F R O "FrizzB. Rolo Oscillator ACCOUNT TALK

[Frizz B.]

Go get them Rolo.

[Rolo]

hehe...Oh, now I feel pressure! lol

Attachedis a screenshot of the FRO as of June 4th.

Notation:
δ = Differential
σ = Standard Deviation, upper or lower
1σ = One standard deviation, 68% of the time
2σ = Two standard deviations, 95% of the time
3σ = Three standard deviations, 99.7% of the time
See this link (http://www-stat.stanford.edu/~naras/jsm/NormalDensity/NormalDensity.html) for more information.

If the σ listed are higher, I am bullish; if lower, bearish.

[line]

{Fund} = δ / {zero-base} / {1σ} / {2σ} {last tick direction}

Sδ=295:277/304/330 :}

Cδ=101:97/113/129 :}

Iδ=35:30/18/6 :{

[line]

My allocation is holding at 70S/30C

[Frizz B.]

I have updated my highs and lows for the S to I, and the S to F differentials. With Rolo's help, we have taken the top high's and low's in each cycle and then divided that by the amt of entries.

F FUND = HIGH'S (1617/5=323) LOW'S (1235/5=247)

I FUND = HIGH'S (395/9=44) LOW'S (103/8=13)

I am going to do a 6 month history, so after June, I will be disregarding theJanuary's high's and low's and adding the July's high's and low's, and update accordingly. With this information, I am looking for these numbers.

F FUND will be in the range of 270 to 315, and the I FUND will be 20 to 40.

Rolo, what is your opinion.

[Frizz B.]

Rolo was answering, while I was answering, kool, he beat me to it.

[Rolo]

At first, I agreed; then I remembered why I used standard deviations. The normal distribution process "clips" those extraordinary highs for you (third SD). Read the above link I posted for an explanation and illustration.

You can "tighten" the SD's on the spreadsheet by playing with the zero-base. If you lengthen the moving average duration, you will get a smoother, less volatile curve. However, you lose accuracy when the market is more volatile.

I intend to re-examine the way I calculate zero-base; it is a simple moving average and I want to use exponential moving averages as soon as I figure out how...and what that exactly means, heh.

[Rolo]

haha...did it again.

[Frizz B.]

Tell you the truth Rolo, I had alot of people not understanding what I was doing, and how I was doing it. Now with yours in the mix they will totally be confused. Thanks

[Rolo]

Frizz B. wrote:
Tell you the truth Rolo, I had alot of people not understanding what I was doing, and how I was doing it. Now with yours in the mix they will totally be confused. Thanks
LOL!

But I made a picture! :D

[oneyoungbuck]

your right, i am confused.

[Frizz B.]

Rolo, you are the one who made the pictures, now you get to explain it.

[Rolo]

Awwwwwoh! :cool:

Okay.


The three fund's plotted, from top down: S, C, I

The yellow line is the differential (δ, lower-case Greek Delta) as designed by FrizzB no ee.

The grey line is the "zero-base", as explained by FrizzB no ee as, "You have to adjust...market conditions." I just plotted a moving average to show the "center".

The orange line marks one standard deviation (σ, lower-case Greek Sigma, or English SD) above the zero-base, and the lime line is 1σ below. These attempt to plotthe high and low differentials Frizz mentions. It is no coincidence that he observed those numbers, for the differential will stay within 1σ 68% of the time.

The red and green lines mark 2σ (two standard deviations). These plot the times Frizz says "I have seen it go as high as..." The δ will stay within 2σ 95% of the time.

Hover over the linesin the spreadsheetto see their values. Buy points are when the δ is low and sell signals are when it is high. For the eye-opener, correlate the δ peaks and valleys to the fund's share price by date and imagine buying and selling accordingly.

Download, unzip the attachment and open it. You can highlight and copy the whole row of share prices from the TSP site and paste it into the G Fund's cell for the daily update; the entire row will fit perfectly. Next, change the "G43" in the yellow cells to G42. This is to include the current date in the standard deviation formula. Click on the chart tab at the bottom.

[Frizz B.]

We are at 295 today, if at 8:45 central time, we are above a 1% gain in the S fund, I will be transferring my funds to the G fund. At 1% we will be at 308 and hopefully it will still climb. I wish we could trade at the end of the day for tommorrow, instead of having to be waiting for the close.

