Transfer 5/19 for 5/20/04

[tsptalk]

I made a minor adjustment this morning. 10% G, 20% C, 35% S and 35% I fund.

Taking a bit off of the I fund which is really up big today. Volume appears to be good this morning but it's hard to tell this early.

[tsptalk]

I sent the email alerts at 11:30 ET butI still haven't received mine.(It's 11:48 now). I try to make a determination by 11:00 AM ET but sometimes the extra time helps me make a decision. The email systemI use allows you to schedule these email alertson the quarter hour. It seems like when I try to quickly get one out (at say 11:28, to meet the 11:30 run)they end up being delayed even more. I'd hate to send them out at 11:45. That could be alittle too close for comfort.

[tsptalk]

We're losing some steam here. Let's see what the "smart money" does (the last hour of trading as opposed to the first half hour of"emotional money" trading). The smart money indicator has been heading up lately.

Volume had lightened up after being pretty strong this morning. We need institutional investors (mutual funds, money managers etc.) stepping up now.

[tsptalk]

Amazing. The dow is down. So much for the smart money following through on the rally.

[ChuckBecker]

Tom,

This is wild. Can't go down, can't go up. I guess that's what "rangebound" means.

Chuck

[tsptalk]

The I fund price should be interesting today.

- The ^EFV quote of the EAFE index shows a gain of 2.44%.
- The EFA quote shows a 1% gain
- and the dollar was down today

All great news for those of us in the I fund today. But we know that these EAFE index managers have to make adjustments to these quotes before they report a final quote to the newspapers. Since all of the European and Asian markets were closed before the U.S. markets tanked, we may not get the gains to the extent that we are seeing on those current quotes. Either that or tomorrow they will get pounded down to adjust.

It should be interesting indeed, what we see at 8:00 PM ET when the fund prices areposted on the TSP.gov site.

[tsptalk]

I fund ended up being up 1.9% today.

[VictorPR]

Great job Tom........you really called it on the money (I Fund)...... continue your great work and allow us to make more money......Thanks:^

[tsptalk]

Thanks. But we better wait to see what happens Thursday in the I fund before I deserve a "great job".:? The international markets haven't had a chance to react to Wednesday's action yet. I feel a little better being 35% in the I fund tomorrow instead of 50% but it could still be ugly if something doesn't happen to offset the meltdown in the U.S. markets.

I apologize to those of you who may not have received the email alert on time. The most reliable way to get the changes is on this message board.

Tom

[WiseOne]

:? I have to question the need to reduce the "I" fund from 50% to 35% in lieu of the up tick today. Could this mean the "I" is ready for the rebound?

[tsptalk]

Welcome WiseOne!

When you roll the dice in the I fund you can have some very big days and some real bad days. After a nearly 3% pop in 2 days, being 50% in the I fund was a bit too aggressive for me. 35% is plenty right now. Maybe too much. The dollar is getting toward the lower end of it's upward trading channel (strong dollar means weaker I fund prices). I'd love to get one more positive day at 35%.By Friday and Monday I may take even more out.

Also, I believe we've only had 3 up days in row [in the I fund] twice since late February. Just a bit above my tolerancelevel right now. Good luck if you are still in.

Thanks for joining us.
Tom

[tsptalk]

tsptalk wrote:
Thanks. But we better wait to see what happens Thursday in the I fund before I deserve a "great job".:? The international markets haven't had a chance to react to Wednesday's action yet. I feel a little better being 35% in the I fund tomorrow instead of 50% but it could still be ugly if something doesn't happen to offset the meltdown in the U.S. markets.


The I fund was down 1.3% today (Thursday). :v Kinda saw thatcoming but because the sell off in the U.S. market came late on Wednesday (after the deadline), we didn't get a change to lighten up more on that fund.

[tsptalk]

:'The I fund was only down .55% not 1.3%. A little better. :)

[tsptalk]

WiseOne wrote:
:? I have to question the need to reduce the "I" fund from 50% to 35% in lieu of the up tick today. Could this mean the "I" is ready for the rebound?
The dollar is dropping and the I fund is looking real good so far today. You are the WiseOne!

[WiseOne]

:)Thanks for the thoughts Mr. Admin. I get this gut feeling that this market will continue to be wishy-washy for some time yet. The Iraq situation, price of gasoline and its ripple effect, a presidential election that appears to be a coin toss between Bush and Kerry - you may be right to take some off the table of C,S and I and place even more in G for now.