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Pilgrim
01-26-2006, 12:16 PM
check out:

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2006/02/06/8367940/index.htm

How good does anyone think such analysis is? As good as reading tea leaves? Numerology? Something to take seriously????

The_Technician
01-26-2006, 12:53 PM
I have been teaching those guys for years.......:D

Not really, but I have been seeing this position for about a year now......I wonder when it will finally hit the skids......alot of things have pointed to soon....I have mentioned that Feb is a good start....of course i was speculating it could start in Mid Jan , but I think that has been proven wrong......even though we did get a hit.....

I would keep looking out for it due mainly to two main industries that drive economies are on the brink due to the various factors........housing and Autos and other transportation....there is a lot to lose when we lose them....

I'm not really sure what Birch is talking about.... but the I fund could be going good for a while.....things seem to be changing overseas some....and overseas is where people need to progress the most.....look for the S&P companies invested in overseas investments (manufacturing and sales) to do well.....also buy foreign currency.....

KAPLOWD
01-26-2006, 01:41 PM
Here's my 2 cents. That article isn't worth the price that the g fund is going to pay.

Here's somebody who has some substance and guts.

http://www.hsdent.com/download/forecast10-05.pdf

dell
01-26-2006, 07:16 PM
Great article !! I have some of his books. I note where he recommends a position in the Pacific Rim ex Japan. What does he not like about Japan?

Dell

tsptalk
01-26-2006, 08:31 PM
check out:

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2006/02/06/8367940/index.htm

How good does anyone think such analysis is? As good as reading tea leaves? Numerology? Something to take seriously????




Acampora says his long-term outlook is still bullish. In fact, his advice to investors is to get ready for a major buying opportunity. "If we are correct, this selloff will set the stage for a major market bottom--a classic four-year low," he says. "Then, I think, the market has a gangbuster move going into the latter part of 2006, all of 2007, and probably 2008."


Sounds like he's been reading the TSP Talk comments. He's in big trouble. :)

KAPLOWD
01-27-2006, 09:25 AM
Hi Dell,

Glad there's another Dent fan around here.

HS Dent, excludes Japan because their spending wave is the opposite of ours, Europe and the Pacific rim. When Japan is up we're down and when we're up their down. That's one of the reasons why playing the I fund is hard, because it includes Japan. The spending wave is the graph of people born each year and then projected into the future 47-49 years. Refer to the "Key Concepts" on www.hsdent.com

dell
01-27-2006, 05:04 PM
Thanks for the info and the link.

robo
01-27-2006, 06:00 PM
check out:

How good does anyone think such analysis is? As good as reading tea leaves? Numerology? Something to take seriously????

We are going to see many articles on this subject this year. Makes for good water cooler talk. However, some investors will stay out of the market due to articles like this. Not me! The Trend is our friend! If we do get this correction it will be a great buying Op for longer term investing and could be the start of another Bull Run!!!! In the years 2000 to 2002 we had some corrections Brother.

Birchtree can tell ya. Trillions in share prices GONE. Talk about roller coaster rides!!! YA BABY, those were wild years!!!!!


http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/griess/2006/0124.html

Birchtree
01-27-2006, 06:46 PM
Robo,

There is the possibility that folks will be waiting for a 4 year cycle low that never arrives. My silly thinking is that it bottomed last October along with a nine month cycle. I'm still searching for the secular bull - the 4 year came a year early. So me thinks - you know I'm a hold and suffer so it really doesn't matter that much. Even if we get one it won't be deep or painful. Got any of those pretty graphs to display? You realize we just had 4 consecutive days of better than 2 to 1 ratios - shows bull character. Take care.

Dennis - the humble bull

TiCKed
01-27-2006, 07:32 PM
I'm no market analyst.....

I’m an engineer by training, and very logical by nature. I even subscribe to Skeptic Magazine, so I’m somewhat obsessed by logical thought. :D

As such, I agree that there are fundamental numbers and influences that make the market predictable to a degree. Someone who can churn those numbers and make no-nonsense decisions based on them has an advantage in picking the trend of the market. They won’t always be right, but that’s just proof that the market is more complex than a mechanical system. Psychology, economic conditions, and world events will often throw off even the best calculation.

But I cannot see the sense in some of the voodoo analysis I read. Here I’m talking specifically about the “4 year cycle”, and what is seemingly, (if you read the “analysis” closely), a required 10-20% drop.

Does anyone really believe the stock market is a mechanical system that can be assumed to have an inherent period? Has anyone stopped to look at the past 10-20% drops, and found that they were actually caused by an identifiable event, or series of events, or economic conditions? I'm willing to bet they were. If so, does anyone really believe those EVENTS or conditions are tied together by a 4 year cycle of cosmic significance?

Don’t get me wrong….there certainly could be a huge drop in our near future, and there are plenty of potential causes that can easily be identified. (Oil, Iran, Middle East politics, Terrorism, South America, etc., etc., etc.). Guessing what will happen, and when it will happen, is beyond our ability to calculate. So, I would propose that those who claim we are “overdue” for a drop, or think they can predict the range of DATES for the drop, are just performing voodoo. Nothing more.

Listen to them at your own risk.

There….glad I got that off my chest.....I feel better now. ;)

Birchtree
01-27-2006, 07:51 PM
Ticked,

Will you consider the lead position on the potential October 06 bottom? If you'll ride the storm perhaps you will garner companionship and we can all enjoy the inherent pain that will be delivered together. This is all part of what makes a bull market.

Dennis

TiCKed
01-27-2006, 08:00 PM
I take no position at all! We may dump 30% tomorrow, or we may double our money next week for all I know! :)

But I am pretty sure that neither space aliens nor Elvis will be the cause of either one. :D

(I'm a "buy and hold...but maybe I can miss a dip" kinda guy.)

robo
01-27-2006, 08:04 PM
Birchtree,

I should be paying you for advice.. I get daily reports from FOUR, Yes, FOUR TA's on if I should be Long, or Cash in the market! ALL FOUR WERE SHORRRRT THE MARKET THIS WEEK. I exited some long postions based on ALL FOUR SHORTING the market... Should have known better..

Missed out on some nice gains, but my Emerging markets and Pacific funds in Vanguard helped out. I bought the S&P 500 dip, but exited the trade with only a few points gained after TA's were shouting PULLBACK and HEADFAKE!!! Back to cash and waiting for a pullback, or should I say Hoping...

I'm going to use a percentage of my equity postion in my total portfolio and sign up for the Sharks service and weekly recommendations. I'll compare his returns against some of the other TA's I use.

He has already made me money. I stayed in some small cap trades longer based on his comments. The price he is charging is less than some of the other TA's I'm using and they are having a bad year. I do have my Bob Brinker accounts in American Century and Vanguard and like you don't move them much. Keep us straight BIG BULL... Lots of little Bulls out here...

GO GO Birchtree!!!

Have a good weekend my friend!!!

Birchtree
02-04-2006, 06:03 PM
Robo,

I didn't realize the S&P 500 gain was so much - 1398%. I'm only looking for 34% this year on the S&P.

Secular bull megatrend - I like the sound of it - it's so unappreciated.

I wonder how high and with confirmed volume do we go before he recognizes in print we are in a back to back secular bull market trend that could evolve into another megatrend of 15 - 16 years. Thanks for the heads up.

Dennis - permabull #2

saturneptune
02-04-2006, 09:06 PM
Retirement is 2 or so years away. I am in L2010 100%. It is very difficult for me to stay in the G fund. With all the negative comments about the future of the C, S and I fund, I am beginning to wonder if I am doing the right thing.
Any thoughts appreciated.

Birchtree
02-04-2006, 10:15 PM
Saturneptune,

Are you another cdiFrances with a power account? If so you will need to develope a strategy to further accumulate wealth both during the next two years and also durung retirement. It's never to late to make big bucks if you have big bucks to make it with. It's so much easier to be negative than to maintain a bullish perspective - but I take risks and I continue to earn my stripes. When the preponderance of evidence suggests that you should join friends in the G fund - do the exact opposite and buy a stock fund. It probably really doesn't matter at this point in time - but I prefer the C fund for a myriad of reasons.

Dennis

saturneptune
02-04-2006, 10:23 PM
Dennis,
Thanks for your reply. Im not sure what a cdi francis is, but I have around 132 in TSP. I am leaving the postal service in two years, but plan on working other places. I will probably not take the TSP out in two years. Thanks for your insight.

Pilgrim
03-07-2006, 09:51 AM
Will the Fed overshoot??

I grew up in a gas station that my family owned. A mechanic was once showing me how to torque the headbolts on a ford flathead. He related that when he was a boy on the farm, hay was still baled by hand. An old farm hand showed him how and told him, "When you get the wire to the point that you're sure that just one more twist will be perfect, STOP RIGHT THERE! If you do that, you will never break a piece of baling wire."

Sounds like good advice for the Fed.

Pilgrim
05-02-2006, 11:40 AM
HJow much could we lose in a single day??

There are only the "circuit breakers".

"In essence they maintain a 10, 20 and 30% standard. - 10% drop: 1 hour halt, no affect after 2:30pm. - 20% drop: 2 hour halt before 1pm, 1 hour halt before 2pm, permanent halt for the day after 2pm. - 30% drop: halts trading for the remainder of the day."

The_Technician
05-30-2006, 01:06 PM
I'm getting technical data that says we have some negative events immediate upon us and thru summer....(first couple of weeks in June doesn't look good) .....I believe I mentioned this last month or so that the summer didn't look great.....and several others on the board have also made that determination....

I know the markets look low at the moment for the last couple of weeks declines, but this really begs to be cautious....it is highly risky to be in the market in my opinion.....

Birchtree
05-30-2006, 01:39 PM
My good man, it's a risky business. The more the risk the greater the opportunity. That's the difference - bearing the pain needlessly for future gain. Some do, some won't, some are lazy like me and do just fine.

Pilgrim
05-31-2006, 09:57 AM
By Mark Hulbert (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=109+104+117+108+98+101+114+116&y=Mark+Hulbert&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7Baf5ac918-12a4-4dc8-8e94-231dfdf6ccec%7D&siteid=mktw), MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET May 31, 2006

"Much to my surprise, I found that the stock market's probabilities of rising between June 1 and Aug. 31 actually go up when May is a down month. Consider first those years in which May produced as big or bigger loss as it has so far this year. Since the mid 1890s, when the DJIA was created, a total of 26 years qualify. The DJIA's average summer gain during those 26 years was 6.3%.


Contrast that with the summer gains during years in which the DJIA in May did better than it has in 2006. The average three-month gain during those summers was 2.5%.


This difference turns out to be significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use."

nnuut
05-31-2006, 06:37 PM
Very, very intresting Pilgrim! The Hell I won't (john Wayne)!:D

Birchtree
05-31-2006, 07:24 PM
Pilgrim,

Stay on the hunt for those nuggets - just what we (some anyway) need to read - I'm sick and tired of the dollar trashers and midnight snackers. Give me some positive bull manure to make my portfolio grow. Thanks again.

Dennis