View Full Version : Moves Month to Month Based Upon History
gunyvw
01-10-2006, 07:14 AM
who (if anyone) is reallocating their accounts using history...
neg. months vs pos. ones...
if so what time frame and which months are you using
it appears that in 18 years... (could 5 years be better since 2000?)
first Q will give up 2 neg months on ave. ----- JAN, MAR
second Q will give up 1 ------ JUNE
third Q 2 ------- JULY, SEPT
fourth all in for the C fund and above
also all Stock funds C S I fund move in sync. when one is neg they are all neg.
just my little novice observation... any help or direction here would be appreciated
Birchtree
01-10-2006, 09:17 AM
gunyvw,
During the bubble years of the late 1990s, foreign markets peaked and declined, while the U.S. indexes kept rising. Now, investors have shifted back toward foreign markets, especially Asian ones. Those markets have rebounded strongly, leaving overall indexes of foreign markets at recoed highs.
Dennis
Wizard
01-10-2006, 09:23 AM
Record high???????????
Wizard
01-10-2006, 09:30 AM
Here is what a triple top looks like:
:)
mlk_man
01-10-2006, 09:35 AM
Wizard, have you posted here under a different name before?
roguewave
01-10-2006, 12:19 PM
who (if anyone) is reallocating their accounts using history...
neg. months vs pos. ones...
if so what time frame and which months are you using
it appears that in 18 years... (could 5 years be better since 2000?)
first Q will give up 2 neg months on ave. ----- JAN, MAR
second Q will give up 1 ------ JUNE
third Q 2 ------- JULY, SEPT
fourth all in for the C fund and above
also all Stock funds C S I fund move in sync. when one is neg they are all neg.
just my little novice observation... any help or direction here would be appreciated
Here's five years of data to help in your analysis.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=EFA&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=%5ERUT&c=%5EGSPC&c=%5EDJI
gunyvw
01-11-2006, 04:09 AM
thanks guys for the input
i did 2 things here...
first- i compiled -18 yrs of ALL neg. closure-
FIRST Q
2 months neg.
JAN-MARCH... *FEB
SECOND Q
1 month
JUNE... *APRIL
THIRD Q
3 months
JULY-AUG-SEPT
FORTH Q
NONE... *OCT
*months that are close but under the avg.
second - CSi fund closure(s) that where below 1 point where factored (the close to neutral or pos. but no cigar)
FIRST Q
JAN-becomes avg.
SECOND Q
JUNE-becomes avg.
THIRD Q
JULY-becomes avg.
FORTH Q
OCT-falls well below the avg.
none of which is high science but an interesting pattern. i will watch over the next few months to make observation and adjustments.
...of course all current enviromental factors always apply
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