View Full Version : Pill's Account Talk
My plan is to keep dollar cost averaging.
50 C
50 I
I have been reading this forum for about a year and decided finally to start putting some inputs. Rookie invester trying to learn. :^
tsptalk
10-12-2005, 12:49 AM
Welcome pill, and best of luck!
Tom
Thnks Tom.
Good thing about dollar cost averaging is when the market keeps doing what its doing I dont worry to much about it. I just keep buying share each payday!:D
I believe the bulls are going to run soon!
Making a move to get more spread out. IFT C 20, I 60, S 20. Isense the CS and I all should maintain there upward trend through the New Year. Any input would be great about which funds you are liking. Very new investor and still learning the ropes! Good luck to all.
OK its nice to be back on a computer. The market seems to be heading the right direction!
I just got married, so I have been out of the loop for a few days!
Dollar cost averaging 30 c, 30 s, 40 i! Seems to be working great.
I had to pull a 5k loan out of TSP for help with the wedding. Should have it paid back in three months.
Good luck to all and Merry Christmas!:D
Birchtree
01-07-2006, 05:44 PM
RD pillow,
Dollar cost averaging into the I fund at 40% - exactly how low do you really want it to correct - something like $17.66. That's too conservative you buy more shares at $17.00
Dennis
Dennis,
My learing and understanding the market isnt coming along as fast I would like it to. I wish there was a class I could take. Reading this board is helping alittle but I end up basing my decisions off of respected members like your self. Right now all I know to do is just keep DCA. I'm basicly just pumping more money into the funds each pay period. I dont know when to pull my money out of a fund except when there seems to be a pull back. Looking at the share prices every thing seems high with potential to go higher. Should I take some profits? If so, where should I shift and when do I buy again? What should I do??
I would have just continued to ride along waiting for others to say there is going to be a pull back before moving my money.
So should I have my $$ going into a fund with a lower share price waiting for the other funds to drop? What does correct exactly mean? And does it always correct after a run up?
Sorry for all the questions but very curious and eager to understand and take charge of my retirement even though it seems so far away.
Thanks D and any other who feel like enlightening me.
Birchtree
01-08-2006, 02:58 PM
pill,
I'll relate an experience I encountered today from another board as an example of possibilities and probable mistakes. There is a TSP participant who has been dollar cost averaging into the C fund for 12 years, but has now decided to go into the I fund at 100%. Not my idea of a smart move - but he may end up correct. You take your chances with the available information you research. IMHO the C fund is primed to outperform the other funds over the next five years for many reasons. So theoretically his move was premature looking for excitement - boring is always best - and painful corrections are even better. You'll have plenty of time to learn how to deal with losses and also take advantage of lower pricing. Time can be the healer of many mistakes. Learn as much as you can and be patient - you'll be surprised how quickly you'll reach the power account level - then you'll be educated and prepared to make some real money. When you can purchase a position equating to 40,000 shares of a fund you can begin to use your imagination as tothe potential. Take care. With what I know at this moment I'd be 75% C fund and 25% I fund with the same contribution allocations - and I would not dump my funds during any give back or corrections - they will not be that deep.
Dennis
Moving out of the S fund. IFT cob on the 12th.
65 C, 35 I.
Thnks D.
I fund seems to be getting alittle high for me not to take some off the top. Who knows what will continue. I would like to see keep growing but not going to stay to heavy in it. While c fund seems relatively low I am going to continue to dollar cost average and wait for this bull market I have only heard of but never been aboard because I just got started investing.
IFT cob 2/1 80 c and 20 i.
Good luck!
IFT going 65% C, 35% I Fund. Effective 2/13 cob
Going 50 C, 50 I! IFT 2/17
Making an IFT going 70 C and 30 I.
I fund seems to be alittle high so I want to retain some profits, however the C fund seems to still be waiting to take off. So I am am moving 20% into the C fund. Come on little c fund engine. YOU CAN DO IT!
Can any one help me to understand the IFT. I just placed and IFT and it says it can take up to two days. Is that just for the website to update my moves. I understand that since I placed this tranfer over the weekend it would go into effect cob Monday, right? Please some one break down the IFT for me or refer me where I can find information on it. Thanks.
pill --
I'm certainly not an expert, but I can testify that with MY TSP account, if I make an IFT before noon (EST), my request goes into effect after COB the same day. Acutally, I usually get an email confirmation from TSP at or around 11:30pm or so EST. Sometimes I get an email confirmation earlier but definitely after 5:00pm EST and definitely the same day.
I have been known to submit an IFT on the weekend and the same rules apply just as if it was submitted prior to noon on Monday.
Make sure you keep your time changes correct when making your IFT, that COULD cause it to delay an extra day. I'm sure this is obvious to you (and doesn't really matter on weekends) but wanted to make sure I made the point clear. VERY IMPORTANT.
GOOD LUCK! I'm not sure what I'm going to do yet on Monday, may lay low for a while given that we are into April and tax season. This time has always been bad luck for me regarding my stocks.
Chaser
04-09-2006, 12:39 PM
Hi pill:
This site has helped me understand fundamentals and beyond:
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/site_map.htm
I'm just a beginner also.
Good luck,
Chaser
Thanks for the info, Ayla and Chaser.
Living on Guam can be hard to get the timing right. The market usually closes within the first hour of me waking up. I tried checking it in the middle of the night but decided against that quick. I am just starting out so I have plenty of time. I am staying bullish and seeking aggresive gains!
Good luck this month!
Hope you don't mind the company Birchtree. IFT 4/30 100% C FUND!
I am learning I should start including my IRA investments (small, mid, large) with my TSP decisions to adjust my portfolio to maximize the gains! It's funny the more you learn the more you realize their is some much more to learn!
I believe things will be shifting over the course of the next 12 months small cap and large should be on the decline. Can any one reply with a simple break down of the stock funds C, S, I?
Thanks and good luck!
learning
05-02-2006, 11:41 AM
I'm only learning...
You will find on the bottom of the screen your answer.
"C" fund is made up of the S&P 500
"S" fund is made up of the Wilshire 4500
"I" Fund is made up of the EAFE.
The TSP people then take these and change them up a little to try and increase the returns. So they may buy a few more of one stock and a little less of another. They use these as their guides.
Boy, I sure wish I didn't pull out of the I fund. I got out at 20.30 and now its 20.95. I only had 30% but hey thats allot of money! Better to be on the safe side and lose out than to lose allot. Good on ya, for all those riding the I WAVE!
Master
05-10-2006, 09:04 AM
Aggressive
C-0%
S-0%
I-100%
Growth
C - 30%
S - 30%
I - 40%
Conservative
L20xx fund - 100%
Placed an IFT for 50% I and 50% C. May look into putting more into the I fund on Monday. Have a great weekend every one!
Correction, Aggressive it is then 100% I Fund!
Well I sold the 30% I fund at 20.30, just bought into 100% at 20.25. It may drop more but I am thinking on holding and just dollar cost averaging in the I fund all the way up.
Ouch! I fund. Like they say No Pain No Gain! Sitting 100% I.
What is going on?
Sink or swim? Sell or stay? I am staying put but also a rookie invester.
Happy Investing!
Ouch! I fund. Like they say No Pain No Gain! Sitting 100% I.
What is going on?
Sink or swim? Sell or stay? I am staying put but also a rookie invester.
Happy Investing!
I'm right there with ya. We'll ride this one out yet!;)
Sweet! If only the I Fund could gain $2 more dollars and I will be even.
Sweet! If only the I Fund could gain $2 more dollars and I will be even.
BTW, I Bailed to (S) a couple days ago.:D
I am holding onto the idea, You don't lose until you sell.
Good luck!
She will bounce back, she always does.
I am holding onto the idea, You don't lose until you sell.
Good luck!
She will bounce back, she always does.
My philosophy is that you don't actually lose until you withdraw your $$$ from the account!:D
Finally the I fund has regained its share price. I have been waiting for her to rise. Going to stick with it for a bit..
Still holding 100% I.
I am planning on going 50/50 C & I, once she climbs again. Hopefully this downward trend is just a resting period. Every thing has to breath.
Mayb 25 C and 75 I.
Birchtree
08-27-2006, 04:44 PM
The Japanese are coming to the conclusion that they still don't have enough inflation in their system to raise prices. They may have to hold back on any further interest rate increases.
Shifting abit going 50 F and 25C & I.
IFT canceled, staying long with the I fund 100% I guess. She's bound to pay off sooner or later. I have been riding 100% in it for several months now with not that much action. I am still looking to diverse but the C-fund is to high to jump in right now. Just my thoughts...
Time to slowly start moving out of the I fund. Shifted to 20% C, 30% S, and 50% I Fund. Let see what happens. Hopefully when she corrects its only a small pull back, before she continues to ride the train. Bullish
L2040 is starting to sound good. I can't believe its beating me. I read, I study, I learn, and put in not allot but some time trying, hell I even pay for knowledge,and 2040 is ahead of me. Maybe investing in those funds are just worth if for some guys. I am even thinking so in my Roth IRA's. Any ways for now I am going to stick with it, but at the end of the year and its still beating me I am going to just jump in it.
What a nice day. Things are looking good. I should stay the same through the holidays. Maybe shift alittle more into the S-Fund some time. I believe the S has room to explose however it wont last long. Maybe until the end of the year. Any ways still holding 20 C, 30 S, 50 I.
Whahoo!
Man I don’t know what to do. Things are rockin!
I was thinking about shifting more into the S fund and lighter on the I fund, however right now I don’t know what to do. Maybe staying put is the best choice.
This momentum doesn’t want to slow down.
I am happy too bad it’s not power account yet.
Birchtree
12-04-2006, 07:07 PM
Patience is virtuous - your day will come and you'll have everything.
Well I have been pretty happy with the year. Would have liked more of course, but with this site I have learned allot, as well as received a better return with having found this site. Around a 16% return, can't complain, they say any thing above 8 is good, right?
Thanks to all who share their generous knowledge for free (even the new guys, every ones input is important and remember there’s no dumb questions)! May God bless you all and may you prosper in all you do!
Currently sitting 20 C, 30 S, 50 I. I am thinking about moving more into the S fund to catch a short term gain (month or two). I fund is going steady and not too sure what do. I sure love the I fund gains but am also aware of the damage it can do sitting too heavy and too long in it (watch out new guys). I should be sitting heaviest in the C fund this year as I believe it will out perform the others. But then again I don't know much!
Thanks Tom for this site, also way to go on your long term account. I am looking forward to seeing what your allocation will be for it this year. Great returns. I may have to join in on it.
Placing an IFT 30 I 50 S and 20 C fund at COB on Jan 2, even though the market is closed. Didnt know if it mattered putting when.
No need to run out of the way! Just sit tight, and let the bulls run.
Birchtree
02-01-2007, 02:27 PM
I like your style. You know money likes money.
I am pulling back slightly on the S fund, placed an IFT before noon 3/30.
30 C, 30 S, 40 I Fund. Well see for how long. I am not really sure whats going on so just waiting, waiting for what I dont know!
Allocation staying the same.
30% C, 30% S, 40% I.
Not sure what to do but it seems to be working.
No need to run! Just sitting tight.
Ooch! Alittle painful but I am in to WIN. I beleive staying put is the thing do do right now. I dont know much but I am betting this is just a breather, we will see what next week brings.
I sure am glad I have been in the market the last few days. Being right and sitting tight has paid off this time.
My allocation will remain the same with 30C 30s and 40I fund. My plan is to slow start moving some of the S and I Fund and beef up the C fund more. My information is telling me C fund will out perferm the S and I for the rest of the year. However I will remain in them all.
Best of luck to all! Thanks for the great posts.
You dont always win, but like Birch says you have to be in to win, just buying cheaper. Went from 13% for the year down to 5%. I knew a pullback was coming but I have a hard time with my emotions, not wanting to be out of the market while its going up. I have a long ways till retirement so plenty of time to learn. I didnt get hit twice though as my Roth IRA have been in a money market for the past few months. Time to buy!
30 C, 30S, 40I.
Well I had a gut feeling to place an IFT before noon on Friday to 100% I fund. I started to place it a few minutes before the deadline, but it took a while processing so as I only had less than a minute to process, I cancelled and closed it out. SO I THOUGHT. I just got the mail confirming my move to 100% I fund, and it didn’t go in before noon! So I bought in higher. I was just hoping to catch a quick easy gain and move back to my norm allocation. 30c30s40I. Instead I lost out.
Be in to win!
Note to self don’t wait until the last minute to make an IFT.
Placed an IFT with plenty of time today before the deadline. Moved 100F. I am thinking the Fed with cut rates .25, but would love .50%. But for practical reason I only see thing doing .25 next week and another .25 next month. The I fund should benefit the most.
However for the Santa rally that’s around the corner, I am seeing that small caps has performed a little better than the large capsover the course of history. Any thoughts?
Ebbs system sure seems to be working 25% return. It’s hard not to jump aboard with those percentages.
What allocations are you all planning for the Santa Rally? I like having a diverse allocation but interested to see what some old timers do. Thanks.
EW_ret
09-12-2007, 12:35 PM
I sent you a PM explaining the trackers.
For the new Automated Tracker, I need an email address that you frequent when posting on TSPTalk.com. Please send your email address by Private Message (PM), and I will update your user profile for the Automated Tracker. We need your email to send User ID and password to you. Once I update your user profile, I will send you login instructions by PM.
The Automated Tracker issues passwords automatically. The first time you access the login page you must request your temporary password by clicking Forgot Password. This is located below the Login window. You then enter your User ID and your temporary password will be emailed to you using the address you provided. You can change your password, under user profile, once you have successfully logged in.
The Automated Tracker is being tested by our members. During this test period there are two trackers. You must still enter your IFTs in your account thread for the official Weekly Tracker (WebTracker). This is still the official tracker until we fully transition to the new Automated Tracker. We request you enter the same fund allocations into the Automated Tracker. We want to exercise the new tracker and iron out any bugs that may appear. After all traders are registered with Automated Tracker, we will consider just using it to enter member IFTs and closing the Members' Accounts (no chat) threads. Until then we request you enter your IFTs in both your account thread and the Automated Tracker.
IFT transfer for COB 9/12/07 moved 100% F fund.
For tracking purposes is this where we are being tracked. I am alittle confussed with the new tracking software. If I remember correct it pulls up a log in page and none of my passwords or user names work. Please advise as I like seeing my percentage. Thanks.
Sonic
09-12-2007, 01:26 PM
I live in Mountain time and I've learned to do the IFT before 10:00 A.M. to be in the next day. I guess we learn from our mistakes. I hope the Santa rally is up and I plan to diversify hoping everything shows the BUUUUULLL.
Note to self don’t wait until the last minute to make an IFT.
Placed an IFT with plenty of time today before the deadline. Moved 100F. I am thinking the Fed with cut rates .25, but would love .50%. But for practical reason I only see thing doing .25 next week and another .25 next month. The I fund should benefit the most.
However for the Santa rally that’s around the corner, I am seeing that small caps has performed a little better than the large capsover the course of history. Any thoughts?
Ebbs system sure seems to be working 25% return. It’s hard not to jump aboard with those percentages.
What allocations are you all planning for the Santa Rally? I like having a diverse allocation but interested to see what some old timers do. Thanks.
Boghie
09-15-2007, 11:51 AM
Pill,
Can I ask a question?
I have been following your transactions and was planning on modeling mine somewhat after yours, but you have started to trade far more frequently.
My read on the market is that it is rather flat. Can you give your reasoning for your recent trade patterns - that is, transitioning to rapid, single fund trading?
R/S
Boghie
Pill,
Can I ask a question?
I have been following your transactions and was planning on modeling mine somewhat after yours, but you have started to trade far more frequently.
My read on the market is that it is rather flat. Can you give your reasoning for your recent trade patterns - that is, transitioning to rapid, single fund trading?
R/S
Boghie
Honestly I love my old way of trading. Less emotional. It was a little bit more of buy and hold and leaning a little heavier in wherever area I believed to be the star at the time. I am a fan of DCA'ing. It’s a winner.
My moves recently mainly have been due to watching co-workers follow Ebb and him being right on. I mean perfectly, selling high buying low. I was thoroughly impressed. Also looking at his 26% return you can't deny. So I tried to jump aboard. The moves recently haven’t worked out, however I am still optimistic. The rest of the year is going to pay off nicely. I am looking to gain at least another 10%. I am going to mix it up and follow ebb for a bit longer; however I won’t be following him 100%.
As far as which fund I like the most, it’s hard to say. I believe they all are looking good. Being diverse is a good way to go. I predict the C fund will take off and have a good month and half, and the S fund should perform better for Nov and Dec. I fund I don’t know what I am doing.
Wow, where is every on going?
I am staying put. I may move around a little but I am staying put in stocks.
Be in to Win. Looking to climb back up the ranks!
"Last year, Pointman72 went into a buy and hold strategy coming out of the pullback, no one was able to time the market well enough to outperform him. In fact, there were only a handful of red days for months afterwards."
Griffin
fabijo
09-19-2007, 12:02 PM
"Last year, Pointman72 went into a buy and hold strategy coming out of the pullback, no one was able to time the market well enough to outperform him. In fact, there were only a handful of red days for months afterwards."
Griffin
That's what I'm realizing, too. It's better to stay in most of the time in this market, then maybe pull some out when we are hitting the trend tops. Put it all in if we get nice corrections like we just got. I love ebb's system, but he has said it before - it does better during down months. It just seems we've already finished with those down months for at least a little while.
Now the trick is to figure out when to follow the ebbchart. :blink:
Yes you can't deny his awesome 27%. Man his system is HOT! I just wish I would have followed him earlier.
With the Santa Rally coming soon, I am sure the buy and hold will prevail.
Making some adjustments. 50 C, 30 S, 20 I.
kar_crazy
09-30-2007, 09:17 PM
my brother was at the game with his boy they went up by bus i bet it was a long strange trip home,i ran into ole Barry Switzer tonight at a resturant too ashamed to even say hi :embarrest: G L out there Phil
Q:
Well I finally got my father to talk to me about their TSP accounts. They have an $80k balance and have been sitting in the G fund for as long as I can remember. Mom and Dad are both retired. 40k each. They are in there 60's and won't need to draw on it for sure until 2010 or longer. I personally would like to take over and manage it myself but he has not given me permission to do so. So I think they should move both accounts into L2010. What are your thoughts? Is it too risky? Not risky enough? I know it all depends on when they will need it. I am sure this is all they have other than their pension. So maximizing is some thing they need. For sure the L2010 would be way better than dying in the G fund. Dad has lost allot in the past so risk is not something he enjoys doing. However in my mind I think its way more risky to be in the G fund and not capitalizing your account.
Advice? Recommendations?? Thanks.
nnuut
10-01-2007, 04:51 PM
Tough deal handling OPM (other peoples money) If I tried it I surly would lose money for them and feel like a fool!! L2010 is probably a good choice, but if you see a big drop like we had in July move them to the "G" and be a hero. I really know how you must feel.
Norman:o
Thanks Norm for your response.
We all know what we should do most of the time but it sure is nice hearing it from others to confirm.
Place an IFT today. Went 40c, 50s, 10i. Waiting to see what happens tomorrow. Bullish for the rest of the year. S fund is looking very good.
I haven't purchased any of the services yet however I plan on going with Ebb and Fred. Knowledge is Power! You have to do the foot work in order to succeed.
I was looking at Tom's Long Term aggressive account, great returns. Buy and hold dollar cost averaging pays off. If you don't know what you are doing this is a great approach. Don't waist you time/money shooting at the hip. But then again thats what I do. Do as I say not as I do. Or atleast thats what management tells me.
Birchtree
10-03-2007, 09:44 AM
Yes, I believe that friends do let friends buy and hold. I can't complain.
BigGuy
10-03-2007, 10:06 AM
Yes, I believe that friends do let friends buy and hold. I can't complain.
For the past several years, I had been 50% C and 50% S.
Since February, I've become an obsessive lurker here, and have made about 50 or so IFTs. I am up 9.47% for the year. The 50 C/50S is up 11.07%.
Mike Causey was somewhat correct in noting that few people come back from Las Vegas saying they were losers.
Scott
For the past several years, I had been 50% C and 50% S.
Since February, I've become an obsessive lurker here, and have made about 50 or so IFTs. I am up 9.47% for the year. The 50 C/50S is up 11.07%.
Mike Causey was somewhat correct in noting that few people come back from Las Vegas saying they were losers.
Scott
Thanks for another confirmation. Some people just don't like staying put. I have to laugh at some of my co-workers as they think they will miss something by staying put. The numbers speak for itself. I have been lucky enough to move around a little and make a little bit more than I would have staying put. However is it really worth all the time and effort for an additional 2-4%. For me, it is right now, it gives me a hobby. But then again if I wasn't beating the buy and hold it would make more since to go back to it.
Birchtree
10-03-2007, 10:34 AM
The Birchtree will tell you that staying long requires creativity and accumulating the right facts - so be right and then sit tight. All this bunny hopping around requires constant vigilance. A properly allocated portfolio doesn't need to be rejiggered every time the weather changes. I'll part with these words of wisdom: In order to really learn anything in this game you have to take it on the chin from time to time or be flat run over by the train. You'd be surprised how refreshing that can be - right Sugar?
BigGuy
10-03-2007, 12:06 PM
Yes, but look how much fun you had following the markets and making all those IFTs! Buy and hold is so boring (just ask Birchtree)...unlike Vegas and TSPTalk where the action is nonstop 24/7. What good is money anyway if you can't play with it and dream of hitting it big? :D
You are exactly right. It has been a lot of fun making all of the IFTs. I just went back and looked and was somewhat shocked to see that I have made 80 IFTs since the end of March.
I moved the percentages around again today, but I think I am going to stay all in for the remainder of the year.
Birchtree
10-03-2007, 12:13 PM
Now what if you had to pay an upfront fee of $5.00 everytime you did an IFT? Would that slow you down - some would reconsider and others would continue to roll forward. Now step out into the other world and you could be hit with a $50.00 fee everytime you made a move.
No kidding I am looking at opening a brokerage account and trading ETF's with Vanguard and the charge is $20 a trade.
Fees would cause me to trade less!
I'm also considering going to a buy-and-hold for about 60% of my account, while keeping the other 40% fluid for DCA opportunities. I'll elaborate more in my account talk once I finalize my strategy. :)
Thanks Paladin, please do post. I hope it works out great for you!
I have made a few moves since my last post. I am trying to sqeeze the most out of the market I can. I still haven't reached my high since the drop this summer (13%) I am sitting around 10% now. I am thinking bullish and not really concerned about a pull back. I am staying until the end of the year.
Birch, I moved completely out of the C today. Hard to stay when the other funds are out producing. I know your strategy is sound and works but staying put watching the others outperform is tough. History shows the S beats the C during the holidays so why not come play? I do believe the C will take over and out perform the S but don't believe it will happen until next year. Small caps are towards the end of there run.
Birchtree
10-11-2007, 10:09 AM
Nah, thanks but I'm happy in my manure pile. It's cozy and warm and the wafting is so pleasant. I smell money.
In that case, continue to accumulate your shares. I guess when the large caps take off and being that you are accumulation shares then you will pass many of us!
I just can't see that far yet, but I'm learning.
Bullitt
10-11-2007, 12:09 PM
It's OK to chase bubbles, but just don't be the last to sell. You couldn't catch me dead in Tech. PEP and WMT are only the beginning of what's in store for C Fund.
Mr recognizer
10-19-2007, 11:24 AM
pill..got your pm..dont know if i can help you as we seem to be diiferent types of investors...your vanguard is parked you know where and my vanguard is 80 stocks and 20% bonds..i hold only the global fund,the international growth fund,the wellington fund, and the total stk market...only 4 funds..as you can see i m a buy and hold kind of guy and am up 13.4% for the year at vg..i can get a better bang for my buck using funds rather than etf's..i m not a trader or timer and i feel thats the route you prefer as per your pm..if i were you i would maintain your allocation to the tsp and i would be at least 85% stocks at your age..but then again your risk tolerance and mine are different...we all have our own appetite for risk..as for your roth if it were mine and i was your age i would be 100% stocks and let it ride...probably 50 internationals and 50 % us...and set it and forget it...but thats just me..all mutual funds also with low expenses..but i bet you already knew that.agin its just your tolerance and appetite for risk but you have 30 years or more on your side...chasing performance may work for some but for most it does not...its all about you..ALLOCATION IS THE KEY..remember this...some investors prefer a total equity portfolio for its superior growth prospects..others invest exclusively in fixed-income instruments,preferring to completely avoid the risks of the stock market..BUT most people seem more comfortable somewhere in between those two extremes...you are the only one who can decide that....gl and know thyself.
pill..got your pm..dont know if i can help you as we seem to be diiferent types of investors...your vanguard is parked you know where and my vanguard is 80 stocks and 20% bonds..i hold only the global fund,the international growth fund,the wellington fund, and the total stk market...only 4 funds..as you can see i m a buy and hold kind of guy and am up 13.4% for the year at vg..i can get a better bang for my buck using funds rather than etf's..i m not a trader or timer and i feel thats the route you prefer as per your pm..if i were you i would maintain your allocation to the tsp and i would be at least 85% stocks at your age..but then again your risk tolerance and mine are different...we all have our own appetite for risk..as for your roth if it were mine and i was your age i would be 100% stocks and let it ride...probably 50 internationals and 50 % us...and set it and forget it...but thats just me..all mutual funds also with low expenses..but i bet you already knew that.agin its just your tolerance and appetite for risk but you have 30 years or more on your side...chasing performance may work for some but for most it does not...its all about you..ALLOCATION IS THE KEY..remember this...some investors prefer a total equity portfolio for its superior growth prospects..others invest exclusively in fixed-income instruments,preferring to completely avoid the risks of the stock market..BUT most people seem more comfortable somewhere in between those two extremes...you are the only one who can decide that....gl and know thyself.
Thanks Mr. R- I appreciate your response! I am leaning towards the buy and hold method over ETF's. I find this style of investing works best for me with my knowledge. Howevet ETF's are becomeing popular and seem like a way to make more than the buy and hold, however most do not in my opinion. I was hoping you might have some experience with EFT's. I do like you recommended allocation of 50 Internation and 50 US(large cap). I'll keep you posted on my returns. I just need to find an entry point now. Missing the summer drop was nice however its time to make some gains! Thanks again!
Mr recognizer
10-19-2007, 01:42 PM
the only thing i see different from an eft and stock is most nothing ...with an etf you have a basket and where as a stock is a stock..you trade them both the same way..commiss in...commiss out anytime of the day..mutual funds i pay no commiss in or out..but have to go in at close of business..etf's usually have a slightly lower expense than mutuals...i view etf's as trading material tho where as a mutual fund u usually hold it longer....dont get me wrong tho as i will drop a mutual fund in a heart beat if it starts mis behaving...i dont hold em all forever....also i think that roth of yours is the best thing going for u along with the 401k.....after being in 5 yrs withdrawals of principal are penalty free so u really dont need no taxable acct's at all..all just my opinion.looking at tracker tho u seem to be playing it just right for your allocations according to your age and u appear very aggressive..you seem well informed...gl
Well I got hit with a 4% loss the other day trying to bob and weave. Price to pay moving 100%. I have to laugh at myself as I think I have a plan and then I change oh so fast. I really wish I would have stayed diversified and just played with say 40%. That seems to work best for me. Say 20% in C S and I and move the other 40% as I see fit. I do see getting all the loses back within a few weeks. I am extremely optimistic and see the S fund leading the way through the holidays based on seasonal charts. I would be surprised to see the I fund beat the S in Nov. and Dec. So I plan to ride S and I through a majority of it and will be looking to enter the C fund early next year.
I still haven’t decided what to do with my ROTH IRA's at Vanguard. I have been in a money market every since the drop this summer (I missed it). I was considering starting ETF's however I think just putting it in mutual funds are best for me. I am looking at Energy, International and Large Caps.
As a not seasoned investor please follow at your own risk, and of course I am always open for suggestions! Good luck to every one.
Pill,
Depending on your strategy! If you move funds around, mutual funds will get mad at ya! Their prospectus discourages "trading"! On the other hand ETF's can be traded frequently. Just understand how ETF funds "settle" and "free rides".
A few other items: Check the Expense Ratio on mutuals, and understand the bid vs ask price on ETF's.
Spaf
Pill,
Depending on your strategy! If you move funds around, mutual funds will get mad at ya! Their prospectus discourages "trading"! On the other hand ETF's can be traded frequently. Just understand how ETF funds "settle" and "free rides".
A few other items: Check the Expense Ratio on mutuals, and understand the bid vs ask price on ETF's.
Spaf
Thanks Spaf, Well I am more of a buy and hold guy. However with this board and other services I have been drawn into making moves, trying to maxamize gains. I only plan to move my TSP account some what. With mutual funds I will buy and hold for a year at a time.
As of today I am moving 20C 30S 50I. I will most likely with go 50/50 S&I and hold until the end of the year. So yes this is my attempt to move more to buy and hold until the end of the year. We will see if I can hang.
If the fed drops rates on Tues. will the S or I benifit the most? and why?
kar_crazy
11-30-2007, 02:56 PM
hope you get to watch the sooners kicken butt
Congratulations to those of you who have a great return this year! Some of you have an excellent return for the way it’s be so up and down.
Me personally, I am not happy with my return. This is my worst year yet. Sitting at 5%, however I hope to achieve 10% by year end. Maybe wishful thinking, but I believe in miracles.
Currently sitting 50S and 50I. Some time I will start to shift more into the large caps. I plan to be heavier in the large caps next year.
Let the Rally begin!
Well it was very wishful thinking. I am still sitting at 5%. Worst year yet in TSP. So here are my returns for the year. In order of biggest account to least.
TSP 5% returns-I just got a step increase so I bumped it to 12% contributing.
Vanguard Roth IRA 7% return-I wasn't able to contribute a cent to my IRA's this year.
Wife's 401k Fidelity 11% return -wife gives 10%
2007 is gone. So it back to the drawing boards. Not so sure what I am going to do. With possible IFT limitations, paid services, and just following board members and my best guesses.
Thanks to Tom for the site, all the board members, and moderators. Welcome to all new members I look forward to growing with you. Congratulations to all who had great returns this year. Best of luck to us all in 2008.
I am in to deep to pull out at this point. However I changed my contribution allocation to 100% G. At this point its all I could do to preserve.
