Anyone Buying Gold Here

[tsptalk]

Down another $140 an ounce today, is anybody taking a shot at a Gold trade here?

[RealMoneyIssues]

Down another $140 an ounce today, is anybody taking a shot at a Gold trade here?

Unless there is a black swan even to have this bounce sharply up, there is probably more downside risk... To be honest, I am not completely clear on why it is selling off.

I will wait to see what happens later in the week. If it continues to sell off, I may look at picking up some gold at $1200 or so.

[Birchtree]

I'll be dollar cost averaging into my current gold etfs - just increasing my position with golden prices. What an opportunity.

[weatherweenie]

Down another $140 an ounce today, is anybody taking a shot at a Gold trade here?

Unfortunately I bought AGQ about three weeks ago.

[Birchtree]

We apparently are seeing margin call selling in the gold market - this is most likely temporary. Let'em all get out but I'm staying.

[burrocrat]

no gold, but i'll start browsing the pawn shops for silver ingots if we can get below $20. problem is they don't like to sell it for less than they paid so they limit what is put out for sale and increase markup over spot to discourage buyers. they flat out tell you they have none, then when the price recovers all the sudden they have a ton of it again. i really only go there for the silver and used guns, and the gal in the jewelry dept. she likes to wear tank tops that are even more revealing when she bends down to pull the tray from the display case. sometimes i go in just to hold them and not buy anything.

[JTH]

Down another $140 an ounce today, is anybody taking a shot at a Gold trade here?

I'll project we go down to 100-105 before it bounces...in mid May

Weekly GLD Gold ETF
23361

[nnuut]

I'll buy when it gets back down to $325.00 an ounce again.:D

[sniper]

gold is the new apple :P

in all honesty i wouldn't touch it yet. how does the saying go? don't catch a falling knife unless you're made of teflon

[tsptalk]

Gold Trust Indicator (this is BEFORE today's big decline.)

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/041513a.gif

[mick504]

I'm curious, would people be willing to share what gold they purchase, for e.g. IAU, GLD, etc. I'm not into silver myself...too much bulk...hernia. Thanks!

[Sensei]

I don't have a lot of cash to throw around, and I treat my dividend stocks as buy and hold investments, so I'm not planning to sell them to raise cash. But I am going to start shifting my DCA's away from those stocks for a little while (maybe till summer) and into precious metals ETFs and mining stocks.

Buying SLV (prolly shoulda gone GLD...) and LNMIY today. See my thread for details on that.

My DCA's are small, so even if more weakness ensues, I'll be collecting shares little by little on the way down. Eventually when prices rise back up, I'll feel good about myself. Get rich slowly, I guess.

[rktect1]

In a couple weeks when it reaches $500

[nnuut]

April 16, 2013, 8:31 a.m. EDT
Gold’s fair value is $800 an ounce

Commentary: What price is justified by gold’s fundamentals?
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Gold’s bear market is just beginning.
That’s the depressing assessment from Claude Erb, a former commodities portfolio manager for Trust Company of the West, and co-author — with Campbell Harvey, a Duke University university finance professor — of an academic study from last June that is looking to be increasingly prophetic.
n that study, the authors calculate that gold’s fair value is close to $800 an ounce. Though many of gold’s true believers were inclined to dismiss such a bearish projection when their study came out, it’s beginning to be taken a lot more seriously: Bullion’s recent slaughter has eliminated more than 40% of what a year ago they concluded was bullion’s overvaluation — including $240 over the last week alone (http://www.tsptalk.com/story/gold-falls-sharply-copper-hit-after-china-data-2013-04-15). (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/golds-fair-value-is-800-an-ounce-2013-04-16?dist=beforebell)

Gold (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/golds-fair-value-is-800-an-ounce-2013-04-16?dist=beforebell)

[skidog]

Anybody have an opinion on Barrack Gold ABX and Silver Weaton SLW? I'm being hammered to the point where I feel like giving up..... Probably the worst time to give up.

[tsptalk]

They are certainly in bear markets but there's lots of overhead gaps that need to get filled.

[mick504]

I'll bet the assessment of $800 per oz...really sets some people on fire! I remember buying it back when it went to $800 years back....however needed cash so sold it lower than I bought it. The buy high sell low syndrome! Thanks for the study! I would probably buy at that price, however I don't see it going that low...too many speculators out there which moves prices up! Currently in cash...awaiting a market correction!

