Aggie76 Account Talk

[Aggie76]

Just found this WebSite a couple days ago. I have no experience in investing and as a result only change positions one or two times a year.

Jun 2, I went 100% G fund for the first time. After reading today's post, I decided to move some over to F fund. I have never been in the F fund before. I am normally 100 percent in the C, S, of I fund.

The reason I went to G yesterday was due to the run up in the past month. I was thinking the market would go down in the short term. I will be back in the Cfund at 100 % probably by the end of the month.

[Birchtree]

Aggie 76,

You must be a graduate of that great university in Texas. Hope you have boots.

If you wait until the end of the month to go back to C fund, you run the risk of leaving a lot of potential gains on the table. Not much to be had in the F fund at this time in the interest rate cycle - unless you have accurate pistols to trade. Good luck.

permabull#2

[Aggie76]

Yes to both, Texa A&M and I do still havemy boots. Thanks for the advice. I have NO "accurate pistols to trade". Just taking a "breather" after the run up in May.

[tsptalk]

Welcome Aggie! Good luck.

Tom

[Aggie76]

Trying to catch that penny that members are talking about.

I will probably stay in G for the remainder of the week.

[Aggie76]

Expecting the penny tonight based on information from the board. Chasing a penny or two over in F (50%) until retreating back in the G for the next penny.

[Aggie76]

I've made more IFT's this past week than I've made in the past two years. Hope it pays off.

[Birchtree]

Aggie 76,

Have you contemplated why it is that you are making thses moves at this time - after being complacent for the last 2 years? How does your luck run - you may be active just as we are getting ready to end this side ways motion - and start moving upward with strength and significant momentum. You are having some fun, right? That's really what counts - stay informed.

[Aggie76]

I noticed that I had roughly the same amount of money (a few dollars more) in my TSP Dec 31, 2004 as I did mid May 2005. I had S60 and C40 during that time. I wanted to do better than even so searched the web for "help" and found this site. At the moment I'm kind of following the majority on the board.

Brian.

[Aggie76]

Birchtree,

I just went back to check out the share prices.

Dec 31 (C $12.91; S $14.73)

May 31 (C $12.79; S $14.55)

Not much progress. I only have 12 to 15 years to retirement. :cool:

Aggie76.

[Birchtree]

Aggie 76,

Yes, but you should have gotten some very nice pricing with dollar cost averaging you contributions. That was a heck of a 900 point correction we experienced from 3/7 to the bottom of 4/20. The C fund got all the way down to $12.38, and the S fund reached a low of $13.63. Actually the C fund bottomed at $12.25. And you should have been nibbling all the way back up another 500 points. Good luck on the quick draw. Wasn't the Lone Ranger a Texas Ranger before he put on the mask?

Dennis- permabull#2

[Aggie76]

I will take the gamble on "Triple Witching Monday". I will beheadingnorth next week up to VA - TDY.:DI'll have my notebook with me to keep in touch with TSP Talk. Great info on the site.

I read 15 investment boards.

All of them are going long for triple witching monday.

I hope we do not all get burned.

I did my transfer last night. This morning they all have the light bulb of the Monday sure thing.

That worries me.

I may drop back to 25% S and C.

Hate to cloud the waters but when fools rush in.:shock:

[Aggie76]

I got restless and moved 30% to S Fund effective COB today (Jun 23). I do not like being 100% in G. I hope I didn't jump too soon. I guess I'll find out tomorrow.

[Aggie76]

It looks as if I started to come out too soon. I thought about jumping back into the G but will stay 30% S. At least for now.

[Aggie76]

I am following The Technician into the F fund. Not 100% but only 25%.

Thanks to all posters on their thoughts.

[Aggie76]

Hiding in the G Fund again. Looking forthe pennyto be paid on the 20th.

[Aggie76]

Taking advice and going to F fund. Only 50% though. Looks like I bought the I fund (10%) at it's peak. I hope my luck will be better with this IFT.

[Birchtree]

Sorry for snooping here, but I do hope you can tread water, because in two months from now the F fund will still be at $10.62. Tonto says even he doesn't have the courage to do that trade. I'd rather take a beating than drown. See ya.

Dennis

[Aggie76]

I don't mind all. Thanks. I rarely go into the F Fund and when I do it's only for a short period of time. I've spent most of my time in the C Fund since starting my TSP years ago. I hide in the G Fund, like I am doing now, every once in awhile.

[tsptalk]

Birchtree wrote:
Sorry for snooping here, but I do hope you can tread water, because in two months from now the F fund will still be at $10.62.
Where will it be in one month? How about next week? Bond traders are listening. ;)

[Aggie76]

I figured I would try and buy on today's slight down turn with C-25% and S-25%. I tried to buy on strength of the I fund last week and managed to buy at it's peak. Lucky me. So now I will try and buy on weakness. G fund paid the penny so I will stay F-50% fora few more days.

[Aggie76]

I just updated my TSP contributions. I was putting in the max of 15% per pay period. Now I am adding an additional $140 per pay period using the catch up provision since I am 51.

[Aggie76]

Strange results today. Looks as if AGG broke even but the F fund gained a penny.

Looks like EFA gained .38% but the I fund lost six cents.

[vectorman]

Aggie76 wrote:
Strange results today. Looks as if AGG broke even but the F fund gained a penny.

Looks like EFA gained .38% but the I fund lost six cents.




Use the link below to get a bettervalue for the I fund. Use EAFE, look under 'In US Dollars', 'Daily'. For today it showed negative (.356%).You can check it sometimesafter 2:30pm(est). Just delete the number for the day shown at the upper right and insert the current day and hit'GO'.Usually by 3:00pm, you can get the chart updated.

http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html

[Aggie76]

2005 was a terrible year for me. Only 2.51% return. Seems like I was always in the wrong place at the wrong time. Would of done betterif I had beenin the G fund for the whole year. Starting 2006 with 100% C fund. I'm thinking of staying in C for the whole year.

