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userque
06-04-2015, 12:02 PM
By request, I will post NUGT/DUST signals from my system--for a short while. This is for entertainment purposes only. Please do not (blindly?) follow.

If I am unable to personally trade due to Settlement Rules, etc., I will nevertheless still post the signals.

The system can trade daily, but I haven't been using it for that. So when it enters a trade, the expectation is that it'll be in that trade for at least a few days. Of course, this will not always pan out.

Current signal is to EXIT DUST and go LONG NUGT, (both) at today's close.

Recordkeeping here will begin with the above LONG NUGT position.

jkenjohnson
06-04-2015, 01:04 PM
By request, I will post NUGT/DUST signals from my system--for a short while. This is for entertainment purposes only. Please do not (blindly?) follow.

If I am unable to personally trade due to Settlement Rules, etc., I will nevertheless still post the signals.

The system can trade daily, but I haven't been using it for that. So when it enters a trade, the expectation is that it'll be in that trade for at least a few days. Of course, this will not always pan out.


Current signal is to EXIT DUST and go LONG NUGT, (both) at today's close.

Recordkeeping here will begin with the above LONG NUGT position.


Gracias. I hope you blow the roof off.

userque
06-07-2015, 11:07 AM
Going public has already yielded dividends. (1) (Re-)Discovered that GDX forecasts are (much) less accurate than the more predictable US TSP Stock funds. Rather than trying to hold trades for a few days; I'm now daytrading again. Of course, I have to adjust my money-management/position-sizing to adhere to Settlement Rules. (2) I've customized/optimized the GDX machine for daytrading. As I post, is how I'm actually trading.

System says SHORT the open for 6-8-14. (Again, my system trades the open or close. It is possible to get better prices, if you have the skills, by trading intraday. For example, if price is rising from the open, wait for a plateau to short.)

By 'SHORT the open,' I mean EXIT NUGT and go LONG DUST.

userque
06-09-2015, 02:53 PM
LONG at CLOSE 6-9-15

I guess I'll eventually put all of these calls in a spreadsheet :blink:

jkenjohnson
06-10-2015, 08:11 AM
LONG at CLOSE 6-9-15

I guess I'll eventually put all of these calls in a spreadsheet :blink:

Thanks for posting.

userque
06-10-2015, 08:21 AM
Thanks for posting.

You're welcome.

userque
06-10-2015, 08:21 AM
06-10-15 SHORT OPEN

userque
06-10-2015, 02:52 PM
06-10-15 LONG CLOSE

userque
06-11-2015, 04:52 AM
06-11-15 NO CHANGE AT OPEN

(Maintain LONG/SHORT position of most recent LONG/SHORT Signal.)

jkenjohnson
06-11-2015, 08:37 AM
06-11-15 NO CHANGE AT OPEN

(Maintain LONG/SHORT position of most recent LONG/SHORT Signal.)

Where's that spreadsheet you were going to develop? If you don't I'll have to set up my own. :smile:

userque
06-11-2015, 08:40 AM
Where's that spreadsheet you were going to develop? If you don't I'll have to set up my own. :smile:

Probably on Friday...no later than this weekend...but...the more the merrier :smile:

userque
06-11-2015, 02:45 PM
06-11-15 SHORT AT CLOSE

userque
06-12-2015, 07:40 AM
06-12-15 NO FORECAST AT OPEN

(I'd like to believe that) This project has led to a major upgrade to not only my GDX machine, but also the TSP model. The core is the same but how it is applied, and to what data--is being upgraded. I was unable to generate a forecast as a result of this work.

The new models will be considerably slower as there are many more computations involved.

I make unannounced improvements all the time. I've noticed this one since it has led to the cancellation of a forecast.

While this project is for entertainment purposes, I actually trade the forecasts. In the event I stop trading the forecasts, I'll post to that effect.

I hope to have a forecast for the CLOSE today.

I expect to complete the spreadsheet this weekend.

jkenjohnson
06-12-2015, 10:07 AM
Probably on Friday...no later than this weekend...but...the more the merrier :smile:

Thanks buddy.

userque
06-12-2015, 02:50 PM
06-12-15 LONG AT CLOSE

jkenjohnson
06-14-2015, 08:43 AM
06-12-15 LONG AT CLOSE

Thanks

userque
06-14-2015, 08:54 AM
Thanks

'Welcome

userque
06-15-2015, 07:52 AM
06-15-15 SHORT AT OPEN

SPREADSHEET:
34047

I'll likely post the updated spreadsheet weekly rather than daily/per-trade.

jkenjohnson
06-15-2015, 08:48 AM
06-15-15 SHORT AT OPEN

SPREADSHEET:
34047

I'll likely post the updated spreadsheet weekly rather than daily/per-trade.

Awesome

userque
06-15-2015, 01:23 PM
06-15-15 NO CHANGE AT CLOSE

userque
06-15-2015, 01:31 PM
06-15-15 SHORT AT OPEN

SPREADSHEET:
34047

I'll likely post the updated spreadsheet weekly rather than daily/per-trade.

A buddy brought to my attention that those don't seem to be NUGT/DUST prices!:blink: Ha, he's right! Those are GDX prices (the 'underlying' my system uses to generate NUGT/DUST signals)!

I'll repost a corrected sheet today/tonight.

userque
06-15-2015, 01:44 PM
CORRECTED SPREADSHEET:
34049

userque
06-15-2015, 02:29 PM
06-15-15 NO CHANGE AT CLOSE

DISREGARD:

In light of the SPREADSHEET evidence, I've downgraded my system to the previous version before my last 'upgrade.' Thus, a new call:

06-15-15 LONG AT CLOSE
MAINTAIN NO CHANGE AT CLOSE CALL

userque
06-16-2015, 02:50 PM
06-16-15 LONG AT CLOSE

userque
06-16-2015, 03:05 PM
Found another SNAFU with the spreadsheet.

Where the trades were SHORT, the spreadsheet reversed the % return. (...Since I actually don't go SHORT but instead LONG an inverse ETF...)

I will post a corrected and updated spreadsheet shortly.

EDIT: To be clearer, going forward, I'm using NUGT/DUST instead of LONG/SHORT

userque
06-16-2015, 03:16 PM
CORRECTED AND UPDATED SPREADSHEET:

34069

userque
06-16-2015, 04:04 PM
Tomorrow, I may add a "Balance" column to the spreadsheet to simulate the trades against a $10,000? initial balance account at $10/trade.

NOTE: The simulation will always be fully invested. In real life, you can't buy half of a share of NUGT, for example. You would be stuck with an uninvested $4.50 in your account. This simulation, in order to Keep It Simple, will behave as though it invested that extra $4.50. So instead of buying 1000 or so shares, it would simulate buying 1000.5 shares.

I also may add metrics like an Annualized Return, etc. later:
How to Annualize a Rate of Return (http://allfinancialmatters.com/2008/07/23/how-to-annualize-a-rate-of-return/)

EDIT:

I enter prices based upon Yahoo or Google soon after the close. Closing prices can change slightly after the closing bell. To me, the variance is no big deal and may actually simulate real world trade fill variations. Even so, I may make corrections if you post here that a closing/opening spreadsheet entry doesn't match the settled closing/opening price quote.

userque
06-16-2015, 06:36 PM
NOTE: The simulation will always be fully invested. In real life, you can't buy half of a share of NUGT, for example. You would be stuck with an uninvested $4.50 in your account. This simulation, in order to Keep It Simple, will behave as though it invested that extra $4.50. So instead of buying 1000 or so shares, it would simulate buying 1000.5 shares.

NOTE FURTHER: That if this project lasts longer than I expect it to, I'll probably get around to fixing the above so that it behaves exactly like a real brokerage account.

userque
06-17-2015, 08:25 AM
Upgraded Spreadsheet with Balance, Annualized Return, etc. Slapped it together rather quickly; let me know if you find a glitch, etc.:

34070

Annualized ROR is calculated using calendar days and a 365 day year.

EDIT: I believe I have to add "+1" to the calendar-days formula. This will slightly decrease the annualized return. This change will be reflected in the next spreadsheet posting.

userque
06-17-2015, 02:10 PM
06-17-15 NO CHANGE AT CLOSE

userque
06-17-2015, 05:14 PM
Discovered minor glitch.

Now, the spreadsheet deducts $10 per trade; however, each transition from NUGT to DUST and vice versa requires two trades (one to exit, one to enter)...will correct for next spreadsheet posting.

userque
06-17-2015, 10:32 PM
06-18-15 DUST AT OPEN

(Exit NUGT at OPEN as well, of course.)

userque
06-18-2015, 09:00 AM
06-18-15 NUGT AT CLOSE

SPREADSHEET UPDATE:

34084

May begin posting a chart later.

weatherweenie
06-18-2015, 11:31 AM
06-18-15 NUGT AT CLOSE

SPREADSHEET UPDATE:

34084

May begin posting a chart later.

How does a 2.75% increase in DUST result in a decrease in balance?

userque
06-18-2015, 11:33 AM
How does a 2.75% increase in DUST result in a decrease in balance?

You lost me.

Stoplight
06-18-2015, 11:44 AM
How does a 2.75% increase in DUST result in a decrease in balance?

Are you reading the chart wrong ? Earliest trade is at bottom ; latest is at top ! That messed me up the first time I looked at it, too ! :smile:


Stoplight...

userque
06-18-2015, 11:46 AM
Are you reading the chart wrong ? Earliest trade is at bottom ; latest is at top ! That messed me up the first time I looked at it, too ! :smile:


Stoplight...

Thanks! Hopefully that's ww's issue...I never thought that would be a problem with the DATES logged on each line.

weatherweenie
06-18-2015, 11:50 AM
Duh, me


Are you reading the chart wrong ? Earliest trade is at bottom ; latest is at top ! That messed me up the first time I looked at it, too ! :smile:


Stoplight...

userque
06-18-2015, 11:52 AM
Note to Self. Self, add a START AT BOTTOM banner at the bottom of the chart.:smile:

userque
06-18-2015, 11:54 AM
May begin posting a chart later.

By 'chart,' I mean 'line chart/graph'

userque
06-18-2015, 08:24 PM
SPREADSHEET UPDATE:

34103

userque
06-18-2015, 10:19 PM
06-19-15 DUST AT OPEN

userque
06-19-2015, 02:31 PM
06-19-15 NO CHANGE AT CLOSE

SPREADSHEET UPDATE:

34112

userque
06-20-2015, 03:50 PM
06-22-15 NO CHANGE AT OPEN

jkenjohnson
06-22-2015, 06:58 AM
06-19-15 NO CHANGE AT CLOSE

SPREADSHEET UPDATE:

34112

Great work. You are smoking it.

userque
06-22-2015, 07:11 AM
Great work. You are smoking it.

Thanks...so far so good...(since 1st week in May actually).

jpcavin
06-22-2015, 02:02 PM
06-19-15 NO CHANGE AT CLOSE

SPREADSHEET UPDATE:

34112

You're killing it Señor Fawkes.

userque
06-22-2015, 02:07 PM
You're killing it Señor Fawkes.

Muchas gracias Señora.

userque
06-22-2015, 02:08 PM
06-22-15 NO CHANGE AT CLOSE

userque
06-23-2015, 08:14 AM
06-23-15 NUGT AT OPEN

userque
06-23-2015, 08:37 AM
SPREADSHEET UPDATED:

34168

userque
06-23-2015, 02:53 PM
06-23-15 NO CHANGE AT CLOSE

I would love to have these signals ready sooner than later; but sometimes, the system needs every possible minute (and then some) to try to find a better solution.

userque
06-23-2015, 04:49 PM
06-24-15 NO CHANGE AT OPEN

userque
06-23-2015, 05:56 PM
SPREADSHEET UPDATED:

34168

"06/22/2015" should read "06/23/2015."

I will correct for next update.

userque
06-24-2015, 01:37 PM
06-24-15 NO CHANGE AT CLOSE

userque
06-25-2015, 08:25 AM
06-25-15 DUST AT OPEN

userque
06-25-2015, 08:44 AM
SPREADSHEET UPDATED:

34212

RealMoneyIssues
06-25-2015, 12:59 PM
06-25-15 DUST AT OPEN

userQ, are you able to trade this pre/after-market?

userque
06-25-2015, 01:01 PM
Because some folks were 'late' to the party, I'm thinking about extending the time for the free signals here beyond the 30 days.:smile:

userque
06-25-2015, 01:08 PM
userQ, are you able to trade this pre/after-market?

Good question. My signals are based upon opening and closing data only. (I can modify it to trade intraday...but that's another project.) BUT, if, for example, the signal is to Buy at OPEN; one may be able to buy before/after the open if they think they can get a better price. In other words:

The system is (currently) only comparing Opening and Closing prices/forecasts...it currently is not aware whether better prices exist pre-/post-market, or intraday.

Hope that answered your question, if not...I can try again.

RealMoneyIssues
06-25-2015, 01:14 PM
Good question. My signals are based upon opening and closing data only. (I can modify it to trade intraday...but that's another project.) BUT, if, for example, the signal is to Buy at OPEN; one may be able to buy before/after the open if they think they can get a better price. In other words:

The system is (currently) only comparing Opening and Closing prices/forecasts...it currently is not aware whether better prices exist pre-/post-market, or intraday.

Hope that answered your question, if not...I can try again.

I was just asking if YOU can trade NUGT/DUST pre/after-market because TDA gave me an issue this morning with it and I wasn't sure if it was a TDA or operator issue.

I assume I should be able to trade it, just wanted to make sure someone else wasn't having any issues.

userque
06-25-2015, 01:18 PM
I was just asking if YOU can trade NUGT/DUST pre/after-market because TDA gave me an issue this morning with it and I wasn't sure if it was a TDA or operator issue.

I assume I should be able to trade it, just wanted to make sure someone else wasn't having any issues.

No, I can't with Robinhood

RealMoneyIssues
06-25-2015, 01:21 PM
No, I can't with Robinhood

Ah, got my email, but don't have an iPhone. Did they ever upgrade to allow Android?

userque
06-25-2015, 01:26 PM
Ah, got my email, but don't have an iPhone. Did they ever upgrade to allow Android?

Was that you that told us about Robinhood...if so, big thanks!

They haven't emailed anything about Android, don't know what's taking so long. I ran out as soon as I got the invite and bought a new basic iPhone. I only use it to trade with.

I'll be glad when they finally support Android.

RealMoneyIssues
06-25-2015, 01:27 PM
Was that you that told us about Robinhood...if so, big thanks!

They haven't emailed anything about Android, don't know what's taking so long. I ran out as soon as I got the invite and bought a new basic iPhone. I only use it to trade with.

I'll be glad when they finally support Android.

Wasn't me, but I wasn't able to use the invite :(

userque
06-25-2015, 01:46 PM
Wasn't me, but I wasn't able to use the invite :(

I'll post here if/when they offer android.

k0nkuzh0n
06-25-2015, 02:15 PM
Was that you that told us about Robinhood...if so, big thanks!

You're welcome. Oh the irony! :laugh:

userque
06-25-2015, 02:17 PM
You're welcome. Oh the irony! :laugh:

Big Thanks:smile:

k0nkuzh0n
06-25-2015, 02:21 PM
There is a beta sign up for android. They sent out an email for it I believe several months ago, but I haven't heard anything more on it... no actual beta version available that I'm aware of yet.

userque
06-25-2015, 02:41 PM
There is a beta sign up for android. They sent out an email for it I believe several months ago, but I haven't heard anything more on it... no actual beta version available that I'm aware of yet.

Yeah...I forgot all about that

userque
06-25-2015, 02:42 PM
06-25-15 NO CHANGE AT CLOSE

jpcavin
06-25-2015, 02:45 PM
You can request beta access here. If you already asked, try again. Can't hurt.

https://robinhood.com/android/beta/

userque
06-26-2015, 08:14 AM
06-26-15 NO CHANGE AT OPEN

RealMoneyIssues
06-26-2015, 09:13 AM
In the money stop triggered, no cry no foul... probably bounce high by EOD :-(

userque
06-26-2015, 09:17 AM
In the money stop triggered, no cry no foul... probably bounce high by EOD :-(

If it makes you feel better; the system only slightly favored the GDX close being the low of the day over the open. Usually this means there won't be a wide spread between the opening and closing prices...but...these are only statistics.

EDIT: umm yeah, system wants to go long at close...but, it's too early to make that an official call yet.

