View Full Version : Interfund Transfer 6/14 for 6/15/05
tsptalk
06-14-2005, 08:59 AM
I am making my final move out of stocks this morning going 100% G fund (interfund transfer) before today's deadline.
The market is showing strength this morning and I will use it to move my remaining 30% I had in the S fund into the G fund.
Hope the strength holds for you.
You should get .01 tomorrow in G fund.
The action now to me looks iffy. Do not think indexes will be up at the close.
But as you can tell I do not put myneck on the line here.
:P
Good move Tom.
I was wrong.
Thought the experts would read the 5.4% yoy core inflation rate and trade on it.
Fed is no where near done. :shock:
Volume was horrible. We know what happens after low volume bounces :D.
tsptalk wrote:
I am making my final move out of stocks this morning going 100% G fund (interfund transfer) before today's deadline.
The market is showing strength this morning and I will use it to move my remaining 30% I had in the S fund into the G fund.
You just caught another $0.09 move up in the S fund. :^
I probably should've held my position a few more days than I did - oh well, that's hindsight for ya. :@
tsptalk
06-14-2005, 08:29 PM
It's just so tough to time it to the day.
I agree.
Take GM and WMT out and the market was down very hard today.
The horrible sales report caused a short covering rally that forced us to buy stock :(.
GM up over 4 and WMT up nearly 3 - because of a weak sales report.
Does that make sense?
:(
tsptalk wrote:
It's just so tough to time it to the day.
OK! but why the move entirely to the G-fund? Is this the reason?
"As I mentioned yesterday, I believe this week could be the last hurrah for the market before we see a pullback. That may or may not turn out to be true but it is amazing how similar the 1994 chart is to today's chart."
Got anything else you would want to share?
Rgds! :) Spaf
tsptalk
06-15-2005, 12:42 AM
Spaf wrote:
"As I mentioned yesterday, I believe this week could be the last hurrah for the market before we see a pullback. That may or may not turn out to be true but it is amazing how similar the 1994 chart is to today's chart."
Got anything else you would want to share?
Yes, that and the fact thatit is triple witchingweek. We have been getting one bad day on triple witching week lately and we've talked about the week following options expiration week beinghistoricallyweaker than a random week.
So it made sense to get out on the next up day.
The spike after lunch was a battle between the shorts.
It was fun.
:) I bagged some big ones then.
Tom has it right the market action this week is really tough because it is a lot more then you see on the news. There is a whole world of other stuff going on that should be reported but is not.
Now you can see why there is a lot of economic data during trip witch week - it is easy to spin the data now.
I tried to explain that today in a couple post. I probably confused a lot of folks. So I will go back to just the vanilla stuff here. :D Should be an interesting day today. Short squeeze or sell off? Like gunfighters at the OK Coral - who is going to blink first?
Happy trading.
when interfund transfers are made, are you buying at todays closing or the
next daysclosing?
vic wrote:
when interfund transfers are made, are you buying at todays closing or the
next daysclosing?
Depends on when U submitted the IFT! Before 12:00EST = COB that day. After 12:00EST = COB following day. OK! ;) Spaf
tsptalk wrote:
Yes, that and the fact thatit is triple witchingweek. We have been getting one bad day on triple witching week lately and we've talked about the week following options expiration week beinghistoricallyweaker than a random week.
So it made sense to get out on the next up day.
Been rechecking $TRAN vs other indicies and vs The Dow Theory. Basically we have a contradiction: they are not confirming each other. Maybe too soon?
My indicators are becoming an erratic traffic light!
I don't guess it would hurt to sit on the sidelines for a while.
The AM market opened with a gap up, and krude was up! Someone is a rocking the boat!
Capital preservation is rule one. The G-fund could well be a safe move.
Thanks Tom! ;) Spaf
The fed saved the market again with their Beige Book.
:)
TheProphet
06-16-2005, 07:24 AM
Tom, Sapf,
I have been extremely busy just reading and doing my things without sharing...
I highly respect both of your opinions and I agree with both you that it is timeof geting out... but I not totally sure ifthis is the day neither the week... I was thinking more the first week of July or so... the reason is that in the linear regression analysis the C fund has not cross to the uper part of the forcast line and for the S fund just did it couple days ago... neither of both(C, S)hadraisedonuper side of theprediction lineas historicallyalways do it... I do not know how to attached Excel files on the post reply messeage... but Ican send the fileso Tomso canposted somehow and share it with the TSPtalk comunity... bottomline my humble and personal opinion and I may be wrongis that there are still few repeat few and only few more days to squeeze before the market goes south for the summeron its 10% correction or so... beforeit begin its new up cycle sometime in October or so again... :^
Good Luck...
lkatteng wrote:
Tom, Sapf,
I highly respect both of your opinions and I agree with both you that it is timeof geting out... but I not totally sure ifthis is the day neither the week... I was thinking more the first week of July or so...
