EW_ret Account Talk [Archive]

EW_ret

01-05-2006, 12:15 PM

I have been lurking long enough (July 2004) on TSP Talk and thought I would start a thread to talk about how and why I make IFT moves. There are many smart people that frequent the TSPTalk forum. I appreciate other points of view.

I started 2006 with just 10% allocated to L 2020, so I had just 6.462% of my TSP account in the equity index funds and over 93% in G Fund. I made this move on 12-30-2005 because someone pointed out that many expected a drop in January 2006, and the market often humbles us small players. This I find to be so true. This very small euity allocation netted a return 0.27% on my TSP account over two days. I moved back to G 100% a COB yesterday, 1-4-2006.

Since July 2005, I have at most allocated 40% in the C, S, and I funds and have stayed away from F Fund altogther. I started these lower equity allocations because I was retiring in Sep 2005 and did not require higher returns (> 7%), and the risk that goes with it. I ran my asset/risk figures through Financial Engines to arrive at this conclusion.

EW_ret

01-06-2006, 03:05 PM

It’s a big push up for the stock market today. What a week for the markets. Most everybody expected this big push up in December, but it waited until January. This first week in January 2006 the market indices are in the green +2.9% to +5.4%. That’s a whole month worth of gains in a good month.

I remain G 100%. Sure would be nice to have a crystal ball! Oh well, no risk no gain. I am in the asset preservation mode. Only 32% of my retirement assets are in equities and all my TSP is in G fund. My TSP represents 34% of my retirement assets.

EW_ret

01-09-2006, 11:02 AM

Why fight the momentum? Went 30% into equities today (70% G, 15% C, 5% S, 10% I). Will likely be back to 100% G by Friday.

It appears many are increasing their equity positions today. I guess its safe since Tom is not jumping in.

EW_ret

01-12-2006, 11:19 AM

Since the I Fund should be down today, I am making a inter-fund transfer of 5% from C to I Fund today. I will be 70% G, 10% C, 5% S, and 15% I by COB today.

I had mixed feelings this morning about moving 100% to G, but this would go contrary to my investment strategy. The big unknown is how the PPI report tomorrow will impact the market. I believe it will not be good news this time.

I should have increased my equity position to 50% (25C/10S/15I), but did not follow through because I have this sinking feeling that the market will make sudden move down within the next few days. I finally compromised by maintaining the 30% position in equities.

EW_ret

01-13-2006, 11:34 AM

Today I moved to 85% G and stayed 15% in the I fund. I feel embarrassed on the misread I made on I fund direction yesterday. I thought it would end lower because of the strong dollar (+0.8 % to euro). Now, I believe it smart to stay the course a while longer in an attempt to recover the losses it will experience today. I am praying the C and S funds will have minimal loses today.::o

EW_ret

01-17-2006, 10:50 AM

Anticipating a rebound in I Fund tomorrow. Attempting to recover today’s big losses. It’s a gamble! :(

EW_ret

01-18-2006, 11:03 AM

Well, the anticipated rebound in I fund did not happen. The losses in Japan and Pacific region only increased today. Hope the panic selling does not move to U.S markets. I was considering moving 20% to C Fund today. However, there remains uncertainty in our own markets, and a correction is likely. What is story in Japan markets? I will have to investigate.

I am now in hole for January to tune of about -0.5% in value of my TSP account. Should of gone 100% G fund last Friday, rather that remain in I Fund, and then double my position in I fund yesterday. :mad:

EW_ret

01-19-2006, 11:08 AM

Getting "whipsawed" in I fund because I’m not staying the course when markets are down. The I fund kicked my b*t being down 2.63% for two days, and hearing talk that Japan markets had to stop trading due volume of sell orders. Sold the I fund yesterday and absorbed a 0.5% loss in my TSP account. Well, the recover day in I fund is today, rather yesterday as I had anticipated. :(

I’m putting my foot in the US markets today (80% G, 15% C, and 5% S) and staying the course for a while. :)

EW_ret

01-20-2006, 11:28 AM

I added 10% to my equity positions in my TSP account today. I will be at 70% G, 20% C, and 10% S at COB today. I will be patient this time and not sell next week if market continues down. Will the S&P500 consolidation be swift and shallow to 1250 or long and deep to below 1200? High oil prices are a big contributor to a market correction.

The mid/small stocks (S Fund) appear stronger this morning, but they now appear to be caving in and the selling has pick up. Will market strengthen this afternoon to minimize losses? This would be good sign. If S&P finishes below 1270 today, I expect continued weakness next week.

I will consider adding to my equity position next week if the S&P500 falls below 1250.:(

EW_ret

01-23-2006, 11:29 AM

Selling half my small equity position and transferring to the G fund in face of up market today. Just hope we finish up today. Maintaining a small equity position of 10% C and 5% S due to buying high last Thursday.

I was tempted to put money some in I fund today, but changed my mind at last minute. I got burned last week in I fund thinking it would rebound. The weaker dollar today should help offset the losses in I fund today. I’ am confused by disparity in MSI EAFE reading (+1.2%) and my estimated read that I fund should be down more than 0.50% today.

EW_ret

01-24-2006, 11:10 AM

Selling my remaining equity position and transferring all to the G fund. Hope we finish up today. Retreating to the safety of G fund and await the next down trend.

I was again tempted to place a small amount in the I fund, as others are doing. The I fund should finish near unchanged today. I did not follow through because I got burned last week thinking I fund would rebound.

EW_ret

02-01-2006, 10:10 AM

I keep telling myself to be patient, and let the market pullback at least 3%. I’m still 100% G and waiting for a pullback to below 1260 in the S&P500 before I ease back into equities. It’s hard to be patient when you see the market surge ahead like what we saw Thursday and Friday of last week.

I also need to be patient when I am in equities. If I had stayed with my equity position (20% C, 10% S) through Friday of last week, I would now be positive for January. This would have added +0.467%. Instead I ended up negative for January with –0.34%. Patience, I need to find this virtue.

I need to stop worrying about losing dollars in my TSP and stay the course with a 30-40% equity position. Financial engines recommended a position of 65% G, 25% I, and 10% C using a conservative 0.70 risk factor. I don’t need my money in TSP until I am forced to start withdrawing at 71 years old. :o

Birchtree

02-01-2006, 05:57 PM

EWguy,

Give yourself a treat and go all in - let the current bull market provide you some gains. Use dollar cost averaging to your advantage and buy. Don't worry about a little pain - it's alright to suffer some - I've actually come to enjoy it myself - it's all about being tolerant. Financial Engines is fine except they have no stomach - that separates you from them. Have no fear of the bears, they are necessary to thin the bull riders. Have some fun.