RealMoneyIssues
06-26-2015, 09:22 AM
If it makes you feel better; the system only slightly favored the GDX close being the low of the day over the open. Usually this means there won't be a wide spread between the opening and closing prices...but...these are only statistics.

If I would have left it at an AT the money stop, I would still be in and not watching it bounce from here... I guess I thought the 17.01 resistence yesterday would have become support (or even number 17 too)...

Oh, well. We'll see what happens at the close... 2.5% for the day

jpcavin
06-26-2015, 09:35 AM
Darn it! I was waiting to buy NUGT at 8.34 :blink:

userque
06-26-2015, 09:38 AM
Darn it! I was waiting to buy NUGT at 8.34 :blink:

...one day, we just might.

jpcavin
06-26-2015, 09:43 AM
...one day, we just might.

Oh, never mind. I thought your system was still in NUGT.

userque
06-26-2015, 02:37 PM
06-26-15 NUGT AT CLOSE

RealMoneyIssues
06-26-2015, 02:48 PM
06-26-15 NUGT AT CLOSE

Too much going on to hold anything over the week-end, good luck.

China

Greece

We'll see where everything is before opening on Monday :)

Have a great week-end!

userque
06-26-2015, 03:02 PM
A.I. SYSTEM PROGRESS REPORT

It hunts well so far; and based upon its extremely adaptive algorithms and reliance upon fuzzy logic pattern matching of historical price actions--it ought to continue to hunt well. Time is the final judge, however.

DID

Doubled speed. The more calculations it can perform prior to the trading solution being needed; the more accurate the solution.

Extended general awareness of price action to the most recent 23 trading days (one month).

Continued the optimization of parameters.

TO DO

Add more fuzzy logic.

Create generic template so model can be used for other applications (sports betting, data mining, etc.).

Rebuild sheet from the ground up for better efficiency, etc.

userque
06-26-2015, 03:03 PM
Too much going on to hold anything over the week-end, good luck.

China

Greece

We'll see where everything is before opening on Monday :)

Have a great week-end!

Thanks...enjoy your weekend as well!

userque
06-26-2015, 03:10 PM
SPREADSHEET UPDATE:

34249

userque
06-26-2015, 03:26 PM
GRAPH:

34250

EDIT: Starting point should be $10000 (then dipping down to about $9600. Will correct for next graph.

userque
06-27-2015, 07:20 AM
I will add the SPY or SP500 to the graph as a comparison.

Also, I will go back to just having red and green as colors for the 'raw%' column.

userque
06-28-2015, 07:56 PM
06-29-15 NO CHANGE AT OPEN

konakathy
06-28-2015, 08:58 PM
I don't see the graphs or spreadsheets anymore since the software update. They are not showing up on iPhone, Mac or iPad, anyone else having problems?

userque
06-28-2015, 09:04 PM
I don't see the graphs or spreadsheets anymore since the software update. They are not showing up on iPhone, Mac or iPad, anyone else having problems?

I use android, but I'll post something in a few minutes to see if the update only affects 'old' posts.

tsptalk
06-28-2015, 09:06 PM
I don't see the graphs or spreadsheets anymore since the software update. They are not showing up on iPhone, Mac or iPad, anyone else having problems?

The forum software did not get updated. I had an issue and backed off and restored the old version. I did install a minor upgrade to PHP but that "shouldn't" be an issue.

userque
06-28-2015, 09:11 PM
TEST:
34265

konakathy
06-28-2015, 09:12 PM
That worked ... whatever you did! :D

userque
06-28-2015, 09:13 PM
The forum software did not get updated. I had an issue and backed off and restored the old version. I did install a minor upgrade to PHP but that "shouldn't" be an issue.

I assumed she was referring to some sort of Apple update:blink:

konakathy
06-28-2015, 09:16 PM
I assumed she was referring to some sort of Apple update:blink:

No. I thought the forum was down yesterday for updates/grades? I couldn't view some of the photos I posted last week either. I'll check to see if there are updates for Apple I need to install.

userque
06-28-2015, 09:19 PM
No. I thought the forum was down yesterday for updates/grades? I couldn't view some of the photos I posted last week either. I'll check to see if there are updates for Apple I need to install.

Ok, hope you can fix it.

userque
06-28-2015, 09:21 PM
...this does sound like a 'clearing the cache' problem.

EDIT: Try googling clearing the cache on mac etc.

EDIT2: My guess is that your stuff will refresh itself in a day or so, if you do nothing.

konakathy
06-28-2015, 09:43 PM
...this does sound like a 'clearing the cache' problem.

EDIT: Try googling clearing the cache on mac etc.

EDIT2: My guess is that your stuff will refresh itself in a day or so, if you do nothing.

I cleared the cache and that didn't work. I'll wait another day or two and see what happens.

Thank you !

userque
06-28-2015, 10:38 PM
I cleared the cache and that didn't work. I'll wait another day or two and see what happens.

Thank you !

Ok...another thing you can try for giggles, if you haven't already, is to log out of tsptalk, then log back in.

konakathy
06-29-2015, 01:07 AM
Ok...another thing you can try for giggles, if you haven't already, is to log out of tsptalk, then log back in.

I did try logging off and on...no go. This picture reflects all the giggling I'm going to do tonight.

34270

RealMoneyIssues
06-29-2015, 09:39 AM
gold miners haven't figured out what direction they are going yet this morning...

userque
06-29-2015, 09:49 AM
gold miners haven't figured out what direction they are going yet this morning...

Yeah, it seems to waffle a lot throughout the day...time will tell.

Btw, I've given the system today's opening price and am currently running the analysis for todays close; so far, it's wanting to stay in nugt, so there's that.

...thanks for sending that this morning!:smile:

RealMoneyIssues
06-29-2015, 10:47 AM
Yeah, it seems to waffle a lot throughout the day...time will tell.

Btw, I've given the system today's opening price and am currently running the analysis for todays close; so far, it's wanting to stay in nugt, so there's that.

...thanks for sending that this morning!:smile:

About to hit my limit stop... then it will bounce high since that is my luck...

userque
06-29-2015, 10:55 AM
About to hit my limit stop... then it will bounce high since that is my luck...

Yeah, I don't use price stops with this system (that's another speech), but position size can also be used manage risk. An analysis would have to be run to find which is most profitable, and with what parameters.

I personally believe trading this system balls to the wall is most profitable; but of course, you can't trust it like I can.

jpcavin
06-29-2015, 10:58 AM
Just got in at 8.45. Wish me luck :banana:

jpcavin
06-29-2015, 10:59 AM
Wow, I just made it drop. LOL sorry guys. :laugh:

userque
06-29-2015, 10:59 AM
Just got in at 8.45. Wish me luck :banana:

SWEET!

RealMoneyIssues
06-29-2015, 11:28 AM
Just got in at 8.45. Wish me luck :banana:

Good luck?

And congrats on a much better price than I...

userque
06-29-2015, 02:40 PM
06-29-15 NO CHANGE AT CLOSE

k0nkuzh0n
06-29-2015, 04:46 PM
Yeah, I don't use price stops with this system (that's another speech), but position size can also be used manage risk. An analysis would have to be run to find which is most profitable, and with what parameters.

I personally believe trading this system balls to the wall is most profitable; but of course, you can't trust it like I can.

How do you limit risk yourself? If you're investing 100% of your money every trade, you should probably change names with nuutt!

userque
06-29-2015, 05:23 PM
How do you limit risk yourself? If you're investing 100% of your money every trade, you should probably change names with nuutt!

Yikes!

The chart I post is example of 100% investment. Going 100% S for years is an example of 100% investment.

Risk is personal. Risk is not an absolute outcome. Everyone has an opinion as to what others should be doing.

Everyone should trade, with their money, as they see fit.

I could tell you more, but you and your buddy continue to pop up out of nowhere whenever I post successful calls (TNA/TZA in the past). Which is fine. But like I mentioned before, you still haven't answered any of my questions; and I've answered most, if not all (save today), of yours.:D

RealMoneyIssues
06-29-2015, 05:34 PM
Just got in at 8.45. Wish me luck :banana:

8.30 at close would have been better :notrust:

userque
06-29-2015, 05:39 PM
k0n,

I was referring to this chart. Now, neither of us knows exactly what the future markets hold; but in the here and now and past, I'm think I'm doing alright. When you actually see 'risk' giving me problem...do tell.


