DOOM Trading System

[Minnow]

Ok, introducing the DOOM trading system.

That stands for:

Do the
Opposite
Of
Minnow

Just made an IFT from S fund to the G fund so I'm out of the market as of cob today.

I am making the top half of the autotracker possible right now so, doing the opposite of me would be what the followers of the D.O.O.M.
would do right now.


(I think I'm gonna get a kick out of this). If it actually starts working, I don't know what I will do. Maybe enter it on the autotracker starting next year. :laugh::laugh:

Good trading to all of you on this Happy Happy Fed Day!!!

[nnuut]

I reallocated from 70% "S", 30% "C" to


F Fund
10


C Fund
65


S Fund
25



so I'm trying your system!:cool: Waiting for the FED Speak.:eek::eek:

[jpcavin]

Ok, introducing the DOOM trading system.

That stands for:

Do the
Opposite
Of
Minnow

Just made an IFT from S fund to the G fund so I'm out of the market as of cob today.

I am making the top half of the autotracker possible right now so, doing the opposite of me would be what the followers of the D.O.O.M.
would do right now.


(I think I'm gonna get a kick out of this). If it actually starts working, I don't know what I will do. Maybe enter it on the autotracker starting next year. :laugh::laugh:

Good trading to all of you on this Happy Happy Fed Day!!!

Thank you for stepping aside. My kids will eat better now. No more happy meals. :laugh:

[Cactus]

Or you could just look up my IFTs on the AT and do the opposite of that to see what you would have gotten. We could call that: Cactus' Reverse And Profit system. :D

[Minnow]

HMMM...

Ali vs. Frazier
Coke vs. Pepsi
DOOM vs. CRAP

I'm diggin' it, I'm diggin' it....

[Cactus]

Ouch, ouch, ouch! The last time I did this was 2011 when I earned -2.9% for the year. At that time I calculated CRAP to be about -4% so I felt better. It was only a joke.

OK, it's now time for the moment of truth. What is it today? I calculated CRAP from the beginning of the year using the previous equity/safety allocation. Here they are up through yesterday, October 28:



Cactus:

-7.63%



CRAP:

19.92%



Looks like CRAP is #2 on the AT. Now that hurts. How is DOOM doing?

[jpcavin]

Ouch, ouch, ouch! The last time I did this was 2011 when I earned -2.9% for the year. At that time I calculated CRAP to be about -4% so I felt better. It was only a joke.

OK, it's now time for the moment of truth. What is it today? I calculated CRAP from the beginning of the year using the previous equity/safety allocation. Here they are up through yesterday, October 28:



Cactus:

-7.63%



CRAP:

19.92%



Looks like CRAP is #2 on the AT. Now that hurts. How is DOOM doing?

Holy CRAP!

[Minnow]

Looks like CRAP is #2 on the AT. Now that hurts. How is DOOM doing?

Send me a PM showing me how you calculated yours, and I will try it with DOOM.

[burrocrat]

Ok, introducing the DOOM trading system.

That stands for:

Do the
Opposite
Of
Minnow

Just made an IFT from S fund to the G fund so I'm out of the market as of cob today.

I am making the top half of the autotracker possible right now so, doing the opposite of me would be what the followers of the D.O.O.M.
would do right now.


(I think I'm gonna get a kick out of this). If it actually starts working, I don't know what I will do. Maybe enter it on the autotracker starting next year. :laugh::laugh:

Good trading to all of you on this Happy Happy Fed Day!!!

ha, brilliant! and funny too!

i like it. i think more folks should consider sharing their 'systems'. there is something inherently laudable about being able to push forward in the face of adversity with a healthy dose of introspection while keeping a smile on your face.

please continue to maintain and share doomsys.

[Minnow]

Actually big hat tip to Cactus... he showed me that DOOM would be at +9.01% this year... a little less than the S&P... so the real winner so far is CRAP (the opposite of Cactus).

If you want to know what I had used and presently "use," I will share that a little later. However, I believe the opposite of Cactus (CRAP) might be a goldmine. But, being a contrarian system, how will his own knowledge affect the system. Will still have to be put to the test.

Good trading to all today!!!

[Cactus]

Ah yes, knowledge is its own problem. Once you find a pattern it stops working. Then there's the question of how do you bet against your own trade? I see a dog chasing his tail here. :D

At any rate, I'll keep posting my IFTs. Just remember to do the opposite.

As for my thoughts going forward, I expect the 4th quarter to be positive. I'd like to get back in and stay in, but we are too high off the recent rally to make this an entry point for me. I want to go in before the EOM but I just don't see that happening this time. I'll probably wait for a dip in early Nov. before going back in.