Dennis - permabull #2

EW_ret

02-02-2006, 09:00 AM

Thanks for the encouragement Birchtree! Your positive comments give me hope. I came up with a strategy how to increase my equity position, but I am waiting some pull-back.

Dollar cost averaging works best when one has contributions going into their TSP account. As your account grows in size the contributuions have less of impact on the average purchase price. Unfortunately, I have no contributions going into my account because I retired last year. All I can do is move small amounts by IFT over the next few months. Moving a few percent each week into C, S, and I would give me a better price. I’ve been thing about just using G and the L 2020 fund because this would allow fractional percent contributions into the underling C,S, and I funds. Moving three or four percent per week from G to L 2020 over four months would result in 51% to 68% in the L 2020 fund in four months. This would give me about 33% to 44% spread among C, S and I.

It’s uncanny how conservative I've become in my TSP account since last summer. Last year at this time I kept 40 to 80% in TSP equities. Now 40% is the upper boundary because my tolerance is lower. My Vanguard accounts have done much better than my TSP account because they limit your fund exchanges.

EW_ret

02-06-2006, 11:35 AM

I made IFT today to 96% G, 3% C, and 1% S Fund. The recent weakness in markets is near objective of 1260 in S&P500. Starting to slowly move back into equities over next two months.

Market could break below the 1263 support of S&P500. Hard to call today where S&P500 will end. I could have waited a few more days, but the objective is to make 10 or so buys of C and S funds over the next two months. My strategy is buy additional 3% to 5% of C and S funds with each purchase. This percentage could increase if S&P500 goes below 1230.

EW_ret

02-08-2006, 10:05 AM

I made IFT today to 92% G, 4% C, 2% S, and 2% I. The weakness in markets makes patience hard to practice. I am moving back into equities and trying to to get a better average price.

S&P500 could break below the 1250 today. The S and I markets show continued weakness and make them a better buy. The objective is to make 10 or so buys of C, S, and I funds over the next two months. I have now added the I fund to the mix, and hope I do not regret it. My strategy is buy additional 3% to 5% with each purchase. This percentage could increase if S&P500 goes below 1230 (200 day average).:eek:

EW_ret

02-09-2006, 11:35 AM

I made IFT today to 96% G, 3% C, and 1% S. I am removing the buys of yesterday and awaiting market weakness next week.

I am waiting for S&P500 could move below 1260 before buying more. My objective is to make 10 or so buys of C, S, and I funds over the next two months. My strategy is to buy an additional 3% to 5% with each purchase. This percentage could increase if S&P500 falls below 1230 (200 day average). I may also lighten up at times, like today.

The I fund payout today should be interesting. Some TSP Talk members claim it owes $0.09 a share from Tuesday, others say it needs to subtract $0.10/share due to Tuesday and Wednesday action. It could up unchanged today even though MSCI EAFE Developed appears to be up more than 1%.;)

EW_ret

02-16-2006, 11:37 AM

I made IFT today 2-16-2006 to 94% G, 3% C, 1% S, and 2% I. Buying 2% of I Fund. I am waiting for U.S. market weakness before buying more C and S.

My strategy remains the same. My goal is to position myself to 30% to 40% equities over the next two months. By making incremental purchases I will get a better average price.

I added 2% I Fund because it has been the weaker of the equity funds this week. Buying the I Fund on a big down day often does not work because of Barclay's fair evaluation adjustments. Maybe buying the I Fund on a UP day for MSCI EAFE markets will get a better price. The risk I run is if US markets get real strong this afternoon, the adjustment to I Fund will make it expensive today :(

EW_ret

02-17-2006, 11:12 AM

I made IFT today 2-17-2006 to 94% G, 3% C, 0% S, and 3% I. I am selling the S Fund and buying 1% more of I Fund.

I added to the I Fund because it has been weaker and yesterday it overpaid $0.10/share because of the strong U.S. markets in afternoon resulted in heavy late buying of internationals. It will likey end up with more than a 1% loss today, unless Barclay's adjusts its price upward again.

EW_ret

02-22-2006, 11:28 AM

I made IFT 2-22-2006 to G Fund. Waiting for the downturn in US markets. The February seasonal chart for S&P500 shows the last trading day as up, but I believe the opposite will happen. There may be one more up day this week, but I am getting out of my 6% position today. But what do I know, I am almost even in my TSP account for YTD.

EW_ret

03-01-2006, 10:27 AM

I remain 100% in the G Fund. Waiting for the S&P 500 to fall below 1260. It may be a while before it falls that far so I will buy a small amount of C and I if it approaches 1270.

EW_ret

03-03-2006, 11:10 AM

I made IFT COB 3-03-2006 to 94% G, 3% C, 1% S, and 2% I. I am waiting for further U.S. market weakness before buying more. My patience is wearing thin waiting for the S&P 500 to drop below 1260. Will it test 1281today? Will the S&P 500 fall below 1270 next week?

EW_ret

03-07-2006, 10:54 AM

I made IFT COB 3-07-2006 to 90% G, 5% C, 2% S, and 3% I. The markets are showing weakness so I am buying 4% more equities. This move increases my equity positions; C by 66%, S by 100% and I by 50%.

I am still in a good position (90% G) to buy more on any continued weakness. Will the S&P500 test 1270 today? Will it test 1260, or lower, later this week? Is this the consolidation we have been waiting for to get back in the markets? These are questions that everyone wants to know.
:nuts:

EW_ret

03-08-2006, 12:15 PM

I made IFT COB 3-08-2006 to 85% G, 8% C, 4% S, and 3% I. The markets continue to show weakness so I am buying 5% more equities. This move increases my equity positions; C by 60%, and S by 100%.

The S&P500 tested 1268 today and started to recover after 12:00 pm EDT. Is this the consolidation we have been waiting for to get back in the markets? Am I too anxius in buying the markets?

