to come back so I'm back if I can help anyone.

I'm glad that you're back M_M.

09-20-2004, 07:18 AM

Timer wrote:

I'm glad that you're back M_M.
Thank you Timer. Let's get back to making money.

09-20-2004, 11:46 AM

Have you been getting my e-mails? I know you are busy with your folks, etc. I just want to know if you are recieving them?

Joel

09-20-2004, 12:08 PM

jgpalmerdds wrote:
Have you been getting my e-mails? I know you are busy with your folks, etc. I just want to know if you are recieving them?

Joel
Yepper, I sent ya one back this morning. I guess to your home e-mail.

Rod

09-22-2004, 03:33 PM

Hey MM, I'm guessing you are still 100%G?

I believe it may SOON be time to buy into stocks... especially after today's losses.

What do you think?

09-22-2004, 07:12 PM

Rod,

MM and I are working on a new "system" using the 5 day average as well as some other indicators. I have backtested it for 1 1/2 years and itlooks promising. I would like to backtest it further into bear markets, and a more prolonged "bull" (longer than last year). The problem is that they only started keeping individual stock prices in June of last year for the TSP, so I have to go and get Willshire 4500 prices and EAFE prices. Do you know of any other mutual funds that track these prices? This new system will be designed to keep us in prolonged uptrends even past the .2-.3 above the moving average. That is the key. Buy before an uptrend, get out if it goes back down, and have a system that keeps you in if it stays up. We want it all, I guess.

Anyway, the system is very close to a "buy". Also, I don't really look at "historicals", but October, 5 out of the last 6 years has had big gains (even in the middle of bear markets). I may just be "in" for October based on history. Others can probably explain this phenomenon better than I. MM has been busy with his folks, and should be in full force tomorrow. I hope this helps.

Joel

PS- I like the Cross.

Rod

09-23-2004, 02:08 AM

jgpalmerdds wrote:
Rod,

Do you know of any other mutual funds that track these prices?

PS- I like the Cross.

No, I sure don't.

Thanx!:^

09-23-2004, 07:22 AM

jgpalmerdds wrote:
Rod,

MM and I are working on a new "system" using the 5 day average as well as some other indicators. I have backtested it for 1 1/2 years and itlooks promising. I would like to backtest it further into bear markets, and a more prolonged "bull" (longer than last year). The problem is that they only started keeping individual stock prices in June of last year for the TSP, so I have to go and get Willshire 4500 prices and EAFE prices. Do you know of any other mutual funds that track these prices? This new system will be designed to keep us in prolonged uptrends even past the .2-.3 above the moving average. That is the key. Buy before an uptrend, get out if it goes back down, and have a system that keeps you in if it stays up. We want it all, I guess.

Anyway, the system is very close to a "buy". Also, I don't really look at "historicals", but October, 5 out of the last 6 years has had big gains (even in the middle of bear markets). I may just be "in" for October based on history. Others can probably explain this phenomenon better than I. MM has been busy with his folks, and should be in full force tomorrow. I hope this helps.

Joel

PS- I like the Cross.

Joel,

You may want to rethink your system. You were out of the market during a major gain. I would suggest you just follow my lower high, lower low chart. Fairly easy to see when the low goes below the last low is close to a time to buy and sell when the high is getting close to the previous high. Simple, clean and you make money!

MT

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/6m/_/_dji.gif

09-23-2004, 09:53 AM

MarketTimer wrote:

Joel,

You may want to rethink your system. You were out of the market during a major gain. I would suggest you just follow my lower high, lower low chart. Fairly easy to see when the low goes below the last low is close to a time to buy and sell when the high is getting close to the previous high. Simple, clean and you make money!

MT

There he goes again. That was my "old " system MT, please try to keep up! And please stop posting in my account, I'd appreciate it.

Joel, I have us close to a sell not a buy? Let me send you my new data. I've looked at yours and am a little confused by your data.

