Jan '14 Jobs Report Contest

[tsptalk]

On Friday, February 7, we get the January jobs report. Make your predictions on the number of jobs gained / lost in the month??

You can't pick a number already taken and each guess must be rounded to 1000's. (ex: +201,000, -14,000, +195,000, +176,000, -5,000, etc. - no 100's)

There's a travel mug up for grabs for the closest pick.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/mug10_small.gif

If the winner also guesses the unemployment number correctly, they can upgrade to the stainless mug if they'd like (so predict both)!

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/mug11_small.gif

We'll take predictions until 12:00 midnight ET this Thursday night, Feb 6.

Thanks, and good luck!


Briefing.com's consensus estimates are looking for +175,000 and 6.7%.

[jkenjohnson]

181,000 7.0%

[Bquat]

134,000

[Viva_La_Migra]

+165,000 6.8% using the "smoke and mirrors" method

Real unemployment is closer to 14.9%, IMO.

[BichonFreeze]

+162,000, 6.9%

[Weather]

+105K 6.5%

[Handballer]

115,000 for real

[MrJohnRoss]

+137,000

6.6%, mostly due to the labor force participation rate dropping.

[CrabClaw]

+157,000

6.6%

[k0nkuzh0n]

+165000, unemployment at 6.4%

[ExtremeWX]

+123,000

[bmneveu]

+169,000

6.7%

[MrBowl]

Maybe some good news to turn things around?

+222,000 and 6.9%

[RealMoneyIssues]

202k and 6.7%

[amoeba]

118,000

6.6%

[Sensei]

+151,000 jobs, 6.8% unemployment

[DreamboatAnnie]

+145,000

6.5%

[Tawny27]

+ 125,000

6.7%

[pokerstar629]

+176,000

6.7%

[slayer72]

174,000 6.7%

[moonshine]

158000, 6.7

[RAM56]

+ 146,000

6.7 %

[weatherweenie]

+173,000 6.7%

[tsptalk]

+165000, unemployment at 6.4%
Uh, oh! Viva already picked 165,000.

[k0nkuzh0n]

Uh, oh! Viva already picked 165,000.
Then 165001! Price is right style :laugh:

[WorkFE]

+135350

[tsptalk]

There are not too many rules, but the last two picks both break them. :)


You can't pick a number already taken and each guess must be rounded to 1000's. (ex: +201,000, -14,000, +195,000, +176,000, -5,000, etc. - no 100's)

[jonfresno]

How about 140,000?

[RealMoneyIssues]

203K
6.7%

HEY :mad:

[konakathy]

104,000

6.7%

[WorkFE]

1000

[Minnow]

207,000 6.6%

[SWAVET]

HEY :mad:
If someone:mad:, can I change my number?:p

Hey RMI,

I did opposite what I pick the number in here and IFT out of I fund (too early) yesterday for a lost. As I expect SPY will hit $169 target soon (maybe Jobs Report will do it).

[clester]

187,000

[tsptalk]

If someone:mad:, can I change my number?:p
You can change your predictions up until the deadline, if you'd like. Just use "Reply with Quote" of your old pick, and post the new one..

[Intrepid_Timer]

215,000 and 6.7%

235,000

[ILoveTDs]

172,000 and 7.0%

[SWAVET]

203K
6.7%
160K
6.7%

[Birchtree]

280K - that should blow the doors wide open.

[gronk007]

191000
7.1%

245000, 6.8%

[robo]

301k - and we will see a large gap up for stocks that gets filled in the next few months.

[RealMoneyIssues]

160K


If someone:mad:, can I change my number?:p

Hey RMI,

I did opposite what I pick the number in here and IFT out of I fund (too early) yesterday for a lost. As I expect SPY will hit $169 target soon (maybe Jobs Report will do it).

Winner...

Anyway, do you really think we are going to hit 169 before 179? wow...

You don't have to change your number, I was ribbing you... I'll let you decide

[nnuut]

166,000

[Bronco07]

187,500 / 6.9%

[tsptalk]

Contest closed. Will open thread again after the report is announced.

[tsptalk]

Actual Numbers: +113,000 | 6.6%


118,000

6.6%

We have a winner! amoeba

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/mug11_small.gifhttp://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/mug10_small.gif

And the unemployment number was correct so you have your choice of Trophies, err, Travel Mugs.

Nice job, amoeba! PM me your shipping info to claim your prize!

Thanks for playing, everyone!

[jkenjohnson]

And we went down down down, the ring of fire, the ring of fire, the ring of fire. Another losing day, but congrats on winning your cup.

[gronk007]

I will not be surprised if we close up today. At least for the short term the Slow Stochastics and Bollinger Bands for SPX would suggest a continued turn upwards. However using a weekly period those same indicators suggest there is room below. My guess...and it is a guess is short term rise followed by another modest correction to continue pricing in the QE tapering.

[Intrepid_Timer]

Wait a minute, I thought the goal was to double the actual jobs number. Bummer.................:cheesy: Congrats amoeba!

[nnuut]

Congratulations amoeba, good call!:D

[amoeba]

Congratulations amoeba, good call!:D


Thank you, thank you, thank you - PM sent to the moderator on where to send the prize:

This is about my first or second guess ever at this contest; quite the range of guesses - guys; I sent a PM to the moderator - who I assume distributes the prize/winnings. yippee. a stainless steel mug; to be proudly displayed alongside my 2008 t-shirt (top couple partial year return winner or something like that).

Based on my confidence in my guess - and the need to check som salamander traps friday morning - I was expecting a correction follow-through/wash-out on friday as a result of this lame number, and put a small bet in my TSP (15% into equity funds) - but consistent with my last year of IFT's, the market rocketed up.


I look forward to the mug.....and thank you all again.

[nnuut]

Thank you, thank you, thank you - PM sent to the moderator on where to send the prize:

This is about my first or second guess ever at this contest; quite the range of guesses - guys; I sent a PM to the moderator - who I assume distributes the prize/winnings. yippee. a stainless steel mug; to be proudly displayed alongside my 2008 t-shirt (top couple partial year return winner or something like that).

Based on my confidence in my guess - and the need to check som salamander traps friday morning - I was expecting a correction follow-through/wash-out on friday as a result of this lame number, and put a small bet in my TSP (15% into equity funds) - but consistent with my last year of IFT's, the market rocketed up.


I look forward to the mug.....and thank you all again.
I forwarded your PM to TOM!:laugh:

[tsptalk]

PM sent to the moderator on where to send the prize:

I look forward to the mug.....and thank you all again.

Got it! I will get that out asap!

[SWAVET]

Winner...

Anyway, do you really think we are going to hit 169 before 179? wow...

You don't have to change your number, I was ribbing you... I'll let you decide

The number was a lot lower than anyone expected, but the stock is going opposite direction. So far not a good year with TSP, at least I recoup on my regular account especially with AAPL with $20K gains with ZERO out of pocket for the last two weeks (as I mentioned my trades as Winner). In addition, VNDA that I apply as income strategy* that bring my cost average down to $9.70 or I collect an average $1 per contact/10% per month.

Income strategy => Buy shares then sell call contacts, example that I bought 1,000 shares of VNDA for $10.50 then sold 10 contacts for $11 @ $1 this bring my average cost down to $9.50, so when the price hit $11 or more then I could collect $1.50 profit or 13% within a month or I roll over to the next month for $12, $13, $14, $15, $16, etc. to collect additional $1 (I mentioned my actual cost & my trades as Winner as well).

So far because my balance with regular account is still low and able to hit my goal to increase an average 20% per month from the previous month balance for the last 14 months with all on OPTIONS.

I have 200 contact open on QQQ CALL APR 2014 $90 @.63. (current trade @ $1.05 with unrealized gain 65%), I bought this one based on unusual volume with 213K contracts bought @$.51 (total cost $10.86M) two days before I bought. If anyone want to get in at this time then go with calendar spread sell FEB 2014 for $.12/buy APR 2014 to bring the cost down around to $.93

While I'm typing I canceled a pending order for COST PUT FEB 14 $112/ MAR 07 $106 for $.05 credit from to Pending order COST PUT SELL FEB 14 $112 /BUY MAR 07 $107 for $.04 credit (collect $4 per contract for this with ZERO out of pocket) and the strategy indicates that I have more 80% chance to lock in any profit/0.29% max profit/ZERO max LOST. This trade for COST is hold above $112 by this Friday to lock in the max profit and it'll continue down after this week.

I have 33% cash with majority on margin.

[SWAVET]

Got fill for COST @ $.04 credit

Unusual volune 10K SPY backspread FEB 2014 buy $177 / sell (2x) $181 for a total cost around +/- $1.5M with breakeven around $178.50 area, the strategy indicate only 41% chance for profit. I'm not going to risk, but maybe quick play on short term FEB 14 $179 CALL close out tomorrow as I noticed TUESDAY more up than down.

****************

The info below is explain what I applied on VNDA as I previously post on another tread that I received email from fedweek.com couple year ago & I applied only the last 3 months (I used strategy from trademonster.com to get analyze on % profit/max lost/max profit and trade with +80% for any profit):

*Academic studies support the use of an S&P 500 "buy-write" strategy. Here’s how the process works:
* You invest in an S&P 500 index mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF).
In essence, you’re buying the stocks in that index.
* You sell "covered calls" against the index. The buyer of these options can buy the index from you at given price. As an options seller, you get cash upfront but relinquish the chance of significant gains.
Research indicates that call options are usually overpriced. Thus, sellers of calls generally do better than buyers of calls. Those who sell them tend to make more money than those who buy.
One study found that a buy-write strategy would have generated a 13 percent profit over the past 10 years. Investors who simply bought and held the S&P 500 would have lost 2 percent. Moreover, the buy-write strategy has not been as volatile as a buy-and-hold approach.
Implementing a buy-write strategy on your own is not easy. However, you can buy ETFs and exchange-traded notes (ETNs) that replicate the strategy for investors:
They include iPath CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index (BWV), IQ Investor Advisors' S&P 500 Covered Call Fund (BEP), and PowerShares' S&P 500 BuyWrite Portfolio (PBP)."