Good Luck...
Hi Ikat .... missed U!
Transportations are generally a indicator of the economy, they are very sensitive. They were also referenced in The Dow Theory as spotting possible early trends in the economy. See: StockCharts.com using symbol $TRAN.
When $SPX and $TRAN indicate the same direction, we would have a confirmation.
IMHO, right now we have a bag of mixed signals. So, I look at a lot of them. And I maintain an alert stop of -12 S&P.
I can take the gradual advance, just fine. At least it keeps out the pirates! However, anytime oil is above $55. The alarm can go off, and panic sets in. I can sell ST in a moment, but not TSP. So, just have to watch it very closely.
Have a good one! ;) Spaf
tsptalk
06-16-2005, 08:39 AM
lkatteng wrote:
Tom, Sapf,
I have been extremely busy just reading and doing my things without sharing...
I highly respect both of your opinions and I agree with both you that it is timeof geting out... but I not totally sure ifthis is the day neither the week... I was thinking more the first week of July or so...
Hi LK -
You could be right. After the July 4th weekend is a possibility. I'm always early. :)
But I believe it is better to be early than late in this situation because you never know.
Tom
vectorman
06-17-2005, 08:42 AM
Tom, I have been reading your comments for about a year now. For you to move to a 100% G position tells me your pretty serious about expecting a pull-back. I remember you saying that you usually like to be invested, even if it's just a small amount. I see your comparision between the 1994 and 2005 SPX charts. I notice in the 1994 chart theEMA(200) is trending down and in the 2005 it's trending up. Also in the 2005 chart the SPX is in a closer position to break above its previous high, where in 1994 it was far short of it. There seems to be alot of money on the sidelines as many are waiting for the next big drop like last year.Except for the S fund, the last two weeks have been a pretty tight consolidation or channel for the C and I fund, but both have started an upward trend. Does this period look a little more like what was seen in Nov leading into Dec of last fall? High oil prices then didn't seem to slow the Bull down once it broke out.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=SP500&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=0&maval= 9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&state=8&sid= 3377&style=320&time=8&freq=1&nosettings=1&rand=770 7&mocktick=1
TheProphet
06-17-2005, 10:33 AM
Tom,
You convence me... it is better to be early than late... I am getting out... into the G today... Have a Great Weekend, :^
Leon
TheProphet
06-17-2005, 10:36 AM
Spaf,
What you said make sense to me... I am geeting out now to G...and as Tom said is better to be early than late... Have a Great Weekend...:^
Leon
tsptalk
06-17-2005, 01:13 PM
That's the nice thing about following this site. I'm always early so the readers usually react later and do better than I do. :) Today looks like a good day to get out. Wish I waited. :(
pyriel
06-19-2005, 06:38 PM
tsptalk wrote:
You could be right. After the July 4th weekend is a possibility. I'm always early. :)
But I believe it is better to be early than late in this situation because you never know.
Tom
Tom,
Don't forget, that your indicator always tell you to go in early as well. Are you going to play it differently this time?
P
tsptalk
06-19-2005, 07:19 PM
pyriel wrote:
Don't forget, that your indicator always tell you to go in early as well. Are you going to play it differently this time?
I guess I should. It's tough though. If I miss it, I would kick myself in the butt. It happened the first week of 2005. I waited to get out and got burned. The market will humble me whatever I do.
tsptalk wrote:
I guess I should. It's tough though. If I miss it, I would kick myself in the butt. It happened the first week of 2005. I waited to get out and got burned. The market will humble me whatever I do.
Great investing insight here.
Who thought the market was going to go down the first week of January?
Who thinks the market is going down next week?
:D When youread the newslines and the experts saying- market set to drop next week. Then I go long. :)
Has worked out great so far this year.
