Griffin Account Talk

[Griffin]

Observations: The I fund never seems to get more then $1.50 to $1.60 ahead of the S fund before it hits a wall. I figure this probably has to do with the value of the stocks. Just like a drop in the dollar benefits the I fund, a drop in the dollar makes the S and C more attractive to foreign investors.

For the last six months the S and I fund have cycled on about an 18 week cycle from low to low with the I fund cycling about two - four days behind the S and C. As of yesterday we were at the bottom of the sine wave. When the S and I are peaking or bottoming, the S and I will occassionally move in opposite directions the day after one of the funds moves significantly more then the other and more then 1.40%. This does not happen often but is an excellent opportunity to capatilize on a rally.

Also when a fund moves 1.00% or more in a day it typically snaps one way then the other.

I was 100% S today and will be tommorrow. I will be looking for signs of the S continuing to rally and the I dropping. If this happens I will likely go 100% I tomorrow morning.

Has anybody else noticed this, or have I spent too many hours staring at spreadsheets and graphs?

[Griffin]

As I was painfully beginning to realize that the Santa Clause rally wasn’t coming at Christmas, my daughter was watching the Grinch for the first time. Halfway through, she asked if the Grinch really stole Christmas. In order to avoid traumatizing my child, I informed her that it was not real (while simultaneous admitting to myself that the rally had indeed been stolen). At the end of the show she asked me if the Grinch would steal Easter. I got a good laugh out of it (from the mouth of babes), but I think the last laugh may be on me.

I say this because, I am now thoroughly convinced that we are headed to the bottom of the channel we have been running in for the last two years and will be there within a week or two – which coincidently takes us somewhere just south of Christmas prices (and Tom gets his blessed pullback). So there’s my buy in point, after a retest of the channel lows and established support - Christmas week prices: C-Fund around 13.60, S-Fund around 16.30.

However, what is really bothering me is that such a blatant reiteration of this pattern for the third time makes a fourth iteration unlikely, simply because the cycle has been progressively tightening with each iteration like a rising wedge. If the market drops from here this would keep us from going into territory not quite charted in early 2000 – which fits the mood. But the other side is that a recession following an inverted yield curve usually takes a couple of quarters to kick in, and I still firmly believe the election mudslinging will be the harbinger of the four year curse. Also, I should not forget to mention the Iran thing is still hanging out there like a time bomb (literally?). I don’t see these factors yielding a recession for at least another 5 to 6 months – just enough time for one more cycle in this channel.

I’ve thrown in the towel for March, but it will be the FOMC meeting on the 23rd, that will make or break April. The Grinch (aka Bernake) may indeed steal Easter, and send us into a full market reversal if the fed does not make a move toward fiscal sustainability (This goes beyond Bernake – the circus down in DC needs to turn down the music – and listen to themselves for a few minutes).

[Birchtree]

Griffin,

This trading range (2 years base over base) will more than likely turn out to be just that, a basing pattern setting the foundation for the next price advance. I'll take another 3000 points in the Dow please.

Dennis

[Griffin]

Birch,

I really don’t think your going to get your 3K onto the DOW anytime soon. Besides, why pay tomorrow’s prices to invest today? My belief is keep it steady with just enough bumps to make it entertaining and profitable for the wise investor.

My belief is that we have a big set back coming sometime this year. Anybody can get on the calendar, look at the market reports and say all’s well on the USS Bush. But those numbers don’t tell the story anymore then the bottom line of a corporation is a measure of it’s health.

[Griffin]

First a correction, the FOMC meeting is the 27/28th.

The buying opportunity created by the livedoor incident and the subsequent upgrades to the Nikkei's trading system are giving it a boost, along with a handful of miscellaneous news. This is throwing it off kilter with the rest of the world's markets, but that will equalize within the next couple of days. The next rally off the S&P 1270 line will likely be short, too short for us. You might get one or two days at best to play the top. The Nikkei equalizing with the rest of world and the end of this next rally will likely come together and the result could be a very intense sell off - taking us to around the S&P 1250 line with downward momentum.

Still playing it safe in the G.

[Griffin]

I'm real skeptical about this rally, but I have decided to grab a piece of it. My thoughts are that the Japanesse market may make a break above the trend and give the global market a boost. I am going with US stocks because of the delay (and I am through with trying to play the I-Fund on the short term). I will be watching to see if the Nikkei 300 can hit 332+. I expect to back out again by Wednesday or Thursday unless a breakout occurs.:notrust:

[Griffin]

The Japanesse miracle has been able to sustain it's growth producing some impressive gains, but it does not seem to have the strength it needs to carry the Nikkei 300 to the 332+ level. It's struggle to get there has held this rally longer then I thought would have been possible. However, while it's lonely at the top, misery likes company, to quote the animals:

Well, there is a house in New Orleans
They call the Rising Sun
And it's been the ruin of many a poor boy
And God I know I'm one

I'm still shy of the I-fund (the delay of being able to react to the Japanesse market makes me uncomfortable) so I'm still playing it safe in the G.

[Griffin]

Been languishing in the F-fund this past week while I was on vacation. Missed a hell of an opportunity and am slipping in the tsp talk standings. My goal is always to meet or beat the best performing fund each year. I was making headway two weeks ago but I am behind the power curve now. Time to get aggresssive again.

As much as the I-fund annoys me, I may have to pony up, to meet my goal. I would still like to see a solid pullback just for sanity's sake, but if the market is going to run amuck then I guess I am going to have to throw caution to the wind and roll with it - I expect to get back into stocks soon :nuts:

[Griffin]

Over the past week, I made a solid play into stocks but I jumped the gun a day early. I have a tendancy to move early or I would probably have a 10+% YTD instead of an 8.5+%. Tempering the emotional response associated with the anxiety of the delay is tough for me, however, I have only been at this market timing business about a year but I think I'm getting the hang of it, thanks to a few good books and a lot insight from the folks at this sight.

Anyway, lately I have been hanging around the I and the F - I seem to have a love/hate relationship with them. I am hoping to make some small gains in the F over the next two days before stocks hit the bottom of the channel and start our next cycle up.

I no longer think we are going to get a solid pullback anytime soon - although I will approach May very cautiously. I believe we are going to run this channel until we get a full reversal. It seems to me that the previous two year pattern has changed and we have a new behavior emerging - somewhere between obessive/compulsive and psychotic/skittish - oh well, when in Rome......

[mlk_man]

oh well, when in Rome......

You know they're touring again...............:D

http://www.myspace.com/wheninrome

[Griffin]

M_M

that is too funny!

I didn't like those jokers when I was in college and I am not about to start now. Only goes to show that we will always be haunted by our past.....kind of like today's economics....:D

[mlk_man]

I still have my skinny leather ties.....................:p

[Griffin]

The world is about to explode:sick:
Stay away from stocks:sick:

...I'm going 100% I:D

[Griffin]

I wanted to tie together a couple of comments I made today between my account and the playing the I-fund thread.

Ultimately, I am very bullish about the I fund and basically am set to go into a buy and hold mode. However, I am going 100% G on Monday night. This is not a short term attempt to play whip action.

My reason for making this safety play has to do with the fact that I have duty with the military for the next few days and will be out of the loop. I expect the Japanesse bulls to lead the way on Monday to some great returns. But a reverse dead cat bounce coupled with a "Whacky Bernake" FOMC meeting may result in serious irreversible damage. Barring the start of a crippling panic sell off and market reversal, I will jump back in the I on Tuesday.

I am starting to buy into the 1995 theory. However, I also sense this market is searching for a catalyst to initiate a major breakdown, and the wrong words at the right time from Bernake might be the ticket given what's gone on the past week or so. If it wasn't for the markets earlier Pavlovian response's to Bernake comments, I wouldn't give him that much credit.

[richrob3]

I havenot been on for a while. But I thought I would put in my 2 cents. I have reallocated my old monies and new monies. I am now 20% C, 40% S and 40% I. I have seen a dramatic growth in my TSP since doing so, what does everyone think? Still have about 7 yrs. till mandatory retirement. I really don't day trade, cause my attitude is I'm in it for the long haul. But I do adjust things occassionally. Take care everyone I hope you all make LOTS and LOTS of $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$!

[Spartan]

Factored into the dollar is a 100% chance that there will be a rate hike on tuesday. What happens if he doesn't hike at all? The dollar drops like a rock. The US markets are stagnating, today was the first breakaway in a while. The numbers arent helping the hikes. We will see.

[Griffin]

Apparently, I have problems reading a calendar, I was thinking the FOMC meeting was today. I am still in the G 100% and intend to stay put. I am looking for sharp downward movement on high volume on Wednesday. Anything else and I will be back in the I Thursday night to start a buy and hold strategy.

[Fivetears]

Me 2. :) Sidelined for way too long.

[Griffin]

Me 2. :) Sidelined for way too long.

Fivetears,

Welcome back. Are you going to reclaim your title as the poster child for the I-Fund?

[Griffin]

I'm running out of air holding my breath - time to breath................so what to do? When I jumped to the G last week, I was worried about the ANTICIPATION of the Fed (coupled with a pullback) leading the market to open low and keep on dropping on steadily gaining volume....that has not happend. So I'm resolved to get back in the I-fund. However, the last two meetings have lead to a week long consolidation. Penny day is coming tonight or tomorrow. I dread missed gains more then losses. I'm going to sit in the G for now and wait out the initial move - if it breaks to the upside, I'll get back in the I tomorrow and suck up any whip action, if it breaks down, I will give one, maybe two days top, barring something traumatic. Going long in the I.

We can put a bullet in al qaeda.....inflation is the real enemy.....must not lose ground:D .

[Griffin]

Back to making money - all in the I-fund, this plane is set to autopilot.:D

[Griffin]

Tom's analysis of the US Dollar index is fairly compelling. I am going to stick to my plan with the I-Fund, but if the reverse head and shoulders holds I will dump to the S-Fund.

Tom, keep us informed.

[Griffin]

I ended up punching to the G from the I. This was based in a large part on a conviction that if the market seemed ready to breakdown from the 6 month trading channel, I would get out. I would really like to see some strength in the Japanesse market before buying back in, but I may jump back in very soon, depending on the dollar I may go domestic.

[Griffin]

I ended up punching to the G from the I. This was based in a large part on a conviction that if the market seemed ready to breakdown from the 6 month trading channel, I would get out. I would really like to see some strength in the Japanesse market before buying back in, but I may jump back in very soon, depending on the dollar I may go domestic.

Did not make the deadline for the IFT, cancelled this transfer altogether.

[FundSurfer]

Have to admit it was a tough call for me as well at the deadline. In the end I decided to give it another day. The dollar index looked like dollar was being sold. Looks like we may be rewarded tommorrow. If this bounce continues your missing the deadline will have been lucky.

[Griffin]

Yeah, I guess I got a little of that cheapshot luck after all. With that said, we will get clobbered tomorrow :)

[Fivetears]

Fivetears,

Welcome back. Are you going to reclaim your title as the poster child for the I-Fund?That was good! :D LMAO
Just about ready.

[Fivetears]

That was good! :D LMAO
Just about ready.On second thought... :sick:

[Griffin]

On second thought... :sick:

Yeah, I'm kind of feeling the same way. It was inevitable that the I-fund would eventually puke - but I was hoping that I could capitalize on another month or two of it running amuck. I am no longer bullish on the I-fund for the short, but I still like it for the long run.

I'm taking a lesson from my fraternity days. We used to inaugerate our new brethren with a case race....teams of two to finish off a case of ponies. Typically the drinking lasted about a half an hour. The puking lasted another half an hour, a few hours to recover....and since we did this in the afternoon, we had a party later that night.

Still waiting for the puking to finish...a couple weeks of rest and hopefully the party will start.

[Fivetears]

Yeah, I'm kind of feeling the same way. It was inevitable that the I-fund would eventually puke - but I was hoping that I could capitalize on another month or two of it running amuck. I am no longer bullish on the I-fund for the short, but I still like it for the long run.

I'm taking a lesson from my fraternity days. We used to inaugerate our new brethren with a case race....teams of two to finish off a case of ponies. Typically the drinking lasted about a half an hour. The puking lasted another half an hour, a few hours to recover....and since we did this in the afternoon, we had a party later that night.

Still waiting for the puking to finish...a couple weeks of rest and hopefully the party will start.I read earlier this year (late last year) the I was slated to spin an 18% for 2006; ante untouched end-to-end. There's still nearly eight months left to pan this out of the river.

[Griffin]

I read earlier this year (late last year) the I was slated to spin an 18% for 2006; ante untouched end-to-end. There's still nearly eight months left to pan this out of the river.

Absolutely, I would love to pull over 18% for the year.

My overall strategy is to meet or beat the best performing fund each year. This would have yielded an annual average of 19% over the last ten years. I honestly don't expect to meet this. I would be thrilled to pull 13-14%.

Hell, 20 year's from now, that just might give me a shot at J-Lo:D (Sloppy....um..17th's....but who's counting?)

[Griffin]

It has been about 7 months since these support levels have been tested. That's a relatively long time. Historically, they were being tested about every 5 months with step over step action. The tight channel of these past months leads me to believe that there is not a whole lot of strength left in them. Who in their right mind would have stops in place at these levels given the action of the last 7 months? All buying activity will be coming from the old fashioned way. That just does not generate the surge of buying activity around whole numbers at easily chartable levels to stop this ship from sinking. It may take some real sweet news to turn things around

I suspect we still have approximately 3% worth of losses to go. Then we will have to ask the $100,000.00 dollar question: Is this the start of a market reversal? I'm willing to miss a % or two, to find out the safe way.

Currently, looking for a successful retest of the lows

[Fivetears]

I believe you have made a very wise decision, Griffin. If this uncharted set of river rapids leads us all to the USD waterfall many have spoke of coming... at least we'll have the $6.00 it's gonna take to buy some sliced American cheese.

[Griffin]

I believe you have made a very wise decision, Griffin. If this uncharted set of river rapids leads us all to the USD waterfall many have spoke of coming... at least we'll have the $6.00 it's gonna take to buy some sliced American cheese.

