Transfer 6/8 for 6/9/04

Well ladies and gents, I have initiated a move to take my limited exposure (and gains) 10% C, 10% S, and 15% I, and move into the G until further notice. I don't know how far and wide Greenspan remarks will go...plus with the government day off and Market s closed Friday....I WILL REST until next week.

Sorry to hear you weren't more loaded in stocks, I actually got lucky because I tought I was all G Monday. I forgot I went all C on Friday though. <:o) All G today but I think I may go back intoC for Thursday and then back out for Monday. Little leary of the S fund at this point. According to Tom's chart the 8th is a typically a fairly good stock day, which is Thursday. After that, I'll ride the pine for awhile till coach tells me to go back in. :^I

[SIERRAVEGAS]

My 50 - 50 C and S are going to G today. I'll wait out the long weekend and

Greenspan's comments. I'm taking profit and hiding. ;)

[Rolo]

Welcome, SIERRAVEGAS!

Perhaps you could find Tom and make a contribution to the "T fund". :D hehe

[tsptalk]

Welcome SierraVegas! Thanks for joining us.

Oh, I 'm not too sorry, because the thing worse then a missed opportunity is getting caught in equitiies at the wrong time. So I played the "safe' game and was able to take back some gains to the G Ponderosa. But I will be back bigger/better/badder?! then ever in the EQUITIES:). Until then just waiting and watching.

[Frizz B.]

My FRO indicator was at 315 for yesterday, with all the scuddle going around, I decided it had gone high enough for now so I moved it into the G fund as of this morning. I have been burned the last 2 times trying the F fund. Tom, how do you feel about the F fund, I know we are down for the year, so far. After the 1 penny we get in the G, I might be looking towards the F fund.

[$hunter]

If I retreat to G this morning when will it take effect since the Government offices are closed Friday.

[Rolo]

I am staring doom:s right in the face :cool:.

Seventy in S
And thirty percent in C;
Rain, rain, go away!





http://www.investopedia.com/images/terms/darkcloud.gif


lol!...yes, that is a haiku. This is a Japanese "Dark Cloud Cover" formation. Kinda resembles $SPX, but not really.

[oneyoungbuck]

Well I was 100%G for today, thanx to all the tsptalk info, tomorrow I am going 50%G and 50%S. I have a feeling based on the differentials and that the market is closed Friday, that the S Fund will have some gain.

[oneyoungbuck]

If you make the change before 12 noon EST it will be in effect for tomorrow. Hope that helps.

[Rolo]

Rising Three Methods is what I have been thinking since the breakout Monday. So far, so good for day 3, and I am optimistic for next Monday.


http://www.investopedia.com/images/articles/techanalysis/012203_1.gif
This pattern starts out with what is called a "long white day." Then, on the second, third, and fourth trading sessions small real bodies appear--these small real bodies form from a fall off in price, but they still stay within the price range of the long white day (day one in the pattern). The fifth and last day of the pattern shows another long white day. This pattern is, in the world of Japanese candlestick charting, a very bullish chart. It shows an upward trend on day one with investors taking a few trading sessions to relax to prepare for the next rise in price that occurs on the fifth day. Even though the pattern shows us that the prices are falling for three straight days, a new low is not seen and the bulls prepare for the next leg up.

[tsptalk]

Frizz B. wrote:
My FRO indicator was at 315 for yesterday, with all the scuddle going around, I decided it had gone high enough for now so I moved it into the G fund as of this morning. I have been burned the last 2 times trying the F fund. Tom, how do you feel about the F fund, I know we are down for the year, so far. After the 1 penny we get in the G, I might be looking towards the F fund.
The F fund doesn't look too bad from a technical standpoint. The bond market seems to have reacted to the rates being increased but it could always be spooked again. It's still a risk but I think the worst is over. It could work out but I don't know if the risk/reward is worth playingjust yet.