[Warrenlm]

no gold, but i'll start browsing the pawn shops for silver ingots if we can get below $20. problem is they don't like to sell it for less than they paid so they limit what is put out for sale and increase markup over spot to discourage buyers. they flat out tell you they have none, then when the price recovers all the sudden they have a ton of it again. i really only go there for the silver and used guns, and the gal in the jewelry dept. she likes to wear tank tops that are even more revealing when she bends down to pull the tray from the display case. sometimes i go in just to hold them and not buy anything.This is a family site. Want to clarify what you are holding?

[CrabClaw]

If gold goes into a sustained correction / slump all of the gold mining reality TV shows should go away.

I will take a closer look if it gets to $1200

[Bullitt]

I need a huge margin of safety to get involved with PM's. GDXJ and GDX are way oversold and nearing a good buy point when GDX hits $20 though GDXJ might be a better pick seeing that it's hitting all time lows.

Would never invest in GLD.

[Birchtree]

I did buy several hundred shares of GDXJ on Tuesday and am prepared to acquire more as it continues to weaken.

[mick504]

Wow...they've been in negative returen territory for some years now...a bit risky for me...thanks for the info though!

[konakathy]

I bought gold coins in 2005 @$700 and sold them all last year @$1650. Made a nice profit...paid cash for a new car, put away a 6 month emergency fund, and just paid for a 3 week adventure/vacation to South America. Gold has been berry, berry good to me.

Maybe I'll find some gold treasures along the Inca Trail.

[tsptalk]

I guess Goldman Sachs covered their short position on gold. They are not saying they are bullish on gold now, but they said the 10% gain in their position was enough.

[Bullitt]

Played contrarian and decided to start a run at the miners this week. Will purchase more if it goes lower. Hoping for at least a 9-12 month holding period.

[Birchtree]

I've been dollar cost averaging into GDXJ and GFI the last couple weeks and will continue with that strategy until gold hits $2000.00.

[bmneveu]

Anyone buying Gold down here below $1,400?

[ILoveTDs]

Just bought some silver

[tsptalk]

Anyone buying Gold down here below $1,400?
Ugly chart - unless we see a double "W" bottom.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/051613a.gif

[tsptalk]

Ugly chart - unless we see a double "W" bottom.


http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/052013a.gif

[Birchtree]

I continue to nibble on GFI and GDXJ because I'm crazy.

[ContrarianJeff]

I'm crazy too. I bought some GDXJ yesterday morning, but I'm going to dump it if it makes new lows. Holding onto gold miners is not for the faint of heart.

[jonfresno]

I was playing with AUY for a few months, got a nice run up, sold it, then thought I was buying it back low at $13 - then it sank another 20%. Hoping I'm patient enough to recoup the loss.

[jonfresno]

I'm crazy too. I bought some GDXJ yesterday morning, but I'm going to dump it if it makes new lows. Holding onto gold miners is not for the faint of heart.

Before you sell it, check out this article about Soros:
Soros Reports Over $239mm In Gold Positions, Buys $25mm In Call Options On Juniors | Bull Market Thinking (http://bullmarketthinking.com/soros-reports-over-239mm-in-gold-positions-buys-25mm-in-call-options-on-juniors/)

[ContrarianJeff]

Before you sell it, check out this article about Soros:
Soros Reports Over $239mm In Gold Positions, Buys $25mm In Call Options On Juniors | Bull Market Thinking (http://bullmarketthinking.com/soros-reports-over-239mm-in-gold-positions-buys-25mm-in-call-options-on-juniors/)

Interesting. Thanks for the link. But just being honest, I've seen this type of thing from gold bugs for years. There is always a good reason why gold and miners should go up. Always. And then they just keep falling. Trading/investing in gold and miners can make you poor in a hurry. Because I prefer to buy low (and sell high), I like doing a little bottom fishing in beaten down sectors--especially when sentiment is at all-time lows (like it is with gold and miners right now). But I've lost more money trying to make trades in gold/miners than I care to count. Even when gold has been on a tear, miners have lagged. A lot of miners are near their 2008 lows, even though (I think) gold has more than doubled since that time. If you look at a chart of GDX or GDXJ, you'll see that shares of miners are going to have double and even triple before getting back to 2011 levels. Maybe even more incredible is the fact that GDXJ is going to have to rise by 50% or more just to get where it was in March and the first half of April. If yesterday was a meaningful bottom in the miners, then I'm going to hold on to these shares (GDXJ and NEM) for a while (and hopefully make a decent chunk of change). But I have no problem selling for a loss (hopefully a small one) and living to see another day. I guess I'm too much a wimp--my stomach can't take the way the miners, in a bear market, often drop 5% to 10% on a regular basis. :)

[MrBowl]

I'm not going to buy any gold, but I might get my shovel and sluice and jump in the river and dig some up.