Fivetears, don't take it too seriously, in the end it's all monopoly money. Be proud of the fact that you are a member of the most resiliant, most adaptable people on this planet.

I may be fooling myself when I say this, but I have FAITH that ultimately it will all work out in the end, because were Americans and we always find a way. :)

Keep your chin up and remember that it is all just a big game and he who dies with the most toys wins :D

[Griffin]

Back on the 16th in the "playing the I fund" thread, I mentioned that I think the market may break away from the patterns of the past 2-3 years. If that does not happen and the pattern continues, it is reasonable to expect this rally to fail shortly and drop some more, in which case I am still open to the possiblity that it will drop out of that channel. However, if this is a new bottom and it is retested a few days from now, I will probably move back into stocks. If the market continues to rally from here, I am not going to let the market get to far away from me before I jump in. This is a lot of if - then's and really doesn't say much - other then I am waiting on a clearer picture before I pull the trigger.

Icharo posted a good article talking about strengthing in the asian currencies and I don't want to forget Tom's analysis about the reverse head and shoulders pattern developing in the dollar index. So a rat race may begin among the major currencies. Such a development will make it difficult to determine the smarter play between the S and I funds. I am considering breaking from my traditional pattern of single fund to a 50/50 split until a clear winner presents itself.

[Griffin]

Depending on what index your looking at, the market is bumping it's head on Thursdays (and Friday's - for the internationals) resistance level. I would like to see this resistance turn support before moving in.

[Griffin]

Folks,

I have been war-gaming my strategy for coming out of this pullback. The big question on my mind was which fund was most likely to give up the best return. What I did was take the last three major pullbacks (6 August 04, 15 April 05, and 14 October 05) as my starting point and graphed the return to date of the funds following these pullbacks.

An amazingly obvious pattern presented itself. The S fund came out the gate as the top performer, followed by the C fund with the I fund coming in last (pitifully last in two out of three cases). I have attached an excel spreadsheet that shows these graphs. Keep in mind the Y axis is return to date, not fund price.

Further analysis revealed another striking pattern. While the S-fund had the highest growth rate initially, after about a month to two months, as the S-fund was leveling off going into the first correction, the I-fund then took off coming out of that correction.

So, here’s my strategy. Come out the gate 100% S, when it gets toppy, IFT to the G and wait for the correction to bottom, then IFT into the I-fund. This strategy would have yielded approximately 16 to 18% within the following 3 months in all three instances, if played perfectly.

One note: you will probably have to download the spreadsheet for the tabs to work properly.

[FundSurfer]

I would have figured that I-fund would have outperformed after the last down turn. Interesting.

[Wheels]

So, here’s my strategy. Come out the gate 100% S

When are you planning to make this initial move.

Dave
<><

[Griffin]

Dave,

I was waiting for the S&P to drop below 1250 and the DWCP to approach 555. But, I think this may be as low as it is going to go. If these indexs bounce off the support levels from Monday, I'm in. Possibly today.

[Griffin]

Interesting that today immediately opened with a retest of Monday's lows. I thinking that I've seen all I need to justify getting back in. Assuming nothing weird happens between now and noon, I will be moving 100% into the S-Fund around 1130.

[Wheels]

Interesting that today immediately opened with a retest of Monday's lows. I thinking that I've seen all I need to justify getting back in. Assuming nothing weird happens between now and noon, I will be moving 100% into the S-Fund around 1130.

I am getting an itchy trigger finger to be sure. And I think I agree with you as far as choosing the S fund as my vehicle for getting back in. Now to pick the day. Had I been near a computer before noon today I might have pulled that trigger. Maybe tomorrow. Take note anyone who reads this, just my saying that may cause a three percent rally tomorrow.

Dave
<><

[Griffin]

Dave,

I was waiting for the S&P to drop below 1250 and the DWCP to approach 555. But, I think this may be as low as it is going to go. If these indexs bounce off the support levels from Monday, I'm in. Possibly today.

You and I have the same power, I wrote this and look what happend:D

[Wheels]

just my saying that may cause a three percent rally tomorrow.

Dave
<><

Your welcome Griffin. Not quite 3 percent but a nice start.

Dave
<><

[Griffin]

Thank you,

Predict another big rally, please:D

[Griffin]

The topic’s dominating the conversations over the next week are going to focus on a retest of the lows and the possibility of a step down (if a drop occurs). The most likely resistance point for the DWCP is at 585 (I am currently 100% S-fund). Were currently 2.2% away from that point so we probably have a couple of days before this resistance becomes relevant. What I do is always based on what I decide my behavior should be, I think of behavior in terms of aggressiveness.

I think a reasonable assumption is that the economy is going to slowdown for a few quarters, so I am open to the concept that this is the end of the channel of the past three years, and the eventual development of a lower growth rate channel. However, the critical points of the last year will still play out on the development of the market trends over the next six months or so. I say this, because I see May’s highs holding and the possibility of lower new lows. I actually prefer this scenario to the run away markets of the past few months, simply because, I would prefer to make my gains through market timing rather then paying tomorrow’s prices, today in a very aggressive buy and hold strategy – which was where I was at earlier this month.

I break aggressive into three components, Volatility – the need to shift behavioral gears quickly, Urgency – the need to keep up with the market and Risk – exposure to losses. These all go hand in hand depending on the growth rate of the market over the intermediate term (a few months). The highest level of aggressiveness is buy and hold. Short of that, a very aggressive behavior means I am more willing to expose myself to risk in order to compensate for a higher urgency – with the understanding that volatility goes way up. So I am more likely to do things like: ride a top, take some minor losses, buy a dip without a retest etc…but I am also more willing to shift to a capital preservation mode, but only if there is a reason – not speculation.

What I don’t like to talk about is caution. I am always cautious. Caution is not the opposite of aggressive, in fact the more aggressive I get the more “Cautious” I get. I occasionally mention behavior and emotional control. I see caution as an emotional response – not useful for making judgements and it does not factor into my behavior.

So getting back to the first paragraph, I am setting my behavior at a moderate aggressiveness, coming out of this drop. Meaning, more then likely I will go into capital preservation mode if the market bumps up against the 585 resistance level a couple of times. I still plan to stick to my plan from a few days ago of working the S for the next month or so with a shift to the I – especially if the currency trends suggest this, at a later point following a correction. Right now, I am not sure if I bought the bottom and if we are on the way out.

[Griffin]

On Friday, the DWCP got above 575 and skipped along the surface. I interpreted that as a positive action, expecting the 575 level to act as a springboard towards 585. If the market had continued the bounce to 585, I would have tried to play the action (and possibly will when the time comes –in part, it depends on how long this lasts). Post holiday blues are weighing in on today’s pre-market, and I have gotten out of the business of trying to play the day to day onsies/twosies. It looks like the majority of the total loses will be dished out today, starting approximately .50% in the red and probably go down from there. The one exception to this is if the market comes back to 575 and can’t quite get on top of it. That is the only scenario in which I see a possible sell and buy the dip for a gain of two or more percent. More then likely, I will ride this retest out. I feel comfortable that I got the bottom on the first try, and will hold on (unless I see the DWCP drop below 553). The good news is that if the markets gyrate in these ranges for a few more days, the more likely it will be to make a full recovery later.

[Griffin]

The Damage is done, DWCP down 1.00%, no point in missing the bounce by getting out now

[Birchtree]

Buy in May and stay to play. Good luck to courage.

Dennis

[Griffin]

Buy in May and stay to play. Good luck to courage.

Dennis

Dennis,

I'm sure your familiar with the phrase "plan your fight, fight your plan" - I don't like to make moves unless I have a reason.

Today's action is typical at the bottom. Five weeks from now, people will be kicking themselves for not buying the bottom, not because they didn't play the whip.

I'm not saying that last Wednesday was the bottom for sure, but I have no reason to believe otherwise.............yet:D

[Griffin]

I figured I would repost this again since the last few days seem to have created some frustration and confusion.

It is a graph that compares the recovery of the three stock funds following last three major pull backs, and I have also added a graph to track the current recovery.

[Griffin]

I am always amazed during these big moves, between how quickly I go from searching for a bottom to planning for a top. I want to see the DWCP top 580 before, I feel comfortable with taking the position that the recovery is on (the lower blue line). That could be tomorrow, what a ride this week has been! These recoveries seem so innocuous in hindsight, but they are so damn tricky when your in the middle of them.

Once above 580, the transition to 585 should be relatively quick (to the green line). The convergence of the green line and the upper blue line suckered a lot of folks in on the way down. I expect a rough ride from 585 to 590, probably several days off chop through this area and I would not be surprised if we see a reversal. Once again these lines will have to transition from resistance to support. Depending on how long this takes and what direction we come out of it in will effect the specific target numbers for the next move. It will be in this time frame that I start looking at my transition to the I-Fund. I don’t see the DWCP breaking through the orange line, given the projected economic slowdown.

I am in a moderately aggressive mode right now and I probably will not ride the chop for more then a day or two. I am debating about using the F-fund as my safe have while the 585-590 mess sorts out, but as I said back on the 23rd, the currency rat race is heating up, especially now that the EU is throwing their hat and kitchen sink into it.

[Griffin]

Looks like an opportunity has developed. When I thought the DWCP would pop above 585, I was think trading days, not hours. There is not enough momentum to hold on at this level. The fact that the G will probably pay on Monday is the icing on the cake. Going 100% G

[Griffin]

I am sitting in the G, but will move back into stocks regardless of what the market does today. So the only question is, where?

The I-Fund got a 1.22% negative fair valuation last night, Nikkei is down 1.81%, Europe is down across the board about 1.0% and the foreign currencies are weakening against the dollar. If the market goes straight into recovery, Europe will pick up some of the positive action before close. The net result would be something close to no movement in the I. This assumes the FV covers today’s negative action. This creates an excellent buy in point to play the lag. Some solid days of positive action in the foreign market and foreign currencies will likely strip away any gains made by the dollar over the following day or two.

Historically, the S-fund out performs the I-fund during the early weeks of these recoveries – and has been following that pattern since the original low on 24 May. My strategy calls to play the S-fund until the first correction after a solid recovery period, with a pause in the G and subsequently moving to the I.

If the market drops from here, the delay until today’s IFT happens will negate the lag time advantage for the I-fund and may actually set up an opportunity to play the lag at a later date (near the next top).

In a nut shell, if today’s action opens positive, I will go to the I for a couple of days, otherwise I will move straight into the S.

[Wheels]

Hey Griffin. Were you the one who was posting the TSPTalk money flow figures for a few days? I really liked those. Did it get to labor intensive right away?

Dave
<><

[Griffin]

Hey Griffin. Were you the one who was posting the TSPTalk money flow figures for a few days? I really liked those. Did it get to labor intensive right away?

Dave
<><

Dave,

I was doing the money flow on the Bull Pen thread and I would like to keep at it. Howevwer, I am limited in the time I have access to the internet so it's going to be sporadic at best over the next month at a minimum. The most time intensive part of it is gathering the data. Feel free to throw it out there. All I did was add up the allocations each day and crank it through an average.

[vectorman]

I found your S fund remark in the Bullpen interesting. But I see with the S fund being up 5 days in a row ( if today holds up) for you to be more risk than reward for tuesday. It's hard to stay put after you've been SSSnake bit before.:cheesy: The over all trend is now up, with many dips, I've learned in the past from Tom if your bullish long, sometimes it nice to keep a little in stocks, that way if it does goes up you still get part of the rally ( if there is one ) and if the market goes down your loss is small during the time the market recovers.

[Griffin]

I found your S fund remark in the Bullpen interesting. But I see with the S fund being up 5 days in a row ( if today holds up) for you to be more risk than reward for tuesday. It's hard to stay put after you've been SSSnake bit before.:cheesy: The over all trend is now up, with many dips, I've learned in the past from Tom if your bullish long, sometimes it nice to keep a little in stocks, that way if it does goes up you still get part of the rally ( if there is one ) and if the market goes down your loss is small during the time the market recovers.

If you follow Rokids tally, you will see I am one of the few single fund slingers. I don't dollar cost average, because I find it easier to keep track of my position if it's all or nothing. Yeah, when I screw up, it really hurts, but overall, I tend to be right more often then I'm wrong, so it all evens out in the end.

You mention risk versus reward, go to post #46 in this thread, this is how I look at it:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2455&page=4

[pyriel]

Good call on the s fund within the last 2 days... P

[sugarandspice]

Dudette, I'm just curious as to why you consider good management = greed. This isn't "Wall Street" - none of us are squeezing the life out of the poor and underpriviliged.

The reason I ask is I don't think of myself as a greedy person, in fact, I'm actually happier by the fact that I don't feel the need to drive a Porsche and live in a 4000 sq ft home (and neither does my wife, which is probably why I'm really happy about it :D ).

PS: Mrs Ravenclaw :nuts: - I don't want to hijack Dave's thread any further, but I do want to hear this....get back to me elsewhere.

Good management? Is making an IFT that is solely based on a tally of top performers good management? If it is then fine, but I don't believe it is. I never look at what top people are doing and just do that. The term "good management" is probably the (hor)crux of this.
And as for the Porsche or the house, how does that equate to greed? I dont make the connection at all.
To me greed would be the desire to acquire material wealth without sound strategy. Accumulation with a good plan is perfectly fine but I think when greed enters then things suffer. Like balances....TSP and soul. You must keep a soul balance or life around you will deteriorate i.e. family, work, TSP.
And if it deviates from what you know then you should determine the reason for the deviation.

You don't want to be hit by Maxwell's Silver Hammer.

[pyriel]

Good management? Is making an IFT that is solely based on a tally of top performers good management? If it is then fine, but I don't believe it is.

People have different skills which means that they may be good with one thing but requires help with others. I agree that solely relying on top performers might not be the best management of their funds but for some, it might be the best thing they may have.


To me greed would be the desire to acquire material wealth without sound strategy.

I concur and I also look at greed as a desire to acquire wealth without a requirement for it. I believe that we are all here because we want to help each other and to accumulate wealth so we can retire comfortably (to me that is a requirement). Just by being here alone to me is already a sound strategy vs. those majority who has no idea on what goes on with their TSP and also those who are not even contributing to it.


