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06-24-2005, 03:25 PM
Stocks Continue Selloff June 24, 2005 2:26 p.m. By SCOTT PATTERSON

Stocks continued to decline Friday following Thursday's sell-off on Wall Street as investors unloaded stocks, worried that crude oil prices would rise to levels that will damage the U.S. economy.

Oil traders seemed convinced that crude oil prices had nowhere to go but up. Scott Meyers, a trading analyst at Pioneer Futures, said crude will almost certainly go higher than $60 a barrel. And if crude "takes out $60 it can go to $65 in heartbeat," he said.

Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 166.49 points to 10421.44, its biggest drop since April 15 and its third largest decline of the year, after crude briefly touched $60 a barrel. Recently, light, sweet crude rose three cents to $59.45 a barrel on New York Mercantile Exchange.

The Dow industrials, down more than 100 points earlier, recently fell 93.93 points to 10327.51. Shares of Alcoa slumped 3.3% after the aluminum titan said it would take a second-quarter charge of 25 cents to 28 cents and slash 6,500 jobs. Hewlett-Packard was down 2.3%, and Home Depot slipped 1.1%.

The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index declined 6.61 to 1194.12 and the Nasdaq Composite Index gave up 16.68 points to 2053.98.

Shares of Micron Technology declined 1% after the semiconductor maker posted a loss of 20 cents a share in the third quarter, citing a "nearly unprecedented" drop in chip prices of nearly 30%. Analysts had expected a gain of three cents a share. Intel fell 1.1% in sympathy, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, a benchmark for chip stocks, fell 1.1%.

Shares of Guidant tumbled 9.3% after the medical-device maker cautioned doctors to stop implanting some of its defibrillators, which U.S. regulators may recall.

Investors eyed a report showing new-home sales rose 2.1% in May to an annual rate of 1.3 million homes, the Commerce Department said. The gain was widely expected, though slightly below forecasts. Median sales prices for new homes fell 6.5% to $217,000, the report showed.

Another Commerce Department report showed durable-goods orders increased (http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB111961604657368789,00.html?mod=article-outset-box)6 a seasonally adjusted 5.5% to $210.69 billion in May after rising 1.4% in April. April demand was earlier estimated rising 1.9%. Analysts discounted the gain, however, since most of the gain reflected a surge of orders from Boeing
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Stocks fell (http://online.wsj.com/page/0,,2_0022,00.html)7. On the Big Board, where 983.7 million shares traded, 1,094 stocks rose and 2,103 fell. On the Nasdaq Stock Market, where 1 billion shares changed hands, 959 stocks advanced and 2,009 declined.

Bonds rose (http://online.wsj.com/page/0,,2_0031,00.html)8. The 10-year Treasury note added 10/32, or $3.125 per $1,000 invested, to yield 3.919%. The 30-year note was up 21/32 to yield 4.22%. Yields move inversely to prices.

The dollar was mixed (http://online.wsj.com/page/0,,2_0032,00.html)9. It traded at 109.32 yen, up from 108.89 yen late Thursday, while the euro gained against the dollar to $1.2082 from $1.2042.

Birchtree
06-24-2005, 05:48 PM
WW,

Fundamentally there is nothing wrong with the world - just to many nervous folks. But that is what makes a market. This is another opportunity to do some selective buying of good quality stocks, or at least move out of the G fund. Going against the grain is always difficult. I don't believe we will retest the April lows. And if the Chinese want to buy up some of our assets - I say bring your money because Ihave more than plenty of company stocks you can purchase. We may see more of their money going into our markets - that creates a hefty demand.

Dennis

Mike
06-25-2005, 02:41 AM
30 yr yield and 10 yr yield are separated by just 0.3%. :shock:

Birch, fundamentals are turning against the market. The manufacturing data has been going the wrong way for months, and the sector is on the verge of going from no growth to contraction. The monthly payroll data has been mostly so-so with last month being a major disappointment. Oil prices are now close to $60 and gas prices (in my neck of the woods and probably elsewhere now as well) have spiked back up to ~$2.27 per gallon (lowest grade). This is the highest they've been since early April. We also have another interest rate hike coming...

All of these things - combined with it being "earnings warning season" as Tom calls it - tell me that we're in for some weakness in the near term. I don't believe this is enough to test the 1130s on the S&P, but I do believe it'll test the 1170s - and probably the 1150s - before leveling off.

Birchtree
06-25-2005, 10:30 AM
Mike,

You are correct about the softness and the resulting bad news - this is exactly what the Fed has tried to engineer. To them, the bad news is good news. Now they can hold up on the rate increase and feel comfortable with the fact they have done their job, again. Once they are out of the way, the market forces will be allowed to function the way they were designed. We are no longer in an overbought condition and approaching seasonal strength - I'd rather be in and ready to go - this market can go up even faster than it went down. I'm begining to sound like a broken record, but being patient can be rewarding. I can hold out until the end of next week, we should have a good sense of direction by then. If the Fed doesn't hold up, it won't be long before we are in trouble and they are forced to cut rates.

Dennis