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OBXTrader
09-05-2014, 07:00 AM
Does the AutoTracker reflect your real TSP account moves and holdings? Only a partial year in standings, but my AutoTracker is my real account performance.

Huge moves in and out of sectors for fun and games is one thing, but playing with real retirement fund money is another.

Frixxxx
09-05-2014, 07:28 AM
Read my signature.

I try to keep them the same. But my last move in the real world was made early, and I got hung up in a meeting and I couldn't get the AT request in on time.

Frixxxx

WorkFE
09-05-2014, 07:33 AM
Does the AutoTracker reflect your real TSP account moves and holdings?


It does if you log into 2 totally different accounts and make the same identical moves in both. making moves in TSP Talk does not activate a move in your actual TSP account and making moves in your actual TSP account will not reflect in TSP Talk until you make an identical move there.

RealMoneyIssues
09-05-2014, 09:59 AM
Mine does...

weatherweenie
09-05-2014, 10:02 AM
Does the AutoTracker reflect your real TSP account moves and holdings? Only a partial year in standings, but my AutoTracker is my real account performance.

Huge moves in and out of sectors for fun and games is one thing, but playing with real retirement fund money is another.

I try to keep the AT in concert with my actual TSP moves. However, sometimes life gets in the way of me being able to enter the AT moves.

nnuut
09-05-2014, 10:15 AM
Mine does, never missed one!

ILoveTDs
09-05-2014, 10:32 AM
ILoveTDs reflects my true TSP moves and ILTDTechnical reflects my timing system which I some times deviate from in ILoveTDs.

czapor1967
09-05-2014, 10:53 AM
mine absolutely does, otherwise what would be the point?

Frixxxx
09-05-2014, 11:00 AM
mine absolutely does, otherwise what would be the point?

Good question, but some people might do it just to win the prize!

WorkFE
09-05-2014, 12:54 PM
Good question, but some people might do it just to win the prize!

If thats the case then there are about 900 folks that should give up till 2015.

Me being one of them :laugh:

OBXTrader
09-05-2014, 01:49 PM
Exactly might point in starting this thread. When I see big bets put down in C/S/I, I wonder if that's real money in real TSP accounts or just TSPTalk money. Because if I was trying to win the monthly or yearly prize, I would swing for the fences every month. When it's my real money, I just can't do that.


Good question, but some people might do it just to win the prize!

PessOptimist
09-05-2014, 03:36 PM
Yes and no. My moves are my real moves. Since I move money around so infrequently the percentages get off. In the tracker I am 40G/60C since 3/31/14. In reality I am 37G/63C due to the increase in the C fund value and payroll allocations.

I have asked for opinions about adjusting this once in a while with about a 50/50 split in yes/no. Either way I am going to win no prizes.

PO

alevin
09-06-2014, 10:48 AM
I try to keep the AT in concert with my actual TSP moves. However, sometimes life gets in the way of me being able to enter the AT moves.

Same here. I can't log into autotracker from work puter, which is where I'm usually sitting when I make my final decision on a move. fortunately for AT, I don't make moves very often, so AT is pretty close to reality. One way I've developed to try to stay in sync, is to make real IFT move after noon, for next day COB. That way I can enter the move in AT the morning the move will hit my real account.

And no, I don't undo a real afternoon IFT the next morning, based on what's happening in the market the next morning before I get to work, therefore whatever I do put in AT that morning for a move, reflects what is really happening that day in the real account. And no, I am most definitely not going after monthly prizes based on fake AT moves. :suspicious: Obviously. :o

burrocrat
09-06-2014, 11:10 AM
i always match my tsptalk moves with my tspgov moves. contributions and allocations are the same too, no selling one (allocation) just to buy it back on payday (contribution).

i've found out that i only learn things the hard way for myself. it's how i'm wired. so playing with a fake money loss doesn't hurt, and winning with a bold move or backtesting brings no joy. i learn nothing from those exercises and i can't read charts anyways. i only play with my real chips, they match the autotracker. it makes me think a little harder before pulling the trigger with real consequences on the line.

note: i don't have a big tsp balance, i don't ever expect to retire in comfort and style just work until i die, and if i was to get lucky and a big duffel bag of money fell out of the sky and hit me on the head it would probably be full of pennies and break my neck. be careful what you wish for.

nasa1974
09-06-2014, 11:18 AM
My AT account has always reflected my TSP account. Even in retirement.