SPREADSHEET UPDATE:

34249

k0nkuzh0n
06-29-2015, 06:14 PM
k0n,

I was referring to this chart. Now, neither of us knows exactly what the future markets hold; but in the here and now and past, I'm think I'm doing alright. When you actually see 'risk' giving me problem...do tell.

Chart doesn't show up for me (in the original post, or in the quote).

I was just curious how you traded high-risk ETFs. I assumed you allocated only a portion of your funds to DUST/NUGT. But maybe that initial assumption was wrong, hence the joke.

Personally, the higher the volatility, the smaller sizes I use. In a TNA/TZA trade I'd trade lots of 10-20k. VIX/NUGT/DUST, I usually trade lots of 5-10k.

I was also curious, if you didn't trade 100% of your account value, if you did a fix amount (ish) each trade, or whether you rolled-in gains. I personally do not roll in gains... at least not in the short term. Long term (6 month+), as my account changes, my lot sizes change... whether that is up or down.

userque
06-29-2015, 06:32 PM
Chart doesn't show up for me (in the original post, or in the quote).

Basically, it shows my system turning 10k into 13.6k in 22 calendar days.


I was just curious how you traded high-risk ETFs. I assumed you allocated only a portion of your funds to DUST/NUGT. But maybe that initial assumption was wrong,

I have to allocate a portion as I am trading in a cash account and have to deal with the 3 day settlement rules. However, I maximize that allocation as best as I can.


hence the joke.

Everyone above age 5 knows that all jokes are meant to really be jokes. I am the ultimate decision maker with regard to whether someone is actually joking with me, or trying to be offensive.


Personally, the higher the volatility, the smaller sizes I use. In a TNA/TZA trade I'd trade lots of 10-20k. VIX/NUGT/DUST, I usually trade lots of 5-10k.

I was also curious, if you didn't trade 100% of your account value, if you did a fix amount (ish) each trade, or whether you rolled-in gains. I personally do not roll in gains... at least not in the short term. Long term (6 month+), as my account changes, my lot sizes change... whether that is up or down.

My plan is always, usually, to begin small, as profits grow, increase allocation exponentially; decrease with sustained losses. For the simulation, I went all-in.

My system generates signals. There is no way an unlicensed trader can meaningfully and legally give specific allocation advice, especially without knowing the life-details of the customer. A knowledgeable trader only needs the signals. They can figure their own allocations/stops.

IOW, my simulation allocations aren't meant to be followed. IMO, they illustrate the maximum potential of the system, and of course, at maximum risk. This risk can't be determined by a casual visitor to the forums, but instead by actual performance data...'what I do.'

konakathy
06-29-2015, 06:35 PM
Chart doesn't show up for me (in the original post, or in the quote).

I'm having the same problem. I thought Tom was gaslighting me this past weekend. :laugh: (Just kidding, Tom) :D

userque
06-29-2015, 06:40 PM
I'm having the same problem. I thought Tom was gaslighting me this past weekend. :laugh: (Just kidding, Tom) :D

Wow, you didn't see the one I just posted? OK, I'll find somewhere on the internet to post them, then post a link to that as a workaround.

Btw, the 1944 Gaslight was a good movie!

Gaslight (1944) - IMDb (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0036855/?ref_=nv_sr_1)

konakathy
06-29-2015, 06:54 PM
Wow, you didn't see the one I just posted? OK, I'll find somewhere on the internet to post them, then post a link to that as a workaround.

Btw, the 1944 Gaslight was a good movie!

Gaslight (1944) - IMDb (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0036855/?ref_=nv_sr_1)

Agree! Gaslight is a classic!

Btw, I decided not to pound down on my computer last night, but instead I pounded down a bottle of Pinot Grigio. :haha:

userque
06-29-2015, 06:55 PM
Gaslight 1944

Gaslight 1944 Film (http://wn.com/gaslight_1944_film_)

userque
06-29-2015, 07:00 PM
Agree! Gaslight is a classic!

Btw, I decided not to pound down on my computer last night, but instead I pounded down a bottle of Pinot Grigio. :haha:

:alcoholic: :biggthumpup:

k0nkuzh0n
06-29-2015, 07:54 PM
How do you limit risk yourself? If you're investing 100% of your money every trade, you should probably change names with nuutt!

To be clear, when I said 'risk' I was talking specifically about trading NUGT/DUST, not just any-old investing.

I'd call anyone who traded 100% of their money (all life's savings) on such a volatile pair, good system or not, crazy! And I would hope you would too. I thought that extreme of a case was safe to heard as a joke. I almost always move 100% of my TSP on buy/sells, but its not going to change by double digits in a day or so, regardless of the source of buy/sells.

userque
06-29-2015, 08:04 PM
To be clear, when I said 'risk' I was talking specifically about trading NUGT/DUST, not just any-old investing.

I'd call anyone who traded 100% of their money (all life's savings) on such a volatile pair, good system or not, crazy! And I would hope you would too. I thought that extreme of a case was safe to heard as a joke. I almost always move 100% of my TSP on buy/sells, but its not going to change by double digits in a day or so, regardless of the source of buy/sells.

I didn't speak on one trading their life's savings. I don't concern myself, save you, with other's allocations.

Guess you were wrong about the joke. Maybe you didn't include recent and past interactions in your calculations.

Consider this. A system that works, works faster with more volatility. A system that doesn't, fails faster with more volatility. This might explain your fear of volatility? I don't know. Just saying.

k0nkuzh0n
06-29-2015, 08:14 PM
I didn't speak on one trading their life's savings. I don't concern myself, save you, with other's allocations.

Guess you were wrong about the joke. Maybe you didn't include recent and past interactions in your calculations.

Consider this. A system that works, works faster with more volatility. A system that doesn't, fails faster with more volatility. This might explain your fear of volatility? I don't know. Just saying.

Hence why it was a joke. Lighten up, don't be so sensitive.

No fear. risk management. Volatility isn't the only risk factor, it just amplifies the consequences of all other risks.

You don't appear to even be following your system 100%. Just saying.

userque
06-29-2015, 08:26 PM
Hence why it was a joke. Lighten up, don't be so sensitive.

No fear. risk management. Volatility isn't the only risk factor, it just amplifies the consequences of all other risks.

You don't appear to even be following your system 100%. Just saying.

If I were so sensitive, I wouldn't be talking to you at all. I would tell Tom to tell you to stop posting to my thread...like what was done to me months ago by someone. Regarding that. It seems it is you that is trying to change my behavior/thinking. Me, I couldn't care less about what you do, think or believe. Just saying... Also, I enjoy this :censored:

I follow my signals, 100%. Why wouldn't I? 10k to 13.6k in 22 days. 11% so far in TSP. How you (or, more exactly, your buddy) doing?

Re-read my past recent posts regarding allocations.

Your turn.

k0nkuzh0n
06-29-2015, 08:51 PM
you take every single comment as a challenge or personal insult, when (almost?) none of them are. That would make you sensitive. I already sent you a screenshot of how I've done this year. Posting trades and following those trades are 2 different things. I don't really care what you do or don't do with your money, but self-created plots and spreadsheets with playmoney only goes so far. Just saying. :blink:

userque
06-29-2015, 08:58 PM
you take every single comment as a challenge or personal insult, when (almost?) none of them are. That would make you sensitive. I already sent you a screenshot of how I've done this year. Posting trades and following those trades are 2 different things. I don't really care what you do or don't do with your money, but self-created plots and spreadsheets with playmoney only goes so far. Just saying. :blink:

Again, if I were sensitive, I would ask Tom to tell you to stop posting. I post signals real-time...you sound silly. Just saying. Again, how are you/your-buddy doing so far this year with tsp?

First TNA/TZA, now NUGT/DUST. Don't hate, sign up!

Intrepid_Timer
06-29-2015, 09:01 PM
If I were so sensitive, I wouldn't be talking to you at all. I would tell Tom to tell you to stop posting to my thread...like what was done to me months ago by someone. Regarding that. It seems it is you that is trying to change my behavior/thinking. Me, I couldn't care less about what you do, think or believe. Just saying... Also, I enjoy this :censored:

I follow my signals, 100%. Why wouldn't I? 10k to 13.6k in 22 days. 11% so far in TSP. How you (or, more exactly, your buddy) doing?