Accumulation with a good plan is perfectly fine but I think when greed enters then things suffer. Like balances....TSP and soul. You must keep a soul balance or life around you will deteriorate i.e. family, work, TSP.
And if it deviates from what you know then you should determine the reason for the deviation.

I like your thinking about balances. I believe that sometime we lose focus on what we are doing here and we become so involve on what people are saying that it affects our relationship with one another. I like it here. I've learned alot and continue to learn. I just hope that everyone continue to share.

Pyriel
PS... Now how do you make a border out of someones post? ;-)
bracket,quote=name,bracket..........bracket,/quote,bracket

[Griffin]

I am not even going to attempt nesting quotes in all of this. Let me first start by saying I completely exhausted my knowledge of the Harry Potter series with the Ravenclaw comment (I have seen all the movies, but never read the books....my wife has though....and every movie comes complete with a running dialogue.....yeah....:blink: )

Am I getting this right:

It's good to accumulate wealth using methods based upon one's skills, knowledge and experience, but the accumulation of wealth through luck is reckless greed?

I can live with that definition and it clarifies some of the things you've said. think about this: I could hire someone to manage my retirement fund, or for free, I could amalgamate a little data from this site and let that be my management technique. I often look at what other folks are doing and adjust my actions accordingly. I don't see that as hedging a bet (gambling), it is simply leaning on the success of others. I'm willing to bet that those that consistently are in the top ten, collectively spend a tremendous amount of time sifting through data and doing analysis which all culminates in an IFT. While we may be blind to the research, we know it's occurring, no one is successful through guessing.....including you. So, I would not characterize the previously proposed method as greed.

PS....There are 115,000 foreclosures on the market right now....I bet you some of them are those 4000 sq ft mansions.....hmmmmmmmm......ooops got to go......three hours to powerball, better start sorting my tickets :D

[Show-me]

LUV THE POWERBALL!!!

[Wheels]

First to Griffin. Excellent one day move out of the S and into the I. I fund posted .722% today while the S is currently down almost as much (with 45 minutes to go).

Second. As far as watching the leaders and emulating them. That might have been the way to go today. 4 of the top 6 people in the tally where in the I today. A fifth was partially in the I. Then there was me, stubbornly clinging to the S and getting kicked in the teeth for it.

[FundSurfer]

First to Griffin. Excellent one day move out of the S and into the I. I fund posted .722% today while the S is currently down almost as much (with 45 minutes to go).


It will be interesting to see if the EAFE holds onto the gains tommorrow.

[Griffin]

It will be interesting to see if the EAFE holds onto the gains tommorrow.

Dave - thank you.

FS - If we get stripped of the gains through FV tonight, I may hang out in the I through Monday. As you mentioned earlier - the foreign markets are riding low in their channels - I really do not see a catastrophe developing here.

This is totally a gut feeling and has no basis in reality but....my crusty balls tell me - the CPI data is going to come out tomorrow and folks are going to realize we are NOT headed for a recession, then the Fed is going to throw us a rate hike, and folks are going to realize that the economy is still trucking along, too fast. I don't want to get all Birchtree here, but in my gut, I feel we are headed for a rally that leaves us a solid 2-3% over May's highs - despite the common logic you would hold for the CPI and the Fed.

[sugarandspice]

I am not even going to attempt nesting quotes in all of this. Let me first start by saying I completely exhausted my knowledge of the Harry Potter series with the Ravenclaw comment (I have seen all the movies, but never read the books....my wife has though....and every movie comes complete with a running dialogue.....yeah....:blink: )

Ok see Lord Voldemort has split his soul into seven pieces and sealed each piece with an object. This object is known as a horcrux. Harry must find each horcrux and destroy it in order to destroy Voldemort. The sorcerors stone and the Diary of Tom Riddle were both horcruxes. Also Dumbledore destroyed a ring belonging to the founder of Slytherin's house which was also a horcrux. 4 more to go but they are not defined as of yet. I know I could have saved it. I thought it would irritate you though. Sorry.



Am I getting this right:

It's good to accumulate wealth using methods based upon one's skills, knowledge and experience, but the accumulation of wealth through luck is reckless greed?

Luck is good. Unsound methods are not good. If you get lucky with them then more power to you, but they will burn you in the long run and what would be the reason for using them? Probably like my FV bail in/out conspiracy theory.

[Griffin]

......I thought it would irritate you though. Sorry.

Luck is good. Unsound methods are not good. If you get lucky with them then more power to you, but they will burn you in the long run and what would be the reason for using them? Probably like my FV bail in/out conspiracy theory.
Do I detect some hostility? :D It was not my intention to antagonize you but it does bother me to think that folks might interpret our actions as being motivated by greed....this has been something that has been rolling around in my mind ever since Tom talked about going on that DC radio show.

Thanks for the Harry Potter update. I'll be sure to stun my wife with that little tidbit when the moment presents itself.

[sugarandspice]

No hostility at all. I didn't know if the Potter diatribe would go over well with you. It is factual though. And just for the record for you and everyone else that reads this, if it ever seems like I am mad or hostile it is simply a misunderstanding. No one here can make me mad or upset by anything they say. You are all just hallucinations in my never-ending mushroom ingesting fantasy world. So if you choose to believe your real...well then that's your problem.

[Griffin]

......hallucinations in my never-ending mushroom ingesting fantasy world......

One pill makes you larger,
And one pill makes you small,
And the ones that mother gives you,
Don’t do anything at all.
Go ask Alice,
When she’s ten feet tall.

And if you go chasing rabbits,
And you know you’re going to fall,
Tell’em a hookah smoking caterpillar,
Has given you the call.
Call Alice,
When she was just as small.

When the men on the chessboard,
Get up and tell you where to go,
And you’ve just had some kind of mushroom,
And your mind is moving low.
Go ask Alice,
I think she’ll know.

When logic and proportion,
Have fallen softly dead,
And the White Knight is talking backwards,
And the Red Queen’s “off with her head!”
Remember what the Dormouse said.
Feed your head, Feed your head!

[nnuut]

The "I" helped me some today, but I got in one day late!!!! It seems that is the way it works lately, big gains for 1 or 2 days and down she goes, hard to time with all the unknowns. Now, I'm sure that everyone knows that GREED should be held in a different perspective for a POAss than for a big money man. Being a PoAss myself Greed is GOOD, for Mr. Gates and such it may be excessive but for me it is respectable and admired by my peers, I would think. What is the big deal, we are all here to make as much money as we can, after you get it give it to charity if you feel guilty, or better to me!:D DUH!!!!:notrust:

[Griffin]

LUV THE POWERBALL!!!

Once again it did not luv me back :nuts:

[The_Technician]

The "I" helped me some today, but I got in one day late!!!! It seems that is the way it works lately, big gains for 1 or 2 days and down she goes, hard to time with all the unknowns. Now, I'm sure that everyone knows that GREED should be held in a different perspective for a POAss than for a big money man. Being a PoAss myself Greed is GOOD, for Mr. Gates and such it may be excessive but for me it is respectable and admired by my peers, I would think. What is the big deal, we are all here to make as much money as we can, after you get it give it to charity if you feel guilty, or better to me!:D DUH!!!!:notrust:

don't know about u Nnutt, but I's one GREEDY SOB, a fair one thou....it's ok if u greedy too!!!!:nuts: :blink:

[sugarandspice]

One pill makes you larger,
And one pill makes you small,
And the ones that mother gives you,
Don’t do anything at all.
Go ask Alice,
When she’s ten feet tall.

And if you go chasing rabbits,
And you know you’re going to fall,
Tell’em a hookah smoking caterpillar,
Has given you the call.
Call Alice,
When she was just as small.

When the men on the chessboard,
Get up and tell you where to go,
And you’ve just had some kind of mushroom,
And your mind is moving low.
Go ask Alice,
I think she’ll know.

When logic and proportion,
Have fallen softly dead,
And the White Knight is talking backwards,
And the Red Queen’s “off with her head!”
Remember what the Dormouse said.
Feed your head, Feed your head!

Congratulations Griffin, You have discovered Sugar's investment strategy.

[Griffin]

Congratulations Griffin, You have discovered Sugar's investment strategy.

considering the high cost of illegal psychtropic drugs - it's a circular win-win strategy.

If only we did not get whiz-quizzed on a regular basis, I might join you :D ....only twenty more years to go!

On a different note, I am taking a one day hop to the G given the post quadruple witching day history.

[sugarandspice]

If only we did not get whiz-quizzed on a regular basis, I might join you :D ....only twenty more years to go!



My deterrent to giving the warm apple cider donations is always turn the sample in with a little bit on the OUTSIDE of the container. You can even use water if you want. Wash your hands before the test but dont dry completely. If you can make a drip hold on the bottom of the cup when you turn it in, the image of that will burn in their memory forever. The key is to have a wet container when you turn it in. Works wonders.

[Griffin]

My deterrent to giving the warm apple cider donations is always turn the sample in with a little bit on the OUTSIDE of the container. You can even use water if you want. Wash your hands before the test but dont dry completely. If you can make a drip hold on the bottom of the cup when you turn it in, the image of that will burn in their memory forever. The key is to have a wet container when you turn it in. Works wonders.

Thanks for the tip, however, I recommend only one vice at a time, and I'm already way over that quota: I'll stick to my vodka martini's, Vegas, stogies and the ocassional two-step with some eye candy. I'm already pressing my luck :D

[mlk_man]

I guess techy is gonna have to hang onto that I fund for a couple days if he wants his "14th straight" trade without a loss huh?

BTW, the tracker doesn't say 13 in a row...........

Birchy hasn't a had a losing trade all year...............go BIRCHY!!! :p

[Wheels]

BTW Griffin, nice move into the F. You must have sensed me nipping at your heels.

[Griffin]

BTW Griffin, nice move into the F. You must have sensed me nipping at your heels.

Dave, I have to pass some credit on to fundsurfer, he's the one that got me looking at the ten year note (^TNX at yahoo finance) and the inverse relationship between the two. Also, I followed Milk's lead on that one.

However, I got tied up in a meeting all day and missed the opportunity to make a move - so now I'm stuck there until tomorrow.


Griffin:
What make the F attractive? What are you seeing?
Thanks - Dell

Dell, the TNX made a nice move and for reason's mentioned above that is why I moved to the F. I forget where I mentioned it, but the F will throw out a bone every now and then. It is unpredictable but in general follow the ^AGG at Yahoo, if you seeing it drop very quickly (-.30%), and you have no other better place to be, it can be good for a penny or two.

[dell]

Griffin, et al:

Thank you for the education.

Dell

[ChemEng]

Looks like we made a pretty good move going 100% into I yesterday as I is setting up to be an OUTSTANDING day today. Now just got to figure out the right time to exit. Im leaning towards getting out of I today, but not certain yet as the markets havent opened. :) Any thoughts on how you are going to play it Griffin?

[Griffin]

Looks like we made a pretty good move going 100% into I yesterday as I is setting up to be an OUTSTANDING day today. Now just got to figure out the right time to exit. Im leaning towards getting out of I today, but not certain yet as the markets havent opened. :) Any thoughts on how you are going to play it Griffin?

More then likely, yesterday's 1% FV will get removed from today's gains, so let's say the EAFE ends up with 1.5% gain for the day....we will only see about 0.5% of it in the I-fund. If they don't correct today, they will definitely do it by tomorrow. They only way I see them NOT correcting tonight, is if the US market continues to rally through the last half of the trading day. Of course if that happens, then the OSMs will likely follow suit again tomorrow. There is room for both the FTSE and Nikkei 300 to do this if they pattern off of the S&P500.

As much as we all would love to pull off a super slick FV dodge and slip into the S for tomorrow, the chances of not getting hit by the FV and the DWCP continuing to rally significantly for a third day in a row (assuming today is another big rally) are very slim. What would probably happen is you would get hit by the FV tonight, pick up .5% (guesstimate) return and walk into the S as it bounces off the top of it's channel.

What I do see as a better strategy is to sit tight in the I and suck up the FV. Lately the OSMs have been reacting to the US market (some will tell you that is always the case, but I believe that the internationals do go through periods were they are leading the US market). So once we hit the top, switch into the Domestic market and try to catch the international delay on the next hike. Think of this strategy like having been in the S yesterday and switching to the I tonight. The goal is to get ahead of the next Domestic rally.

Anyway you decide to play it, stay in stocks until this sucker starts to implode. Don't try to incorporate capital preservation. In hindsight, this should have been the strategy through all of September which is the same conclusion I came to in April about the first half of the year. I've been kicking my own butt for not following that lesson learned. I even mentioned this in several other comments in the past month, but I got cocky after pulling a 5+% return in August.

[Show-me]

You sound like me. heehee.

I am struggling with the same dilemma on the FV. I am leaning toward pulling 50% out today and trying to fudge the FV. My original entry point was not perfect but better than I originally thought.

My 50% play I may implement more permanently into my overall strategy. Half to play the long term trend and the other half to play the peaks, valleys, and FV fudges.

My big problem today is I will be out of the building until after the deadline so I will not have the advantage of see the markets and making a snap decision. That sucks!:notrust:



Anyway you decide to play it, stay in stocks until this sucker starts to implode. Don't try to incorporate capital preservation. In hindsight, this should have been the strategy through all of September which is the same conclusion I came to in April about the first half of the year. I've been kicking my own butt for not following that lesson learned. I even mentioned this in several other comments in the past month, but I got cocky after pulling a 5+% return in August.

[vectorman]

Dave - thank you.

FS - If we get stripped of the gains through FV tonight, I may hang out in the I through Monday. As you mentioned earlier - the foreign markets are riding low in their channels - I really do not see a catastrophe developing here.

This is totally a gut feeling and has no basis in reality but....my crusty balls tell me - the CPI data is going to come out tomorrow and folks are going to realize we are NOT headed for a recession, then the Fed is going to throw us a rate hike, and folks are going to realize that the economy is still trucking along, too fast. I don't want to get all Birchtree here, but in my gut, I feel we are headed for a rally that leaves us a solid 2-3% over May's highs - despite the common logic you would hold for the CPI and the Fed.

