Interfund Transfer 10/12 for 10/13/05

[tsptalk]

The market has been all over the place already this morning and as I write this it is down. I will take advantage of more weakness and put some money in the stock funds.

Also, as I mentioned in the market comments, I am putting my "idle" money in bonds. I am making an interfund trasfer this morning going 50% C, 50% F fund. This will be a short term move.

Tom

Ended up going 70% C, 30% F. Last minute decision when market started to tank.

[Bandito85fxsb]

Why do so many people jump in and out of the TSP funds?

Whattells them when to make a move?

[tsptalk]

Welcome Bandito!

Everyone has their own strategy. I post mine daily on http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html).

Let us know if you have any questions.

Tom

[Rolo]

Bandito85fxsb wrote:
Why do so many people jump in and out of the TSP funds?

Whattells them when to make a move?

One could write a thesis on that since there are so many reasons.

Ultra-short answer: Because one thinks a particular fund or funds will outperform the others.

[Citizen]

One could write a thesis on that since there are so many reasons.

I'd hate to be the PhD defending that one...

I'd rather tackle chaos itself. At least chaos doesn't flirt and pretend that you understand something.:s

[Bandito85fxsb]

I've made eight trades since the first of the year using a MACD spread sheet to track trends in the "S" and "I" funds. Using the fund return spread sheet down loaded from here it looks like Iam at 14.63% for the year. The percentages match my gains, haves anybuddy had this luck?

[tsptalk]

Bandito85fxsb wrote:
I've made eight trades since the first of the year using a MACD spread sheet to track trends in the "S" and "I" funds. Using the fund return spread sheet down loaded from here it looks like Iam at 14.63% for the year. The percentages match my gains, haves anybuddy had this luck?
Bandito -
I may sound like a jerk saying this but our experience has been that people who come in and say something liketheir return is xx% and it is well above any return we have seen, and in your caseit is more than double the return of the highest fund, we tend to be skeptical.

You either miscalculated (i.e. including your contributions as gains which is a common mistake), orWarren Buffett is looking for you to manage his money. :D

Credibility is earned here as we ask our members topost theirmoves in our Account tracking forum. http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/ (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/).The rules are posted here ... http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/1840.html (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/1840.html)

If you want to start an account, let me know if you need any help. I'll be glad to get it started for you. If youcontinue to post double digit gains when the S&P 500 is down, I will be the first to pay you for your advice. ;)

Best of luck!
Tom

[Rolo]

Bandito85fxsb wrote:
I've made eight trades since the first of the year using a MACD spread sheet to track trends in the "S" and "I" funds.
Care to share that spreadsheet? A couple of us tried coming up with a MA system but kinda abandoned it.

[Bandito85fxsb]

Rolo, I can't give away the golden goose, but read The Visual Investor by John Murpy. Thats how I started. Then check out http://www.gummy-stuff.org. lots of info there.

I built one chart with a50day SMA, 13 day SMA signal and the fund share price. Down loadsix months of prices, but I chart two. This chart gives me fund support. And trend.

Then I have a 26,12,9 day EMA with a histogram for my buy and sell triggers. Samesix months of prices, but chart two months.

Build these two charts for each TSP fund and have fun ! but do read the book to make sense of it all.

Bandito

[Rolo]

Holy crap that site is chaotic!

I just started reading John Murphy's Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets. I'll make sure I have The Visual Investor next.

I was toying with the idea of using 13- & 39-day MA's...dunno why...they just seemed to fit better. I haven't been able to give myself over to a strictly mechanical trading system yet.

re: "golden goose". No offense, but you aren't the first to come here with a TSP holy-grail-in-the-works über-secret system. The problem is, no-one has delivered in returns. [Isn't that right, milkie?] To beat the inevitable skepticism, make sure you post your trades before the deadline.

[mt]

What are your current allocations. The daily comments does not agree with those posted under current allocations.

Thanks for the advice.

[Greg]

Bandito85fxsb wrote:
I've made eight trades since the first of the year using a MACD spread sheet to track trends in the "S" and "I" funds. Using the fund return spread sheet down loaded from here it looks like Iam at 14.63% for the year. The percentages match my gains, haves anybuddy had this luck?Congratulations, that's great!

I did notice on your spreadsheet that you are currently 100%-I Fund and have had a 3.3% losethis month that you are NOTcounting in your 14.64%.

Please tell us how your MACD spreadsheet works.

[tsptalk]

mt wrote:
What are your current allocations. The daily comments does not agree with those posted under current allocations.

Thanks for the advice.

Thanks. I guess I never uploaded the change. The comments page was correct and I made the update.

Thanks again,
Tom

[Bandito85fxsb]

Rolo, No offence taken. However I would look to find a more fluid MACD formula for the moving day averages?? Rather than sticking with standard numbers.

Oh I,m 100% in the "G" waiting for a signal. I didn't update my returns sheet before posting. My graphs show "F" crossing over but no weight, followed in the next day by "C" still no weight then by the "S" possibly by tuesday or wednesday (10/25-26/05). I still look tothe "I" to make the biggest gains.

And with a look into Gummy's crytsal ball I might gain a little?