Soldat's Account Talk

[Soldat]

First off, I am a N00B to TSP. Started 01Dec04 and as of this post I have only $5298 in TSP. Of this, I have invested $4980.

Stayed G fund until May, then more or less 40% S \40% I \20% C Until the S fund fell. Then, went over to 80% S and 20%C to squeeze every last nickel out of the I.

100% S on 27 Oct. Nov allocation adjusted account to 90% S \ 10% G. 88% S \ 12% F effective 03Nov05.

If the market is strong today, 03Nov, I sell and move to 100%F. I feel that the F bonds are due a .22 share increase before Dec 27. But also, I feel that the S will reach 16.12 - 16.22 before 26 Dec.

I think that the S will drop again, at least once, before holding through mid-december. I think my best move is to sell S within the next couple days, ride F up .15/share then buy in S again when it is low at the end of this month ~ 26Nov. Regardless of what happens, 100%G effective around 22-24Dec, I feel the drop coming early this year.

Let me know what you think.

[Soldat]

Market looks strong, 100% F - I have a feeling and some good info that bonds are on the rebound. We will see. Looks like the market will hold fast today.

Let me know how you guys are holding up.

[Soldat]

Market gave back a few points but still finished up. Looks like a good time to buy bonds too. Going to try to buy into either S or I, at 15.35 or 16.25 respectively. Hopefully the info I recieved on bonds is solid and I can ride them up at least .10/share while S and I level out.
100%F effective COB 03Nov

[Soldat]

Wanted to buy in the I if it fell, but it doesnt look like it will finish down. Plus, bonds look bull today, still 100% F and rolling with it!

[Soldat]

Looking for the market to be down on Wed so I can buy in. Bonds are rolling but that will end. Im thinking we will see overall 2-5% returns in months november and december. I am seriously contemplating buy and hold 50 50 S I until Dec 22.

[Soldat]

Probably going 100% I effective COB today, twenty minutes and we will seee what happens. I think the euro is due a rally. Look at the charts.

[vectorman]

Soldat wrote:
Probably going 100% I effective COB today, twenty minutes and we will seee what happens. I think the euro is due a rally. Look at the charts.
I sure hope so. The Euro looks like it's bouncing on the bottom, but tomorrow is V-Day and I wonder how patriotic investers will be tomorrow. The one sad thing is, TSP is close tomorrow, so any change will be for friday and monday.

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/w?s=EURUSD=X

[Soldat]

I went 100% I at 1130, so what your telling me is I fund needs to fall today and rally starting tomorrow... I'm down!

[Soldat]

Where are you at Vectorman? I?

[Soldat]

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/w?s=EFA



http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/w?s=%5EDWCP

Looking for the I to be up and the S to be down, then make the jump between funds. It might not happen, but if it does, I wont miss it.

[Soldat]

was I the only one hearing the voices say oversold?

[Spaf]

Soldat wrote:
was I the only one hearing the voices say oversold?
:hhuh? Ya got me confused! Yesterday the RSI for the S&P500closed at 60.9

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/relative_strength_index.htm

[Soldat]

Yes, but I am sitting in 100% I fund

[Soldat]

Still 100% I

Finished at 4.14% for the month of November. Only mistake was thinking the i-train would ride alongside the s-train. I think it will ride longer and faster this month.

Rally until 27 Dec, little breathing room!

[Soldat]

15%F
85%I
Today

I am certain that this surge is a continuation of our santa run and not an anomaly. Look for Friday and monday to be up and a VERY SLIGHT correction possible next week. In my opinion, this past correction was VERY small compared to the poison the techs have been spitting. Its one way up to Dec 24-29, again I say the drop will be early this year; people learn from past mistakes. Also, on Nov 03 I had originally said that the S would reach 16.12-16.22 by december end. I think we might see 16.60-16.80 if the rate hikes dont blunt the santa run. Regardless, I think that the I is a more safe hold at this point. From what I see, the F is also BFG (bound for glory). Though I will look to reinvest that 15% on the next correction.