[Rolo]

Noooooooooooooooo! heh

I am shooting for 2σ, Sδ around 330 given the way things are going.

[Frizz B.]

OK, I will trust you, this time, will wait. When does greenspan talk again, if it is soon, Iam thinking of getting out on that day.

[Rolo]

Oh....Scheiße....now I feel pressure! {need a whincing smiley here}

Another feel-good indicator is the tight trading ranges recently. If they were wide and loose, what I call "unstable", I do not think I would have such bullish conviction.

Plus, a lot of stong stocks have been breaking out and advancing.

And, since everyone else is bailing, and I am the only one staying, that makes you the heard, and me the correct contrarian. :D a.k.a. The Dissident Index



Hehe, I just got this:




The following Stock Alert has been triggered compliments of Scottrade.com.

KNIGHTSBRIDGE TANKERS LTD (VLCCF) - Volume exceeded 22-day average by over 25.0%

Volume: 340099.00 at

Price when alert was set: 17.79 on 05/03/04 15:55:47 EST



Current Quote for VLCCF

Last: 24.70

Change: 1.02 (4.31 %) :^

High: 24.70

Low: 24.15

Annual High: 24.70

Annual Low: 5.47

Previous Close: 23.68

Volume: 340099

100-Day Avg. Volume: 237680

200-Day Moving Avg: 14.46

DJIA: 10333.72 (+90.9)

NASDAQ: 2002.20 (+23.6)

S&P500: 1134.00 (+11.5)

Click here to place a trade. http://www.scottrade.com (http://www.scottrade.com/)

Have your account number and password ready.

[Frizz B.]

I am now planning on riding the wave until it starts to crest. I have to many times, mainly on the way down, traded to soon and did not get the full impact of the wave. Always came back, my way, but really could of done better. So I am looking for the 325 mark, or a pull back.

[Rolo]

heheheyaha, yeah you miss the climax if you pull out too soon.

[Rolo]

This is what the FRO would look like if the I and S dropped 1% tomorrow, and the C dropped 0.4%. Will there be profit-taking? Will there be a breather? Will the rally continue? Do I want to bail for Wednesday? Nah, maybe Thursday, earliest.

I'm wondering if a C-F δ would be more helpful.

[Frizz B.]

Good possibility, if we have a good morning, time will be to change and take the profit, and then wait for the ground to give way.

[Rolo]

The seasonal chart has me a little concerned, but it is too late to do anything about it now. Well, you could still bail after the 6th day's historical loss and save yourself from the 7th day's.

Tentatively, I am thinking Monday's (formerly Friday's) close is time to sell. If Thursday is a black day, I think Monday will be a white day.

Hopefully, today will see a slim trading range near yesterday's high, keeping the support above 1135, and then a continuation of the run-up tomorrow and Thursday.

[Frizz B.]

F differential is at 317, my top used to be 320, did hit at 331 and 341 but came back dramatically. Up or down, my move today is the G fund, hopefully it will continue on the upside.

[Rolo]

Wow, this is tempting, but I am going to stand pat at least one more day. If tomorrow is a long white day with the same high as today and yesterday, then I think that is a sign of resistance and time to bail. It would be nice if there were a late-day reversal. :)

This may be the expected 1-3-day pullback, in which case I do not want to miss the continuing run-up. It's 50/50, so I will wait for something to sway me in one direction or another.

We're still within the 2% deviation from the moving average; if we were on it or above it, I would be inclined to sell.



heh, My VLCCF opened 5.4% higher today, the only green onmy board, andcurrently up 2%. haha, man, that was supposed to be my "safe, dividend-paying stock" and it is my fastest grower. Too funny.

[tsptalk]

Are you guys going to start a "FRO Account" so we can see your transactions in a simple format (i.e.: Moving to 20% G, 80% Setc...) or are you going to use Frizz B's Account?

You can expain the analysis in "FRO Account Talk" but I'd love to see the transfers and the returnssimplified here, unless you are using Frizz B's Account, so anyone who follows it can quickly see what your current allocation is.

That would be great! If you are using Frizz B's account, I could change the name if you'd like.

Thanks!

[Frizz B.]

I dont mind if you change the name, but although we have the FRO, we still have different opinions on when to trade.

[Rolo]

Right.