Well I hope I am not going to learning a hard lesson by riding this out. I have not been invested in any down turn so this is a new experience. I moved 5% of S Fund into the I fund today. Bargain prices were looking to good. I am also just going to Dollar Cost Average into my set allocation instead of having it go into safety. At this point the share prices are low, so I think I will be better off than waiting for an entry.
Is our economy really as bad as it looks? A part of me thinks it could get much worse. I would like to think we will recover soon, however my gut says this could carry on for years. I am still new at this and have only been investing for 5 years so I really dont know. Will remain optimistic!
budnipper1
01-24-2008, 06:09 AM
That little move showed a 9% daily return in the autotracker. That should make the Guinness book of records...if only it was true!:D
Well I hope I am not going to learning a hard lesson by riding this out. I have not been invested in any down turn so this is a new experience. I moved 5% of S Fund into the I fund today. Bargain prices were looking to good. I am also just going to Dollar Cost Average into my set allocation instead of having it go into safety. At this point the share prices are low, so I think I will be better off than waiting for an entry.
Is our economy really as bad as it looks? A part of me thinks it could get much worse. I would like to think we will recover soon, however my gut says this could carry on for years. I am still new at this and have only been investing for 5 years so I really dont know. Will remain optimistic!
Thanks budnipper1,
It was good to see some profit, even if it wasn't 9%. The late day reversal was nice. Sorry about your man Thompson but hopefully we will see a Republican in office. Good luck today!
Unsure of the market right now. I have managed to climb back to -3% so shooting for some capital preservation. IFT 20 G, 10 F, 15 C, 35 S, 20 I. Hopefully I will be in the positive soon. I think peeling alittle off and waiting for a drop with get me there.
Well hopefully this plays out. I pulled some to the side waiting for a few down days hoping to buy back in. So today I am deploying my 30% back into the I fund looking for a down day in the fund. This would be my second IFT for the month so I guess I will be staying put or transferring into the G fund which I don't plan on doing.
I had a error on the auto tracker this week. on 4/3 or 4/4 is says my return was -2% when it should have read a gain. I haven't been following too much to see if any other returns were incorrect. I have advised Ocean of the error.
I'm staying put.
My motto is you don't lose until you sell.
The market will rebound.
I don't mind if it continues to drop. I am buying at the lowest prices I have ever seen since being a federal employee. I bumped my contributions up 7% five months ago. I plan on riding it, however far it drops.
I don’t like the market but I am taking advantage it. Not the other way around!
Birchtree
01-15-2009, 11:59 AM
Finally, a member I can identify with. There is always a silver linning.
HappyGoLucky
01-15-2009, 12:01 PM
I am starting to think this way as well...might as well in this volatile market. It is very hard to predict, so just stay in and ride it back up. As much as it hurts my current balance to see $9 prices for C, it is an opportunity to indeed "buy low".
Learing from a Guru!
I wish every one well investing, however I kind like swimming upstream and keeping my emotions out of it. Stick to the plan, focus on the prize.
One way I know I am doing OK by being a buy and hold investor is what shares I have accumulated in the previous 5 years, I just doubled in one year by increasing my contributions during this down turn.
I just checked my 2nd quarterly statement from last year and it appears I will have completely doubled my shares in C, S, I. I'm a little under however I still have two months to go from the date I checked.
Gettem' while their low!!!
Medic72
04-24-2009, 06:16 PM
woohooo another one!
buy and hold buy and hold!
gonna let yall read my book of birchisms soon :)
(after i ok it with birch of course)
Birchtree
04-24-2009, 07:10 PM
Just remember that friends do let friends buy and hold. Keep throwing that good money down the dark stinky rabbit hole. Way to go. Accumulate is the name of the game.
WorkFE
04-24-2009, 07:12 PM
As long as there is no Bernie in that hole.
Bullitt
04-25-2009, 11:10 AM
One way I know I am doing OK by being a buy and hold investor is what shares I have accumulated in the previous 5 years, I just doubled in one year by increasing my contributions during this down turn.
You've got balls admitting that Mr. Pill. Not too many people believe in the buy and hold strategy these days. I'm not saying that's a bad thing either.
FUTURESTRADER
04-25-2009, 09:22 PM
isn't this 'more shares' thing kinda like sayin ' I had 10 100 dollar bills ($1,000), but now I have 5 times more(50) 10 dollar bills ($500)' ??
With the current shares prices that is correct, sir. But we all know what the market does after a bear market. It goes up and up and before you know it we are at a new market high! So this means my account will have not only doubled but will be even greater because I have been buying all the way up just like I did all the way down.
The fact that I have been collecting share prices below what they were when I started as a civilian in 2003 makes me very happy.
Of course this isn't a sweet scenario for someone who is looking to retire in the next few years.
I don't know how to compare DCA(dollar cost average) vs. 2IFT's(2 inter-fund transfers)buy low sell high folks but I am pretty certain my method will hands down win over say a 30 year career. (With exception to pro’s (Ebb, Trader Fred) But to the average federal civilian I feel I would win. It’s up for debate but this is my chosen method at the time as long as I keep my emotions out of it and stick to the plan. I believe DCA is safer and more productive!
I hope every ones plan works in there favor! Now lets make some money$
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/07/DCAvsVA.asp
Birchtree
04-26-2009, 12:23 PM
I must tell you that I dollar cost averaged my way into our last bottom in November to the tune of $500K or more making 432 individual stock purchases. Those were generational low prices and I went for the chalice. In the last seven weeks counting week #7 as a correction week I've made $363K - and I've never made green like that. And I suspect the next six weeks will be just as rewarding. And soon I'll be buying all the way back up. Those unfortunate fools that cut and ran while we were placing the bottom are now being punished - they have no assets working for them. It's a lot like sitting on the ice pack in the G fund - your butt might be comfortable but it ain't making no money.
FUTURESTRADER
04-26-2009, 07:58 PM
Tried and true performance measure is annual percentage return on principal. Anything else is smoke, mirrors, and noise.
Birchtree
04-26-2009, 08:03 PM
Eight more months my friend will tell the story.
FUTURESTRADER
04-26-2009, 08:23 PM
Eight more months my friend will tell the story.
Obviously, a good chance you will do well this year, but what will your two year performance be?
Birchtree
04-26-2009, 08:31 PM
I have yet to lock a loss so it's hard to tell - riding the old come back trail again only with more DCA shares to lift my spirits. So the inter year swings don't really bother me - it's the constant accumulation of shares that keeps me honest. I do believe now that the trend may be changing that I'll be ready for a little swing trading. You won't mind if I follow your lead you handsome guy - but you got to get off the ice block first.
It feels good to be green again! 10%
I can't wait to see my account balance when we reach the highs again. I don't really have a prediction when that might happen however as history proves it will(could be extremely fast or even take years). I will be buying all the way up! Even down if the market so chooses.
We may get a small pull back but I don't believe it will be more than 10%. So I should remain in green for the rest of the year.
Boghie
06-01-2009, 09:48 PM
It feels good to be green again! 10%
I can't wait to see my account balance when we reach the highs again. I don't really have a prediction when that might happen however as history proves it will(could be extremely fast or even take years). I will be buying all the way up! Even down if the market so chooses.
We may get a small pull back but I don't believe it will be more than 10%. So I should remain in green for the rest of the year.
Glad to see you active again. You are one of the folks I picked to watch last year. Not too many trades, and those trades seemed sensible.
Anyway, what does Birch mean by 'swing trades'???
Boghie-
Swing trades are normally short term trades of in and out, within say 5-10 day period. It’s now pretty hard to do in our tsp accounts as you can only do it once a month, but technically I guess you could call it a swing trade.