Heilsa

[Soldat]

Looks like today might be another GREAT day for the I fund, the Nikkei finished up 1.92%!!! FTSE is up .4% so far, has the ball and running with it. I am looking for another 1% or so today and probably heading for the hills, correction on monday and tuesday? Weve come up this hill very fast, must be losing steam? But then again, we might be up monday too!

[Soldat]

I think that the C, S, and I, will finish strong today. Look for a big push coming in the afternoon, I could be wrong but I'm probably not, because, this is, The Santa Run...

[Soldat]

ishares EFA bounces down from 59.48, testing the alltime high of 58.65

Interesting

[Soldat]

Not moving today. FTSE and european markets rally last fifteen minutes, FTSE finishes .77% Nikkei finishes 1.92%. Will be reinvesting tuesday after the correction (more like a manipulation).

Good luck to all! And have a great weekend, heres a beer on me!

[Soldat]

Well, there was a big push and they did finish strong, I betcha a twenty spot that mondays going to be up and at it again, any takers? Just look at that volume all today, feeding frenzy and the water was full of bait!!

[Soldat]

Probably taking everything off the table. Something doesnt feel right. Going 100% F, just watching for another half hour, but almost 99% sure thats my play. International markets didnt do that bad, I fund might even finish up. Depends on the fair valuation by the man.

[Soldat]

100% F, no faith in tuesday and wednesday

The market giveth, and the market taketh away...

Use the force...

[Soldat]

Even though, at this point we will eventually rebound from any such loss or breathing of the market, I am taking my 62 cent/share profit off the table. We need some downhill action in order to rally this month out. Looking to re-invest this thursday possible, but I might play it safe between G and F funds until the 13 or 14th. I see dark clouds on the horizon and bulls are easily frightened. I think the next couple days will breathe.

Tread lightly.

[Birchtree]

Ferdinand knows that with dark clouds comes rain and soon there will be plenty of new green grass to eat. His favorite color is green. His favorite food is money.

Dennis-perma bull #2

[Soldat]

HAHAHAHA, I cuncur. There will be a slight pause that will last 2-3 days, and happens before Dec 15th. Then it will get even tighter. Green grass. It looks like around 4-8% gains this month, for C, S, and I.

[Soldat]

Not to toot my own horn but I saw this coming.

[Soldat]

Smart money has little faith, we've come pretty far and we are low on steam. We need a little momentum but dont worry, the second half of this year will mimic "The little train that could"

[Soldat]

Nikkei finished up .4 but most of europe is bombing, even more so as it nears market closure. I think that TSP will also adjust fair valuation and the I fund will finish even lower. Tomorrow might be a down day also, I might throw in about 50% into stocks and throw in the other 50% if tomorrow is down too. 100% F yesterday and today, bonds treated me well. I'll let you guys know what I'm doing before the ift deadline, if you care. Looks like a good buy day and we might see another rally and then another dip around 13/14th

[Soldat]

100% I effective today, tomorrow might breath some more, but I think we have a peak coming soon and I'd rather catch a small downdraft than miss the uptrend. When bull, go long right?

[Soldat]

Until the footsie and Nikkei start walking in-step with eachother I wont be timing the I fund. purely position trading. Next week markets will tank. I dont think monday will be up. I will probably move 50%G 50%F today and re-invest on wednesday the 14th. My sources have not steered me wrong yet, and I am ahead of the buy and hold average so I will trust them. Plus, it never hurts to take the profit off of the table. I need to be safe until the 14th. 10th-14th has done well less than half of the months in this year. Some instances those dates were associated with .5-3% percent losses, as we had seen in October. On the other end, November had been good to those dates.

[Soldat]

NOT moving, staying 100% I.

[Soldat]

US markets appear to be headed for slight gains today, though they will give back points in the last hour. Such is my analysis.

[Soldat]

Off topic, the iShares MSCI EAFE resistance point is 59.56 if we can get above that, she might break away with the ball and run with it. Looks good to have American investors in the European funds.

