Transfer 5/25 for 5/26/04

[tsptalk]

I'm making a move this morning, getting out of the I fund for a while. My new allocation, which will be effective Wednesday 5/26 will be:

25% G, 35% C, and 40% S fund. See today'smarket comments (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive/comments_5_25_04.html)for details.

Tom

[tsptalk]

So far today, the dollar is pretty weak. Maybe I (we) will get lucky and have a nice day in the I fund today beforebeing out tomorrow.

[Rolo]

Amen to that! I bailed out of I last night (Monday night), so the transfer should be at Tuesday's closing prices and show on my TSP balanceWednesday morning, correct?

Mister Duke seems to be the contrarian, hehehe.

[tsptalk]

so the transfer should be at Tuesday's closing prices and show on my TSP balance Wednesday morning, correct?
That's what I believe to be true. Others seem to think it is not happpening that quickly. Maybe we oughtto checkit and report back here. I made my transfer this morning so I will post herewhen it shows as effective.

You guys will probably say I told you so, but I'm sticking around just a little bit longer...call it crazy, I'm still looking for that big push before I get cool on the I. Hopefully since you guys are bailing, you will get a big bounce today. Take care.

[tsptalk]

I'm sticking around just a little bit longer...call it crazy
That's far from crazy rr. It's actually more like, wellnormal.

I'm sure I'm considered the crazy one. I just hope it's crazy like a fox, but that remains to be seen. :D

Good luck!
Tom

[tsptalk]

The market is really climbing that wall of worry today. Can we get a decent gain to hold for once?

Amen to that. Not like some NBA teams which can't hold on to a 4th quarter lead....gee whiz. Lets go market ..lets gomarket.....

[Rolo]

DE-FENSE! DE-FENSE!

hehe

We're all crazy. I just want to be wealthy enough to be considered "eccentric".

[tsptalk]

It's smart money hour. This is a big tell for the intermediate term. Another failed rally will be demoralizing for the market. We still need more volume.If the rally holds, bears will get nervous and have to cover shorts, thenthe volume should pick up.

[tsptalk]

Very nice day but we are getting quite oversold.

Either we got very lucky with the I fund today (our last day in the fund) or I am very wrong about the dollar. The dollar appears to have been downsharply vs. the euro and pound today. That could mean a 2% plus day for the I fund. That is eitherthe last push downfor the short term declining dollar, or perhaps the dollar will break the upward trend and start back down. For our sake I hope it's the former.

Sorry, I know this is confusing.Basically a rising dollarisnot good for the I fund and a falling dollar is. My belief is thattoday's drop was a last push down and it should rise again soon meaning the I fund may be held back. Todaythe I fund did well. Tomorrow I will be out of the I fund completely. This is a bet that the dollar will rise in the coming days or weeks, and that we are better off in the U.S. markets for a little while.

Hope this make sense.
Tom

[Rolo]

I'm with ya, Tom!

However it works out, I am happy that I went with what seemed like the best idea at the time. Keep the news and analyses comin'! I would have completely overlooked the dollar thing until it was too late.

Since we have to bet, one has to ask one's self, "Will the dollar be stronger, or weaker, 1, 2, 6 months from now?"

Plus, I still have my Asian technology fund, so my portfolio is not totally isolated. I'll be keeping a closer eye on it now, though.

[Rolo]

Ok, my balances still show pre-transfer today (transfer request last night), which the display will be updated tomorrow, 6 a.m.

And, when I go to "request a transfer", it no longer shows that I have a pending transfer, so it must have processed.

[tsptalk]

That has been my experience.

[Rolo]

Oh, cool! I just got the e-mail confirmation...has the before and after shares and $ amounts.

I would like to suggest to them that they include the delta in the e-mail so I don't have to use a calculator every time to update Quicken.

Hey, how about them Lakers...err I mean how about the market yesterday...pretty good stuff all across the EQUITY board- C-S-I. I'm glad you guys were able to cash out of the I on a positive note. I 'm still hanging around trying to get the last gleanings..so far it looks the dollar is still pretty weak....and the foreign markets (Japan and China did alright), and the UK looks good too. I think I may pull back a little from C, S, and I today, and stash a little back in the home G court. Don't know yet what percentage.

[Monique]

Hey Tom.... I have approximately 20% G, 11% F, 45% C, 15% S and 8% I

Do you have any advice for a move for today? I was thinking moving I to G? What about the F??? I haven't made any moves in a very long time. Over a year. Usually I move and never look back.

Thanks, Monique

[tsptalk]

Hi Monique,

Since everyone's situation is different, I try not to tell people what to do, I just tell everyone what I am doing. You can see what Iam doing on(http://www.tsptalk.com/allocation.html (http://www.tsptalk.com/allocation.html)). My longer term (http://www.tsptalk.com/longer_term.html)comments give some other suggestions based on risk tolerance. Basically it says if you don't transfer very often you might want toget more aggressive in stocks (unless you are getting ready to retire in a couple of years). Hopefully that can help you make a decision.

Hope that helps,
Tom

[Rolo]

Note the exit from F. :X :D

[tsptalk]

I saw the EAFE index was up almost 1% this morning :shock:. It gave mea bit of a queazy feeling. But then I saw the EFA quote (which is the EAFE index withconsideration given to what the dollar is doing) and it was down slightly.Shew! I feel better.

[oneyoungbuck]

I went 100% G on Monday so I missed the rally yesterday, Damn! But I look good so far today. My question is this, Do you, in your opinion, feel someone at my age, 35, should be moving my funds so much?

[smine]

I left 15% in I and even a small amount in F. Apparently bonds and international are holding their own despite terriorist concerns. Tom, have you seen

cbsmarketwatch.com

I found it while looking around for more international news. You'd be interested to read Do seasonality-timing systems work as well for stock markets around the world as they do in the United States?

[tsptalk]

I went 100% G on Monday so I missed the rally yesterday, Damn! But I look good so far today. My question is this, Do you, in your opinion, feel someone at my age, 35, should be moving my funds so much?

oyb -
I don't recommend moving in and out of funds to everyone. I follow this stuff pretty closely because I enjoy it. If someone doesn't really like to keep on top of the marketthey would probably be better off picking an allocation and letting it ride.

How aggressive or conservative you get depends on your comfort level and your current situation. Hopefully in the long run, my compounded return willbeat the averages ofsomeone who just buys and holds, makingit a worthwhile endeavor.

I'm curious why you went 100% G Monday. Was there a specific reason, i.e.: just a hunch, got nervous,something you read,etc.?

Thanks!
Tom

[tsptalk]

smine wrote:
Tom, have you seen

cbsmarketwatch.com

I found it while looking around for more international news. You'd be interested to read Do seasonality-timing systems work as well for stock markets around the world as they do in the United States?

Thanks smine. I've heard aboutthat. It would be a good strategy for someone who doesn't want to make many moves. Once in the fall, and once in the spring. Here's the article (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B6570009D%2D13F8%2D43A5%2DAEC6%2D F3854D67A7B2%7D&siteid=mktw)for anyone else interested.

[oneyoungbuck]

The market was down Monday, there was another bombing in Iraq, there were a few price indexes coming out this week, I get the impression that makes the market nervous, and mostly it was a hunch. That is because I am very interested in watching my money like yourself. If I dont have to lose any of it then I should do the best I can to make more of it. Your site has opened a whole new world to me. I never thought I would like to watch the stock market on a daily basis. I also understand that you cant win every day, just do the best you can and educate yourself. Your site has done that for me.

[tsptalk]

Thanks buck. I have also learned a lot since I started the site. We really needed a site like this to share ideas.

[Rolo]

tsptalk wrote:
smine wrote:
Tom, have you seen

cbsmarketwatch.com

I found it while looking around for more international news. You'd be interested to read Do seasonality-timing systems work as well for stock markets around the world as they do in the United States?

Thanks smine. I've heard aboutthat. It would be a good strategy for someone who doesn't want to make many moves. Once in the fall, and once in the spring. Here's the article for anyone else interested.

linkie no workie

[tsptalk]

Boy, it's hard to please everyone :D. It should work now. (article (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B6570009D%2D13F8%2D43A5%2DAEC6%2D F3854D67A7B2%7D&siteid=mktw))

[Rolo]

hehe, That is interesting, thanks. The risk factor nearly halved. Wow.

So shall we more likely expect a drop/pullback in early June as a result of that? Will having read that alter anyone's thinking?

[tsptalk]

In regard to the Halloween indicator, I think it could be a good guide for buy and holders. But if you look at it on a year by year basis rather than as a whole you will see that you could have missed some nice rallies or been in some big pullbacks. I still think that those of us who keep a close eye on things can go by what is happening whilekeeping that infoin the back of your mind when you make decisions.

I have been burned a few times this year already going by seasonal data, although the last couple have worked out OK.


So shall we more likely expect a drop/pullback in early June as a result of that?
:% I thought it was saying what I was saying, that the early part of the month was usually stronger than average. Why do you say a pullback in early June? Do you mean after the first few days?

[Rolo]

Yes, to clarify: after the end-of-the-month swell (last few days in may + first few days in June)--much like the Dec/Jan swell, only not as huge.

--> http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/view_topic.php?id=228&forum_id=10&jump_to=1824

[tsptalk]

Yes, then I'd agree. If we dorally through the first week in June, lightening up to 60 - 75% stocks may be the play.

Thanks!

[tsptalk]

tsptalk wrote:
I saw the EAFE index was up almost 1% this morning :shock:. It gave mea bit of a queazy feeling. But then I saw the EFA quote (which is the EAFE index withconsideration given to what the dollar is doing) and it was down slightly.Shew! I feel better.
The I fund was down .02 today but I don't know exactly why. Not that I'm complaining since I was out of the fund, but the EAFE appeared to be up and the dollar was down slightly against the pound and euro. The only thing I can think of is this...

Since these EAFE index managershave to do a little "guessing" (click here for more info on that (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum14/93.html)) when it comes to their quote because of the overnight trading, they may have overestimated yesterday'sAsian and Australian gains for last night. Today they may have had to readjust a bit.

Just a guess.
Tom

[Monique]

I made a move with my funds today (before noon) and they said it will take 2 days to go in effect. I guess I will have to wait and see what happens!

[tsptalk]

If you did it before noon eastern time Wednesday, it will be effective Thursday. I believe they say something like "It can take up to 2 business days" but you should be good in the morning since you met the deadline.

Now we just need the market to cooperate. :shock:

[Mr. Duke]

Tom,

http://www.msci.com showed a 12.374 cent gained for the "I" today (.95% gain) pretty jacked up to show a two cents loss... EFA ticker symbol that should follow the fund did infact show a .18% loss.......Sounds to me like there are still crooks on Wall Street.

[tsptalk]

Mr. Duke wrote:
Tom,

http://www.msci.com showed a 12.374 cent gained for the "I" today (.95% gain) pretty jacked up to show a two cents loss...avenues for complaints/questions?

No. I think it is a readjustment of yesterday's overestimated quote. msci.com showed .21% gain yesterday and we got a 1.33% gain.

[Mr. Duke]

Tom,

I see your on...good ...I saw your initial comments.....understand but still believe is BS...anyway ...life goes on...Been busy fixin a vehicle and dealing with a friend who's not doing too good with cancer...got a month left. will continue with the updates ...just may not be too timely...got a question not sure if you can explain the following statement:

I sell only covered calls. Today I sold Aug $90 for $5.40, if ebay doesn't reach $90, I keep the stock and the $5.40. If it goes over $90, I have a $14 gain and the $5.40 - not bad.

[tsptalk]

I sell only covered calls. Today I sold Aug $90 for $5.40, if ebay doesn't reach $90, I keep the stock and the $5.40. If it goes over $90, I have a $14 gain and the $5.40 - not bad.
These are way confusing. Covered calls are a way tolimit risk in stocks. That person owns the stock but sold calls (a call is an option betting ebay will go up).

If ebay goes down (stays under 90)he gets to keep the $5.40 he sold the calls for (5.40 each share in the options contract, usually 100), but he owns ebay at a lower price.

Since he sold the calls,if ebay goes up, he loses money on the call to whoever bought it, but he makes money on the ebay stock he owns.

He says he keeps the 5.40 if it goes over 90 butI don't get that part. I thought he would haveto pay the buyer of the call whatever the price is over 90. Say it closed at 98, I thought he'd have to pay the buyer $8.00.

[tsptalk]

Basically a rising dollar is not good for the I fund and a falling dollar is. My belief is that today's drop was a last push down and it should rise again soon meaning the I fund may be held back. Today the I fund did well. Tomorrow I will be out of the I fund completely. This is a bet that the dollar will rise in the coming days or weeks, and that we are better off in the U.S. markets for a little while.

I wrote that the other day but it is not what we have seen. The dollar is not bouncing back like I thought it would. Instead it seems to have broken that uptrend channel. It would surprise me asthis is an indication of a weaker U.S. economy.

At this point it is probably getting oversold and may get a short term rally but the intermediate trend may be changing to the downside. This would HELP the I fund. If it breaks below 89.00 it is almost certain. But as I said, it may still need to rebound in the short term. Itappears to bedown again today. This is as of the close of 5/26...

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/dollar52604.gif
Chart provided courtesy of http://www.decisionpoint.com (http://www.decisionpoint.com)

[tsptalk]

Just as a side note. I expected the dollar to start to move up here and that it why I was pulling out of the I fund. Not because I thought the international markets were going to go down. My thinking was that if the U.S. and internationl markets both went up, the I fund shares could be held back by a rising dollar giving reason to stick with the U.S. funds. So far the dollar has not rebounded asI expected.

Unfortunately for those of you who were in the I fund , and some of you quite heavily, and pulledout becauseof my analysis, you may miss a nice day as the EAFE indexis up nicely today. For some reason the dollar is falling again, even though we had some good economic numbers come out this morning. Maybe I'm missing something or else this is the last blowout sell off for the dollar today.

It never fails. Whenever I have a good day and my analysis seems to be on the money, the market quickly comes back to humble me. Today is that day for me.

[puertorico]

I just have 10-I in case that happen soon !

10-i

60-s

30-c

Just hope [s] stay in the green zone

and I'll be alright :D

[smine]

Nope, not me. After losing big time two - three weeks ago I'm never going with 100%; rather have 34G 33C 33S; plan to always have a little G. Can't bear seeing it lose.

[tsptalk]

puertorico wrote:
I just have 10-I in case that happen soon !

PR -
You had questioned my zero % I fund move the other day. Again you were right (for now ;)). I have said this before but your instincts are uncanny. Your transfers continueto be timedvery well. Nice job!

[puertorico]

Thank Tom ,just lucky again !

But its tru what u doing.Now we are half-way up

Time to take that 10% out of I-fund to G.

From now on that I recuperate the big loses

time for take every day 10% and put it to G.

STRATEGY

1-Buy bottom add to stock little by little

2-In the way up 100 stock

3-after half way up start adding some to G [10%]

4- first out money is {I},then {S} just

hanging with C in the Top.

5-and if lucky in the way down stay put in G.

Tom..just trying to have a game plan

and always watching your input and everybodies

comments.For any idea or warning....:)#-1 fan tspTALK

[tsptalk]

Thanks PR. I like your game plan. :^

[tsptalk]

Back to the I fund, I emailed someone at thestreet.com who knows a lot more about economics and the dollar than I do. I asked why he thinks the dollar is continuing to fall. Here is his reponse:

"I believe the dollar is falling b/c recent economic data haven't been so great, meaning the Fed *might* not be so aggressive in tightening, meaning the yield differential b/t the fed funds rate and other CB rates will remain wide...and there's also the structural trade/budget deficits weighing on the buck on a more LT basis. Hope that helps, AT "

[tsptalk]

A nice day across the board. Especially the I fund - :'

I guess I shouldn't complain about a good day, but I feel bad that many of you pulled out of the I fund because of me. Maybe tomorrow or next week my analysis will pay off.

[tsptalk]

The dollar really took a beating today confirming the break of that trend line (see chart in postseveral posts above) as it fell to 88.70. Now my strategy changes. I will look for a rebound in the dollar to get into the I fund. That may take a few days.I don't want to jump right in as we could very well get a pullback in the EAFE and a rebound in the dollar after today's big day.

[Rolo]

baHAha!...oh, dontcha hate that? It's my fault since I moved more out of I than you did and those Fates don't like me. meh...It's only a 1% gain more than the C, no biggie...I'm happy with my choice.