Dec 2013 Jobs Report Contest

[tsptalk]

On Friday, January 10, we get the December jobs report. Make your predictions on the number of jobs gained / lost in the month??

You can't pick a number already taken and each guess must be rounded to 1000's. (ex: +201,000, -14,000, +195,000, +176,000, -5,000, etc. - no 100's)

There's a travel mug up for grabs for the closest pick.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/mug10_small.gif

If the winner also guesses the unemployment number correctly, they can upgrade to the stainless mug if they'd like (so predict both)!

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/mug11_small.gif


We'll take predictions until 12:00 midnight ET this Thursday night, Jan 9.

Thanks, and good luck!


Briefing.com's consensus estimates are looking for +197,000 and 7.0%.

[Bquat]

-32,000 good by holiday jobs.

[moonshine]

+214,000, 6.9 percent

[robo]

+151,000

[dhstdog]

+240,000

unemployment rate 7.6

[imike023]

+221,000

[pokerstar629]

+206,000
7.2 unemployment rate

[Quick32]

Plus 229,000

[remark]

+182,000 7.1%

[Weather]

167,000 7.2%

[Frixxxx]

+187,000

6.9%

[Intrepid_Timer]

158000 7.1%

[slayer72]

+185,000 @ 6.9%

[EricDeLee]

202000. 7.0

i asked this in another thread:
if it is projected at 203k. What numbers are we looking for to give the markets a needed "pop"?
im assuming higher than 203k and lower than 7.0 and we could see a good jump. Right?

Also... Having too good of a number may speed up the QE taper if I'm not mistaken. We want a happy medium, right? Just to get a slower taper rate

[jkenjohnson]

200,000 and 7.0%

[exceed83]

+ 204,000 & 7.0%

[ILoveTDs]

Heart tells me 204,000 @ 7.1%, but since 204,000 is already taken I'll go:

203,000 @ 7.1%

[tsptalk]

+176,000 / 7.1%

[Tawny27]

+143,000 / 7.3%

[RAM56]

+250,000 / 4.0%

[MrJohnRoss]

+210,000 / 7.1%

[Firedog]

+191,000/7.1%

[DreamboatAnnie]

+231,000 / 7.0 %

[jaybro61]

208thousand and 6.9

[eich09]

188K jobs, 7.1%

[Birchtree]

301K - that would be a nice surprise number.

[Beachcats]

191,000 jobs 7%

[scollins1225]

196K, 7.1%

[Cathy57]

+189,000

[gronk007]

199k
7.1

[tonenotvolume]

+238,000 7.0%

[jb0441]

215,000 / 6.9%

[Tsunami]

234K
6.9%
S&P 500 jumps to 1856

[DakotaKid]

+195K / 7.0%

[mellowmoon]

+194,000 / 7.0%

[MrBowl]

+257,000 6.9%

[Gumby]

+263,000 Employment Rate 6.8%

[tsptalk]

< 2 hours left.

[James48843]

December unemployment rate declines (6.7%);

payroll employment edges up (+74,000)





Last edited Fri Jan 10, 2014, 08:42 AM -

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

The unemployment rate declined from 7.0 percent to 6.7 percent in
December, while total nonfarm payroll employment edged up (+74,000),
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose
in retail trade and wholesale trade but was down in information.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Household Survey Data
|
| Seasonally adjusted household survey data have been revised using updated
| seasonal adjustment factors, a procedure done at the end of each calendar
| year. Seasonally adjusted estimates back to January 2009 were subject to
| revision. The unemployment rates for January 2013 through November 2013
| (as originally published and as revised) appear in table A, along with
| with additional information about the revisions.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Household Survey Data

The number of unemployed persons declined by 490,000 to 10.4 million
in December, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point
to 6.7 percent. Over the year, the number of unemployed persons and the
unemployment rate were down by 1.9 million and 1.2 percentage points,
respectively. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (6.3
percent) and whites (5.9 percent) declined in December. The rates for adult
women (6.0 percent), teenagers (20.2 percent), blacks (11.9 percent), and
Hispanics (8.3 percent) showed little change. The jobless rate for Asians
was 4.1 percent (not seasonally adjusted), down by 2.5 percentage points
over the year. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed
temporary jobs decreased by 365,000 in December to 5.4 million. The number
of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 3.9
million, showed little change; these individuals accounted for 37.7 percent
of the unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed has declined by 894,000
over the year. (See tables A-11 and A-12.)

Read more: Employment Situation Summary (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)

[jkenjohnson]

No one was even close.

[Weather]

Labor force participation rate at 62.8%. Lowest rate in 12 months.

[tsptalk]

+143,000 / 7.3%

We have a winner! Congrats, Tawny27!

Please PM or email me at http://www.tsptalk.com/images/email_support.gifyour shipping info for your Travel Mug!


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