Fivetears Account Talk

[Fivetears]

Anyone interested in the odds or curious about the Positive / Negative return statistics for the G, F, C, S, & I Funds for the month of January... They are as follows:

G Fund: 18 of 18 years POSITIVE :rolleyes:
F Fund: 14 of 18 years POSITIVE
C Fund: 11 of 18 years POSITIVE
S Fund: 02 of 5 years POSITIVE
I Fund: 01 of 5 years POSITIVE

[Fivetears]

My Allocation Combined Return Rates for October 2005 - (2.33)%
My Allocation Combined Return Rates for November 2005 - 4.71%
My Allocation Combined Return Rates for December 2005 - 2.14%

[Fivetears]

Made a NICE 'ALL IN" call for a timed Thurday - Friday hand of "Texas Hold'em" in the "I" Fund. Sweet chunk of change. Sure wish I could have been "all in" for the Monday - Tuesday hand though. There will be another day or two for certain before February. I'm sure we'll find it. :)

Thanks tsptalk.com Board & Members

I Like it :cool:

My Goal - find & snag up 2% a month for 2006.

[Fivetears]

Looking ahead to next week, investors are expected to closely watch December's retail sales figures and the Producer Price Index, both due next Friday, for more clues about the economy's strength.

[Fivetears]

Oh no. Not the dreaded one star. :rolleyes:

[Fivetears]

NEW YORK (Reuters)
U.S. stocks could rally on corporate earnings reports Monday and Tuesday.

Earnings for companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index are expected to have risen 13.9 percent from a year ago, according to Reuters Estimates. But with key inflation data also on tap and a handful of Fed officials lined up for speaking engagements, investors could tread with some degree of caution.

If, in any way, corporate earnings disappoint, that could take away this new year's early winning streak

A lot of investors are going to be looking for the effect of higher energy costs on profits because crude has quietly crept up above $60 a barrel.

INFLATION DATA, OUTLOOKS KEY

"I think we'll have a positive week," said Peter Cardillo, chief market analyst and chief strategist at SW Bach and Co.

"Generally, we are going to see earnings OK and the market would respond to good earnings, and more so to what the companies say about their outlook," he added.

On the economic data front, investors face the release of November trade data on Thursday, and the following day the December producer price index and monthly retail sales.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the PPI to show prices at the factory gate to have risen by 0.2 percent in December following a drop of 0.7 percent in November.

Excluding the volatile food and energy prices, economists also expect a 0.2 percent rise versus a gain of 0.1 percent in the prior month.

"Next week's retail sales numbers and inflation numbers are going to be some key statistics to give us a little bit more input into where the Fed stands," said Barry Hyman, equity market strategist at Ehrenkrantz, King, Nussbaum.

[Fivetears]

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Confidence in the U.S. economy eased slightly in January with some concern over rising home heating costs and still-strong gasoline prices.

[Fivetears]

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Stocks slipped Tuesday after the Federal Reserve boosted a key short-term interest rate by a quarter-percentage point as expected, and said more rate hikes may be needed.

Stocks were also set for a weak open Wednesday, following disappointing quarterly results from Google after the close of trade -- which sent Nasdaq and S&P futures lower.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index (down 5.12 to 1,280.08, Charts) lost 0.4 percent, while the Dow Jones industrial average (down 35.06 to 10,864.86, Charts) lost 0.3 percent. The Nasdaq composite (down 0.96 to 2,305.82, Charts) ended just below unchanged.

The three major gauges had see-sawed on both sides of the unchanged line following the 2:15 p.m. ET Fed announcement, as investors attempted to digest the implications of the news and statement.

However, the tone turned more negative just before the close, as Wall Street geared up for Google.

After the close, the Web leader reported quarterly earnings that met revenue forecasts but missed earnings expectations. (Full Story).

Shares fell over 13 percent in extended-hours trade and weighed on other tech stocks, including Yahoo! (Research) and eBay (Research).

“It’s disappointing, but not entirely surprising,” said Donald Selkin, director of research at Joseph Stevens, noting that many bellwether tech companies have issued disappointing results or forecasts for the last quarter of 2005, including Yahoo!, Intel and Motorola.

In addition, Google stock has surged more than 400 percent since its debut as a public company in the summer of 2004, which both raised expectations for the company’s earnings potential to lofty levels and made the stock ripe for some profit taking, Selkin noted.

“The open tomorrow is going to be bad,” Selkin added. “But the market will digest this and if the jobs report Friday is decent, maybe we can finish up the week on the upside.”

The January jobs report is due Friday. Ahead of that, investors will take in readings on construction spending and manufacturing Wednesday morning. Wednesday also brings earnings from Boeing (Research) and Time Warner (Research).

On an up note, the S&P 500 ended January in the plus column, which could be a good harbinger for the year, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

For the month, the S&P 500 added 2.6 percent, the Dow 30 added 1.4 percent and the Nasdaq composite added 4.5 percent.

Fed boosts rates
Fed policy makers met Tuesday, led for the last time by Chairman Alan Greenspan. As expected, the central bankers opted to boost the Fed funds rate, an overnight bank lending rate, by a quarter-percentage point to 4.5 percent, the 14th consecutive rate hike since June 2004. (Full story.)

In its statement, the Fed acknowledged the strength of the economy, despite challenges, and said that "some further policy firming may be needed to keep the risks to the attainment of both sustainable economic growth and price stability roughly in balance."

Although the statement was the most moderate it's been in months, it left the door open for more rate hikes, a factor that no doubt disappointed the most bullish stock investors, but wasn't particularly a shocker.

Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital, said that the changes to the statement were minimal, which was perhaps surprising, as a more pronounced change would have given new chairman Ben Bernanke maximum flexibility when he takes over in February.

“I think we're left with the presumption that they will probably raise by another quarter-percentage point in March,” Stanley said.

However, “the market had already priced in a 75 or 80 percent chance of a hike in March and the statement is consistent with that,” Stanley added. “So the reaction you're seeing in both stock and bond markets is muted.”

Treasury prices ended modestly higher, recovering some after falling on the Fed news. The yield on the 10-year note fell to 4.52 percent from 4.53 percent late Monday.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and the yen.

Investors also took in reports on consumer confidence and manufacturing in the Midwest area.

The January Consumer Confidence index jumped to 106.3, topping estimates and bouncing back from December's reading.

The January Chicago PMI, which measures manufacturing, fell to 58.5, below forecasts and last month's read. Nonetheless, anything over 50 signals expansion in the sector.

[Fivetears]

Glad Big Daddy Bush Sr. called his Saudi buddies and got that oil down 2 bucks. We're gonna need it since those drunk Oil Tanker Captains are STILL scaring everyone by running those sludge haulers aground in Alaska. They need to put a Hummingbird Fish Finder on those bigazzed tubs of crud! They're on sale at WALMART for $470.00. A 4-year old can find bottom with one of 'em. GEEZE! My Big Block Chevy is addicted to fossil fuel! It's so YUMMY!

[Fivetears]

I... Can't... Get... No! G... Fund... Action!
'Cause I'm I.
........'Cause I'm I.
................'Cause I'm I.
........................'Cause I'm I.
I CAN'T GET NO!

I'm 100% I Fund.

[Birchtree]

Fivetears,

Any body ever compare you to Audey Murphy - you hero of the I fund. What courage you display - hold that bunker. Keep the faith.

Dennis

[Fivetears]

Fivetears,

Any body ever compare you to Audey Murphy - you hero of the I fund. What courage you display - hold that bunker. Keep the faith.

Dennis

No Dennis; not Audey. He had class. I have on occasion been compared to the crazy redneck knucklehead in the midst of the mosh pit though, and the I-Fund is rapidly becoming one. I haven't figured out who's all headlining this chaos yet, but I'll stick around for the show. :cool:

[Fivetears]

14 cents a share down today; ouch.

[Fivetears]

Down 2.9% so far for February. Hope those weak minded iceholes stop throwin' rocks soon. They're messin' up our damn ball game. :mad:

On the other hand, lookin' at the I Fund from a four-wheeling perspective... I guess ya gotta let a little air out of the tires to run on the sand.

The terrain has changed a little.

100% in the I Fund; still.

[Rod]

What in Tar Nation! Ok. Throw in a little rain. Make it muddier. Deeper too! I got a snorkel. Don't make me drag it out of the tool box.
Still 100% I-BOG :mad: (rats-a-frackin-rotten-rusty-bear bottomed...)

You should see some relief today.:)

[mlk_man]

You should see some relief today.:)

I moved this post to its proper thread.

M_M

[Fivetears]

...Heads Up! The mud-za-gonna fly today.
...All four 39" TSL's are locked & spinning.
Just... get... on... top... of... this... soupy...
.......We got Rod & God on board, man!
...................WAHOO!

[Rod]

I moved this post to its proper thread.

M_M

oopps... I guess I accidentally replied to the account thread.

Sorry Mike!:o

[Fivetears]

(1.45%) for the I-Fund, and seven working days left make something positive happen.

100% I-Fund
alias - The I-BOG.

[Rod]

The Nikkei is down big time again. I'm afraid (I) may give up a lot of 16th gains.

It's just been really really choppy... UP, down, UP, down, UP, down...