OBGibby
09-07-2014, 07:35 AM
My AT and TSP account IFT moves are the same. Contributions are not always the same.

Sensei
09-07-2014, 07:46 AM
The first thing I do after every IFT in my real TSP account is log into the AT and update that allocation. So, yes - my TSPTalk allocation is my real allocation. I have seen a few people on this site cop to making different moves in their real accounts, so it's definitely a legitimate question. As you can see, however, the only people responding in this thread are those are playing for real.

Boghie
09-07-2014, 10:40 AM
I view the AT as a tool. It is a very good tool for seeing what your actual returns are without the 'pollution' of contributions. So, yes, I keep the AT accurate.

Since AT is not blocked at my worksite I will enact the official trade, then update the AT, and then make an entry in my thread - in that order. I have missed one trade (in 2008 for two days and it didn't make a difference so I didn't hassle Tom) and I did have the official site not post a legal trade that Tom backed me out of in the AT. That is over seven years. I value the AT as a financial tool - but I am not against a little smack - see 2009 with me and BT lobbing scuds:p.

As far as noting that some make big moves and some make allocation adjustments, I think that is just trading style. I don't think there are too many survivors out there that are just gunning for mugs with fake trades. Remember, they would have to have an incredible crystal ball to consistently make the right moves. What I have seen from those I track is that the good ones are worth following. And, in general they comment in their threads. Doing so can make you look bad when you 'guess' wrong in an attempt to make the big win (see my posts over the past year or so:cheesy:). You really cannot backdate moves on the AT since you have to make them by 1200 EST. Maybe you could hassle Tom to constantly back you out of trades resulting in one day losses of -0.38% or something. But, what difference does it make!!! Are you going to hassle Tom to get you into a day of market up-moves (+0.13%) the next day. Me thinks Tom would figure that one out pretty quick, eh;). You might have been able to gain a bit in the AT in 2008/09, but I don't think so. My delayed entry in the AT cost me nothing on the AT as far as positioning - it was something like 0.02% to the positive so I should have yelled for justice!!!

One thing to note about the AT is rather obvious. It obviously cannot take into consideration your contributions. My contributions are 0/0/40/30/30 so my equities are always getting a little boost. Thus, my actual returns have been marginally better than the AT. Regardless, the AT does take into account dividend reinvestment because it tracks the 'C Fund' rather than the S&P500. So, in the end, many thanks to Tom for this site and a tremendous applause to those active on the site and a modest apology for all those who make long and inane posts on this site.:nuts:

Sensei
09-08-2014, 01:34 AM
You really cannot backdate moves on the AT since you have to make them by 1200 EST. Maybe you could hassle Tom to constantly back you out of trades resulting in one day losses of -0.38% or something. But, what difference does it make!!! Are you going to hassle Tom to get you into a day of market up-moves (+0.13%) the next day. Me thinks Tom would figure that one out pretty quick, eh;). You might have been able to gain a bit in the AT in 2008/09, but I don't think so. My delayed entry in the AT cost me nothing on the AT as far as positioning - it was something like 0.02% to the positive so I should have yelled for justice!!!


I don't think the issue is people cheating by asking Tom to back date an IFT. What I have seen a couple members post in their threads is something to the effect of, "Going 100 S-fund on the tracker. In my real account, I'm still holding 50% G fund..." I suspect many people look long or short on the AT, but their actual TSP account stays diversified. I think that's what the OP was getting at.

OBXTrader
09-08-2014, 10:17 AM
Sensei - We are in agreement as that was my observations. I just wondered how many at the very top or bottom are playing with real money or house money. I would die if I really was losing that much money in my real TSP account as the bottom dwellers.


I don't think the issue is people cheating by asking Tom to back date an IFT. What I have seen a couple members post in their threads is something to the effect of, "Going 100 S-fund on the tracker. In my real account, I'm still holding 50% G fund..." I suspect many people look long or short on the AT, but their actual TSP account stays diversified. I think that's what the OP was getting at.

Frixxxx
09-08-2014, 10:19 AM
I guess I'm trying to figure out this thread. There are historical performances for each on the AT. If you are following the AT as a guiding factor, then I would think you would choose the best performers regardless of real/not real trading....

OBXTrader
09-08-2014, 10:41 AM
Frixxxx - It's not real deep, just was curious who has the conviction to risk real money going 100% S Fund for example. I am not there, nor likely will be since I am unable to contribute any longer.

Also, I am not a Premium Member so the results I see for you are based on last IFT on 30 April 2013 50% S Fund and 50% I Fund which is different than your signature line.


I guess I'm trying to figure out this thread. There are historical performances for each on the AT. If you are following the AT as a guiding factor, then I would think you would choose the best performers regardless of real/not real trading....

Frixxxx
09-08-2014, 10:44 AM
Yeah, I posted the issue on my account thread so everyone could see it. I don't use the AT for much except to review where the "lucky ones" are.

Cactus
09-08-2014, 11:34 AM
Sensei - We are in agreement as that was my observations. I just wondered how many at the very top or bottom are playing with real money or house money. I would die if I really was losing that much money in my real TSP account as the bottom dwellers.Well, I'm at the bottom and my AT always reflects my actual IFT. I don't see what is so hard about doing that. I always update my AT right after entering an IFT. I can see there being a problem if you can't get to the AT at work, but what you usually hear is: "I forgot to enter it into the AT." That makes it sound more like there is a difference between their actual and AT IFT's IMHO.

My contributions are different. I don't use the AT to try to match my actual balance, only my IFT decisions.

Unmanned
09-08-2014, 12:22 PM
Frixxxx - It's not real deep, just was curious who has the conviction to risk real money going 100% S Fund for example. I am not there, nor likely will be since I am unable to contribute any longer.

My AT reflects my real TSP. Each move I make is a 3 part process: First: Allocation change Second: Contribution change to reflect the new allocation Third: AT change.

I use the AT as a barometer as to what others are thinking to help me make my decisions and it provides me feedback as to how I'm doing with my choices compared to the herd.

Not sure its a "conviction" but I feel the only way I'll be able to reach my 7 figure goal at retirement is to move the entire egg to whichever nest(s) feels the most comfortable at the time and keep everything working for me. With an improving balance I don't make many moves, I'm careful with each one, but figure I need all eight cylinders full throttle to get to where I'm headed.

nasa1974
09-08-2014, 01:07 PM
I use the AT as a barometer as to what others are thinking to help me make my decisions and it provides me feedback as to how I'm doing with my choices compared to the herd.


Exactly. The AT is a tool to help others decide what to do with their TSP account not something to use as the only decision maker.

Back when daily IFT's were availible there were a handful of members that had followings. When they made a move a group of us made the same move. I think the biggest difference then versus now is most of those folks would post about 15 minutes before noon to say why they were making the move. You understood why they made the decision. Not much of that going on today. Plus the 2 IFT's per month has made most of us more cautious and forced us to try to understand the market a little better and not depend on someone else to decide for us.

Boghie
09-08-2014, 02:08 PM
OB,

In a way I think you hit your issues on the head. There may be a few folks who purposely clobber their AT records in some form of attempting to backdate some form of system. I guess you could do that, and keep the review of the system performance honest. Right now there are some funds, fund managers, and especially hedge funds that used backdated studies that didn't reflect the movement of real money or even the live movement of phony money (what might be happening here). They had big fake returns that were hedged via 20/20 hindsight.

However, there is another issue you are alluding to that cannot be honorably resolved. For example, since I have been 29 years old for lots of years then maybe that is why I invest the way I do. You are a prime example. You stated you can no longer invest like you did a few decades ago. Makes sense. Losing 20% of your holdings at your first 29th year is really different than losing 20% of your holdings in your 21st 29th year, eh:cheesy:. So, yeah, the pups around here - and the very experienced market watchers - can and probably should hang around in the pure equity funds and can gamble with fast moves. I wouldn't do it, but it doesn't really hurt. The rest of us are on the slow train.

Finally, there are some very savvy folks at the bottom of this year's AT.

Don't count them out. They may not win a mug but the market moves as the market moves.
They take risks, but often those risks pan out. Check last years returns (and previous years returns) on those folks.

OBXTrader
09-08-2014, 06:19 PM
I am actually learning a great deal from this thread in a short period of time. Thank you to all for contributing.

Handballer
09-11-2014, 07:58 PM
My AT account has always reflected my TSP account. Even in retirement.

jkenjohnson
12-17-2014, 08:15 AM
If the AT is correct, only 52 people have double digit gains so far this year. Last year I made 19.53%. This year I will lucky to break 5.0% - pathetic. :mad:

kave
12-17-2014, 08:27 AM
Last year I made 19.53%. This year I will lucky to break 5.0% - pathetic. :mad:
JKJ In my view those 2 year returns average out 12.25%/ year! I'll take that avg all the way to the retirement patio swing!! Congratulations!!

WorkFE
12-17-2014, 08:28 AM
Could be worse. There are 8 folks with double digit losses.:worried:

burrocrat
12-17-2014, 08:32 AM
Could be worse. There are 8 folks with double digit losses.:worried:

i will be #9 here in a few days as a result of my cavalier bank walking ways if mr. market keeps having his way with me.

jkenjohnson
12-17-2014, 09:00 AM
JKJ In my view those 2 year returns average out 12.25%/ year! I'll take that avg all the way to the retirement patio swing!! Congratulations!!

Good point. I guess I should be happy.

burrocrat
12-17-2014, 09:16 AM
my biggest fear about retirement, besides if i live long enough to retire, is that there will not be someone there who loves me enough to change my bedpan.

czapor1967
12-17-2014, 09:16 AM
My AT reflects my real TSP. Each move I make is a 3 part process: First: Allocation change Second: Contribution change to reflect the new allocation Third: AT change.
.

same goes for me... I don't understand why anyone would have a false AT, it doesn't make sense to me. unless you're trying to figure out the would've, could've, should've moves, but to me that just makes it lame for those of us who don't do that. maybe, try figuring that out on your own instead of taking up space... just my opinion! :D

jkenjohnson
12-17-2014, 09:38 AM
my biggest fear about retirement, besides if i live long enough to retire, is that there will not be someone there who loves me enough to change my bedpan.

If you have enough money, you won't have to worry about it.

jkenjohnson
12-17-2014, 09:40 AM
same goes for me... I don't understand why anyone would have a false AT, it doesn't make sense to me. unless you're trying to figure out the would've, could've, should've moves, but to me that just makes it lame for those of us who don't do that. maybe, try figuring that out on your own instead of taking up space... just my opinion! :D

Mine is 1-1.5% low because I forgot to enter an previous IFT in the AT. If you forget a couple of times, like me, it can really throw your performance numbers off.

burrocrat
12-17-2014, 09:49 AM
If you have enough money, you won't have to worry about it.

well that ain't ever going to happen.

jkenjohnson
12-17-2014, 09:54 AM
well that ain't ever going to happen.

Maybe you should look for a new wife? Naw, never mind it's not worth it.

Cactus
12-17-2014, 10:15 AM
If the AT is correct, only 52 people have double digit gains so far this year. Last year I made 19.53%. This year I will lucky to break 5.0% - pathetic. :mad:Last year was a lot easier to make money. Even I was double digit last year. This year it's my contrarian indicator that is double digit while I'm negative and pushing for the bottom of the AT.

burrocrat
12-17-2014, 10:26 AM
Maybe you should look for a new wife? Naw, never mind it's not worth it.

that's what broke me the last time.

OBXTrader
01-06-2015, 11:40 AM
Big moves made by members yesterday and today. Still trying to wrap my brain around the risk of going from 100% G Fund to 100% S Fund with real live retirement savings vs. TSPtalk dollars. If it's only 10% of your "real" portfolio maybe it's no big deal.

BichonFreeze
01-06-2015, 11:52 AM
I just started last year and kept forgetting to put in my trades before deadlines because I was either on the road or busy with life events (holidays/buying a house/getting married). One of those trades made a big difference because I gained 2% in one day.

So the AT had me at -0.50%, but really I had a return a bit more than 2%. Nothing to boast, but glad it wasn't in the red.

OBXTrader
01-06-2015, 12:14 PM
I was locked out of a trade until January 2nd and if I dumped my 6.26% TSP gain from 2014 into the S Fund, that would give me a frowny face today. As a conservative investor, I am more about risk management than picking exact days to enter and exit (market timing). As I posted elsewhere, I would have been up about 12% for 2014 if I had gone aggressive instead of L Funds, so satisfied with days/in out of market.


I just started last year and kept forgetting to put in my trades before deadlines because I was either on the road or busy with life events (holidays/buying a house/getting married). One of those trades made a big difference because I gained 2% in one day.

So the AT had me at -0.50%, but really I had a return a bit more than 2%. Nothing to boast, but glad it wasn't in the red.

Maricar19
01-12-2015, 07:42 PM
No, autotracker does not reflect my real TSP account.

Maricar19
02-21-2015, 12:28 PM
No, autotracker does not reflect my real TSP account.

The statement above refers to 2014.
As of 2/20/2015, I have diligently updated my IFTs in auto tracker.
I realize updating AT is much easier in tracking my IFTs and loss/gains than do my convoluted math.

wwwtractor
02-23-2015, 10:35 AM
My autotracker generally matches my real money but I recently pulled all my money out of TSP and I match contributions and invested always.

nasa1974
02-23-2015, 11:11 AM
The AutoTracker is nothing more than a tool or a reference that you can use to compare with other members. Does the AutoTracker have to reflect your real TSP moves? NO! But then you are doing yourself and those using the AutoTracker a disservice. By using the AutoTracker correctly it is a good reference on how your real TSP account is doing percentage wise on a daily and monthly basis. You're not forced to use it, but why not take advantage of a great learning tool and why not use it correctly

Just my 2 cents.

offroad
03-04-2015, 03:15 PM
If you forget to update your autotracker just once (did this a couple times) , you are off for the rest of the year. so autotracker is not correct for me. there is no correction for a data entry mistake. or do I have that wrong? If there was a correction possible, then it is worth it to maintain autotracker.

nasa1974
03-04-2015, 03:48 PM
If you forget to update your autotracker just once (did this a couple times) , you are off for the rest of the year. so autotracker is not correct for me. there is no correction for a data entry mistake. or do I have that wrong? If there was a correction possible, then it is worth it to maintain autotracker.


That's a great question for Tom. If anyone can answer that question he can.

Cactus
03-05-2015, 10:35 AM
As I understand it, the AT was started to keep people honest about their trades. Before the AT people would brag about their excellent IFT moves after the fact and others would question if they had really made those IFT decisions at the time. The AT was set up to make those IFT decisions real time and prove that you really are that good. As such the AT isn't so much a measure of your current TSP distribution but a measure of IFT timing. Tom already lets you make corrections to a trade an hour or so after the deadline. I don't think you can go back and make corrections for a bunch of past trades as that would defeat the original purpose for the AT.

OBXTrader
08-21-2015, 06:36 PM
Bringing this back up. I see a lot people concerned about their ranking on the Auto-tracker. My gut tells me a lot of these aggressive moves in and out are still not with real money, but TSP Talk money for fun and sport. What say you?

I only had 8.5 short years to contribute to TSP and did not max out my contributions during that time. It's real money on the tracker for me. My whopping 4 plus percent is real money in the bank which feels pretty good. I exited all my positions on July 31st. So far this year is about a 3.5% year to date in all retirement accounts and I am OK with that.

Might take a TSP position next week to get myself setup for September.

burrocrat
08-21-2015, 06:46 PM
my tsptalk trades are mirrored with mine and the gov's free money in my real $ tsp account. i did not even contribute for several of the years of the 9 i have been eligible for the free 5% match.

to be quite honest, i expect to die before i get old. hell, it was only a few years ago i realized i might actually make it to 45. but that was mainly due to past life choices and a healthy respect for plans that always going wrong at some point. now i am going to smack the crap out of the market and roll it over good for some riches. ahhh yeah.

that's the plan, man.

FogSailing
08-21-2015, 07:18 PM
Good question. I've followed TSP Talk for a long time....I think since about 2005 or 2006. I'm glad we have the Tracker and abide by the Tracker rules. I've never been in the top group, not a real aggressive trader/investor and have found it's just an easy way for me to keep a tag on where I am amongst a bunch of other like minded "fed-e-rally" trading geeks. I've always enjoyed the Tracker and find it a useful tool in gaging where my thinking is compared to others. You may be right that some use the system incorrectly, but I see the most interesting strategies looking over the Tracker and it often helps me to make my mind up. The one thing I wish the Tracker reported on is the Median Group in the Tracker. Ocean's updates discuss the Top guys, the Bottom guys and the whole herd. I wish we had some data on the Median group.

FS

Boghie
08-21-2015, 08:26 PM
AutoTracker is accurate for me. Early on I missed a few entries by a day because I didn't really understand the timing - but the difference is minimal.

For me, any difference is the result of my contributions gaining or declining over the year. That is the compounding of earnings - or the buffer of buying low... The AT cannot really track on that...

nnuut
08-21-2015, 10:31 PM
The tracker is GREAT it gives you and the others that participate a pretty accurate idea of how you are doing with your market moves and compares your gains or losses with theirs. what more do you want, it's on a daily basis and reflects weekly, monthly and yearly gains or losses based on your input, AND IT'S FREE!!!!!. I haven't seen anything better.

PessOptimist
08-22-2015, 12:27 AM
Bringing this back up. I see a lot people concerned about their ranking on the Auto-tracker. My gut tells me a lot of these aggressive moves in and out are still not with real money, but TSP Talk money for fun and sport. What say you?

I only had 8.5 short years to contribute to TSP and did not max out my contributions during that time. It's real money on the tracker for me. My whopping 4 plus percent is real money in the bank which feels pretty good. I exited all my positions on July 31st. So far this year is about a 3.5% year to date in all retirement accounts and I am OK with that.

Might take a TSP position next week to get myself setup for September.
OBX, its real money for a lot of us taking in to consideration that the percentages change as the funds go up or down and may not get changed if IFTs are not made.

If it is a fantasy account for some, who cares? You can still see the moves they posted and see what that strategy would have resulted in. If it is an ego thing where you feel compelled to point out someone may be cheating, go for it. Personally I donít care if the top five or 50 or 600 are beating me.

Look at it as either a game or a tool. I prefer to see it as a tool and wouldnít give a rodentís rump about AT accounts reflecting reality or not. If 15% is based on fantasy IFTs so what? The moves posted even if not real would result in 15%. Examine them.
Good luck with your investments.

PO

OBXTrader
08-22-2015, 06:38 AM
Thanks everyone those are great opinions. I guess if we were Bogle-heads we would all have it in and never do an IFT at all.

A 100% move with "real" money into the I Fund would not work for me I suppose. If this was part of a large retirement plan and that was my international play, I guess it might work.

WorkFE
08-22-2015, 11:02 AM
I think most do mirror their account. However IFT's are reflected on the tracker but not additional contributions and match for those still working. So when you hold a long term position ether defensively (Bonds) or offensively (Stocks) it more than likely gets out of wack by small %'s.

Boghie
08-22-2015, 11:03 AM
OBX,

Those 100% moves are market timing moves. There are folks who believe in that and can make it happen and beat the market. Not many, but a few. There are folks who think long term investing in large equity and bond classes is casino gambling. They think putting money in the 500 largest American companies - all of them with Kleptocratic Kapitalist Pig Management who want to grow the company - is gambling as much as putting 100% of their money in Apple or ENRON. There moves look just like the market timers. They get in a bit to get the vig and bail out just as quick. Those really are not market timing moves.

Then there are those who set and forget. Those are the buy and holders. There problem is two fold: 1) Their allocation changes and they do not understand the risk inherent in those changes. What do you think a 60/40 split made in 2009 looks like now. And, 2) They eat the entire downside when the market dumps. Why eat that crap when you don't have to. Right now, for example, only 40% of my sandwich is crap - yummy:cheesy:. Their sandwiches are 70% crap. I feel so much better now:D.

Then there are those that float around a mid-point. The mid-point is designed for normal markets and should give good risk managed returns that meet your goals. If the market is going gonzo than one can choose an allocation with more risk and more return. If the market is dumping bail out a bit and eat around the crap in the sandwich. But have enough in the market so that when the buxom brunette at The Twisted Kilt takes that old crap sandwich off the table and presents some tasty chicken wings for your eating pleasure you get a good handful before everybody else dives in. Those market timing divers will be all-out when I am enjoying myself. Those early gains are often the tastiest!!!

userque
08-22-2015, 11:31 AM
In addition to what has been said, simply:

Just because another doesn't trade like someone else, doesn't imply that the other must be joking. :smile:

OBXTrader
08-22-2015, 11:39 AM
Thanks again, good insight folks.

For PessOptimist I was not bringing up for an ego thing, more just in disbelief that someone might risk potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars like that. I don't gamble and never had much money growing up, so was a "saver". As I get older, I guess I am getting more conservative so can't take the big risks nor can I contribute for over 5 years. I suppose if I had just $10K in the TSP, let it rip.

Lot's of folks hate the 2 IFT limit. But, at say Schwab if you trade within 30 days of buying a fund, they sock you with a 2% penalty. So, I like having two moves and then a move to G.

When I was on active duty I was contributing to the L2020 staring in 2001. It was a lot more stocks back then than now. I stuck with it and never changed because I always had more coming in to DCA.

Since I have been out of the military, I have done better than the L2020 moving on my own so that is a victory and Kudos to this forum for giving me the courage. I missed this big down draft and I am happy for that. My moves in and out have been pretty well timed, but conservative. Before I started the thread, I checked and if instead of L Funds I did C Fund, I would have doubled my return last year. But, that's coulda, woulda shoulda stuff.

I think Tom said look at the people on the tracker that year after year are at the top not the one's who got it right last year. Where are they now using the same system?

It's just hard for me wrap my brain around my entire TSP going into one sector all at once. All I have known is diversify. I guess I am a turtle in that regard.



OBX,

Those 100% moves are market timing moves. There are folks who believe in that and can make it happen and beat the market. Not many, but a few. There are folks who think long term investing in large equity and bond classes is casino gambling. They think putting money in the 500 largest American companies - all of them with Kleptocratic Kapitalist Pig Management who want to grow the company - is gambling as much as putting 100% of their money in Apple or ENRON. There moves look just like the market timers. They get in a bit to get the vig and bail out just as quick. Those really are not market timing moves.

Then there are those who set and forget. Those are the buy and holders. There problem is two fold: 1) Their allocation changes and they do not understand the risk inherent in those changes. What do you think a 60/40 split made in 2009 looks like now. And, 2) They eat the entire downside when the market dumps. Why eat that crap when you don't have to. Right now, for example, only 40% of my sandwich is crap - yummy:cheesy:. Their sandwiches are 70% crap. I feel so much better now:D.

Then there are those that float around a mid-point. The mid-point is designed for normal markets and should give good risk managed returns that meet your goals. If the market is going gonzo than one can choose an allocation with more risk and more return. If the market is dumping bail out a bit and eat around the crap in the sandwich. But have enough in the market so that when the buxom brunette at The Twisted Kilt takes that old crap sandwich off the table and presents some tasty chicken wings for your eating pleasure you get a good handful before everybody else dives in. Those market timing divers will be all-out when I am enjoying myself. Those early gains are often the tastiest!!!

Boghie
08-22-2015, 12:07 PM
It is good to sleep well...

The swingers with good bat speed and power do quite well. They maximize the information they have. I just know I cannot do it that way. The DCA'ers do quite well because the equity markets do quite well over longish periods of time. It ain't gambling. You have thousands of greedy managers and millions of greedy employees that have a stake in their businesses growth. There is a natural uptrend. But, if the uptrend in the gambling markets doesn't seem to track with the general uptrend in the economy than I really don't want to be around when the re-balance.

The problem occurs when something tamps the economy. Our economy isn't growing well, but it is growing. The equity markets did not really need a 57% collapse in 2008/09 so they really needed to play catch up with reality. And, reality growth is a moving uptrend so the catch-up is greater than the 57% hole. Where are we now? I thin the market is overpriced by a correction level and will adjust. But, I also think that equity investors will soon look past the Obama Presidency and see the potential for large economic recovery. Beat the swingers to the punch on that and you have a winner...

And, you

userque
08-22-2015, 12:11 PM
I think Tom said look at the people on the tracker that year after year are at the top not the one's who got it right last year. Where are they now using the same system?

Not sure of the point here. :blink: But some responses could be:



It is better to have loved, and lost; than to never have loved at all.
They are in the crowd, with everyone else. There is no mandate that once you do good one year, you must always go good each and every year.


That said, that statistic you submit does evidence that there is a lot of luck involved in the game. This is even truer in the professional poker world. With so many participants and trading styles, one or more folks should always be expected to do super well if only by chance.

Repeated trips to the top of the tracker (with respect to the market as a whole--i.e. doing well when the broader markets aren't) year after year, in different types of weather, evidences skill, imo.

Minnow
08-22-2015, 12:13 PM
When I first started here, I couldn't get the hang of the autotracker and the IFT cutoff and what it all meant, therefore; I doubt the AT reflected what i did (but remember we could move in and out with unlimited IFT's). Ever since I got the hang of it, then yes my autotracker account mirrors my TSP account -- for better or worse.