I've given some thought to my strategy for next year but haven't decided yet. I've been meaning to give one of the LMBF-1 methods a try for the year, but I have been disappointed with it this year (even if it is beating me). That means it should do well next year. Another thought I had is "I can't time my trades for anything so why even try." I've been toying with sticking it all in the S Fund for a year since the S & C Funds out-performed both me and LMBF. That, of course, indicates that 2015 is going to be a down year. Make of this what you will. My thoughts are likely to change.

[Minnow]

Minnow is out watching the indexes rocketing toward new highs.

DOOM is in and enjoying the action probably precipitated by the Bank of Japan overnight.

I'm assuming Cactus is with Minnow missing out on gains while CRAP is looking to shore up its #2 position. :laugh:

[Cactus]

Yeah, you are spot on with that. My emotions are really beating me up right now. :sick: I'm still holding fast in the G Fund waiting for a dip that may never come. That means CRAP is in the S Fund today as it's applying those afterburners and going supersonic into November. :blink:

P.S. With yesterdays return CRAP is now +20.10% for the year.

[Frixxxx]

I'm all about the CRAP & DOOM now!

[Minnow]

I said I will post a little of what I use(d) in the past. So, here goes:
30886
Back when I dabbled in daytrading (late '90s), my candlesticks would be on 15-minute bars (sometimes 5 also -- geez), so the timeframes would be much smaller but the principles still apply. On this chart, we see the S&P with the "trader" playing the 8/21 cross. It's no secret and I certainly didn't invent it.

The rules are this: if you are a frontrunner, which I am/was, just wait for the slow stochastic 14 line (black) to cross the 3 line (red) and go in. If you are not, then you wait for the 14 to cross the 3, THEN wait for the MACD black to cross the red.

Now, bear in mind, I preferred shorting and would do this in reverse and place "puts" using the inverse of this method. But, you can make money either way in this system, and I would many times place puts on the inverse and calls when the MACD crossed or the 8SMA crossed the 21SMA.

If you prefer the longer time frame, the 13/34 EMA (rather than SMA -- because its smoother and is easier on the eyes) would work as well as long as you set up the Slow Sto with a (60,3) rather than (14,3).

Again, the system isn't perfect especially if you are like me and grow impatient and like to frontrun. The system, by the mathematical functions it uses is naturally backward looking (but aren't most of the really?). So, like all systems, it's sort of an imperfect art.

Well, there you go.

This isn't the DOOM system, or the CRAP system, those are contrarian indicators to me and Cactus which, hilariously and to our detriment, are doing well. Care to share what helps you make your decisions Cactus?

[Minnow]

Holy CRAP!!! My paint skills and computer skills are off the charts.

Norm told me how to do this with good step by step instructions and look what happened. And now my head is stuck in the ceiling fan... how'd that happen? :laugh:

Sorry 'bout that guys.

Hope you all have a happy and spooooooky halloween.

[jpcavin]

Holy CRAP!!! My paint skills and computer skills are off the charts.

Norm told me how to do this with good step by step instructions and look what happened. And now my head is stuck in the ceiling fan... how'd that happen? :laugh:

Sorry 'bout that guys.

Hope you all have a happy and spooooooky halloween.


It looks pretty. Too bad I can't read it! Can you make it a little bigger, please? ;)

[konakathy]

It looks pretty. Too bad I can't read it! Can you make it a little bigger, please? ;)

You need to upgrade to an iPhone 6 plus, or better yet, get an iPad. It's easy to enlarge the picture on the touch screen.

Or, go old school and get a magnifying glass. :cheesy:

[jpcavin]

You need to upgrade to an iPhone 6 plus, or better yet, get an iPad. It's easy to enlarge the picture on the touch screen.

Or, go old school and get a magnifying glass. :cheesy:

I'm on a computer

[Minnow]

I do not have the ability to do so unless someone can tell me. I saved it from stockcharts.com to Paint and then drew my little arrows and changed the overlays. Then I saved it and tried to insert picture into my thread reply. Then I was sucked into the ceiling fan -- which is where I remain holding my laptop hoping someone will come by and show me how to escape the ceiling fan's clutches or make the picture bigger.

Sorry I can't be of more help.

Anyone? Anyone?

[jpcavin]

Ok...What do your red arrows mean? Green is usually Buy and Red is sell. But I think you are alternating colors in your drawing? Red/Red (BUY/SELL), Green/Green (BUY/SELL), etc. Am I reading it right?