[Fivetears]

It's just been really really choppy.
Yes, Sir.

[Fivetears]

The Texas Parks and Wildlife Department issued a final statement late today saying Vice President Cheney broke no law by shooting a lawyer instead of a quail.

The TPWD spokesperson noted in Texas, lawyers are not considered game creatures, and are thus not subject to seasonal limitations or bag limits. It was further noted that lawyer hunting is encouraged, as the state is overrun with the pesky creatures.

A San Antonio food critic said, contrary to rumor... lawyers do not taste like chicken, but rather like bovine dung which is a major component of their composition. :D

[Fivetears]

The WORST March I-Fund on TSP tap; 2001 (6.67)%.
The BEST March I-Fund on TSP tap; 2002 5.82%.

The March TSP I-Fund stats are 2 out of 5 times in positive territory since 2001.
Got Odds?
100% I-Fund. :)

[Gilligan]

The Texas Parks and Wildlife Department issued a final statement late today saying Vice President Cheney broke no law by shooting a lawyer instead of a quail.

The TPWD spokesperson noted in Texas, lawyers are not considered game creatures, and are thus not subject to seasonal limitations or bag limits. It was further noted that lawyer hunting is encouraged, as the state is overrun with the pesky creatures.

Do we need a lawyer tag on our hunting license?

[Fivetears]

Do we need a lawyer tag on our hunting license?
No Sir.
I do recommend the use of good old fashioned river rocks though, and save your shells and arrows for something eatable. :D

[Fivetears]

Got all four 39" TSL Swampers spinning, and chucking big ol' clods in second gear! The BBC is screaming out 4500 RPM and were finally atop the I-BOG slop; 0.16%. What an ugly run for February. Sure hope to make it to shore, COB today.
I need a frio cerveza, amigo's. :D

Hopefully, I can get in a couple adjustments, quick wash-down, and a better running start at the BOG for March. :cool:

100% I-Fund. :)

[Gilligan]

I need a frio cerveza, amigo's

You had a good run today, but the way you've been driving in February I believe you have had mucho frio cerveza already amigo!
(That’s “COLD BEER” for my fellow gringos.)

[Fivetears]

...but the way you've been driving in February I believe you have had mucho frio cerveza already amigo!
(That’s “COLD BEER” for my fellow gringos.)
¿quién yo? ¿Otra vez? I only had two. :D :confused: :D

[Birchtree]

Fivetears,

You might be surprised to know that the market run from 1/06 through 2/06 was the best since 1998. I'm still considerably ahead and all I've done is rest in my warm manure pile - bring me more money. It's still better to have four hoofs than four paws. The bull wants to see the market move higher, but at the same time, keep the majority from participating.

Your best trades will always tend to be the ones which makes your stomach churn. Check into NYSE TRIN values for oversold and overbought indicators. Good to see you have fortitude and courage as well.

Dennis

[Fivetears]

Good to see you have fortitude and courage as well.
Dennis
Thanks Dennis; just not too sure if I've got a lick of common sense though.

Looks like the truck found a pretty good size tree root while blasting out the back side BOG sideways. At least I made it to shore, suffering just a bent rear axle on exit @(-0.36) to close out February. :mad:
Good thing with the one-ton Corporate 14 bolt rear axle... they're full floaters and I got two spare's in the parts box. Give me 45 minutes... I'll be ready to rock and roll! :D
100% I-Fund. :)
Anyone seen my ice chest?

[Fivetears]

...and fasten your seatbelts, 'cause

WE'RE GOIN' IN HAMMER DOWN!!! :eek:
100% I-Fund.

[Fivetears]

March 4, 2006: 9:44 AM NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - CEOs today can receive a bigger payout for being fired than "an American worker earns in a lifetime of cleaning toilets." - Billionaire investor Warren Buffett.

Clean Restrooms
......2 Miles

[Fivetears]

Sure is soupy in this mud pond; just sitting here spinning wheels & throwing slop through the air. :D
If you're sittin' on the "G-Line" get out your plastic tarps & umbrella's.
100% I Fund

[Gilligan]

Hey Fivetears,
How the EC doing? Looks like you had a good day today, and the NIKKEI is already up for Friday!
Gilligan

[Fivetears]

EC's just doin' great, Little Buddy!
This I-Fund has been very unpredictable, to say the least. On the daily share price, I have us down -0.86% for March; after today’s close. I do have a good gut-feeling for the "I" this month. The stuff I read (and half comprehend) seems good. I like Ichiro's posts, links and outlooks; they look pretty fair too.
See: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2566&page=16
I'm comfortable & staying put. :)

[Gilligan]

Como estas Fivetears,
Did you watch the Spurs/Mavs game last night? Hows that G-fund chair? When are you going to crank up the EC and go back to the I-bog?

[Fivetears]

My daughter is very happy with the Mav's moving on. The Spurs had their chance... and blew it. I'm in the low 8% range for the year so far. I'm pretty inclined to remain reclined until October; we shall see. Always good to hear from you. :D
Como estas Fivetears,
Did you watch the Spurs/Mavs game last night? Hows that G-fund chair? When are you going to crank up the EC and go back to the I-bog?

[Fivetears]

Providing the IFT I initiated just before the 11:00 wire goes through COB today, I'm staged for a run through the pit @ 0900EST Friday. The pit of choice... the I.

[Fivetears]

One too many bombers and missle chuckers to enjoy an extended run through the pit this weekend. 100% G

[Gilligan]

That was a short run.

[Fivetears]

Yeah Little Buddy, I'm not too proud of it either. :embarrest:

[Fivetears]

Perhaps a 1% stab if the FV is kind.

[The_Technician]

Perhaps a 1% stab if the FV is kind.

Looks like you got a plus out of the last day FT......;) U sly.....market seems to have been selling off since 10 this morning.......

[Gilligan]

......;) U sly.....market seems to have been selling off since 10 this morning.......

Yeah, they must of heard that he pulled his EC out of the I-bog.

[Gilligan]

Yeah Little Buddy, I'm not too proud of it either. :embarrest:
Its nothing to be ashamed of, you picked up the G penny plus 14 cents from the I-fund. Your doing a lot better with your EC than I’m doing with the SS Minnow. Today was just your qualifying run.

[Fivetears]

Thanks Little Buddy & Tech.
Oh, and Carnac the Magnificent too.
All in all though, I really should have thought that jump in the pit through... a little more than I did. That was a bad line I picked. :embarrest:

Gilligan, let's drop a balanced and blue-printed rat block with a tunnel ram in the SS Minnow. What a ride that would be! :nuts:

[Fivetears]

Five-Hundredth Post!
XXxxxXXXXXXXXxxXXXTEAM TSP!

[tsptalk]

Woohoo! Congrats. I hope none of the moderators delete it. :)

[Spaf]

Na! we wouldn't send him back to a prior post!......:D
Congrats again 5T!......:nuts:
Keep up the good work!............:)..............Spaf

[Fivetears]

Back from Michigan vacation. What a beautiful state; so green don't cha know. :D

[Fivetears]

Gonna pull up anchor 21 - 25; may put back in 28 - 31. I stayed in the I all week... against my better judgement.

[Fivetears]

Watched Bloomberg this morning @ 5:00am. "Sell" was the one word I walked away with; so I did. It's not easy knee-boarding in choppy September waters my friends. :)

[Gilligan]

Hey someone just struck oil over there! Oh no, that’s just mud flying up in the air from the mud bog. Looks like Fivetears finally got enough rain to get back in the I-bog!

[Fivetears]

That we did. We're just treading the Bog; pretty soupy now.

[Fivetears]

With choppy trading ahead, I pulled back split to the G/F. This time of the year I like to play the S & I Fund charts, using the "3 or 4 down... buy"... "3 or 4 up... sell" rule, with a few buy and hold periods.

As we all yell in unison at the High School Football games here in Texas before the start of last quarter... Put 'em up!

FOUR! FOUR! FOUR! FOUR! :D :nuts:

[Show-me]

I'm take'n my bride to the homecoming tonight!;) :D

[Fivetears]

Gotta Love HS Football. :)
I'm take'n my bride to the homecoming tonight!;) :D

[nnuut]

Sorry I posted in your Account thread yesterday, but fixed it today. DuH!:o
Hey FT, You finally got those 33 inchers out of that hole! Dig out man!:D

[Fivetears]

...and a great deal of digging to be done. Who'da thought we'd see these numbers in the S & I over the last couple three weeks, much less the C? We'll see what Monday brings.

[Fivetears]

The I-Fund "unofficially" has me beat by 0.49% after the run-up early this month. I'll take Oct 16 - 20 off the table and see if the pull back happens on Monday; it is all over the top of high 30-day trend line. I'm not going to be satisfied until I get back on top of this mud pit. :)

[Fivetears]

Threw my pens and rulers in the trash. These markets are just not guess-able. :nuts:

[Fivetears]

Wait a minute... perhaps they are. :notrust:

[Fivetears]

Sitting in an 18.92% YTD return at COB today in the G-Fund :) ; very pleased with my luck so far, and will drive away from the mud pits until I see a marked pull-back :notrust: .

[Show-me]

Good job Fivetears, nice return! I am looking at a little G fund time myself.

