Transfer 5/4/04 for 5/5/04

[tsptalk]

I am going to initiate another transfer before this morning's deadline. I'm getting 100% into stocks, 35% C fund, 65% S fund. This will be effective Wednesday.

Tom

[Mr. Duke]

Should be excellent timing for Greensplats speech ........Maybe?............Hopefully?...........I'm still 100% I fund

[tsptalk]

Looks like a big day for the I fund so far. Nice.

[tsptalk]

Also, Japan's Nikkei has been closed for four days after being down big on Thursday night. They may get a pop up tonight if we don't get bad news later today.

[puertorico]

what about f fund ? bad time :shock:? or ok

50-f 20-c 20s 10-i

I'm not shure what to do ?:?

MY LOST ultimaly get me moderate

[tsptalk]

If rates are held steady, then it will still depend on the bias Greenspan has on the economy. My thought is if bonds do well because rates are not going up, stocks should do better.

[puertorico]

I JUST read in cnn money

http://money.cnn.com/2004/04/30/markets/sell_in_may/index.htm



sell in may tooctover -s/p 500 +1.5% gain:shock:

buy in nov to april -----s/p 500 +7.2%:D

[Vinothedog]

I figured I would spread things out.

25%C 25%S 25%I 25%G

Aloha

Vino

[Rolo]

My allocation was 55% I, 45% S and I have not touched it since October when the share prices were identical between I and S (moved more to I).

Following Tom's lead this morningand thinking that the S will have the most gains, I am now 66%S, 34% I.

Doestransferring $x from one fund to anotherfundwith a lesser share price really matter? I want to say that it does, but I cannot think of a reason why it would.

[tsptalk]

I only look at percentage gains and losses. The share price doesn't mean much to me.

[TRAVELER]

whew!!!!! what a relief--- i went 40 c 40s 20 i for today and tommorow--finally an upswing

[TRAVELER]

I LOOK AT MY ACCOUNT BALANCE :D

[JOTT]

I'm new to your message board. I have been watching all the movement for the past two monthsand I decided to join as a member today. Tom, I think you and some of the other members have a keen ear and good advice. I'm very interested in how to use the signals the market sends out. I have watched the recent action with the market and watched youside step the down turn only to get back in when you preceived that its all clear. What signals/ chartsare you watching :cool:(that I can watch also). I printed a message off your message boardlast week when Ecurb talked about Big-charts.com and the Java charts he was using. I think he likes to follow the SPX and watch the market to see if it breaks support levels. I want to learn more on how to invest. I can only do this by watching and applying what I see assuccessful. Thanks...:^

[tsptalk]

Welcome JOTT. Thanks for joining us.

Some of the indicators I look at are the ARMS 10 day moving average, the put/call ratios, the McClellan Oscillator (overbought/oversold indicators), moving averages, bullish/bearish sentiment numbers, new highs/new lows breadth indicators, trend lines and some other historical data.

Most of this information comes from sites I subscribe to. One I reference often is decisionpoint.com.

Thanks,
Tom

[Pete1]

I adjusted my allocation to a slightly more aggressive allocation for tomorrow: 30C, 30S, 30I, 10G. My allocation had been 25C, 25S, 25I, 25G. This isquite simply, acontrarian move on my part.I was somewhat surprised that the C andS funds did not take off afterGreenspan spoke today and so, am not quite sure if things are going to take off tomorrow. I guess we will wait and see.

[tsptalk]

It's tough to judge the action of the Fed meeting days. Basically there were no surprises. The markets took off initially (The dow was up 70 shortly after the announcement) but the almostcertainty of rates rising in Juneand profit talking, took away some gains. I was glad to see that. I'd rather it took off tomorrow (if it is going to take off at all) when I'm 100% in stocks. :shock:

[Pete1]

In a way, I almost wish that Greenspan would have made a move but it seemed like he was really trying not to shake things up too much. At least he has made it clear that rates are going to go up sooner rather than later and so, when it happens, maybe it won't send huge shockwaves through the market. Perhaps we were already seeing a somewhat more resignedmarket today?

[JOTT]

I feel that Green-span will move sooner then later so the dust can settle well before the election. This work needs to be done well in advance of the election to show that the Fed is not playing politics. When he raises rates there will possibly be some turbulenceand I don't think that would be good for Bush so close to the election. I say possible turbulence because the market ispricing inthis move and it might be a catalus for the market to take off.

[Mr. Duke]

Rolo wrote:
My allocation was 55% I, 45% S and I have not touched it since October when the share prices were identical between I and S (moved more to I).

Following Tom's lead this morningand thinking that the S will have the most gains, I am now 66%S, 34% I.

Doestransferring $x from one fund to anotherfundwith a lesser share price really matter? I want to say that it does, but I cannot think of a reason why it would.

Rolo,

No, transferring money from one fund to another fund with a lesser share price doesn't matter. If the fund you are buy has a high price per share it just means you will purchase less shares for the same dollar value... The original selling dollar value you started with will still be in the newly purchase fund (# of shares will be different)

Traveler,

If you only look at your dollar value each month how do you know if you are making or losing money.... Your dollar value will continue to go up monthly because of your bi-monthly contributions. If your dollar value is not going up ....you are losing a bundle! Tracking percentage gains while in funds is your most accurate means of a scorecard...Takes a little more time.

[Mr. Duke]

Another late night stuck at my wife's office....Blah, blah blah....2135 hrs and still TSP site hasn't updated share prices for Tuesday. I went to www.msci.com (http://www.msci.com) site and the EAFE (I fund) appears to have jumped 1.27% or approximately 16-17 cents....YEEEHAW....bout time.... This site is not always dead on the money but usually fairly accurate...:^

[TRAVELER]

I UNDERSTAND WHAT YOU ARE SAYING AND I KNOW WHAT AMOUNTS ARE INCLUDED BECAUSE OF MY CONTRIBUTIONS---SO WHETHER YOU CALCULATE IT IN PERCENTAGES OR YOUR ACCOUNT BALANCE IT'S ONE IN THE SAME BASICALLY--KNOW WHAT I MEAN

[TRAVELER]

I ALSO LOOK AT MY ACCOUNT BALANCE DAILY AND WHEN MY CONTRIBUTION GOES IN THAT IS NOTED---I NEVER CHANGE MY CONTRIBUTIONS--THEY ALWAYS GO TO THE G FUND--- IT THEN GETS MOVED WHEN I MAKE INTERFUND TRANFERS---GLAD TO SEE SOMEONE ELSE IS WORKING LATE TONIGHT :D

[Mr. Duke]

Lots of ways to skin a cat.... Some look at volume of shares accumulated ?, others watch money, others follow percentage...I follow percentage since that gives a score card against S & P numbers and TSP overall Fund numbers.. However, I would rather follow money than volume of shares if not following percentage.

Maybe it doesn't get my inside twisted if I see I am down 2% rather that looking at a lower Fund dollar amount



Go E-bay!!

[Mr. Duke]

Lots of ways to skin a cat



Go E-bay

[$hunter]

Administrator,

Why are you not invested in the I Fund?

[tsptalk]

$hunter wrote:
Administrator,

Why are you not invested in the I Fund?


Good question. I will get some in the I fund eventually. Right now the U.S. dollar is trending up which can stifle the I fund return.

Actually, it may be a good day to play the I fund (for tomorrow). Japan has been closed for a holiday since last Thursday night (our time) and it was down 2% the last time it was open. It usually follows us to some degree and we have been rebounding. I bet they have a good night tonight when they finally open.

[GTO1970]

Sound like good solid advice to me! I'm transferring additional 5% to I fund today

:^GTO

[JerBer]

Is it too late to get in to the I fund to capitalize on a possible Rally by Japan tonight?

Will a big night in Japan (tonight) be reflected in tomorrow's I fund yield? :s



Ah, heck, it's simpler to stay with the C & S funds!!

JerBer

[tsptalk]

I don't think it is too late to capitalize on Japan, but the other 75-80% of the EAFE index countries have been up over 1% the last two days so I'm not sure how it will play out.

I'm staying put also. But like I said, I will get some in the I fund eventually.

[k2ds]

Tom is the link for the Wilshier 4500 broken. It hasn't changed in 3 days or is it really -0.98%?

[tsptalk]

Yes. I tried to contact Barchart but I haven't heard from them. Use the link below those quotes for an accurate quote.

I apologize for the inconvenience.

I cashed out of C & S fund...still 10% in I fund. Currently holding 80% in G fund, 10% in F fund. Wanted to pull back (with gains), and see what twists are ahead. May jump back in Friday.

[tsptalk]

The light volume today does make me a bit nervous also. Friday is another important jobs report so we may see another "ho hum" day tomorrow.

