Today

[tsptalk]

The I fund giveth, and the I fund fund taketh away.

No move today.

[smine]

Any reason to go to F?

[tsptalk]

Why do you say that? I'm thinking of using F instead of G if I do get out. Although risky, bond rates are way ahead of themselves.

[smine]

Just looked like a thought!

[tsptalk]

The dollar looks strong so far today against the pound and the euro. Not good for the I fund although we are seeing a little rebound in the EAFE.

[tsptalk]

I added this to today's comments as the results came out.

The new AAII investor sentiment survey showed 33% bullish, 43% bearish. This is good news for those looking for a bottom.

[puertorico]

{bubbles ]it's that, like we are in the air or we going down ?

wHat exactly they means ?

[We're in a bubbles] {?}

[tsptalk]

A bubble means prices are high, dangerously high and in danger of bursting. Techs in 2000, the current housing market, tulips in the 1600's etc., all bubbles.

Where are youhearing it PR?

[tsptalk]

The choppiness I talked about in today's comments and that we are seeing today is tough to play. It's happening intraday so it's difficult to get a read on when to get in or out.

[puertorico]

I was seeing CNBC,and there was a comments...

about LARRY CUTLOW.

The comment sayd...

...we're in a bubbles...Shame on Larry Cutlow and his fallower:?

[They talking about the guy in the tv program crammer/cutlow]:?

[tsptalk]

I wonder what he was talking about. Housing? Oil and gas prices? I can't picture him saying the stock market is in a bubble. I repect Kudlow's views and I'm curious now.

I know his partner, Cramer, likes the market right now.

If anyone else heard what he was talking about can you please post it here?

Thanks

[puertorico]

I was not paying attention.Just when a heard "bubbles":shock:

[tsptalk]

smine wrote:
Any reason to go to F?
Did you go to F smine? It's having a nice day.

[tsptalk]

The market sure seems like it is coiling up for some sort of move. I wish I knew which way. The indicators say up but we are probably one more bad news story from another drop.

As I said, the indicators seem to say the downside is limited at the moment. But so many people seem to be expecting a bouncethat a bounce could be short lived. That is why I think today's comments (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive/comments_5_14_04.html)may tell the tale... A rally, a test (of the lows), then off to the races. The test after the rally will really put a scare in any remaining"weak" bullsremaining.

As some of you have been saying here, it may not be until the Fed does raise rates that the uncertainty is cleared and we can finally move on. Also the completion of democratic convention at the end of Julycould be another target date to get out of the way.

Tom

[ChuckBecker]

Hi Tom,

I feel a rally coming. What are you thinking in terms of how far/high it could reasonably go? 10% above where we are now? That'd put the S&P in the low 1200's. Does that seem right to you?

Thanks/Chuck

[tsptalk]

ChuckBecker wrote:
Hi Tom,

I feel a rally coming. What are you thinking in terms of how far/high it could reasonably go? 10% above where we are now? That'd put the S&P in the low 1200's. Does that seem right to you?

I hate to guess because that will guarantee it won't happen that way, but I was thinking more a short 2 to 3% rally to 1110-1120 area on the S&P before we come back down and test the lows again. Then, as I have been saying in the longer term (http://www.tsptalk.com/longer_term.html)comments all year, I believe we could see 20-30% gains in the second half of the year. I know it sounds a bit too optimistic now, but that's what my indicatorsshow me based on the current conditions.

[VictorPR]

I aggre with you and with the recents losses , I Fund, I can not continue to wait any longer since I have lost too much waiting for it to go back up....... Any suggestions ! ! !

[tsptalk]

This is a very personal decision for you. If you are not comfortable with losses then you should take a more conservative approach (more G fund).

If you heard me talk about "capitulation", you know it comes when you (and others)can't take it anymore and sell.

I don't plan to get out, if I do, not until we get a rally. I don't know when it will come, but they always do. I just hope it's before any more damage is done.

Good luck.
Tom

[tsptalk]

Monday morning blues. Several world events have sent our indices down hard this morning.Iraqi Governing Council President Izzedine Salim was killedthis morning by asuicide bomber.

Now I see a bit of buying as there are rumors of nerve gasbeing found in Iraq. I don't know if this is true or if the bulls are starting rumors to help stop the bleeding.

[tsptalk]

So far recent lows are holding. If I knew how the rest of the day was going to play out I would know better if I need to make a move. As long as those lows hold, I would look for an upside. If the lows break again, it could be another wave down.

[tsptalk]

I sure am envious of those of you who have some ammunition left (money in the G fund). It is mornings like this that make me want to be a buyer. But I'm out of bullets. I always seem to come to the party a little early. If I had G fund money to play with, I wouldconsider puttingat least some of it to work at this point.

[puertorico]

today 50 bond 50 stock

Tomorrow 100% stock

I hope not to be catching a falling knife :shock:

[tsptalk]

At least the bonds had a good day PR.

[JerBer]

I'm wanting to move all my money into hiding REAL bad right now, and Tom, you're wishing you had more in the G fund to move into stocks? Aren't you afraid it's going to keep spiraling down until there's (gulp) nothing left? You must have nerves of steel! :dude:

JerBer

[tsptalk]

JerBer wrote:
Aren't you afraid it's going to keep spiraling down until there's (gulp) nothing left? You must have nerves of steel! :dude:


I doubt the Dow is going to zero ;)

I may be getting a bit too aggressive but the more fear I see out there, the more I want to be in stocks. It's never easy to buy when things look like the way they do now.

I noticed the smart money indicatormade an upward turnlast week. You can't always read into the short term moves too much, but usually when the market goes down and the smart money index goes up (or vice versa), a change is not too far behind.

[Mr. Duke]

When I saw the futures this morning, Japan and China down over 350 pts I thought to myself perfect time to get in before 6 am to be effective Tuesday am...I'm sure it would have worked, but, I would have needed to get through Wednesday as well....I am predicting a Rally Tuesday.....however, I will stand clear at this time....RISK/REWARD factor is below my limits....easier times to make money



Good Luck

[tsptalk]

Wilshire 4500 did a face plant after an early rally...

finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^EMW&t=1d (you'll have to cut and paste this ugly link into your browser)

Not sure what is up with that. Bond yields are down this morning. I thought the small caps would like that.

[Brak]

This is from a great site that updates what is going on in the market every 30 minutes. No clue about the Wilshire 4500 though......





13:30 ET
Dow +54, Nasdaq -7, S&P +0.91


[BRIEFING.COM]The major averages are continuing to trend lower, with the Nasdaq showing mild losses, the S&P 500 relatively flat, and the Dow sportingmoderate gains... The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 have pulled below their 50-day simple moving averages at 1972 and 1117, respectively... The indices' inabilityto stabilize above these technically-significant levels would beviewed as unfavorable by technical analysts... Many a rally effort have fizzled over the past couple of weeks, as buyers have remained a hesitant bunch... The same is true today, as participants are apprehensive to commit new funds ahead of the long Memorial Day Weekend, particularly on the heels of yesterday's heightened terrorism talk... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1930/1287. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1358/1664.

[tsptalk]

Is that a pay site G-Man?

[Builder]

Briefing.com is a pay site, but does a limited fee information area. Their non-pay halfhour updates are also carried by Yahoo finance at http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

[Brak]

The Gold and Platinum areas require a fee.

The Silver area is free.

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralInfo/ProductOptions/MoreDetailsSilver.htm

[oneyoungbuck]

All the Futures are down at the moment, S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, hope we have a good day. Currently at 60C and 40S.

[smine]

Yeah, I see stocks on a downward spiral. I waited until today(yesterday before 12pm cut-off) to get out of I; only commited 33% to C and 33% to S. I'm not leaving G empty. This downward stock trend for today bears watching. Maybe setting the stage for a big rally Tuesday when everything reopens.

[tsptalk]

oneyoungbuck wrote:
All the Futures are down at the moment, S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, hope we have a good day. Currently at 60C and 40S.
I actual welcome a down day or two. Nothing drastic, just alittle waffling aroundon the downside like today. No real damage but enoughto help those overbought indicators come back to normal levels.

[GTO1970]

sensing a turn around in S&P and wilshire and a big drop in EAFE

bears and bulls fighting for king of the hill

GTO

[tsptalk]

I think I am going to stay put with 35% C, 65% S. I like the action today. If we had jumped up out of the gate this morning I may have thought differently. Today's nervous long weekend selling is a good thing I believe.

Next week historically shapes up pretty good. Like I've been saying, my new attitude is to error on the side of being too bullish. If there's no trouble this weekend it shouldbring Friday's sellers back into stocks Tuesday.

[tsptalk]

GTO1970 wrote:
sensing a turn around in S&P and wilshire and a big drop in EAFE

bears and bulls fighting for king of the hill

GTO

After yesterday, I was wondering if the C fund was going to start taking the lead again and outperform the small caps S fund. But today the small caps are doing slightly better.

[Rolo]

eeeeeeeeeSSSSSSSSS!

Yes, my stronger small caps are doing better than the NASDAQ average this week and today.

[thinks]

That confused me a little when C (seemed out of nowhere) to do better than S fund... I was thinking this year the S had been doing better.... care to expand on this?

I wasn't home to make a move today... have none in 'G'.

[Rolo]

I am pleased so far...hopefully the histerical data won't mock us. 30C/70S

[tsptalk]

thinks wrote:
That confused me a little when C (seemed out of nowhere) to do better than S fund... I was thinking this year the S had been doing better.... care to expand on this?

I'm not sure if you were talking about my post bt I'll butt in...
The S has been doing better this year. I have been wondering when rising interest rates would affect small caps which are more interest rate sensitive. The other day the C fund outperformedthe S fund and that gets me thinking again about when to even out or go heavier into the C fund (over the S). Today showed me the S fund is still in charge.

[puertorico]

-small cap[I] OUTperform large cap [c] becouse low interes-

-large cap {c} outperform small cap {i} at rates start rise-

:D

[Rolo]

tsptalk wrote:
The S has been doing better this year. I have been wondering when rising interest rates would affect small caps which are more interest rate sensitive. The other day the C fund outperformedthe S fund and that gets me thinking again about when to even out or go heavier into the C fund (over the S). Today showed me the S fund is still in charge.
Agreed....eeeeeeeeSSSSSSSSSSS! ehehe

Now that's butting in! Oh, pardon me, my bias is showing.

I am speculating that the actual change in rates or the declarationof a change will be the turning point that favours C. The question is, which is it andhow do we best time that?

Back to you, Tom!

[tsptalk]

I think it's a slower process than I first thought. If you go back to the early nineties it took a year or more after rate hikes for the C fund to take over. Maybe it doesn't happen until the first earnings are effected by the hike.

[Rolo]

tsptalk wrote:
Maybe it doesn't happen until the first earnings are effected by the hike.
Ahhhhh! Good point. I am under the impression that changes in earningsare a huge factor is stock prices, pretty much the be-all, end-all.

In the meantime...{gasp}...eeeee...hehehe.

[tsptalk]

OPEC says they will raise oil production by 2.5 million barrels a day which could lower oil prices by $6-$8 a barrel within a few weeks. The market loved that news and shot up taking out Thursday, Friday and Monday's high. No more downtrend.

That may be what the late bulls needed to hear to finally get on board. That means the pullback may be within reach. Until then, enjoy the ride. Watch 1130-1135 on the S&P 500 as a potential target.

Good news IS good newsthese days. Quite a change from a couple of weeks ago.

By the way, the dollar shot up also when the oil announcement was made.

[tsptalk]

If you read the market comments early this morning, I wanted to let you know I added a bit of material at about 8:00 AM ET. It is options expiration week once again and we see a correlation between a strongpre-options expiration week and a weak post-options expiration week next week (that's a lot of weeks and weaks ;)) and the June seasonality chart.

Market Comments (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html)

Something for short term investors to consider.
Tom

[retire rich]

Laying low today, I thought if market has a down day starting out, I might bite a lilttle. But after thinking about all the nervousness, and uncertainty, I think I will play "hide in the G fund" until more solid direction appears. Definitly will jump in today if more sell off is happening. currently 100% G...for now.

[smine]

Same here, Toby. Last week took bigreturn then retreated to 100% G on Tuesday for Wednesday. Will get back in again when the market drops really low (as it's doing now). Until then I want to preserve what I have!! :^

[tsptalk]

The good news is the drop is on very light volume so far. Could be one of the lightest trading days of the year so far.

Just as a rally on light volume sends up a red flag, a decline on light volume is a good sign. The market seems to be wantinga catalyst to get it going again.

[Rolo]

D'oh! I always forget to look at volume! :dah:

That is a bit relievingto hear and you said it, the market needs a catalyst. I think we'll be OK if we stay above Monday's low, ya?

Odd. All of my stocks are up (two rose 5% intraday, on high volume)...this index stuff is killin' me! :D

[tsptalk]

Rolo wrote:
Odd. All of my stocks are up (two rose 5% intraday, on high volume)...this index stuff is killin' me! :D

Those must be some quality stocks. Nice relative strength as they call it.

[tsptalk]

Rolo wrote:
That is a bit relievingto hear and you said it, the market needs a catalyst. I think we'll be OK if we stay above Monday's low, ya?

So far we have held but it wouldn't surprise me if the S&P 500 fell to the 1118 area tomorrow, where the 50 day moving average is, before rebounding. I'd like to see that hold for sure.

[Rolo]

The 50-day came to my mind, too. I almost went all G until they hit the 50-day.

I keep mixing strategies and that kills me. (Do I do gut or FRO?) I have commitment issues? hehe

My stocks did settle today,four up, one down, but up overall.VLCCF and WBSN pretty much ignore the market entirely and keep growing; I just got back into SCSS, got out right before it topped, SIRI and XMSR pretty much do their own thing.

There seem to be a lot of flat bases. I am interpreting that as no dips anytime soon. Hmmm.

[tsptalk]

How glad am I that I did not get nervous and bail yesterday? That would have been disastrous to be in stocks Monday and out Tuesday. To be honest, if it wasn't for that pre-options expiration week data saying this week is typically stronger than normal, I may havegotten out. Of course I would have stayed 60% in stocks because of my current bullish discipline.

Information and discipline. Shew!

[Rolo]

:( shup

hehehehe

Yeah, I need a "screwed the pooch" smiley, heh. I should have left well enough alone. Now, what to do with this 30%G that I have...

[Frizz B.]

I was off work yesterday so I did not plan to make a move. I wish I had sat down and did some calculations, the way the stocks started low yesterday, I might have moved to the S fund yesterday, instead of this morning. It is these kind of days that really put you in your place.

[tsptalk]

The market is sure trying to test me this morning. In my comments today I said,


...if we are at least even by the deadline today (12:00 noon ET on Thursday) I will make some sort of transfer into the G fund. If we are down more than modestly, I may just stay 100% stocks.
I'd say right now we are down modestly. Now I have to figure out where"more than modestly" kicks in. :?

[Rolo]

hehehe...These decisions are rarely cut-and-dry. :(

Half of my stocks are up, and half are down. The ups outweigh the downs. :^

Does that shed any light on index funds? Probably not, but I do need to add more oil stocks.

DWCP does not seem to be able to penetrate 440 whatsoever. 1135 for SPX gets further away. Will these still be resistance lines over the next week or two, or willwe have asecond breakout that holds?

[tsptalk]

A little good news today. The AAIISentiment Survey came out with41% being bullish and 25% bearish (1.6 ratio). That is much better than last week's 55% bullish and 16% bearish (3.4 ratio).

As long as the market stays down this morning, I think I will wait before getting out. The way the market has been playing the up one day, down the next,Monday may be a better time to be out. So unless the market rallies in the next hour, I'll stay put.

[tsptalk]

tsptalk wrote:
As long as the market stays down this morning, I think I will wait before getting out. The way the market has been playing the up one day, down the next,Monday may be a better time to be out. So unless the market rallies in the next hour, I'll stay put.

Today started down but as I mentioned in today's comments, I thought we would see some gains before the day was over. As you probably saw, I did end up making a move. The market has been clawing it's way back to even so I decided to get 30% into the G fund for Friday.

I have mixed feeling about this move since the market is in a very uncertain situation. It could breakout to the upside or the downside. My indicators are very wishy washy right now (see glossary for that technical term :)). So I'm reallymaking the moveout of uncertainty, with a littlehistorical data thrown in there, rather than because of any good technical or fundamental analysis.

[Rolo]

ack....one of my oils slipped...blood all over my Scottrade today. VLCCF is still the renegade, still strong. I think I'll buy some more of that tomorrow. I'm keeping my 50/50 C/S right where it is for now before I do more damage, hehe.

[tsptalk]

Very encouraging day today (6/23/04). Volume picked up quite a bit and some of the overhead resistance has been taken out. This bodes well for the intermediate and long term. The fact that we closed near the highs may bode well for tomorrow as well, at least early on.

Now I will have to pick my spots to get my 30% G fund money back in stocks. I was sort of hoping this type of action would hold off until early next week.

Great day :^
Tom

[Rod]

I'm very happy my hunch told me to stay 100% S for today. That may sound crazy to some, but hey, it paid off.

It's part of my beta 2-3 personality.;)

But, can we go 3 days in a row???

We'll see.

[tsptalk]

Rod wrote:
I'm very happy my hunch told me to stay 100% S for today. That may sound crazy to some, but hey, it paid off.

Nicecall and good timing Rod!

[GS083]

I also stayed in S 70, C 20 ,I 10

[Mr. Duke]

Go E-bay!

Currently G since June 9th ...got my better than 2 % and out for the month.. will be looking to get back in next month unless we get hammer for a couple of days then I will be in sooner...

Rate Hike at end of money 1/4 or 1/2 point???? Hoping to get the 1/2 point and be done with it for awhile...

Been busy with stuff