[Birchtree]

Go ahead you two - hop on that lilly pad. That will give me a chance to play catch up. Just the break I need.

[Show-me]

Go ahead you two - hop on that lilly pad. That will give me a chance to play catch up. Just the break I need.

Hey,

Old salty dog like you needs a like break now and then.:laugh:

[Fivetears]

Ya have to admit... the markets have been on fire, and could use a little bucket of water thrown on 'em; like maybe a 3 - 4% bucket over the next two weeks. If not... then I'm back in the pit with everyone else. I just sense a very short term pull-back is coming; nothing technical to substantiate it though. :notrust: Just a gut feeling. Probabally gas. :embarrest:

[Fivetears]

Spinning a 19.02% YTD. The "G" lilly pad doesn't float well either. I'm mud logged. :o
Looks like the Dems (and America) may have got their wishes. Texas will keep Republican Governor Perry; Not much to chose from though locally.

I wonder how our markets will react in the AM. :notrust:

[Fivetears]

Spinning a 19.13% YTD. The "G" lilly pad finally decomposed while waiting for a market dip. Its either sink or swim in the I-Pit; the S is just so over-bought right now. This was probably not one of my wiser moves. But then again... very, very few of my moves have any technical wisdom. I'll be looking for a new lilly pad in the meantime.

[Fivetears]

Looks like there's very little love in the International Pit today. On the other hand, there's love in the house; Pelosi made it. A nice victory for hard working women in the US. I'm no Democrat... but I can appreciate seeing National equal opportunity in action.

[kar_crazy]

here is a elci I painted and sold on ebay not bad but lost some $$$$

[Fivetears]

Split personality in the auto world. Car? Truck? My plate says truck.
Let there be no mistake though... they're Chevrolet's "MULLET" :nuts:
Still love 'em. :D

[Fivetears]

Nothin' beats gettin' your clock cleaned in the I-Fund. My slow STO say's I'm an idiot for being in it; guts feel otherwise. :mad: :sick:

[Fivetears]

Unless the EFA (I-Fund) slow STO %K line bounces back up today to cross the %D trigger line, things are going to get real expensive to continue throwing mud in this pit. Wish I had read up on Stochastics years ago. Thanks for the links to pointers on the subject Showme. I don't completely understand them YET, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the correlation with the crossings matching up with the rise & fall of the fund.

[Fivetears]

A nice Stochastic bounce up today on the fast side; a definate intersection into the Red Zone on the SLO STO.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EFA&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p94843503486

I'm off work until December 2nd. :nuts: :D

[Fivetears]

From a historical standpoint regarding the I-Fund for the week after Turkeyday, the past three years go like this:
2003 - $12.15 up to $12.26
2004 - $14.41 up to $15.09
2005 - $16.90 up to $17.09
... every day up. :)
Wish I had access to 01 & 02 for y'all.

[tsptalk]

Good info, and with the dollar tanking again...

Since you are off until Dec 2, how about comparing those gains in the I fund to the C fund? :D My seasonality chart showed negative returns in the S&P the week after T-Day from 1950 to 2004. I'm wondering if C is down while I is up.

Thanks!

[Fivetears]

Very choppy for the C-Fund for the week after Turkeyday, the past three years go like this, Tom:
2003 - $11.19 $11.16 $11.14 $11.19 $11.11
2004 - $12.54 $12.49 $12.68 $12.67 $12.67
2005 - $13.62 $13.62 $13.54 $13.71 $13.71

[Fivetears]

With the USD seemingly having a bit of difficulty and volatility, and the EFA slow stochastic graph looking pretty decent, I'll stay in the I-pit. I think there's a bit more mud to be spun through the air.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EFA&p=D&st=2006-01-01&id=p07001365193

[Fivetears]

2 weeks in the I-Pit; 21.09% YTD COB today.
I need to figure a way to make up 1.43% to get back on top of it.
Ride another surge in the S if the dollar perks back up? It could happen. :)

Still 100% in the I-Pit,
but looking for an ugly airborne exit to solid land.
http://www.nanci.com/mudbog/wall.JPG

[fabijo]

I'm "predicting" at least a 1.7% increase for the C Fund in the next week and a half. But I have no idea what I'm talking about. I just stare at charts and assume there is sense to be found in them.


I need to figure a way to make up 1.43% to get back on top of it.

[Fivetears]

Me too my friend... me too. :)
Perhaps too much so.
Hey! I asked my wife for an "8 Ball" for Christmas this year.
Hope I've been good. :D
http://www.confusionroad.com/article_images/8ball_copy1.gif
I'm "predicting" at least a 1.7% increase for the C Fund in the next week and a half. But I have no idea what I'm talking about. I just stare at charts and assume there is sense to be found in them.

[Fivetears]

...and there's the the perfect spot; very ugly exit. I to F.

[Fivetears]

21.04% YTD to close out this week. :)

[Fivetears]

Spent the week paying all the rotten trolls wading in the F-Pit? I couldn't find a single one handing out those copper tokens. Greedy Bastages! :mad:

[Gilligan]

With the dollar trending higher the F fund will continue to receive a failing grade.

[Fivetears]

Yep. I'll be vacating this god-for-saken pit if things don't improve in the near future, Little Buddy.

[Fivetears]

Finished last week at 20.43%YTD; Hope the trolls are happy.

[mlk_man]

I feel your pain FT. I stayed in one more day because I caught one and am holding it hostage............;)

[Fivetears]

http://www.young-training.de/upload/de/kids/Jacob/ugly.jpg
Does it look like this one? If so... I gotta bat; can I help?
I feel your pain FT. I stayed in one more day because I caught one and am holding it hostage............;)

[mlk_man]

You might wanna use that bat on "its" parents!!! :p

[Fivetears]

Well... here I sit on a day of annual leave. I'm still painting my 2 story home (Behr Exterior Premium Plus with Nano Guard technology - $148.00 per 5 Gal) and it's going slow, but very well. Roll and Brush; no spray. This is perhaps the best exterior paint I've ever applied; easy to use, goes on great, cleans up easy! Those contract painters can KMA; $1000 labor to paint my home... NOT EVEN! I feel sorry for those who have to pay these thiefs.

I made a hare brained jump to the S-Pit for today on gut feeling. Hope those 3 witches are kind this afternoon, or else I'm gonna ask S&S to turn her monkeys loose on them. The bigger question I have is how do I position myself for Monday? Man I need that magic 8 ball. 20 minutes to decide...

[Fivetears]

The I-Pit it will be

[Fivetears]

http://www.markbaker.ca/images/missed.gif
What a sharp move to the S-Pit for Fridays action. :embarrest:
Win some... loose some. Oh well.
Finished the week out at 21.97% YTD.

[Fivetears]

An investment misque; very minor IMHO. Perhaps this week will be a little more profitable. Finished the last week out at 21.70% YTD. While considered risky by some (being invested in internationals over this Christmas with the current European terrorism fears & threats on the table) I feel I'm in a decent position to get a good run into the new year. There sure are alot of folks shopping here in San Antonio. The parking lots are all jamed full; even in the pouring rain.

I feel pretty good, and humble being parked in the I-Pit going into the New Year. Too all... Merry Christmas. :D

[Fivetears]

I took this quote from a posted MSNBC interview with Warren Buffet on 20 March 2006:
"I don't expect any enormous returns at all, either for Berkshire or the market; Overall, 6 to 8 percent is what I think people can expect."
http://72.14.209.104/search?q=cache:bfD9czqr1xgJ:ori.msnbc.msn.com/id/11930072/from/RL.2/+%226+to+8+percent+is+what+I+think+people%22&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=4

I think we all did pretty damn good this year.

[airlift]

Fivetears,
Perhaps we did better proportionately because as smaller investors we have more fexibility to move our allocations, and to adust quicker by using technical analysis in order to react faster than he can. Big mutual funds and/or large investors have a harder time adjusting and managing the millions of dollars they command. Merry Christmas!:)


I took this quote from a posted MSNBC interview with Warren Buffet on 20 March 2006:
"I don't expect any enormous returns at all, either for Berkshire or the market; Overall, 6 to 8 percent is what I think people can expect."
http://72.14.209.104/search?q=cache:bfD9czqr1xgJ:ori.msnbc.msn.com/id/11930072/from/RL.2/+%226+to+8+percent+is+what+I+think+people%22&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=4

I think we all did pretty damn good this year.