Great call Griffin.

[Griffin]

All (and most recently: Tom and vectorman) - thanks for the positive comments and feedback. It's one thing to do the analysis, but it's hard to put it into words (and i'm not always good at it) but the feedback keeps me from feeling like I'm wasting my time. Thanks.

[AIF]

I read your posts faithfully. ;)

[Griffin]

I am trying to expand my techno geek skills by actually putting a picture in here. If you see a laughing elephant, don't be surprised, it's only a test :D

biglaugh

[Show-me]

Test is a success.

[Griffin]

Test is a success.

Did it come up automatically or did you have to click the link?

I'm trying to figure out how to put an image directly into the post from my desktop

[Griffin]

http://i118.photobucket.com/albums/o117/Griffin022/biglaugh.jpg

Now I am dangerous......thank you Grandma!

[grandma]

Hey, Griffin, he is beautiful!
Is he for real ?? :)
...think he wants to go for a run...??
http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y106/triso/jumpingmouse.gif


(hey Board - I had to have something to do while I waste away in G.....)

[Griffin]

No, he's not real, I think that's from Disney World.


Hey, Griffin, he is beautiful!
Is he for real ?? :)
...think he wants to go for a run...??
http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y106/triso/jumpingmouse.gif


(hey Board - I had to have something to do while I waste away in G.....)

[BigJohn]

Griffin,

Just wanted to pass along a thank-you as a new member but long time watcher for the information that you post. I am attempting to educate myself on the markets and trends that this information might (or might not) bear on my TSP account. It is obvious that you and many others make an earnest attempt to gauge market conditions and post your thoughts on what they mean: it is a real source of information to all of us on this site.

Thanks again.

BigJohn

[Griffin]

Deja vu?....The agent's must be tinkering with the matrix :D

Just kidding, welcome aboard BigJohn.....Thanks for the thumbs up.


Griffin,

Just wanted to pass along a thank-you as a new member but long time watcher for the information that you post. I am attempting to educate myself on the markets and trends that this information might (or might not) bear on my TSP account. It is obvious that you and many others make an earnest attempt to gauge market conditions and post your thoughts on what they mean: it is a real source of information to all of us on this site.

Thanks again.

BigJohn

[ChemEng]

It looks like there may be some juice left in the OSM for us today after all! Although, theres not quite the historical rally on C and S happening right now that I would expect. Im thinking about moving into G from this position.

[Griffin]

It looks like there may be some juice left in the OSM for us today after all! Although, theres not quite the historical rally on C and S happening right now that I would expect. Im thinking about moving into G from this position.

I am definitely happy with the direction the Nikkei took today. But I am a bit disappointed in the Eurozones lack of follow through. With the OSMs flirting with support, the potential for some significant positive action is out there. Today's dollar index move is very noteworthy. Do you chalk it up to light holiday volume or are we seeing a reversal of the more recent positive trend? If you do chalk it up to light volume...Friday will be another light volume day.

Seasonality has once again bucked the trend by being flat. The upside is that the S&P has managed to stay above 1400. A few days ago, I mentioned that from a 4 year perspective, I saw 1400 as the first step to another leg up. Overall, I am very bullish about the next 4-5 weeks, but I don't expect it to go straight up, so there is a possiblity of making some good timing moves. But I want to see something a little more concrete then seasonality to hang my hat on. I'm only going to time if I see a very real possibility of gain.

My strategy is to ride the internationals through the end of this week (still waiting on the EZ - hopefully tomorrow) and probably make the switch to the S or C on Friday. Whatever action we see out of the US market on Friday, I expect to see the opposite early next week.

[ayla]

I am definitely happy with the direction the Nikkei took today. But I am a bit disappointed in the Eurozones lack of follow through. With the OSMs flirting with support, the potential for some significant positive action is out there.

What does OSM stand for? (Thanks in advance.)

[weatherweenie]

What does OSM stand for? (Thanks in advance.)

Overseas Markets

[Griffin]

Happy Thanksgiving all.

[Griffin]

Obviously things did not quite go as I hoped in the international market since the OSM had a slightly down day yesterday, and are now retesting support, having given up all the gains from Wednesday. The upside is the dollar is getting crushed again (at least one thing I anticipated actually happened) and that may be enough to offset the sell off for little net loss.

As I mentioned on Wednesday, I expect next week's action to do the opposite of today. It was originally my intention to move to the USM today, However, with the dollar index now below 84.0, it is going to struggle to recover, and could be on the path to 81.0. Another day or two will tell the tale, but with the OSMs retesting support, I am going to hang in the I-fund for another trading day.

[Griffin]

Overall, I am still bullish, but today's action is too negative to not warrant some real concern. I'm not thrilled about what I see going on, so I am going to slip into a defensive position for a day or two.

[fedgolfer]

hey Grif, if the s fund closes with a large loss it could be at or near a support level to continue the breakout since the target after a cup & handle breakout has not been reached.

From stockcharts -- Target: The projected advance after breakout can be estimated by measuring the distance from the right peak of the cup to the bottom of the cup.

The question is, buy today, tomorrow or how soon?

[Griffin]

Fedgolfer - here is a contrarian indicator: if your smart enought to realize that the volume of Birchtree's babblings are proportional to the pullback potential, then know he posted twenty two times today and it's only 6:00 pm EST.

But don't wait for him to shut his trap in order to move back in..because that will never happen.

On a more serious note: The dip buyer's are about to get punished....expect things to look like they are going to rebound, then drop some more...this will continue until the dip buyers have been punished enough times that they stop buying, because that is the only way to exhaust the sellers. Does this make sense?


hey Grif, if the s fund closes with a large loss it could be at or near a support level to continue the breakout since the target after a cup & handle breakout has not been reached.

From stockcharts -- Target: The projected advance after breakout can be estimated by measuring the distance from the right peak of the cup to the bottom of the cup.

The question is, buy today, tomorrow or how soon?

[Show-me]

Fedgolfer - here is a contrarian indicator: if your smart enought to realize that the volume of Birchtree's babblings are proportional to the pullback potential, then know he posted twenty two times today and it's only 6:00 pm EST.

But don't wait for him to shut his trap in order to move back in..because that will never happen.

On a more serious note: The dip buyer's are about to get punished....expect things to look like they are going to rebound, then drop some more...this will continue until the dip buyers have been punished enough times that they stop buying, because that is the only way to exhaust the sellers. Does this make sense?


Griffin,

LOL!!! Your killing me! I almost fell out of my chair! ROFLMAO!!! I did fall out of my chair! LOL!!!

[Birchtree]

It's good to have Dad keeping track of me, it provides a warm fuzzy feeling. Now don't stand to close to that flat rock - there are consequences you know.

[Griffin]

Griffin,

LOL!!! Your killing me! I almost fell out of my chair! ROFLMAO!!! I did fall out of my chair! LOL!!!

The tempo of Birch's comments has been excessive over the last couple of months, but twenty two in one day? that is so far beyond the call of what's reasonable, there was no way I'm not going to tear into him now.....twenty two?...you have got to be kidding me.....I don't think there was a single thread that anyone posted in all day that he did not insert a comment into.

He follows every intelligent comment anyone makes with some meaningless, unentertaining garbage. It has gotten to the point where folks can not spot their friends on the recent thread lists, because all you see is "Birchtree".

Now ask me how I really feel :D

[Griffin]

It's good to have Dad keeping track of me, it provides a warm fuzzy feeling. Now don't stand to close to that flat rock - there are consequences you know.

Un-freakin-believeable..........you can not even talk about how annoying he is without him inserting some ridiculous sentiment.
:p

[sugarandspice]

Fedgolfer - here is a contrarian indicator: if your smart enought to realize that the volume of Birchtree's babblings are proportional to the pullback potential, then know he posted twenty two times today and it's only 6:00 pm EST.

That is the funniest thing I've read on this site. Ever.

[Show-me]

OMG, just got home and I am laughing more. LOL!!! Please stop........no don't stop.........stop........no............OK I'm done.

[Birchtree]

You don't have a concept of annoying until you meet DMA. Now you are a moderator so I expect civility. It's not necessary to read the Birchtree account talk thread - unless somebody has you in a chicken wing hold. I guess we were just ment to bump sooner or later. See you tomorrow.

[Griffin]

I guess we were just ment to bump sooner or late.

TWENTY TWO POSTS IN ONE DAY.....YOU BUMPED LOTTY......DOTTY AND EVERYBODY

[Birchtree]

Lotty and Dotty - I knew there was a hidden agenda. She is quite capable of measuring up on her own - but it is nice to have a few defenders. Even the Technician had his defenders. You can call me tendentious and I'll refer to you as pedantic. Until we meet again.

[GGal]

Look, I'm obviously set up to get creamed this week, and all you boys can do is throw spit balls around the room?

Please, take off your little boy masks now and be big boys.

I may faint and need some help!

GA

[nnuut]

":(" Yo Tambien!

[Birchtree]

Peaches,

You are in luck don't worry - I am dual licensed as an RN and RRT with many years of critical care experience. I only invest for fun. Didn't you enjoy the sanguinary Dow today? For those who may not have familiarity: RN is registered nurse and RRT is registered respiratory therapist.

Dennis - Sorry Griffin for posting again in your thread.

[nnuut]

Peaches,

You are in luck don't worry - I am dual licensed as an RN and RRT with many years of critical care experience. I only invest for fun. Didn't you enjoy the sanguinary Dow today? For those who may not have familiarity: RN is registered nurse and RRT is registered respiratory therapist.

Dennis - Sorry Griffin for posting again in your thread.
I think I may need your help after today, and tonight!:sick:

[Griffin]

Look, I'm obviously set up to get creamed this week, and all you boys can do is throw spit balls around the room?

Please, take off your little boy masks now and be big boys.

I may faint and need some help!

GA

This is about some common courtesy and not clogging the board with pointless mussings. We all say dumb things from time to time and sometimes we say dumb things that turn out to sound like genius in retrospect. However, there is a limit to the the stream of conciousness that any of us should have to endure. Even you little darling peaches, with all your southern charm and sweetness - could cross the line - if you simply reguritated every whimsical thought that floated through your head. I have a high degree of patience and understanding but even if you, sweetie, peg my STFU meter, I will let you know. ;)

This is not about picking a fight, it's about knowing what NOT to say as well as what to say.

[mlk_man]

Male chauvinist moderators, what a concept............:rolleyes:


Little belle - you may want to choose your words more carefully - getting between the boys, fainting and getting creamed is how you end up in a law suit against the Duke lacrosse team.

This is about some common courtesy and not clogging the board with pointless mussings. We all say dumb things from time to time and sometimes we say dumb things that turn out to sound like genius in retrospect. However, there is a limit to the the stream of conciousness that any of us should have to endure. Even you little darling peaches, with all your southern charm and sweetness - could cross the line - if you simply reguritated every whimsical thought that floated through your head. I have a high degree of patience and understanding but even if you, sweetie, peg my STFU meter, I will let you know. ;)

This is not about picking a fight, it's about knowing what NOT to say as well as what to say.

[Griffin]

Your correct M_M

I apologize GG, that first comment was over the top.


Male chauvinist moderators, what a concept............:rolleyes:

[Birchtree]

Chauvinistically maybe - pedantry certainly. Regurgitate? as in to vomit.

[Griffin]

Hey Shakespeare - do you actually think in these terms, or do you keep a thesaurus under your pillow? :D

[Griffin]

Here is where I am looking for the S&P500 to form a bottom - in the green triangle. Any action, either to the upside or the downside, could trigger more significant selling. I want to see a few days of consolidation before I consider moving back into stocks.

1196

[Griffin]

Just a touch of green to rally enough dip buyers for another drop. Do you call this a dead cat bounce, or did the market simply over react yesterday. Do you recall asking yourself this same question a month ago?

Got deja vu? - the last time we had this weeks slew of reports - the numbers did not come in exceptionaly bad - just more evidence of an economic slowdown leading to a slow bleed off, similar to what were seeing again: Existing homes sales up but the value is down, lower durable goods....etc.

1197

[Griffin]

I moved back into the S, this is probably going to be a one or two day move, I may follow it up with a switch over to the I tomorrow, depending on what happens with the dollar.

It's been a bit annoying to give up the some of the dip buying gains by bailing on the big red days and waiting for the green to buy back in. However, the payday on this strategy will either come in the form of a nice consolidation, or a well developed timeable channel. Either way, I can live with it for now.

[Griffin]

My hypothesis that the market would slip back into the channel from the first half of the year (the top chart), so far has not manifested and now appears to be off the table. I don't mind making mistakes (although November was relatively weak for me as a result) as long as I get back on track quickly. I am now slipping behind the I fund and barely ahead of 50S/50I BAH strategy.

1216

It appears we have a new channel emerging (the bottom chart). I am extremely skeptical of this channel because I suspect it is doomed to fail sooner rather then later. The logic of the bull mantra is getting stretched. I don't think the average Joe is going to buy it for much longer. The AAII is now more bearish then bullish. Sometimes you have to take indicators at their face value. As Birch has mentioned many times, the market likes to catch folks by surprise and shake off as many people as possible. The expectation that a pullback is eminent may become a self fulfilling prophecy, despite the season. The bulls are in a frenzy providing reasons why every bit of economic data/slowdown, the yield curve, the falling dollar, etc. are not a concern. The kind of rationalizations and their volumes are waving a big red flag.

The whole counterpoint stems from earnings - which is truely what should dictate a stocks price. So the bulls are right, earnings are not bad. But, the bulls are no longer giving reasons why the market should continue to go up, now they are giving reason why it should not go down. This is not the same.

In spite of all that, I am keeping in mind "the market can stay irrational longer then you can stay solvent" mantra. I am currently in the G, waiting to catch the next wave, maybe :worried:

[FundSurfer]

Griffin, I think the end of year time frame calls for thinking a little differently in terms of market psychology. I think we will see folks getting defensive but right now may be a little early for that. I think mid to late December could see the market get very nervous. I think your instincts are good just early because of end of year.