[Cactus]

Minnow, you are very systematic and have a plan. That's good! My problem is recently I'm all over the board and don't stick with anything very long. Why? Here's my story.

I don't like investing -- never have. I only do it now because I believe I have too. I am too conservative. I was 100% in the G Fund until 2000. People at work pointed out I needed exposure to the market, so I waited for the Y2K scare to die down (remember that) and entered the C Fund in May 2000. I didn't know what I was doing. Yeah, it dropped, but I knew enough to buy-and-hold and believe in dollar-cost-averaging. Thing is I bought high and it wasn't going anywhere even after it came back. The only thing this was getting me was trying to get back up to where I started. Not much of a goal. I gave up on that in Nov 2007 and decided to go into autopilot by giving the L Fund a try for a year. That was a disaster. I put my money into L30 and watched it lose more money than I thought possible in 2008 with it's daily rebalancing. :mad:

So I gave up on that and came here and tried my hand at trading. I've been all over the place on that. Last year I tried a bit of LMBF-1 and using the RSI and bollinger bands. Thing is last year was a buy-and-hold year and the RSI remained overbought for extended periods of time. This year I've been mainly looking at support/resistance at the 50 & 200 day SMA. My problems have been what to do when my expectations aren't realized and when. I refuse to chase the market because that has burned me in the past (whipsaw), but this year that was the right thing to do here recently and last summer and back in Feb. The thing is our IFT limit doesn't give one much option. That is why I'm looking at going back to buy-and-hold next year or looking into following a trend system like LMBF. I need something where I'm not looking at the market every day because that isn't working for me. I'm my own worst enemy. CRAP proves that.

So you see I'm still not sticking to one system and that is probably what's killing me.

[jpcavin]

http://tapatalk.imageshack.com/v2/14/10/31/9830dae9971fd993449e2b630e5942a5.jpg

[Minnow]

Ok...What do your red arrows mean? Green is usually Buy and Red is sell. But I think you are alternating colors in your drawing? Red/Red (BUY/SELL), Green/Green (BUY/SELL), etc. Am I reading it right?

When I started drawing, I forgot that I preferred to short so, my "buy" would actually have been a "sell" when the slow sto 14 crossed below the 3.

The arrows (colors don't mean anything other than my paint skills are BADDDDD) are just showing that now I (the frontrunner) buy when the slow sto 14 crosses the 3. If you want to play it safe, wait until the slow sto 14 crosses the 3 and the MACD and the 8sma crosses above the 21sma. But sell as soon as the slow sto 14 crosses below the 3.

I have not followed this system religiously this year because, hey, life gets in the way. It's just generally my way of "trading" (although I preferred to sell short and actually trade on 15 minute bars instead) since I was too stupid to follow the P&F C chart this year.

[Minnow]

Minnow, you are very systematic and have a plan. That's good! My problem is recently I'm all over the board and don't stick with anything very long. Why? Here's my story.

I don't like investing -- never have. I only do it now because I believe I have too. I am too conservative. I was 100% in the G Fund until 2000. People at work pointed out I needed exposure to the market, so I waited for the Y2K scare to die down (remember that) and entered the C Fund in May 2000. I didn't know what I was doing. Yeah, it dropped, but I knew enough to buy-and-hold and believe in dollar-cost-averaging. Thing is I bought high and it wasn't going anywhere even after it came back. The only thing this was getting me was trying to get back up to where I started. Not much of a goal. I gave up on that in Nov 2007 and decided to go into autopilot by giving the L Fund a try for a year. That was a disaster. I put my money into L30 and watched it lose more money than I thought possible in 2008 with it's daily rebalancing. :mad:

So I gave up on that and came here and tried my hand at trading. I've been all over the place on that. Last year I tried a bit of LMBF-1 and using the RSI and bollinger bands. Thing is last year was a buy-and-hold year and the RSI remained overbought for extended periods of time. This year I've been mainly looking at support/resistance at the 50 & 200 day SMA. My problems have been what to do when my expectations aren't realized and when. I refuse to chase the market because that has burned me in the past (whipsaw), but this year that was the right thing to do here recently and last summer and back in Feb. The thing is our IFT limit doesn't give one much option. That is why I'm looking at going back to buy-and-hold next year or looking into following a trend system like LMBF. I need something where I'm not looking at the market every day because that isn't working for me. I'm my own worst enemy. CRAP proves that.

So you see I'm still not sticking to one system and that is probably what's killing me.