[Fivetears]

I hadn't thought of it that way before. I figured they (the Warren Buffet rich investor types) had the advantage, being they could react and move by the daily trading day second. I've always felt we've had the disadvantage working under our trading rules. For our members to be pulling 20%+ rabbits out of the hat... I just find that impressive, compared to what Mr. Buffet thought was possible for the market year. Even our BAH'ers did very well. It was a good year indeed. To beat one of the richest investors odds placed before us back in March... just gives me a warm fuzzy feeling. We did well. :)
Fivetears,
Perhaps we did better proportionately because as smaller investors we have more fexibility to move our allocations, and to adust quicker by using technical analysis in order to react faster than he can. Big mutual funds and/or large investors have a harder time adjusting and managing the millions of dollars they command. Merry Christmas!:)

[FUTURESTRADER]

I hadn't thought of it that way before. I figured they (the Warren Buffet rich investor types) had the advantage, being they could react and move by the daily trading day second. I've always felt we've had the disadvantage working under our trading rules. For our members to be pulling 20%+ rabbits out of the hat... I just find that impressive, compared to what Mr. Buffet thought was possible for the market year. Even our BAH'ers did very well. It was a good year indeed. To beat one of the richest investors odds placed before us back in March... just gives me a warm fuzzy feeling. We did well. :)

yep, we did well beating the S&P 500, better still beating L2040...though I must point out Mr. Buffet's funds (BRK.A) and (BRK.B) did 23.4% and 24.0% respectively

[Fivetears]

This makes it even better. To nearly touch the return rate performance level of the "Warren Buffet" sponsored Berkshire Hathaway investment funds is quite an achievement. No one can deny Fundsurfer did one heck of a job this year. I'd also be willing to bet Berkshire Hathaway has some serious computer programs making nearly all the decisions too. Again... what an achievement.
yep, we did well beating the S&P 500, better still beating L2040...though I must point out Mr. Buffet's funds (BRK.A) and (BRK.B) did 23.4% and 24.0% respectively

[Fivetears]

A falling (preferably) or flat dollar for the next two days could set the stage for that I Fund push into 2007; 2 - 3% was all I was looking for.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=69109&postcount=4553

[Fivetears]

So much for that push.

Heading for the G-Pit box to chase the copper token to start the New Year off. Hanging a dictator, the death & national mourning of a former US President, new lawmakers heading to the plate, and a seemingly flaky market wanting and begging for a correction... there will be no bang for my account to start the year off.

As of COB Thursday, I'm comfortably seated in my 2006 22.75% return YTD pile of cash. Hope my one day lateral stunt pass through the "F" to get to the G-Pit today was worth my key-punch effort.

Happy New Year All; see ya on the other side. :)

http://static.flickr.com/22/24502292_1c63f41884_m.jpg

[kar_crazy]

good luck next year FT try not to stall out in the mud pit , but it looks fun do you break as many parts as me in drag racing

[Fivetears]

The drive train is 100% invested in the best 1970's 1 ton GM iron money can buy. Mud is a bit more forgiving than pavement too. :)

[kar_crazy]

do you ever get close to oklahoma where is the closes mud pit? we use to have some in alex but have been closed i think for at least the last year

[Fivetears]

Just returned from Tulsa last night; flew out SWA to see a friend get married. The closest mud pits in San Antonio are where ever track housing roads are being cut in; after it rains. :nuts: Then there's the hill country area and any place not fenced in. :D

Hey... looks like Tom added a spell checker.

[Fivetears]

Well, 35 moves to pull a 22.75% final return for 2006 works just fine for me.
Let the New Talley Game begin with a G-Penny Day . :)
Maybe an I-Pit move for the Thursday action. :notrust: We'll see.
Happy New Year to all and good luck. :)

[Fivetears]

Decided on the Big 3 Pits; C.S.I./20.30.50.
I'm not ruling out some short term solid upward mobility from the US Markets. The C & S Pits are pretty shallow, trading at the bottom of a deep upward channel. I'm willing to make a single pass through 'em. :nuts:
http://www.fs.fed.us/r6/willamette/recreation/ohv/images/mudding-wet-roads-tracks.jpg http://www.fs.fed.us/r6/willamette/recreation/ohv/images/mudding-wet-roads-area.jpg

[Fivetears]

Number 131 for week one. :D
http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/tally_010507.pdf

[WIND_HUNTER]

Number 131 for week one. :D
http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/tally_010507.pdf

Yesterdays earnings should have moved you up some. Where you been, stuck in the mud?LOL :D

[Fivetears]

...and lovin' it! :D
Yesterdays earnings should have moved you up some. Where you been, stuck in the mud?LOL :D

[Fivetears]

Number 13 for week two. :)
That first week pulled me under pretty deep.
http://www.yukonweb.com/community/dawson/klondike_sun/aug29-03.htmld/photo.jpg
http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/tally_011207.pdf

[Fivetears]

Went to the G-Fund to chase the "rare" Monday penny again. It's comforting to know when you come out of a weekend, there will be no surprises negatively affecting your account. I also hope that terrorist (eh...) peace-loving Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr doesn't throw a monkey wrench in the world market machine over the weekend. He's pretty upset one of his gophers is caught in a trap. :notrust:

[Birchtree]

Somebody should shoot that rag right off his head - see if he commisserates with Allah on that one.

[Fivetears]

Man, you always got me looking at the dictionary cyphering your posts. :D
Kinda like cossword puzzles. :D
Commiserate - Verb - to feel or express sympathy or compassion
sympathise, sympathize
compassionate, condole with, feel for, pity, sympathize with - share the suffering of
condole - express one's sympathetic grief, on the occasion of someone's death; "You must condole the widow"


Somebody should shoot that rag right off his head - see if he commisserates with Allah on that one.

[Birchtree]

Did you climb up the back side of the mountain to be #3 - the pressure is on now. Everyone in the briar patch will be watching you - keep'em attentive.

[fabijo]

Nice run! from 131 to 3 in just a couple weeks! Can we start betting on these results like the horse track?

[Fivetears]

LOL :nuts:
http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/tally_011907.pdf

Did you climb up the back side of the mountain to be #3 - the pressure is on now. Everyone in the briar patch will be watching you - keep'em attentive.

Nice run! from 131 to 3 in just a couple weeks! Can we start betting on these results like the horse track?

[WIND_HUNTER]

Nice run! from 131 to 3 in just a couple weeks! Can we start betting on these results like the horse track?

Yeah maybe a little side action. Hellava come back Fivetears:D

[Fivetears]

It just means there's nowhere else to go but...

http://files.myopera.com/Mathilda%20Tómasdóttir/albums/96632/thumbs/mud_jumping_07.jpg_thumb.jpg

[350zCommTech]

It just means there's nowhere else to go but...

http://files.myopera.com/Mathilda%20T%C3%B3masd%C3%B3ttir/albums/96632/thumbs/mud_jumping_07.jpg_thumb.jpg

You must have two big bowling balls!!!:D

[Fivetears]

Naugh, just acting really stupid; just like the markets have been acting lately.
What the heck! Easy come...

[Fivetears]

...easy come! :nuts:
See what I mean. It's Just Stupid.
Back to the G-Chair to watch again.
http://static.flickr.com/21/32032978_6605f477da_m.jpg

[350zCommTech]

...easy come! :nuts:
See what I mean. It's Just Stupid.
Back to the G-Chair to watch again.


Hey, if it pays, I can be stupid too.:D

Congrats!

[Fivetears]

On occasion it does.
http://forum.bikemag.hu/images/smilies_2/stupid.gif
Hey, if it pays, I can be stupid too.:D

Congrats!

[Fivetears]

...and on occasion it doesn't. See what playing games with the market can get ya? A missed opportunity. :nuts: :D

[Fivetears]

That's gonna leave a mark.
http://planete.qc.ca/quisuisje/images/Chris_Farley.jpg
So much for profit taking. :(

[Fivetears]

Two reports are due out tomorrow on the economic homefront; Durable Goods Orders & New Home Sales for the month of December. DG is forecasted at 7% while the USM expects 3.5%. That's the good news. NHS on the other hand is forcasted at 1055K while the USM expects 1050K. Up only 5K; no big party there. These two reports should be on the table well before the TSP IFT cut-off time.
Good luck all.
Holding 100% I.

[Birchtree]

The sign says slippery slope when wet. You'll need extra traction to hang tough.

[Foghorn]

Two reports are due out tomorrow on the economic homefront; Durable Goods Orders & New Home Sales for the month of December. DG is forecasted at 7% while the USM expects 3.5%. That's the good news. NHS on the other hand is forcasted at 1055K while the USM expects 1050K. Up only 5K; no big party there. These two reports should be on the table well before the TSP IFT cut-off time.
Good luck all.
Holding 100% I.


Fivetears: Will have the time and access to list a quick synopsis of these reports tomorrow morning? I'd appreciate it if you did. I don't always have time nor enough computer access at work to review reports. When I get the time I post my moves and that's all I get.
Foghorn

[Fivetears]

Will do Foghorn. :)
The way I see it, we got a huge gift today, in that our drop (Percentage Wise) was only 0.99%. Things looked real ugly on the EAFE as everyone has surely learned by now. The S lost 1.06% and the C lost 1.15%.
Fivetears: Will have the time and access to list a quick synopsis of these reports tomorrow morning? I'd appreciate it if you did. I don't always have time nor enough computer access at work to review reports. When I get the time I post my moves and that's all I get.
Foghorn

Percentage's drive me. My goal this year is to beat the I fund, and I am presently doing that by 1.28%. As long as I stay put, I win my personal market battle. Birch, I missed the sign of today's pull-back, but I have gained some knowledge in the process. Riding and working these whipsaw markets isn't easy.
The sign says slippery slope when wet. You'll need extra traction to hang tough.

