Jobs Report Contest April'14

[tsptalk]

On Friday, May 2, we get the April jobs report. Make your predictions on the number of jobs gained / lost in the month (and the unemployment rate)...



You can't pick a number already taken and each guess must be rounded to 1000's. (ex: +201,000, -14,000, +195,000, +176,000, -5,000, etc. - no 100's)

There's a travel mug up for grabs for the closest pick.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/mug10_small.gif

If the winner also guesses the unemployment number correctly, they can upgrade to the stainless mug if they'd like (so predict both)!

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/mug11_small.gif

We'll take predictions until 12:00 midnight ET this Thursday night, May 1.


Thanks, and good luck!



Briefing.com's consensus estimates are looking for +210,000 and 6.6%.

[erdude]

+217,000 and 6.7%

[ILoveTDs]

+214,000 6.6%

[RAM56]

+ 185,000 6.7%

[99percent]

+209,000

[userque]

+88,000 & 6.7%

[Frixxxx]

+22,000 6.9%

[robertbr1963]

203,000 and 6.7%

[DouglasL]

+ 195,000 6.7%

[ravensfan]

213,000 and 6.7%

[jb0441]

+223,000 6.7%

[Cathy57]

+189,000 / 6.5%

[exceed83]

202,000 & 6.6%

[clester]

200,000 even.

[jkenjohnson]

195,000

[nnuut]

212,000 6.5%

[Minnow]

150,000 6.8

[mar69]

212,000, 6.6%

[Weather]

+153,000 6.6%

[RealMoneyIssues]

230k and 6.5% (they like round numbers)

[weatherweenie]

190,000 6.7%

[Tawny27]

+ 177,000 6.6%

[Sensei]

+160,000, 6.7%

[wvango]

199,000

[DreamboatAnnie]

198,000 - 6.6%

[konakathy]

222,000 6.6%

[Beachcats]

200,000 6.6%

[uscfanhawaii]

+22,000 6.9%

Wow, Frixxxx.....so negative!! :blink:


Put me down for 192K, 6.7% :notrust:

[MrBowl]

+234,000 and 6.8%


There are two picks each of 195K, 200K, and 212K

[tsptalk]

Reminder that the deadline is midnight ET tonight.

[uscfanhawaii]

There are two picks each of 195K, 200K, and 212K


Beachcats, mar69, Jkenjohnson.....you guys better revise your picks. ASAP! :cheesy:

(You only have a little over 2 hrs to go.)

[JTH]

215K

[tsptalk]

Contest closed. Thread will reopen after the report is released.

[tsptalk]

195,000
Already taken by douglasL.

[tsptalk]

212,000, 6.6%
Already taken by nnuut.

[tsptalk]

200,000 6.6%
Already taken by Buster.

[tsptalk]

Actual: +288,000 and 6.3%

MrBowl wins!


+234,000 and 6.8%

Nice job! Please PM me your shipping info to claim your trophy.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/mug10_small.gif

[BichonFreeze]

Congrats MrBowl! Very strong report today. Not sure many saw this coming.

[JTH]

Wow, this is way above expectations, I wonder what numbers they fudged this time :blink:

[James48843]

Wow, this is way above expectations, I wonder what numbers they fudged this time :blink:

The numbers are not fudged. They are REAL.


Go USA.

[tsptalk]

It's a little distorted and the market isn't soaring on the data. The +288,000 is impressive plus there were solid upward revisions in Feb. and March, but 806,000 people left the work force - the most ever since they started keeping track of that, and that accounts for the 6.3% unemployment rate. And when 800K leave the workforce, of course some have to be replaced.

The reason the market might like this will be because of the +288K, but also because investors may think the Fed knows this is not a great report and will keep rates low. But the lack of a big rally means this is not as good as it appears.

[MrBowl]

Thanks!

Interesting report and reaction. Lots of good and bad mixed in. Lowest participation rate since 1978, but lots of jobs added and upward revisions to previous months.

Do investors think the Fed will hike interest rates sooner?

[tsptalk]

Do investors think the Fed will hike interest rates sooner?
I doubt it. If we don't get 800,000 leaving the workforce next month, the unemployment rate could easily jump back to 6.6%.

With so many baby boomers retiring, it's getting tough to judge these jobs reports.

[BichonFreeze]

Thanks!

Interesting report and reaction. Lots of good and bad mixed in. Lowest participation rate since 1978, but lots of jobs added and upward revisions to previous months.

Do investors think the Fed will hike interest rates sooner?

Gosh I hope not, I'm racing against the clock to buy my house! Keep those rates low flagnabbit!

[James48843]

It's a little distorted and the market isn't soaring on the data. The +288,000 is impressive plus there were solid upward revisions in Feb. and March, but 806,000 people left the work force - the most ever since they started keeping track of that, and that accounts for the 6.3% unemployment rate. And when 800K leave the workforce, of course some have to be replaced..

Just the beginning- as you may recall those reports about the ACA allowing people to finally leave the workforce


because they no longer needed to stay employed just to keep health insurance.

That means the Affordable Care Act (ACA)will allow some to leave the workforce who don't need to stay anymore just for the insurance.

[nnuut]

Does Not Compute - Does Not Compute!????/////// 284552845528456

[James48843]

Looks like the current Administration has been pretty successful at creating policy that leads to stabilizing and growing the economy, eh?

28458

Much better than the previous guy.

Looks like both Private sector and the complete job market continue to improve.

Just THINK how much better things would be if we could just get some of those job creating bills through the do-nothing Congress.

Where are the jobs? They're right here | MSNBC (http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/where-are-the-jobs-theyre-right-here)

[tsptalk]

James never misses an opportunity to campaign. ;)

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/050214b.gif

Certainly positive and stable but the participation rate distorts this.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/050214c.gif


Today's report was "dumb money" good - meaning the dumb money is buying this as a strong report, while the smart money is selling to them. But that's just a short-term impact because we know stocks don't necessarily follow the economic growth. After all, first quarter GDP growth was a pathetic 0.1% but fortunately for the stock market, companies are still able to turn a profit and some indices are near new highs. It's tough to put all this together. Weak economy, good earnings = stock market highs, but for how long?

[clester]

But also no wage growth. Companies are keeping profits to themselves and not giving raises.

[ravensfan]

Looks like the current Administration has been pretty successful at creating policy that leads to stabilizing and growing the economy, eh?

28458

Much better than the previous guy.

Looks like both Private sector and the complete job market continue to improve.

Just THINK how much better things would be if we could just get some of those job creating bills through the do-nothing Congress.

Where are the jobs? They're right here | MSNBC (http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/where-are-the-jobs-theyre-right-here)

Tell that to your children when they're working for the Chinese...Barrack Obama the great economist. 0.01 GDP, quite an accomplishment!

[Birchtree]

FWM,

For an intelligent person I fail to see how you can be so full of nonsense - even Goofy knows the 300% market gain has been mostly Fed QE initiatives. obama has done nothing but suppress and over regulate the economy so much so that business refuses to expand hiring or cap ex spending until the misfit is out of office. Thus with continued slow growth and low inflation one can expect this bull market to continue for perhaps another decade. And that means I'll continue to be blessed with income inequality because I'm making mine.

[nnuut]

HeY!! I thought this thread was about a contest, you know guessing the Jobs Report number? Turning into a political thread was not the intention. Take it down the street please.