Transfer 5/11 for 5/12/04

[tsptalk]

I am inititating a transfer this morning to be effective Wednesday 5/12.

20% C, 30% S and 50% I fund. I am betting heavier on a rebound in theEAFE index anda pullback in the dollar.

I am still keeping an eye on this rebound's volume and follow through for signs of future action. We'll know more near the close.

[puertorico]

:^I'm in:shock:

[GS083]

I did my move yesterday 30 C 40 S 30 I.

[smine]

Didn't hear in time. Oh well. I'm done 4K in 10 days. Bummer.

I stayed locked at 25% across theses funds G/C/S/I. Was prepared to buy more if market was down. But since we got the bounce I will keep the 25% G for now. Hope the bounce doesn't lose any stream for tomorrow.

[tsptalk]

Cisco's earnings report due out shortly should set the tone for tomorrow. If we are still in a 'good news is bad news' and 'bad news is bad news' situation there isn't much of a bright side. I just hope a good report will be greeted for what it is, that is earnings are rising and that doesn't necessarily mean inflation.

Volume was on the light side. Not what you normally like to see in a reversal. Maybe a good report from Cisco will lure more buyers tomorrow.

[JerBer]

Cisco Kid, was a friend of mine...

How many of you remember that song? Now you're showing your ages!:D

JerBer

[tsptalk]

War, was it?

[tsptalk]

Cisco beats earnings and sales estimates but something must have been said to upset traders as the stock is down 2% in after hours trading...

Or maybe we are back to good news is bad news :*

[puertorico]

what next ?

may a run to G I'm not a bullet proof:D

Well, I just took an additional 5% position in the C/S/I...still trying to dollar cost average. I am a whopping 90% exposed to the equities...10% in G. I 'm obviously in for the long bounce or rally. No time to be skiddish now.

[k2ds]

Well we are bleeding again. :( I'm down over 9k in the week.

But i'm in too deep to run for cover now. just have to ride it out and pray a lot!!

Sitting 50 C 50 I for now.

[tsptalk]

This is a amazing. Again I'm like a deer caught in the headlights. My indicators say one thing, the market is saying another.

One thing I do know. If I jump outnow we will surely get a rebound :oo Like in January, my indicators appear to beearly. I just don't see a reason to sell other than that the market is doing poorly (which isn't a bad reason) But I don't like to sell fear. I buyit. Interest rate hikes should not destroy a strong economy or the market.

The only positive (less negative) thing to talk about is that the 50% I have in the I fund is softening the blow some so far

[Cortez]

I believe the "good news is bad" syndrome affecting the markets is a symptom of an addiction to liquidity as if the market is a heroin addict. The rush of liquidity through the veins of the market by way of Bernanke's printing press, Greenspan's Fed fund rate, the federal deficit and Bush's tax cuts was the fuelfor the market run up of 2003. Although this manipulation is not overt as in currency markets, these efforts to rev up the economy have supercharged the markets. Whether a company produces good earnings only establishes its place among stocks in the market. The strong stocks are on the top of the wave and the weak stocks at the bottom. Federal policy, however, has the powerful effect of the tides. As the Fed tightens it monetary policies, the withdrawals are sure to come to the markets and remain for a considerable period. I'm looking for one more bounce to get out of stocks and go G Fund until circumstances change.

[tsptalk]

Catching a bounce here.

Good post by the way Cortez.

[ralphniz]

Tom said

"One thing I do know. If I jump outnow we will surely get a rebound :oo"

Tom - If you want to jump out now, you have my encouragement. I could use the rebound. lol.

Ralph

[smine]

That's funny, Ralph! Right however, if we get out now we really lose by selling low. Maybe tomorrow will be better.

[tsptalk]

:l!!

[tsptalk]

Want to see what areversal looks like? We ran out of sellers at about 2 PM. I'd love to know what the bullish/bearish sentiment was at the time. We won't know for sure because I believe the Wednesday survey is taken at the close on Wednesday's, after the rebound was in full swing...

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/bounce.bmp

That's about a 200 point rally from low to high. Volume picked up also. Now we need to see some follow through. I doubt we go straight up as there is a lot of overhead resistance to get through before we are out of the water. But this was a nice start.

[smine]

What's the funny little spike of international (EFA) at about 2:15pm? May be the leading time start of the upswing to the stocks? Interesting.

[GTO1970]

Tom,

Nice call on I fund!:iafter I had 75% transferred out of stocks and into G Fund I checked Nikkei I decide to go against my pull out plan and move with you and transferred 50% into I fund for Wednesday. I had some harsh words for you until about 2:30ET and then I lighten up and gave you a big hug at Market close

Made back a big chunk of losses for the week and back under 3% losses from the last month, please give AW (Advanced Warning) when to pull up and out of I Fund

Please forgive me!:oo

Thank You,

GTO:D

[tsptalk]

Harsh words or a hug? Too much pressure to perform.:# ..........:D

[Mr. Duke]

Tomorrow..............Profit Taking!

still G

[GTO1970]

I vote profit taking in F Fund!

:P

[Pete1]

Yesterday morning, I retreated to a more moderate allocation, 21C, 21S, 21I, 37G. It was nice to have a few profitable days before making the move. This is an extremely conservative allocation for me. I would like to get back up to at least an 80/20 allocationvery soon. Fundadvice.com dropped down to 25% equities two days ago. If they go down to 0 in equities, I will probably drop to 50% equities spread equally across the 3 stock funds. I just cannot bring myself to ever go lower than that. I sure hope this thing gets moving again soon. With this more moderate allocation, I am hoping for some singles and doubles with very few strikeouts. Hopefully, some of you out there with 100% equity exposure will hit a home run. :D

[puertorico]

-stay put - sell - or buy-

I don't know,but am ready to play stock

may 16 to 213rd week . The bounce is

due already. DOW OR UP i'm in

I have 30 minute to things about it :shock:

[puertorico]

That was just a first impulse,really

I dont know what to do ,Things can

be worse :shock:but my number says

the market own us a profit...:D

[tsptalk]

I would have pulled some out if the market was up. But since it's down, I'll stay put with 20% C, 30% S and 50% I.

[puertorico]

Monday Risky Territory...50-G 20-C 20-S 10-I

[cougarcash]

I moved everything to the G Fund on 4/28/04. My opinion is just hold on to some of the gains I've made and wait for some sort of market sign, as it is the market is fluctuating very slightly (higher and lower) usually when this happens the market tends to make a big drop before it makes a big gain, and you can get back in when you see a sign that a up turn is coming.

[tsptalk]

:x

[Mr. Duke]

staying G...........the market is just FLICKTID! I believe in buying the dips, however, this is not a dip, this is a major pull back that continues to be warranted by imminent rate hikes, a presidential election, military abuse problems, a media that is pro enemy andprefers reporting enemy abuseinstead of beheaded americans. Gas/Oil prices are out of hand. Steel and Concrete are extremely hard to get and the prices have gone through the roof.... Personally, I would cut my losses at this point until this ball starts rewinding itself.. Good Luck

[tsptalk]

FLICKTID
You must be from Maryland :)

[VictorPR]

I tried to stay in the game but it has changed dramasticly and the losses continue to pile up so I have no other recourse than to pull back and regroup and later come back and fight another day.........The I Fund is just taking too much of my soldiers and and I can not stand there and continue to be a sitting target......... My time has come to go back to the G Fund..........:shock:

[Mr. Duke]

Did not know Flicktid (unsure of the correct spelling) was a territorial word, however, if you must know................Edgewood, Maryland.....you're good Tom!

Afflicked is a bible word

Still G............however, I'm sensing a buying day tomorrow for funds...hope I'm right for ya'll (ya'll is a territorial word for us southerners)

[puertorico]

givemethegreeeeeeen :^



Tom what time is it ?

Time to play safe ? jump safe !

or till hanging in there ! :D

[tsptalk]

We are due for a rally and this is an options expiration week (usually good), but I'm actually considering talking something off the table. Maybe for Friday (Thursday transaction).

We'll see how it goes. Remember this chart?...

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/s&poptionavgreturn.gif

[puertorico]

Tom !

I supposed to jump to G after a rebound but

now feel a little greedy again .It's not easy

get out on the green.:D

Thinking,taking out half too :?

[puertorico]

Tom

Can U explain just a little bid what in the option-expiration chart ?

I'm not good with chart !:?

THANKS !

[puertorico]

Like ,what happened in monday ,tuesday wednesday thurdays and friday ?:D

in that expiration chart ? Look positive ?:?

I'm still hanging tough 30% C/ 30 % S/ 30% I, and was considering pushing the 10% G over to the equity position....but held back. I know I being very aggressive, but I'm really a long termer anyway...so holding this postion isn't so tough....not losing any sleep.

[puertorico]

I feel panic and moved all to G :shock:

tHa's was I had in mind in case a rebound

and that's what I did.

I had thoughts of may be reallocating, moving out S to C or I, but as I stated earlier I held steady. Market looking good today. Hopefully we will get a good ride.

[tsptalk]

puertorico wrote:
I feel panic and moved all to G :shock:

tHa's was I had in mind in case a rebound

and that's what I did.


You've timed the market pretty well lately PR. I won't doubt your instincts.

That chart basically says the week of options expirations (blue bars) is historically stronger than a normal week with only Friday being down on average. The red bars represent the week followingexpiration week. It is historically weeker thana normal week.

[puertorico]

Sometime my lucky-punch knockdown the market

but them the market knock me out and take all.

I just playing a little caution here :D

[Mr. Duke]

Another great chart Tom.....You sure your first name isn't Ross....Question? what are the normal duration of options...and doesthe marketnormally follow the averages of the charts?If so please continue to post if you can...Maybe with a little more heads up if possible.... I have always been a more sentiment player and playing the dips with the TSP (trying some different tactics), however, my main money is 100% stocks long term

[tsptalk]

Duke, it seems like every time I mention or post historical data that shows a trend, it goes the other way on me so I've (#) been a little hesitant lately to post it.

You can usually buy options up to several months before they expire. Options that are for longer term,up to many years, are called leaps. People buy options for different reasons. Some to "bet" on a stock or index going up or down, some use it to hedge stock positions in case of a move against them (i.e.: Buy 1000 shares of IBM and 10 contracts of IBM puts. If the stock tanks, the options value goes up.)

I hope I answered your question.
Tom