Re-read my past recent posts regarding allocations.

Your turn.

Any time you're ready for "the challenge", let me know. I think u r pissed because "your buddy" lost to me last year...............oh BTW, you would have also. Just sayin'...............:rolleyes:

userque
06-29-2015, 09:04 PM
Any time you're ready for "the challenge", let me know. I think u r pissed because "your buddy" lost to me last year...............oh BTW, you would have also. Just sayin'...............:rolleyes:

LOL, You beat my buddy fair and square. I'm ready for the challenge.

Intrepid_Timer
06-29-2015, 09:10 PM
LOL, You beat my buddy fair and square. I'm ready for the challenge.

Cool. Would you like to start all square or do you want the lead you currently have, just like I gave your bud?

userque
06-29-2015, 09:13 PM
Cool. Would you like to start all square or do you want the lead you currently have, just like I gave your bud?

You call it.

k0nkuzh0n
06-29-2015, 09:18 PM
...you sound silly. Just saying. oooh the irony :laugh: Just Saying :1244:

Intrepid_Timer
06-29-2015, 09:18 PM
You call it.

You can have your lead. I'm currently up 6.33%. Person with the lowest return at the end of the year no longer posts on the public message board. Cool?

userque
06-29-2015, 09:19 PM
oooh the irony :laugh: Just Saying :1244:

k0n,

Shhhh...grown folks are talking.

userque
06-29-2015, 09:21 PM
You can have your lead. I'm currently up 6.33%. Person with the lowest return at the end of the year no longer posts on the public message board. Cool?

Cool.

userque
06-29-2015, 09:42 PM
Everyone, you gotta check this out. The more you know about working out, the funnier. But all should see it.

This is the workout plan I will use to practice for the challenge:

Best parts start about half-way through.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IzXBqmNAf8

jkenjohnson
06-30-2015, 06:21 AM
No, I can't with Robinhood


Good work. You are killing it.

userque
06-30-2015, 06:30 AM
Good work. You are killing it.

Thanks...I appreciate that!:smile:

jkenjohnson
06-30-2015, 06:32 AM
Everyone, you gotta check this out. The more you know about working out, the funnier. But all should see it.

This is the workout plan I will use to practice for the challenge:

Best parts start about half-way through.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IzXBqmNAf8

I got tired just watching him.

userque
06-30-2015, 06:35 AM
I got tired just watching him.

understandable...but the funniest parts are in the second half:D

userque
06-30-2015, 07:00 AM
You can have your lead. I'm currently up 6.33%. Person with the lowest return at the end of the year no longer posts on the public message board. Cool?

GAME ON video:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YaDzy8ftjJE

RealMoneyIssues
06-30-2015, 07:55 AM
Stopped out pre-market with 5% loss... stops are NOT my friend this month :-(

Which means NUGT will skyrocket today :sick:

userque
06-30-2015, 08:06 AM
Stopped out pre-market with 5% loss... stops are NOT my friend this month :-(

Which means NUGT will skyrocket today :sick:

evil stops

userque
06-30-2015, 08:07 AM
06-30-15 NO CHANGE AT OPEN

jpcavin
06-30-2015, 08:24 AM
8.30 at close would have been better :notrust:
I should stick to open or close. Goes to show I haven't learned anything from past experience.

userque
06-30-2015, 08:31 AM
I should stick to open or close. Goes to show I haven't learned anything from past experience.

IMO, you're being too hard on yourself. You're entry is better than mine. Commit to a successful system, and stay the course. Through rain and shine, as long as the system works, stay the course. All days won't be up days. The race is long. This is not a sprint, it's a marathon.:smile:

jpcavin
06-30-2015, 08:49 AM
IMO, you're being too hard on yourself. You're entry is better than mine. Commit to a successful system, and stay the course. Through rain and shine, as long as the system works, stay the course. All days won't be up days. The race is long. This is not a sprint, it's a marathon.:smile:

Oh, don't get me wrong. I'm sticking with it. It just seems there are better prices at open or close than the midday emotional rollercoaster. That is just my opinion based on minimal observation. I could be wrong.

jpcavin
06-30-2015, 08:55 AM
Stopped out pre-market with 5% loss... stops are NOT my friend this month :-(

Which means NUGT will skyrocket today :sick:

Buy it back!

RealMoneyIssues
06-30-2015, 08:55 AM
evil stops

We'll see :(

userque
06-30-2015, 08:59 AM
We'll see :(

fair point:blink:

jkenjohnson
06-30-2015, 09:10 AM
Userque,

Are you using stop losses on your trades? If so, % or $... per share?

jpcavin
06-30-2015, 09:13 AM
8.30 at close would have been better :notrust:

Dang, 8.08 would have been even better. :sick:

userque
06-30-2015, 09:27 AM
Userque,

Are you using stop losses on your trades? If so, % or $... per share?

No price stops. I'm in a cash account, so I trade about 25% of account per trade to deal with the 3 day settlement rule.

The trades I post here also do not use stops. The trades posted here are based on 100% of funds.

jkenjohnson
06-30-2015, 09:50 AM
No price stops. I'm in a cash account, so I trade about 25% of account per trade to deal with the 3 day settlement rule.

The trades I post here also do not use stops. The trades posted here are based on 100% of funds.

Thanks. Stops are hard to set with dust and nugt with the wild swings that occur sometimes.

userque
06-30-2015, 09:51 AM
Thanks. Stops are hard to set with dust and nugt with the wild swings that occur sometimes.

^5 :smile:

RealMoneyIssues
06-30-2015, 09:52 AM
Buy it back!

Maybe at $8 [emoji48]


Sent from my (Daughter forcing me to use an) iPhone using Tapatalk...

jpcavin
06-30-2015, 10:14 AM
Maybe at $8 [emoji48]
...

You may just get it.

konakathy
06-30-2015, 12:36 PM
Stopped out pre-market with 5% loss... stops are NOT my friend this month :-(

Which means NUGT will skyrocket today :sick:

its slowly gaining ground now. thanks rmi. :D

RealMoneyIssues
06-30-2015, 12:38 PM
its slowly gaining ground now. thanks rmi. :D

"Taking One for the Team, since Feb 2011" :censored: :rippedhand:

:smashfreakB:

:angryfire:

jkenjohnson
06-30-2015, 01:13 PM
Maybe at $8 [emoji48]


Sent from my (Daughter forcing me to use an) iPhone using Tapatalk...

I've been out of the office for two weeks with little computer access and bought in at $8.05 this morning.

RealMoneyIssues
06-30-2015, 01:48 PM
I've been out of the office for two weeks with little computer access and bought in at $8.05 this morning.

:rippedhand:

userque
06-30-2015, 02:37 PM
06-30-15 NO CHANGE AT CLOSE

RealMoneyIssues
06-30-2015, 03:06 PM
06-30-15 NO CHANGE AT CLOSE

We'll see what it says at open... have a good night.

userque
06-30-2015, 03:12 PM
We'll see what it says at open... have a good night.

Yes...very curious. Good night.

userque
06-30-2015, 05:17 PM
Preliminary results are no change for 7-1 open.

The analysis has run to the point of diminishing returns.

If there is time after I finish running the TSP analysis to a satisfactory solution; I will, as usual, resume the GDX analysis ad nauseum and, of course, post the official call.

konakathy
06-30-2015, 11:36 PM
Preliminary results are no change for 7-1 open.

The analysis has run to the point of diminishing returns.

If there is time after I finish running the TSP analysis to a satisfactory solution; I will, as usual, resume the GDX analysis ad nauseum and, of course, post the official call.

It's all about the love ! :D

userque
07-01-2015, 06:53 AM
07-01-15 NO CHANGE AT OPEN

jpcavin
07-01-2015, 08:49 AM
I've been out of the office for two weeks with little computer access and bought in at $8.05 this morning.

I knew it was going to continue falling the minute you bought in. Thanks a bunch, pal! :twak:

userque
07-01-2015, 09:44 AM
Regardless of today's price action, over the weekend I will try to determine whether:


The recent performance was/is due to black swan events (Greece, etc.) and unavoidable, or;
The recent performance could've been better with different system parameter settings, or;
The recent performance will happen every so often and goes with the territory.