I am trying to get a lower average price by making incremental buys (3%-6%). If this is a true consolidation for the markets, it will likely take weeks, or months, to reach bottom. Buying too often may not result in the best average price. Maybe I need a rule, like wait for a 1% drop, before making another 5% buy.:D

EW_ret

03-09-2006, 11:19 AM

ROTH_TSP,

A Roth TSP option would be a good thing for all federal employees. But, I do not see it happening anytime soon. When I was working I saved the maximum allowed in both my TSP account and Roth IRA. I agree that taxes in future can only go up, so a ROTH is a good thing.

I thought about rolling over my TSP account, or a portion, to my Vanguard IRA account. But, then I could not have any fun with playing the market. Vanguard has rules on selling equity and bond funds. I will not open a brokerage account because of the expenses, and having to pay a commission with each trade.

I will likely compromise and rollover 100K or so to Vanguard, and leave the remaining in TSP to have fun. This would protect me from myself. :laugh:

EW_ret

03-09-2006, 11:43 AM

I made IFT COB 3-09-2006 to 94% G, 3% C, 1% S, and 2% I. I am selling into the modest market strength, as of 12:00 pm EDT. I expect weakness in markets tomorrow that a good jobs report will bring. The recent concern is interest rates rising, and a strong job report will reinforce expectations that the Fed will continue raising short rates.

The S&P500 is having trouble getting above 1283 today. Is this a sign of a laggard market that Tom spoke of in his comments today? The consolidation we have been waiting for may be soon at hand. The markets just went to break even after 12:15 pm. Selling today may not have been a good thing to do. Oh well, can’t win all the time. They may still finish in the green by 4:00 pm. :confused:

EW_ret

03-10-2006, 11:26 AM

Well, the U.S. markets finished in red yesterday. I sold my 8% in C and S for a small loss. The I fund's 1.15% gain helped cushion the blow. :( :embarrest:

I made IFT COB today selling remaining equity position to 100% G. I expected this strength yesterday and weakness today with a good jobs report. I sure called that one wrong!

Has market psychology changed, or did the majority think as I did yesterday? The Fed will likely continue raising short rates to 5.5%, and the markets will be subdued for a while. I have recently lightened up on all my bond funds and will buy back in incrementally over the next 18 months.

EW_ret

03-13-2006, 11:17 AM

I ordered IFT for COB 3-13-2006 to 80% G and 20% F. Bonds do look set for short term rebound. The 10-year Treasury bond is near 4.8%. I just cannot commit more than 20% of my TSP account to bounds. I’ am averse to go more than 30% into a single fund. I will likely stay in F Fund for a few days.

EW_ret

03-16-2006, 12:09 PM

I ordered IFT for COB 3-16-2006 to 100% G. Bonds have rebounded strongly the past few days and its time to sell my 20% F Fund position. The 10-year Treasury bond was near 4.79% when I bought Monday and today is around 4.65%.

It’s too bad I did not also buy some C and S Monday because equities have also risen strongly the past few days.

Does the correlation between bond and stocks turn positive when interest rates rise? Market talk says the equity prices are rising because bonds are rallying because inflation is tame. Who is buying U.S. treasury bonds today? Is this causing bond prices to rise, and yields to go down?

mlk_man

03-16-2006, 12:13 PM

EWGuy, you posted your move 41 minutes after the deadline. I've given you lots of leeway already. Is there a reason you aren't able to post by the deadline?

M_M

EW_ret

03-16-2006, 01:21 PM

MlkMan,

I was waiting to see what moves you would make today. You posted so near the 12:00 pm mark. Then I started reading other posts and just lost track of the time. I also type real slow because I only use two fingers.

I do believe this is the first time I have posted beyond the 12:30 pm deadline, which I believe you use. I have posted a few minutes beyond 12:00 pm a number of times. Is this what you mean by giving me slack?

The price of bonds did not change much between 11:40 am, when I made the change at TSP.gov, and 12:41 pm, when I finally posted my IFT move at TSPTalk. If you want to log my 20% F Fund move to G for March 17 that’s fine. It makes little difference to me because I know I made the IFT at COB on March 16.

mlk_man

03-16-2006, 01:27 PM

EW_ret

03-17-2006, 10:04 AM

I made IFT today (3-17-2006) to 25% G, 10% F, 25% C, 15% S, and 25% I. I am jumping into the markets with SPAF, who in normally quite risk adverse. My move is contrary to most others today who are moving to the G Fund. I will likely stay with this moderate allocation while waiting for the S&P 500 to hit 1400. :)

I started a Rollover IRA account at Vanguard two days ago, and will fund it with a transfer from my TSP account. I am taking Vanguard up on their offer for a free financial plan for anyone bringing in at least $100,000 into a Vanguard account by April 30th. I would like their opinion/recommendation on the equity allocation for retired federal employee, age 57, who does not need his investment income until at least age 62. I believe my CSRS pension is sufficient to live on for the next five years. It has been so far, but I am new to retirement life. :D

EW_ret

03-20-2006, 11:11 AM

I made IFT today (3-20-2006) to 20% G, 5% F, 30% C, 20% S, and 25% I. I am adding to C and S and reducing my F positions. I hope to stay with this allocation while waiting for the S&P 500 to hit 1400. :)

EW_ret

03-21-2006, 12:40 PM

I made IFT today (3-21-2006) to 10% G, 5% F, 30% C, 25% S, and 30% I. I am adding to my S and I positions.

I foresee a market pullback soon, perhaps starting next month. We should have one more push higher, followed by a big move down, then volatile consolidation lasting until November.

This is year two of a presidential term. The second and third quarters of year two tend to be very weak. The fourth quarter of year two, and first and second quarter of year three are up big-time (more than 20%).:D [Ref: "Tough 6 Months For Stocks", By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer March 21, 2006: 12:00 PM EST].

EW_ret

03-22-2006, 01:44 PM

I made IFT today (3-22-2006) to 20% G, 0% F, 30% C, 20% S, and 30% I. I sold all F and 5% of S and moved it to G. I do not see much room for bonds to advance, unless there is a major down slide in equities. I sold 5% S fund, which I bought yesterday, to capture the gains that the market may give us today. I am holding off selling any I fund because it looks to be flat, or down today.

EW_ret

03-27-2006, 10:13 AM

I made IFT today (3-27-2006) to 25% G, 0% F, 30% C, 20% S, and 25% I. This increases my equity positions by 5% in C, S and I Funds. I am preparing for the opposite of a normal last week of March. The final week of March is normally weak, so I expect strength. :D :nuts:

The wild card is the release of the Federal Reserve policy meeting tomorrow afternoon. How will the markets react to the minutes and our new Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke?