vectorman
06-20-2005, 04:03 PM
vectorman wrote:
Tom, I have been reading your comments for about a year now. For you to move to a 100% G position tells me your pretty serious about expecting a pull-back. I remember you saying that you usually like to be invested, even if it's just a small amount. I see your comparision between the 1994 and 2005 SPX charts. I notice in the 1994 chart theEMA(200) is trending down and in the 2005 it's trending up. Also in the 2005 chart the SPX is in a closer position to break above its previous high, where in 1994 it was far short of it. There seems to be alot of money on the sidelines as many are waiting for the next big drop like last year.Except for the S fund, the last two weeks have been a pretty tight consolidation or channel for the C and I fund, but both have started an upward trend. Does this period look a little more like what was seen in Nov leading into Dec of last fall? High oil prices then didn't seem to slow the Bull down once it broke out.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=SP500&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=0&maval= 9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&state=8&sid= 3377&style=320&time=8&freq=1&nosettings=1&rand=770 7&mocktick=1
tsptalk
06-20-2005, 09:48 PM
vectorman wrote:
Tom, I have been reading your comments for about a year now. For you to move to a 100% G position tells me your pretty serious about expecting a pull-back. I remember you saying that you usually like to be invested, even if it's just a small amount. I see your comparision between the 1994 and 2005 SPX charts. I notice in the 1994 chart theEMA(200) is trending down and in the 2005 it's trending up. Also in the 2005 chart the SPX is in a closer position to break above its previous high, where in 1994 it was far short of it. There seems to be alot of money on the sidelines as many are waiting for the next big drop like last year.Except for the S fund, the last two weeks have been a pretty tight consolidation or channel for the C and I fund, but both have started an upward trend. Does this period look a little more like what was seen in Nov leading into Dec of last fall? High oil prices then didn't seem to slow the Bull down once it broke out.
V-man -
It still looks like 1994 and is alsoresembling the 2004 consolidation.
You are correct, I don't usually go to 100% G fund unless the three legs of the bull market are not strong. With psychology in negative territory, and monetary condition getting close to negative, it does give me enough ammo to go 100% G. (vluation is still quite strong).
Tom
Don't fight the fed!!!!
When the head central banker does not understand what is going on. How can we?
Just look at the recent data Philly fed - HORRIBLE. Retail sales (70% of this economy) - HORRIBLE. Leading Indicators - 9 out of 10 down. Only thing up was STOCK prices. :shock: Only thing up was STOCK PRICES. :shock: Least we forget the current account debt last quarter 195.1B. :shock:
Great economy the level of Chinese crap in a shopping cart. Just awesome.:?
puertorico
06-27-2005, 09:23 AM
Waiting for greenspan thurdays ........100-g
I like to move some to f zone today :D
tsptalk
06-28-2005, 10:15 AM
Well, this kind of spoiled my "a few more down days" plan. It's tempting to think "this is it!" and want to get back in. I'm not sure if that would be the right move, a bounce was expected. This was a news (consumer confidence) driven spike up during the 1st hour (emotional) of trading. I want to see how the day plays out.
I believe I talked about thatconfidence indicator before. It can also be used as a contrarian indicator in that a strong reading tends to mean lower stockprices down the road, and vice versa.
I'm notmaking a move. I want to see this hold and also see if it follows through. Still 100% G.
Tom
I'm not doing anything 'til the FOMC comments come out. Doing anything prior to that only leaves you vulnerable to whatever Greenspan says Thursday. :shock:
puertorico
06-28-2005, 11:43 AM
I'll keep 100-g-fund aleast until next week .
The market not go down in a row ,
Three day down in a row & 1 day
up ,then after the up day the market do more damage
in his way down .. I think the risk still big ,Let's see what
green... say about the economyif good or bad first... :)
puertorico
06-28-2005, 12:08 PM
Tom I read u market commets .
Says that seasonality the first 5 days are avg. green
but las year was red , [s&p 500 from 11.41 to 11.09]
So I can say :
Thatwill make the bets a green days front friday 1st july to thursdays the 7th.
The point is that seasonality is good & last year was bad that make less risk
& better gains oportunities seasonality talkin.. :^common sense no :shock:
Not body know, but, Interesting point :D
At 11:30 AM made change to 70% "S" and 30%"C". Tired of watching
from the "G" fund. Time to step up to the plate.:^
tsptalk
06-28-2005, 04:48 PM
I could be wrong, but a rally after six consecutive down days (for the Dow)looks more like a trap, even if it was impressive. Volume was low but not too bad.
Possible end of the month window dressing and a rush to take advantge of a day that finally saw lower oil prices.
As I mentioned above, my "plan" is thrown out the window (looking for more down days in anattempt to get back in Friday). The market didn't have a chance to become fully oversold so I think we may flop around until next week. Remember the intermediate term indicators are still overbought and that could a little time to resolve itself.
Beware the trap.
ou81200
06-28-2005, 05:10 PM
Tom---
We might have missed this rally, but we did'nt lose any money either;).
To me, any day you don't lose is a good day. I'll play it safe in the G fund for awhile.
You are probably correct. I just have a lot of faith and do believe that the market
will do better. I do not see anything to gain by sitting on the side lines. I read everything you all post and I'm impressed with the knowledge on the board. Just tired of waiting for the "PENNY" rise in the G fund. Time to have a little fun. It's only money!!HA
tsptalk
06-28-2005, 05:18 PM
vic -
Long term you are right, the pennies won't get you anywhere. As ou81200 said, we're on the sideline just trying not to lose what we made over the last two months. I'm hoping we see a better buying opportunityin few days/weeks.
Good luck!
Tom, I'm with you. I hope we all make a lot of money. Just trying to have a little fun.
Wish I understood the I fund better. It appears to be doing real well. I had some
money in it for a while. Got out of it even though I was making money because I did
not know WHY I was making money. What stock markets are they tied to? Any Asian
markets? If someone has a little time and would like to explain it, I would be great
ful. Until next time, live long and prosper:^
tsptalk
06-29-2005, 01:10 AM
vic wrote:
What stock markets are they tied to? Any Asian
markets? If someone has a little time and would like to explain it, I would be great
http://www.tsptalk.com/funds.html (http://www.tsptalk.com/funds.html)
tsptalk
06-29-2005, 01:14 AM
Two trends I've noticed since starting this site:
- Whenever the market goes my way and I get a lot of "attaboys", the market quickly goes against me.
- Whenever my return is lagging behind the return of the S&P 500, but then passes thereturn of the S&P 500, the market quickly goes against me.
It's never easy. :oo
Thank you for the info. Tom, you do a great job. I have learned a lot from
everyone on this site. I enjoy it . Keep up the good wprk:^
puertorico
06-29-2005, 10:36 AM
F-was 3 pennys down :^
today from 100-g to 100-F
effective rates hike days :D
puertorico
06-30-2005, 10:55 AM
Back 100-G That was 1 day fishiing a f-penny :D
puertorico
06-30-2005, 11:44 PM
not bad at all for a bad day in the market
a get 2 cent in f :Djust fishing :D
puertorico
07-01-2005, 10:56 AM
I'm fishing i-fund becouse have less room to go down
& today euro is down :DI saw coolhand when 30 -i-fund
Maybe We are thinking the same :D
50-G 30-F 20-I
puertorico
08-08-2005, 11:03 AM
from 100 G today monday
went70-G 30-S for tuesday
In this pullback s fun has 3 days down
and today have been hammered too.
so risk reward after 4 days down is time
for a rebound . Then go down again
one day in ,30-s and tomorrow go back on
100-g for wed & the rest of the week :^
fishing in the way down is not that easy :Dsell sell sell :D
puertorico
08-09-2005, 09:18 AM
Lero Lero I'm a Genious :D
In interes hikes the market almoust always is up :^
It is logic becouse is make it look likewas indispensable the int.hikes .
It is automatic and people gonna say .....see the
market is up ,that an excuse to do the hikes ... :^
I 'm getting out for tomorrow the market gonna be
selling off and comback friday after 2 days sell off
iscoming a rally :^I plan to stay in the game for
a week from friday 12 .
Wao Wao I; gonna startcharging $$$$$for my recomendation :D
Cauption tomorrow sell sell sell wednesday a thursday
800 short ... :D
the part a said I'm a genious is just joking ... :dude:
The rest is true .. :^:D
puertorico
08-09-2005, 10:24 AM
just went to 100-G
If rate hikes go up, that's means the economic
is good and in a couple days I want to be in,
becouse the economic gonna show up .
Just 2 or 3 days the people get or stay out
to see what happen. And what happen next ?
the market rally up after rate hikes . The market
has been doing that for a year unstill now
Just days of the rally up "that's what I thinks :D
tsptalk
08-09-2005, 08:57 PM
puertorico wrote:
Lero Lero I'm a Genious :D
Great call PR!!
puertorico
08-11-2005, 10:47 AM
DId transfer already from 100-g to ...
20-g
40-f
20-c
20-s for next week will put 100%-stock
the economic has to show up what is
made of .... :shock::Dbefore option ,friday,
usually is up ... :^ Who want to get in the bus ? :D
Show-me
08-11-2005, 10:58 AM
I'm there!
puertorico
08-11-2005, 12:24 PM
good :^I'm not alone :D
There more space in the buss .Tomorrow
is the last call, to get in ,ok the buss is
living tomorrow friday 12 AT 11:00 am central time :D
puertorico
08-12-2005, 10:35 AM
tODAY LOOk ugly ,oil is climbing and my plan changing
hitting the road to - F
20-g 40-f 20-c 20-s today
go to 100-F monday
sell sell sell :D
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