Who am I kidding :blink: I used to do that 20 years ago (I have about half an ounce), but 2 back surgeries in the past 6 years means I can only mine in my dreams and memories.

I looked into selling that gold last fall when the price was in the $1650 range. The old rules still hold - you buy at a premium+ and you sell at a heavy discount.

If you invest in mining companies you are subject to performance mistakes of the company and sentiment of the group by investors. I think I'll just stick to the GLD when the time comes to buy.

[Birchtree]

6 Reasons Why Gold Stocks will Begin a Huge Rally | Jordan Roy-Byrne | Safehaven.com (http://www.safehaven.com/article/29882/6-reasons-why-gold-stocks-will-begin-a-huge-rally)

[Bullitt]

Not for nothing but there's always a bullish article on gold to be found somewhere.

Soros is probably hedging those calls with a short sale somewhere else. You don't just go all in on a one side bet when you run a hedge fund.

Use ETF's with metals because with individual miners you're playing lotto. GDX and GDXJ at 60% of their 200 DMA show how out of favor they are with main street today.

[Frixxxx]

Thought this article was good, gold based, but then gives a little insight on how money works, i.e. "Bank reserves are in effect embryonic money that hasn't been born yet."

CNBC Article - Full (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-rallied-years-misunderstanding-021935344.html)

[Warrenlm]

Gold Dots seem to always hold their value and spike in certain situations.

[Lazy2000]

Any thoughts on gold? Late spring is supposed to be the turning point for gold. It seems analysts are still waiting for something to happen.

New up phase for gold? - MarketWatch (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-up-phase-for-gold-2013-06-13)

[Birchtree]

I continue to dollar cost average into two ETFs - GDXJ and GFI. I use them as a place to store cash. No intention of making any money on them for several years forward.

[tsptalk]

Gold sentiment is very bearish - probably a sign that the lows are in, or close to being in.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/061413a.gif

[Lazy2000]

Could you explain how you read those two charts and your analysis of them? Thanks.

[tsptalk]

Basically, the lower the sentiment, the more likely these folks don't own gold (either sold or never owned). The lower it goes, the fewer people that are left to sell. Theoretically, if everyone was bearish on gold, it means there would only be one place for it to go since there would be no one left to sell.

Sentiment in a contrarian indicator when at extremes, and this chart indicates a pretty bearish extreme reading - which is bullish.

[Lazy2000]

Thank you for the analysis. It helped me make a decision.

[Birchtree]

Contrarian Gold Stocks 2 | Adam Hamilton | Safehaven.com (http://www.safehaven.com/article/30155/contrarian-gold-stocks-2)

[law87]

Basically, the lower the sentiment, the more likely these folks don't own gold (either sold or never owned). The lower it goes, the fewer people that are left to sell. Theoretically, if everyone was bearish on gold, it means there would only be one place for it to go since there would be no one left to sell.

Sentiment in a contrarian indicator when at extremes, and this chart indicates a pretty bearish extreme reading - which is bullish.

think the fed sold all that gold back when it was 1800 and now slowly buying it back, setting up for a market crash? Feel like a conspiracy to me.

[Lazy2000]

Birchtree, didn't you say fear is the best indicator to buy?

Downward-sloping channel means don (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/downward-sloping-channel-means-no-go-for-gold-2013-06-14)

[bmneveu]

Gold down $75 today, settling around $1300

[law87]

Gold down $75 today, settling around $1300

GLD 52 week low

[tsptalk]

Yeah, it broke below a triple bottom. Kind of a surprise - or a "fake out"? Also a surprise to see gold, stocks, and bonds all down sharply.

[bmneveu]

Yeah, it broke below a triple bottom. Kind of a surprise - or a "fake out"? Also a surprise to see gold, stocks, and bonds all down sharply.

One of those 3 has to be a fake out I would think. I can't imagine the whole world moving to cash right now.

[Valkyrie]

silver is the buy not gold. maximize the leverage. junk silver, kenndy's, silver rounds, and canadian silver coins

[MrJohnRoss]

I believe you can make money in this sector when three things happen: When it's cheap, hated, and starting an uptrend.

I think we're getting close to the "puking" stage. It's becoming so hated that it's being dumped at any cost (or loss).

Watch for a wash-out bottom to form, and then an uptrend to begin. This could take weeks, maybe months, but could be a good place to begin nibbling for some very good gains.

[RealMoneyIssues]

Ken had to start his own thread, he is so special... ;)

$1,200 was my number to look for. I wasn't expecting gold to lose 1/3 of its value so fast...

I may have to consider some actual gold if it stays down here for a little while. Might dabble in GLD too :D

[jkenjohnson]

Ken had to start his own thread, he is so special... ;)

$1,200 was my number to look for. I wasn't expecting gold to lose 1/3 of its value so fast...

I may have to consider some actual gold if it stays down here for a little while. Might dabble in GLD too :D

I hadn't seen this or I would not have posted another thread. Can't post in my own account talk bcause it was closed. :D

[RealMoneyIssues]

I hadn't seen this or I would not have posted another thread. Can't post in my own account talk bcause it was closed. :D

Yeah, I know. I just had to rib you about it.

What are you going to do?

[Bullitt]

Big buying by a Director at FCX in the past few weeks.

1 million shares purchased indirectly since 8/1. Indirect purchases generally means for family members, ie: kids gift fund, etc.

FCX Insider Transactions | Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Stock - Yahoo! Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=FCX+Insider+Transactions)

[Birchtree]

I've been nibbling on GDXJ and GFI for my future.

[MrJohnRoss]

In answer to the question of the thread: Not yet. Take a look at a 5 year chart of gold on a weekly basis. It had an amazing run from $681 to $1923, until the peak in Aug of 2011. Since then, it's fallen almost exactly to the 61.8% fibonacci line this June. After a brief run-up, (coincidentally, right up to the 38% line), gold has reversed direction. I would not be surprised to see a re-test of the 1155 - 1179 area. You may want to wait for a better entry point at that juncture, and look for an upturn in the Stochastics for confirmation of an uptrend.


25540

[tsptalk]

Gold is down $31 on Fed minutes over taper talk, but the chart has been pointing down for some time. Currently ~ 1243, I can see 1075 as a eventual downside target if it's current H&S breaks down, which intraday, it has.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/112013a.gif

[alevin]

I'm watching, not buying-yet. don't own any whatsoever-yet. diversification-still working that part out, may move an ancient small ira into a pm ira at some point this next year.

[Birchtree]

Inflation will return at some point so buying gold when it's no longer liked will eventually be very profitable once again. I nibble on GDXJ and GFI.

[Birchtree]

"What is hard to find is the type of investor who has the guts to take advantage of these opportunities. You're either a contrarian or you're a victim."

The Greatest Opportunity in 30 Years | Jeff Clark | Safehaven.com (http://www.safehaven.com/article/31866/the-greatest-opportunity-in-30-years)

[rktect1]

Im waiting for under $900

[Birchtree]

I'm afraid Hell will burn out before you see $900 again - but you're welcomed to wait.

[tsptalk]

I don't know. There could be a emotional sell-off once they start tapering QE, but it will be a good buying opp. in my opinion. As I said in a previous post, 1075 looks like the initial H&S target and if the fear kicks in $900 is not out of the question, but I don't know if I'd wait that long.

[tsptalk]

From the folks who gave us that 1928-1929 / 2013-2014 market chart comparison, they are doing something similar with gold and the 2006-2009 market chart.

Gold is Following in Stock Market's 2009 Footsteps - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial (http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/gold_is_following_in_stock_markets_2009_footsteps/)

http://www.mcoscillator.com/data/charts/weekly/Gold_vs_2009_market_bottom_1.gif


Just reporting. Don't shoot the messenger.

[MrJohnRoss]

From the folks who gave us that 1928-1929 / 2013-2014 market chart comparison, they are doing something similar with gold and the 2006-2009 market chart.

Gold is Following in Stock Market's 2009 Footsteps - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial (http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/gold_is_following_in_stock_markets_2009_footsteps/)

http://www.mcoscillator.com/data/charts/weekly/Gold_vs_2009_market_bottom_1.gif


Just reporting. Don't shoot the messenger.

Where's my gun? :nuts:

All joking aside, that is a purdy steep cliff that gold's been going down. If nothing else, we're seeing a dead cat bounce. My gut instinct is that we're at or near the lows for a while. Good time to take a speculative position, IMHO.

[Birchtree]

I'm looking to add to my gold positions next week when I earn more margin. The question at hand is do we think there will ever be any inflation again - well certainly. The Fed is counting on it. I've got plenty of time to wait.

[tsptalk]

A nice little breakout in gold and gold miners this morning. Looks good, but those gaps will probably want to get filled before too much more upside.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/021014a.gif

[tsptalk]

Gold and the dollar are both filling gaps today. The combo looks bullish for gold. I'm adding today. (JNUG - Be careful... it's a wild one).

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/030414c.gif

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/030414b.gif

[tsptalk]

After getting lucky and selling some JNUG above 41 a couple of days ago in one of my accounts (unfortunately holding onto a lot too in another account) I added a little yesterday and today am back to a full position.

The bottom of that gap is my last straw for support (27.5) and a good risk / reward play if I am able to get out near 27. Sometimes the gap opens are so large on gold and gold related ETFs, that you don't always get out where you wanted.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/jnug1.gif


I like the look of the pullback in gold and it "should" hold here. Should the 200-day EMA fail for more than a day, I will have to get out of all gold related long positions.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/gld2.gif


http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/gdx2.gif

[WhoDey]

Thinking about it ... using same argument as what you posted. I'm nervous, however, in how price will react later this afternoon.

[tsptalk]

Ouch! Gold is now down 22 in front of the Fed decision. Someone is trying to scare investors / traders out and it seems to be working, although the GLD is still above the 200-day EMA.

[WhoDey]

Fasten your seat belt.

[tsptalk]

The dollar spikes on Fed decision, initially pushing stocks, bonds, and gold down.

[tsptalk]

Shhh! Don't tell anyone. It's a secret...

Gold is flashing a secret buy indicator | Watch the video - Yahoo Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/video/gold-flashing-secret-buy-indicator-210022567.html)

[tsptalk]

Looks like a long-term pivot point for gold.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/062714b.gif

[jkenjohnson]

98% of those who voted on Market Watch are bullish on gold. I believe the SS would consider that as a sell signal if it works for gold and equities?

[tsptalk]

Interesting. I thought there was bearish sentiment on gold. Good to know.

[nnuut]

No I don't buy GOLD, I'm lucky to be able to buy mixer!29286

[tsptalk]

Gold was down sharply after the jobs report this morning, but it's starting to rebound. The 200-day average has been holding strong since the big move higher a couple of weeks ago. I'm a little concerned about that big open gap, but as long as the 200-day EMA holds, I like gold.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/070314b.gif

[Weather]

I'll add to my position @$123.

[tsptalk]

Another day of gold testing the 200-day EMA. So far it has a nice positive reversal bar, but let's see how it closes. It looks like it wants to go higher, but if the 200 EMA fails, it could slam down hard.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/070714b.gif

[tsptalk]

Gold is getting pounded today - down about $30 oz.

The GLD is trying to hang onto the 50-day EMA after holding the 200 EMA for over 3 weeks. A large open gap has been looming near 123.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/071414a.gif


The GDX miners are down in unison but the bullish chart seems to be trying to hang on...

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/071414b.gif

Interesting situation.

[jpcavin]

Interesting strategy
Where Are Prices Heading In Gold And How I Would Trade DUST/NUGT Using The Teeter/Totter Approach - Robert Edwards | Seeking Alpha (http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/6143431-robert-edwards/3058175-where-are-prices-heading-in-gold-and-how-i-would-trade-dust-nugt-using-the-teeter-totter-approach)

[tsptalk]

Gold falls, silver drops on dragging oil prices, strong dollar - The Economic Times (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/gold-falls-silver-drops-on-dragging-oil-prices-strong-dollar/articleshow/45314171.cms)

[MrJohnRoss]

Gold Miner ETF Suffers Biggest One-Day Loss in Over a Year (http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2014/11/28/gold-miner-etf-suffers-biggest-one-day-loss-in-over-a-year/?mod=BOL_hp_blog_fof)

[tsptalk]

Ouch! I didn't even see that yesterday.

[bmneveu]

Roughly $1 over spot for an ounce of gold. Doesn't get any cheaper than that. 6 hours left on the sale. Over 2100 purchases in last 24 hours.

1 oz Pamp Suisse Gold Bar New Design in Assay SKU 84698 | eBay (http://www.ebay.com/itm/1-oz-Pamp-Suisse-Gold-Bar-New-Design-In-Assay-SKU-84698/121417276792?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item1c45089d78)