EW_ret

03-30-2006, 11:09 AM

I made IFT today (3-30-2006) to 65% G, 5% F, 15% C, 5% S, and 10% I. This decreases my equity positions by 15% in C, S and I Funds. Buying a little F fund as insurance against a sharp market fall.

I don't see much upside potential in the markets for the short-term. Just range bound between 1295 and 1310 for a while, then a big correction. Oil prices are rising and with summer driving season around the corner and gas prices can only go up. The longer-term bonds prices have fallen, yields going up. I expect the 10-year Treasury bond yield will approach 5%, since the short-term bonds are rising to 4.8%.

EW_ret

03-31-2006, 10:48 AM

I made IFT at COB today (3-31-2006) to 50% G, 0% F, 30% C, 10% S, and 10% I. This sells the F fund strength and buys the C and S fund weakness. The I fund is a big unknown due to FV pricing the past three days. It should be down about 0.8%, but could end unchanged or down 1.5% to make up for the past three days.

I am doing the opposite of most at TSPTalk who are running to the G Fund to catch the penny. The first week of Arpril, spring is in the air, everybody feels good, and maybe a run-up of the markets. Wishful thinking?

EW_ret

04-03-2006, 11:05 AM

I made IFT today (4-3-2006) to 70% G, 5% F, 15% C, 5% S, and 5% I. This decreases my equity positions by 50% in C, S and I Funds. Market appears strong at the deadline so I 'am taken some profits. Buying 5% F fund as insurance against a market fall tomorrow.

The market strength may not last, but I hope it finishes positive. I think it’s the spring effect taken hold and people feel good. I’ am on vacation this week in Denver and Steamboat Springs, Colorado. I brought my notebook to stay in touch.

EW_ret

04-04-2006, 11:02 AM

I made IFT today (4-4-2006) to 75% G, 5% F, 15% C, 5% S, and 0% I. This sell my I fund position. European component of I fund is up due to weak dollar so I 'am taken profits.

The U.S. markets are uncertain at 12:00 pm deadline, but I expect strength to show up in the afternoon. The opposite of what happened yesterday when morning strength was sold in afternoon. If this happens, I fund could have FV day up to compensate for heavy afternoon buying of foreign stocks.

EW_ret

04-05-2006, 12:59 PM

I made IFT today (4-5-2006) to 100% G. This sells the remaining shares of C, S, and F funds and moves all to G fund. This move goes against majority of TSP Talk members who are buying more C, S, and/or I funds today.

The U.S. markets are uncertain at 12:00 pm deadline, but I expect strength this afternoon. This provides good opportunity to sell into the strength and move to the safety of G fund. The markets are at or above highs of the past month. I expect the S%P 500 to fall over the next week.

EW_ret

04-11-2006, 11:20 AM

I made IFT at COB on 4-11-2006 to 60% G and 40% L2020. This has an allocation of 71.4%G, 3.2% F, 13.3% C, 4.7% S, 7.4% I. This IFT increases the equity and bond positions by 33%. I made initial foray into the L 2020 fund last week (4-6-2006) with a 30% stake. Hindsight: Wish I made smaller initial purchase last week (10% or 15%). The markets have been sliding down since I eased back into equities.

EW_ret

04-13-2006, 11:27 AM

I made IFT at COB on 4-13-2006 to 100% G. This sells the 40% position in L 2020. The S&P 500 ended near its 50 day MA support yesterday and could fall below that point today. As Tom pointed out in today's comments, next Monday has 90% chance of going lower if S&P 500 finishes below its 50 day MA support today. I don't want to be in equities for the weekend. I have a feeling something is about to happen in world events that will have a negative impact. The price of gasoline is going up around here almost every day. This has me very concerned about consumer confidence. I feel like "Louise, I feel the big one coming on". But, then again the markets could be strong enough to climb my big wall of worry.

sugarandspice

04-13-2006, 11:39 AM

I keep hearing about that 90% chance IF the S&P falls below its 50 day, but what if it does'nt? Then what are the odds?
Anyone?

EW_ret

04-17-2006, 11:06 AM

I made IFT at COB on 4-17-2006 to 70% G and 30% L2020. This is 78.5%G, 2.4% F, 10% C, 3.5% S, 5.6% I. I am moving from 100% G back into a small equity position. Looks like today will finish little changed, but hard to tell ay 12:00 pm. The European markets are closed today for holiday. The price of oil is now above $71/bl and this has me concerned.

EW_ret

04-18-2006, 11:05 AM

I made IFT at COB on 4-18-2006 to 90% G and10% L2020. This is 92.8%G, 0.8% F, 3.3% C, 1.2% S, 1.9% I. I am reducing equity position by 66% because markets are strong at 12:00 pm. The price of oil is near $72/bl and this has me concerned.

EW_ret

04-20-2006, 11:44 AM

I made IFT at COB on 4-20-2006 to 70% G and 30% F. This sells my 10% position in L 2020 and buys 30% F. I anticipate a short-term rise in bond prices. At COB Friday I will likely go to 100% G, unless markets are falling hard by 12 pm tomorrow.

The price of oil was near $73/bl, but has fallen below $72/bl. The local gas prices have risen to $2.859/gal (87% Oct), as of yesterday. This is a 0.259/gal rise in the last week. We may look back in fond memories next year about the good old days when gas was only $3 a gallon.

EW_ret

04-28-2006, 11:06 AM

I made IFT at COB on 4-28-2006 to 100% G. This sells my 30% position in F. I will be away for a week or two without access to the Internet so I am playing it safe until I return.

The local gas prices remain at $2.859/gal (87% Oct) for past ten days. I am going to trade in my Jeep for something better on gas. I see many big cars and SUVs for sale now. The Japanese automakers are introducing their subcompacts in US markets. These are small, gasoline-burning, 40 mpg highway cars. I test-drove a Toyota YARIS a few weeks ago. It does not have much get-up (1.5 lit four) with five adults, but its efficient for transportation. The instrument cluster is in the center of the dash.

LA_Guy

04-28-2006, 11:27 AM

$2.86/gal is very cheap comparing to $3.20 here in LA. No wonder those politicians in Virginia hasn't feel the effect of high fuel cost yet. :)

nnuut

04-28-2006, 05:24 PM

$6.85 a gal. in London!!!:sick: BBBAHHHhhh!

EW_ret

05-09-2006, 10:09 AM

I made IFT at COB on 5-09-2006 to 100% G. This sells my 20% position in F that I bought at COB on 5-3-2006. I remain away from home for a second week with access to the Internet over a slow dial up account.

The local gas prices have dropped $0.12/gal in the past week. Regular now goes for $2.739/gal (87% Oct). This is good news, bur still too high for my comfort. We are entering the seasonal poor period for stocks, and better for bonds. The Fed will likely increase the short rates to 5% tomorrow. I expect the longer bond rates to increase over the next few weeks otherwise lending/borrowing will slow.

EW_ret

05-16-2006, 11:08 AM

I made IFT at COB on 5-16-2006 to 60% G, 20% C, and 20% S. This adds 5% to both C and S that I bought COB yesterday. I arrived back home Sunday, after being away for two weeks.

The local gas prices have risen in the past two weeks, but oil has dropped below $70/bl. Regular is now at $2.829/gal (87% Oct). This is too high for my comfort. We have entered the seasonal poor period for stocks. The Fed increased the short rates to 5% last week.

EW_ret

05-19-2006, 11:20 AM

I made IFT at COB on 5-19-2006 to 40% G, 25% C, 25% S, and 10% I fund. This adds 5% to both C and S, and buys 10% into the I fund.

Where is the bottom? Will it be near 1250 for S&P 500, or a deeper consolidation below 1200? What will get this market out of its inflation funk? Perhaps I should have just gotten out today with a loss. I was unlucky at getting into C/S on Monday (5-15) when the market continued its downward spiral. Now I feel compelled to increase my exposure to C/S/I hoping for a bounce. :embarrest:

The local gas prices have remained unchanged, but oil has dropped below $69/bl. Regular remains at $2.829/gal (87% Oct).

EW_ret

05-22-2006, 11:40 AM

I made IFT at COB on 5-22-2006 to 30% G, 30% C, and 40% S fund. This adds 5% to C, 15% to S, and sells 10% in I fund. I see further downside to the I fund from our market slide today. I expect about 1.5% drop in the I fund today and a FV day that will ease the pain.

Where is the bottom to these markets? This starts the third week of consolidation. Will S&P 500 stabilize near 1252, or is a deeper consolidation below 1200 in the cards? I feel compelled to increase my exposure to C and S in hopes for a bounce later this week. :embarrest:

The local gas prices have come down 0.05/gal the past few days, and oil has dropped below $68/bl. Regular gas is at $2.779/gal (87% Oct). :)

EW_ret

05-24-2006, 11:52 AM

I made IFT at COB on 5-24-2006 to 40% C, 40%, and 20% I fund. This adds 10% to C and buys 20% of I fund.

Where is the bottom to these markets? This is the third week of consolidation. Will S&P 500 stabilize near 1252, or is a deeper consolidation below 1200 in the cards? I am accelerating my exposure to equities while they are dropping to initiate recommendations from a new financial plan

I am in the process of readjusting my investment portfolio to achieve a 55/35/10 allocation (equity/bonds/cash). I was at 32/7/61 a month ago (4-19-2006), and now I am at 42/11/47. This readjustment originates from a free financial plan that I ordered from Vanguard last month. I will talk with a Vanguard CFP tomorrow. My exposure to equities and bonds had really sunk to an all time low over the past year. I find myself becoming risk adverse since I retired last year.

I should have waited a few more weeks before increasing my equity exposure. I am trying to buy more equities on the dips, but the markets keep falling. Oh well, hindsight does not help the queasy feeling of seeing my portfolio drop on daily basis. My timing on purchasing international funds is downright poor. I opened a new position in Vanguard Total International Index last Friday and Monday it fell 2.27%. :embarrest:

Birchtree

05-24-2006, 12:32 PM

Chances are when you look back in 30 days you will have wished you had another $200,000 to put to work. These corrections happen periodically and can actually be an opportunity. You are on the right track.

EW_ret

05-24-2006, 01:33 PM

Thanks for the encouragement Birchtree.

I know this change in asset allocation is good for the long term. Its just painful while the markets are dropping. My initial strategy was to slowly dollar cost average to the target allocation over six months. However, I have accelerated the buying the past two weeks because the markets were falling.

I do not need these retirement funds until forced to at age 701/2 (13 years). I need at least a moderate risk level (50-60% equities) for growth. Perhaps I should look to the new Vanguard model for their Target Retirement funds. The Vanguard Target 2015 Retirement fund is moving from 46/54 to 67/33 (Equity/Bonds). The year the fund matures the asset allocation hits 50/50, and ten years after target date it levels out at 30/65/5. Vanguard's old retirement fund model was much more conservative.

EW_ret

06-05-2006, 11:16 AM

I made IFT at COB on 6-5-2006 to 80% G, 10% S, and 10% I. On hindsight, I wish I had stayed with my equity position for the remainder of last week. Instead, I used my gut feelings, and bailed to G fund last Tuesday. Got whipsawed and took a loss of 1.6% Tuesday, only to see the markets recovery the next two days. I was worried that there was going to be further weakness through the week.

My strategy is to ease back into equities this week

EW_ret

06-07-2006, 11:16 AM

I made IFT at COB on 6-7-2006 to 60% G, 10% C, 10% S, and 20% I. This sells 5% of C fund, 10% of S fund, and buys 5% more I and 10% more G fund. I am expecting C and S funds to end the day positive. The I fund would end negative more than -1% if FV of -$0.23 is added from yesterday's performance (i.e. 6-6-06: MSCI EAFE -2.92%. but I fund -1.7%). Of course the FV adjustment may be deferred until tomorrow, when MSCI EAFE should finish up.

My strategy is to ease back into equities this week, taking gains when possible, and staying defensive by keeping 20-60% in G fund.

EW_ret

06-08-2006, 11:11 AM

I made IFT at COB on 6-8-2006 to 60% G, 20% C, 20% S. This sells the I fund position for a big loss, and adds 10% to C and S funds. I am hoping C and S funds will bounce tomorrow, and expect the I fund to continue its fall.

