Interfund Transfer 10/27 for 10/28/05

[tsptalk]

I'm not liking the short term action right now. I talked about being nimble when I jumped into stocks. Now I'm going to step aside for a few days. 100% G.

Effective 10/28/05 (COB 10/27).

[plpjap]

I did the same thing yesterday. Went from 100% C to 100% G. Still expect a year end rally....but not yet. I was only back in C for 10 days but made out.

[tsptalk]

Looks like you timed it better. :^

[smine]

On the subject Tom wrote about with timing and market closure hours: I encourage everyone to write this board often to explain the concept of we make more TSP makes more! They're in Washington, of course. The address is with this link. Tell them; write them.

"The Board. The Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board is an independent Government agency. The five members of the Board and the Executive Director (http://www.tsp.gov/features/def_ch1-board-members.pdf) are required by law to manage the TSP prudently and solely in the interest of the participants and their beneficiaries."

[tsptalk]

What a big difference it would have been this week if we didn't have that early deadline. I'm sure they'll just tell us that TSP wasn't meant to trade but I'm game to try to change that.

[grandma]

:#I have a problem: Thursday I went from 70 to 50% S, and the shares were reduced to 2378.1822. Friday 28th, I made changes only to my G & F. But the TSPconfirmationnow (Sat@ 0200)tells me my S shares have droppedby a count of 18...AND worse than that,instead of the balance increasing by the .23 gain, it decreased by nearly $300.

I will call them Monday unless one of you can show me where my understanding of thisreport has gone astray. If I had 50% yesterday I should still have50% today since I made no changes;and with a 23 cent increase in the cost/share, there should be an increase in balance rather than the decrease showing, right??? :X:@:x :i :@:@:@ I am worried now I have been too casual in my checking of these nightly reports -

tyia for your assists

[mlk_man]

Grandma, the S fund had a bigger loss on Thursday than it gained on Friday. You also had more shares on Thursday than you did on Friday. The only wayyou wouldhave come out ahead was to of bought more shares on Thursday when it dropped big and then sold them on Friday when it gained.

ANother way to look at it, the S fund dropped 1.9% on Thursday and 70% of your balance was in it. THis means you lost 1.33% of your balance. ON Friday the S fund gained 1.53% but you only had 50% of your balance in it so you gained .77% of your balance. This results in a loss of about .76% of your balance from Wed. close.

Basically, on Fridayyou onlygained back about half of what you lost on Thursday by decreasing your share percentage.

Hope this helps and sorry you lost money. :(

Now if they are saying you lost money from Thursday close to Friday close, then something is wrong.

M_M

[grandma]

Okay Mlk: Friday morning @0100 I have 2378 shares $35672 in S

I did not make any move in S during this time span, still 50%

Saturday morning @ 0100 I have 2360 shares $35945 in S

I don't mean toadvertise my poverty in tsp, but I need to show the numbers. I am `number clueless'so am not able to use ratios, etc, & understand which represents what.

So - ?? What do you think.......??? Thanx for the assisting !!:)

[vectorman]

grandma wrote:
Okay Mlk: Friday morning @0100 I have 2378 shares $35672 in S

I did not make any move in S during this time span, still 50%

Saturday morning @ 0100 I have 2360 shares $35945 in S

I don't mean toadvertise my poverty in tsp, but I need to show the numbers. I am `number clueless'so am not able to use ratios, etc, & understand which represents what.

So - ?? What do you think.......??? Thanx for the assisting !!:)

grandma I checked the numbers and 2360 S shares are correct. Even though you made more money at the close of Friday, when you request a new IFT ( inter-fund transfer ) TSP combines the individual fund totals at the COB, then divides the total by the new requested IFT. Whenever you request an IFT, you are basically selling, then buying shares at theCOB price for that day. Look at your IFT confirmation, itshows you this under the title 'before' and 'after'. When the sums for the S, C and F were combined forthe total, then divided into your new 50% S and G request, the new total for the 50% S was buying S shares at the higher price of 15.23 andgiving you a new share total that ended up being18 less than what you had. What you ended up doing was taking some of your profit from the S fund, then placing it in the G fund. I will send you a PM with the numbers, hope this helps.

[mlk_man]

Thanks vectorman. Does this make since grandma? When you make an IFT, you can't just say "put my 50% F into the G fund". You actually have to "sell" all your shares and then "buy" back whatever yourallocation request was, like vectorman said.

Let's say Thurs. you went 50% F and 50% S and you have $10,000. That would put $5000 in the F fund and $5000 in the S fund. Then let's say Friday the F fund lost 1% and the S fund gained 5%. You would then have $4950 in the F fund and $5250 in the S fund. You then request an IFT to go 50% G and 50% S. That means half your balance goes to G and the other half to S. Your balance is $4950 + $5250 = $10200 so $5100 goes to G and $5100 goes to S fund. You'll lhave fewer shares of S because you bought them back at a higher price, but your over balance will be up.

I don't even pay attention to how many shares I have. I just make sure my balance goes up.

You should call them anyway because I'm curious to hear how they would explain it other than to say "I'm sorry ma'am but I'm sure our computers are correct and if didn't make so many moves you wouldn't have to worry about it as much". :shock:

[Greg]

tsptalk wrote:
What a big difference it would have been this week if we didn't have that early deadline. I'm sure they'll just tell us that TSP wasn't meant to trade but I'm game to try to change that.I'm game too. Someone posted that TSP wrote them saying they needed 2 hours to determine the funds trades. Fine, then let them make the deadline at 2 PM. :@

[Pete1]

It will be interesting to see how the competitive bidding process for F, C, S, and I plays out. If Barclays loses and a domestic firm wins, you folks may have more leverageto push for alater deadline. I don't recommend frequest trading but Iwould like for TSP to beup to date. Both of the companies holding my IRAfunds have the 4PM eastern deadline.

[Spaf]

IFT pro and con

The concept of buying and holding for long periods of time crashed with the market in 2000. Some folks have gotten completely out of investing. Others are looking for new ways to invest and or trade. Some investors carefully balance their portfolio using the buy and hold strategy and periodically change holdings, more so than before the crash.

Others have moved to the world of trading, which there are several types: Day traders never hold a position in a security overnight, and they share the higher risks. There is also what is called swing trading. Swing traders hold positions a bit longer, maybe days, maybe weeks. The third category is position trading. Position trading involves transfering funds in and out of positions and holding for a few weeks, month or even a year or more. Position traders look on trends, the economy, the marketplace, and the individual stocks.


tsptalk said: "I'm sure they'll just tell us that TSP wasn't meant to trade."


Well then TSP doesn't understand. Buy and hold "autopilot"crashed in 2000. Just about everone is a trader now, in one form or another! The definition of trading is now quite large, even for those that have brokers or fund managers. Yes, even Mrs. Stewart!


Could the 12:00 ET deadline for TSP transfers be improved for participants? Yes, I think it can be better! Generally by noon, the market has just settled down (sometimes). A 2:00 PM ET deadline would be better!


The early deadline could be unnecessary. The arguement for it doesn't seem to be valid. If it is practical to extend it to 2:00 PM ET. It should be! Is TSP against it, if so, we need a valid reason.

My 2 cents :) Spaf

[Buffetology]

TSP Admin,

Can you explain to me the difference between interfund and allocation changes. I am new at this game, and so far I have been doing straight allocation changes with no interfund transfers. Am I loosing out?Are you doing just interfund transfers and no allocation changes? and if you are do you set one or the other (allocation or interfund) to 0% while you play the other? :?

[biggdog1]

B, Biggdog here. Your allocations are how your payroll deduction is put in your TSP account (ie 100% S-Fund or whichever fund you designate). IFT's however can be done daily or whenever you see fit to accomodate the markets. IFT's will not change your payroll allocation. As you can see by checking this board, several members do many IFT's (myself included) and some let their money set for the ride. Hope this helps.



BIGGDOG

[tsptalk]

tsptalk wrote:
I'm not liking the short term action right now. I talked about being nimble when I jumped into stocks. Now I'm going to step aside for a few days. 100% G.

Effective 10/28/05 (COB 10/27).
A little explanation for the those who may not have seen the logic orresults of this transaction. (I had a few emails about why I did this).

When I madethis transfer about an hour before the deadline on 10/27, the Dow was down about 20+ points. After the deadline - that afternoon, the Dow closed down 115. So I smelled trouble but was unable to react quickly enough because of the deadline. Once the Dow was down heavy I immediately realized this move was going to backfire in the short term as the indicators became very oversold.

Right now (Monday) they are on the overbought side again.

Thanks,
Tom

[grandma]

mlk_man wrote:
Thanks vectorman. Does this make since grandma? When you make an IFT, you can't just say "put my 50% F into the G fund". You actually have to "sell" all your shares and then "buy" back whatever yourallocation request was, like vectorman said.
Vectorman & Mlk_man - thank you both for your responses. I got pulled away from the computer and am just now getting back to it. I will study what you've both said. I have not called tsp - yet. based on some mis-interpretations I have made some bad moves - hopefully I will get straightened out today !!!:^ thank you again -

[grandma]

Spaf wrote:
IFT pro and con
tsptalk said: "I'm sure they'll just tell us that TSP wasn't meant to trade."
Could the 12:00 ET deadline for TSP transfers be improved for participants? Yes, I think it can be better! Generally by noon, the market has just settled down (sometimes). A 2:00 PM ET deadline would be better!
The early deadline could be unnecessary. The arguement for it doesn't seem to be valid. If it is practical to extend it to 2:00 PM ET. It should be! Is TSP against it, if so, we need a valid reason.
My 2 cents :) Spaf
We could argue that if the deadline were pushed back to 2pm, that we might be more comfortable with where we are and Not make an ift afterall. ??

[smine]

The power of the pen, ladies and gentlemen. I wrote and so should we all. It's our investments and they work for us. We should justsnow them in Washington with letters with this request! Yeah, they will reply about their excuses but it makes them work to explain.

[HAMBONE]

Am I allowed to reply on this page, and give my INT's, and also follow you guy's? If not, where do I go to reply?

[tennisguy]

HAMBONE wrote:
Am I allowed to reply on this page, and give my INT's, and also follow you guy's? If not, where do I go to reply?
start your own topic under the section:
Member Allocations, Transactions and Returns (forum21/) (post percentages)
and
Members' Allocation Talk (forum1/) (post thoughts and why)

Good luck
Tennisguy

[Spaf]

HAMBONE wrote:
Am I allowed to reply on this page, and give my INT's, and also follow you guy's? If not, where do I go to reply?
Hambone,
If U need help, put cursor on a bold Spaf (Username) . Left click, sellect private message, and we can chat. Get U started, etc.
Rgds! :) Spaf

[tsptalk]

HAMBONE wrote:
Am I allowed to reply on this page, and give my INT's, and also follow you guy's? If not, where do I go to reply?
Take a look here... http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21(be sure to read the first post about the rules),
and here ... http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum1.

Thanks!
Tom

[glennbartel]

I TRANSFER MY ACCOUNTS THE SAME WAY. I THINK PARTICIPANTS SHOULD TRANSFER OUT OF STOCKS INTO G FUNDWHEN ITS AT ALLTIME HIGH AND STARTED GOING BACK DOWN,OR EVEN IF THEY THINK ITS GOING TO GO DOWN $.10,THEN BUY BACK IN AT LOWER SHARE PRICES,YOU WILL EARN MORE SHARES WITH THIS STRATEDGY,AND ONLY PUT ALLOCATONS INTO G-FUND,THEN TRANSFER PROPERLY,AND YOU HAVE TO WATCH FUNDS DAILY,AND PAY ATTENTION TO THE OUTLOOK REPORTS



.



GLENN BARTEL

[glennbartel]

ADMINISTARTOR PAY ATTENTION TO THIS COMMENTARY,

I CONSIDERD THAT ALOT OF ARE PARTICIPANTS ARE NOT REALLY PRO-INVESTORS,SO THEY DONT KNOW HOW TO BUY AND SELL PROPERLY OR JUST LEAVE THERE MONEY IN G-FUND,

MY SOLUTION

A NEW INV-FUND,THE PARTICIPANTS CAN PUT THERE MONEY IN THE FUND, THEN FILL OUT A ALLOCATION WHICH ALSO NOWGIVES THEM AUTHORITY TO PUT AN AMOUNT OR PERCENTAGE OF THERE ACCOUNT IN INV. ACCOUNT WHICH THE TSP HAS FULL POWER OF ATTORNEY TO TRADE THE FUNDS THE BEST THEY KNOWHOW, I THINK IT WOULD DO REALLY GOOD.ID REALLY TRUST THE INVESTORS WE HIRED.TSP LOSES TOO MUCH MONEY BECAUSE IT IS NOT MANAGED PROPERLY.

GLENN BARTEL

[tsptalk]

Welcome Glenn. Thanks for your input.

The objective of this site is to inform and teach people how tounderstand their accounts and what makes the stock and bond markets tick. From what I read on the message board and in feedback from readers, I thinkwe are achieving this although there is always room for improvement.

Your idea may have merit if people are willing to pay a fee for aservice such as that. I don't believe this should be an expense that all TSPparticipants whould be responsibe to pay, just like I believe active TSP memberslike me should pay appropriatefeescompared to inactive participants.

So, I'm hear to inform those who want to manage their own account. I'm not sure I'd be interested in a managed account but I'm sure their are others who would.

Thanks for joining us!
Tom

[elvirahoney]

Isit too late to transfer to 100% G?

[Master]

The G-fund is essentially cash in money market account. You could transfer to G-fund all your TSP assets if you place a IFT before noon of a working day or if it was received after the noon deadline, the transfer will be posted at the end of the next working date. It is never too late to transfer to cash. The market goes up or down, but the G-fund is steady. The last two months of the year traditionally are good for stocks. I would suggest that to stay invested into stocks until Dec. 15 or so. At that point, you could place all money in cash and wait for signals in January as to how the market appears to behave.

If you leave your money in the C-fund, over several decades, it will do better on average than the G or F funds. Your other alternative is to place them in the new L funds, which are intended to adjust their allocation without consumer inputto match a target year for retirement.

[tsptalk]

elvirahoney wrote:
Isit too late to transfer to 100% G?
Welcome elvirahoney. I wish I had waited this long. It's not too late but please make sure you understand whyyou are doing it. That's what this site is all about.

Thanks for joining us and good luck!

Tom

[coolhand]

Tom,

With respect to your market comments today, I'm glad you pointed out to your growing following why your market moves differ from RevShark's. Our flexibility is way too limited to trade tsp funds in the manner RevShark trades stocks.

Folks need to understand that despite that difference there is still much that can be learned from RevShark's commentary and also why much respectshould be afforded to your own investment strategies posted for our benefit. It is anything but easy to manuveur our TSP accounts in a market that is often choppy or moves quicker than we can execute interfund transfers.

It takes a whole lot of time and energy to gain a true understanding of what makes the market tick.Be patient, listen, andcontinue to learn all that one can with an open mind.Our financial futures are certainly worth the effort!

Coolhand

[Safetyguy]

So Coolhand, where have you been the last few months?

[coolhand]

Took a break. Needed to recharge so to speak. :)

[tsptalk]

coolhand wrote:
Tom,

With respect to your market comments today, I'm glad you pointed out to your growing following why your market moves differ from RevShark's. Our flexibility is way too limited to trade tsp funds in the manner RevShark trades stocks.
Thanks for the feedback on the RevShark comments.

Since I started this siteI have made a few changes to my approach. I learned that some people like to be active and others get frustrated trying to follow me if I jump in and out of funds.

I'd like to try to come up with an alternate strategy for myself and those who want to be more active. Right now, because of my day job, I can't make market decisions 15 or 30 minutes before the deadline because Ifeel obligated to get out an email alertwith enough time for others to react. So my deadline is more like 11 AM ET and even then I have to leave my work site to find a PC off site to fire off an email alert, because as some of you know, I am not allowed to get on this site at work, or any site that would promote TSP Talk (emails, message board, etc.) It definitely cramps my style. I am thinking of alternatives.

Thanks again,
Tom

[cowboy]

Tom wrote

I'd like to try to come up with an alternate strategy for myself and those who want to be more active. Right now, because of my day job, I can't make market decisions 15 or 30 minutes before the deadline because Ifeel obligated to get out an email alertwith enough time for others to react. So my deadline is more like 11 AM ET and even then I have to leave my work site to find a PC off site to fire off an email alert, because as some of you know, I am not allowed to get on this site at work, or any site that would promote TSP Talk (emails, message board, etc.) It definitely cramps my style. I am thinking of alternatives.



Cowboy Says,"Isn't it sad thatmany governmentmanagersthink that controling others is a smart move. This is totally wrong as many younger companies have found. People work at different paces and what one can do in the matter of minutes may take hours for others. Productivity can not to be judged by time spent and many government managers feel that time spent is productive. This is a wrong prospective and is the reason government loses good employees. Government managers feel workload is a reason for employment, this basically is the reason for procrastination."

[FundSurfer]

tsptalk wrote:
I'd like to try to come up with an alternate strategy for myself and those who want to be more active.
I'd suggest you just create an alter ego and post to the board. I wouldn't put your aggressive moves in the e-mails. I would suggest that your e-mail moves should be a little more conservative and of the type that you could make your decision the night before so that those e-mails go out on your own computer. That way you would keep from doing the quick in/out with that group.

As to how to make your moves know prior to the deadline there are several wireless options available. They would cost for the service and the equipment but could be done anywhere.

As to your current moves, I am beginning to find that even if you miss a big move, it may be better to move a day late than not move at all. For example, last January I didn't bail when the market dived but rather held on too long. This fall when it dived, I was fully invested but dove to G ASAP. The market continued down and I was able to step back in much lower. We may be limited in terms of time of day we can move, but it doesn't cost us anything to move. I think you'd be better off taking whatever weakness does come along. Just my two cent.

[Birchtree]

I think fundsurfer is correct - you need an alter ego so you can be free of the burden of others on your shoulders. When I came to the board I was in 100% C fund and I'm still there. Now if TSP were my only account I would have selected 75% C fund and 25% I fund and I'd still be there collecting my dollar cost averaging purchases. There are so many members that would do just fine with those allocations which are of a secular nature. We are all on guard for the next approaching recession - but it may just be years away - until then buy and hold can be terribly profitable. Peel off the outer layer and let the real you have some fun - if a crises developes you'll have ample time to send alerts.

Cowboy,

Throw Tom a rope and help him up out of that there darn quick sand so he can enjoy the fruits of his labors. Any way, you should see this Ark I just built. Take care.

Dennis

[tsptalk]

That sounds like a workable plan. I already have the "longer term comments (http://www.tsptalk.com/longer_term.html)" in which I post suggested allocations for the non-active investors (currently only updated twice a year). Those allocations have done well this year.

So, maybe I willstart anactive account and second buy & hold less active account and track both. Then memberscan sign up for either, or both, email alerts. Hmmm.

Thanks for the ideas.

Tom

[glennbartel]

TRADED FROM S TO G EFFECTIVE 18 NOV,VOLUME'SARE WAY UP ACROSS THE MAJOR INDEXSAT NOV 18 CLOSE,I THINK THE MARKET WILL OPEN TO HIGH MON. NOV 21, AND A PULLBACK IS NEEDED FOR A STRONG END OF YEAR RALLY,ILL BUY BACK INTO S AND MAYBE I ON MON NOV 21 BEFORE 12 EST.VOLUME IS PREDICTED TO GO DOWN IN SHORT WEEK,INDIATES A POSSIBLE PULLBACK ON MON. I THINK ILL STAY IN TO END OF YEAR AFTER THIS BUY INTO S,

[grandma]

glennbartel wrote:
TRADED FROM S TO G EFFECTIVE 18 NOV,VOLUME'SARE WAY UP ACROSS THE MAJOR INDEXSAT NOV 18 CLOSE,I THINK THE MARKET WILL OPEN TO HIGH MON. NOV 21, AND A PULLBACK IS NEEDED FOR A STRONG END OF YEAR RALLY,ILL BUY BACK INTO S AND MAYBE I ON MON NOV 21 BEFORE 12 EST.VOLUME IS PREDICTED TO GO DOWN IN SHORT WEEK,INDIATES A POSSIBLE PULLBACK ON MON. I THINK ILL STAY IN TO END OF YEAR AFTER THIS BUY INTO S,Hi Glennbartel ! Welcome - Have you startedyour `account' & `account talk' pages yet? It will be easier for me to seeyour contininuous running action if you have your stuff all together - Thanx - And have a good time - :^

[Christopher]

Hey Tom & fellow TSPers,

I'm new at this TSP DayTrading thing. :P On October 14, 2005, I went 40C/30S/30I for some nice gains up 'til now, but MAN, that bulls/bears ratio finally got to me - couldn't ignore that feeling of "eventually..." any longer! I'm taking my wad of green and ske-e-e-daddling to safety for now, at least until I spot the next sweet ride into 2005. ;) 100% CA & IFT to G for 11/25/2005. :^

[tsptalk]

Welcome Christopher!

It's nice to see you, and many of our other members, took adbantage of the rally much lot better than I did. This has been remarkable strength and probably portends to good things to come in the future. But unless everything I have learned and observed in the market over the past million years is going to fall to the wayside, I greatly expect the marketto take a break very soon.

Sounds like you played it great - but we never knowfor sure I guess.

Thanks for joining us!
Tom