[Aggie76]

I have 100% of contributions going into the C Fund. I will contribute $20k for the year ($15k plus $5k catch up). 11 more years to work on increasingmy TSP account so I can retire at age 62. Looking at getting 8.25%/year average return and maximum contributions to reach my goal.

[Aggie76]

I think I will stay C all year. I looked at my record versus the C fund for the past 11 years. The C fund has been positive for 8 of those years and I only beat the C fund 1 of those times. I did manage to beat the C fund all three years the C fund was negative. I think the C fund will be positive this year. Based on my poor performance against the C fund, I will go for a tie this year.

[ocean]

Aggie,

If you decided 100% on C for the rest of this year. You may want to follow Birchtree's foot step. He's been on 100% C for awhile and has been doing very well. He has good insight about the market trend. Look at his TSP portfolio from his early posts then you will know what I am talking about.

Ocean

[Birchtree]

Aggie 76,

Holding 100% C fund for the next 12 months is a fine strategy. I'd like to hold out for a $17.00 price - that's only three points - but might take until 2008 to get there. As long as you continue to dollar cost average you can easily ride any volatility - I've been a cycle rider for many years and the positions just keep growing. You'll actually make a better return as dollars go versus a percentage. I mean really, a 14% gain of $100,000 is not that great in terms of dollars - not that I'm being overly critical - but it takes so much extra effort. You have plenty of time to accumulate shares. If you see an indepth correction developing - move your bulk cash and just continue with dollar cost averaging until you bump the bottom - it will hurt so good all the way down.

Ocean,

Any chance you might lend me some of that 80% G money you aren't doing anything with at the moment - I got a great place to invest it - yes exactly in the unadorable and unappreciated as well as boring C fund. You have arrived with a power account and you have tremendous potential waiting for you - just grab the brass ring. The C fund has at least five years of undervaluation built into it - the risk at this point is minimal in comparison to the S fund which has been on a seven year tear. To me the smell of bull manure smells like new green money - come get some. I gotta go find out what some of the Elliot folks are saying - they should still be bearish. Take care.

Dennis-perma bull #2

[Fivetears]

I never could understand the rationale behind leaving (or putting) money in a failing (falling) fund. You know... the C Fund only went .07% for December '05, and only 4.96% for the entire last year!

The I fund would have made you that in just one week, if you had been in it just last week.

I get a real sinking feeling when I see my TSP contributions get taken away from me during profit taking / failing economies.

If you can just find a 1% improvement in your account balance (excluding your bi-weekly contributions) each month, you'll get 12% growth per year. 1% is EASY.

I'm shooting for 2% per month for 2006. Even in a failing US economy, or failing International economy, you can find 2%. It's possible. You just got to pay attention. You got to know when to hold'em, know when to fold'em. You know the song. :cool:

[yeskevin]

Well the problem is no one really knows with any degree of certainty what next week, month or year holds. You are looking at your scenarios with the knowledge of hindsight. I would really like to know the investing methodology you use to expect the following to be true:

“I'm shooting for 2% per month for 2006. Even in a failing US economy, or failing International economy, you can find 2%. It's possible. You just got to pay attention.”

[Birchtree]

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has tended to perform better following a gain during the first five trading days of January. In fact, following a gain during the first five trading days in January, the S&P 500 finished the year up 77% of the time.

When one is in accumulation mode - you buy nonperforming funds because you collect more shares at a reasonable price and there is only a few ways to accumulate more shares and dollar cost averaging into the realm of the unloved has its rewards. Sooner or later, and its often later - providence will shine light on the portflio and gains begin to blossom. The best blooms only need a dash of the mighty bull manure - and green money starts to grow, unfortunately sometimes unabashed. I'll take that problem. Take care

Dennis

[Fivetears]

Well the problem is no one really knows with any degree of certainty what next week, month or year holds. You are looking at your scenarios with the knowledge of hindsight. I would really like to know the investing methodology you use to expect the following to be true:

“I'm shooting for 2% per month for 2006. Even in a failing US economy, or failing International economy, you can find 2%. It's possible. You just got to pay attention.”
My investing methodology? Proactive Maket Timing. Read and listen to the news, markets, and this TSP Hurd. Then Buy Low... Sell High.

I've tried the "leave it alone" method; Doesn't suit me.

Let's just check all of our numbers out January 2007. I'm new to this MB as of Jan 06. I don't expect folks take anything I post as gospel. Lets just see how well we all do with a little help from this Message Board.

Good Luck to all.

[ocean]

Aggie 76,

Ocean,

Any chance you might lend me some of that 80% G money you aren't doing anything with at the moment - I got a great place to invest it - yes exactly in the unadorable and unappreciated as well as boring C fund. You have arrived with a power account and you have tremendous potential waiting for you - just grab the brass ring. The C fund has at least five years of undervaluation built into it - the risk at this point is minimal in comparison to the S fund which has been on a seven year tear. To me the smell of bull manure smells like new green money - come get some. I gotta go find out what some of the Elliot folks are saying - they should still be bearish. Take care.

Dennis-perma bull #2

Birchtree,

I know your strategy would work. I have been investing in C fund 100% for a long time and my port did become a power account as you referred. Before I joined this board I have been a L funds mixed guy when L funds were introduced. By studying the way the folks investing style here, I determine to make my return above the C fund and at least match the S/I funds this year (luckly my return was higher than the C last year). I am learning the market timing from the members' comments here and that's why I am now the G/F/C/S/I guy. My funds allocation now is all over the place and change very frequently and I hope I can ride on some of these up and down waves. Again, your postings are very valuable to me. Thanks.

Ocean