[Soldat]

MSCI EAFE finishes up .413?! K, lets do this again monday =)

[cowboy]

LOL! Half the time that has been wrong!! It all depends on if the regulators want to adjust this Friday or decide to go along with the MSCI figures. Don't count on MSCI it is only right a partial amount of the time. If the dollar is down then the price may be higher than the MSCI value. I wouldn't count on the I fund beign up Monday on the fact that it appears MSCI only paid a portion of what you think is coming.

[Soldat]

:^ They went with the MSCI figures, sometimes they adjust which makes the I fund tricky to time, seems to be a better position trade or buy&hold. Anyways, monday might be flat but the indications I am getting are that we will break through the resistance and then correct sometime later in the week.

[Soldat]

Nikkei is steaming away, up over 2% already. With some backing from Europe and the US markets loss of steam, we could see the I fund shoot the moon.

100%I No guts no glory.

[Birchtree]

Yes, up 318.41 to 15,722.46 and probably going higher before the session closes. Good luck on this run - I have mine in AEPGX. The Dow futures are also positive.

[Soldat]

Glad I didnt pull out on friday, I am getting a feel for this market. That and some good information:^. Anyways, I still think that the European markets are out of step with the nikkei so I will be holding 100% I until late December. I plan on seeing 2-6% more gains before the end of the year.

[Soldat]

All balls move on this one. Europe appears to be steaming and she could shoot the moon today. Nikkei up .27 if I remember correctly. Have some training today and wont be able to make any moves unless I do it before 8am. So, all balls 100% F. Looking at Wednesday and/or Thursday to be down and back in stox before Friday. A little luck and I'll be way ahead of the buy and hold.

[Soldat]

Nikkei is tanking, down .64 so far. I will re-invest in the I fund today if Europe takes a downday.

[Soldat]

Nikkei finishes -1.99%. Dodged that bullet, rebuying 100% I fund today. Europe may or may not follow, seems to be due a downday also. We can only run so far without puking meh?

[Show-me]

Watch the ^N300 on Yahooinstead of the ^N255. The 300 is the one the I fund tracks. The 300 was down 1.64% not much better but it was better.

[Soldat]

Thanks brother, I had just been using http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u for most of my tracking purposes.

[Show-me]

Try this. It's all the majors in the TSP .

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?s=%5eGSPC%2c+%5eDWCPF%2c+EFA%2c+AGG%2c+%5eFTSE% 2c+%5eGDAXI%2c+%5eFCHI%2c+%5eN300%2c+%5eAORD%2c+%5 eNZ50&d=v1

[Soldat]

What is up with the dollar, its tanking againt the yen, or is it just going to tank altogether? Either way, was surprised to see such an exchange after the eafe should have been down. Anyways, news said it was the biggest powerplay against the dollar in four years.

[Soldat]

Dollar's crumbling under its own weight, which is decreasing japanese export profits.

[JOVARN]

Soldat wrote:
Dollar's crumbling under its own weight, which is decreasing japanese export profits.
style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f8"http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051215/japan_markets.html?.v=3

style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f8f8f8"

[Soldat]

Yes, Jov, that is a good article =). I had posted this in the I fund down thread, I figure it should go here as well, since I am 100% I.
I believe that the Nikkei is on the uptrend and will continue up. Many Japanese traders are selling their dollars and buying back yen which will eventually stabalize the imbalance of a weakened dollar. The Nikkei will continue upward, and I think the rest of the year will show us that. Currently 100% I, going to pull out before 2006 breaks and buy back in after the great selloff of 06'. Probably looking at 20%G 20%F 30% C and 30% I. Good luck to all and great holy days. May Odhinn bless you all.

Rob

[oldschool]

Hmm. Here's a link to today's Financial Times article suggesting Bank of England likely to lower rates in Feb. or March. If this starts looking more probable, dollar will stay stronger vs. pound, and some of the currency adjustments in the I fund might not turn out so favorable.... It's never simple is it....


http://news.ft.com/cms/s/e77d9628-7215-11da-9ff7-0000779e2340.html

[Soldat]

Thats if and only if the dollar stays strong. Look at how the dollar slid against the yen. The short term for the dollar looks bleak if the trend continues.

[oldschool]

Agree yen does look strong vs. dollar - and probably for quite a while. Japan interest rates might actually go up at some point. Just seemed interesting if Bank of England though seeming to start to think about the opposite direction...

[Soldat]

Though Jp and Europe finished quite flat, we may have some good gains driven off of the USD->Yen.

[Soldat]

I fund should gain 2 cents today woot. Dollar loses ground vs. yen and euro. Next week looks SOLID, we will prob see at the very least 1.3% gains next week (I-funders). I will be out of the market *before* (black) friday.

[Soldat]

I accomplished my goal here. Bought in the I at 16.52 on Nov11. Selling today, should be around 17.75-17.80 if the dollar doesnt gain/lose too much. I don't WANT to get out of the I fund because I feel that the dollar is unstable and on a downward trend. But, I KNOW that there will be a selloff. I will look for a point of entry after the I fund loses around 2-2.5%. I have a knack for spotting the bottoms. Anyhow, good luck to all and I look forward to trading with you in 2006.

[Soldat]

Well, no selloff. I will be moving to a different strategy between the I, G, and F funds. I will plan on selling off little bits on up days and reinvesting on downdays. Playing the middle game, I plan on holding around 40-50% I and juggling the rest. Basically, limiting my exposure near the tops and increasing my exposure near the bottom. I believe that by actively "playing" the oscillations of the market, not only do I have considerable less risk but, I may be able to grind out a few extra % by EOY. Will be following this strategy for a ffew months at least and then comparing to the buy/hold for I fund. Also, its actually fun to juggle the funds.

[Soldat]

Trashed my prior plan in Feb and have been holding 100% I for quite a while. Looking for twenty dollar shares this month.

Well, I elected to change my monthly contribution to F fund seeing as though it was around 10.61 low istead of buying the I at an alltime high...

So my contribution forced me into 4.5% F and 95.5% I

I'll be dropping the F into I on the first hint of international weakness. Not looking for a pullback, just a shallow respiration.

[Soldat]

Using the figures from TSP participant statement, and figuring into account my 2006 contributions and the share price as of Apr 21, my YTD return is 13.478%

Holding 100% I fund.

I hit the 20 dollar shares this month, as forecast. I will be canceling my contributions as of EOM because I will be deploying. I will use the tax free money to buy some ETFs such as EWC, EWZ, and a few others. I will then resume contributions of 50% pay when I return in order to defer that money. I see monday as another up-day for the I fund. The dollar is drying up.

[Soldat]

YTD returns

I fund +13.93%
S fund +10.76%
C fund +5.61%
F fund -0.85%
G fund +1.43%

F Fund will rebound in the next week or two off of CPI report showing inflation in March. I believe that $10.57 is the low, and that F fund will see 11 more cents in the next 2 weeks, regardless of the Fed's rate hike (which is more or less priced in). Next month's CPI will also show rising inflation due to oils. F fund will continue to gain, recovering from it's current deficit and gaining up to +2%.

The dollar is falling.

Trade safely.

[GGal]

Hi Soldat,

Do you know why your figures have you at 13+% YTD, while Rokids schedule has you at 5.91%?

Is there a flaw in the tracking schedules they are using that we need to know about?

By the way, when I look at my participant's statements, I feel really good too! My earnings have been great. And that is what counts. What the statement says.

Thanks
Peaches

[Soldat]

I dont know anything about Roki's figures or when he cut off the date for the figures. I guess the figures are only correct if I had my contibution allocations matching my current allocations? I dont know how they would figure that in.

[Soldat]

Looking to buy into I fund. Dollar might regain some ground and nikkei should fall some from fridays declining dollar which will lower JP export profits. European markets are closed for mayday so this could be a downday. I am watching nikkei RSI fall and look like shes about to pop.

Europe has had a couple down days and may still be falling, hard to tell. I want some action though.

[Soldat]

EU trade sanctions against US. May hurt dollar.