RealMoneyIssues
07-01-2015, 10:25 AM
I knew it was going to continue falling the minute you bought in. Thanks a bunch, pal! :twak:

It's my fault, not Ken's... [emoji40] I'm toxic to systems...


Sent from my (Daughter forcing me to use an) iPhone using Tapatalk...

jpcavin
07-01-2015, 10:32 AM
Regardless of today's price action, over the weekend I will try to determine whether:


The recent performance was/is due to black swan events (Greece, etc.) and unavoidable, or;
The recent performance could've been better with different system parameter settings, or;
The recent performance will happen every so often and goes with the territory.



It's probably a combination of your third reason and RMI and JKENs bad luck.

jkenjohnson
07-01-2015, 11:53 AM
It's probably a combination of your third reason and RMI and JKENs bad luck.

Excuse me but I don't have luck. If I did I would be poor.

RealMoneyIssues
07-01-2015, 12:27 PM
Excuse me but I don't have luck. If I did I would be poor.

Now you know why I am poor...

jkenjohnson
07-01-2015, 01:02 PM
Now you know why I am poor...

I'm sure you are not poor. NUGT will turn around.

RealMoneyIssues
07-01-2015, 01:12 PM
I'm sure you are not poor. NUGT will turn around.

Compared to you, we are all poor... but that's another story

NUGT hasn't for a very long time... we'll see though

userque
07-01-2015, 01:59 PM
07-01-15 NO CHANGE AT CLOSE

RealMoneyIssues
07-01-2015, 02:11 PM
07-01-15 NO CHANGE AT CLOSE

Thinking a buy in at $7, thoughts?

userque
07-01-2015, 02:17 PM
Thinking a buy in at $7, thoughts?

Well, the system liked it at today's opening price, so, $7 should be great:smile:

We're in new 52-week low territory according to yahoo.

I haven't checked, but I suspect RSI might be in bullish territory.

userque
07-01-2015, 04:46 PM
It's probably a combination of your third reason...

It is currently running the analysis for tomorrow's open, but I was able to check some things before starting it. It is looking more and more like JP is correct and the recent price action and system performance is simply the result of the recent price action going against normal historical patterns (because we are near all time lows? because of Greece?)

The real questions are how long will this last, and how often does this happen? As I can't backtest, I will have to continue to keep trading to find out.

I'm personally confident that this will work out when it's all said and done.

The Grind Continues.

userque
07-01-2015, 09:00 PM
07-02-15 DUST AT OPEN

07-02-15 NUGT AT CLOSE (subject to change)

RealMoneyIssues
07-02-2015, 05:58 AM
07-02-15 DUST AT OPEN

07-02-15 NUGT AT CLOSE (subject to change)

Updated spreadsheet?

userque
07-02-2015, 06:32 AM
Updated spreadsheet?

After the OPEN. The opening price gets calculated into the new sheet. Prior to today's open, the system stayed with the previous trade from the last sheet--thus, no updates until today.

RealMoneyIssues
07-02-2015, 07:01 AM
After the OPEN. The opening price gets calculated into the new sheet. Prior to today's open, the system stayed with the previous trade from the last sheet--thus, no updates until today.

Ah, gotcha, ok...

jkenjohnson
07-02-2015, 07:28 AM
07-02-15 DUST AT OPEN

07-02-15 NUGT AT CLOSE (subject to change)

I assume this means buy Dust at open sell Nugt at close?

userque
07-02-2015, 08:15 AM
I assume this means buy Dust at open sell Nugt at close?

Same nomenclature as before, just two signals instead of one. One for the open, one for the close.

System will buy dust at open (thus, selling nugt at open).

System will then buy nugt at close, thus selling dust at close. This call can change after the open is analysed by the system.

Same nomenclature as before, except I put the extra signal there in case one wanted to just hang on to nugt since it will likely be a buy at close...rather than daytrade dust.

Hope that made sense.:blink:

userque
07-02-2015, 08:47 AM
SPREADSHEET UPDATE (Kathy, let me know if you can't view these):
34312

userque
07-02-2015, 08:48 AM
GRAPH UPDATE:
34313

Will see about removing weekends/holidays from next graph.

jkenjohnson
07-02-2015, 08:49 AM
SPREADSHEET UPDATE (Kathy, let me know if you can't view these):
34312

Gottcha thanks

konakathy
07-02-2015, 09:33 AM
Yes, I can view the spreadsheets now. Thanks.

userque
07-02-2015, 02:33 PM
07-02-15 DUST AT OPEN

07-02-15 NUGT AT CLOSE (subject to change)

07-02-15 NUGT AT CLOSE

userque
07-02-2015, 08:23 PM
SPREADSHEET UPDATE:
34320

DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

userque
07-02-2015, 08:25 PM
GRAPH UPDATE:
34322

userque
07-02-2015, 09:43 PM
A.I. SYSTEM PROGRESS REPORT

Tough week.

My first thought was that unexpected news was giving my system the flux. But, imo, it should be able to recover from that sort of thing in a day to two. So, painfully rejecting that idea, I searched for a shortcoming within the system itself.

The only thing I 'found,' is what I already knew. It has plenty of recent price action data to crunch; not so much going back a few or several days. If you recall, I recently implemented changes to give it this information, but it never chose to use the data and the implementation required a lot of computer resources. So I scrapped it, after all, the system was trading well.

(I could give my system any sort of data: moon phases, lotto numbers. It will try to find obvious and hidden correlations and use the data to generate signals. If it finds no correlations, it ignores the data. But I can't just throw the kitchen sink at it as each piece of information adds to its computational burden. But new data can't hurt its trading ability as long as it doesn't excessively bog down the computer.)

Anyway, I found a way to add older price history without adding great computational burden. I tried it out and the system liked the data. It used the data.

So now, it is generating a GDX signal for Monday. I will then use the previous model to also generate a signal for Monday for later comparison. Time permitting, I will go 'backwards in time' (proper backtesting) a few days to see how the new model would have performed where the previous model failed.

DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

userque
07-06-2015, 07:55 AM
07-06-15 DUST AT OPEN
07-06-15 NO CHANGE AT CLOSE



DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

userque
07-06-2015, 09:02 AM
Updated sheet/graph to be posted later today.

userque
07-06-2015, 01:48 PM
SPREADSHEET UPDATED:
34368






DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

userque
07-06-2015, 01:49 PM
GRAPH UPDATED:
34369

userque
07-06-2015, 02:22 PM
A.I. SYSTEM PROGRESS REPORT

Over the long weekend, I did a lot of testing, etc. Same engine; redesigned intake system--so to speak.

I found that I was able to improve performance by limiting input variables. I tested each input variable group by itself, one by one, to note their correlation to the desired output. The 'best' variables were included in the final model. This reduction in variables also led to drastically improved speed. It no longer takes hours to obtain a reasonable trading solution. It seems my system was suffering from its own version of neural network 'curve fitting.'

This endeavor was very labor and time intensive. I did the testing with the I Fund Model, but the results should apply to all of my models.

I've concluded that while it seems my system would have done 'less bad' last week with the above modifications; it appears that the recent markets are behaving in a way unlike they have in the past (and by 'past,' I mean the past that I have data for; through 2006 for NUGT/DUST). These 'new' patterns are always recorded and the system will learn from them...going forward; it just has to be a able to weather the current storm for as long as it lasts. We'll see.

RealMoneyIssues
07-06-2015, 02:30 PM
Here, this will fix it...

I, RMI, do solemnly swear to no longer follow this system.

There, all fixed.
Have a great week!!


Sent from my (Daughter forcing me to use an) iPhone using Tapatalk...

userque
07-06-2015, 02:34 PM
Here, this will fix it...

I, RMI, do solemnly swear to no longer follow this system.

There, all fixed.
Have a great week!!


Sent from my (Daughter forcing me to use an) iPhone using Tapatalk...

Thanks...I'll take all the help I can get!

jpcavin
07-06-2015, 03:01 PM
I'm still in NUGT. As they say in Street Fighter... FIGHT! :D

userque
07-06-2015, 03:04 PM
I'm still in NUGT. As they say in Street Fighter... FIGHT! :D

^5:smile:

userque
07-07-2015, 07:55 AM
07-07-15 NO CHANGE AT OPEN

Returning to only trading the CLOSE for the next several(?) days while I continue working to improve the 'day trading' system.