For some odd reason, I feel it's important to say, folks far from retirement should not let account dollar figures and fund share prices influence their decision making process's involving IFT's. On a personal note, I used to let them. But when I found myself becoming angry about loosing $1,000+ bucks on a bad IFT choice... I had to change my way of looking at things. Again... percentage's now drive me; I say let them drive you. I want 24% (or better) for 2007.

[Spaf]

5T,

IMHO, there wasen't a "sign". Maybe, a lack of a sign! The breakout had not established a trend (a brief pull-back and an advance) so a bull trap was a possibility. It happens! One thing that can mitigate a trap is lowering the risk and not playing 100% (RE: G-fund ointment).
Ideally, one would wait till the trend is established. However, in reality once it gets established it quickly becomes over-bought.......:suspicious:
A good conundrum!........:confused:
Maybe the process should be a mix of BAH and Bunny Hopping!......:D ......Nnuut has the BH down pretty good!

Regards, and be careful!............:) ............Spaf



I missed the sign of today's pull-back, but I have gained some knowledge in the process. Riding and working these whipsaw markets isn't easy.

[Fivetears]

Yessiree Mr. Spaf. I agree on both of your observations. :)
Maybe the process should be a mix of BAH and Bunny Hopping!......:D ......Nnuut has the BH down pretty good!
Regards, and be careful!............:) ............Spaf

[Fivetears]

Here ya go Foghorn and anyone else pressed for time.

Durable Goods Orders
Actual 3.1%
Consensus 3.0%
Consensus Range 1.1% to 8.7%
Previous 1.9 %
Manufacturing is showing signs of strengthening with the latest report on durables orders. The rebound was led by the transportation component but was still healthy in other components. Overall, today's report shows a rebound in manufacturing. Shipments have been strong and will likely show up in exports and in consumer spending as shipments of nondefense capital goods have been lagging new orders since much of that is for aircraft. Even the auto sector is showing improvement. Today's numbers are going to put upward pressure on interest rates and support the dollar. Equities have been fickle on whether good news is good news or bad news and the reaction could go either way.

New Home Sales
Actual 1,120,000
Consensus 1,050,000
Consensus Range 1,020,000 to 1,100,000
Previous 1,047,000
There's more good news from the housing sector. New home sales rose 4.8 percent in December to a higher-than-expected annual rate of 1.120 million. Though housing supply is still high and indications of strengthening sales are still tentative, more and more signs are pointing to stabilization in the sector in what would be a big success for the Federal Reserve and its efforts to guide the economy on a soft landing. Treasuries eased and the dollar firmed in initial reaction to the data. A further decline in supply would be good for new construction but even holding steady would likely be seen as a positive given the significant decline in November.
http://fidweek.econoday.com/reports/US/EN/New_York/new_home_sales/year/2007/yearly/01/index.html


Fivetears: Will have the time and access to list a quick synopsis of these reports tomorrow morning? I'd appreciate it if you did. I don't always have time nor enough computer access at work to review reports. When I get the time I post my moves and that's all I get.
Foghorn
Two reports are due out tomorrow on the economic homefront; Durable Goods Orders & New Home Sales for the month of December. DG is forecasted at 7% while the USM expects 3.5%. That's the good news. NHS on the other hand is forcasted at 1055K while the USM expects 1050K. Up only 5K; no big party there. These two reports should be on the table well before the TSP IFT cut-off time.
Good luck all.
Holding 100% I.

[Foghorn]

Thank you much FiveTears. I just got on. From the looks of it, I'm going to hold my position in stocks.
I really appreciate this.

[quote=Fivetears;74002]Here ya go Foghorn and anyone else pressed for time.

Durable Goods Orders
Actual 3.1%
Consensus 3.0%
Consensus Range 1.1% to 8.7%
New Home Sales
Actual 1,120,000
Consensus 1,050,000
Consensus Range 1,020,000 to 1,100,000
Previous 1,047,000

[Fivetears]

Not a problem Foghorn. You are welcome. :)
I held my vested positions on all fronts too.
Thank you much FiveTears. I just got on. From the looks of it, I'm going to hold my position in stocks.
I really appreciate this.

[Fivetears]

Lost 1.32% for the week; Still within my 2.00% stop.
Still waiting for the Rokid Talley to see how far up I need to climb again. :)
I'll right this thing and get 'er going. :nuts:
http://www.truckworld.com/shows-events/03-Mountain_Mud/MUD_03_149.jpg
Looks like I rolled down to 12th.
http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/tally_012607.pdf

[kar_crazy]

good job F T even with a good (Bad) hit you are still crawling out of mud pit with ease, no wintch to pull you keep on trucking, go elci:D :D :D :cool:

[Fivetears]

I think it'll be a bit harder to get back the 1.3% this time of year CC. February just isn't my favorite month for the Pits.

[Fivetears]

Number 11 for week six. :)
http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/tally_020207.pdf
Well, at least it's sitting upright on all fours.
http://www.sharetrails.org/releases/4wd/images/hollister_slot_web.jpg
The C, S, & I funds are all busted through the top charting channels indicating a possible overbought condition.
I may stay put in the G for now. Not sure yet. :suspicious:

ALSO:
Feb 6, 1:30 PM ET : Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks about the distribution of economic well-being to the Greater Omaha Chamber of Commerce.

Feb 6, 10:00 AM ET : Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to tesify on the FY 2008 budget to the House Ways & Means Committee.

Feb 6, 1:00 PM ET : Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Michael Moskow (FOMC voting member) to speak at a jobs, housing and transportation planning summit.

Feb 6, 2:45 PM ET : Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to testify to Senate Finance Committee on the Bush administration's FY 2008 budget.

Feb 6, 3:30 PM ET : San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen to speak at a conference on the Asian Financial Crisis Revisited.

[mayday]

I'm with ya on the lilly pad Fivetears. I hate it but its safe.

[Fivetears]

I've had you on my watch list for some time, Mayday.
Ya need to get back up here. And bring a winch with you. :nuts:
The hill is a real MF'r
http://www.truckworld.com/Shows-Events/02-Mountain_Mud/Mud2002-186.JPG
It's gonna be a tough climb from 122
I'm with ya on the lilly pad Fivetears. I hate it but its safe.

[Fivetears]

Note to self:
TSP Funds loose value about 2/3rds of the time, on days of account contribution; Thursdays, day before paydays.
Just another personal conspiracy theory. :suspicious:

[nnuut]

Make account contributions to the "G" and buy on a dip!!!!:D

[jayhawker]

Note to self:
TSP Funds loose value about 2/3rds of the time, on days of account contribution; Thursdays, day before paydays.
Just another personal conspiracy theory. :suspicious:

Interesting... my contributions (and matching) are posted to my account after business on Tuesdays - three days before payday.

j

[mayday]

I've had you on my watch list for some time, Mayday.
Ya need to get back up here. And bring a winch with you. :nuts:
The hill is a real MF'r
http://www.truckworld.com/Shows-Events/02-Mountain_Mud/Mud2002-186.JPG
It's gonna be a tough climb from 122

I think I've done perty good considering I was dead last first week in Jan. When your last there is only one direction to go. My mud is gonna be flying.

[Fivetears]

Hmmm. That would work. I've always matched everything up with my chosen IFT Fund. Thanks Norman. That would sure simplify matters at this stage of the game. All of a sudden...I feel pretty stupid now. :blink: :embarrest:
Make account contributions to the "G" and buy on a dip!!!!:D

[Fivetears]

I flagged this in my outlook a couple weeks ago for a heads up:

Bernanke to testify before Congress February 14th & 15th, 10am EST
This is his twice-a-year report to lawmakers on the monetary policy and involves speaking for one day before a Senate committee, and another day in front of a House of Reps committee.

This time there is a twist. House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank plans an extra day of hearings to get additional input from outside experts on Bernanke's testimony and remarks. This could involve questions and input from economists and and other labor experts too. :suspicious:

This may be affecting this weeks seemingly lack-luster market performance. Keep a good grip on your cash stash.

Still in the G.

[nnuut]

Hmmm. That would work. I've always matched everything up with my chosen IFT Fund. Thanks Norman. That would sure simplify matters at this stage of the game. All of a sudden...I feel pretty stupid now. :blink: :embarrest:
DCA the smart way.:D

[Fivetears]

Number 13 for week 12; 3.37% YTD. :)
http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/tally_020907.pdf
I suppose one can expect to drop a couple spots while parked in the G. It's nice to see so many doing so well this year. It's a close battle and there's a couple new High Rollers in the Top 5.

[Warrenlm]

You were in the G until moving to the S at noon Monday for Tuesday's action. And then you moved back to the G for Wednesday. Would you share what helped you to decide to make the one day move? Thanks.

[Birchtree]

I suspect only cold muddy feet.

[Fivetears]

Post #148 above, market whipsawing, working the whipsaw, comfortable with a .83% one-day gain and a general discomfort/distrust in the current TSP market upper channels. Tom's latest market comments and charts are very important and influential as well.
Good luck this week. :)
You were in the G until moving to the S at noon Monday for Tuesday's action. And then you moved back to the G for Wednesday. Would you share what helped you to decide to make the one day move? Thanks.

[Fivetears]

In a nutshell... you're correct Dennis.
Your C-Fund had a great day too.
I suspect only cold muddy feet.

[Fivetears]

Are we having any fun yet? I hope Wall Street and the rest of the world has had enough of this damn non-sense.

It sure is suspect how Alan Green"shaft" has popped up from the bottom of the wood pile to kick this whole thing off. How much money did he make on this little "correction" he's initiated? The prick, and all his buddy pricks probably "market bet" on all this. The SEC (or some "market-governing" body) should investigate his class act.

I know Viking... It's a CONSPIRACY. :nuts:
Oh well... I'm back to zero.
In the I...
Poked in the eye.

Have a good weekend all. :)

[Birchtree]

Don't worry my little lamb chop it will be over soon. This whole endeavor should be regarded as a blessing which will allow further DCAs at lower prices and greater share purchases. Think long term, be right and sit tight. Snort.

[Fivetears]

The only problem I have with DCA is the fact my paycheck will only purchase 12 lousy shares of I-Fund (at the going price) at a time. Sitting tight is very frustrating while loosing thousands every other day. I'm out the door (retired) in 11 years. The 10 years I did active duty did nothing for my civil service retirement as it relates to TSP. The way I see it, I've got ten years to turn 6 figures into 7. I just don't see DCA working for me.

What in the hell happened to that Bull Run, Dennis? Is it over? What do you see for the year end result? If this market seizure is going to be a repeat of what happened 8 May thru 12 June last year... I see your point.

For those who missed last year...
The I fund share price fell from $20.95 to $17.73 ($3.72) in just 35 days, and still managed to put up a 26.32% YTD return. Even the best TSP Talk investor Fundsurfer never caught it while posting 87 IFT's; and this guy really knows investing and market timing.

The above further being put in perspective... the I-Fund has only dropped from $23.41 to $22.06 ($1.35) so far.

I'm not staying for DCA, Dennis. I just see the current situation, and relevant market and economic news, as not being that bad to warrant an exodus.

Thanks for letting me publicly vent & bend your mind, Birch (and anyone else viewing).

Brian

Don't worry my little lamb chop it will be over soon. This whole endeavor should be regarded as a blessing which will allow further DCAs at lower prices and greater share purchases. Think long term, be right and sit tight. Snort.

[Birchtree]

Track some of the Robo offerings this evening - he is on fire.

I wish the military would start offering a defined benefit plan to members as a recruitment incentive so that after ten years an individual walks away with something in their pocket for retirement. Vesting should be immediate and TSP would be an excellent avenue since the logistics are in place.

[Fivetears]

Back in the late 80's it was called an "Early Out." They paid some active duty folks to take a walk; discharge honorably. They actually offered / paid a severance package. I missed out on this offering.

Track some of the Robo offerings this evening - he is on fire.

I wish the military would start offering a defined benefit plan to members as a recruitment incentive so that after ten years an individual walks away with something in their pocket for retirement. Vesting should be immediate and TSP would be an excellent avenue since the logistics are in place.

[kar_crazy]

kinda hard to get out of mud pit now ,i am in deep with you ,let her ridemight need a little nos:rolleyes:

[Fivetears]

At least I'm still beating the I-Fund this year! :nuts:

[Fivetears]

Naugh... you can still get out and wade to shore any time.
It's just that when you do, Robert Goulet will call Wall Street and screw you out of a 3% gain. :nuts:

kinda hard to get out of mud pit now ,i am in deep with you ,let her ridemight need a little nos:rolleyes:

[kar_crazy]

good job i am stuck way on bottom of pit:D :embarrest: :sick:

[Birchtree]

Sometimes you have to take one on the chin to really get an appreciation of your situation. Be right and sit tight and try to stay creative.

[Fivetears]

This is either going to be a very expensive lesson, or the confirmation of an investment observation previously discussed.
$23.41 to $21.65 = $1.76 loss to date in the I-Fund
Down 7.52% since Feb 26th.
A pretty violent ride, Birch. There has got to be a ton of money on the sidelines right now.

[nnuut]

FT, man,,,, you are right! Keep out of the deep MUD!:D Or is it MUDD?

[Birchtree]

And the C fund is down $0.92 which is a good hair cut to the tune of $32K. I gave up $34K last year and that was just temporary - and this is also. Got my last DCA at $15.40 and spent my insurance policy today on the I fund at $21.65 - I was programmed to be satisfied to get $21.75. From the long term perspective these are gorgeous buying opportunities - Wish I could dump another $100,000 in right now. If I can get the next 6 buys under $16.00 I'll be real happy - but since when does the market want to make me happy.

[nnuut]

Hey Birch, what the heck are you talking about? You interrupted my train of thought! Keep it up I'll edit this stuff, try me? I like you,,,,,, But!:nuts:

[Fivetears]

It's MUDD if I'm in trouble. :nuts:
FT, man,,,, you are right! Keep out of the deep MUD!:D Or is it MUDD?

[Fivetears]

100% G-Fund COB today. I'm back in the I-Pit when the mud turns deep red. I'm back in positive territory, and will certainly go back under again after I get some more distance atop this fund. I will beat it this year come hell or high water.

[fabijo]

I will beat it this year come hell or high water.

cheers! Here's to hoping all of us on the board beat it!

[Fivetears]

Just put as much distance between yourself and it, and then do a belly flop into the parted Red Sea of sidelined market cash. It is going to flow back in together like nobodies business. Ride the I-Train until December 31 or the next YCT cow chip throwing contest. If I ever figure out the magic formula for dodging the week of the next YTC roll-over... :suspicious:
cheers! Here's to hoping all of us on the board beat it!

[Fivetears]

From the look of the evening futures, my pull back may have been a day early. USM's look pretty good. Asian OSM's faired well. EURO OSM's haven’t fired up yet. Good luck to those still on the Bull for tomorrow. :)

[kar_crazy]

here is you another elci just add money:D

[Fivetears]

That picture is how my account feels right now.
here is you another elci just add money:D

[kar_crazy]

mine is worse but i aint sceared yet i think :nuts: a few good days hopefully back on the + side for me:D

[kar_crazy]

i might jump back in the snake pit tomorrow still in the minus pit like to see a little + side this week but we have all year just hate to idle very long of course this probably why i am setting in the - for now:D lets smoke some rubber an sling some mud

[Fivetears]

The guy's and gal's I watch are side-lined too; probably for good reason. the last time I got an itchy key finger I lost 4%. Something is up. :suspicious:

[kar_crazy]

thanks F T it is hard not to jump and play but as you know red lights dont pay in drag racing either i hate to jump the gun :( , soon will be good, if i can wait going G F good luck:cool: i am glad to see some making gains ,just not my week never hurts to bad to wait, plenty of time to make some gains this year

[kar_crazy]

welcome back F T hope your onto something G L :cool:

[Fivetears]

Probably not, judging by the rest of the herd. Oh well. :o
welcome back F T hope your onto something G L :cool:

[kar_crazy]

back out of mud pit slinging it everywhere:D G L the ole elci has been roaring to go:cool:

[Fivetears]

It's maddening watching these markets; from the sidelines. I need trading software.

[kar_crazy]

It's maddening watching these markets; from the sidelines. I need trading software.
been quiet F T still roasting the 42s :blink:

[Fivetears]

Going to college 4 hours every other night during the work week. I've had little time for much of anything else since March. :(
been quiet F T still roasting the 42s :blink:

[kar_crazy]

watz up F T be down your way this weekend well kinda across the border Ennis Txs glad to see your still in here trying to make a dollar me shoot i am trying to hold onto a $:D G L keep her up right

[Fivetears]

Thanks CC. I'm amazed at the difference in my trading ability on night shift -vs- day shift; virtually night & day difference. Taking a short break from school; college algebra finally did me in. Got a "B." Knocked out Math 0302, 0303, 1314, History 1301, and Speech 1311 since March 19th. Now I've actually got time to watch and soak in the market action. College, Full-time Job, and active trading just don't work well together for me. Have a good day in Ennis this weekend. :)

[kar_crazy]

well i lost a little monday shoot you will probably pass me soon:blink: i hope john force does ok they said it broke both legs and his wrist G L F T

[kar_crazy]

well sooners had there a$$ kicked :mad:, r u a long horn fan there F T could be a good game this year as always ,G L still playing C&S

[Fivetears]

It's tough for me, as I have family on both sides of the state line. I do enjoy the games. OU, OSU, UT, A&M.

I'm a bit gun-shy on this coming week.

[Fivetears]

Stick a fork in me I'm done.
Subscribed to Ebb.
This was fun.

[Fivetears]

LOST
One huge piece of my a$$.

WHEN?
Last week.

WHERE?
Diversified in US Markets.

IF FOUND
Please return to
Fivetears TSP Account.

Thanks.
:(

[merlin]

I feel your pain.

[merlin]

http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/4/4_14_6.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZNfox000) Top return in September and big loser in October. http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/36/36_1_4.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZNfox000)

[Fivetears]

I wonder if there's a "record" for the number of meaningful market corrections in a year? From the looks of things, I'm not going to have much luck finding that missing piece this week either.

LOST
One huge piece of my a$$.

WHEN?
Last week.

WHERE?
Diversified in US Markets.

IF FOUND
Please return to
Fivetears TSP Account.