[Griffin]

Griffin, I think the end of year time frame calls for thinking a little differently in terms of market psychology

Seasonality, end of quarters, beginning of months, holiday's, elections, etc.....how many times this year have we gone (or not gone) to the trough for these reasons, only to be kicked in the teeth? This year has been a excellent task master, and I feel I have been sufficiently schooled.

I'm sticking to the charts, MACD, slo sto, RSI, etc. for the rest of the year. If it walks like a duck, sounds like a duck and looks like a duck, I'm calling it a duck. :D

[Birchtree]

Quack - Quack.

[Griffin]

Quack - Quack.
You never fly south for the winter

[Birchtree]

I've got 16 ducks in my pond right now - they'll feast on the fish I feed all year probably for another week and then it's off to South America.

[Griffin]

:blink:

[Griffin]

Griffin, I think the end of year time frame calls for thinking a little differently in terms of market psychology. I think we will see folks getting defensive but right now may be a little early for that. I think mid to late December could see the market get very nervous. I think your instincts are good just early because of end of year.

Do you follow the seasonality or defy it? Is the Fed a non-issue?

Most of the people I watch are in a defensive position. The market is still about half way to the bottom of the channel. If we continue sideways, it will take most of this week to get to the launching point - which fits the seasonality pattern. However, if today goes seriously red, creating another, "buy the dip" opportunity, do you jump in and catch the wave knowing it should terminate at about the start of the Santa Claus rally?

This week is going to be about picking the low for the next wave and then knowing when to get off. I think it's a "no brainer" that if your on the sidelines and it goes seriously green today, you don't chase. Maybe that's not a "no brainer"...how much do you trust seasonality?

[FundSurfer]

The market is still about half way to the bottom of the channel.
What channel time frame are you looking at? I think the C-fund is the only one at the half way point, looking at a 6 month time frame. S-fund could be called mid-channel on an 18-24 month time frame but near the top of a short term time frame. I-fund still looks to be in a rising wedge and toward the top of that wedge.

For this week, we may see increases till Friday and then see a dramatic sell-off due to triple witching. That would fit my mid-December prognostication. Charts are looking to me like C-fund (safer than S&I with a little room to go to top of channel.)

[Griffin]

When I say market - I mean the S&P 500 (SPX), I see it as the driver, everything else follows.

1242

Would you call the increases you mentioned - significant or sideways? If I am interpreting this correctly, you are thinking the S&P will make a move above 1415 this week? that would definitely be in defiance of seasonality, possibly leading to a sell off when we should be looking for a rally next week.

That would make today or tomorrow the day to get back in.

As I mentioned before, I am not liking seasonality trends at all this year, and I am tempted to bet against them - and move today. The other side of that coin is the 1415 line, today is the fifth day in a row the S&P has bumped against that ceiling.

1243

The smart thing is probably to get in for the rest of the year, but I would like to catch up to the I-fund a tad more. Haven't made up my mind yet.

[FundSurfer]

I'm thinking a possible 1%-1.5% move up in the C-fund before things could get very dicey. In the bottom graph shown below, I like not where we are headed. The top graph shows where I see us in short term mid-channel.

I think the seasonality trend continues this week but after this week people will be nervous and protective of this years gains.
1244

[Griffin]

I just moved to the F-fund,

I believe the Fed will suggest that inflation is stabilizing, but I doubt they will indicate a potential rate drop.

I think the "end of year hold onto what you got" mentality is insightful and probably correct.

Even if I don't beat the I-fund, I still think I will be able to chalk this year up as a success.

[Griffin]

The slightly negative bias to the market leading up to the fed is not very encouraging for the bulls. Yesterday, Greenspan suggested the dollar is going to continue to be weak for the next couple of years, also not particularly encouraging. If the market were to have a positive reaction to the fed, that could push the Dow to a new all time high, triggering a sell.

The bulls are arguing the economy is strong, so why do they need a confirmation from the Fed? Six days against the 1415 line for the S&P. What does the fed have to say to make it go higher? are words enough, or does the fed have to give a hike to get the bulls moving?

My feeling is that the market needs an injection of optimism to spur it forward and it ain't going to get that this month. Anything short of that and the market does nothing, until the reality of doing nothing kicks in and it sells.

Anyway, you slice it, I see a buying opportunity coming.

[350zCommTech]

My feeling is that the market needs an injection of optimism to spur it forward and it ain't going to get that this month. Anything short of that and the market does nothing, until the reality of doing nothing kicks in and it sells.

Anyway, you slice it, I see a buying opportunity coming.

With the yields down right now, I can see the markets being disappointed if there's no change in the fed speech.

[Griffin]

Talk about missing the forest through the trees, I almost missed the set-up (again :notrust: ) on the S-fund. This is definitely a short play (one day more then likely).

[Griffin]

My feeling is that the market needs an injection of optimism to spur it forward and it ain't going to get that this month. Anything short of that and the market does nothing, until the reality of doing nothing kicks in and it sells.

Anyway, you slice it, I see a buying opportunity coming.

I know the market dropped because of the earnings report, but it's like it was reading my mind today and decided to throw me a bone. Ever have one of those days?


With the yields down right now, I can see the markets being disappointed if there's no change in the fed speech.

350z...the drop Best Buy provided this afternoon managed to trump any disappointment the Fed produced. Anyway, I think the red we got today was what the market needed to get the dip buyers moving again.

[350zCommTech]

350z...the drop Best Buy provided this afternoon managed to trump any disappointment the Fed produced. Anyway, I think the red we got today was what the market needed to get the dip buyers moving again.

Well, the markets were well off their lows just prior to the Fed, and with the way they finished, I'm afraid the dip buyers might have already bought in. If tomorrow's retails sales come in strong, the buying will continue. What did you think about Goldman Sacks earnings report? They beat estimates by a mile but it wasn't good enough.:D

[Griffin]

Well, the markets were well off their lows just prior to the Fed, and with the way they finished, I'm afraid the dip buyers might have already bought in.

Do you think the finish yesterday wasn't strong enough to produce a rally? (just because futures are looking good this morning doesn't mean your wrong - futures are good for predicting the first 15 minutes)


If tomorrow's retails sales come in strong, the buying will continue. What did you think about Goldman Sacks earnings report? They beat estimates by a mile but it wasn't good enough.:D

Goldman-Sachs has had an incredible run this year (I think their up something astronomical..like 80% for the year) so anything short of stellar was going to be a cause for concern. The market's reaction to their report was not anything other then localized profit taking and I don't expect it to spill over to the rest of the market (at least not today).

[FUTURESTRADER]

Talk about missing the forest through the trees, I almost missed the set-up (again :notrust: ) on the S-fund. This is definitely a short play (one day more then likely).

Griffin,

WHAT was the set-up??!!

[Griffin]

I had been so focused on the S&P (SPX), and the possibility that it is rolling over (the blue to the pink channel) that I did not notice the consistency between the rest of the funds (the green channels) and the way they were lining up to make another rally. I was looking for the funds to finish off what looked like a cyclical down turn in the longer term red channels.

Does that make sense? I'm not saying I'm right, but it looks like a possibility.

1247

[fedgolfer]

... good point. Also, if you do a line chart of the TSP fund prices, you'll see that the CSI are all coming off support lines. in the I fund the price broke out of a rising wedge on the north side -- and the past couple of days the trendline that was once resistance is now support. C & S are both within thier short trends and just bounced off of their support lines.

the OHLC on the equity funds vs the straight line on the TSP funds do give a slightly different view though. But the main message is the same... upside short term potential.

[FUTURESTRADER]

I had been so focused on the S&P (SPX), and the possibility that it is rolling over (the blue to the pink channel) that I did not notice the consistency between the rest of the funds (the green channels) and the way they were lining up to make another rally. I was looking for the funds to finish off what looked like a cyclical down turn in the longer term red channels.

Does that make sense? I'm not saying I'm right, but it looks like a possibility.

1247

I don't know, at least looks like a prescient 1 day move as you said. (if this morning holds) :)

[Griffin]

I don't know, at least looks like a prescient 1 day move as you said. (if this morning holds) :)

By the time you know anything with any certainty, it's too late to change. I was expecting a lot more strength then we are seeing this morning. I completely understand your hesitation, I'm not entirely sure that my mind wasn't playing tricks on me and showing me what I wanted to see :nuts: .

I'm going to give it a few more minutes, either I'm going to stay in the S or I will move into the F-fund.

[FUTURESTRADER]

That $TNX is looking pretty strong. I think the bond traders are finally believing the FED is going to hold off a little longer on easing. I had some in F today, but just moved it out. Yesterday's close on S looks like some fair support. 'I' is still chuggin along even with dollar climbing (trending with $TNX)

[Griffin]

Volume is high and A/D is marginally good. The S&P really needs to get on top the 1415 line soon. It's seems the market will hold, pending the CPI data. I'm sticking.

[FundSurfer]

What's that Avatar? A Jew shaking hands with the loonie from Iran?
"Can't we all just get along?" ??!?

[Show-me]

Needs a cross hair on the loonie. O damn, thinking out loud again.

[grandma]

"Can't we all just get along?" ??!?

You will notice who has one hand hidden from view -
...much like those 20 rockets that have been fired off from Gaza this week - after they signed a `cease fire.' :mad: MOD - SOP -

[Griffin]

Fundsurfer,

Birch actually got this one right - I indeed meant this as sarcasm at it's finest. Here's a couple of links to the stories behind the photo.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061212/wl_nm/iran_holocaust_dc

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061212/ap_on_go_pr_wh/bush_holocaust

My personal opinion-

Ahmadinejad means to ignite a spark that will rewrite history (at least in many parts of the world). Sounds ludicrous right? - give it 40-50 years. There are a lot of people in power around this world who would benefit from "wiping that nasty little stain" off the image of facism.

It is very easy for a government to write history how ever they want it percieved. An example "no child left behind" and nationwide standarized tests are setting the stage in this country. The Brits still teach their childern about the evil insidious american colonists who consipred in a dark basement by candlelight to overthrow the rightful king. If you can control what childern are raised to believe you can effect their viewpoint forever.

Don't kid yourself into thinking this guy is a lunatic, he may very well be the next Stalin or Hitler (or at least the precursor) - with the experience of knowing where they went wrong in their PR campaigns. Children all over the world (Venzuela? Bolivia? Germany? Russia? Iraq?, Pakistan? North Korea? - that's a lot of people) may soon be taught "the debate over the morality of holocausts".

Will he use an atomic bomb against us - I doubt it, but he will use it if we try to pre-emptively stop him from building a massive army once he has secured his satellite nations borders and resources.

Don't call me paranoid - I believe this is the type of thinking behind why this guy is doing what he is doing.


What's that Avatar? A Jew shaking hands with the loonie from Iran?
"Can't we all just get along?" ??!?

[airlift]

I can't agree more or add much more to your summary of this potential threat to world peace and stability.

[Birchtree]

The yield curve is saying "economic slowdown" while the stock market's PE continues to express relatively unqualified exuberance. Even if all is well as the SPX sounds like it's suggesting, it would be a healthier, less vulnerable market if it weren't quite so in love with its own prospects as well as with itself.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-6535.htm

[Griffin]

Lacker has got to be laughing up his sleeve this morning.

Will today be the set-up for the next wave, or is this (for the umpteenth time) the start to the long awaited pullback.

I'm not discounting the later simply because of seasonality. In fact, the divergence from seasonality is the strongest reason I have for the pullback option. It would work out nicely to have a couple of days of consolidation and then a huge Santa Claus rally next week.

I am leaning towards this as being a buying opportunity, question is when (today or tomorrow) Before I march off to the charts, I am going to wait an hour or so and see what materializes out of the crude inventories.

[Griffin]

1256

When the DWCP opened into the "uh-oh" zone this morning, I had my doubts about the S&P holding support at 1415 (this has been such a critical number lately). However, the 10 day intraday looks favorable. I am moving back into the S-fund

[Griffin]

I forgot to mention - crude inventories are tomorrow - again, I need calendar training :D .

Tomorrow could yield another wave, or a dead cat bounce..unless today is the DCB and we proceed down tomorrow.

I'm in for better or worse, but I am leary of the GDP and chain deflator which (let me check my calendar) - Thursday....so today may be a one shot deal.


...materializes out of the crude inventories.

[Griffin]

I spent the last couple of days hanging out in the F-fund waiting for the run that Tom mentioned this morning. Unless something happens to change my mind in the next hour, I will be trading my 1-day run in the S back in for F tonight. I don't know how long I am going to stay, but I am taking up a holding pattern until I see a better opportunity emerge, even if it is only a one day here or there. Santa claus will come for my child, but I am keeping tight control on my stocking in case gremlins in elf clothing show up. :D

I have no regrets about taking a cautious approach. I don't see this rally going much beyond the first or second week of January before a serious correction occurs. At best, I see it holding out until the 4Q earnings reports. If that is correct, one could bail at anytime and reasonable expect to have a much better buying opportunity in the not to distant future.

[Propstrike]

Nice move on the S.

[ayla]

I respect your efforts at trying to call members on their deviations from "credibility" but that said, I wanted to comment that your "yard fight" with birchtree caused me to review this old adage:

"Never fight with a Pig, You both get dirty and the Pig enjoys it"

[Griffin]

Ayla,

You are absolutely correct. In the world I live in, it makes sense not to:

1) discourage folks from trying to help themselves
2) steal information and present it as your own
3) take information out of context and misrepresent it
4) insert propoganda into a study group

But that is the world I live in. My head feels much better now that I have stopped banging it on the wall. :D

Gosh darn, that "ethics in scienece and engineering" course I took in college.


I respect your efforts at trying to call members on their deviations from "credibility" but that said, I wanted to comment that your "yard fight" with birchtree caused me to review this old adage:

"Never fight with a Pig, You both get dirty and the Pig enjoys it"

[Birchtree]

Are you saying it took you 79 trades to beat me by 6%? That's remarkable. Maybe there is something to this timer strategy.

[FundSurfer]

Are you saying it took you 79 trades to beat me by 6%? That's remarkable. Maybe there is something to this timer strategy.
You should have read enough of this board to know the answer to that question is that:

1. The percentage might look a whole lot different in a bear market.
&
2. Do the math... 6% adds up over time ... it's called the magic of compounding.