I learned a few things last year and although some of my moves paid off, some did not. Personally I still may make some moves for an extra gain, but I believe there is more of a risk in doing so. I am certain for me, that if I stayed put for 10 years on one account and the other made some moves, my staying put account would win hands down.
Sticking to the plan is always hard! Good luck this year.
Boghie
06-02-2009, 12:37 PM
Boghie-
Swing trades are normally short term trades of in and out, within say 5-10 day period. It’s now pretty hard to do in our tsp accounts as you can only do it once a month, but technically I guess you could call it a swing trade.
I learned a few things last year and although some of my moves paid off, some did not. Personally I still may make some moves for an extra gain, but I believe there is more of a risk in doing so. I am certain for me, that if I stayed put for 10 years on one account and the other made some moves, my staying put account would win hands down.
Sticking to the plan is always hard! Good luck this year.
Thanks Pill,
I don't know if absolutely 'staying pat' is the best strategy. A proper asset allocation is probably the most important long term strategy there is. Especially if the allocation is properly maintained. For example, the past 18 months would overbalance holdings to cash and bonds. However, rebalancing montly via one IFT would have gained you shares in the stock funds that will be quite juicy on recovery.
However, I think three allocations might be better.
:)The Good,
:(the Bad,
:mad:and the Ugly.
Saved my bullocks last year. Probably made too many trades myself thinking I could time the market. I was kinda in the market (Bad) when it collapsed. Got out, but my -5% for the year went to -14% in a heartbeat. Still only lost 20%. Yea!!!
Well I am staying put! Or like what I love to say at the table- I'm All In!
I appreciate everyone’s knowledge, I love reading and following along. However, I have too long to go to be protecting any gains.
Rain or shine!
Bullitt
07-24-2009, 07:31 AM
Birch might challenge you to a game of who can hold on longer.
Boghie
09-29-2009, 07:18 PM
Pill,
Congrats, you broke into the 9 I backfield. There are actually only 7 I's now. I don't know where the other one went.
Again, congrats.
kar_crazy
10-15-2009, 07:05 AM
pull out your sooner flag and fly it proudly this weekend Phil , even if they end up kicking our behinds:blink:
My Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the 12 months ending 11/30/2009 is 36.83%.
Not bad for not a single trade.
However, I did take a hit when the market plunged, but I increase my contributions by 7% during the plunge so it worked out nicely for me. And I will do it again if given the oppertunity. I can contribute about $190 a paycheck before I max out at $16,500.
Bring on the Santa Rally!
Handballer
12-16-2009, 02:30 PM
My Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the 12 months ending 11/30/2009 is 36.83%.
Not bad for not a single trade.
However, I did take a hit when the market plunged, but I increase my contributions by 7% during the plunge so it worked out nicely for me. And I will do it again if given the oppertunity. I can contribute about $190 a paycheck before I max out at $16,500.
Bring on the Santa Rally!
Not bad at all. But you are only about 30% more than me. Since I retired I can't contribute any more. I hope to finish the year up 7%, more will be appreciated. I'm ready for the rally too!
Bullitt
12-16-2009, 06:01 PM
Nice work maxing out TSP, your experience should be a lesson to newbies who think they are going to find (or think they've already found) the holy grail to investing. A friend of mine told me today actually that he's less than 10% below his all time high with a DCA approach.
I used to max out TSP, but I contribute to a Roth IRA now.
Thanks Bullitt, I felt I started my federal service and investing late in life (28). So I felt I needed to really get busy. 34 now. It’s never too early to start, and just because you don't make allot doesn't mean you can't contribute more. I'm a GS7! You have to learn to keep your debt low (pay it off) and manage your money. It sounds simple enough, but learning takes experience. And I'm still learning. My past would blow people away, so any one can do it!
For the past year I have been wondering if I should contribute less to max out my ROTH IRA. Currently I contrib 2k to the ROTH. I want to max it out however I have some debt I am trying to knock out.
Any one, please chime in. Should I/WE be maxing out our ROTH IRA first then TSP? I would love others thoughts on this. Hearing pro’s and con’s of others really helps motivates me to action.
KevinD
12-17-2009, 05:50 AM
Do you get the match on TSP? If I had it to do again I'd get the matching 5% and then max out the Roth and then come back to TSP with any more I could contribute.
Yes, I get it the match. Thanks for the input.
Boghie
12-18-2009, 12:02 PM
Pill,
Invest in TSP at least to the match.
If you are in the 15% tax bracket then max out a Roth IRA. If you are in a higher bracket the decision is harder.
The nice thing about retiring with some assets in tax deferred accounts and some in a Roth is that you can choose which account to take retirement funds from. If we are in a low tax environment take assets from your TSP account, if in a high tax environment take from the Roth assets.
Now that I think of it, if your tax rate jumps for any reason move more contributions to TSP, if your tax rate shrinks move more to the Roth.
Kinda like a DCA.
And, you get to tell the politicians that you can adjust and overcome...
By the way, I am picking you in my Quinnella for taking this years TSP Cup. I think an asset allocator will take the prize:)
Bullitt
12-18-2009, 05:07 PM
Good advice Boghie. I have to sit down and think this out. For me, and I think you guys would agree:
1. Contributing to TSP is simple.
2. IFT's for us asset allocators is also simple. Just put down the % in each fund and boom, you're diversified and allocated. Try re-balancing a portfolio outside of TSP filled with ETF's. What a nightmare.
I do tend to do more 'market timing' in the Roth IRA since I don't have to worry about taxes with it's infinite investment options. Finally, I just don't see the Roth IRA staying completely tax free in 2037 when I'm eligible to begin drawing from it.
Thanks Boghie!
Another angle I wasn't looking at, thanks for your input.
I just can't say enough about his site. Tom and board members Merry Christmas!
I think I am going to make the change this year. I plan to max out my ROTH IRA (Vanguard) and just ease back on my TSP a little. I eventually want to max both ROTH and TSP. Right now I can't afford both due to a recent move to please the Mrs. by moving by family.
I just saved 3k (usual minimum for Vanguard) for junior’s college, now what? I am not sure how to invest it. A few options but I’m just not sold yet. Open to suggestions…
So I just logged into TSP to see when my contribution went in, and I noticed that one went through on 5/12(Wednesday) however on this payday I get screwed as it went through 5/27(Thursday) after a big day of gains.
Has any one else noticed this? Is there an answer why?
Thanks.
KevinD
05-28-2010, 06:20 AM
I noticed that mine usually hit on Wednesday night and would be there on Thursday morning but recently it hasn't shown up till Friday morning. I thought I was losing my mind. I have no idea why.
eccougar
05-28-2010, 06:59 AM
Use to get the Wed. close but last couple months, getting the Thurs. close.
Boghie
05-28-2010, 09:12 AM
Pill,
Did you change banks? I get my IFT contributions settled one day before documented pay day (Fridays). Thus, Thursday nights prices are used for purchase. Learned that the hard way via Quicken. Took a long time to figure it out.
But, two days in advance? That is odd.
My wife gets access to her salary earlier than I do. I think the money flows into cash holding accounts and the bank migrates it into your account from that. So, her credit union moves it into her account before my bank moves mine. Maybe the same for TSP?
Mcqlives
05-28-2010, 09:17 AM
It also depends on what day your payroll is processed.
Examples: If my admin staff processes early (like last week because of the holiday weekend next to the pay dates) we submitted payroll on Thursday before noon eastern. My money went in on Wed.
The payroll before that we did not submit payroll till Monday morning after the pay period was over and the money did not him my account till the following Monday.
Normally we submit payroll on Friday and money goes in on Thursday.
[QUOTE=Boghie;273885]Pill,
Did you change banks? QUOTE]
No, nothing has changed. I will try to check next payday and see what it does. Two bad it only shows you the last two deposits on TSP website. Maybe the new site will show you more.
nasa1974
05-28-2010, 04:29 PM
My TSP deposit posts on Thursday.
I only brought it up because after a huge day I wanted to see when I bought in and looking at the Most Recent Transactions it showed the first deposit of the month being on Wednesday 5/12 but on this instance it was Thursday 5/27 after the run up. Here was the share price difference.
12.7591 C 17.0298 S 15.6852 I Fund
13.1834 C 17.7446 S 16.4510 I Fund
.42 gain .72 .77 gain
It would have been nice to have gotten lucky and made the gains. So I would assume it all depends on how fast the computer processes the payments. Since I can only see the last two deposits it's hard to gauge how many times it has gone through on a Wednesday. I could have $300 plus on the day, only to lose some of the missed gains on the next day. Maybe next time it will work in my favor!
-Update on what day my contribution goes into my account.
Last week my tsp contibution went into my account on Wednesday again. But earlier in the month it was on Thursday.
PessOptimist
06-27-2010, 03:58 PM
I have noticed this occasionally. This month it was on the 1st (tuesday) and the 14th (monday which is usual).
I have not tried to find a pattern to see if it has something to do with the end of the month or is some vast conspiracy. :suspicious:
Does any one know what percent the last 5-10 years of salary increase has been?
When running numbers and retirement estimates I think using 3% as an estimate of annual increase is a bit inflated giving the last few years. However I can not find the history of increases.
Thanks in advance.
SWAVET
09-17-2010, 09:28 AM
According to OPM (http://www.opm.gov/oca/05tables/index.asp (http://www.opm.gov/oca/05tables/index.asp)) the following are the salary increase for GS level without the locality pay:
2010: 1.5%
2009: 2.9%
2008: 2.50%
2007: 1.70%
2006: 2.10%
2005: 2.5%
However, retirement increase based on COLA and History of Annual COLA Rates (https://www.mosers.org/en/MOSERS-News-Archive/2009/~/media/Files/Adobe_PDF/News/2009-News/cola_rates_history.ashx) show the average from 1992 to 2009 is 4%
Boghie
09-17-2010, 09:36 AM
Pill,
Its been tough. Annual inflation is 3.1%. SWAVET's 4% seems good to go because I have heard that average wage inflation exceeds price inflation - that is one of the problem with Social Security.
Anyway, tools like Quicken just subtract inflation from return to get their inflation adjusted numbers. The goal should be to pop a certain number of points above inflation and kinda ignore the actual number.
If you are retiring soon (this year) I would use 1.5%. Anything greater I would use the real number.
By the way, I started frequenting this site because of your activity. We have/had a similar investing philosophy. It would be nice to hear more from you...
LateR
Does any one know what percent the last 5-10 years of salary increase has been?
When running numbers and retirement estimates I think using 3% as an estimate of annual increase is a bit inflated giving the last few years. However I can not find the history of increases.
Thanks in advance.
Thanks, just what I was looking for!
According to OPM (http://www.opm.gov/oca/05tables/index.asp (http://www.opm.gov/oca/05tables/index.asp)) the following are the salary increase for GS level without the locality pay:
2010: 1.5%
2009: 2.9%
2008: 2.50%
2007: 1.70%
2006: 2.10%
2005: 2.5%
However, retirement increase based on COLA and History of Annual COLA Rates (https://www.mosers.org/en/MOSERS-News-Archive/2009/~/media/Files/Adobe_PDF/News/2009-News/cola_rates_history.ashx) show the average from 1992 to 2009 is 4%
Boghie,
Thanks for the response! I'm not near retirement yet. I have 15 left at the earliest. This is the first time I have been through anything like this. I don't have a clue about what is going on, and if you follow the bears or media it’s all doom and gloom. One thing I do know is I am securing excellent prices on the funds, and I plan to keep doing it rain or shine(all the way down and all the way up). Every once in a while the media gets to me and all I need is shot of Birchtree and then I am back on track.
So with the way the market is I don't have much to say. Just listening and learning as much a possible. I like to keep it simple, buying up and down, trying to max out both TSP and ROTH, but haven't quit got there yet. Hoping the dream the is there when I get there!
Good luck and thanks for all your input on the board.
Boghie
09-18-2010, 09:22 AM
Re(1): InflationData.com (http://inflationdata.com/inflation/)
Pill, and others interested in the inflation rate...
Here is a tremendous site (http://inflationdata.com/inflation/inflation_rate/CurrentInflation.asp) for studying inflation. For those who don't like to crack the books - or did so years ago like me (and didn't really enjoy it) - the site pointed to is a YOY inflation chart by month for the past ten years.
The chap is working on the site a bit. The format changed for the better. However, the month headers aren't showing up. They start from January over the top.
Poking around is kinda cool. YTOD we have had a 0.75% inflation rate. (http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Calculators/Inflation_Rate_Calculator.asp#calcresults) To me - and probably Bullitt - that's lookin' a lot like Deflation (sung to the tune of 'Its starting to look a lot like Christmas'). Kinda interesting that the gubmint doesn't publicize that number, eh...
Note: Tom, the inflation chart linked above might be worth a link somewhere if folks have made requests for inflation data.
Birchtree
09-18-2010, 09:52 AM
Pill,
Unfortunately the days of wine and roses are over. By that I mean people interested in accumulating shares via dollar cost averaging will never see the $8, $9, $10, $11, $12 prices again. From this point going forward it will take more money to collect the same amount of shares. I actually prolonged my retirement by an extra year so that I could benefit from so many golden prices in 2009. Now it's time to ride the bull and see how far and how long the ride will last. You still have the opportunity to accumulate shares back to the previous highs - so not all is lost. I think the 07 peak on the C fund was $17.54.
Boghie
09-18-2010, 10:07 AM
Birch,
Pill chewed that fat like you and I over the downturn. He has only been buying equities if an earlier post is still in affect.
Many a tasty meal over the past couple/three years.
I've increased my contributions in the teeth of this thing and contribute 40% in C, 30% in S, and 30% in I. I think Pill is doing the same.
He/She didn't miss a thing:)
Yummy
Pill,
Unfortunately the days of wine and roses are over. By that I mean people interested in accumulating shares via dollar cost averaging will never see the $8, $9, $10, $11, $12 prices again. From this point going forward it will take more money to collect the same amount of shares. I actually prolonged my retirement by an extra year so that I could benefit from so many golden prices in 2009. Now it's time to ride the bull and see how far and how long the ride will last. You still have the opportunity to accumulate shares back to the previous highs - so not all is lost. I think the 07 peak on the C fund was $17.54.
You got that right! I am enjoying that 7% I increased into my TSP during the down turn. And I will do it again next time it drops if I am not already maxed out.
I'm still sitting 50% I, 35% S, and 15% C. However, I need to shift my S and C fund soon.
I mainly decided to post today to share I increased my contributions up to 22%. Not to brag but to encourage others to look at what they contribute. Below is an email I got at work and decided to make the increase.
Birch- Thanks for this golden nugget! "I actually prolonged my retirement by an extra year so that I could benefit from so many golden prices in 2009." I hope to do the same if there is a major down turn going on during my final days in the work force.
Date: 14 January 2011
From: DON Benefits Officer
To: All Civilian Employees
Subj: TSP Savings Opportunity
1. The ''Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010'' provides that during 2011, but only in 2011, the Social Security tax rate paid by employees will be temporarily decreased from 6.2% to 4.2%. As a result, Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS) Offset and Federal Employees Retirement System (FERS) employees will see their Social Security withholdings decreased by 2%. The change in deductions will be reflected on the Leave and Earnings Statement under "Deductions" as "OASDI". Since CSRS employees do not pay Social Security, this change does not affect them.
2. This is a great opportunity for FERS and CSRS Offset employees to boost retirement savings. Think about saving the 2% in your Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) account. This could have a significant impact on amounts available for retirement, especially for younger workers who will earn a compounded return on the amount for decades. This action will also lower your federal and state income tax in 2011 as the contribution will be tax-deferred. The Social Security tax reduction is a TSP opportunity.
3. You can increase your TSP contributions electronically using the Employee Benefits Information System (EBIS) available at http://www.donhr.navy.mil/. Under the Benefits tab click on "EBIS".
4. If you have questions about TSP, call the Benefits Line at 888-320-2917 and select menu option #4 to talk to a Customer Service Representative (CSR). CSRs are available 7:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m., Eastern Time, Monday through Friday, except on federal holidays. The TTY number for the deaf and hard of hearing is 866-328-9889.
Never mind. Will post my results of what I was looking for later.
Wanted to share my accomplishment. My TSP account just hit $100,006. :) It’s been a long 7 years getting here. But thanks to this board and the many on here, THANK YOU! Especially you Tom.
I am sitting 45 S and 55 I fund. With 100% going into the I fund.
Currently contributing 22% of my pay to TSP.
KneednDough
02-19-2012, 05:43 PM
NICE. I have half what you have and have 8 years in. CONGRATS!!!
nasa1974
02-19-2012, 06:04 PM
Now that you have hit 6 figures you can accumulate wealth a little faster. But remember your RISK also increases. Congratulations.
NICE. I have half what you have and have 8 years in. CONGRATS!!!
I had some good advice from my Dad (retired fed employee). He said to contribute as much as possible and always look for ways to increase it. (meaning step and grade increases, and annual raise if we ever get back to those)
I haven't hit the $17,500 max yet but it’s my goal.
Hang in there and good luck to you!
Now that you have hit 6 figures you can accumulate wealth a little faster. But remember your RISK also increases. Congratulations.
Thanks Nasa, I appreciate all your posts..
Boghie
02-20-2012, 09:49 AM
Pill,
Along with more 'risk', you also have to learn to deal with the 'law of large numbers'. Remember, a 2% decline is now $2,000. Yowser. You will just have to get used to it. Losing over a week of pay in a day - or a few moments:p. Look at ratios and percentages. Otherwise you might end up in a brain freeze.
By the way, you've got one of the riskiest alloctions I have ever seen. Risk cuts both ways. It is basically a modified standard deviation. Quicken (using stats from 1957 onward) figures a normal annual return with your allocation is between -5% through +21%. Quite a swing. But you are looking very good.
Good to hear from you.
Pill,
Along with more 'risk', you also have to learn to deal with the 'law of large numbers'. Remember, a 2% decline is now $2,000. Yowser. You will just have to get used to it. Losing over a week of pay in a day - or a few moments:p. Look at ratios and percentages. Otherwise you might end up in a brain freeze.
By the way, you've got one of the riskiest alloctions I have ever seen. Risk cuts both ways. It is basically a modified standard deviation. Quicken (using stats from 1957 onward) figures a normal annual return with your allocation is between -5% through +21%. Quite a swing. But you are looking very good.
Good to hear from you.
Boghie- Good to hear from you. I'm still following everyone's comments although I haven't been posting much. The huge down turn taught me I don't know what I'm talking about. However I have picked up some golden nuggets along the way. Like to you don't lose until you sell, and share accumulation works. I got caught in the I Fund during the down turn so I decided to throw more at it until it rebounds. I think it will work. And if it does I will try the same strategy again (not just the I fund, any). Other than my situation I would like to be sitting 50% C, 30% S and 20% I Fund. I'm not sure what the future has in store but I would like to adjust my allocation once the I Fund hits 20% or so. But it might not get there any time soon.
Made an IFT today going 50 S and 50 I. I also finally shifted from contributing 100% to the I fund to match my position of 50 S and 50 I.
I have also reduced my TSP down from 22% to 10%, and am putting the max into my Roth IRA at Vanguard. Once I get the amount adjusted right I will probably increase my percentage into TSP. Or pay down debt with any left over.
I wasn't sure if maxing the ROTH IRA (currently I have 25K) would be better than maxing TSP (115k). I am age 37, and special category so I can retire at as early as 50 which is only 13 years away. Obviously the larger amount will grow faster, so I was a little torn on what to do. I do feel like throwing every thing at TSP would be better, but smarter people than I say use the ROTH. Any thoughts?
But anyways I went ahead and did it since every thing I read says, contribute to get the match, max the Roth IRA, then go back to contribute as much as you can up the max of $17,000.
Here are my past returns. Just thought I'd share and thank Tom for the site. I've learned allot over the years. Thanks everyone!
TSP RETURNS 2003-2012
2003 Started end of year but ended in the green
2004 17%
2005 12%
2006 17.72%
2007 4.77%
2008 -38.34%
2009 31.24%
2010 16.83%
2011 6.04%
2012 18.53%
So I'm still 50 S and 50 I Fund. I'll be maxing out my ROTH IRA this year at Vanguard and I just bumped my TSP % back up to 20%.
So Cheers to another green year!
nnuut
01-04-2013, 09:56 AM
Great returns Pill, WOW!
Error-Correction on my 2011 return it is suppose to be -7.22%.
I've stayed in both up and down and have no regrets. Loving the market right now. Even with BambyCare in the news. I haven't posted much because I have realized I don't really know as much as I think I do, and the down markets taught me that.
Right now be in to win, down market I feel the same. But any one can preach in a great market.
Cheers every one!
nnuut
07-18-2013, 06:58 PM
The market takes no prisoners, don't feel bad he has been beating me to death.
This week I passed a huge millstone for myself. Now I can use the word million associated to my accounts. Although its only .25 mil. Thanks TSP Talk.
I've only been investing for 10 years and started with nothing. Simple DCA works, save more than you think you need. Its better to back off savings later than realize later you didn't save enough.
401k
TSP
Roth IRA
Cactus
10-19-2013, 09:30 PM
Wow, Pill, that is good!!! Keep it up. I started in 1988 and peeked @ 196 k in Nov 2007. I just closed above that again this Friday. A new all time high for Cactus. That's my milestone. Now onward to 0.2 mil. :D
My story is I was too conservative early on -- in the G Fund until 2000. Then into equities for the dot com bust. Another thing that held me back in the early days was that our contributions were maxed at 10% instead of the IRS limit like now. I could have put a lot more money in back then before I got married. Now it's a different story.
Put as much in as early as you can. That's my motto. You have to have money in there to make money. :cool:
jpcavin
10-23-2013, 10:17 AM
This week I passed a huge millstone for myself. Now I can use the word million associated to my accounts. Although its only .25 mil. Thanks TSP Talk.
I've only been investing for 10 years and started with nothing. Simple DCA works, save more than you think you need. Its better to back off savings later than realize later you didn't save enough.
401k
TSP
Roth IRA
Welcome to the millionaires club. I think I am at .02 mil :D
Yeah, .26 now! The results of increasing contributions when the market tanked is paying off(and DCA). I would hate to lose 40% again but if I did I would buckle down and increase my contributions to the max. I'm not maxed at $17,500, so I could throw more at a sinking ship. Because like the sun, the markets will hit news highs again and again.
Be in to Win. Thanks Birch.
I made an IFT today and changed my contributions to reflect. It has been about two years.
I have been wanting to shift more into the C fund for some time. So after seeing the vote on the main page that the C fund would out perform the other funds in the 4th quarter I decided now was a good time to do so. I only moved some for now but will be looking to increase my position to at least 60% soon.
Current allocation 30% C, 40% S, and 30% I Fund.
Old position, 50/50 S and I Fund.
PIP for last 12 months was 19.43%
TSP 15%
Roth IRA Max
529 account new
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