________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

k0nkuzh0n
07-07-2015, 11:28 AM
Here, this will fix it...

I, RMI, do solemnly swear to no longer follow this system.

There, all fixed.
Have a great week!!


Sent from my (Daughter forcing me to use an) iPhone using Tapatalk...

the market was listening :sick:

RealMoneyIssues
07-07-2015, 11:52 AM
the market was listening :sick:

You're welcome [emoji48]


Sent from my (Daughter forcing me to use an) iPhone using Tapatalk...

userque
07-07-2015, 11:53 AM
You're welcome [emoji48]


Sent from my (Daughter forcing me to use an) iPhone using Tapatalk...

:notworthy:

userque
07-07-2015, 05:07 PM
Neglected to post prior to the close, but there were/are no changes anyway:

07-07-15 NO CHANGE AT CLOSE
07-08-15 NO CHANGE AT OPEN

I think I'll run this model (non-day-trade) for a month or so in order to compare it to the day-trading model.

The improvements that resulted from re-thinking everything regarding the daytrading model were also applied to this (swing trading) model and to the TSP models (unfortunately, I applied them after I had already bought the I-Fund prematurely).

I normally don't reveal longer range forecasts, but the model is calling for a small bounce tomorrow for GDX, then a resumption of the downtrend after tomorrow. However, the model is updated after each OPEN and after each CLOSE, so, we'll see.







________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

userque
07-07-2015, 07:15 PM
The Most Overlooked Trading Strategy: Sticking to the Strategy

The Most Overlooked Trading Strategy: Sticking to the Strategy » Fx Empire Network (http://www.fxempire.com/education/advanced/the-most-overlooked-trading-strategy-sticking-to-the-strategy/)


...You see, some strategies work some of the time, other strategies work most of the time…but no strategy out there works the whole time. The ability to sit through any strategy’s drawdown period will make or break any newcomer to the market in their journey to becoming consistently profitable.

RealMoneyIssues
07-07-2015, 07:47 PM
The Most Overlooked Trading Strategy: Sticking to the Strategy

The Most Overlooked Trading Strategy: Sticking to the Strategy » Fx Empire Network (http://www.fxempire.com/education/advanced/the-most-overlooked-trading-strategy-sticking-to-the-strategy/)

True, but I obviously picked a bad time to follow the signals... now, the system should be fine. My bad juju is gone and it will now succeed...

userque
07-07-2015, 07:56 PM
True, but I obviously picked a bad time to follow the signals... now, the system should be fine. My bad juju is gone and it will now succeed...

I don't believe you have bad juju; nor do I believe juju, whatever it purportedly is--good or evil, affects the system. I don't know your trading history, but perhaps, maybe, you are creating your own juju results? Just a thought my friend...but I thank you none-the-less. :smile:

jkenjohnson
07-08-2015, 06:27 AM
I had to jump out of Dust yesterday with a 14% gain in one day. Many thanks userque. I made $11,200 in one day. Unbelievable.

userque
07-08-2015, 07:13 AM
I had to jump out of Dust yesterday with a 14% gain in one day. Many thanks userque. I made $11,200 in one day. Unbelievable.

Glad it worked out for you!

RealMoneyIssues
07-08-2015, 07:19 AM
I had to jump out of Dust yesterday with a 14% gain in one day. Many thanks userque. I made $11,200 in one day. Unbelievable.

:angryfire:

Figures

:censored:

userque
07-08-2015, 08:10 AM
A buddy of mine ran the numbers and concluded that a 6% stop-loss would be optimum for this system with the current data. I'll eventually have a Solver setup that will calculate/update the optimal stop-loss values on a weekly basis...but first things first. Right now, I'm still going commando.








________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

jkenjohnson
07-08-2015, 12:32 PM
:angryfire:

Figures

:censored:

I just got lucky. Without userque I would not have even bought Dust.

userque
07-08-2015, 02:46 PM
07-08-15 NUGT AT CLOSE









________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

userque
07-08-2015, 03:06 PM
Earlier, while staring at one of my spreadsheets running solver; I had another epiphany. Normally, they lead to improvements to the system and higher version numbers. This one lead to version 8. This upgrade was only for the day trading model. It is the same engine, but a new exhaust system, if you will. I'm excited about it, but we'll see how it does.

As such, I'm back to posting day trading signals rather than only CLOSEing signals. The most recent signal was based upon this new system.









________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

userque
07-08-2015, 10:22 PM
SPREADSHEET UPDATE:
34424








__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

userque
07-08-2015, 10:24 PM
GRAPH UPDATE:
34425

userque
07-09-2015, 07:53 AM
07-09-15 NO CHANGE AT OPEN









__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

userque
07-09-2015, 02:39 PM
07-09-15 NO CHANGE AT CLOSE









__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

jpcavin
07-09-2015, 03:11 PM
07-09-15 NO CHANGE AT CLOSE



That's good because I bought some more NUGT @ 6.89 Do or die!!

userque
07-09-2015, 03:31 PM
That's good because I bought some more NUGT @ 6.89 Do or die!!

Excellent! Hope it works out for us.

I plan on adding a couple of things that may be helpful. (1) An Error indicator. The machine generates a metric that essentially indicates what it thinks the error margin is for each forecasted '% Change' (described below). An indication of zero meaning it is as certain as it can be [at it's current parameter settings.]

(2) A '% Change' Forecast. I will post what the machine projects the percentage change FROM THE MOST RECENT PREVIOUS OPEN/CLOSE to the TARGET OPEN/CLOSE to be.

I will be collecting these statistics going forward and may also post them in chart form. They may reveal that there exists a certain Error Margin level above which, the system ought to either go to CASH, or trade based upon the forecast of the following OPEN/CLOSE.

Simplified, I'll be posting some more stuff.









__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

jpcavin
07-09-2015, 03:40 PM
Simplified, I'll be posting some more stuff.



http://www.runemasterstudios.com/graemlins/images/2thumbs.gif

FAAM
07-09-2015, 05:02 PM
USERQUE: Thanks much for what you are doing and sharing in your forum "NUGT/DUST". Educational for me. I've only been a TSP investor, never traded in the markets through a broker. I have been reading TSPtalk & its Forums & some other references for a few years now, have some cash I want to start trading... I saw reference on here some days ago about "Robinhood" for online trading, checked it out and very interested in signing up to use that.
I'm hoping you and/or JPC can reply here with a little more explanation or tips on trading there.
-- For example, with their 3-day hold after selling a position to cash-account, you can't just use those funds to buy anything else immediately; you indicated you just buy with about a quarter of your cash account... I'm assuming that leaves you another quarter of it to buy more in the next day or two, leaving residual 50% or so to buy with immediately after selling positions you previously purchased. Could you confirm the strategy? And do you think that would generally work if swing-trading with about half my trading pot alternately between ETF/Inverse-ETF or such, and using 25%-to-50% of remaining cash to trade for intermediate-&-longer term equity-buys? Any other thoughts/tips will be appreciated.
-- Thanks again, Kurt.


Excellent! Hope it works out for us.

I plan on adding a couple of things that may be helpful. (1) An Error indicator. The machine generates a metric that essentially indicates what it thinks the error margin is for each forecasted '% Change' (described below). An indication of zero meaning it is as certain as it can be [at it's current parameter settings.]

(2) A '% Change' Forecast. I will post what the machine projects the percentage change FROM THE MOST RECENT PREVIOUS OPEN/CLOSE to the TARGET OPEN/CLOSE to be.

I will be collecting these statistics going forward and may also post them in chart form. They may reveal that there exists a certain Error Margin level above which, the system ought to either go to CASH, or trade based upon the forecast of the following OPEN/CLOSE.

Simplified, I'll be posting some more stuff.
__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

userque
07-09-2015, 05:23 PM
USERQUE: Thanks much for what you are doing and sharing in your forum "NUGT/DUST". Educational for me. I've only been a TSP investor, never traded in the markets through a broker. I have been reading TSPtalk & its Forums & some other references for a few years now, have some cash I want to start trading... I saw reference on here some days ago about "Robinhood" for online trading, checked it out and very interested in signing up to use that.
I'm hoping you and/or JPC can reply here with a little more explanation or tips on trading there.
-- For example, with their 3-day hold after selling a position to cash-account, you can't just use those funds to buy anything else immediately; you indicated you just buy with about a quarter of your cash account... I'm assuming that leaves you another quarter of it to buy more in the next day or two, leaving residual 50% or so to buy with immediately after selling positions you previously purchased. Could you confirm the strategy? And do you think that would generally work if swing-trading with about half my trading pot alternately between ETF/Inverse-ETF or such, and using 25%-to-50% of remaining cash to trade for intermediate-&-longer term equity-buys? Any other thoughts/tips will be appreciated.
-- Thanks again, Kurt.