I am going to make a Rolo Account topic as soon as I make a transfer. :D

Depending on the market in the next few days, it will either be perceived as "whooOOOOoooo!" or the "Col. Custer Account". :oo

[Rolo]

Crud. I forgot to look at the FRO last night! :( heh, I worked on ptcrew v2 non-stop, and I mean non-stop.

What are today's numbers? Can someone post a pic? (Save Excel spreadsheet as a Web page and attatch the image001.gif to a post.)

[Rolo]

This is what the FRO would look like if S and C go up 2 cents higher than last Monday's closing prices, which I hope/anticipate they will do. Sδ would be a high 319 and Cδat 103, a little higher than the MA.

The FROis begging me to ditch the S fund. It did not spike to 2σ like I thought it may, but has been drifting upwards. Statistically, that will not last. Three possibilities:


The jump up Monday will likely correct to the drifting MA and probably below. Monday would be a good sell for S.
The bears and bulls still at stalemate. We would still be high enough for a good sell for S. It will probably get worse before it gets better.
The bulls fumbe for whatever reason. A 1% drop would put S right at MA. This isleast favourable. If soldand the rally resumes, you will missit. If S continues to drop, then you avoided the dip and didn't cash out too soon.So, 2.5 reasons to sell, and .5 reasons to hold S. Perhaps I should have 16.6% in S? :D

Now C fund's possibilites:


0.6% gain in C and 1.2% gain in S puts Cδ at zero-base, rising. Switching from S to C would be advantageous if C were to continue rising. Selling 50/50 bad/good.
No change sends Cδ below zero-base. Bad sell.
1% Drop sends Cδ below zero-base. Bad sell.From 30%C/70%S to 50%C/17%S/33%G?

heh...I don't know if I am capitalising on the FRO or bastardising it. :)

[Rolo]

Okay, several scenarios in the FRO for Monday make a transfer from S to C a good move. Plus, C has been kicking S's butt lately. I also think C's lower volatility and being less prone to drops is a good idea in this environment. Of course, interest rate hikes looming ahead is the biggest factor. I wish I had done this last week, but I am really not used to C beating S. :zz

I put in a transfer for Monday close, 70C/30S. Since I do not want to get out of stocks, the S-Cδ is most useful.

If S drops and C rises in price Monday, then D'OH! But medium-term gains should make up for it in that case.

[Frizz B.]

[line]
Okay, several scenarios in the FRO for Monday make a transfer from S to C a good move. Plus, C has been kicking S's butt lately
[line]
Sorry Rolo, I have to disagree, One month ago on May 10th, C fund was 11.45 now at 11.99 a gain of .54 and the S fund was at 12.19 on May 10th, now at 12.88, a gain of .69, My differential #'s still show that when the market is going up the S fund does better than the C fund. The differentials are (F fund = to 299, C fund = to 89, and the I fund = 48). The F fund diff was at 315 which was a good time to move to the G fund,which I did. My differential still shows me that the F fund differential should still go down. We only hit at 315 for the high this time, so I will be looking for a 290 differential, then I will decide if I will stay in the G or move to the S or I fund.

[Rolo]

Ahhhh...I am doing it again....I keep mixing semi-contradictory strategies...or, rather, not sticking to one strategy by bouncing back and forth unwittingly. I think I am mixingmedium-term thought with market-timing/active trading. So, if you see me do that, smack me in the head, please.

Here is the big question, I think: Will the S/C funds go any lower than they are now anytime soon? (a low enough dip to move TSP funds, that is)

If we have a completely level market before it resumes its uptrend, I would hate to be waiting for a buy point. I really think that is what it is going to do. (I cannot qualify that, though, heh.)

I think it will top Monday or Tuesday (I am thinking Tuesday) and then flatline for a couple of weeks. My lack-of-a-better-plan is to sell most of S for more C on Monday, then sell them both on Tuesday for G.

I should be on Monday morning to watch what happens to see if I want to change or cancelmy transfer.

[Frizz B.]

F differential is now at 285, I will probably be swithching to the S fund tommorrow before the 11:00 central time.

[oneyoungbuck]

As of now the differentials are C87, F293, and I43. I am going 25G, 75S for tomorrow. How does that sound to you?

[Frizz B.]

Looks good, I do like to play 100 % all the way, but this is your choice.

[Rolo]

Frizz B. wrote:
F differential is now at 285, I will probably be swithching to the S fund tommorrow before the 11:00 central time.
A transfer for Wednesday close, Frizz?

[Frizz B.]

Sorry, that was a transfer for todays close, I move my shares to the S fund, a little to late, but lets not hope a true boner :s

[Rolo]

ooooooooooOOOOOOOOOaaahhhhhhhhh HA HA haaaaaaaaaa....nuts.

Something just hit me.

The Cδ is played inversely--when it is low, that means the S is cheaper/C is more expensive, relative to each other, so that would be a sell point.

Conversely, when Cδ is high, there is a larger difference between the S and C, which means either or both, S is expensive, C is cheap, relative to each other.

So, if Sδ is low, Cδ is low, S price is low, C price is high.

If Sδ is low, Cδ is high, both prices are low.

If Sδ is high, Cδ is low, both prices are high. Trading S for C (what I did yesterday) is the last friggin' thing you want to do. (Why didn't this hit me before I traded?)

If Sδ is high, Cδ is high, S price is high, C price is low, relatively speaking.

So I should flip the red/green lines on the Cσ. Should the I's be flipped as well? (I do not want to think about Iδ yet; let me rest first.)

Do I "C" this correctly, Frizz?



True fact: I literally understood Einstein's Theory of Relativity when I was a teenager much more easily than yours now! ;)

[Frizz B.]

With all your symbols, I am confused. I do not have a S differential. Everything is calculated from the S fund. The higher the F differential to the S, (310 or higher, start thinking G or F fund). I only use the C differential as a guide, for I am not going to play the C at this point, either the S fund or the I fund. When moving into the S or I funds, if the I differential is higher than 30, I will play the S, and if the I differential is lower than 30 I will play the I fund. If I start to notice that the C funds starts to outdo the S fund, when the market is rising, I might consider the C fund, but it hasn't as of yet.

[Rolo]

hehehe, Frizz, are you a politician? 'Cos you sure can answer a question without answering the question. :)

Sδ = S-F differential

Cδ =S-C differential

Translating:

If S-C = high then S is outrunning C.

If S-C = low thenC is gaining on S.

What is your YTD gain as % in $?

[Frizz B.]

Sδ = S-F differential
[line]


THat is what I thought, I would change he Sδ to Fδ, since everything is based on the S fund the S should not be used.

If you notice, when the funds are making money the S fund outgains the C, this is when the Cδ is low, and when you move out of the stocks to the G fund, and the market falls, then the Cδ usually is outgaining the S fund, but both funds are still losing money.

My actually money gain right now is 11.47%

[Rolo]

Frizz B. wrote:
THat is what I thought, I would change he Sδ to Fδ, since everything is based on the S fund the S should not be used.

That makes sense....duh...damned Polish genes! heh. Ya, Sδ is wrong, Fδ it is; that de-obfuscates the details for me now.

11-1/2% YTD...muaha...I shall do my favourite KoRn album, "Follow the Leader".

[Frizz B.]

11-1/2% YTD...muaha...I shall do my favourite KoRn album, "Follow the Leader".[/font]]




Truth is, and I know you are not supposed to talk about the past, but, if I only knew then, what I know now. I started with the C and S funds, although I made my share when I changed from the S to the C, I lost quite abit of funds on my first 3 trades. Then I realized that the C fund was picking up in the differential, the C fund was still losing quite abit in the share price. Then I did switch to using the F fund, still lost funds every time. Now I will use the G fund, unless the F fund price is 9.87 or lower. This was the first time that I have made a trade and actually picked up in the cash department.



If I did know then what I know now, I would be up over 18% YTD.

My new wrinkle I am thinking about, Lows are 285 to 290 and Highs 310 to 315, If the low hits at 285 and I moved back to the S fund, then the F differential, goes down another 15 pts. I will move back to the G fund for one day. The short history that I have been working with, when the F differrential goes past the 285 mark, it goes way past the 285 mark, usually down in the 225 to 250 range.

[Frizz B.]

Sorry, I have to eat my words :sMy best 2 months of investments have been my first 2 months investing. Jan and Feb. I was up 8.3%, so the next four months only up 3.1%.