Thanks.
:(

[Fivetears]

Toms October S&P Seasonality Chart had it called? Darn it.

http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/4/4_14_6.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZNfox000) Top return in September and big loser in October. http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/36/36_1_4.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZNfox000)

[kar_crazy]

watz up F T i have been trying to enter pinks all out in San Antonio just did not know exactually how to pre register just found out today sold out :mad:going to look @ ole mizou gateway and see if we can make it to there show i cant just go and watch have to take ole hot rod and at least try to make the show , hows the ole elci going hope she's still hanging tuff:D

[kar_crazy]

hey F T you ever check your account miss seeing the old elci man:D

[Fivetears]

Been workin 12hr shifts 8 days straight. Bustin my @$$ other than that lately. Very tired. Need time off.

[kar_crazy]

Been workin 12hr shifts 8 days straight. Bustin my @$$ other than that lately. Very tired. Need time off.
sounds like you need a mud pit take the elci for a mud bath great stress relief:)

[nnuut]

Been workin 12hr shifts 8 days straight. Bustin my @$$ other than that lately. Very tired. Need time off.
Hey FT, you need to slow down and smell th -----ah hell just drink a few cold ones!!:D
Norman

[Guest2]

I've been shedding a few Fivetears since you've been working so much.
Pacing yourself like Karcrazy's race car isn't always easy. Just be careful !
:embarrest:

[Fivetears]

EPHEDRA to Miller Lite to EPHEDRA to Miller Lite. 2 maybe three more days of this. :nuts: :blink: :sick:
Thanks Y'all.
PS: Tom... we need a sleeper smiley. :laugh:

[Fivetears]

Did anyone else get screwed on an IFT yesterday? I put mine in to the "G" at 10:48 CST yesterday (posted on the tracker), and the kind folks at TSP just informed me over the phone my transaction will take 2 days to complete. They also said if I had any complaints, to fax the Board 1-866-817-5023.
THIS IS B.S!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :mad:
S.O.A.B!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :mad:
G.D.I!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:mad:
MF'rs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:mad:

[Elgallo]

Just one more reason to, as soon as one possibly can, get your funds out from under the control of the FRTIB!!! VOTE with your feet if you know what I mean!

This whole FERS retirement/TSP thing is beginnig to look like a set up. All the ineptitude and unecessary constraint placed on us stinks of to high heaven if you ask me!

[youngMoney]

Did anyone else get screwed on an IFT yesterday? I put mine in to the "G" at 10:48 CST yesterday (posted on the tracker), and the kind folks at TSP just informed me over the phone my transaction will take 2 days to complete. They also said if I had any complaints, to fax the Board 1-866-817-5023.
THIS IS B.S!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
S.O.A.B!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
G.D.I!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MF'rs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Wow!! That sucks. I put mine in about an hour before yours (if I remember correctly) and it worked just fine.

I've read on the TSP.gov site that the IFTs might take 2 business days to complete. But I don't remember one time it took that long. :notrust: That sucks

[Fivetears]

Does anyone have a sample FTRIB letter template to fax that I can borrow?

[luv2read]

Did anyone else get screwed on an IFT yesterday? I put mine in to the "G" at 10:48 CST yesterday (posted on the tracker), and the kind folks at TSP just informed me over the phone my transaction will take 2 days to complete. They also said if I had any complaints, to fax the Board 1-866-817-5023.
THIS IS B.S!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :mad:
S.O.A.B!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :mad:
G.D.I!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:mad:
MF'rs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:mad:
FiveTears, I'm curious about what fund/s you moved FROM? If the I Fund was involved it's even more suspect that your transaction was delayed...please feel free to PM me if you don't care to post here.

[Frixxxx]

FiveTears, I'm curious about what fund/s you moved FROM? If the I Fund was involved it's even more suspect that your transaction was delayed...please feel free to PM me if you don't care to post here.
I don't think so L2R, I moved out of the I yesterday at 11:49AM east coast time on both my accounts and they were completed.:suspicious:

I would be upset too 5~tears!

[Fivetears]

100%C to 100%G
FiveTears, I'm curious about what fund/s you moved FROM? If the I Fund was involved it's even more suspect that your transaction was delayed...please feel free to PM me if you don't care to post here.

[Fivetears]

Here's my letter. Still need a header template.

To whom it may concern, I initiated an IFT on September 8, 2008 at 10:48 Central Standard Time, to the sum of 100% of my account balance to the G Fund. I did not receive the normal confirmation in my home email on this transaction. I contacted your office and spoke with Amanda Baker, who said she was unable to validate the time I initiated this electronic transaction. She said I would need to FAX my complaint to the FTRIB.

I have never experienced a TSP IFT electronic transaction (during a weekday) ever take longer than 24 hrs to complete. All of my electronic transactions occurring before the 12:00 Eastern Standard Time deadline have always been effected at the close of business; that same day. I have always received an email at home verifying all of my transactions supporting this principle of operation.

Please correct my TSP allocation to be effective as I requested; 100% G Fund - Close Of Business 08 September 2008.

Respectfully,
Brian Fortier
SSN -
ACCT# -

[JTH]

Same thing happend to me last month. I never did figure out what had happend, and I never saved the screen shot, so I let it be. It ended saving me some money, so I wasn't upsett at the time.

[Fivetears]

Any know what I need to put at the top of this letter so it goes to the right person? Do I just put FTRIB?

[Fivetears]

Screen Shots from now on. But the "Fox-Uniformed" thing about it is Amanda Baker said an IFT can take up to two days. I guess that is only for select people slated to profit from a timed single transaction. :mad:
Same thing happend to me last month. I never did figure out what had happend, and I never saved the screen shot, so I let it be. It ended saving me some money, so I wasn't upsett at the time.

[luv2read]

Any know what I need to put at the top of this letter so it goes to the right person? Do I just put FTRIB?
FT, I would call Ms. Baker back and get that information from her and document your phone call. Don't guess. I think it goes to Greg Long but I'm not sure; he's the one who made case-by-case decisions in the past.

[JTH]

Screen Shots from now on. But the "Fox-Uniformed" thing about it is Amanda Baker said an IFT can take up to two days. I guess that is only for select people slated to profit from a timed single transaction. :mad:

Yea I've never had a transaction take 2 days, I think they just say that to cover their azz's. The thing that urked me about my failed IFT is that now the tracker doesn't reflect my true earnings. :mad:

[Fivetears]

Thanks L2R. :) I asked Amanda who exactly to mail it in to, and she did not give me a solid answer. She just kept telling me, "Sir, you will have to FAX your compliant to the board." To the board "WHO" I asked her again. After the stream of silence... she repeated herself, "Sir, you will have to FAX your compliant to the board."
This is just flat out unfair. :mad: :(
FT, I would call Ms. Baker back and get that information from her and document your phone call. Don't guess. I think it goes to Greg Long but I'm not sure; he's the one who made case-by-case decisions in the past.

[nnuut]

This has happened before!!! Happened to a group of us on the same day, and we lost money. Sorry to say they did the same thing to us no matter how we complained. They said IFTs will be made within 2 working days and that is it!!:cool:

[Fivetears]

The fact of the matter is it does not take a computer 2 days to complete a transaction. You can bet your @$$ the Federal Government knows EXACTLY when a home based computer accesses it's system. My Friday transaction (confirmation emailed at 2355 friday night) was documented EXACTLY at the time I initiated it, and marked effective COB that same day; 5 SEP. This is the same process and time frames that have occurred for all of my TSP IFT's this year.

My Monday confirmed transaction to the G-Fund was completed 1.5 to 2 minutes before the exact time I updated the TSP Talk Autotracker. For a TSP rep to state an electronic web transaction takes 2 days to process is hogwash. They don't.

...and as of 1630 today, the TSP Online rep still could not tell me when I had initiated the Monday transaction; they only have record of my Friday transaction. When I log in to my account, it says I have a pending transaction to the G Fund; effective COB today. Yep Norman, I'm a bit bent out of shape.

Hope it comes out in the wash.

[ATCJeff]

Did anyone else get screwed on an IFT yesterday? I put mine in to the "G" at 10:48 CST yesterday (posted on the tracker), and the kind folks at TSP just informed me over the phone my transaction will take 2 days to complete. They also said if I had any complaints, to fax the Board 1-866-817-5023.
THIS IS B.S!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
S.O.A.B!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
G.D.I!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MF'rs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Wow!! That sucks. I put mine in about an hour before yours (if I remember correctly) and it worked just fine.

I've read on the TSP.gov site that the IFTs might take 2 business days to complete. But I don't remember one time it took that long. :notrust: That sucks

Mine went in pretty close to the deadline without any problems via the Internet.

Date of Request: 09/08/2008
Time of Request: 11:41:53 Eastern
Effective Date: 09/08/2008


Sorry,

Jeff

[Birchtree]

He could be on someones pissy list - no offense. I think it was just the luck of the draw.

[ATCJeff]

He could be on someones pissy list - no offense. I think it was just the luck of the draw.

I have made over 200 IFT's since July 2005 and never had one not go through at COB the same day!

[Viva_La_Migra]

I have made over 200 IFT's since July 2005 and never had one not go through at COB the same day!
Can you say class action lawsuit? I knew you could.

[Fivetears]

I threw the red flag on the field; I'll see. Judging by what others have experienced... the play will stand as called. They have me down for 11:02; 14 minute difference.

[KevinD]

There are no dumb questions, right? I'm trying to figure this out before I start doing a bunch of ITF's.

Yesterday I was sitting 100% in L2020 and decided to try an ITF.

I went with 50% to (G) just for kicks just to see what happens with an ITF.

The email I got shows the time of request as 10:52:11 eastern.

Question - That request doesn't take effect till COB on the day of the request?

And if it had been past (when? 11:00 eastern?) it wouldn't have taken effect till COB this evening? (giving me another 24 hours to lose MORE money?)

TIA!

[luv2read]

There are no dumb questions, right? I'm trying to figure this out before I start doing a bunch of ITF's.

Yesterday I was sitting 100% in L2020 and decided to try an ITF.

I went with 50% to (G) just for kicks just to see what happens with an ITF.

The email I got shows the time of request as 10:52:11 eastern.

Question - That request doesn't take effect till COB on the day of the request? And if it had been past (when? 11:00 eastern?) it wouldn't have taken effect till COB this evening?

TIA!

Time of request <12NOON eastern = effective COB that day
Time of request >12NOON eastern = effective COB next day

HOWEVER there is a caveat that IFTs can take up to TWO DAYS to process...which is ridiculous because its all electronic. That caveat dates from the time when IFT's were all done by phone and paper and had to be input MANUALLY.

[Guest2]

I threw the red flag on the field; I'll see. Judging by what others have experienced... the play will stand as called. They have me down for 11:02; 14 minute difference.

It might sound like a pain in the butt, but I'd save the webpage after each
and every IFT confirmation. The timestamp of the saved page is proof of
the time. Then again, they could always say your computers Time Sync
is not accurate. They pulled the same crap on me once before. It was
during the Mail Restriction / Fax Only era. At minimum, maybe you can let
them know that you have proof that your IFT occured within the correct
time limit because you save every webpage confirmation for future
reference. Maybe they'll look into the discrepancy a little closer. But you
know how accurate Instant Replay is. I wish you luck in any case. :(

[luv2read]

It might sound like a pain in the butt, but I'd save the webpage after each
and every IFT confirmation. The timestamp of the saved page is proof of
the time. Then again, they could always say your computers Time Sync
is not accurate. They pulled the same crap on me once before. It was
during the Mail Restriction / Fax Only era. At minimum, maybe you can let
them know that you have proof that your IFT occured within the correct
time limit because you save every webpage confirmation for future
reference. Maybe they'll look into the discrepancy a little closer. But you
know how accurate Instant Replay is. I wish you luck in any case. :(
I don't know about your agency, but all our servers are synched with the official US "nuclear clock" in Denver, and that's a documented fact. So any attempt by TSP to say the time synch is not accurate would not stand up in court. Find out what your agency servers are synched to. You can synch up your personal pc's to the official clock as well.

http://www.time.gov/timezone.cgi?Central/d/-6/java

Click the "problems/Questions" button to get this blurb (below), then download the software and your personal PC will be autosynched with the official us timeclock.



http://www.time.gov/images/setting.gif You can download software from NIST (http://tf.nist.gov/service/its.htm) and USNO (http://tycho.usno.navy.mil/) in order to use the Internet to automatically set your computer clock to the correct time.

[Fivetears]

Thanks SB & L2R. Y'all have always been good folk on this board. Always a pleasure to read your views and advice. Ya know, what's a few grand in the overall retirement objective. I really shouldn't bitch about having a trade go against me, when others too, have suffered big losses this year. Being a competitor, I just hate being beat; much worse, by myself.

Deep Breath... oooooooooooo$$$$$$$$$$$$hhhhhhhhhhhhhiiiiiiiiiiiii iittttttttttttt.
There. Better now. :)
Yall have a peaceful day. :nuts:

[Guest2]

Thanks SB & L2R. Y'all have always been good folk on this board. Always a pleasure to read your views and advice. Ya know, what's a few grand in the overall retirement objective. I really shouldn't bitch about having a trade go against me, when others too, have suffered big losses this year. Being a competitor, I just hate being beat; much worse, by myself.

Deep Breath... oooooooooooo$$$$$$$$$$$$hhhhhhhhhhhhhiiiiiiiiiiiii iittttttttttttt.
There. Better now.
Yall have a peaceful day.

NOTHING LIKE FINDING YOUR "CHI" IN THE MIDST OF CAOS.
I can remember missing a IFT opportunity, only to find out
that it benefited my balance in a few days. Its not easy
being us, but we perfer it that way ! ;)

[luv2read]

nothing like finding your "chi" in the midst of caos.
I can remember missing a ift opportunity, only to find out
that it benefited my balance in a few days. Its not easy
being us, but we perfer it that way ! ;)
ommmm ommmmm ommmmmm

[Fivetears]

It's nice to read the Fed has plenty of money for the all the poor helpless elite lenders and bankers out there who perhaps purposely screwed themselves, their companies and our nation... while banking on sure government bailouts. Nothing beats ripping off America... TWICE... without consequence and without any say-so from "We the People."

They sure had a $hitload of cash rat-holed in their matresses too, didn't they? S&P 8% in two days... unbelievable. :laugh:

I'm going back in my hole. 12 more days until I can trade again. :rolleyes:

[Fivetears]

While that was NOT my best executed trade effective on the morning of the 15th (11% Drop :mad:), I've decided to look at it from the most positive standpoint currently available; I haven't any other choice. Rifling back through the TSP share price archives, I discovered the earliest date I could have bought and held (BAH) this pile of C-Fund shares was back on December 24th 2003.

How often do you get a chance to throw 6 figures at nearly a 5 year investment "Do-Over?" :)

[Gumby]

Time of request <12NOON eastern = effective COB that day
Time of request >12NOON eastern = effective COB next day

HOWEVER there is a caveat that IFTs can take up to TWO DAYS to process...which is ridiculous


The FRTIB does not guarentee the IFT will be processed the same day even though the time stamp is before noon EST. However, I have never had one NOT processed that same day even when the time stamp was 11:59am.

With 10% fund swings in one day, the IFT not going through on the day sent could be a killer. I wish the FRTIB would let us have until at least 3:00 PM EST to make an IFT. I just wonder how much money Barclays makes from the float of all the cash they receive before Noon EST. This gives them several million dollars to invest in the PM before the markets close.

[nasa1974]

The FRTIB does not guarentee the IFT will be processed the same day even though the time stamp is before noon EST. However, I have never had one NOT processed that same day even when the time stamp was 11:59am.

With 10% fund swings in one day, the IFT not going through on the day sent could be a killer. I wish the FRTIB would let us have until at least 3:00 PM EST to make an IFT. I just wonder how much money Barclays makes from the float of all the cash they receive before Noon EST. This gives them several million dollars to invest in the PM before the markets close.
Gumby, Other members on this MB have had issues with their IFT not processing the same day. With this noon EST cut off I feel sorry for those in the other time zones, especially Alaska and Hawaii.

[akpackfan]

Yep, I have to make my decision by 0800 Local. I guess thats one price I have to pay for living in the land of Palin.:D

[Fivetears]

Got four and a quarter back today. Mark these days for the books, to talk to your kids, grandkids, and great grandkids about a couple decades from now. These intra-day point swings are just remarkable. VIX pegs 81.17; remarkable.

[Gumby]

Yep, I have to make my decision by 0800 Local. I guess thats one price I have to pay for living in the land of Palin.:D

Your really at a disadvantage.

[justbizness45]

Your really at a disadvantage.

Anyone on PST and west is. I get up at 0450 (local) shower and read what everyone else has posted. Leave home at 0600 (1/2 hour before market opens). When I get to work the market has been open for 1/2 hour and I make my decisions by 0815 (1115 ET) and go to morning meetings. Not alot of time to look at what is happening but we play the hand we are dealt as best we can. Now I just need to make enough money to retire and play full time. :o

[kar_crazy]

Merry Christmas F T :) have not seen you around in a while

[kar_crazy]

6834hello F T going to Ennis this weekend , do you have a 4wd chassis for ole blue:D

[Fivetears]

Hello... is there anyone in there (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZB1cNkC71vE)... Been awhile since my last post; Sep 2009? Jeeze.
I've been lurking on the tracker page.
Finally made the Top 10 today with just 2 moves.
I wonder if the S-Fund was considered a player.
One more day... :)

[JTH]

Congrats, those are some great returns, and with only 2 IFTs to boot! :D

[nnuut]

Nice to hear from you FT!!! I'm still 70% in the "S" but today the "C" is doing a little better, many are saying the large caps are the way to go but I'm waiting until I see it!:D
Happy New Year to you and your family.
Norman

[Fivetears]

JTH and Norm; Appreciate the congrats and wishes. It's been tough holding the course, but I really dislike the movement "options" of TSP. 2 moves in and one trip to the bathroom a month reminds me too much of my 30-year married sex life these days.

[kar_crazy]

well happy new F T , you still have the ole elci:)

[Fivetears]

The beast lives, KC; used it today to go pick up some lumber and building materials at Home Depot. I'm building a 10 X 12 storage shed in the back yard.