Transfer 5/20 for 5/21/04

[tsptalk]

With tomorrow being the Friday of expirations week, typically weaker than normal especially if Thursday is up, I am initiating a transfer this morning to put a little more into the G fund.

25% each in G, C, S and I.

So why not just put it all in the G fund? Earlier this year I may have done that. Now that my indicators are more positive, I am trying to keep a more bullish bias. If I am to err it will be on the side of being too bullish. If we get some weakness I will out perform the other stock funds. If we get strength I am not out of the game.

[tsptalk]

Evidently I will have to start sending the email alerts earlier. The email service tells me thatthe emails go out "usually" within one hour of the time scheduled. In the past they have gone out almost immediately. I thought by sending it at 11:15 this morning I would have plenty of time but I did not receive mine until 11:57. That won't due. I apologize again and will try to figure out a way to fix this.

Tom

I had planned to take a little off the table yesterday, got busy, and missed the time-although obviously susprised at how the market retreated big time. I thought today I would do the same, take some off the table, but I holding steady just 10% in G fund, the rest spread evenly (30%) across the equities. Happy aboutthe I fund slowsteady climb. Hoping for a sustained bounce today if not, I will take my chances and hold out for next week. I suspect the market will listen very intently to what Greenspan and company will say today. Still very bullish!!

[tsptalk]

More of the same today - Failed rallies and buying on dips.

The bulls are running early..hope they keep up this pace. I thought about trying to get a little more leverage out of the I fund by moving some dollars into it, from the C or S. But I think I will hold steady and wait until the dust settles. I'm itching to move my 10% out ofthe G fund....but I wait for the right situation and then BANG....move in for the "kill".



Currently:

G-10%

C-30%

S-30%

I-30%

Have a great weekend.

[tsptalk]

It will be interesting to see if selling picks up toward the close. A strong close would be a bigboost to investors. Friday's have been a run for the exit day.

The I fund looks good today. And with a good semiconductor report out, Japan's heavy tech index the Nikkei, may be ready to rebound from it's recent pullback. They don't resume trading until Sunday night however. I would consider adding more to the I fund based on this but I think I will stay put for now, and see what develops over the weekend.

[thinks]

Speaking about making changes. I'm wanting to move some more out of the G so since I've not moved it before the time today... did I miss it for Monday or is it different for Monday since it's the weekend and they have more time?

Also, a question for you Tom... since you share with us with your moves I was wondering.... how many years you have until you retire? (If you don't mind sharing) since that usually makes a difference in what one does or does it.?. With intaking all this information inI've been thinking......I'm wondering say for example when you recently took out of the I fund if that made an impact in your looking at conserving your gains, kwim?....instead of for someone (like me) who won't retire in many years if say we wouldn't move but keep in the I. Or do you suggest not even looking per say at the years till retirement but more on the learning curve for me. Any thoughts would be appreciated!

[tsptalk]

Speaking about making changes. I'm wanting to move some more out of the G so since I've not moved it before the time today... did I miss it for Monday or is it different for Monday since it's the weekend and they have more time?

I won't swear to it, but I am almost positive that Friday / Monday is treated the same way as other days, as in Friday by noon ET to get in for Monday


Also, a question for you Tom... since you share with us with your moves I was wondering.... how many years you have until you retire? (If you don't mind sharing) since that usually makes a difference in what one does or does it.?.

I don't know when I'll be able to retire. It may depend on my TSP account balance which I suppose is why I am so proactive with my account. I'm 40 now. Someone asked me a similar question via email the other day. I realized that it didn't matter to me how old I was as far as how I approach my account. Whether I was 25 or 50, I would be attacking the market the same way. When things look too high or my indicators tell me to get cautious, I get very conservative. If things are shaping up I get very aggressive. It is nice knowing we can just pull everything out in one or two days if things turn sour. Barring a 25% surprise crash, I think this approach can work for anyone who is still working. If you are retired and relying on TSP for income, I may rethink that strategy.


With intaking all this information in I've been thinking......I'm wondering say for example when you recently took out of the I fund if that made an impact in your looking at conserving your gains, kwim?....instead of for someone (like me) who won't retire in many years if say we wouldn't move but keep in the I. Or do you suggest not even looking per say at the years till retirement but more on the learning curve for me. Any thoughts would be appreciated!

I may be fooling myself, but ifsomeone can squeeze outan extraquarter or a half of a percent per month, or even just 1 or 2% a year over the market averages, the impact ontheir balance can be dramatic over several years. You all know about the magic of compound interest (Einstein said it was his greatest discovery :)). So if I pull out of the I fund for example, because I think the US dollar is ready to go up or that Japan is going to react to some news event etc., it is all an attempt to increase my return and/or minimize a loss whenever possible. For the average Joe who doesn't follow this stuff I would say just hold on, you will get your gains in the end. But if we are going to pay attention, we might as well try to take advantage of what we see. We can't always be right, but over time it may pay off.

That is just my opinion and the buy and holders would probably tell you differently.

Speaking about making changes. I'm wanting to move some more out of the G so since I've not moved it before the time today... did I miss it for Monday or is it different for Monday since it's the weekend and they have more time?
Yes, if you didn't get it in on time Friday, you will have to wait until Monday...if memory serves me right.

[Monique]

I have contributions allocations going into the C and S fund. Correct me if I am wrong...but with these share prices being down...I am buying more shares per pay period, which in the long run (hoping the prices rise eventually) I should make out better?

I find people getting into funds when they are doing well...example when S & I were over 13 dollars a share, and getting out when they are down. This doesnt really seem make sense to me. As a fellow employee told me...BUY WHEN THEY ARE ON SALE!

[Mr. Duke]

BeenG for 2 weeks, crawling the walls big time...Seriously ready to move back in ...not sure if 50/50 S/I or 100% I ....

what are the US dollar stats against overseas?...

Once again if I get in before midnight Sunday ....when will the transfer take place?

I have a friend that says the transfer takes place on Monday,..I find it always happens on Tuesday A.M.

[Rolo]

Tuesday...since the deadline is noon ET the prior business day. A transfer for Monday would have to be placed by Friday, noon.

You can quit scaling the walls...I wish I were in G for the past two weeks. :)

[tsptalk]

Monique wrote:
I have contributions allocations going into the C and S fund. Correct me if I am wrong...but with these share prices being down...I am buying more shares per pay period, which in the long run (hoping the prices rise eventually) I should make out better?

I find people getting into funds when they are doing well...example when S & I were over 13 dollars a share, and getting out when they are down. This doesnt really seem make sense to me. As a fellow employee told me...BUY WHEN THEY ARE ON SALE!



Welcome Monique.
Buying low and selling high sounds simple. The problem is high and low are relative and when good stocks (or funds in this case) go up, they don't always come down. If you liked the S fund, for example, whenit was $10.21 a share, but it jumped to $10.50 withoutyou and you thought you'd wait until it came down again, well the S fund may never see the $10 area again.

For a stock like EBAY to get to $80, it has to go through30 - 40 - 50 -60 - 70... You may be waiting for a sale that never comes, or it doesn't come until you've missed the main part of the move.

William O'Neil, the founder of Investor's Business Daily, wrote a book called How to Make Money In Stocks. It talks about astrategy called CANSLIM (which is an acronym) The "N" stands for new. One of his criteria is toonly buy stocks that are making a new high. Of course you don't buy just because it is making a new high, all of the other criteria needs to be in place as well. New also meant he liked to see the company doing something new.

I have my own criteria for getting in and out of funds and buying dips is usually agood idea. But it depends on the type of market condition we are currently in. Today's oscillatingmarket (swinging up and down) makes buying low and selling high a good strategy. We have been in a trading range for months now. Once the market starts trending upward again, it is probably best to just hold on to your stocks until the trend is broken. That's where you would buy strong funds and keep buying until it tells you differently.

Hope that helps.
Tom

Still bullish, and 30% C/S/I and a tiny 10% G. Early Indicators are looking good...hope this pans out through end of the day.

Frankly, I'm glad I am in the market at this particular time. If I was on the side lines (a good safe place given the turbulence), I would be still very nervous about getting in. But since I'm in, (the water is fine--for the aggressive types) and it wouldn't have been smart FOR ME, to get out. I'm glad for the little bounce the market has experienced. Looking formore this week.

[Monique]

Thanks Tom...

I am very happy I ran across this site. I've been wanting to be more active in my TSP investments and keeping up on the advice in these message boards will really help me to learn alot!

Monique :)

[tsptalk]

Your welcome Monique. Thanks for joining us!

Don't forget to read those daily market comments (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html). :u

Tom

I almost reneged on my own plan to stay pat. I thought about may be moving a little out of the C/S/I..just may be 10-15%..a little reajusting. But I didn't...I couldn't really think of a good reason...FOR ME...to make the change sooooo I stayed put.



Still 10 G, 30% C/S/I.......COME FELLAS MAKE SOME MONEY.