M_M

09-23-2004, 09:56 AM

mlk_man wrote:
MarketTimer wrote:

Joel,

You may want to rethink your system. You were out of the market during a major gain. I would suggest you just follow my lower high, lower low chart. Fairly easy to see when the low goes below the last low is close to a time to buy and sell when the high is getting close to the previous high. Simple, clean and you make money!

MT

There he goes again. That was my "old " system MT, please try to keep up! And please stop posting in my account, I'd appreciate it.

Joel, I have us close to a sell not a buy? Let me send you my new data. I've looked at yours and am a little confused by your data.

M_M

Buy high, sell low is a great "system".

Can you e-mail it to me also? I love losing money! Close to a sell...how about we need to sell NOW!

MT

09-23-2004, 10:08 AM

M_M

Buy high, sell low is a great "system".

Can you e-mail it to me also? I love losing money! Close to a sell...how about we need to sell NOW!

MT
For those folks who are welcome here, please ignore the riff-raff, they don't know when they aren't wanted.................Some type of "momma didn't love me enough as a child" syndrom I believe.

09-23-2004, 12:03 PM

Okay kids, I've completed my "new" system and after back-testing to the first of the year, I would be up 27.32% for the year. However, if you had a Roth account that let you invest in the Profunds 2X and 2X inverse funds, you would be up 112.29% at this point. :^

Because their are some people on this site that I don't care for now, I will not be posting my system. Sorry. I will however be posting "buy" and "sell" signals for both my old system and my new system. Please track my new system and keep your own record for a few months so that you know I'm not full of hot air like someone else I know on this site.

Proof is in the pudding as they say..........Can't wait to get my Roth account going now. :^

nnuut

09-23-2004, 03:15 PM

Been watching for a while and I think you have a good thing going. Wish I could get in on your new system. Sounds real good. :^Keep up the good work M_M and don't let anyone run you off.:@

neirbod

09-23-2004, 04:03 PM

Hi Mlk,

I have been watching your old system and your allocation changes closely for a few weeks, and think it has a lot going for it. Clearly you've had good results over the past months. I would be very interested in learning at least a little about your new system, even if you are unwilling to go into great detail. I think I speak for others, especiallythoseof uswho are new to this, when I say that any info you would be willing to share would be greatly appreciated.

Dave

jeeperspeepers

09-24-2004, 08:17 AM

neirbod wrote:
Hi Mlk,

I have been watching your old system and your allocation changes closely for a few weeks, and think it has a lot going for it. Clearly you've had good results over the past months. I would be very interested in learning at least a little about your new system, even if you are unwilling to go into great detail. I think I speak for others, especiallythoseof uswho are new to this, when I say that any info you would be willing to share would be greatly appreciated.

Dave

Ditto! Keep us posted.

09-24-2004, 09:31 AM

Bad news on the new system front. My moving averages got all screwed up somehow, so it doesn't look as promising as I had hoped. I'm going to take a break from it for awhile because it's driving me nuts.

I'm currently working on a strategy with my old system that would keep us in longer during bull markets, and out during bear markets. I'm back-testing it now and will let you know the results later on.

Currently 100% G.

Mike

09-24-2004, 09:54 AM

MM,

I agree with you, all these numbers are driving me nuts as well. We need something that works in long uptrends, long downtrends, and markets like this year (narrow trading ranges) The problem we are running into is that we have found excellent systems for consolidation-trading ranges like this year , but it doesn't test well against Bull or bear markets. I like the idea of modifying your system of this year, which has down well in this type of market, then we can back test it against prior markets. It is a great idea to see if you can find a way to stay in during long up trends with your current system, I was thinking the same thing. Say, are you looking at 30 day average or 63 to modify?

Joel

09-24-2004, 09:56 AM

I wrote:

I like the idea of modifying your system of this year, which has down well in this type of market, then we can back test it against prior markets.

I meant

I like the idea of modifying your system of this year, which has done well in this type of market, then we can back test it against prior markets.

This makes more sense. Sorry for the confusion.

Joel

09-24-2004, 12:16 PM

I'm going back to 63-day average since all the funds eventually came back up to this range. I'm still going to track the 30-day also because I'm not quite convinced it won't be better in the long run. We'll see.

I sent you an e-mail about my modification. With my old system, you'd be up about 71% right now using the profunds. :^

I'm outta here, later.

M_M

PS- Got the modification figured out, just back-testing now.

09-24-2004, 01:56 PM

Sounds good.

I'll check it out, too. Have a good week-end. I'll be in touch if need be.

Joel

09-27-2004, 02:45 PM

Hey Joel,

get my e-mail? I think I may have figured it out. Seems to work this year anyway. Would be up about 24% for the year. :^ 92% uses Profunds!!! :shock:

Let me know what you think......

M_M

09-27-2004, 03:00 PM

I live down here in Florida, where the 3rd Hurricane has been by us in 6 weeks!! Anyway, I was without power from 11:00 am yesterday, until 11:00 am today, so I have not seen anything, unless you sent it here, which I'll look for it. I will double check the system against past markets and get back to you. Just in case, I'm looking at and working on something else as well. See ya.

Joel

10-12-2004, 07:43 AM

Hi kids, I'm back...................

Been working on my new system and I finally got it figured out. Have been back testing in different types of markets and works well. I don't have my disk with me, but will post my returns probably tomorrow.

That being said, with my new system I believe we are bullish and would have sold Friday at yesterday's prices and bought back into the S fund today, which is what I plan to do. I believe today will be down, so a good time to buy. Especially if we are indeed bullish. We'll see.

I will post again tomorrow with my results.

Currently going 100% S fund effective today.

Good luck!

M_M

10-12-2004, 08:16 AM

Almost forgot, I will be posting my moves about 9-9:30pm Monday thru Friday for the rest of the year. As long as my puter co-operates that is. After the first of the year you'll have to e-mail me to continue to follow me. This site is getting more and more rude peeps in it and I have friends and family that want my help and don't need the BS.

Good luck folks!!

M_M

puertorico

10-12-2004, 10:02 AM

mlk_man wrote:
Hi kids, I'm back...................

That being said, with my new system I believe we are bullish and would have sold Friday at yesterday's prices and bought back into the S fund today, which is what I plan to do. I believe today will be down, so a good time to buy. Especially if we are indeed bullish. We'll see.

M_M

tHinking to put some in S tOday too...:Dtoday look very bad

day becouse dollar is up.and market isred and crude oil 53.

I was looking for an excuse to buy some today,and u JUST give it to me

the green light:^current 100-G.

tomorrow 60-G 40-S "thinking about it"...;)

Timer

10-12-2004, 11:27 AM

mlk_man wrote:
Almost forgot, I will be posting my moves about 9-9:30pm Monday thru Friday for the rest of the year. As long as my puter co-operates that is. After the first of the year you'll have to e-mail me to continue to follow me. This site is getting more and more rude peeps in it and I have friends and family that want my help and don't need the BS.

Good luck folks!!

M_M

M_M

Sorry to see it come to this but I understand. I hang out here less and less now. The tone has changed. Where will you be doing this posting? I missed your email, you can reach me at ichbinjd@hotmail.com (mailto:ichbinjd@hotmail.com).

Thanks, Timer

10-12-2004, 11:37 AM

Timer wrote:
Sorry to see it come to this but I understand. I hang out here less and less now. The tone has changed. Where will you be doing this posting? I missed your email, you can reach me at ichbinjd@hotmail.com (mailto:ichbinjd@hotmail.com).

Thanks, Timer

Thanks Timer, my e-mail is mlk_man@yahoo.com (mailto:mlk_man@yahoo.com). I'll probably check back here once in awhile to see what's happening, just won't post my returns anymore. Some one I don't care for may use my moves and claim them as his own. If you know what I mean..............;)

M_M

tsptalk

10-12-2004, 01:01 PM

mlk_man wrote:
I'll probably check back here once in awhile to see what's happening, just won't post my returns anymore. Some one I don't care for may use my moves and claim them as his own. If you know what I mean..............;)

M_M

We have ways of dealingwiththe disruptive ones :s :).

The key is not to feed them but if the harrassment continues they can be eliminated.

TheProphet

10-12-2004, 01:47 PM

Timer,

What happen... What id going on... Is it anything I can do to help you...

Leon

10-14-2004, 09:44 AM

Going 100% F fund today to correct my earlier mistake. I hate to admit it, but MT was right, we are currently in a short bear market. Long term and intermediate are still bullish, but not right now.

Good luck alll...............

smine

10-14-2004, 10:32 AM

His last post said he won't be back, so he may never see your comment that he was right. Wished I had heeded his advice. Sorry to seeanyone leave the forum.

10-14-2004, 02:06 PM

smine wrote:
His last post said he won't be back, so he may never see your comment that he was right. Wished I had heeded his advice. Sorry to seeanyone leave the forum.Don't worry, he'll see it. Either as MT or someone else. :^

smine

10-14-2004, 02:14 PM

Well, like you, I am cutting losses and moving all to F. I am sorry I didn't bail on the 6th after gaining a good amount.

10-15-2004, 10:37 AM

Good luck with the F fund. It's purely speculation because I usually just hide out in G , but F is trending up.

The S fund price is now below it's 30-day moving average so I'll be looking for an opportunity to jump back in soon, I really don't think we are gonna test our lows for the year again.

M_M

Timer

10-15-2004, 11:27 AM

mlk_man wrote:
Good luck with the F fund. It's purely speculation because I usually just hide out in G , but F is trending up.

The S fund price is now below it's 30-day moving average so I'll be looking for an opportunity to jump back in soon, I really don't think we are gonna test our lows for the year again.

M_M
F fund looks good to me too. Look at the MA's on tspmoney.com. :^

10-15-2004, 12:56 PM

I'm going F effective the end of today, too. It looks as if the market is getting a good "bounce" today, to make up for some losses (-3%, for me before today).

Joel

10-15-2004, 01:58 PM

Joel,

I'll send you my data tomorrow probably. Looks good I must say! :^Up 20% in 2001!!!

Timer

10-15-2004, 02:10 PM

mlk_man wrote:
Thank you Timer. Let's get back to making money.Yes, Please.

smine

10-15-2004, 08:02 PM

Remind me again why we moved 100% to F, the only fund to lose today?

10-18-2004, 06:56 AM

smine wrote:
Remind me again why we moved 100% to F, the only fund to lose today? You may find that out today smine.............

smine

10-18-2004, 08:18 PM

Un huh.

FundSurfer

10-18-2004, 10:32 PM

M_M, is your new method a variation on your previous theme? (buying dips and selling peaks) Just a more aggressive version? I only looked at the first year so far (getting late) but it looks like you added some twist that had to do with bailing out after a couple bad days and getting back in after a recent sell after a gain if the market keeps going up? Hope I'm not too confusing, I'm still new to the language of being an active trader. This strategy is what helps your former system with longer bull/bear markets. Are you still using a target for gain after a buy or just waiting for the short term indicator to turn?

10-19-2004, 07:17 AM

FundSurfer wrote:
M_M, is your new method a variation on your previous theme? (buying dips and selling peaks) Just a more aggressive version? I only looked at the first year so far (getting late) but it looks like you added some twist that had to do with bailing out after a couple bad days and getting back in after a recent sell after a gain if the market keeps going up? Hope I'm not too confusing, I'm still new to the language of being an active trader. This strategy is what helps your former system with longer bull/bear markets. Are you still using a target for gain after a buy or just waiting for the short term indicator to turn?
Very good FundSurfer, you're learning. Now don't give away too much will ya? LOL

Yep, still buying dips and selling peaks. The only time it may hurt ya is in long term bull markets. A little anyway. But hey, I'll take 37% as opposed to 42% as long as I'm beating it hands down the rest of the time.

Take care and good luck,

M_M

10-19-2004, 08:56 AM

mlk_man wrote:
Going 100% F fund today to correct my earlier mistake. I hate to admit it, but MT was right, we are currently in a short bear market. Long term and intermediate are still bullish, but not right now.

Good luck alll...............

Hmmm, just went into my account to switch back to S and apparently my switch to F fund never took place!!! Ummm should I thank TSP or be pissed?

I won't count this towards my gains for the year since it was an assident. ;)

namor

10-19-2004, 09:07 AM

mlk_man wrote:
Hmmm, just went into my account to switch back to S and apparently my switch to F fund never took place!!! Ummm should I thank TSP or be pissed?

I won't count this towards my gains for the year since it was an assident. ;)

Hey mlk_man:

Did you receive the email confirmation of the switch and it never happened?

I would be concerned if that happened to me, whether or not it worked out in my favor. It would tell me that the TSP website is unreliable. And it would definitely be something to report, maybe to your Congressman, because Congress grilled TSP when they did not have the process in place on their original schedule. Perhaps it's time for them to re-visit TSP and see if there are any more problems.

10-19-2004, 10:26 AM

Hmmm, I really don't re-call, I usually just delete them. I won't from now on though.

Thanks

10-27-2004, 08:20 AM

And by the way that "system" that gave you the insight to get in the F fund... smooth move. Those kind of "systems" are the ones we all are clamoring for here. I have a "system" for your "system" Mine is called the sewer system and your "system" qualifies.

Keep on tweakin.....and refining........and noodling.......and revising.......and changing.......and.........

GUESSING

10-27-2004, 08:29 AM

I taught I saw a puddy cat. I did see a puddy cat!!!! Oh, tat is one ugly lookin' ...........nah, I won't say it, this being a family site and all.........:^

10-28-2004, 09:29 AM

You are perfect for the grocery store. IMPULSE BUYER EXTRAORDINARE!!!!!!! Go ahead and buy in the S fund. You missed the boat and now your chasing. There's no system telling you to get in now. You are tweaked you missed the rally and hope to get a piece by chance. Too late this time my friend. But man I would love to get you in a poker game. Classic lollipop move.

10-28-2004, 11:23 AM

tsptakedown wrote:
You are perfect for the grocery store. IMPULSE BUYER EXTRAORDINARE!!!!!!! Go ahead and buy in the S fund. You missed the boat and now your chasing. There's no system telling you to get in now. You are tweaked you missed the rally and hope to get a piece by chance. Too late this time my friend. But man I would love to get you in a poker game. Classic lollipop move.
Hey MarketTimer, why you just come on out and be a man? You afraid of me? Bak, bak, bak............. You're one of those guys that hides behind their computer screens aren't ya? How's that G fund going "chicken little"? LOL

Watch out, here comes the sky..................:end: Come to think of it, you are pretty "bearish" aren't ya MT?

11-04-2004, 01:45 PM

mlk_man wrote:
tsptakedown wrote:
You are perfect for the grocery store. IMPULSE BUYER EXTRAORDINARE!!!!!!! Go ahead and buy in the S fund. You missed the boat and now your chasing. There's no system telling you to get in now. You are tweaked you missed the rally and hope to get a piece by chance. Too late this time my friend. But man I would love to get you in a poker game. Classic lollipop move.
Hey MarketTimer, why you just come on out and be a man? You afraid of me? Bak, bak, bak............. You're one of those guys that hides behind their computer screens aren't ya? How's that G fund going "chicken little"? LOL

Watch out, here comes the sky..................:end: Come to think of it, you are pretty "bearish" aren't ya MT?

Guess "someone" should of came with me and my "system". :^

THose darn impulse buys, I tell ya...................