The Hindenburg Omen

[tsptalk]

I just added this to the comments... (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html)

Update: 10:05 AM - I talked about some of the indicators showing signs of a sell off below. I don't have time to explain it here, but one of them is called the "Hindenburg Omen". It may be nonsense but if you look it up, you will see there have been some major sell offs after it was triggered. Given this morning's market action, I may be stepping aside again. I will keep you informed on the message board and, if I make a change, I will send out an email alert.

Tom

[smine]

With all the disappointment with international, will buying up some I fund be a thought?

[tsptalk]

Do you mean a contrarian play? Buy because things look bad?...Maybe.

I'm am going to step aside and see what develops.

[smine]

Yeah, exactly. Buy low, sell high.

[tsptalk]

Ugly day for stocks and bonds. Something to do with China's over heating economy.

[Mr. Duke]

I'm with Smine..... I've been waiting for the hard hit to jump back in... can't decide what yet.... Have been working the I fund hard since probably December...S & I are probably toss ups ....Maybe I will do 50-50 S & I....Tom's pulling back ....what you gonna do Smine?

[puertorico]

I GONNA pull the trigger

I may be in the game for friday

and monday

:?thinking about it:?

40-c 35-s 25-i :shock:

[smine]

I'm a gonna wait a little to watch the market; it's on an upswing now. Probably leaning towards jumping in some CSI. Will hold out for now....all relative to Friday!;)

[tsptalk]

The new AAII sentiment survey numbers came out. 50% bullish, 21% bearish. A lot better than the 64/14but 30-40% bearish is a better indicator of a bottom. In late March, the bearish figurewent over 40% before we saw a rebound. But I'm not sure if I can be that patient.

[smine]

So in English what's that mean to you? Bulls and Bears confuse me. Market is flattening out now.......sit tight or jump in?

[puertorico]

:?

[puertorico]

I'm in :shock:I PULLED THE TRIGGER

50-c 35-s 15-i "friday"

[tsptalk]

smine wrote:
So in English what's that mean to you? Bulls and Bears confuse me. Market is flattening out now.......sit tight or jump in?

I stayed out.

When someone is bullish, they believe themarket is going to go up.
If someone is bearish, they believe the market is going to go down.

I have to run right now and I'll add to this later but in a nut shell, if too many people are bullish the market tends to go down. The opposite of what you might think. The opposite is also true, too many bears means the market is likely to go up.

I'll explain why later. I'll be back...

Tom

[smine]

Yeah. It's all dropping so I figure buy low for Friday then watch it sore! We'll see. I've lost before; gained before.

[tsptalk]

You and many other posters here sure have the right attitude. Have you noticed how nervous I get when the markets head down? You folks can't wait to get in. pretty impressive.

Back to bulls and bears. I'll see if I can come up with an analogy that makes sense. The reason why that contrarian sentiment works is this... let's taketwo glasses and a pitcher with enough water to fill one of them. The water represents the herd and one glass represents the bulls, the otherone bears.

Let's look at an extreme example... If you use all the water and completely fill up the bullish glass you would have 100% bulls, 0% bears. At that point, there is no more room for bulls (or buying). Everybody who wanted to buy is in the market. You can't add new water so the only things that can happen are the glasswill stay put or you can pour some into the bear glass and take profits. So 100% bulls means no more upward movement.

So the more bulls, the fewer buyers are left and visa versa. It works like clock work. I hope that analogy made sense. I just made it up. :P

Tom

[tsptalk]

The Hindenburg Omen strikes again! Oh the humanity :end:

The first support area of 1118 didn't hold. The trendline just under 1110 has held so far. If that doesn't hold, the next step would be a test of the March lows near 1087.

[tsptalk]

The good news is that fear is showing its ugly head. That "sell at any cost" attitude is just what we need to head up again. I'm almost wishing I joined those of you that made a move to get in fortomorrow. But I'm worrying that the selling could continue into Tuesday's Fed, interest rate meeting.

[Mr. Duke]

Not sure of you analogy Tom....probably makes sense ....just too early for me to follow...

You know ....we have never added in the "shorting of stocks" factor.... When everyone is betting on stocks dropping and then when they do start to run up all the short positions race to unload shares to prevent major losses...consequently all the buying causes a major run up in share values...Don't think we are affected anywhereto the same extent in mutual funds though

Well Nikki futures are bleak....-254....

Just heard something last night from a co-trader that I was unaware of...is this correct

If Iwas originally in the "G" and I decided to get in a fund before mid-night ....then the following day if I see the market is crashing...If I rechange my position back to the G before 11 am cst can I avoid being in the fund and losing money?

[tsptalk]

If Iwas originally in the "G" and I decided to get in a fund before mid-night ....then the following day if I see the market is crashing...If I rechange my position back to the G before 11 am cst can I avoid being in the fund and losing money?

If it was Monday night just before midnight and you get into the G fund, it would take affect Wednesday morning. If you decided to change before the noon ET deadline on Tuesday, that new transfer would be the only one that would go through, but it too would not take affect until Wednesday morning.

And yes, short covering rallies can be very strong.

[Mr. Duke]

Thanks,,that is the way it worked out



I went from the G fund Wed at 2100 hrs to the I Fund and it appears by my account dollar loss that only dollar loss I had was for the .15% on Friday..Someone else told be that I would be in on Thursday....

enjoy :)

[puertorico]

sorry but what means short covering ?

short-covering can put the market down

or up ?

or both ?:?

[tsptalk]

Short covering = buying back stocks that you sold short.

Selling short = Selling stocks you don't own hoping it goes down so you can buy it (short cover) later at a lower price.

[puertorico]

Tom said...

...And yes, short covering rallies can be very strong.
----------------------------------------------------------------

so,selling short make market down

and short covering rallies" to the greeen"

That's what I understand u says

thanks Tom.:)

[tsptalk]

Yes. Selling short does the same to the market as selling does,and short covering the same as buying.