Response to Vectorman

[Red Pill Market Analyst]

Vectorman, I do not know what happened to our posts. Maybe it's my lack of or inability to work these pages but you are correct Sir, patience, but more imortantly, understanding the trend is key to surviving the future.

We are in the midst of a new paradigm shift in understanding "value"my friend throughout the world, only those with eyes to see will understand our journey.

Ask yourself, why did the Euro come into existence?

[tsptalk]

Hi Red Pill. Thanks for joining us. Is this the post you lost... http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/view_topic.php?id=2092&forum_id=14&jump_to=28159#p 28159

Tom

[Red Pill Market Analyst]

Yes it is TSPTalk, thank you for the quick retrieval. I tried to respond earlier and was unable to, only to think that, I was losing what little of my mindI have left.

I then realized that when I originally registered with your site it wasthrough AOL and I amable to respond with no problem.Earlier today, I tried responding (different compu, different browser) but was not able to get through andthought, heck, TSP has done gave me the boot and I'm only two posts in.

Your focus is a little different then mine when it comes to trying to figure out just what in the heck these markets are all about. I concentrate and frustrate(how I do enjoythe challenge)myself with trying to understand the forex, bond and commodity markets. You on the other hand good Sir endure the pain attributable in tryingto understandthe markets that directly affect the various funds in the TSP.

I can assure you that I can't think of too many other things that are more humbling then trying to discern these markets. This is why I personally take on very few people when it comes to sharing anything that I might have learned over the years because it is such a difficult endeavor.:^

Keep at it and a continued good luck.

Now what did I do with that crystal ball???

Watch the Dollar Index as we're seeing some real volatility as of late. The moves in the Euro/Dollar exchange rate have been interesting to say the least. A real battle taking place between these currencies.

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/graph/liverealtimequotes.asp

Here's a pretty good link to watch the real time action for free.

That's all for right now, will try and get back soon.

[Show-me]

All right! A currency guy on the board.

[tsptalk]

Red Pill Market Analyst wrote:
I can assure you that I can't think of too many other things that are more humbling then trying to discern these markets. This is why I personally take on very few people when it comes to sharing anything that I might have learned over the years because it is such a difficult endeavor.:^
I hear that. It's refreshing to have someone new show up and say that. Many of the bold newcomers tell us how they are up 35% this year and have managed to avoid all pullbacks and jump in on every rally. Then, if they post their results, they join us humbled investors.

Good luck,
Tom

[smine]

I was going to comment on the I fund but losing all gains accrued in 2 weeks has left me wondering what "signals" one to buy the I fund?

[Dave M]

Smine, the I-fund is volatile. I know next to nothing about it other than it has performed well over the last few years as seen in its price. For these reasons I included it in my mix but at half-weight. But why oh why did you sell it at such a loss? The idea is to hold on and let it vaccillate, which it will do. Now you have to make that up elsewhere. But where?

Remember Saraho? Find some of her remarks made earlier; she knew the I-fund.

Dave

[smine]

How right you are! I bought and sold it following another. Bad idea. Thought it was going to go even lower. Really didn't expect to see a loss of 27 cents in 2 days. I usually don't sell a loss. We'll make it up, Dave. Just so frustrating at times you know. Today it regained 7 cents;)

[SkyPilot]

Red Pill, Welcome...

The I fund may best be played as a trend fund, as dailytrading is so hard to do in TSP. As long as the trend signals are positive, then daily or even weekly downturns are not the best ways to determine a sell-off is inidicated. Usually end up selling just before a big rally run-up.

Biggest issue with the I fund is that is usually reacts inversly to the movement of the USD, and if you track it following EAFE, the daily percentage must be reconciled with the fair value of the USD after trading concludes. So, while the EAFE may have done one thing, until the USD is figured in, there is no way to know really how well or bad the fund is doing at any particular time. I check in on the relationship of the USD to Euro as a barometer during the course of a day, and that seems to be a reasonable predictor.

Again, review comments by Saraho for a stronger sense and understanding of themysterious ways of the I fund.

[Red Pill Market Analyst]

SkyPilot, think of a huge component of the I fund as a way to short the dollar on your terms. No thinking involved here. Just correlate this component up with the dollar index (the most watched index in the world) and make your move.

I did the OLE Homer Simpson routine once I actually read what the I fund was about approximately 1 3/4 yr. ago. At that time I moved 100% in without giving it a second thought. It will remain that way the rest of my career. This is a give me good Sir.

The other part is a function of various stock indexes throughout Europe, UK and Japan with a Fareast kicker. This is a little trickier to discern but not really. As the currencies in these countries appreciate Vs the dollar their oil (energy) bill goes down thereby making them more competitive in world trade.

Oh, did I mention that a HUGE component of the earnings derived from the companies listed in these indexes are oil companies?

I ask you good Sir, is the petro-dollar deal being supplanted by the petro-euro deal?

[SkyPilot]

Quite so, good fellow... as you say.

Then, going forward through the end of the year, we see that the USD is traditionally weaker, so along with oil on the uptrend and the dollar likely to edge lower, especially if rate hikes slow, the I fund might be the play for the last several months of 05.

Cheerio!