You're welcome Kurt (FAAM).

You are exactly right. The percentage I choose depends upon how frequently I trade. If I'm going to be holding for 3+ days, then I would use 50%.

Note though, I use '50%' and and '25%' roughly. Say on Sunday, I'll calculate what 25% is, then I'll calculate how many shares of NUGT and DUST that'll buy, then I round that down to the nearest 100th. (100 shares, 200 shares, 1200 shares, 13000 shares :) ) 'Round' lots fill faster. I may trade with those figures all week. It makes for faster/easier/stressless order entry as well, especially with a no-frills broker.

If the markets are really choppy, I may have to use a lower percentage.

But your plan sounds like a good starting point. Tweak it lower if you find that you are running out of buying power frequently.

Good Luck!









__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

FAAM
07-09-2015, 06:07 PM
Thanks for your reply! Good Luck to you too Sir!









__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.[/QUOTE]

userque
07-09-2015, 06:56 PM
07-10-15 NO CHANGE AT OPEN

[notes to self:
g 0.95%
e 0.0099
c 4]




__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

jpcavin
07-10-2015, 09:41 AM
That's good because I bought some more NUGT @ 6.89 Do or die!!

This song keeps playing in my head :sick:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jj4nJ1YEAp4

userque
07-10-2015, 02:48 PM
07-10-15 NO CHANGE AT CLOSE




__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

userque
07-13-2015, 08:06 AM
07-13-15 DUST AT OPEN

userque
07-13-2015, 08:24 PM
Just finished system repairs and preliminary testing. Looking gooder. Later I will port it over to the TSP systems.

My apologies.

The 'old' system and this new one both say I should have went NUGT at close today. I had an alarm snafu and missed giving signals and making trades in my real account and my tracking account. It happens. If I were truly some sort of premium service, I would have redundant systems in place; probably will do that anyway.

Without prior notification, I've been using what is known a heartbeat signal in the tech industry:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heartbeat_(computing)

I post "NO CHANGE" to let readers know the system is standing pat. Posting "NO CHANGE" is also a heartbeat signal. It lets readers know that: I'm alive. I'm not incarcerated. I'm not passed out. I'm not otherwise incapacitated. You can stop waiting/checking and carry on.

With no heartbeat signal, a reader is left to wonder whether the system is standing pat, or whether something broke and they simply didn't receive the signal, or if the signal is just late, but still coming?

If something is broke, a reader is therefore left to their own devices as to the "what to do?" question.

Of course, if I were an actual premium service, there would be more robustness as to signals etc. (A signal time 'window,' for example...as described below.)

All this to simply say, if you are following these signals for research purposes or whatever, please be advised that if you don't hear something from me by 15 mins. before closing bell or by opening bell, assume something is broke and fend for yourself.

Now, on to updating the system with today's price action and seeing if it still likes NUGT for the open as well; and to seeing how long I might stay in the F fund.

userque
07-14-2015, 06:11 AM
07-14-15 NO CHANGE AT OPEN

Updated system agreed with being in DUST overnight.




__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

userque
07-14-2015, 06:28 AM
SPREADSHEET UPDATE:
34485




__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

userque
07-14-2015, 06:30 AM
GRAPH UPDATE:
34486

userque
07-14-2015, 02:44 PM
07-14-15 NO CHANGE AT CLOSE



__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

userque
07-15-2015, 07:51 AM
07-15-15 NUGT AT OPEN




__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

userque
07-15-2015, 02:45 PM
07-15-15 DUST AT CLOSE



__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

userque
07-15-2015, 03:08 PM
SPREADSHEET UPDATE:
34503




__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

userque
07-15-2015, 03:09 PM
GRAPH UPDATE:
34504

userque
07-16-2015, 07:56 AM
07-16-15 NUGT AT OPEN




__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

userque
07-16-2015, 02:39 PM
07-16-15 NO CHANGE AT CLOSE




__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

userque
07-17-2015, 08:16 AM
07-17-15 DUST AT OPEN




__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

userque
07-17-2015, 02:24 PM
07-17-15 NO CHANGE AT CLOSE




__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

userque
07-17-2015, 10:33 PM
07-20-15 OPEN:
DAY TRADE TZA

This means that the system will buy TZA at the OPEN on 7-20. (If the system held TNA prior, it would also sell that position at the OPEN.) "DAY TRADE" means that this signal is from the daytrading model. The daytrading model trades most frequently.

* When any signal is posted, you can assume that all other unposted etf's are in a NO CHANGE status for the OPEN and the CLOSE for that day.

userque
07-17-2015, 10:47 PM
A.I. SYSTEM PROGRESS REPORT

Old engine was struggling. Built new one. The new engine is my custom Pattern Recognition Machine (PRM). Once again, it can only be backtested on a limited bases. PRM is much faster than the old engine. Therefore, I can do an experiment:

The Mother of All TSPTalk experiments, imo:smile:

I will generate signals from the:

Day Trading NUGT/DUST model
Swing Trading NUGT/DUST model
Day Trading TNA/TZA model
Swing Trading TNA/TZA model

I will track the results as I've done previously. My goal is to determine which model is most profitable. I will still be trading NUGT/DUST in my personal account, but not TNA/TZA.

The swing trading models are designed to trade less frequently than the day trading models, but in volatile markets, they can still reverse course on a dime.

For comparison purposes, I will start a new log for the day trading NUGT/DUST model, but I will also maintain the old one.

Signals for both the OPEN and CLOSE will be given at the same time.




__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

userque
07-17-2015, 10:54 PM
SPREADSHEET UPDATE:
34534




__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

userque
07-17-2015, 10:56 PM
GRAPH UPDATE:
34535

userque
07-19-2015, 02:56 AM
07-20-15
_________________________________


DAY TRADE(S) AT OPEN
TZA (Enter TZA at open and exit TNA at open)
DUST (Enter DUST at open and exit NUGT at open)
----------------------------
SWING TRADE(S) AT OPEN
TZA "
DUST "
=================================


DAY TRADE(S) AT CLOSE
NC (No Change)
----------------------------
SWING TRADE(S) AT CLOSE
NC "



I am testing four models: A model that day trades NUGT/DUST; A model that swing trades NUGT/DUST; A model that day trades TNA/TZA; and a model that swing trades TNA/TZA.

They will trade at either the OPEN or the CLOSE.

Just as before, entering a position means exiting the previous position.

I will trade in my personal account whichever model is currently doing best. Right now, I am still following the NUGT/DUST day trading model.

As stated prior, I've built a new trading engine. This engine must be calibrated daily until is "stabilizes." (Even after that, I'll still calibrate it.) Stabilization can take up to a couple of weeks; even so, I'm good with trading it right now.

[For the curious, "stabilization" is what I call short term back-testing/forward-testing in order to optimize engine parameters.]

This experiment hopes to answer some questions I've had for a long time: Which is "better," NUGT/DUST or TNA/TZA? Which is "better," Swing trading or Day trading?





__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

konakathy
07-19-2015, 03:05 PM
I like your plan to add TNA/TZA to your program. I made some good trades with them last year. NUGT/DUST have not been my friends so far. I'm with RMI and decided to stop giving my money to Schwab, besides its hard for me to day trade because of my time zone and work schedule. I'll be more of an active trader next year and stick to learning this year. Again, thanks for your posts.

userque
07-20-2015, 04:56 AM
CORRECTED:

07-20-15


DAY TRADE(S) AT OPEN
TNA
DUST


SWING TRADE(S) AT OPEN
NONE


DAY TRADE(S) AT CLOSE
NONE


SWING TRADE(S) AT CLOSE
DUST
TZA




__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

RealMoneyIssues
07-20-2015, 02:12 PM
CORRECTED:

07-20-15

SWING TRADE(S) AT CLOSE
DUST
TZA

__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

Congrats on a most excellent swing trade on DUST... figures :censored: