hurricane links

[teknobucks]

Eglin AFB Tropical Weather page (http://www.eglin.af.mil/weather/tropics.html)
Florida Coastal Waters (http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/FLRDMAP.shtml)
Hurricane & Tropical Storm Weather Updates - Weatherhub (http://www.weatherhub.com/Hurricane/)
HURRICANE WEATHER DATA (http://www.stormeyes.org/pietrycha/hur.html)
hurricanetracking (http://www.captaingfb.com/hurricanetracking.html)
J Squared Weather Forum - excoboard.com (http://s2.excoboard.com/exco/forum.php?forumid=68273)
Moored Buoy and C-MAN Locations and Information (http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/wrldmap.shtml)
Perry's Hurricane 05' (http://community-2.webtv.net/SouthernWx61/Hurricane/)
POD WEATHER Podcasting Weather One Day at a Time (http://podweather.com/)
Unisys Weather 3 hour Loop of Infrared Satellite Image (http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_hem_loop.html)
Wright-Weather - powered by vBulletin (http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/index.php?s=91190f96ea49ba814770a973a1b9b799)

[James48843]

35403
Hurricane JOAQUIN


Current information:
Hurricane JOAQUIN


(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents)Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory

Home (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) Public Adv Fcst Adv (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/012044.shtml?) Discussion (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/012054.shtml?) Wind Probs (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/012045.shtml?) Graphics (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/204603.shtml?3-daynl) Archive (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/refresh/JOAQUIN+shtml/205402.shtml?)


000
WTNT31 KNHC 012045
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
500 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 JOAQUIN MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 74.4W
ABOUT 15 M....25 KM NW OF CROOKED ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern
Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bimini
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and
Caicos Islands
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be complete in the central Bahamas.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 74.4 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a westward or
southwestward motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the
north is expected on Friday, and a faster motion toward the north is
expected Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Joaquin will move near or over portions of the central
Bahamas tonight and pass near or over portions of the northwestern
Bahamas on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Joaquin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
tonight and Friday, with some fluctuations in intensity possible
Friday night and Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 936 mb (27.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue across portions
of the central and southeastern Bahamas through Friday. Hurricane
conditions are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas
tonight and Friday. Tropical storm conditions will affect other
portions of the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos
Islands through tonight.

STORM SURGE: A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will
raise water levels by as much as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide
levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm
surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the
remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.

RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are
expected over the southeastern Bahamas, with 2 to 4 inches over the
northwestern Bahamas. This rainfall could result in life-threatening
flash floods. Outer rain bands of Joaquin may affect portions of
eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic today and tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the
Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions
of the southeastern coast of the United States tonight and spread
northward through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Regardless of
Joaquin's track, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and
large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant
beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents)

[k0nkuzh0n]

lol this thread was from 2005 and only had 1 post

[burrocrat]

lol this thread was from 2005 and only had 1 post

some fears are easier to spread than other fears?

[PessOptimist]

Now, now this is a good public service announcement. Good for James posting a link and for looking for a thread that existed instead of starting a new one.

Those living on the East Coast of the US would be well advised to watch the link given starting Sunday. High surf for surfers and possible coastal flooding.

Fears? James could have gone to some of the media who are predicting the East Coast will no longer exist soon. "Worse than Sandy" seems to be the theme. Instead he went to NOAA's NHC site where they issue worst case scenarios lest the US Gov be sued yet again by a "I thought I could ride it out, nobody told me what could happen" person. So they have been told what could happen. CYA world.

Best of luck to any in the path or it's edges. A big rain event I think coming after the recent big rain event.

FWIW I read a news article from NY that stated the recent rains were from Hurricane Joaquin. Not. Hey FWM, jump in here and give us some professional input. Heavy rains on the East coast this week had not a lot to do with any Hurricane.

PO

arrrgh

[userque]

Now, now this is a good public service announcement. Good for James posting a link and for looking for a thread that existed instead of starting a new one.

+1.

[nasa1974]

Current predictions have JOAQUIN moving northeast and missing landfall in the US. However warnings are out for heavy surf and possible flooding


35409



000
WTNT31 KNHC 021150
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS JOAQUIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AS IT
BATTERS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 74.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF CLARENCE LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern
Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bimini
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and
Caicos Islands
* Andros Island
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Los Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Joaquin. A
Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 74.8 West. Joaquin is
drifting toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster
northward motion is expected to begin later today, followed by a
turn toward the northeast and an increase in forward speed tonight
and Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of the strongest winds
of Joaquin will continue moving over portions of the central and
northwestern Bahamas today. Joaquin will begin to move away from the
Bahamas tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Joaquin is a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible during the next 24 hours. Slow weakening is expected to
begin on Saturday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 937 mb (27.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue across portions
of the central and southeastern Bahamas through today. Hurricane
and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
northwestern Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions will affect
other portions of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos
Islands today. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions
of eastern Cuba through this morning.

STORM SURGE: A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will
raise water levels by as much as 6 to 12 feet above normal tide
levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm
surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the
remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.

RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 12 to 18 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximum
amounts of 25 inches. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are
expected over the southeastern Bahamas, with 2 to 4 inches over the
northwestern Bahamas, eastern Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic,
and the Turks and Caicos Islands. This rainfall could result in
life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the
Bahamas during the next few days. Swells have begun to affect
portions of the southeastern coast of the United States and will
spread northward along the east coast of the United States through
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Regardless of Joaquin's track, a
prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will
affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune
erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[PessOptimist]

UhOH, look what I failed to do with the thread title. Serves me right for pointing that out elsewhere.:embarrest:

PO

[FireWeatherMet]

FWIW I read a news article from NY that stated the recent rains were from Hurricane Joaquin. Not. Hey FWM, jump in here and give us some professional input. Heavy rains on the East coast this week had not a lot to do with any Hurricane.

PO

arrrgh

Associated with the Hurricane yes.
Directly result of...no.

See upper air chart (below) with pressure (black lines), winds (barbs) and humidity (green to darker green means higher humidity (aka moisture) at about 10,000 ft level.
Notice that the regular low pressure over NW Florida (red L) is pulling in a narrow (but copious) band of tropical moisture (green area) from the hurricane (red H) and entraining that moisture in its counter-clockwise flow, streaming it into the Ohio Valley where the dynamics of the Florida low squeezes that moisture out (dark green) producing heavy rain well away from the hurricane center. .

So the hurricane might be half the reason of the heavy rain...which would most likely only be light to moderate rain if we were only dealing with the NW Florida low.
In weather its rare that only one weather system causes everything...often its a combination of 2 or more weather systems.
But the changed forecast for the NE coast is due to the models in the last 24 hours shifting away from an inland hurricane track...combining it with the Florida low...and now the models are keeping the core of the hurricane separate, and offshore. So the moisture entrainment from the hurricane will be the only hurricane effects on rainfall...instead of the core of the hurricane itself, which would have been devastating.

Hope that clears it up a little.

35420

[PessOptimist]

OK so Joaquin was part of the source of the moisture. I get it. Happens here occasionally when there is a tropical cyclone in the Lower California area.

FWIW I read a news article from NY that stated the recent rains were from Hurricane Joaquin.

My point was that at the time the center of Joaquin was somewhere between Bermuda and the Turks and Caicos. So the heavy rains were hardly announcing the hurricanes arrival.

Thanks for the input FWM.

PO

[FireWeatherMet]

I do vaguely remember a similar but more elongated moisture tap from the hurricane up thru the northeast. So partially enhanced but not directly of the hurricane. There was a cold front that normally would produce light to moderate rain but it was able to tap some of the hurricanes moisture and send it 800 miles further north.

[nnuut]

Much better than WAAKEEN hitting a major city in the USA, I know I've been in a bunch of them even a Typhoon off Okinawa in 1968 Old Della was a real Ball Buster. Hugo went dead center over my house in Charleston, great fun in the middle of the night, two weeks no power, BBQ every day. MORE!

[burrocrat]

the winds and weather go round and round, the sun comes up and rain comes down. learn it, live it, love it.

[nnuut]

I lived in the Charleston SC area for over 35 years and downtown Charleston ALWAYS floods it doesn't have to be a tropical storm just heavy rain. I can't count how many times it did when I lived there but it's called the Low Country for a good reason.


Why Does It Seem Like
Charleston Always Floods When
It Rains?


The Greater Charleston area has experienced
drainage and flooding problems since its
founding more than 300 years ago.
It is difficult to drain a city that is surrounded
by water, next to the ocean, and only a few
feet above mean sea level in many places.
Various drainage techniques have been
implemented since the 1800s with varying
degrees of success.
https://sc-charleston.civicplus.com/DocumentCenter/View/574

[RealMoneyIssues]

https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC

[James48843]

Hurricane Patricia now coming ashore in Mexico as a Category 5-

Live video feed here:



Live video cam from Hurricane Patricia

Now sure how long the feed from the Mexican coast will last, but you can see conditions worsen as Patricia nears landfall:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP5Y4lISF0s


Watch out Texas-it is headed your way soon.....

35696

[James48843]

Another beach front live webcam:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4n9QogL9IyE


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4n9QogL9IyE

[nnuut]

Megastorm Patricia inflicts little damage on Mexican coast

CHAMELA, Mexico (AP) — Just a day after menacing Mexico as one of history's strongest storms, Hurricane Patricia left surprisingly little damage in its wake Saturday and quickly dissipated into a low-pressure system that posed little threat beyond heavy rain.
The hurricane's most powerful punch landed on a sparsely populated stretch of Mexico's Pacific Coast before the system crashed into mountains that sapped its potentially catastrophic force. The popular beach city of Puerto Vallarta and the port of Manzanillo were spared the brunt of the violent weather.
Authorities were still checking on some isolated areas, where roads had been blocked by downed trees, but the devastation appeared to be far less than feared.
There were no reports of deaths or injuries, said Roberto Lopez Lara, interior secretary for the state of Jalisco. Later, President Enrique Pena Nieto reported that between 3,000 and 3,500 homes had been damaged and the storm also affected 3,500 hectares (about 8,650 acres) of farmland. He said 235,000 people had lost electricity when the storm hit, and about half had power restored by Saturday.







http://ak.imgfarm.com/images/ap/thumbnails//502875525747-Mexico_Tropical_Weather_20151025.jpeg (http://apnews.myway.com/image/20151025/502875525747-Mexico_Tropical_Weather_20151025.html?date=2015102 5&docid=tropical-weather-5fad17348e)


(AP) Residents walk through the debris of homes destroyed by Hurricane Patricia, in...
Full Image (http://apnews.myway.com/image/20151025/502875525747-Mexico_Tropical_Weather_20151025.html?date=2015102 5&docid=tropical-weather-5fad17348e)








It was a remarkable outcome, considering that Patricia had once been a Category 5 hurricane with winds up to 200 mph (325 kph) before coming ashore with slightly less power in an area dotted with sleepy villages and a few upscale hotels. [more]
My Way News - Megastorm Patricia inflicts little damage on Mexican coast (http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151025/tropical-weather-5fad17348e.html)

[alevin]

miracle no lives were lost. Homes were destroyed, not simply damaged, according to the photo and caption. am sure the people in those sleepy villages whose homes were destroyed will be struggling mightily to replace what was lost. article downplays impacts to their lives. but the people in the villages are likely to pull together to help those impacted, friends and family, to the extent their limited resources can stretch. those 8000 acres of damaged farmland may represent a year's income for a lot of those people. just a thought, it's all in a person's perspective how big the impacts actually are.