Jobs Report Contest - June '14

[tsptalk]

On Thursday, July 3, we get the June jobs report. Make your predictions on the number of jobs gained / lost in the month (and the unemployment rate)...


You can't pick a number already taken and each guess must be rounded to 1000's. (ex: +201,000, -14,000, +195,000, +176,000, -5,000, etc. - no 100's)

There's a travel mug up for grabs for the closest pick.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/mug10_small.gif

If the winner also guesses the unemployment number correctly, they can upgrade to the stainless mug if they'd like (so predict both)!

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/mug11_small.gif

We'll take predictions until 12:00 midnight ET this Wednesday night, July 2.


Thanks, and good luck!



Briefing.com's consensus estimates are looking for +210,000 and 6.3%.

[DouglasL]

+211,000 and 6.2%

[WorkFE]

+203,000 (6.2%)

[nnuut]

+ 221.000 (6.3)

[Frixxxx]

+214,000 6.3

[clester]

242,000

[Bquat]

248,000 (6.3)

[ILoveTDs]

205K @ 6.3

[Weather]

182K, 6.4

[slayer72]

206,000 at 6.3%

[jkenjohnson]

210,000 6.3%

[jpcavin]

215,000 6.3%

[ravensfan]

178,000...6.3%

[Firedog]

+190K and 6.4%

[RAM56]

+ 204,000
6.1%

[Tawny27]

+ 227,000
6.3%

[Birchtree]

+312,000
6.2%

[uscfanhawaii]

+255K, 6.2%

[tsptalk]

Contest closed. Thread will reopen in the morning.

[tsptalk]

Actual: +288,000 | 6.1%

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/07/03/june-jobs-report/12111319/


+312,000
6.2%

Winner!

Nice job!

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/mug10_small.gif

[Birchtree]

It's nice to occasionally be a winner - now if I can take in +$60K today I'll feel like one.

[jkenjohnson]

It's nice to occasionally be a winner - now if I can take in +$60K today I'll feel like one.

Way to go BT. Just 60K - you're headed for the poorhouse. :laugh:

[nnuut]

Good job BT, this reminds me of the Price is Right, the same strategies work here.:laugh:

[Bquat]

It's nice to occasionally be a winner - now if I can take in +$60K today I'll feel like one.You're always a winner. Right?:D

[James48843]

The economic recovery continues.

Thank you Mr. President.

[Birchtree]

"The Dow would be at 25,000 if Obama was a leader and cared about employing people."

[Weather]

Workforce participation rate lingers at 62.8. 37.2% of the population not in the workforce.

January 2009 the rate was 65.7%.

[nnuut]

I heard the number for those that have quit looking and don't count on the Jobs numbers today. 275,000 people left the unemployed catigory, how does that 288,000 new jobs look now? Cooking the books isn't what we want to see we want the real numbers, farce, scam, LIE!:cool:

[tsptalk]

I will post this in the political forum because we know this won't be the final word:

Obama did the rounds today talking about this year's fastest 6 months jobs growth since 1999. Is it a coincidence that people are getting jobs and the unemployment rate is dropping, after they ended the extended unemployment insurance in January? This was proven many times but we know it was not a popular move for one party because it doesn't win votes...

Unemployment drops after benefits decrease

With the Jobs Report, Fireworks Come Early | National Review Online (http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/381903/jobs-report-fireworks-come-early-robert-stein)

"... the end of extended unemployment insurance at the start of the year is also having an impact. Extended benefits kept some people from working and also kept others, who really didn’t intend to work, in the labor force (so they could keep getting benefits). The end of extended benefits should push down the jobless rate by both encouraging work among those who really want work and discouraging participation among those who really don’t. And, since the start of the year, we’ve had both faster payroll growth and a decline in the participation rate. Further supporting the case that ending extended benefits has helped: So far this year the median duration of unemployment has dropped to 13.1 weeks from 17.1 weeks, the steepest drop for any six months on record."


Copied to http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/politics/19186-*-go-get-job-already.html


Thanks for playing, everyone. Birchtree, if you'd like the Travel Mug please PM me your shipping info.