Nope, I'm the same as you... I haven't been able to stick to the system because life gets in the way. I dont always have the time to study charts and do backtesting. Sucks. But, I do have time to watch my kids play sports, help with homework, take care of most of the honey "do" list and talk to you nice folks. I can live with that. I'm still young enough to make up all the investment wrongs I have committed over the past year or two -- plus I was following Ebb when he was on fire a few years ago -- thanks Ebb.

Glad to have you posting man.

[jpcavin]

When I started drawing, I forgot that I preferred to short so, my "buy" would actually have been a "sell" when the slow sto 14 crossed below the 3.

The arrows (colors don't mean anything other than my paint skills are BADDDDD) are just showing that now I (the frontrunner) buy when the slow sto 14 crosses the 3. If you want to play it safe, wait until the slow sto 14 crosses the 3 and the MACD and the 8sma crosses above the 21sma. But sell as soon as the slow sto 14 crosses below the 3.

I have not followed this system religiously this year because, hey, life gets in the way. It's just generally my way of "trading" (although I preferred to sell short and actually trade on 15 minute bars instead) since I was too stupid to follow the P&F C chart this year.


Based on your green arrows, it would appear that you would buy around the 15/16 or September and sell around the 19th?? If you compare prices for these days, it would have been a losing trade, would it not? If you look at ROC in my chart for this period, momentum is actually decreasing. That's what I see anyway. Anyone else see it differently? I'm learning with ya bro!

[Minnow]

Yep, green arrows would have been a losing trade. Should have colored them red, huh? Like: "Caution" this system isn't perfect. I don't believe I did anything then for some reason -- I think the 8sma was trying to cross back below the 21sma during that timeframe. There's more subtle things with the system that I didn't include. I will try to find a good description and then link it to you. Fair enough?

What I did do recently at the end of July was buy when the slow sto crossed mid-day (but not convincingly) anticipating a big move... well, at the close of business the slow sto 14 actually was still below the 3... and the markets fell around 2%. That's what I get for frontrunning.

I'm learning too.

[jpcavin]

Yep, green arrows would have been a losing trade. Should have colored them red, huh? Like: "Caution" this system isn't perfect. I don't believe I did anything then for some reason -- I think the 8sma was trying to cross back below the 21sma during that timeframe. There's more subtle things with the system that I didn't include. I will try to find a good description and then link it to you. Fair enough?

What I did do recently at the end of July was buy when the slow sto crossed mid-day (but not convincingly) anticipating a big move... well, at the close of business the slow sto 14 actually was still below the 3... and the markets fell around 2%. That's what I get for frontrunning.

I'm learning too.

I guess what I was getting at is that you can't use slow stochastics by itself. I've been down that route before and it was not pretty. ;)

[Minnow]

Link that's part of a powerpoint (8/21 crossover stuff starts around page 5):

http://freewebinars.s3.amazonaws.com/Bringing-It-All-Together-With-Anchors.pdf

Basically, you look for a market that is trending upward at least in the mid-term (week or two --means more than one would think) and then get that slow sto 14 breaking above the 3. if the 8 sma crosses above the 21 and the MACD falls in line, so be it. But you don't want to trade against the trend -- unless you're selling short. That's probably why I'm still learning on this one.

[Minnow]

I guess what I was getting at is that you can't use slow stochastics by itself. I've been down that route before and it was not pretty. ;)


Absolutely 100% correct. Have a happy halloween!!!

[alevin]

I do not have the ability to do so unless someone can tell me. I saved it from stockcharts.com to Paint and then drew my little arrows and changed the overlays. Then I saved it and tried to insert picture into my thread reply. Then I was sucked into the ceiling fan -- which is where I remain holding my laptop hoping someone will come by and show me how to escape the ceiling fan's clutches or make the picture bigger.

Sorry I can't be of more help.

Anyone? Anyone?

I'm not much help. My skills extend to the paint-import and insert arrows, beyond that, me and the ceiling fan just go round and round too. :laugh:

[PessOptimist]

11, you may have gotten the paint answer all ready. Open your chart in paint. Use the slider thingy on the right to go all the way to the bottom. Somewhere in the middle of the image is a place you can mouse over and get a two ended arrow. If this image is really big you may have to use the bottom slider thingy to find this little square. Once you find it, left click hold and move up to the bottom of the chart. You may have to do the same thing with the width using the bottom slider thingy. I am not explaining this well but I hope it helps.

PO

[alevin]

Never did find the 2-ended arrow you spoke of, but I learned how to use the arrows tonight. easier than the hand-drawn ones I've always done before.30893

From the looks of things, there is still room for this move to continue for a little bit. See the purple arrow at the top. If wishes were fishes, I'd be in the swim of things. :rolleyes: alas, I was out of town all week, didn't have time to watch or react. Same will transpire this coming week, different place, same project.

The macd divergence still concerns me. I always look at weekly charts before I look at daily or shorter for entry decisions.

[PessOptimist]

Chart looks good so you are on top of it.

[Minnow]

Yep, for more long term types, it's hard to beat playing the 13/34 cross (weekly). Wish I could just do that.

I agree, nice chart and arrows. Paint skills off the charts!!!!

[Minnow]

If you're following DOOM, it's still in the market enjoying the gains. Minnow is just slightly peeved that he's not catching these gains.

Wonder how CRAP is doing?

[Cactus]

as of COB 11/19:


Cactus

CRAP



-7.5%

+21.83%



still in the G Fund

still in the S Fund



CRAP is still #2 on the AT. Cactus is waiting for a pullback to jump into the market for a santa clause rally. CRAP will jump to the G Fund at that time.

[tsptalk]

Go, CRAP, go!

[Cactus]

Still waiting for that pullback. :o Looks like Cactus will go into Dec. sitting on the lily pad (G Fund) which means CRAP stays the course in the S Fund.

CRAP is still @ #2 on the AT as of COB 11/25.



Cactus

CRAP



-7.47%

24.22%




Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Remember this year I'm the turkey. Don't poke yourself picking your teeth with my spines. ;)

[Cactus]

Cactus goes from G to S COB today which means CRAP goes from S to G.

CRAP is @ #3 on the AT as of COB 12/22.



Cactus

CRAP



-7.33%

24.48%




Make of this what you will.

[Cactus]

For all you inquiring minds out there, this is how Cactus and CRAP finished off 2014:



Cactus
CRAP


-7.39%

24.76%




Looks like even that last move by Cactus was a loser and CRAP benefited from it. If CRAP were on the AT it would have finished @ #3 for 2014.

[JTH]

For all you inquiring minds out there, this is how Cactus and CRAP finished off 2014:



Cactus
CRAP


-7.39%
24.76%



Looks like even that last move by Cactus was a loser and CRAP benefited from it. If CRAP were on the AT it would have finished @ #3 for 2014.

Good stuff, just get your Crap together, and make a run for #1

[Minnow]

Looks like CRAP was by far the better contrarian system than DOOM for 2014. Kudos to you Cactus -- or is it condolences?


Anyways, since I have received thousands upon thousands:laugh: of letters, e-mails and MySpace posts (remember that thing? I don't) -- Minnow is still in the G. That would put the DOOM system in the C.

All you TspTalkers have a great and prosperous 2015, and if you don't, at least be able to laugh about it.

[Cactus]

Good stuff, just get your Crap together, and make a run for #1I'd love to Jason, but I can't seam make a winning IFT to save my life. I said it before and I'll say it again: some of us aren't cut out for investing. CRAP is off to a great start in 2015. :sick:

[Cactus]

Minnow, is DOOM really in the C Fund? I thought it was in S. Your Recent IFT History shows you went to S on 10/21 and G on 10/29. Are there IFTs missing for being a Premium Service Member or something?

I was going to congratulate you for being aligned with CRAP in the G Fund while I'm aligned with DOOM in the S Fund. Well, either way it's to your advantage so far in 2015. Congratulations!! :cool:

[Minnow]

Minnow, is DOOM really in the C Fund? I thought it was in S. Your Recent IFT History shows you went to S on 10/21 and G on 10/29. Are there IFTs missing for being a Premium Service Member or something?

I was going to congratulate you for being aligned with CRAP in the G Fund while I'm aligned with DOOM in the S Fund. Well, either way it's to your advantage so far in 2015. Congratulations!! :cool:

Didn't see this until today. So, sorry for the late reply.

Yes, the DOOM system would have been in the C fund for the year so far. I went S the last time I went in but it seemed that the C and S fought in the intervening time period for leadership and C seemed to be a "safer" bet for DOOM than the S at the time. Well, S is down less than C now. Oh well.

Yes, I have been and continue to be tucked away in the G fund. Boring but green.

The market doesn't seem to be signalling a direction. JPM just spit the bit so, for now I remain on the sidelines.

Good trading to you and to all TSPTalkers.

[Minnow]

Congrats to those who are in the market and are Doing the Opposite Of Minnow.

Before the Feds do their thing... just saw an interesting weekly chart on the dollar.

How long can bucky stay up? Your guess is as good as mine. Good trading/investing to all.

32500

[Minnow]

Once again, Paint skills off the charts.

Sorry folks...

[Cactus]

Sounds like DOOM is still working, 2.31% YTD (C Fund). That's too bad for you. :(

Cactus is doing better this year, 3.45% YTD (S Fund), while CRAP is with you in the G Fund, 0.26% YTD.

[Minnow]

Sounds like DOOM is still working, 2.31% YTD (C Fund). That's too bad for you. :(

Cactus is doing better this year, 3.45% YTD (S Fund), while CRAP is with you in the G Fund, 0.26% YTD.

Yep, been unable to catch any moves -- and my trigger finger is gettin' itchy. At least I'm green so far, though. I'm glad Cactus is doing better than CRAP. That's some genuine progress right there, man -- although you might have to change that avatar --- wait, no.... no need to jinx yourself.

[Cactus]

Cactus is bailing today -- 100% G Fund by EOD today. That means CRAP is going 100% S Fund.

Here are the returns so far this year:


Cactus

CRAP



4.04%

0.33%




So far, Cactus is doing better this year.

[Minnow]

Minnow is jumping in (100% C fund) -- (may only be a day or two play).

That means DOOM retreats to the safety of the G fund.


Happy trading everyone.

[Minnow]

Alrighty folks, Minnow is going to all G fund.

That means the DOOM followers would enter the market starting Monday. Tough call between C and S (that I fund FV may loom large in the coming days).

Gotta go pay more attention to my NCAA bracket -- there are extremely valuable prizes available I hear... time for more TSPTalk swag.

Good trading and good luck to all you guys.

[Cactus]

I want to enter April invested so Cactus goes 100% S Fund today which means CRAP goes 100% G.

Here are the returns so far this year:


Cactus

CRAP



4.47%

1.75%



Cactus is still doing better this year.

[Minnow]

Good trading to you cactus and good luck.

[Cactus]

April has never been kind to me, so you'd think I'd learn as once again I get flushed down the toilet. :(

CRAP spent the month in the G Fund and earned a measly 0.15% while Cactus spent the month in the S Fund and lost his shirt at the end with -1.5 for the month.

Here are the annual standings:


Cactus

CRAP



2.91%

1.50%



CRAP is catching up. :mad:

[Minnow]

Minnow stayed in the G fund.

I probably would've been torn between the C and S fund and would probably have done a 50/50 split. Either way... I stayed green so happy happy happy.

Good trading to all of you.

[Minnow]

Minnow going in for tomorrow IFT today 50/50 between C and S funds. If you're strictly DOOM, you would take this moment to get out to the safe haven of your choice -- probably G although the F might have a little meat left on the bone.

Haven't been around much. Lots of youth baseball tournaments to enjoy.

[Minnow]

Minnow exiting cob today back to G fund (tempted by F fund but not enough). Those doing the DOOM would make entry into the markets at this point. Choosing between C,S and I is up to you. The dollar would probably be my guide should I be tempted by the I fund.

Good luck to all of you my TSP buddies.

[Cactus]

The S Fund is pushing the upper bollinger band on this break-out rally to record highs. I'm expecting lower prices next week so Cactus goes 100% G Fund today which means CRAP goes 100% S.

Here are the returns so far this year:


Cactus

CRAP



5.70%

1.77%



Cactus is still doing better this year.

[k0nkuzh0n]

Choosing between C,S and I is up to you. The dollar would probably be my guide should I be tempted by the I fund.

except we should use the inverse logic, right? :laugh:

[Minnow]

except we should use the inverse logic, right? :laugh:

right, the inverse of my logic... my logic would be "I" fund... so, the inverse would be C or S. But the system isn't so refined as that. You're just doing the opposite of me.

Funny stuff.

[Minnow]

In case no one has mentioned it before .... all my fellow Americans and TSPTalkers, please have a very Happy and Blessed 4th of July!!!!

[Cactus]

Buying the fear in the markets today. Looks like we are due for a relief rally soon. I'm currently above the C, S, & I Funds so prices are low enough for me.

Cactus goes 30% C, 40% S, and 30% I. That means CRAP goes 100% G.

Here are the returns so far this year:


Cactus

CRAP



6.91%

(1.06%)



Looks like CRAP went down the toilet! :D

[Minnow]

Best of luck and good trading to you, Cactus.

Glad to hear you're better than CRAP. :D

[Minnow]

Minnow is going in 100% C fund for Monday. (Unless something spooks the charts before IFT cutoff time).