[Mr. Duke]

Ahhhh yesssss...still 100% "I"

MAY 2004 F FUNDC FUNDS FUNDI FUND

PRIOR MONTH -2.54 -1.52 -3.94 -2.31


MTD% CHANGE -0.40% 1.29% 1.58% 2.36%


MTD$ CHANGE -0.04 0.15 0.20 0.31

[tsptalk]

Duke -

I guess you didn't get my message. I created a topic for you to put these market update posts in...
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/view_topic.php?id=190&forum_id=22

This way they will always be in the same spot when we are looking for them.

Thanks,
Tom

[Mr. Duke]

I am making themove now to pull back out of the "I" and back to "G", hoping for a good today and out for tomorrow... Putting in the request before 6 am.

Never can tell what to do ...just trying not to be greedy....Knowing my luck the market will continue to run for a week or too after I'm out... Hopefully I can at least getone more good day today :?

[puertorico]

Mr. Duke , today is looking bad rightaway,stock down

let see later is turn around to green...:shock:



Hey ! I'm looking a site tha was posted here

where you can see an analys talking about

the market stuff {tuesdays and thursdays}

That was too interesting to read.I'm not

shure is was Mr. Duke or another member.

Let me know is sombody find it.:^

[puertorico]

oh oh uuuuuuuuglyyyyyy day so far :v

dow 60.00 red :shock:

Tomorrow is interesting about job report:^

[JerBer]

Hey PR, That's GOOD news when the market starts off down........that means it has nowhere to go but UP at the end of the day! Right? Let's hope so anyway!

Bueno suerte amigo!

JerBer

[Rolo]

tsptalk wrote:
...I will get some in the I fund eventually. Right now the U.S. dollar is trending up which can stifle the I fund return.

Oh, yes, I forgot to mention the dollar getting stronger as one of my reasons for reducing my allocation in the I Fund. (66% S, 34% I)

[puertorico]

JerBer,I like what u just said:^ sound good:shock:

[JerBer]

I can't bear to look at the charts anymore this morning :shock:

It's not a good sign when the line dissappears:v

JerBer

[smine]

So, we're all staying or leaving for safety?

[tsptalk]

I stayed. As I mentoned in today'scomments, as long as we stay above the 1107-1110 area, I feel we are OK. So far we have but we havea long day ahead of us.

[JerBer]

I'm sitting tight, hopefully this rollercoaster ride will stop!

Can't get out now anyways, I've got to stay the course on this one and wait until it rebounds... in the mean time I'm fighting the nausea in my stomach !

JerBer

[tsptalk]

Agree. If we jumped out today, we'd probably see a relief rally tomorrow.

I'm trying to start thinking a little more longer term now that the market has about shook off that longer term overbought condition we saw earlier this year. It is now more oversold but as we saw in January, it doesn't mean the market will do an about face. It takes a little time to develop. Basically, if I make a move I want to error on the side of being too bullish now. The first 4 months of the year caution was my motto. I'm hoping that changes going forward.

[JerBer]

Look on the bright side....... I could've been fully invested in the I fund, ouch!

JerBer

[Mr. Duke]

Ouch!!!!....Should have trusted my initial instincts to be out by Thursday....easy come easy go..............still sitting with .46% up. Haven't had a chance to see what drove the markets....I knew this morning the overseas markets were getting killed...option one was to cancel the sell order and continue to stay in or to let it execute and hope for the best....it didn't matter I was taking the hit...however I will lick my wounds tomorrow in the G and look to make another move back in probably next week....

Tom I can use the other site but I not sure if people will find it for the updated daily percent charts

[tsptalk]

Mr. Duke wrote:
Tom I can use the other site but I not sure if people will find it for the updated daily percent charts

I think most people use the "recent" button to find the new posts. I know I read your update before I even got here. We'll watch the "View" stat to see if people are going to it. I see it has been viewed 27 times in the first hour already.

Thanks

[Mr. Duke]

Tom,

Not a problem one way or the other, will continue loading onthe update site...Been a busyFriday and Saturday so up until now didI see the Carnage of Friday....*&%$(^*.....I sure hope I was back in the G on Friday A.M. I put in to gofrom I to the G on Wed before6 am.

Guess the roller coaster decide to give another ride two day losses (Thursday & Friday)

C-lost -24 cents

S - lost -43 cents

I- lost -57 cents

What's the plan folks....I would normally think time to get back in since we are at very low levels ....My gut says it is not over for a day or two...may get a gainer one day but will get hammer again for another day or two....I am thinking of staying put in the G and see what happens on Mon and Tues

Comments please.....Tom, FrizzB, Smine

Happy Mothers day (if applicable)

Dukester :dude: