June Jobs Report & Contest

[tsptalk]

Friday we get the June jobs report. Anyone want to make a prediction on the number of jobs gained / lost??

There's a blue travel mug up for grabs for the closest pick.

You can't pick a number already taken and each guess must be rounded to 1000's. (ex: +201,000, -14,000, +195,000, +176,000, -5,000, etc. - no 100's)


We'll take predictions until 12:00 midnight ET on Thursday night.

Thanks!

[tsptalk]

Estimates are currently in the +160,000 to +180,000 area.

[nnuut]

+166,000

[amoeba]

171,000

[Bquat]

179,000

[Firedog]

+151,000

[rcknfrewld]

i predict that whatever the number is the media will be orgasmic when they announce it

[tsptalk]

The only question I have is, will a good report be good or bad for stocks? Investors seemed more focused on the Fed than growth.

+162,000

[Frixxxx]

+156,000 - Good Luck all

[MrBowl]

126,000

[imike023]

164,000

[trek7k]

182,000

[uscfanhawaii]

+174,000 NEW JOBS!!
Which should be the 'sweet spot' for the jobs report. Not too low, not too high....just right! Allowing the market to continue its bullish ways UPWARD!
(Not sure if that is a prediction or just Hopium!) :blink:

[DreamboatAnnie]

+187,000

[Sensei]

+210,000

Why not?

[remark]

+168,000

[sstasel]

+175,000

[ebbnflow]

Analysts are expecting lower than +165,000. So, I'd say 173,000. :D

[weatherweenie]

I'm going to say, vaguely, the number will be better than expected.

[rcknfrewld]

don't we need something like +400,000 a month to consider our economy growing...maybe +200,000 just to keep up with the population growth

[nnuut]

don't we need something like +400,000 a month to consider our economy growing...maybe +200,000 just to keep up with the population growth
Very true but Obama says we are doing so good.:suspicious:

[Bronco07]

162,250 :D


You can't pick a number already taken and each guess must be rounded to 1000's. (ex: +201,000, -14,000, +195,000, +176,000, -5,000, etc. - no 100's)

[Handballer]

121

[tsptalk]

121
No '000' ?


You can't pick a number already taken and each guess must be rounded to 1000's. (ex: +201,000, -14,000, +195,000, +176,000, -5,000, etc. - no 100's)

[ILoveTDs]

176000

[clester]

187000

Sorry that was taken. 190,000

[jkenjohnson]

+160,500


You can't pick a number already taken and each guess must be rounded to 1000's. (ex: +201,000, -14,000, +195,000, +176,000, -5,000, etc. - no 100's)

[burrocrat]

if i make a guess of ###,500 does the system automatically round me up? down? or does my non-compliant guess just get disqualified?


Friday we get the June jobs report. Anyone want to make a prediction on the number of jobs gained / lost??

There's a blue travel mug up for grabs for the closest pick.

You can't pick a number already taken and each guess must be rounded to 1000's. (ex: +201,000, -14,000, +195,000, +176,000, -5,000, etc. - no 100's)


We'll take predictions until 12:00 midnight ET on Thursday night.

Thanks!

[uscfanhawaii]

if i make a guess of ###,500 does the system automatically round me up? down? or does my non-compliant guess just get disqualified?

I think what Burro is trying to say is....Jken and Bronco need to change their guesses to comply with the rule that their guess be even thousands (###,000). :nuts:

[burrocrat]

I think what Burro is trying to say is....Jken and Bronco need to change their guesses to comply with the rule that their guess be even thousands (###,000). :nuts:

actually i was trying to say 'can't you read ijjits?' but i like your interpretation better.

normally i don't read instructions either. but, like julia roberts, it was bold and in red so i hard a hard time ignoring it.

[tsptalk]

if i make a guess of ###,500 does the system automatically round me up? down? or does my non-compliant guess just get disqualified?
For you... disqualified. For jkenjohnson, we'll give him a chance to update it. :)



You can't pick a number already taken and each guess must be rounded to 1000's. (ex: +201,000, -14,000, +195,000, +176,000, -5,000, etc. - no 100's)

[burrocrat]

For you... disqualified. For jkenjohnson, we'll give him a chance to update it. :)

you mean i haven't been premptively disqualified yet? i will start researching my guess then.

[tsptalk]

+160,500

FYI...

You can't pick a number already taken and each guess must be rounded to 1000's. (ex: +201,000, -14,000, +195,000, +176,000, -5,000, etc. - no 100's)

[tsptalk]

162,250 :D

FYI...

You can't pick a number already taken and each guess must be rounded to 1000's. (ex: +201,000, -14,000, +195,000, +176,000, -5,000, etc. - no 100's)

[chriscamma]

Friday we get the June jobs report. Anyone want to make a prediction on the number of jobs gained / lost??

There's a blue travel mug up for grabs for the closest pick.

You can't pick a number already taken and each guess must be rounded to 1000's. (ex: +201,000, -14,000, +195,000, +176,000, -5,000, etc. - no 100's)


We'll take predictions until 12:00 midnight ET on Thursday night.

Thanks!

187,000


You can't pick a number already taken and each guess must be rounded to 1000's. (ex: +201,000, -14,000, +195,000, +176,000, -5,000, etc. - no 100's)

+187,000

[weatherweenie]

183,000

[tsptalk]

187,000
Welcome, chriscamma! But ...


You can't pick a number already taken and each guess must be rounded to 1000's. (ex: +201,000, -14,000, +195,000, +176,000, -5,000, etc. - no 100's)

+187,000

[RealMoneyIssues]

+146,000

[RealMoneyIssues]

So far???



121
handballer


126
mrbowl


146

realmoneyissues



151

Firedog


156
frixxxx


160

Estimate


162
tsptalk


164
imike023


166
Nnuut


168
remark


171
Amoeba


173
ebbnflow


174
uscfanhawaii


175
sstasel


176
ilovetds


179
bquat


180

Estimate



182
trek7k


183
weatherweenie


187
dreamboatannie


190
clester


210
sensei

[tsptalk]

Closed.

[James48843]

220+. (sorry- I didn't see the closed sign till just now. )

[tsptalk]

Actual +195,000.


Sorry that was taken. 190,000

It's clester!!

PM me your shipping info for the Travel Mug.

Thanks for playing everybody!

[James48843]

June payroll employment increases (+195,000); unemployment rate unchanged (7.6%)Last edited Fri Jul 5, 2013, 08:35 AM USA/ET - Edit history (1) (http://www.tsptalk.com/?com=thread&address=1014527901&info=1#edits)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JUNE 2013


Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 195,000 in June, and the
unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in leisure and
hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, health
care, and financial activities.

Household Survey Data

....
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult women
(6.8 percent) edged up in June, while the rates for adult men (7.0
percent), teenagers (24.0 percent), whites (6.6 percent), blacks (13.7
percent), and Hispanics (9.1 percent) showed little or no change. The
jobless rate for Asians was 5.0 percent (not seasonally adjusted), down
from 6.3 percent a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

In June, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks
or more) was essentially unchanged at 4.3 million. These individuals
accounted for 36.7 percent of the unemployed. Over the past 12 months,
the number of long-term unemployed has declined by 1.0 million. (See
table A-12.)
....

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised
from +149,000 to +199,000, and the change for May was revised from
+175,000 to +195,000. With these revisions, employment gains in April
and May combined were 70,000 higher than previously reported.

Read more: Employment Situation Summary (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)



195- not bad. Not bad at all, considering the hit from the sequestor.

[tsptalk]

Anomaly or new trend?...

Full time jobs fall dramatically. Part time jobs up big.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/07/June%20Full%20vs%20Part%20Time%20Jobs_2_0.jpg


http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/07/June%20Full%20vs%20Part%20Time%20Jobs%20historic.j pg



Source: Obamacare Strikes: Part-Time Jobs Surge To All Time High; Full-Time Jobs Plunge By 240,000 | Zero Hedge (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-05/obamacare-strikes-part-time-jobs-surge-all-time-high-full-time-jobs-plunge-240000)

[Frixxxx]

Anomaly or new trend?...

Full time jobs fall dramatically. Part time jobs up big.
Source: Obamacare Strikes: Part-Time Jobs Surge To All Time High; Full-Time Jobs Plunge By 240,000 | Zero Hedge (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-05/obamacare-strikes-part-time-jobs-surge-all-time-high-full-time-jobs-plunge-240000)

The bulk of the gains--75,000--came in the hospitality industry of bartending and waiters.


Summer jobs, will these be gone by the end of summer?

[PLANO]

I think it's a trend to avoid the added costs of Obamacare. Both of my college age sons have to hold 2 part-time jobs now because their primary employer told them that if they gave them 30 hours/week they would have to give them full insurance coverage (even though they don't need it). So they each had to get a second job and get roughly 15-20 hours from each with no benefits.

[uscfanhawaii]

http://g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/55840/julyjobs_large.png

4 Things to Know About June's Jobs Report (http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/mfool/SIG=130kcmslq/*http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/07/05/4-things-to-know-about-junes-jobs-report.aspx?source=eogyholnk0000001)
is a good article from Motley Fool about the Job data in general. The above 6-month rolling average from that article is especially telling. It really shows the progress of the recession and the recovery. :cool:

[czapor1967]

my bad I didn't know it was over! :embarrest: