Master's Account Talk

[Master]

Pretty much I had not been actively doing much with my TSP account, but only with my IRAs. In March '05, I sat with a financial planner and discussed my goals. Pretty much I continue to have close to 100% in stocks but I am much more diversified than before.

After following small and mid caps indices for past 6 months, I thought that the W4500 was overly down than it ought to be and jump into it with 100% IFT in Oct.

[tsptalk]

Good luck Master!

[Soldat]

Nice moves, the kung fu is strong (in this one.)

[Master]

On Thursday, I missed the deadline for my TSP account. I intended to buy I fund. Thus, I then went to another account where I am able to do stuff until 3pm (EST).I did a transferin one of my Fidelity 403(b) accounts. I bought a 54K position from money market to FOSFX (Fidelity Overseas), which kind of tracks the same exposure as the I fund. Today, I was pretty happy camperas it went up 1.28%. :D:^

The reason why I described this transaction is because it will affect my TSP selections as it is veryclose to the I fund. An advantage that we have with TSP is about no direct costs for short-term transactions, whereas the FOSFX has a 30 day short-term trading transaction fee.

[Birchtree]

As a family unit, my wife has a Florida Retirement System account where we own AEPGX - American Europacific fund - this allows family diversification, and enables me to consolidate my position in the C fund in TSP. That way I miss the excitement of dealing with the I fund - ain't it fun. Take care.

Dennis

[Soldat]

I dont think you will have to sell out the International stock within 30 days. We should be seeing 5-10% before the new year. So hold on to it and forget the short term fee.

[Master]

Using the TSP method (only IFTs of principal):

10/12 - IFT from 100% G to S

11/3 - IFT from 100% S to G

11/15 - IFT from 100% G to I

11/28 - IFT from 100% I to S

November to date (11/27): 4.79%

October to date (11/27): 8.82%

YTD - 11.84% (assumes the 2.87% for 1/05-9/05)

Jan - Sep'05 (actual): 3.05% - TSP excel 2.87%

The difference is due to the effect of cost dollar averaging of contributions.

[mlk_man]

WOW, 8.82% in two months. You really are the master!! However, if all your postings are like your latest, I don't put too much clout in it. In your account you posted that you were moving to S fund today. On your posting in this thread, you said you moved to the S fund yesterday. One or two days here or there makes a big difference.

Good luck,

M_M

[vectorman]

If you want to be a true master then consistently post your IFT moves before 12est and lets seehow it plays out.:^

[Master]

Vectorman,

I started posting since Wed Nov 2nd, 2005 including beforeNOON deadline on:

11/3 - IFT from 100% S to G (ACCURATE)

11/15 - IFT from 100% G to I (ACCURATE)

11/29 - IFT from 100% I to S (CORRECTION)

The October to date, November to date and YTD are to 11/28 not 11/27. I did them late last night, and made the mistake of substracting one day. I used the 11/28 share prices.

See: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/2373.html

Regards,

Master

[Master]

All November moves were posted before noon deadline at my account:

11/3 - IFT from 100% S to G

11/15 - IFT from 100% G to I

11/29 - IFT from 100% I to S

My November '05 = +4.80%

G = 0.36%, F = 0.38%, C = 3.75%, S = 4.72%, I = 2.44%, 20% = 2.33%

Themarketdid all the hard work, I only bested by 0.08%.

[mlk_man]

You are now on the weekly tracker. :^

[Master]

Earlier today, I posted before the noon deadline in my account an IFT from 100% I to 100% G. Although I think that the I-fund is a great fund with an outstanding future, the market broke theresistance level for the first time in several weeks. I think that the I fundwill correct back to about ~17.25in a few days before testing the resistance again.

Thus far:

Since I beingposting in this webforum - Nov. to date: +7.61%

Since I started actively swing-trading my TSP funds reading this webforum: (Oct. to date): 11.75%

My TSP 2005 YTD: +14.85%

[mlk_man]

Nice job m. Guess that's why you have all that mana in a little over a month eh?

Mind if I call you "m"? I can't bring myself to call anyone in this world "master". :^

M_M

[Show-me]

Haha! It does give the impression one thinks they are superior and appear condescending.

[Master]

Wouldn't be that be for "doctor" or "professor"? M is ok, M_M.

[The_Technician]

Gee, I'm still wondering why I have all those mana's....I rather just not have them....we're all on equal footing here.....

:dude:

[Master]

Well, I pulled out too soonmy entireTSP component(19% of my IRAs) from the market.Although I bet shortall of my TSP for today (I sold yesterday as posted), and consequently lost in the nice rally today, I fortunatelyhave over 75% in stock funds with small, midcap, international, and latin america funds.

Despite the noon deadline, TSP allows you to swing in and out of the market with no direct fees, so in a sense, for those of us with IRAs in more restrictive environments, TSP is a valve that allow us to dampen our volatility and risk.

[Master]

My TSP is still in S - 100%. My overall IRA has done well (FOSFX, FMCSX, FLATX, FNMIX, VFINX, sold my FSESX). My TSP from time I have been posting here (Nov - to date) is up +7.61% (but no gain since 12/12).

[Master]

I discussed earlier that I had invested on FOSFX back onNov. 10. As of yesterday, that fidelity fund was up +10.84%.Having this fund, made me choose S over I when I came back into stocks on Dec. 15. Unfortunately, I lost 10 cents/share (rather than earning 31 cents/share) when I sold yesterday.Ialsosoldyesterday FMCSX andVFINX.However, I keptFOSFX,FLATX, and FNMIX. Notice that those three are international stocks which I believe will do well in 2006.

Overall, this year was pretty good for my YTD TSP, and myIRAs includinga great perfomance of an unfortunately toosmall investment back in March10 '05 of FSESX, whichmade 41.12% over the rest of the year and sold about 10 days ago. I do not expect the earnings in the energy sectorfor 2006 to reach to gainsof 2005, but it will be a solid bet.

[Master]

This past week was incredibly painful for some of us at the sidelines. (Cheers to you if you were inside). There are some of those weeks every year, but this one was particularly bad for us as it was considerable potential gain.

Last night (today), the market was closed in Japan for holiday. The EFA is looking down without the contribution of that economy, it's just speculation. I am looking for some short term risk (gain or loss). I am not changing my Fidelity portafolio as it is more costly to get in and out of the market, and I am looking for better entry into the market.

[Master]

I am still 100% invested in the I fund trying to recover losses from earlier this month, when I bought at $18.45. Today will be a good day.

TSP statements were posted earlier this morning. You can calculate the ACTUAL RETURNS by using the following simple formula:

(Change in account value)
(Initial balance + (Contributions/2))

This is because, on average, contributions were only working for your return during half of the time.

In my case, the 4th Quarter of 2005 was very helpful producing a +10.99% for my TSP account. Earlier in the year, I had a loss of -2.15% during 1st quarter, +2.50% for 2nd quarter and +2.47% for 3rd quarter with passive management. For my year, it was ... good.

[Master]

I made an IFT to 100% G from I before noon deadline. I expect to consolidate my gains from the past couple of months. Since March 8th, the I fund has NOT retreated. It has gone from 18.29 to 19.24, and today, I also expect to have a positive day for the I fund. This is due to the +1.74% gain of the Nikkei with a +0.68% valuation of the US dollar (vs Yen). The european market is mixed but close to flat with a -0.65% of the US dollar (vs Euro). I plan to re-enter the I fund very soon, as I do agree with Mr. Buffett assessment of the dollar.

[mlk_man]

Master, I believe Japan is closed today. I think you are looking at yesterday's price.

[Master]

You were correct. I was traveling and had internet access primarily via my PDA. It made me make an "OK" trade based on incorrect assumptions.

[Master]

IFT to 100% I before noon deadline.

[Master]

On 4/3, I got out of the I fund at 19.45. Today, when I took the decision to move back into the I fund, it was because:

- Long-term, the I fund, is our best bet against the decline of the American Economy that is being fueled beyond our means.
- the EFA ticker is droping at -0.73%, beyond the price where I sold.

Now, tomorrow we have three events that might push the I fund back up:

- The international trade report for Feb (4/12), which "primarily affect the value of the dollar in the foreign exchange market"
http://www.econoday.com/clients/basics/bloomberg/reports/US/EN/New_York/international_trade/year/2006/yearly/04/index.html
- The weekly gasoline inventory EAI report, which probably will temper the euphoria of oil stocks.
- Psychology - people need to invest their IRAs before tax deadline. The market appears to drop today. They will look at performance of mutual funds this past year, and many will choose some International exposure.

[Master]

Once again, I jumped into the I fund at least one day too early.

[Master]

Here we go again. I posted and did an IFT from 100% G to I. If the I fund drops more than 6 cents (from 20.04) today, I will be coming ahead of the I fund performance for that period.

I sold at 19.96, and transfer to G which paid a penny on Friday (point of equilibrium ~19.976).

[Master]

I was just looking at my recent returns for my TSP portafolio:

TSP YTD ===> +9.66% (updated prices from last M_M tracking spreadsheet - can be verified)
For comparison: G=1.43%; F=(-1.12%); C=5.17%; S=9.77%; I=14.38%; 20%each=5.93%
The main reason I underperformed the I-fund is that I missed the Jan 1-9 rally.

TSP since I started posting almost 6 months ago ===> +17.54% (11/05 to date - can be verified)
For comparison: G=2.26%; F=0.29%; C=9.62%; S=15.52%; I=21.94%; 20%each=9.92%


2005 actual TSP returns (from my statements) ===> +15.27% (can not be verified as I started posting until Nov.'05)

1st quarter 2006 actual TSP return ===> +4.58% as compared to +4.52% in M_M tracking spreadsheet.

[Master]

Last 3 months have been particularly good for me. Since Feb 1st, my TSP return is: +8.66%. (2/1 - 4/30/06). Particularly proud of outperforming the I-fund.

Comparisons (2/1-4/30):
G = +1.16%
F = -0.84%
C = +2.88%
S = +3.17%
I = +8.03%
20%each = 2.88%

YTD = +9.93% (1/1 - 4/30/06)

However, it is important to note that there are at least 12 TSPtalk members with better returns than I. Congrats!!!!

[vectorman]

Hi Master, for your YTD return above, did you use the formula that you put out before... (Change in account value ) divided by {Initial balance plus (Contributions divided by two)}

[Master]

For the return based on actual statements, I did. For the YTD, I used the tracking method from this website. The formula that you had presumes that contributions are spread equally during the period of observation.

The method used by Tom and mlk_man for tracking the principal is pretty accurate. The difference for 1st quarter between the actual return and the tracking method was only 0.06%, and that accounts for the effect from cost dollar averaging.

[Master]

I considering going briefly to S or G aiming to get a few extra cents out of I. I missed the deadline on Tuesday.

[Master]

IFT to 100% S before noon deadline.

[Master]

Well, gambling that S was going to do better than I today, let me down by 0.27%. I still was able to make 1.00%, so I'm still pretty happy.

[Master]

another gamble. investing 100% into F for a day or two.

Given that I still have about 79% of my assets in international funds (see my fidelity portafolio), this move is hedging a small pull back from the I fund. I think that we do not give enough credit to the Fed chairman. Despite his flaws and the situation that our economy, debt and trade deficits are, I think that he will defend a bit our currency.