Rolo wrote:
Rising Three Methods is what I have been thinking since the breakout Monday. So far, so good for day 3, and I am optimistic for next Monday.





http://www.investopedia.com/images/articles/techanalysis/012203_1.gif



This pattern starts out with what is called a "long white day." Then, on the second, third, and fourth trading sessions small real bodies appear--these small real bodies form from a fall off in price, but they still stay within the price range of the long white day (day one in the pattern). The fifth and last day of the pattern shows another long white day. This pattern is, in the world of Japanese candlestick charting, a very bullish chart. It shows an upward trend on day one with investors taking a few trading sessions to relax to prepare for the next rise in price that occurs on the fifth day. Even though the pattern shows us that the prices are falling for three straight days, a new low is not seen and the bulls prepare for the next leg up.Why even stay in on days 2, 3, and 4? Why not get out then back in on the 5th day? Would save some losses no? Putting the house on the C fund for Thursday!

[Rolo]

mlk_man wrote:
Why even stay in on days 2, 3, and 4? Why not get out then back in on the 5th day? Would save some losses no? Putting the house on the C fund for Thursday!
Low return for the very high risk in speculating with this voodoo. :D

There were a few other potential patterns as the market developed. If today were a long white day, which was a possibility, I would have missed it. Long white day/short black day, flip a coin; there ismore to gain, little to lose by my staying in.I believe in the overall uptrend, so I shall default to that in the absence of hard facts--the same concept as Tom's staying at a minimum of 60% stocks in a bull market.

Also, I've screwed myself in the past by trading stocks and funds too quickly, missing out on gains; I do not want impatience to get the better of me.

[Rolo]

Actually, in this case, it is pretty much impossible with the TSP due to the lag. I would have had to anticipate Monday's close early Friday to sell, anticipate the next four days completely, and anticipate Thursday's close (which hasn't happened yet) this morning to buy back.

But, my last post does still hold true, too.

Wow, it looks like I might be back in sooner then later...can you believe the10 point nose dive of the S&P...given the rather tame loses for the Nas and Dow. May be looking for a buying opportunity tomorrow if things are still in a retreat mode.



WHOA, my numbers were not refreshed...retreat not so large.

Still may be looking for a buying opp.

[Rolo]

retire rich wrote:
WHOA, my numbers were not refreshed...retreat not so large.

Still may be looking for a buying opp.

Haha, I did the same thing!...saw this HUGE black candlestick, then later a long shadow.

As far as patterns go, I like the long black day better...it's like a pullback-in-a-day, then resumes its uptrend. I really don't know what to make of it now, but I'm not quite as short-term bull-headedly bullish as I was this morning.

"Ow...didn't hurt!" :P

hehe

One big selling day is to be expected after two days of buying pressure like we just had, so I'm still thinking, "Resistance is futile." :D

[smine]

Buy low, sell high. That's why I retreated 100% to G in time to hold on to my meager dollars! Will consider getting C and S if it gets low enough. I believe I'll get the hang of this yet!:)

[reg]

Has anyone looked at a 50%G and 50%C strategy to balance out the curve. I have heard the 50%cash and 50% equities strategy returns about 80% of the market upside and certainlymoderates the downside with less loss?

[tsptalk]

reg wrote:
Has anyone looked at a 50%G and 50%C strategy to balance out the curve. I have heard the 50%cash and 50% equities strategy returns about 80% of the market upside and certainlymoderates the downside with less loss?
Welcomereq!

I haven't heard of that strategy. It sounds pretty conservative and I doubt it is a good long term strategy. If you plan to stay in one allocationand you have several years before you need the money, I think you are better off in a more aggresive allocation.

Thanks for joining us!
Tom

[Frizz B.]

BE BOLD, ALL OR NOTHING, THAT'S MY STRATEGY, WAS 100% S, NOW 100% G

[Rolo]

reg wrote:
Has anyone looked at a 50%G and 50%C strategy to balance out the curve. I have heard the 50%cash and 50% equities strategy returns about 80% of the market upside and certainlymoderates the downside with less loss?
I would not call thata strategy; that is only being halfway invested.

If the market goes up more than it goes down--and over time is always does--then you will have rounded down the profits more than you have rounded up the losses.

You would have to rebalance regularly and the timing would affect the return. If you get the timing down, then you would know when to be in and when to be out anyway. The "hands-free" method is not entirely hands-free.

Sure glad I was 100% g Wednesday! I'm feeling good about today though. 100% C! Maybe I'm just feeling good about being off tomorrow, who knows. If the market goes up early, I'll get out for awhile. If it goes down, I'll stay in for Monday. Good Luck All!