[Rolo]

Frizz B. wrote:
Sorry, I have to eat my words :sMy best 2 months of investments have been my first 2 months investing. Jan and Feb. I was up 8.3%, so the next four months only up 3.1%.
hahaha, "Only". Most of April and May had nothing to offer, though, and you could have forfeited all of your gains. Your record is outstanding and...

"Never argue with the market--you will lose every time."
-I forget who

[Frizz B.]

I finally have the time to write, been working steady, I did move my funds into the G fund this morning. Differential is holding steady at 315, good time to make the move, The G fund should hit its fifth day today at 10.44, and I am hopefully that it will make its move on the sixth day. I will update my account, in the next few days, when I can get the time.

:dude:

[tsptalk]

Rolo wrote:
Frizz B. wrote:
Sorry, I have to eat my words :sMy best 2 months of investments have been my first 2 months investing. Jan and Feb. I was up 8.3%, so the next four months only up 3.1%.
hahaha, "Only". Most of April and May had nothing to offer, though, and you could have forfeited all of your gains. Your record is outstanding and...



"Never argue with the market--you will lose every time."
-I forget who

Not to discredit Frizz, but I just wanted to disclose to our readers that those returns (going back to January) are not documented here.Frizz started his hypothetical account here in early April.

I have no reason to doubtFrizz. But I wanted to set the record straight for everyone. I'm looking forward to seeing the "FRO's"year end results because I think we are primed for another good year.

Tom

[Frizz B.]

On June 16th Rolo asked me what my YTD was, this was my answer, I also stated that the more I did the FRO the more I thought I knew, then I checked my stats, and that is why I had to eat my words.

[oneyoungbuck]

Whats up Frizz? I have a question about an entry on the 5th of June. Could you please elaborate on how you take the top highs and lows of each cycle then divide by the number of entries. Is this the one month high and low? or is it more than that? The reason is I would like to start tracking the Highs and Lows on my own, you have been more than helpful to me so far, your numbers have been very accurate and I am doing well with my thrift. Thank you for the help.

[Frizz B.]

couple of things that I have done, I looked up the past history of the wilshire 4500 and copied it from Dec 31 onto my spreadsheet, I then matched this up to the dates of our share price. I did this not only so I have my differential, but I also have the highs and lows of the original share price to work with. In another collumn, go through the #'s and pick out the top and bottom10 prices. Put them together in a row and use the fx key at the top of the excel spread sheet. You then should be abel to hit enter twice and it will give you the average of the highs and lows to use for a guide. I am doing this system with my online trading. The interesting thing is almost every all the differentials for RSP, VUG, PWC, MDY, V V, the S and the I funds are all close to the highs for the year, that is why I am in the G fund for now.

Hope this helps :dude:

[Frizz B.]

Although my differential says it time to sell and I am in the G fund, I have always stated that if you feel the market is going to change you have to change your #'s with it. With all that I have heard, I also believe that the stocks will start to rise to a new level and so with that I will be moving my funds to the S fund today and hopefully ride the wave to a new level and then I will have to adjust my differential #'s accordingly. It will be interesting how high the differential will go. :dude:

[Rolo]

You still have QQQ short, Frizz?

[Frizz B.]

No, I bought my short long ago, and went with PWC short, then they told be I had 24 hrs to buy that or they would do it for me. So I Bought my PWC and actually made $24, but my trades cost me $28. I have been purchasing QQQ for about 2 weeks now. Started when it was at $36.02 and just purchased this morning At $34.81. My break even will be when it hits at $35.80. I am looking for it to get to 36.30 to 36.75, then I will sell and wait for it to get above 37 or back to the 35 range before I do anything else. :dude:

What's going on with the "Fro"?

[Frizz B.]

everything is go in the S fund. we are at the low marks in the FRO, so the FRO says to play the S fund and play it for a while.:dude:

Cool, I figured as much since I'm 100% S also. :^I sort of wish I had put some in the I when my indicators said to, but it'll okayy.

[tsptalk]

Where is FrizzB and Rolo? Last I read Frizz was 100% S and Rolo is 80% F, 20% G.

Is this accurate guys or have you bailed on us?

Tom

[oneyoungbuck]

Yeah, no kidding. I also wanted to know if Frizz changed his differentials. Where have they been? Frizz was very informing as well as Rolo. Come on back guys!