[ChemEng]

You say 6&#37;. I say he beat you by ~30%.

Then considering how much 6% per year across 25-30 years is... I would definately say there is something to timer strategy.

[VirginiaBob]

Anyone arguing that an additional 6&#37; a year is not worth some additional effort is an IDIOT. Period. Over a 30 year career, that 6% per year causes your account to double an additional 2.5 times using the rule of 72.

[airlift]

I agree with Fundsurfer, ChemEng, Show-me, Griffin and many other unnamed colleagues here. The fact that trading your account requires a hands-on approach instead of riding the cycles up and down means that you have to know what you are doing. However, technical analysis (TA) if properly interpreted and its signals understood, can help you increase your nest-egg in a shorter time span and can also help you go to cash in a defensive posture when market conditions become overextended. In fact, TA can even help buy-and-holders increase their wealth, provided that they are willing to be flexible and open-minded! Happy Holidays and profitable trading to all of you and me also!....

[Griffin]

Anyone arguing that an additional 6% a year is not worth some additional effort is an IDIOT. Period. Over a 30 year career, that 6% per year causes your account to double an additional 2.5 times. So if you account would have been 1 million, the additional 6% per year makes your account 6 million.

VirginiaBob,

You got that right - For those out there that want a very easyway to explore the "magic of compounding" the link below is an excellent site. It allows you to incorporate inflation effects as well.

http://personal.fidelity.com/toolbox/growth/growth.shtml

On a side note - I am through with the debate I have been having with Birchtree. My moderator hat is back on and I am not going to pursue the matter further. I promise I will not pop into your (that "your" is a collective "to all") talk thread and tell you what you should or should not do and I expect y'all to reciprocate.

Happy holidays and happy investing :)

[Gritz]

Nice comments Griffin, glad to hear a "higher road" thread on future debates :)!

Based on your moves and resulting returns, not sure how or why anyone would dismiss your input, as long as it is stated with the right intentions, or since it is written, stated with the proper tact. Of course, we should not be too sensitive if/when someone disagrees with a strategy /idea/prognosis/etc, if we all agreed, all the time, we'd miss some learning opportunities.

Anyway, it was nice to read your comments. Merry Christmas!

[Griffin]

Merry Christmas to you Gritz

Disagreement and discussion are the fuel for producing better results. I absolutely encourage this. However, when someone approaches a discussion with the attitude that: they are right, they are perfect, there is no other way and anyone who disagrees is a moron - it defeats the purpose.

I don't have a problem with someone having that viewpoint - like you said - that is their loss. I have a problem when the viewpoint becomes a campaign.

My advice to all: the harder someone tries to sell you a product, the more you need to ask yourself, why the product is not selling itself - and maybe even more importantly in this case - why no one is buying it except the guy selling it.

Back to the day's events

Since I finally got my F-fund reward yesterday (and hopefully a tad more today), I think I am going to "buy the dip" one more timeI would like to break the magic 24% for the year (that's the point where your money doubles every 4 years).

Here's my thoughts on the current conditions: I see the dollar setting up for a possible drop and the trend says I-fund, but as we saw in May - the I-fund is the worst place to be if this market pulls back. I am not going to get real nervous until about the 3-4 trading day of January, so the I is on the table for the immediate future.

The S-fund really disappointed in this last rally. I chalk that up to a rotation into blue chips - which also tells me the general market is starting to get concerned about a pullback again. The C has been performing nicely, so I see that as the other option, a safer alternative - which is where I may end up going into the new year.

I am fairly sure I am going to jump back in today and the deciding factor will be if I think the market will change course after lunch today significantly hampering a play into the I-fund.


Nice comments Griffin, glad to hear a "higher road" thread on future debates :)!

Based on your moves and resulting returns, not sure how or why anyone would dismiss your input, as long as it is stated with the right intentions, or since it is written, stated with the proper tact. Of course, we should not be too sensitive if/when someone disagrees with a strategy /idea/prognosis/etc, if we all agreed, all the time, we'd miss some learning opportunities.

Anyway, it was nice to read your comments. Merry Christmas!

Last thing Gritz, I have made some big mistakes this year so don't take what I say as gospel - no one ever gets it right all the time.

[Griffin]

1266

Last week I went into the I-fund and since I don't split my money I went 100&#37;. While the I is now up .8% for the week, the S is up 1.5%. However, I fully expect the foreign market to play catch up to today's run, so I didn't make the switch. I expect all the relevant indexes to push to new highs here over the next 5-7 trading days.

The Santa momentum is running strong and I do not see any reason to expect a change. Right now there is about a 3% delta in the channel of EFA and about a 5% delta in the DWCP. The dollar index is struggling against 84.0 which has a history of being a critical point, and is now approaching the 50 dma. I expect the dollar to make a big move here one way or the other.

The way I see it, the key to the next couple of days is threading the needle between: holding onto the I long enough to catcj a dollar drop, and making the switch to the S before the next big push to new highs in the DWCP.

[FUTURESTRADER]

Merry Christmas to you Gritz

Disagreement and discussion are the fuel for producing better results. I absolutely encourage this. However, when someone approaches a discussion with the attitude that: they are right, they are perfect, there is no other way and anyone who disagrees is a moron - it defeats the purpose.

I don't have a problem with someone having that viewpoint - like you said - that is their loss. I have a problem when the viewpoint becomes a campaign.

My advice to all: the harder someone tries to sell you a product, the more you need to ask yourself, why the product is not selling itself - and maybe even more importantly in this case - why no one is buying it except the guy selling it.

Back to the day's events

Since I finally got my F-fund reward yesterday (and hopefully a tad more today), I think I am going to "buy the dip" one more timeI would like to break the magic 24&#37; for the year (that's the point where your money doubles every 4 years).

Here's my thoughts on the current conditions: I see the dollar setting up for a possible drop and the trend says I-fund, but as we saw in May - the I-fund is the worst place to be if this market pulls back. I am not going to get real nervous until about the 3-4 trading day of January, so the I is on the table for the immediate future.

The S-fund really disappointed in this last rally. I chalk that up to a rotation into blue chips - which also tells me the general market is starting to get concerned about a pullback again. The C has been performing nicely, so I see that as the other option, a safer alternative - which is where I may end up going into the new year.

I am fairly sure I am going to jump back in today and the deciding factor will be if I think the market will change course after lunch today significantly hampering a play into the I-fund.



Last thing Gritz, I have made some big mistakes this year so don't take what I say as gospel - no one ever gets it right all the time.

Griffin...I'm assuming that the 24% is a 'continuous' compounding figure, versus the traditional 'annual' compounding rule of 72??...72/24% = 3 years to double money??

[Griffin]

Griffin...I'm assuming that the 24% is a 'continuous' compounding figure, versus the traditional 'annual' compounding rule of 72??...72/24% = 3 years to double money??

24.1% is what you need to double your NET money every four years assuming a 3% inflation rate. You are correct 24% will double your ACTUAL money every three years. When you look at it from this perspective, it makes you appreciate an inflation fighting Fed.

Moving on, I completely lost track of the time today (I started finishing my basement - a big reason I am leaning towards a more long term approach this winter, since I won't have a whole lot of time to strategize at night). I probably would have moved to the I given the initial dollar drop and early weakness in the market. The action in the dollar overall was good for the I-fund and may cough up some more cash tomorrow, so I don't think failing to move will be a big deal. I will probably initiate an IFT to the S-fund in the morning.

Overall, I expect tomorrow will be relatively sideway but the end of the day should give us a clue about where things will go on Tuesday (or Wednesday depending on the funeral). Did they make that decision?

[Wheels]

24.1% is what you need to double your NET money every four years assuming a 3% inflation rate. You are correct 24% will double your ACTUAL money every three years.

Both equations assumes no continuing contributions so you should need a bit less to double in 4 years.

[Griffin]

Many moons ago I mentioned that I had two basic goals for my account. The first was to meet or beat the best performing fund. I did not quite achieve that since I ended the year 2.46% behind the I-fund. I chalk a lot of that up to July, when the I-fund had a strong run and I sat in the C-fund because I did not have access to television/internet for a month. My second criteria was to beat a 50S/50I split which I did by 3.04%. The first criteria is a goal and missing that goal by less then 3.0% I consider to be acceptable. If you followed the study Desperado and I discussed, you will see my logic there.

Before I started timing, I had my account on a 50S/50I autopilot, so to beat that by 3.0% is fantastic. At the rate I am going, an extra 3.0% for another 21 years will yield at least an extra million. Given the time I spend managing my account (half-hour to an hour everyday) that comes out to over $100.00 an hour. That's sweat equity I can live with.

I am calling this year a success and will continue to time.

I did not move to the S-fund today. I think we will see serious weakening of the dollar in the next week.

[Griffin]

I am still 100% in the I-fund from last year but this fits my strategy for today. I am going to modify my strategy this year and go to a more long term multi-fund approach. The basic goal is to rely less on the G and try to capture the better of the S&I by weighting them according to the likely direction of the dollar index. I believe Greenspan's opinion of the dollar - continued weakening, so I expect to concentrate heavily in the I most of the year.

The overall strategy basically consists of weighting between the S&I during periods of likely upward movement with a shifting of some assets to the C or F-funds when the market gets to the top of it's channel. I am going to reserve movement's to the G-fund for when I think a serious correction or pullback is going to occur (which I see potential in the very near future - within weeks). This strategy makes sense for a strong bull year, however, I always reserve the right to change my strategy if the year changes.

I see the dollar sliding in the next couple of days and I am waiting for the Nikkei and Yen to get in on the start of the year action. So I will hold this for another day (at least) then move some of my chips over to the S-Fund.

[Griffin]

I am 100% in the I, and waiting for yesterday's I-fund debacle to get straghtened out.

The yen is holding it's ground while the pound and euro are losing to the dollar. I expect the Yen to weaken later today or tomorrow, so I want to shift some, if not all, funds out of the I-fund. I believe the dollar index will get to about 95.0 before it makes it's next reversal down.

I do not see any reason to expect anything other then an absolute pounding on the I fund tomorrow. The S-fund is looking very attractive, I may have to forgo my caution with the I fund debacle and move.

[Griffin]

Moved the whole enchilada into the S-fund. It turns out not splitting my money is a harder habit to break then I anticipated....oh well, at least I was able to resist going to the G.

We have had a lot of sideways action in the past couple of trading weeks and we are due for another multi-day rally. I recognize we may have to give up a little more to get that started, but that could all happen intraday.

[Griffin]

From Jobs Report

http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

"Nonfarm employment increased by 167,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Job gains occurred in several service-providing industries, including professional and business services, health care, and food services. Average hourly earnings rose by 8 cents, or 0.5 percent, in December."

This should turn this train around just in time. I'm looking for a nice rally since we are riding low in the channels

1278

[Wheels]

This should turn this train around just in time. I'm looking for a nice rally since we are riding low in the channels

I hope you are right since I am in for today but the futures market doesn't seem to agree with you.

[Griffin]

Dave,

Futures are good for about the first 15-30 minutes of the day. But the situation is improving in the OSMs the EU was down .5 on average and is now red about .3

Have a little faith :nuts:

On a serious note, I personally believe we are going to spend a good chunk of this whole year waiting for the big pullback. It seems absolutely absurd that this bull run could just run and run, but if you fixate on the pullback, you will end up like Tech. I'm glad your in - keep your stops up to date.


I hope you are right since I am in for today but the futures market doesn't seem to agree with you.

[Griffin]

Futures may still be down, but Bonds are taking a loss due to the jobs report. I take that as an indicator that there is some buyer sentiment out there.

Once again, I will say - as long as the S&P 500 stays above 1410, I think we are set for a rally (it may not come until next week)

One last thing - The crack addicts over in N. Korea are revin' up for another nuke test.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/05/markets/bondcenter/bonds/index.htm

[Wheels]

Dave,

Futures are good for about the first 15-30 minutes of the day. But the situation is improving in the OSMs the EU was down .5 on average and is now red about .3

Have a little faith :nuts:

On a serious note, I personally believe we are going to spend a good chunk of this whole year waiting for the big pullback. It seems absolutely absurd that this bull run could just run and run, but if you fixate on the pullback, you will end up like Tech. I'm glad your in - keep your stops up to date.

I agree that the futures are not a good indicator of the day. But Japan is already closed and that is going to hurt my 50% in the I. The rest is in the S so hopefully that will turn around. I also agree with your thoughts on the pullback. It kept me out for most of the 4th quarter and cost me about 7% in gains. I'm going to try and steal a few percent here but I will still be definitely watching for a small breather (hopefully it won't all come today).

Lastly, there is one point on which I cannot agree with you. As a diehard Dallas fan, I can't see the Eagles going all the way (even though I grew up in South Jersey)

[Griffin]

I can understand straying from the flock, my resolve has been tested over the years, but how do you become a Dallas fan? :sick: Were you exiled from Jersey....have you given up on the Boss too?

Enjoy TO, with any luck he will you convince you to cross back into the light :D .


Lastly, there is one point on which I cannot agree with you. As a diehard Dallas fan, I can't see the Eagles going all the way (even though I grew up in South Jersey)

[Griffin]

My faith just got skewered since my S&P 500 sub-1410 stop was decisively engaged. Went 100&#37; G. I guess this is it (feels like 2005 all over again). The good news is that maybe a few weeks from now we can move forward without the Pullback fear.

[Wheels]

I can understand straying from the flock, my resolve has been tested over the years, but how do you become a Dallas fan? :sick: Were you exiled from Jersey....have you given up on the Boss too?

Enjoy TO, with any luck he will you convince you to cross back into the light :D .

My Dad was a fan so I was a fan. I have no idea why he was a fan. I think he liked that both Staubach and Landry had professed their faith in Christ.

It's been tough being a fan with the tuna and T.O. on board but I'm not the fair weather type. Dallas gets the easy road to NFC championship game, Seattle first then Chicago (assuming your Beagles take care of the G-men). Hopefully they can cure some of their recent ills and make a run. I'd love to see T.O. get dumped after this season.