If you're doing the DOOM thing, you would go to the G or F (depending on your preference -- I would say G).

[nnuut]

Minnow is going in 100% C fund for Monday. (Unless something spooks the charts before IFT cutoff time).

If you're doing the DOOM thing, you would go to the G or F (depending on your preference -- I would say G).


You are a very BRAVE Man, NOT ME.

[Minnow]

You are a very BRAVE Man, NOT ME.

When you're as far away from retirement as I am and you have as many minnows to feed as I do, brave's got nothin' to do with it. :laugh:

[nnuut]

When you're as far away from retirement as I am and you have as many minnows to feed as I do, brave's got nothin' to do with it. :laugh:


Yer right you can take more chances than I. I don't know where the bottom is but it doesn't look good to me.

[Minnow]

I am indecisive and miss my unlimited moves. I'm going 75%G fund and leaving 25% in the C fund.

If you are following DOOM, this would be a movement partially in to a stock fund or all in -- depending on how contrarian (or anti-contrarian -- I forget:D) you are.

[Cactus]

Cactus is bailing to 50:50 F & G today. That means CRAP goes to 30% C, 40% S, and 30% I.

Here are the returns so far this year:


Cactus

CRAP



0.36%

(0.37%)



Hard come -- easy go! At least Cactus is still beating CRAP.

[FogSailing]

I'll be glad when I can say "bottoms up" again and smile about it. Hopefully we can get this drudgery out of the way this month. I actually hope the Fed does raise rates just to get the show on the road. Good Luck Cactus.

FS

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

[Minnow]

Minnow is taking the last 25% out of the C fund and sticking it in the G fund. Since my last move was really uncertain, I left 25% in the market. Really not much harm in that. Didn't entirely pan out, but I didn't have all my indicators strong like I wanted. If you are following the DOOM strategy, you might make a move back in partially or fully.

-- I was really sweating my move when the maket dropped so much, funny how it actually ended up being around a 13% round trip move but, when all was said and done on paper, just a little over 1%. Wild ride.

Oh well, sometimes you win, sometimes you learn. If you're real lucky, you do both at the same time.

[Cactus]

Cactus is going into October invested: 34%C, 33%S, 33%I. That means CRAP goes to 50%G, 50% F. Be wearned that this could be a short stay.

Here are the returns so far this year:


Cactus

CRAP



1.0%

(5.4%)



Ouch, the CRAP really hit the fan on that last trade. More better for me. :D

[Cactus]

My short stay is over. Cactus just went 50% G & 50% F. This means CRAP now goes 34%C, 33%S, 33%I.

[Minnow]

Really spaced it here DOOM followers.

For monday Minnow goes in 50% C 50% S. That means DOOM dudes and dudettes would run to safety.

Good luck to all!!!

[Minnow]

Minnow going back to the G fund 100%. If you want to go DOOM, jump right on in.

Have fun.

[Cactus]

Cactus is going 60%C 40%S for Christmas. This means CRAP goes 50%G 50% F.

Here are the returns this year through Dec 17:


Cactus

CRAP



6.59%
(4.59)

[Cactus]

Cactus is going 100%G EOB today. This means CRAP goes 60%C 40% S.

Here are the returns this year through Feb 25:


Cactus

CRAP



(5.9%)

1.33%

[Cactus]

Cactus is reallocating from 100%G to 100%F EOB today. Since Cactus is not entering the market CRAP will remain 60% C 40% S.

Here are the returns this year through Aug 23:


Cactus

CRAP



(4.98%)

17.14%

[Cactus]

Cactus is entering the market for a spell here, 50% C 50% S. That means CRAP goes 100% F.

Here are the returns this year through Sep 26:


Cactus

CRAP



(5.01%)

16.55%

[Cactus]

Cactus goes 100% G Fund for early next week. I may get back in before December. That means CRAP goes 50% C, 50% S.

Here are the returns through 11/22/16:



Cactus
CRAP


(1.48%)
12.83%



Cactus is doing better but is still negative for the year while CRAP took a dive with the F Fund.

[Cactus]

Cactus goes 100% S Fund today so CRAP goes 100% G Fund.

Here are the returns through Dec 20, 2016:


Cactus
CRAP


(0.66%)
15.3%

[Cactus]

And the day after the trade the market drops like a rock. :mad:

Now you know why CRAP does so well and Cactus keeps taking it in the shorts. It's because he's already lost his shirt. :o

[RealMoneyIssues]

And the day after the trade the market drops like a rock. :mad:

Now you know why CRAP does so well and Cactus keeps taking it in the shorts. It's because he's already lost his shirt. :o

I'm with you there brother... maybe I should figure out what my arch-opposite would be at :eek:

[Minnow]

Wow... you may really be on to something with that CRAP.

What with my moving and stuff I haven't been able to keep up with DOOM.

I hate to say it, but life just got to busy and I stuck my dough in a L fund (2040) and forgot about it. Didn't have time to follow and stuff. I became one of "those people."

Will find a way to stay on top of things once I get my feet set.

Hope all is well with you guys. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year all you super TSPTalkers!!!

[Cactus]

For all you enquiering minds out there, this is how Cactus & CRAP finished out 2016:



Cactus

CRAP



(1.79%)
14.74%


Here are the last 5 year returns together with their 3 & 5 year annualized returns:




Cactus
CRAP


2012
2.75%
19.06%


2013
17.29%
7.29%


2014
(7.39%)

24.76%


2015
8.71%
(5.87%)


2016
(1.79%)
14.74%


3 Year CAGR
(0.38%)
10.45%


5 Year CAGR
3.57%
11.47%

[Cactus]

Cactus goes 100% G Fund today so CRAP goes 100% S Fund.

Cactus had been in the S Fund all year while CRAP was in G so if you want to know their relative performances so far check out the S & G Funds. They just changed places.

[Cactus]

Cactus goes 100% S Fund today so CRAP goes 100% G Fund.

Here are the returns through Oct 30, 2017:


Cactus
CRAP


9.39%
5.83%


CRAP is catching up but you still would have been better of Buy-N-Holding any of our stock funds this year.

[uscfanhawaii]

Cactus goes 100% S Fund today so CRAP goes 100% G Fund.

Here are the returns through Oct 30, 2017:


Cactus

CRAP



9.39%

5.83%



CRAP is catching up but you still would have been better of Buy-N-Holding any of our stock funds this year.

Amazing year, especially for the Buy-N-Holders!
A quick look at the Autotracker shows almost NO ONE is negative for the year. Very unusual.

[Cactus]

Yeah, especially for me. :sick:

[nasa1974]

Amazing year, especially for the Buy-N-Holders!
A quick look at the Autotracker shows almost NO ONE is negative for the year. Very unusual.

Just wish we had one or two more IFT's. I'm happy where I'm at, but I would have moved around C&I a little bit if I had some extra IFT's to play with.

[Cactus]

Yeah, I would not have stayed out since July if I had another IFT or two to play with. :mad:

[Cactus]

Here are the End-Of-Year results for cactus & CRAP:



Cactus
CRAP


13.10%
7.65%



Looks like they both made money but not as much as if you had been in any of our equity funds all year. This was a Buy-And_hold year. At least cactus beat CRAP for this year. :D

[Cactus]

Cactus reallocates equities from 100% S to 100% C. This means CRAP remains 100% G.

The return for Cactus so far this year is that of the S Fund: 5.34%

The return for CRAP so far this year is that of the G Fund: 0.17%

[Cactus]

As of Feb 5, 2018:



Cactus
CRAP


(2.87%)
0.24%


CRAP had a rough year against Cactus in 2017 but is looking pretty good now. It just goes to show you that if you stick with Cactus long enough things will turn to CRAP.

[Cactus]

Well, February was the first losing month for the S&P500 in 16 months. :eek: February was also the first time in years that Cactus decided to go in to the C Fund for the month. :o Hmmm -- is there a connection? :suspicious:

[Cactus]

As of Apr 20, 2018:



Cactus
CRAP


(1.66%)
0.81%


CRAP is still in the lead this year while Cactus is sticking with negative returns.

[Cactus]

Cactus goes 100% S Fund for September so CRAP goes 100% S Fund.

[Cactus]

My mistake -- that should have been Cactus goes 100% G Fund.

Here are our respective returns as of Sep 6, 2018:



Cactus
CRAP


9.68%
0.51%


CRAP has fallen behind while Cactus has taken off this year. You don't see that every day.

[Cactus]

Cactus goes 100% I Fund for October so CRAP goes 100% G Fund.

[Cactus]

Cactus is still in equities so there hasn't been any moves for CRAP since Sep.

Here is how they finished out the year and also their 5 year annualized average:




Cactus
CRAP



2018:
(3.36%)
0.86%


5 year average:
2.26%
7.83%


Looks like you are still better off doing the opposite of what Cactus does. :(

[Cactus]

Correction to previous post.

Cactus' 5 year annualized return is only 1.56%, not 2.26%, so it is even worse than I thought.