My strategy was to ease back into equities this week, taking gains when possible, and staying defensive by keeping 20-60% in G fund. There have been no gains to exploit, and when I sold some C and S yesterday, I only locked in losses. Last week when I bailed to G fund, the markets bounced back. I hope the markets bounce back tomorrow, or Monday.

EW_ret

06-13-2006, 12:56 PM

I made an IFT at COB on 6-13-2006 to 45% G, 5% F, 25% C, 12% S, and 13% I fund. This adds 20% to my equity positions (+8% C, +6% S and +6% I), which I opened two weeks ago. I have sustained about 1.6% loss in my TSP account since May 30th. The YTD performance is now at break even. The U.S. and foreign markets continue falling and it appears panic selling has set Asia and Europe in a downward spiral. I expect the I fund will be down more than 2% today.

My strategy was to ease back into equities, taking gains when possible, and staying defensive by keeping 20-60% in G fund. There have been no gains to exploit, since the markets have been down almost every day.

My retirement portfolio asset allocation now stands at 45%/12%/43% (stock/bond/cash). My TSP account only represents 5% of this portfolio. It was up to 48% equities on May 25, but I moved 4% of equities to cash in my IRAs on May 31st and June 2nd. I have been buying back those equity shares, and will continue over the next three months. I have also been buying equity shares (U.S. and international) in my taxable account. I have bought equity shares as the markets have turned down, but they just keep falling every day. The U.S. and foreign markets appear to be feeding on each other's negative performance.

EW_ret

06-16-2006, 10:33 AM

I made an IFT at COB on 6-16-2006 to 35% G, 25% C, 20% S, and 20% I fund. This sells all F shares and adds 15% to my equity positions (+8% S and +7% I). Yesterdays big gains helped repair the damage in my TSP account so it stands at -0.4% since May 30th. The YTD performance for my TSP account is now +0.4%.

My strategy was to ease back into equities, taking gains when possible, and staying defensive by keeping 20-60% in G fund. I stand at 65% equities in TSP. I plan to reduce C/S/I exposure when S&P 500 approaches 1270.

My retirement portfolio asset allocation now stands at 47%/13%/40% (stock/bond/cash).

EW_ret

06-19-2006, 11:09 AM

I made an IFT at COB on 6-19-2006 to 40% G, 25% C, 25% S, and 10% I fund. This sells 10% of I fund and adds 5% to S fund. I looks like the I fund will end slightly positive though the strong dollar will take a big part of the gains. The S fund is weakest so I am buying more shares today. I am keeping 40% in G to buy more shares at lower price if markets turn down further this week.

My strategy is to ease back into equities, taking gains when possible, and staying defensive by keeping 20-60% in G fund. I plan to reduce C/S/I exposure when S&P 500 approaches 1270.

EW_ret

06-23-2006, 11:10 AM

I made an IFT at COB on 6-23-2006 to 70% G, 20% C, and 10% S. This sells 10% of C fund and 20% of S fund. I sold the 10% of I fund yesterday, and bought 5% additional C and S. I am hoping for a positive finish in U.S. markets today. I am keeping 70% in G to buy more shares at lower price if markets turn down next week.

My strategy is to ease back into equities, taking gains when possible, and staying defensive by keeping 20-70% in G fund. I plan to reduce my C/S/I exposure when S&P 500 is above 1270. That should happen within the next few weeks.

EW_ret

06-28-2006, 11:04 AM

I made an IFT at COB on 6-28-2006 to 20% G, 40% C, and 40% S. This buys additional 10% of C fund and 20% of S funds. I purchased additional 10% of C and S funds Monday (6-26). I should have held off that purchase until today.

My strategy is to ease back into equities, taking gains when possible, and staying defensive by keeping 20-70% in G fund. I plan to reduce my C/S/I exposure when S&P 500 is above 1270.

EW_ret

07-03-2006, 11:15 AM

I made an IFT at COB on 7-03-2006 to 100% G. This sells the remaining 25% of C and 15% of S funds. I am going defensive because I expect market downside Wednesday and/or Thursday. I then must decide if I want back in for Friday and the beginning of next week.

My strategy was to ease into equities, taking gains when possible, and staying defensive. The S&P 500 is now above 1270 so its time to play defensive. Will the market turn down this summer and fall for the expected four-year cycle bust? That’s what many expect, so will it happen?

EW_ret

07-05-2006, 10:57 AM

I made an IFT at COB on 7-05-2006 to 70% G, 13% C, and 17% S. This buys 30% into the market weakness today. I remain defensive because of possible further market downside.

My strategy is to ease into equities, take gains when possible, and stay defensive. The S&P 500 ended at 1280 on July 3rd so I went 100% G at COB.

Will the stock markets turn down this summer and fall for the expected four-year cycle bust? That’s what many expect, so will it happen?

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/images/buttons/quote.gif (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=49046) http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/images/buttons/quickreply.gif (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=49046)

EW_ret

10-17-2006, 09:56 PM

I thought I would make a post to my account talk today since its been awhile. The market has continued its upward move since my last entry in July. The S&P 500 finished at 1364 today, down 5. That up 6.5% from July 3rd.

I have access to the RevShark's newletter so I cannot say my current fund allocation. I am content with my TSP account performance. Its much easier not deciding where to place my TSP money every week. Thats done for me now.

The Weekly Tracker work keeps me busy. Then there is the "to do list" and I'am still on item 5. The first year of retirement life has gone by quickly.

Griffin

10-18-2006, 06:45 AM

EW_ret

10-18-2006, 07:28 AM

EW,

I fully understand and appreciate the confidentiality of the RevShark newsletter, but I have a question: If you are a subscriber, can you post your allocation, if you are not following Rev but are getting the newsletter for his insight?

I defer the official response to your question to Tom. Its a good question and I have wondered about that myself. I don't precisely follow the RevShark recommendations. Since I have retired my account is not growing by contributions and I have become more conservative. My primary goal is to protect capital, and outperform the L2010 fund. Therefore, the newsletter comments are more important. I tend to follow the fund choices in the newsletter, but at reduced percentages.

I do not reveal my TSP fund allocation because I get the RevShark newsletter, and secondly because I am responsible for tracking members in the Weekly Tracker. The second reason is more important to me because tracking myself could create conflicts with others.

Congratulations on your excellent TSP performance in the tracker. Continue the good work. Your comments are insightful and valuable because they describe your thoughts in making fund transfers.

EW_ret

01-29-2007, 02:58 PM

Just thought I would enter my account talk to say, "Good investing to all, and to all good health and wealth". How is the market going to finish January? That is suppose to indicate how the rest for the year will go for the markets. It’s pretty flat so far.

My accounts are flat year to date as well because of bond performance drag. I knew I should of held off in buying bonds for past four months. My TSP account is in G and my entire retirement portfolio is at 38% stocks, 21% bonds, and 41% cash. I am trying to be patient waiting for the correction before committing more to stocks. But, it seems that downturn will never arrive.

Show-me

01-29-2007, 07:29 PM

Patients is the hard part.

GUCHI

02-06-2007, 08:38 AM

EW_ret

02-06-2007, 09:41 AM

ew
i got your message about tracking the L funds. when i went to the L funds page, i did not see where to move the slider to the current date. could you help in finding that area???

thanks for all your help

guchi

It sounds like you can find the Lifecycle funds page at TSP.gov site. It is entered by choosing the large icon, "L Lifecycle Funds", located center-left on the main TSP.gov page. Once on the L fund page, you will see the five L funds pie charts.

Choose the L fund you want by left-clicking your mouse on its pie chart (You will need to have flash player installed in your internet browser). You should see the pie chart with a flash player control panel below it. You then grab the slider button (hold down left mouse button) and slowly move slider to right until the date shows January 2007. You could also use the play/pause button to get to the current date. The date is displayed to the right of the pie chart. As you move the slider note the date moves in three month increments. Or use the play/pause button.

Hope these directions help you. Perhaps you need to install the macromedia/adobe flash player. Maybe you did not know how to find the correct Web page. Let me know if this was enough to help, or if you need additional help.

GUCHI

02-07-2007, 02:15 PM

EW
i will probably stick with the core funds and not mess with the l funds. your explanation was very helpful, and i appreciate you taking the time to show me how to go about doing it. when i multiplied my 30% towards each of the 5 funds in the L would i give you each individual % of the 5 funds because they added up to 30 % total ??? just in case i do go this way.

EW_ret

02-07-2007, 03:29 PM

You would add the L fund percentage to the funds you invested outside the L funds. For example, if you transfered 30% to L2040 and 70% to G (as of January 2007):

0.30(6.65 G+9.85 F+41.4 C+17.7 S+24.4 I)%+70%G= (70+2.00)% G, 2.95% F, 12.42% C, 5.31% S, and 7.32% I.

EW
i will probably stick with the core funds and not mess with the l funds. your explanation was very helpful, and i appreciate you taking the time to show me how to go about doing it. when i multiplied my 30% towards each of the 5 funds in the L would i give you each individual % of the 5 funds because they added up to 30 % total ??? just in case i do go this way.

EW_ret

08-23-2007, 11:30 AM

It’s been awhile since I have posted here. I now have near a moderate allocation of 58% Stocks, 28% Bonds, and 14% Cash in all my retirement accounts. My TSP account is the smallest so I move it around some. I have been buying equities in my Vanguard accounts over the past month, increasing my stock exposure by 20% while the markets were low. But, now I think the markets could go lower. The home equity fuel has dried up, and the consumer will be more careful in spending.

I am having second thoughts about my investment strategy since the economy will likely hit some new lows in coming months. I had been waiting for that 10% correction to get back to my long-term asset allocation of 60/30/10. Perhaps I should have waited longer.

EW_ret

03-31-2008, 12:10 PM

Do you have an online account at Vanguard? If not, open one and click on the Rollover link located on the front page [Roll over your retirement money. Taking a few minutes now can pay off for years to come. Learn how » (https://personal.vanguard.com/us/accounttypes/retirement/ATSMoveMoneytoIRAContent.jsp?Entry=spotlightonro)]. You can apply online, answer some questions, and decide what funds you want to invest for the rollover. Once done you get a confirmation number and all details of the account and funds for the Rollover. I recommend you print, and save all details of this confirmation page. You are also instructed to print/save a PDF file with a Vanguard forms and instructions. You can discard the Vanguard form because TSP only recognizes forms TSP-70 and TSP-77 for withdrawing your account. Or you could call the number on Vanguard homepage and talk to a Vanguard representative who will help you with account setup and all details for the rollover.

The second essential task is to complete a TSP-70 (full withdrawal), or TSP-77 (partial withdrawal), form to initiate the rollover. You must be separted, or retired, from federal employment to perform a withdrawal of your TSP. I downloaded this form from TSP and completed pertinent sections. Section VI of the form must be completed by Vanguard. I mailed this TSP form, a copy of Vanguard confirmation page, and a cover letter to Vanguard. I had Vanguard fax the completed TSP form to the TSP Service Office. Or, you can ask Vanguard to mail you the completed TSP form, and then you mail, or fax, to it the TSP service office.

I did this process two years ago to transfer a portion of my TSP account (TSP-77) to my new Vanguard Rollover IRA. It took about three weeks to complete the transfer. Vanguard took only three business days, the TSP office about two weeks, and three or four days for the check to arrive at Vanguard.

EW,I've never talked on the threads before, but caught your intended rollover to Vanguard. I'm also disenchanted since the restrictions. Can you provide info that would assist me in researching how to roll into and use Vanguard?

Steadygain

03-31-2008, 03:32 PM

RonUSPSretired

04-02-2008, 10:36 AM

Do you have an online account at Vanguard? If not, open one and click on the Rollover link located on the front page [Roll over your retirement money. Taking a few minutes now can pay off for years to come. Learn how » (https://personal.vanguard.com/us/accounttypes/retirement/ATSMoveMoneytoIRAContent.jsp?Entry=spotlightonro)]. You can apply online, answer some questions, and decide what funds you want to invest for the rollover. Once done you get a confirmation number and all details of the account and funds for the Rollover. I recommend you print, and save all details of this confirmation page. You are also instructed to print/save a PDF file with a Vanguard forms and instructions. You can discard the Vanguard form because TSP only recognizes forms TSP-70 and TSP-77 for withdrawing your account. Or you could call the number on Vanguard homepage and talk to a Vanguard representative who will help you with account setup and all details for the rollover.

The second essential task is to complete a TSP-70 (full withdrawal), or TSP-77 (partial withdrawal), form to initiate the rollover. You must be separted, or retired, from federal employment to perform a withdrawal of your TSP. I downloaded this form from TSP and completed pertinent sections. Section VI of the form must be completed by Vanguard. I mailed this TSP form, a copy of Vanguard confirmation page, and a cover letter to Vanguard. I had Vanguard fax the completed TSP form to the TSP Service Office. Or, you can ask Vanguard to mail you the completed TSP form, and then you mail, or fax, to it the TSP service office.

I did this process two years ago to transfer a portion of my TSP account (TSP-77) to my new Vanguard Rollover IRA. It took about three weeks to complete the transfer. Vanguard took only three business days, the TSP office about two weeks, and three or four days for the check to arrive at Vanguard.

Thanks so much for the info. I'll will follow up pronto. I've will have been retired 2 yrs come 6/30. Have had to take a monthly WD to cover expenses. TSP earnings were covering that nicely plus some, but no more, so need to take action. Thanks again, Ron

Steadygain

04-02-2008, 10:47 AM

WHOA!! This is MAJOR NEWS - like one the greatest STOCK MARKET CRASHES to ever occur.

If you are close to retiring (very close) then I can understand your reasoning.

Will the Auto Tracker and all the ITF information remain available or will someone else take over when you close your account?? You have been such a huge vital service to all of us.

Sorry EW_ret,
I thought you were closing your TSP account and therefore figured you'd have no reason to stay with us. Please disregard my previous post.

EW_ret

04-02-2008, 10:55 AM

I will continue to track member IFTs and fund allocations in the Automated Track I'm not leaving TSPTalk and will continue to help and do the tallys. The TSPTalk site has good resources no matter how you invest your portfolio. I was not tracked in the old WebTracker last year, or the year before, because I saw it as a possible conflict of interest. I will remove myself from the Automated Tracker because using U.S. mail to make IFTs makes no sense in this internet day and age. I will not abide by the FRTIB's concept of how we should invest our TSP account. That socialitic attitude is un-American. :mad:

WHOA!! This is MAJOR NEWS - like one the greatest STOCK MARKET CRASHES to ever occur.

If you are close to retiring (very close) then I can understand your reasoning.

Will the Auto Tracker and all the ITF information remain available or will someone else take over when you close your account?? You have been such a huge vital service to all of us.

GUCHI

04-14-2008, 11:18 AM

ew

do i still need to let u know if I do or do not make a change in my account allocations from time to time to stay current. or does it do it by itself ????

thanks
guchi

EW_ret

04-14-2008, 12:24 PM

To remain in the Automated Tracker you need to log into your account at least every three months. Ocean changed the tracker software so you do not have to restate your fund allocation if there is no change. You just log into your account and this will refresh your account and reset the "Days Since Last Login" counter.

ew

do i still need to let u know if I do or do not make a change in my account allocations from time to time to stay current. or does it do it by itself ????

thanks
guchi

GUCHI

04-14-2008, 02:00 PM

thanks !!!!!

CorMaGa34

05-15-2008, 07:19 PM

Hi, EW,

Just sent Tom a PM asking to add me back to the tracker (I PM'd him yesterday asking to be taken off the tracker as I thought I was leaving the MB). This week I started first IFT for May and for a change I see gains in my balance, so perhaps I should stay a while longer. Please let me know if you need additional info and I will send you a PM.

Thank you and appreciate the work you do. Sorry for changing my mind again, but please remember I can do that because I am a woman ;)

CorMaGa34

EW_ret

05-16-2008, 10:27 AM

Any request to be removed from the autotracker should be sent to me by PM. You remain in the Automated Tracker.

Hi, EW,

Just sent Tom a PM asking to add me back to the tracker (I PM'd him yesterday asking to be taken off the tracker as I thought I was leaving the MB). This week I started first IFT for May and for a change I see gains in my balance, so perhaps I should stay a while longer. Please let me know if you need additional info and I will send you a PM.

Thank you and appreciate the work you do. Sorry for changing my mind again, but please remember I can do that because I am a woman ;)

CorMaGa34

EW_ret

05-16-2008, 10:32 AM

There are a dozen members who have not logged into the Automated Tracker in over three months. I will be sending PMs to remind these members on the rule to log in at least every 90 days. If we do not hear from them in the next week, they will be de-listed from the Automated Tracker.

CorMaGa34

05-16-2008, 12:11 PM

Any request to be removed from the autotracker should be sent to me by PM. You remain in the Automated Tracker.

I posted today but it will not reflect exactly where I am because I made a first IFT this week that did not get recorded in the autotracker.

Thank you!

CorMaGa34

Steadygain

05-16-2008, 12:28 PM

Sorry for changing my mind again, but please remember I can do that because I am a woman ;)

CorMaGa34

EW_ret,
Does that mean that Birch and I can't change our minds :confused::blink:

That's really scary...cause it's always going back and forth:p

BlueMax

05-16-2008, 12:55 PM

EW_ret,
Does that mean that Birch and I can't change our minds :confused::blink:

That's really scary...cause it's always going back and forth:p

Steady,

Whats going back and forth? Your mind or your position?

EW_ret

05-16-2008, 01:39 PM

You can change your mind and and remain in the tracker. But if you lose your mind, you become the scarecrow in search of a brain.:nuts: You remain in the autotracker until you send a PM requesting removal. Another way to be be de-listed is by not logging into your tracker account for more than 90 days. This method is prefered by the scarecrow who forgets to log into the autotracker.
.

EW_ret,
Does that mean that Birch and I can't change our minds :confused::blink:

That's really scary...cause it's always going back and forth:p

EW_ret

09-08-2009, 09:07 AM

I can't believe how time flies when you’re retired and keeping busy. It’s been over a year since I last made an entry. I'm not tracking members anymore, but I suppose everyone knows that by now. I went back to work as a contractor on a part-time basis in August 2008. They gave me a offer I could not refuse. I'm considering retiring again since I will not be needed soon. The work I was doing is transitioning to another navy base. I am training the people and mentoring.

My retirement funds are recovering from -17% in last year’s meltdown. I have 32% in equities, 34% bonds, and 34% cash. My YTD performance is +12.5% which is good for such a low equity allocation. Most cash is in high paying CDs (4%, 5%, and 6%) and bank money market paying 1.4% to 2%. The mutual fund money markets are only paying 0.2%, a ridiculous rate.

poolman

09-08-2009, 09:10 AM