Back to $$$$. Looks like my 50/50/S/I ain't working out too well. I may go 100% I for Monday and hope for some kind of afternoon turn around (with no FV of course)

[Wheels]

My faith just got skewered since my S&P 500 sub-1410 stop was decisively engaged. Went 100% G. I guess this is it (feels like 2005 all over again). The good news is that maybe a few weeks from now we can move forward without the Pullback fear.

Great. You pull me back in so I can take the beating and you bolt.

[FundSurfer]

Back to $$$$. Looks like my 50/50/S/I ain't working out too well. I may go 100% I for Monday and hope for some kind of afternoon turn around (with no FV of course)

Throwing good money after bad?

[Wheels]

Throwing good money after bad?

This cannot be the beginning of a pullback. My luck/timing/whatever could not possibly be that bad.

[FundSurfer]

This cannot be the beginning of a pullback. My luck/timing/whatever could not possibly be that bad.
Where's that graphic of the market rollercoaster Tom often post?

[350zCommTech]

This cannot be the beginning of a pullback. My luck/timing/whatever could not possibly be that bad.


I hope that wasn't sarcasm...

Weren't those common phrases ottered by many traders in '87 and 2000/2001?

[Griffin]

I probably shouldn't say this, since death by stoning (via beer bottles) is the unofficial punishment for being a Dallas fan in this town, but they used to be an admirable team. With any luck, the NFL will blacklist TO permanantly.

New York is going down like todays I-fund (snicker)....don't blame me you sat on the sidelines. If I recall, you tried to pass FS, S&S, Show-me and I by making some contrarian moves. You admitted at the time that was silly. Keep in mind, this is like elementary school - all the kids get to be winner's if we work together. Your not entirely alone, Sugar jumped into the S-fund. I suspect she will get a "coming to Jesus" speech from Spice before the days out. :nuts:


My Dad was a fan so I was a fan. I have no idea why he was a fan. I think he liked that both Staubach and Landry had professed their faith in Christ.

It's been tough being a fan with the tuna and T.O. on board but I'm not the fair weather type. Dallas gets the easy road to NFC championship game, Seattle first then Chicago (assuming your Beagles take care of the G-men). Hopefully they can cure some of their recent ills and make a run. I'd love to see T.O. get dumped after this season.

Back to $$$$. Looks like my 50/50/S/I ain't working out too well. I may go 100% I for Monday and hope for some kind of afternoon turn around (with no FV of course)

[Wheels]

If I recall, you tried to pass FS, S&S, Show-me and I by making some contrarian moves.

That was a long time ago. I've been out of the tracker for quite a while and my stubborness had nothing to do with you guys.

[sugarandspice]

Eagles defense must remain intact and play sound.

Jeff Garcia will not lead them to the promised land. That is a promise.

[Griffin]

Blasphemy women....may a 1000 camels fart in your general direction.
:D

Eagles defense must remain intact and play sound.

Jeff Garcia will not lead them to the promised land. That is a promise.

[sugarandspice]

With Garcia's ability to slam his head against things, the Eagles are 1 hard hit away from the A.J. and Koy traveling road show. Personally I would like to see Drew Brees beat the Chargers but that ain't gonna happen either. I gamble too much on football to have a favorite team. I'd like to see Mcnair win too. Ok sorry got footballitis.

[weatherweenie]

I gamble too much on football to have a favorite team.

I think I LOVE you! :laugh:

[Griffin]

Getting your teeth kicked in is all part of the great Philly experience. It's a favorite passtime, almost more popular then shooting each other. It's a city that has a way of bringing out the (not-so) greatness in people - Ben Franklin had thirty something illegitimate children - so just about anyone can be related to the great Philly spirit. Maybe Feeley or Demter have it in their blood. :D


With Garcia's ability to slam his head against things, the Eagles are 1 hard hit away from the A.J. and Koy traveling road show. Personally I would like to see Drew Brees beat the Chargers but that ain't gonna happen either. I gamble too much on football to have a favorite team. I'd like to see Mcnair win too. Ok sorry got footballitis.

[Griffin]

I am fairly confident that the quick drop at opening (despite the green futures) is indicitive of what we will see for much of this week. The media is focused on the merger's and acquisitions occurring this week, but I think the uncertainty (sell pressure) that will be produced will have a more profound effect then the hopes for bigger P/E ratios (buy pressure).

Japan was closed for a holiday but most the far east did follow suite with the US and slid today. So keep in mind that can of worms is waiting to be opened tomorrow and will likely be seriously red, if we get anything less then a nice rally today.

The EU is slightly positive which is not suprising considering it took the brunt of Friday's sell off right at close. However, the EU is now looking for direction and will probably take it from Japan tomorrow.

Today the market is going to search for a bottom and it might even find one just long enough to create a sucker rally. The difference between a sucker rally and a real rally will be most evident in how the S&P 500 reacts to the 1410 level. If it can master it, the rally just might be real, but if it struggles - I'd stay away.

[mlk_man]

Griffin, can I ask what you are basing all your analysis on or did I miss something somewhere?

[Griffin]

Griffin, can I ask what you are basing all your analysis on or did I miss something somewhere?

M_M - the short answer is "I don't know". I don't know what your goals are and if your achieveing them, so I really can't begin to tell you what your missing :D

Seriously, first: I never tell people what to do or not to do and, even more importantly, I do not go into their account talk threads and chastise people for their actions.

Do you disagree with something I said, if so, I'd like to hear it, that's how people learn. On the other hand, if it simply bothers you that I am willing to go out on a limb and give an opinion and you want to argue the validity of that, OK, but be clear on your intentions. I am a bit annoyed by your choice of phrasing, I dislike the spineless passive aggressive approach. You make it sound like I have some kind of superiority complex. Other then my unabashed support of the Eagles, I have never crammed my opinions down other peoples throats.

When I say I am confident, believe, think etc....I am giving an opinion. I provide my thoughts/views simply to explain why I am doing what I am doing, not because I expect to be 100% right or I have special insight into what the market is going to do. By giving my views, folks can understand why I do what I do and what I am looking for.

Some of what I said is opinion -

- That the EU will follow Japan (not particulary insightful - that is typical, especially when the EU is having a humdrum day in the middle of a volatile period) - my opinion

- The bit about buying /selling pressures is my opinion

Here's the facts -

- Japan's closed

- 1410 on the S&P has been a critical point for a couple of weeks (pull up the intraday charts) I think that is fairly self evident.

[SkiUtah]

Nice reply, this is gonna be a great year on the MB.

Go Bears.

[mlk_man]

Seriously, first: I never tell people what to do or not to do and, even more importantly, I do not go into their account talk threads and chastise people for their actions.



First,I think Birchy would disagree with you.

Second, I asked because I was curious and also because if you are going on hunches, people should know that. That statement you made Friday that the market would recover was a little off after all.

Lastly, you need to either lighten up or give up your moderator duties.....with your public attacks on Birchy and your apparent paranoia, I don't think you are doing the position justice. Just an opinion.........

[Birchtree]

R.I.P. - don't dig up the Zombie.

[Griffin]

First,I think Birchy would disagree with you.

Second, I asked because I was curious and also because if you are going on hunches, people should know that. That statement you made Friday that the market would recover was a little off after all.

Lastly, you need to either lighten up or give up your moderator duties.....with your public attacks on Birchy and your apparent paranoia, I don't think you are doing the position justice. Just an opinion.........


First :) Did you read that playground brawl? Your talking to the choir - how many mindless posts has Birch posted in other folks account talk threads since then? He's at it again right now in Mayday's thread, and it was Sugarandspices on Friday

Second :cheesy: what's the difference between a hunch and an opinion?

I don't claim to be right all the time but for clarity sakes concerning Friday - my confidence in a rally was not shaken, until the S&P nosed below 1407 which is about the same time that I posted a messages stating that and I had moved to the G. I even posted prior to that message that if the S&P dropped below 1410, I might change my mind. I reserve the right to change my mind if the situation changes significantly. I do make the effort to let people know.

Lastly :D I enjoy the debate/discussion/arguments - if they are productive. If your looking to have sunshine illuminate your rear, you've come to the wrong guy

On a serious note: If you, Birch and GeorgiaGal are going to collaborate the start of a flame war and this is your way of picking a fight. I had enough with Birch, I'm really not interested in going down that path again. I'm not even going to get into "IT" with Tech. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt and I extend that same courtesy to you.

[mlk_man]

On a serious note: If you, Birch and GeorgiaGal are going to collaborate the start of a flame war and this is your way of picking a fight. I had enough with Birch, I'm really not interested in going down that path again. I'm not even going to get into "IT" with Tech. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt and I extend that same courtesy to you.

Oh yeah, we're all in cahoots against you................:rolleyes:

Good luck to you.....................

http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y216/mlk_man/Toon10.jpg

[Birchtree]

In extending some courtesy I'm assuming your read the mindless comments I left in Mayday's thread. My suspicion is you have never made money like that in your life. And that is just one stock in my portfolio. Let's avoid the avarice if possible - because I'm not passive. From our past history DMA you should know better by now. Try not to be so disingenous and look in the mirror more often. Thanks.

Dennis

[Griffin]

Speaking of paranoia and collaboration.......

This is meaningless to me....I am not DMA (for the third time).

I took a fairly substantial pay-cut (and hourly work-week) from corporate America to come onboard as a GS-teen, so I could spend more time with my family. Money is a function of time, having it doesn't make you right (or wrong for that matter). Becasue 1 stock in a portfolio of 205 has done well does not mean that your a genius - now were back to monkey's and darts.

I have no desire to continue this discussion.


In extending some courtesy I'm assuming your read the mindless comments I left in Mayday's thread. My suspicion is you have never made money like that in your life. And that is just one stock in my portfolio. Let's avoid the avarice if possible - because I'm not passive. From our past history DMA you should know better by now. Try not to be so disingenous and look in the mirror more often. Thanks.

Dennis

[Birchtree]

I could counter that many stocks in my portfolio are doing well - but what would that accomplish. You are the one that mentioned you plan to hit $1million in your TSP account before you retire. Good luck on that goal - and that's no bullhockey.

[Griffin]

I could counter that many stocks in my portfolio are doing well - but what would that accomplish. You are the one that mentioned you plan to hit $1million in your TSP account before you retire. Good luck on that goal - and that's no bullhockey.

1 million is doable, I only need to beat the C-fund by about 6% per year to do that (oh yeah - check off 2006 as a success).

I could counter that many stocks in your portfolio are not doing well - but what would that accomplish?

[Griffin]

For those that may be interested - the first link is a typical TA's assessment of the MCSUM (McClellan Summation Index), the second is where you can see it in a chart form.

http://invest-faq.com/articles/tech-an-mcclellan.html

http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNYSE.html

A quick assessment of both will reveal that the index has been giving various shades of gray (neutral) signals for the past year other then a brief period when it went bearish - about one week into May/Junes drop and subsequently went neutral again after the S&P had recovered half of it's losses.

[airlift]

I notice extraordinary hostility back and forth. Please bury the hatchets and let each other breath calmly without fear of getting back-stabbed. Call it a day, all of you. Try not to spend some much energy in wasteful activities. Mutual respect must prevail here, not only for the sake of the actors, but also for the sake of other members. Thank you!

Peace.

[Griffin]

Sponser,

I have been sitting here trying to formulate a response to the "why can't we all get along" statement. I am tempted to change my avatar back to the rabii and facist and reinstate my old signature.

However, I have decide that maybe it is time to take lemons and make lemonade. I am going to start a board etiquette thread Your Comments forum. I hope you choose to participate.


I notice extraordinary hostility back and forth. Please bury the hatchets and let each other breath calmly without fear of getting back-stabbed. Call it a day, all of you. Try not to spend some much energy in wasteful activities. Mutual respect must prevail here, not only for the sake of the actors, but also for the sake of other members. Thank you!

Peace.

[rokid]

Pls change your avatar back!!!!

Go Skins!:cheesy:

[SkyPilot]

Griffin,

Some days are like that... You do a great job and I know it is a challenge at times to keep all things in perspective. I had to give up the moderator position because I did not feel I could respond with the vigor I would have liked.

Keep up the good work, and hang in there...

Peace,

[Griffin]

Griffin,

Some days are like that... You do a great job and I know it is a challenge at times to keep all things in perspective. I had to give up the moderator position because I did not feel I could respond with the vigor I would have liked.

Keep up the good work, and hang in there...

Peace,

SkyPilot - I appreciate the understanding and can absolutely relate. This is why I no longer attempt a daily analysis in the bull pen thread (in fact - I hardly post in the day to day or fund threads at all).

On the other hand, I see no reason to be restrained in my account talk thread when the feedback was neither provoked or requested.

[airlift]

Never give up on the idea of "why can't we all get along". BTW, you can use both avatars on and off. Between the fascist and the rabii, give me the rabii anytime! (with eyes closed!!).

[mlk_man]

Griffin, with all due respect to Sky, you need to give up the moderator position................seriously........

[Griffin]

Griffin, with all due respect to Sky, you need to give up the moderator position................seriously........

I just read you post over in the board etiquette thread. LOL

All, I can say is "wow". I had no idea that little ribbin' got so far under your skin. I thought you would get a chuckle out of it. I misjudged your sense of humor. Let's call it even and let it go.

Can you live with that?

[tsptalk]

Yes, let's call it even and give Griffin back his thread.

[Griffin]

The Ruskies are back tinkering with the EU's energy supply again. Last year, I thought it would effect the market, but it didn't. In fact, if it had not been for the Livedoor incident, the I-fund would have probably significantly outperformed the S-fund for the first half of the year as well. However, I am not going to dismiss this latest exchange. It's another brick in the wall building between energy exporting and energy importing regions. Someday this situation is going to become intolerable to the EU and more importantly Germany - these are dangerous games Belarus and Ukraine are playing - at some point sides are going to get picked - but not today.

I'm finding myself in the same position as October and November, having just sold at a low and looking at a potential bounce. As Pointman 72 can attest too, having held through the whole ordeal of the last six months was definitely the way to go. Question of the year - is it the way forward? My Philosphy for this year was based on a Yes to that question.

My goal is to nail the critical points and not get caught up in the onsies/twosies of the day to day, other then to adjust which stocks I was in. I didn't move to the G last Thursday because of this more long term approach and for better or worse, I intend to see this experiment through to the bitter or better end. With that philosophy in mind, I decided last Friday was a critical point. Now I am asking myself, how much flexibility do I allow before I except that it was not a critical point. The catch is, if I only give it a day or two, I might as well go right back to the process I was using last year.

It's a bit disconcerting, especially because I'm here for the exact same reason. Over the last 6 months, the channel of the S&P 500 has been a series of wedges, with the closing of each wedge, a slight deviation and shallowing of the slope has occurred. What is unique about this most recent low, is that it has now broken below the channel set by the lows in September and November. That is what ultimately swayed me into calling it a critical point. Even if it looks good today, I am not going to move back in because of the strategy. According to the broader picture approach, a couple of days one way or the other are not going to make a serious difference. If I wasn't following this strategy I would probably jump in if I see the S&P break away from the 1410 line.

[Griffin]

The world is up to it's Caracas in facists and alligators :D

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070109/venezuela_chavez.html?.v=7

Keep in mind Verizon and MCI just merged.

[nnuut]

The world is up to it's Caracas in facists and alligators :D

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070109/venezuela_chavez.html?.v=7

Keep in mind Verizon and MCI just merged.
Remember, NO, NO CITGO:mad:

[Griffin]

Looking at the companies reporting earnings today on Yahoo's list, there is a definite bias toward the negative. Out of ten companies reporting yesterday, only one was solid green, a couple are relatively unchanged, but the majority are red. It's a fairly similiar situation for the companies reporting today.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070109/wall_street.html?.v=33

Alcoa, (who reports after the bell tonight) seems to be the fulcrum point. Ultimately, one of two or both things has to happen, in order for the market to go higher,

1) Earnings come in on target or better

2) The market accepts higher P/E ratios

Earnings ain't lookin' to hot so far. Given yesterday's whooping doubling of the consumer credit report estimate and the market's subdued reaction, there seems to be a lot of skepticism about the profitibility of the holiday season. I recall hearing the talking heads saying after black Friday that November was relatively weak and they were looking forward to December. If 12.3 Billion couldn't pay the bills, I'm not sure there could be enough out there in gift cards to make up the difference.

Of course, the market could always except higher P/E ratios. I'm a bit skeptical of that given the inverted yield curve.

[Griffin]

Alcoa rocks!
:)
Futures spike!
:D

http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/09/news/companies/alcoa_earnings.reut/index.htm

Alcoa up 4% in after hours - here a link to get a quote.

http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?pg=qu&sid=127357&symb=AA&time=6mo&uf=0

[tsptalk]

Nice report. The rest of the market doesn't seem as enthused - S&P and Naz futures are rather flat.

[fabijo]

Griffin -

I like the new avatar. You from Philly? I'm from Olney - one of the many crappy neighborhoods of Philly.

[Oldcoin]

Yes, let's call it even and give Griffin back his thread.

I was reading an article that opined that Alcoa’s domestic sales were down and the majority of their gains in ’06 came from China. The indication was that the U.S. economy had slowed while Asia had picked up the slack. The question for the future was whether China could sustain such a hot economy and what was the future of the U.S. economy.

[Griffin]

I haven't lived in the city since I was a kid, now I live in burbs out past the blue route with the "cultured folks". I still don't fit in :D

The closest I get to Olney is the zoo and the mann. I hope that doesn't make me a snob.


Griffin -

I like the new avatar. You from Philly? I'm from Olney - one of the many crappy neighborhoods of Philly.

[Griffin]

If your source was correct, that could be useful info for tomorrow. I read something that was suggesting the down under's futures market was set for a rocky start. If the far east chokes, despite good earnings from Alcoa, that may be saying something. That's a broad generalization, but maybe there's something too it.


I was reading an article that opined that Alcoa’s domestic sales were down and the majority of their gains in ’06 came from China. The indication was that the U.S. economy had slowed while Asia had picked up the slack. The question for the future was whether China could sustain such a hot economy and what was the future of the U.S. economy.

[airlift]

You two live very close to a beautiful, historic area -- Valley Forge, Penna. Enjoy it!:)


I haven't lived in the city since I was a kid, now I live in burbs out past the blue route with the "cultured folks". I still don't fit in :D

The closest I get to Olney is the zoo and the mann. I hope that doesn't make me a snob.

[fabijo]

I don't still live there. I'm in NYC now, but am trying to transfer back to the homeland.

[airlift]

A long time ago my uncle graduated in the 1st graduating class of a military high school -- Valley Forge Miltary Academy (1930 or so), and my brother followed his steps in the 1958 graduating class.

[Griffin]

A fraternity brother of mine graduated from there, I forget the exact dynamics but he was something like the youngest first lieutenant in 20 years (I'm not sure if that is correct....I refer to my recollection of those days as the "fuzzy years") but for an old mustang it was amazing to meet a nineteen or twenty year old 1LT.


A long time ago my uncle graduated in the 1st graduating class of a military high school -- Valley Forge Miltary Academy (1930 or so), and my brother followed his steps in the 1958 graduating class.

[Griffin]

So much for Alcoa being the catalyst. Makes me wonder what it would take for 4Q earnings reports to drive this market. If earnings aren't the ticket, then that leaves the Fed and a rate cut. That puts the PPI numbers in the spotlight.

Awhile ago I presented a case that the S&P would drop into the channel of early 2006. It seemed to make psychological sense -not too aggressive, not to weak - what I thought would be Goldilocks.

I am resurrecting that hypothesis not as a suggestion of will happen, but as a concept of what the market is debating. A drop to the bottom of that channel would constitute a 3.5% correction. At which point we could move forward with some sustainability and potentially yield about 15% or more for the year (net). However, the bulls are chanting pre-election year growth suggesting the current condition is the precursor negativity to a big springboard bounce. Is a 3.5% correction enough to get the market back on track, if that track would end up yielding a net of maybe 15% for the year? Are the bulls willing to give it up now for a better buying opportunity tomorrow?

I don't know which way it will go, by I think it is reasonable to conclude that when something happens, it will happen quick and volatile. The VIX is above 12 and seems to be trending upwards, a tad bit more and the pin action is going to start. Depending on your position (if you go 100% one way or the other) I think you have to be prepared to miss a 1.5% bounce or take a 1.5% loss, before you can have an opportunity to react. The closer we get to the PPI numbers without a break, the more I would ramp that up. If the S&P is still hovering around 1410 by next Wednesday, I'd expect it to be a 2.0% or more delta day.

One last thought: another week and we could quietly walk into that channel sideways without a whole lot of bloodshed and volatility.

1281

[Griffin]

1282

http://stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/triangle-Descending.html

I suppose you can apply chart patterns at the intraday level. A descending triangle is a continuation pattern for further loss, in this case taking the S&P 500 below 1405.

[Griffin]

At the end of every year, somebody points out that with just 3-5 moves here, here and here you would have generated xx% return....that strategy sounds good in theory but is not really practical. It's hard to pick exact tops or bottoms, especially when the market is shifting channels. Still I am going to continue to cut back on the moves in and out.


I went 100% I. I guess I am chasing the market, but I'm getting real tired of trying to second guess a pullback that may never come. I started to allude to yesterday's last comment is that we may not get any pullback, but a progressive step down like '04 when from January to August things broke even. In that type of scenario, the way to make money is stay flexible - and ride the waves an established channel.

[Wheels]

I went 100&#37; I. I guess I am chasing the market, but I'm getting real tired of trying to second guess a pullback that may never come.

Advice that you have given me many times.

[Griffin]

LOL

Dave,

Your not the only person who doesn't take my advice, on almost every big mistake I made last year, I could point to a comment where I wrote days before not to do exactly what I did. :D

And here I am doing it again!


Advice that you have given me many times.

[Griffin]

I'm staying in the I-fund for the day. It seems that the market is starting to like these earnings reports. I think we could see a slow climb domestically, nothing explosive, just that usual postering before an important report (PPI), with just enough positive action to let the I-fund catch up.

[Griffin]

PPI, CPI and the Beige, housing, initial claims and the Philly Fed book reports are due this week. The numbers being projected at Yahoo are not particularly good.

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

The predictions are indicitive of a soft landing and help pave the way towards a Fed rate drop. The most I would hope for out of the next meeting would be a unanimous decision to hold the rate even. The market could see things differently and actually be disappointed if we don't get a cut. I don't think we are quite to that point of anticipation. The earnings reports seem to be coming in solid enough to dismiss an impending recession. Well's Fargo is showing good earning despite the lower demand for mortgages.

With all that said, I do not fear this weeks reports. I am going to be aggressive.

Last note, I have decided that I am going back to last years strategy of managing things from a multi day perspective and abandon the "long term critical points" approach. However, I may go to a multifund approach.

[Griffin]

I'm moving to the F-fund not as a defensive move but because I believe we will get good numbers and have a very positive day for bonds, while the stocks funds twiddle their thumbs. This is intended as a one day move, then I will get back into stocks. This has nothing to do with what is happening today.

[Griffin]

Stuck on important business (yeah right....sounds good though) and missed the opportunity to move back into the I-Fund.

There is room in the 6 month channel to both the upside and the downside. Given the positive PPI numbers, the Beige book and earnings reports (Intel being the big exception of the day), I am bit suprised the market has not found a foot hold for the next push. Today's news was very chipper. I am actually a bit concerned about jumping back in at the moment. If the CPI numbers are good and we don't get a decent rally, I will become very concerned. I think it's fairly safe to say the Fed is going to hold. Their policy is working - I'm not sure that there is a whole lot of anticipation left around those numbers and the next move (which does not happen for another two weeks). I expected more controversy out of today.

Ultimately, when the news is all green lights, I'd expect the market to pull back and were getting closer to that point. If you don't understand this logic here it is: If we get decent CPI numbers tomorrow, the only thing left the market could hope for is a fed rate drop and some incredible earnings reports and it is widely held those are unreal expectations. Investors would have no reason to expect things to get better and therefore produce a return on new positions. The buying pressure drops and the selling pressure dominates.

i.e. Goldilocks may have run her course, unless we get into the same game as last year. The difference being the anticipation focused on rate hikes rather then rate halts. Just like last May, that train can only run so far.

Tomorrow should be interesting. Bad news may actually be good for the market and vice versa.

[350zCommTech]

I think it's fairly safe to say the Fed is going to hold. Their policy is working - I'm not sure that there is a whole lot of anticipation left around those numbers and the next move (which does not happen for another two weeks). I expected more controversy out of today.

If we get decent CPI numbers tomorrow, the only thing left the market could hope for is a fed rate drop and some incredible earnings reports and it is widely held those are unreal expectations. Investors would have no reason to expect things to get better and therefore produce a return on new positions. The buying pressure drops and the selling pressure dominates.

Tomorrow should be interesting. Bad news may actually be good for the market and vice versa.

Griffin,

I completely agree with you about the market wanting a rate cut in a bad way. The problem is that the Feds will not lower rates until it's too late. They will wait for negative job numbers and/or 0% GDP. All the talk about inflation is nothing but "yak". If they rasie the rate, it'll be the last nail in the coffin for homebuilders and home owners with ARMS and negative mortgages. I jumped back in hoping for good earnings and a lower dollar.

[Wheels]

Today's news was very chipper.

I think your logic is skewed by a weak premise. I didn't find today's news chipper at all. You mentioned Intel. But then there's PPI. While the core was in line the front line number was very high and the year over year was higher than last month as well. Then there was capacity utilization which was very high. Both seemed to indicate that the Fed is correct in still worrying about inflation and there will no easing anytime soon. The Beige book was mixed at best. Apple will be huge tonight.

[Griffin]

Dave,

Maybe the picture I painted was a little too rosey, but the market is not responding to those numbers. Things are not perfect, but the situation is reversing from what was being painted as the nightmare scenario.

The nightmare scenario is high inflation and low growth. The fear is that despite the Fed's efforts, we will see high inflation continue and, due to the housing bubble burst, the economy slip into a recession. Neither of those things appear to be occurring.

As I am writing this, the market is slipping into the red. Is this because the economic picture is bad, or is it because there is little room improvement at this juncture? Yes, things could be more perfect, but by how much and in what time frame?

Cap. Utilization at 81% is......what? nothing? neither inflationary or weak? Housing's good, unemployement's good. I'm not sure where you see the weak link?

I guess to debunk my hypothesis, I'm looking for a reason why economic conditions could significantly improve, attracting more buying.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070118/economy.html?.v=7

[Griffin]

This is what I was trying to hint at yesterday.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070118/wall_street.html?.v=23

[Griffin]

Griffin,

I completely agree with you about the market wanting a rate cut in a bad way. The problem is that the Feds will not lower rates until it's too late. They will wait for negative job numbers and/or 0% GDP. All the talk about inflation is nothing but "yak". If they rasie the rate, it'll be the last nail in the coffin for homebuilders and home owners with ARMS and negative mortgages. I jumped back in hoping for good earnings and a lower dollar.


350z,

Under a Greenspan led Fed, I would be making the same assumption. However, Bernake may be a little more responsive to changing conditions. Back in May, the talking heads were saying that the Fed would hike to 6.0% and crush the economy. That didn't happen and they are allowing the current rates to run their course. I'm sure the corporate types will be screaming for a rate drop long before the Fed is willing to go down that path. Don't let the "yak" cause you to make risky decisions, but that is easier said then done. I consider inflation to be a serious issue and I am supportive of the Fed's stance on inflation as it is currently being addressed.

[Griffin]

I'm bummed about missing the move back into the I yesterday, but life goes on. I'm still sitting in the F-fund and now I'm looking for an opportunity to slip back into stocks.

Today's bounce in the I-fund evens the score between it and the S-fund, putting the dollar index back in the driver's seat. I'm now looking for a new good buying opportunity. As long as the trend is up and sub-model J stays on a buy, I will stay aggressive. I expect to move on Monday.